Upload
others
View
2
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
1
COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overview
Jan D. Freitag
Senior Vice President
2
www.hotelnewsnow.com Click on “Hotel Data Presentations”
3
Agenda
• Total US Review
• Chain Scale Review
• Upper Midscale / Midscale Deep Dive
• 2012 / 2013 Forecast
4
Total US Review
5
Supply / Demand Imbalance Drove Last 12 Months
% Change
• Room Supply* 1.8 bn 0.4%
• Room Demand* 1.06 bn 4.6%
• Occupancy 60.3% 4.2%
• A.D.R. $102 3.8%
• RevPAR $61 8.2%
• Room Revenue* $109 bn 8.7%
12 Months Ending February 2012, Total US Results * All Time High
6
Jan + Feb 2012:
Highest Demand - EVER
(150 Million Rooms Sold)
7
-8
-4
0
4
8
1990 2000 2010
Supply Demand
Demand Growth Expected To Revert To Mean. Supply Not An Issue
-6.9%
-0.9%
- 4.7%
*Total US, Supply & Demand % Change, 12 MMA 1990 – 2/2012
8.0%
4.6%
8
-10
-5
0
5
1990 2000 2010
Demand ADR
ADR Rebound Trajectory Bodes Well for 2012
-6.9%
-4.7%
-0.9%
-4.6%
-0.2%
-8.7%
3.8%
*Total US, ADR & Demand % Change, 12 MMA 1990 – 2/2012
9
ADR Discounting at Twice The Speed of ADR Increases
95
100
105
110
2008 2009 2010 2011
*Total US, ADR $, 12 MMA 2007 - 2011
Apr ‘10 $97
Sept ‘08 $108
Dec ‘11 $102
+4.6%
-10%
19 Months
19 Months
10
3.1
2.6
3.9
2.9
4.1
3.7
4.0
3.5
4.1 4.0
4.4
3.5
3.9 4.0
3.5 3.6
* Total US, ADR $ % Change, by Month, 1/11 – 2/12, by Week 3/3 – 3/10
ADRs Are Growing (But Comps Get More Difficult)
3/3 3/10 2/12 1/11 4/11 7/11
Weekly data 10/11 1/12
11
Chain Scale Review
12
Strong Demand Growth, Supply Not An Issue
1.1 1.5
1.8 1.9
0.8
0.2
6.2
4.5
5.9
6.7
4.6
3.5
Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy
Supply
Demand
*Supply / Demand % Change, by Scale, 12 Months Ending 2/12 Upper Mid / Midscale: Same Store Basis to Account for Best Western Reclassification
13
Entering 2nd Stage Of Recovery Where ADR % > OCC %
5.1
2.9
4.0
4.7
3.7
3.3
5.2
3.6 4.0
3.0
2.2
2.9
Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy
Occupancy
ADR
*OCC / ADR % Change, by Scale, 12 Months Ending 2/12 Upper Mid / Midscale: Same Store Basis to Account for Best Western Reclassification
14
Upper End Sells 7 out of 10 Rooms Every Night
71.7
70.5 69.6
65.3
58.4 57.0
71.6
69.7 69.9
61.6
53.7 53.7
Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale*
Midscale* Economy
2007 12 Months end 2/12
*Absolute OCC %, by Scale, 2007 & 12 Months ending February 2012 Upper Mid / Midscale: Same Store Basis to Account for Best Western Reclassification
15
ADR Growth Is Strong – But Not Strong Enough (...yet)
$286
$159
$121
$94 $77
$54
$262
$148
$112 $94
$72
$51
Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale*
Midscale* Economy
2007
12 Months end 2/12
*Absolute ADR $, by Scale, 2007 & 12 Months ending February 2012 Upper Mid / Midscale: Same Store Basis to Account for Best Western Reclassification
16
Upper Midscale / Midscale – Deep Dive
17
Upper Midscale 3 Palms Holiday Inn Express
Ayres Holiday Inn Select Best Western Plus Home2 Suites by Hilton
Chase Suites Isle of Capri Clarion Key West Inns & Suites Comfort Inn Larkspur Landing
Comfort Suites Lexington Country Inn & Suites Night
Doubletree Club OHANA
Drury Inn Park Inn
Drury Inn & Suites Phoenix Inn Drury Lodge Ramada Plaza Drury Plaza Hotel Scanticon
Drury Suites Silver Cloud Fairfield Inn Sunspree Resorts
Golden Tulip Tryp by Wyndham Hampton Inn TownePlace Suites
Hampton Inn & Suites Westmark Holiday Inn Wyndham Garden Hotel
Xanterra
Midscale America`s Best Suites La Quinta Inn & Suites AmericInn MainStay Suites Baymont Inn & Suites Oak Tree Inn Best Western Quality Inn Cabot Lodge Ramada Candlewood Suites Red Lion ClubHouse Rode Inn Crossings by GrandStay Settle Inn Crystal Inn Shilo Inn GrandStay Residential Suites Signature Inn Hawthorn Suites by Wyndham Sleep Inn Heartland Inn Vagabond Inn Howard Johnson Vista
InnSuites Hotel Wingate by Wyndham Lakeview Yotel QQ
18
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12
OCC ADR
* Upper Midscale, OCC & ADR % Change, by Month, 1/10 – 2/12, same store basis
Upper Midscale Hotels: Recovery Part 2
19
Upper Mid: ADR Discounting Will Be Felt For Long Time
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
*Upper Midscale, ADR % Change, 12 MMA, 1/09 – 2/12, same store basis
May ‘10 $91
Nov ‘08 $97
Feb’12 $94
+3.7%
-7%
21 Months
18 Months
20
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12
OCC ADR
* Midscale, OCC & ADR % Change, by Month, 1/10 – 2/12
Midscale Hotels: Recovery Part 2 (???)
21
Midscale: ADR Discounting at Twice The Speed of ADR Increases
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
2009 2010 2011 2012
*Upper Midscale, ADR % Change, 12 MMA, 1/09 – 2/12, same store basis
Jan ‘11 $71.60
Jan ‘09 $76.60
Jan’12 $72
+2%
-8%
12 Months
24 Months
22
Weekday Occupancy Premium for Upper Midscale Hotels
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Upper Mid '11 Upper Mid '12
Midscale '11 Midscale '12
*Upper Midscale, & Midscale, WD OCC %, by Month, 2011 and YTD 2012, same store basis
23
Weekend Occupancy: Upper Midscale Advantage Diminishes
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Upper Mid '11 Upper Mid '12
Midscale '11 Midscale '12
*Upper Midscale, & Midscale, WE OCC %, by Month, 2011 and YTD 2012, same store basis
24
2011: Upper Midscale ADR Premium Erodes on Weekends
15
17
19
21
23
25
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Weekday $ Premium
Weekend $ Premium
*Upper Midscale ADR $ Premium over Midscale, WD & WE, by Month, 2011, same store basis
25
2012 / 2013 Forecast
26
Rooms Pipeline Still Not An Issue in 2012
Phase Dec 2011 Dec 2010 Dec 2007
In Construction 54 52 211
“Planned Pipeline” 254 265 204
Active Pipeline 308 317 415
*Total US Pipeline, in ‘000s of rooms, by Phase by Year Planned Pipeline includes projects in Final Planning and Planning phases Source: STR / McGraw-Hill Construction Dodge
27
Total United States Forecast 2012 / 2013 Key Performance Indicator % Change
2012 Forecast
2013 Forecast
Supply 0.8% 1.4%
Demand 1.3% 2.0%
Occupancy 0.5% 0.5%
ADR 3.8% 4.4%
RevPAR 4.3% 4.9%
28
Publicly Traded Company 2012 RevPAR Guidance Company Name Guidance 2012
Gaylord Hotels +3-6%
HOST Hotels & Resorts
Choice Hotels
DiamondRock Hospitality +4-6%
FelCor Lodging Trust
Sunstone Hotel Investors
Marriott International
LaSalle Hotel Properties +5-7%
Starwood Hotels
Wyndham Worldwide +5-8%
Chatham Lodging Trust
Hersha Hospitality +6-8%
Strategic Hotels
Chesapeake Lodging Trust +6.5–8.5%
Pebblebrook Hotel Trust +8-10%
29
Total United States Chain Scale Key Performance Indicator Outlook 2012F by Chain Scale
Chain Scale Occupancy
(% chg) ADR
(% chg) RevPAR (%chg)
Luxury 2.7% 4.7% 7.4%
Upper Upscale 0.1% 3.5% 3.6%
Upscale 2.0% 4.5% 6.6%
Upper Midscale -0.3% 3.7% 3.4%
Midscale 1.0% 0.8% 1.8%
Economy 0.7% 2.4% 3.1%
Independent -0.3% 3.4% 3.1%
Total United States 0.5% 3.8% 4.3%
30