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1 COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overview Jan D. Freitag Senior Vice President

COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overvie · 2012-03-19 · COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overview Jan D. Freitag ... Jan + Feb 2012: Highest Demand - EVER (150 Million Rooms Sold)

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Page 1: COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overvie · 2012-03-19 · COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overview Jan D. Freitag ... Jan + Feb 2012: Highest Demand - EVER (150 Million Rooms Sold)

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COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overview

Jan D. Freitag

Senior Vice President

Page 2: COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overvie · 2012-03-19 · COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overview Jan D. Freitag ... Jan + Feb 2012: Highest Demand - EVER (150 Million Rooms Sold)

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www.hotelnewsnow.com Click on “Hotel Data Presentations”

Page 3: COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overvie · 2012-03-19 · COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overview Jan D. Freitag ... Jan + Feb 2012: Highest Demand - EVER (150 Million Rooms Sold)

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Agenda

• Total US Review

• Chain Scale Review

• Upper Midscale / Midscale Deep Dive

• 2012 / 2013 Forecast

Page 4: COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overvie · 2012-03-19 · COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overview Jan D. Freitag ... Jan + Feb 2012: Highest Demand - EVER (150 Million Rooms Sold)

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Total US Review

Page 5: COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overvie · 2012-03-19 · COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overview Jan D. Freitag ... Jan + Feb 2012: Highest Demand - EVER (150 Million Rooms Sold)

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Supply / Demand Imbalance Drove Last 12 Months

% Change

• Room Supply* 1.8 bn 0.4%

• Room Demand* 1.06 bn 4.6%

• Occupancy 60.3% 4.2%

• A.D.R. $102 3.8%

• RevPAR $61 8.2%

• Room Revenue* $109 bn 8.7%

12 Months Ending February 2012, Total US Results * All Time High

Page 6: COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overvie · 2012-03-19 · COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overview Jan D. Freitag ... Jan + Feb 2012: Highest Demand - EVER (150 Million Rooms Sold)

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Jan + Feb 2012:

Highest Demand - EVER

(150 Million Rooms Sold)

Page 7: COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overvie · 2012-03-19 · COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overview Jan D. Freitag ... Jan + Feb 2012: Highest Demand - EVER (150 Million Rooms Sold)

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-8

-4

0

4

8

1990 2000 2010

Supply Demand

Demand Growth Expected To Revert To Mean. Supply Not An Issue

-6.9%

-0.9%

- 4.7%

*Total US, Supply & Demand % Change, 12 MMA 1990 – 2/2012

8.0%

4.6%

Page 8: COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overvie · 2012-03-19 · COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overview Jan D. Freitag ... Jan + Feb 2012: Highest Demand - EVER (150 Million Rooms Sold)

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-10

-5

0

5

1990 2000 2010

Demand ADR

ADR Rebound Trajectory Bodes Well for 2012

-6.9%

-4.7%

-0.9%

-4.6%

-0.2%

-8.7%

3.8%

*Total US, ADR & Demand % Change, 12 MMA 1990 – 2/2012

Page 9: COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overvie · 2012-03-19 · COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overview Jan D. Freitag ... Jan + Feb 2012: Highest Demand - EVER (150 Million Rooms Sold)

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ADR Discounting at Twice The Speed of ADR Increases

95

100

105

110

2008 2009 2010 2011

*Total US, ADR $, 12 MMA 2007 - 2011

Apr ‘10 $97

Sept ‘08 $108

Dec ‘11 $102

+4.6%

-10%

19 Months

19 Months

Page 10: COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overvie · 2012-03-19 · COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overview Jan D. Freitag ... Jan + Feb 2012: Highest Demand - EVER (150 Million Rooms Sold)

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3.1

2.6

3.9

2.9

4.1

3.7

4.0

3.5

4.1 4.0

4.4

3.5

3.9 4.0

3.5 3.6

* Total US, ADR $ % Change, by Month, 1/11 – 2/12, by Week 3/3 – 3/10

ADRs Are Growing (But Comps Get More Difficult)

3/3 3/10 2/12 1/11 4/11 7/11

Weekly data 10/11 1/12

Page 11: COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overvie · 2012-03-19 · COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overview Jan D. Freitag ... Jan + Feb 2012: Highest Demand - EVER (150 Million Rooms Sold)

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Chain Scale Review

Page 12: COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overvie · 2012-03-19 · COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overview Jan D. Freitag ... Jan + Feb 2012: Highest Demand - EVER (150 Million Rooms Sold)

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Strong Demand Growth, Supply Not An Issue

1.1 1.5

1.8 1.9

0.8

0.2

6.2

4.5

5.9

6.7

4.6

3.5

Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy

Supply

Demand

*Supply / Demand % Change, by Scale, 12 Months Ending 2/12 Upper Mid / Midscale: Same Store Basis to Account for Best Western Reclassification

Page 13: COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overvie · 2012-03-19 · COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overview Jan D. Freitag ... Jan + Feb 2012: Highest Demand - EVER (150 Million Rooms Sold)

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Entering 2nd Stage Of Recovery Where ADR % > OCC %

5.1

2.9

4.0

4.7

3.7

3.3

5.2

3.6 4.0

3.0

2.2

2.9

Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy

Occupancy

ADR

*OCC / ADR % Change, by Scale, 12 Months Ending 2/12 Upper Mid / Midscale: Same Store Basis to Account for Best Western Reclassification

Page 14: COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overvie · 2012-03-19 · COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overview Jan D. Freitag ... Jan + Feb 2012: Highest Demand - EVER (150 Million Rooms Sold)

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Upper End Sells 7 out of 10 Rooms Every Night

71.7

70.5 69.6

65.3

58.4 57.0

71.6

69.7 69.9

61.6

53.7 53.7

Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale*

Midscale* Economy

2007 12 Months end 2/12

*Absolute OCC %, by Scale, 2007 & 12 Months ending February 2012 Upper Mid / Midscale: Same Store Basis to Account for Best Western Reclassification

Page 15: COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overvie · 2012-03-19 · COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overview Jan D. Freitag ... Jan + Feb 2012: Highest Demand - EVER (150 Million Rooms Sold)

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ADR Growth Is Strong – But Not Strong Enough (...yet)

$286

$159

$121

$94 $77

$54

$262

$148

$112 $94

$72

$51

Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale*

Midscale* Economy

2007

12 Months end 2/12

*Absolute ADR $, by Scale, 2007 & 12 Months ending February 2012 Upper Mid / Midscale: Same Store Basis to Account for Best Western Reclassification

Page 16: COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overvie · 2012-03-19 · COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overview Jan D. Freitag ... Jan + Feb 2012: Highest Demand - EVER (150 Million Rooms Sold)

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Upper Midscale / Midscale – Deep Dive

Page 17: COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overvie · 2012-03-19 · COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overview Jan D. Freitag ... Jan + Feb 2012: Highest Demand - EVER (150 Million Rooms Sold)

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Upper Midscale 3 Palms Holiday Inn Express

Ayres Holiday Inn Select Best Western Plus Home2 Suites by Hilton

Chase Suites Isle of Capri Clarion Key West Inns & Suites Comfort Inn Larkspur Landing

Comfort Suites Lexington Country Inn & Suites Night

Doubletree Club OHANA

Drury Inn Park Inn

Drury Inn & Suites Phoenix Inn Drury Lodge Ramada Plaza Drury Plaza Hotel Scanticon

Drury Suites Silver Cloud Fairfield Inn Sunspree Resorts

Golden Tulip Tryp by Wyndham Hampton Inn TownePlace Suites

Hampton Inn & Suites Westmark Holiday Inn Wyndham Garden Hotel

Xanterra

Midscale America`s Best Suites La Quinta Inn & Suites AmericInn MainStay Suites Baymont Inn & Suites Oak Tree Inn Best Western Quality Inn Cabot Lodge Ramada Candlewood Suites Red Lion ClubHouse Rode Inn Crossings by GrandStay Settle Inn Crystal Inn Shilo Inn GrandStay Residential Suites Signature Inn Hawthorn Suites by Wyndham Sleep Inn Heartland Inn Vagabond Inn Howard Johnson Vista

InnSuites Hotel Wingate by Wyndham Lakeview Yotel QQ

Page 18: COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overvie · 2012-03-19 · COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overview Jan D. Freitag ... Jan + Feb 2012: Highest Demand - EVER (150 Million Rooms Sold)

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-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12

OCC ADR

* Upper Midscale, OCC & ADR % Change, by Month, 1/10 – 2/12, same store basis

Upper Midscale Hotels: Recovery Part 2

Page 19: COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overvie · 2012-03-19 · COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overview Jan D. Freitag ... Jan + Feb 2012: Highest Demand - EVER (150 Million Rooms Sold)

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Upper Mid: ADR Discounting Will Be Felt For Long Time

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

*Upper Midscale, ADR % Change, 12 MMA, 1/09 – 2/12, same store basis

May ‘10 $91

Nov ‘08 $97

Feb’12 $94

+3.7%

-7%

21 Months

18 Months

Page 20: COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overvie · 2012-03-19 · COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overview Jan D. Freitag ... Jan + Feb 2012: Highest Demand - EVER (150 Million Rooms Sold)

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-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12

OCC ADR

* Midscale, OCC & ADR % Change, by Month, 1/10 – 2/12

Midscale Hotels: Recovery Part 2 (???)

Page 21: COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overvie · 2012-03-19 · COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overview Jan D. Freitag ... Jan + Feb 2012: Highest Demand - EVER (150 Million Rooms Sold)

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Midscale: ADR Discounting at Twice The Speed of ADR Increases

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

2009 2010 2011 2012

*Upper Midscale, ADR % Change, 12 MMA, 1/09 – 2/12, same store basis

Jan ‘11 $71.60

Jan ‘09 $76.60

Jan’12 $72

+2%

-8%

12 Months

24 Months

Page 22: COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overvie · 2012-03-19 · COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overview Jan D. Freitag ... Jan + Feb 2012: Highest Demand - EVER (150 Million Rooms Sold)

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Weekday Occupancy Premium for Upper Midscale Hotels

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Upper Mid '11 Upper Mid '12

Midscale '11 Midscale '12

*Upper Midscale, & Midscale, WD OCC %, by Month, 2011 and YTD 2012, same store basis

Page 23: COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overvie · 2012-03-19 · COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overview Jan D. Freitag ... Jan + Feb 2012: Highest Demand - EVER (150 Million Rooms Sold)

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Weekend Occupancy: Upper Midscale Advantage Diminishes

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Upper Mid '11 Upper Mid '12

Midscale '11 Midscale '12

*Upper Midscale, & Midscale, WE OCC %, by Month, 2011 and YTD 2012, same store basis

Page 24: COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overvie · 2012-03-19 · COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overview Jan D. Freitag ... Jan + Feb 2012: Highest Demand - EVER (150 Million Rooms Sold)

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2011: Upper Midscale ADR Premium Erodes on Weekends

15

17

19

21

23

25

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Weekday $ Premium

Weekend $ Premium

*Upper Midscale ADR $ Premium over Midscale, WD & WE, by Month, 2011, same store basis

Page 25: COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overvie · 2012-03-19 · COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overview Jan D. Freitag ... Jan + Feb 2012: Highest Demand - EVER (150 Million Rooms Sold)

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2012 / 2013 Forecast

Page 26: COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overvie · 2012-03-19 · COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overview Jan D. Freitag ... Jan + Feb 2012: Highest Demand - EVER (150 Million Rooms Sold)

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Rooms Pipeline Still Not An Issue in 2012

Phase Dec 2011 Dec 2010 Dec 2007

In Construction 54 52 211

“Planned Pipeline” 254 265 204

Active Pipeline 308 317 415

*Total US Pipeline, in ‘000s of rooms, by Phase by Year Planned Pipeline includes projects in Final Planning and Planning phases Source: STR / McGraw-Hill Construction Dodge

Page 27: COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overvie · 2012-03-19 · COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overview Jan D. Freitag ... Jan + Feb 2012: Highest Demand - EVER (150 Million Rooms Sold)

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Total United States Forecast 2012 / 2013 Key Performance Indicator % Change

2012 Forecast

2013 Forecast

Supply 0.8% 1.4%

Demand 1.3% 2.0%

Occupancy 0.5% 0.5%

ADR 3.8% 4.4%

RevPAR 4.3% 4.9%

Page 28: COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overvie · 2012-03-19 · COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overview Jan D. Freitag ... Jan + Feb 2012: Highest Demand - EVER (150 Million Rooms Sold)

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Publicly Traded Company 2012 RevPAR Guidance Company Name Guidance 2012

Gaylord Hotels +3-6%

HOST Hotels & Resorts

Choice Hotels

DiamondRock Hospitality +4-6%

FelCor Lodging Trust

Sunstone Hotel Investors

Marriott International

LaSalle Hotel Properties +5-7%

Starwood Hotels

Wyndham Worldwide +5-8%

Chatham Lodging Trust

Hersha Hospitality +6-8%

Strategic Hotels

Chesapeake Lodging Trust +6.5–8.5%

Pebblebrook Hotel Trust +8-10%

Page 29: COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overvie · 2012-03-19 · COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overview Jan D. Freitag ... Jan + Feb 2012: Highest Demand - EVER (150 Million Rooms Sold)

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Total United States Chain Scale Key Performance Indicator Outlook 2012F by Chain Scale

Chain Scale Occupancy

(% chg) ADR

(% chg) RevPAR (%chg)

Luxury 2.7% 4.7% 7.4%

Upper Upscale 0.1% 3.5% 3.6%

Upscale 2.0% 4.5% 6.6%

Upper Midscale -0.3% 3.7% 3.4%

Midscale 1.0% 0.8% 1.8%

Economy 0.7% 2.4% 3.1%

Independent -0.3% 3.4% 3.1%

Total United States 0.5% 3.8% 4.3%

Page 30: COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overvie · 2012-03-19 · COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overview Jan D. Freitag ... Jan + Feb 2012: Highest Demand - EVER (150 Million Rooms Sold)

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