Countering Iran’s Destabilizing Actions in the Middle East

8202019 Countering Iranrsquos Destabilizing Actions in the Middle East

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullcountering-irans-destabilizing-actions-in-the-middle-east 17

1 Center for American Progress | Countering Iranrsquos Destabilizing Actions in the Middle East

Countering Iranrsquos Destabilizing

Actions in the Middle EastBy Peter Juul Brian Katulis and Shlomo Brom July 17 2015

Te newly negoiaed nuclear agreemen wih Iran sill has o be reviewed by Congress

bu i offers he Unied Saes and is allies he hisoric opporuniy o resrain ehranrsquos

nuclear program and preven he counry rom acquiring a nuclear weapon or a leas

he nex decade1 Tis agreemen is vial o US naional securiy bu i is imporan

o recognize ha i has a specific purpose reining in Iranrsquos nuclear program I doesno address he res o Iranrsquos malicious inernaional behavior simply because i is no

inended o do so

Accordingly he Unied Saes and is close parners in he Middle Eas and Europe should

ake acive seps o crack down on Iranrsquos abiliy o omen chaos in he region991252and he

Obama adminisraion should lead he way Te nuclear agreemen was a necessary sep

o mos effecively block Iranrsquos pahways o a nuclear weapon bu i is unlikely o change

Iranrsquos bad behavior991252which in urn is causing grea apprehension among he Unied

Saesrsquo allies in he region By working ogeher wih a coheren sraegy o couner Iranian

subversion he Unied Saes and is parners are capable o meeing his challenge

Iranrsquos destabilizing behavior

Iranrsquos subversion and proxy nework is vas sreching geographically rom Lain

America o Aghanisan2 Tis nework conducs errorism organizes and suppors

secarian miliias and generally omens insabiliy rom Argenina o Iraq Tese acivi-

ies do no cos ehran much financially991252suppor or boh Hezbollah and he Assad

regime in Syria is esimaed o have cos Iran less han $10 billion las year3991252bu hey

are sufficien o sow chaos in he Middle Eas and beyond

ehran has hree main organizaions hrough which i spreads regional insabiliy and

secarian srie he Islamic Revoluionary Guard Corps991252Quds Force or IRGC-QF

he Iranian Minisry o Inelligence and Securiy and Lebanese Hezbollah4 Tough he

US Sae Deparmen idenifies he Quds Force as ldquohe regimersquos primary mechanism

or culivaing and supporing erroriss abroadrdquo5 all hree organizaions work ogeher

o urher Iranian ineress in he Middle Eas




ehranrsquos fingerprins can be seen on virually all o he regionrsquos conflics I supplies mis-

siles and rockes o Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in he Palesinian erriories which

are hen fired a Israel Iran supplies he Assad regime wih money Iranian roops and a

supply o oreign Shia miliiamen and backs secarian miliias in Iraq ha undermine he

auhoriy o he governmen in Baghdad More recenly ehran has been accused o sup-

plying arms o he Houhi rebels who have seized conrol o much o Yemen 6

In all Iran has creaed an impressive nework o omen insabiliy across he Middle

Eas ehran backs milian groups rom Palesine o Iraq and Lebanon o Yemen wih

arms raining and unds Tis suppor invariably makes hese milian groups more

effecive and worsens exising conflics991252ofen by sharpening heir secarian edges

Counering his web o Iranian proxies991252and he chaos i creaes991252remains a core

American ineres in he Middle Eas

Policy options

Tere are no silver bulles o bring down Iranrsquos nework o regional insabiliy

Counering Iranrsquos malignan regional behavior will insead require a series o acions

rom boh he Unied Saes and is Middle Easern parners Policymakers should be

modes in heir expecaions Te overall goal o he Unied Saes and is regional par-

ners should be o degrade and disrup Iranrsquos effor o desabilize he Middle Eas raher

han deea i ourigh

Seps he Unied Saes and is regional parners can ake o couner Iranian meddling in

he Middle Eas include he ollowing recommendaions

Impose arms embargoes against Iranian proxies

In April he UN Securiy Council imposed an arms embargo agains he Iranian-

backed Houhi rebels in Yemen7 giving inernaional legiimacy o effors by he Unied

Saes and he Saudi-led coaliion o inerdic Iranian vessels suspeced o errying arms

o Yemen Similar arms embargoes could be imposed on oher Iranian proxies such as

Hezbollah Hamas and he Shia miliias fighing on behal o he Assad regime Should

he UN Securiy Council pass arms embargoes agains Iranian proxies he Unied

Saes and is regional parners would have he auhoriy and legiimacy o inercep

suspeced Iranian arms shipmens beore hey reach heir desinaions I may prove

impossible or he UN Securiy Council o approve all o hese embargoes bu he

Unied Saes could also build a mulinaional coaliion effor o ry o inerdic Iranian

weapons ransers




Robustly implement US-GCC summit agreements

Following he May 2015 Camp David summi beween he Unied Saes and Gul

Cooperaion Council or GCC saes he Whie House published an annex o he

summirsquos join saemen oulining areas o enhanced securiy cooperaion beween he

Unied Saes and he GCC8 Many o hese areas o cooperaion are relevan o effors

o couner Iranrsquos desrucive regional influence

Cybersecurity

US regional parners have already been he vicims o Iranian cyberatacks mos

noably a 2012 hack agains Saudi Aramco he Saudi sae oil company9 Te Unied

Saes already has cybersecuriy advisors embedded in relevan Saudi governmen

offices10 Te summi saemen annex calls on he Unied Saes o provide GCC saes

wih addiional cybersecuriy aid Te Unied Saes should push o insiuionalize

he cybersecuriy arrangemens oulined in he annex wih a view oward proecing

regional neworks agains Iranian cyberatacks Tis cybersecuriy orum should also be

exended o include regional parners beyond he GCC such as Jordan

Missile defense

A Camp David he GCC saes agreed o deepen heir cooperaion on ballisic missile

deense and he Unied Saes agreed o provide echnical assisance or he creaion o

a Gul ballisic missile early warning sysem Te Unied Saes should jump-sar his

process and accelerae improvemens o he GCCrsquos ballisic missile deense ineroper-

abiliy by expanding sales o he erminal High Aliude Area Deense or HAAD mis-

sile deense sysem beyond he Unied Arab Emiraes and Oman11 An inegraed Gul

missile deense sysem would also benefi rom he Inegraed Batle Command Sysem

or IBCS which will inegrae he separae elemens o he missile deense sysem andincrease heir effeciveness12 A robus Gul missile deense sysem can boh hedge

agains he Iranian ballisic missile hrea and serve as a symbol o Gul poliical uniy

Maritime security

Te GCC saes also agreed o ake greaer seps o share inormaion and inerdic

illici arms smuggling while he Unied Saes agreed o provide raining and aid o he

GCC on mariime securiy issues Tese seps should be aken as soon as possible wih

a primary ocus on prohibiing il lici Iranian arms shipmens o proxies Oher coun-

ries991252boh GCC neighbors and long-ime US allies rom ouside he region991252should

be inegraed ino effors o increase GCC mariime securiy capabiliies




Special operations training

Te Unied Saes pledged o examine opions o increase special operaions raining

wih is GCC parners Many GCC saes are building heir special operaions capabili-

ies rom scrach so a concered effor o rain and equip hese orces in GCC counries

will be required Bu his effor should avoid he creaion o a GCC equivalen o he

Quds Force Te las hing he Middle Eas needs is anoher sae-sponsored nework o

highly secarian proxy orces Insead American effors should concenrae on praci-cal skills991252such as conducing raids similar o he May 2015 operaion ha killed a

key Islamic Sae o Iraq and al-Sham or ISIS financier991252and ineroperabiliy wih

American special operaions orces13

Establish a strategic framework with Israel to counter Iran

Troughou he negoiaions process wih Iran Israel and he Unied Saes have missed

opporuniies o esablish a pos-agreemen sraegic ramework o couner Iranrsquos

regional influence because o he ricion caused by major disagreemens on he man-agemen o he negoiaions Now ha an agreemen has been reached and is likely o

move orward his ailure will become waer under he bridge Alhough i will be polii-

cally difficul he Unied Saes and Israel should come o a sraegic agreemen similar

o he one reached beween he Unied Saes and GCC saes a Camp David Tis

ramework need no be hashed ou a a high-level summi bu can insead be worked ou

by American and Israeli diplomas and deense officials I should cover he same areas

as he US-GCC summi communiqueacute and annex oulining he seps boh Israel and

he Unied Saes will ake o couner Iranrsquos negaive regional influence

As par o his ramework he Unied Saes should agree o provide Israel wih addi-ional capabiliies necessary o end off Iranian proxies Tese capabiliies991252such as

missile and rocke deense sysems similar o he Iron Dome991252should be unded as an

addiion o he curren $3 billion per year in miliary assisance Israel receives rom he

Unied Saes14

Bar IRGC-linked companies from regional air- and seaports

Regional parners can preven aircraf and ships rom IRGC-linked companies rom

enering heir erriories Tese companies serve as he logisical enablers o he IRGC

ransporing personnel weapons and cash in suppor o Iranian proxies around he

region While many IRGC-linked companies have been sancioned by he Unied

Saes15 hey sill operae in he airspace and waers o Americarsquos regional parners

For insance Mahan Air991252designaed as an IRGC enabler by he US reasury

Deparmen991252liss six GCC desinaions on is websie16 Regional parners paricu-




larly hose where IRGC-ied companies operae can crack down on hese enablers and

resric heir regional reedom o movemen Barring hese companies rom regional

airpors and seapors would hinder he IRGCrsquos abiliy o move personnel equipmen

and money around he region

Establish intelligence-sharing arrangements

ogeher he Unied Saes and is regional parners should esablish an inelligence

usion cell ocused on Iranrsquos suppor or proxies and is oher desabilizing behavior

in he region Te main goal o his cell should be o develop a unified picure o Iranrsquos

disrupive regional aciviies991252such as omening insabiliy inside GCC saes and

oher American regional parners991252o ensure ha he Unied Saes and is regional

parners all have he same overall picure o hese aciviies An expressed commimen

o counering hese aspecs o Iranrsquos regional policy would go along way oward easing

GCC apprehension over he poenial effecs o he nuclear deal As a firs prioriy his

cell should ocus on mapping he logisical neworks ha allow Iran o suppor proxiesaround he region and deermine heir weak spos

Support regional military action against Iranrsquos proxies and logistics network

when necessary

When necessary he Unied Saes should offer suppor o regional miliary acion

agains Iranian proxies and componens o he logisics nework ha suppors hem

such as Israeli srikes agains Hezbollah arms shipmens in Syria17 Regional parners

should ake he bulk o he risk in deploying orces on he ground while he UniedSaes should provide key suppor such as ransporaion and aerial supervision Tese

raids should be rare and only conduced on muual agreemen when based on solid

inelligence and afer a ull risk assessmen

Conclusion

Wih or wihou a nuclear agreemen Iran will coninue o presen a severe hrea o he

sabiliy and securiy o he Middle Eas991252primarily hrough is maerial and financial

suppor o proxies across he region Te Unied Saes and is regional parners will

conron his problem regardless and already should be preparing o couner Iran and is

proxies While i is unlikely ha he policies oulined here will ully deea Iranrsquos effors

in he region hey can consrain hose effors and impose higher coss on ehran han i

has previously paid




Equally imporan counering Iranrsquos policy o regional desabilizaion offers he oppor-

uniy or he Unied Saes and is regional parners991252rom Israel o he GCC991252o pull

closer ogeher afer he srain caused by nuclear negoiaions Raher han indulging in

unconsrucive behavior he Unied Saes and is parners can engage in a consrucive

effor o hal991252or a leas slow down991252Iranrsquos desrucive acions hroughou he Middle

Eas Vigorous acion o consrain Iranrsquos malign regional behavior offers he Unied

Saes and is regional parners a resh sar991252one hey should ake

Peter Juul is a Policy Analyst at the Center for American Progress Brian Katulis is a Senior

Fellow at the Center Shlomo Brom is a Visiting Fellow at the Center and previously served as

brigadier general in the Israel Defense Forces




Endnotes

1 European Union ldquoJoint Comprehensive Plan of Actionrdquo(2015) available at httpeeaseuropaeustatements-eeasdocsiran_agreementiran_joint-comprehensive-plan-of-action_enpdf

2 Scott Modell and David Asher ldquoPushback Counteringthe Iran Action Networkrdquo (Washington Center for a NewAmerican Security 2013) available at httpwwwcnasorg

sitesdefaultfilespublications-pdfCNAS_Pushback_Mod-ellAsher_0pdf

3 US Treasury Department National Terrorist Financing Risk Assessment 2015(2015) pp 17ndash18 Matthew Levitt andKelsey Segawa ldquoFindings from the State DepartmentrsquosAnnual Terrorism Report (Part 1) Hezbollah and Iranrdquo The Washington Institute for Near East Policy June 192015 available at httpwwwwashingtoninstituteorgpolicy-analysisviewfindings-from-the-state-departments-annual-terrorism-report-part-1-hezbolla Eli Lake ldquoIranSpends Billions to Prop Up Assadrdquo Bloomberg View June9 2015 available at httpwwwbloombergviewcomarticles2015-06-09iran-spends-billions-to-prop-up-assad

4 Modell and Asher ldquoPushbackrdquo pp 9ndash12

5 US State Department Country Reports on Terrorism 2014 (2015) Chapter 3 available at httpwwwstategovjctrlscrt2014239410htm

6 Jeffrey White ldquoA War Like No Other Israel vs Hezbollah in2015rdquo The Washington Institute for Near East Policy January29 2015 available at httpwwwwashingtoninstituteorgpolicy-analysisviewa-war-like-no-other-israel-vs-hezbol-lah-in-2015 Adam Entous Charles Levinson and Julian EBarnes ldquoHezbollah Upgrades Missile Threat to IsraelrdquoTheWall Street Journal January 2 2014 available at httpwwwwsjcomarticlesSB10001424052702304361604579290613920542386 Dan De Luce ldquoSyrian War Takes Rising Toll onHezbollahrdquo Foreign Policy July 9 2015 available at httpforeignpolicycom20150709syrian-war-takes-rising-toll-on-hezbollah J Dana Stuster ldquoThe Limits of Iranrsquos RegionalAmbitionsrdquo (Washington National Security Network2015) p 3 available at httpnsnetworkorgcmsassetsuploads201507StusterLimitsIransRegionalAmbitionspdf Philip Smyth ldquoThe Shiite Jihad in Syria and Its RegionalEffectsrdquo (Washington The Washington Institute for Near EastPolicy 2015) available at httpswwwwashingtoninstituteorguploadsDocumentspubsPolicyFocus138-v3pdf John

Ismay ldquoThe Most Lethal Weapons Americ ans Faced in IraqrdquoNew York Times At War Blog October 18 2013 availableat httpatwarblogsnytimescom20131018the-most-lethal-weapon-americans-faced-in-iraq Susannah GeorgeldquoBreaking Badrrdquo Foreign Policy November 6 2014 availableat httpforeignpolicycom20141106breaking-badrKirk H Sowell ldquoAfter Ramadi Militias in the LeadrdquoSadaJuly 1 2015 available at httpcarnegieendowmentorgsada20150701after-ramadi-militias-in-leadibb8 StuartWiner ldquoIran boasts of rocket aid to Palestinians Hezbollahrdquo The Times of Israel February 3 2015 available at httpwwwtimesofisraelcomiran-boasts-of-rocket-aid-to-pales-tinians-hezbollah Yara Bayoumy and Mohammed GhobarildquoIranian support seen as crucial for Yemenrsquos Houthisrdquo Re-uters December 15 2014 available at httpwwwreuterscomarticle20141215us-yemen-houthis-iran-insight-idUSKBN0JT17A20141215

7 Somini Sengupta ldquoUN Security Council Bans Sales of Armsto Houthi Fighters in Yemenrdquo The New York Times April 142015 available at httpwwwnytimescom20150415

worldmiddleeastyemen-houthis-saudi-airstrikes-arms-embargohtml

8 The White House ldquoAnnex to US-Gulf Cooperation CouncilCamp David Joint Statementrdquo Press release May 14 2015available at httpswwwwhitehousegovthe-press-of-fice20150514annex-us-gulf-cooperation-council-camp-david-joint-statement

9 Nicole Perlroth ldquoIn Cyberattack on Saudi Firm US Sees IranFiring Backrdquo The New York Times October 23 2012 availableat httpwwwnytimescom20121024businessglobalcyberattack-on-saudi-oil-firm-disquiets-ushtml

10 Christopher M Blanchard ldquoSaudi Arabia Backgroundand US Relationsrdquo (Washington Congressional ResearchService 2015) p 13 available at httpfasorgsgpcrsmid-eastRL33533pdf

11 Andrea Shalal-Esa ldquoUS clears sale of Lockheed missiledefense system to UAE Qatarrdquo Reuters November 6 2012available at httpwwwreuterscomarticle20121106us-lockheed-missiles-mideast-idUSBRE8A507J20121106 United Press International ldquoOman to buy $21B Raytheonmissile systemrdquo May 21 2013 available at httpwwwupicomBusiness_NewsSecurity-Industry20130521Oman-to-buy-21B-Raytheon-missile-system72381369166633 Jeremy Binnie ldquoIDEX 2015 Saudi Qatari THAAD contracts inthe pipelinerdquo IHS Janersquos Defence Weekly February 24 2015available at httpwwwjanescomarticle49344idex-2015-saudi-qatari-thaad-contracts-in-the-pipeline

12 Richard Tomkins ldquoNorthroprsquos battle command systembrings down ballistic missile targetrdquo United Press Inter-national May 28 2015 available at httpwwwupicomBusiness_NewsSecurity-Industry20150528Northrops-battle-command-system-brings-down-ballistic-missile-

target7741432840655

13 Barbara Starr Laura Smith-Spark and Ray Sanchez ldquoAbuSayyaf key ISIS figure in Syria killed in US raidrdquo CNN May17 2015 available at httpwwwcnncom20150516mid-dleeastsyria-isis-us-raid

14 Julie Hirschfield Davis and Matthew Rosenberg ldquoUS Offersto Help Israel Bolster Defenses Yet Iran Nuclear Deal LeavesUneasy Allyrdquo The New York Times July 15 2015 available athttpwwwnytimescom20150716worldmiddleeastus-offers-to-help-israel-bolster-defenses-yet-nuclear-deal-leaves-ally-uneasyhtml

15 Jay Solomon ldquoUS Sanctions Triggered by Plane Sale toIranrsquos Mahan Airrdquo The Wall Street Journal May 21 2015available at httpwwwwsjcomarticlesu-s-sanctions-triggered-by-plane-sale-to-irans-mahan-air-1432250073 Rick Gladstone ldquoSales to Mahan Air Blacklisted by US HangOver Iran Talksrdquo The New York Times June 9 2015 available

at httpwwwnytimescom20150610worldmiddleeastsales-to-mahan-air-blacklisted-by-us-hang-over-iran-talkshtml US Treasury Department ldquoTreasury AnnouncesNew Sanctions Against Iranrdquo Press release May 31 2013available at httpwwwtreasurygovpress-centerpress-releasesPagesjl1965aspx US Treasury DepartmentldquoTreasury Designates Iranian Commercial Airline Linked toIranrsquos Support for Terrorismrdquo Press release October 12 2011available at httpwwwtreasurygovpress-centerpress-releasesPagestg1322aspx

16 US Treasury Department ldquoTreasury Designates IranianCommercial Airline Linked to Iranrsquos Support for TerrorismrdquoMahan Air ldquoOur Route Networkrdquo available at httpwwwmahanaeroendestinationsroute-network (last accessedJuly 2015)

17 Jack Khoury Barak Ravid and Gili Cohen ldquoReport Israelstrikes Syrian military bases Hezbollah targets near Syria-Lebanon borderrdquo Haaretz April 25 2015 available at httpwwwhaaretzcomnewsdiplomacy-defense1653448




ehranrsquos fingerprins can be seen on virually all o he regionrsquos conflics I supplies mis-

siles and rockes o Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in he Palesinian erriories which

are hen fired a Israel Iran supplies he Assad regime wih money Iranian roops and a

supply o oreign Shia miliiamen and backs secarian miliias in Iraq ha undermine he

auhoriy o he governmen in Baghdad More recenly ehran has been accused o sup-

plying arms o he Houhi rebels who have seized conrol o much o Yemen 6

In all Iran has creaed an impressive nework o omen insabiliy across he Middle

Eas ehran backs milian groups rom Palesine o Iraq and Lebanon o Yemen wih

arms raining and unds Tis suppor invariably makes hese milian groups more

effecive and worsens exising conflics991252ofen by sharpening heir secarian edges

Counering his web o Iranian proxies991252and he chaos i creaes991252remains a core

American ineres in he Middle Eas

Policy options

Tere are no silver bulles o bring down Iranrsquos nework o regional insabiliy

Counering Iranrsquos malignan regional behavior will insead require a series o acions

rom boh he Unied Saes and is Middle Easern parners Policymakers should be

modes in heir expecaions Te overall goal o he Unied Saes and is regional par-

ners should be o degrade and disrup Iranrsquos effor o desabilize he Middle Eas raher

han deea i ourigh

Seps he Unied Saes and is regional parners can ake o couner Iranian meddling in

he Middle Eas include he ollowing recommendaions

Impose arms embargoes against Iranian proxies

In April he UN Securiy Council imposed an arms embargo agains he Iranian-

backed Houhi rebels in Yemen7 giving inernaional legiimacy o effors by he Unied

Saes and he Saudi-led coaliion o inerdic Iranian vessels suspeced o errying arms

o Yemen Similar arms embargoes could be imposed on oher Iranian proxies such as

Hezbollah Hamas and he Shia miliias fighing on behal o he Assad regime Should

he UN Securiy Council pass arms embargoes agains Iranian proxies he Unied

Saes and is regional parners would have he auhoriy and legiimacy o inercep

suspeced Iranian arms shipmens beore hey reach heir desinaions I may prove

impossible or he UN Securiy Council o approve all o hese embargoes bu he

Unied Saes could also build a mulinaional coaliion effor o ry o inerdic Iranian

weapons ransers










Cybersecurity









Missile defense










Maritime security

































Unied Saes14



























when necessary







Conclusion







has previously paid

















Endnotes
















target7741432840655
















Cybersecurity









Missile defense










Maritime security

































Unied Saes14



























when necessary







Conclusion







has previously paid

















Endnotes
















target7741432840655

































Unied Saes14



























when necessary







Conclusion







has previously paid

















Endnotes
















target7741432840655

























when necessary







Conclusion







has previously paid

















Endnotes
















target7741432840655























Endnotes
















target7741432840655










Endnotes
















target7741432840655





