COULD IT HAPPEN HERE?

Michael Adams PresidentEnvironics Institute for Survey Research

Philanthropic Foundations of Canada2018 Conference – Connect. Create. Change.Toronto, ONOctober 16, 2018

Canada in the age of Trump and Brexit?

First, a little background . . .

My professional life has been dedicated to the study of Canada

in historical and comparative perspective, through the lens of

survey research

Which has led to the founding of the Environics Institute,and a series of books:- Sex in the Snow- Better Happy than Rich- Fire and Ice- American Backlash- Unlikely Utopia- Stayin’ Alive- Committing Sociology

- And now . . Could it Happen Here?

The story of Could It Happen Here? begins on the evening of November 8, 2016

CLINTON

232

TRUMP

306

Calling Mexicans ‘rapists’

Promising a wall along the US-Mexico border

Calling for a complete ban on Muslims entering the US

Calling for the arrest of undocumented immigrants

Promising to shut down Obama’s Dreamer program

✔

✔

✔

✔

✔

Leading up to his surprise victory, Donald Trump tapped into growing xenophobic populism by...

Meanwhile, turmoil in the Middle East and Africa has led to massive dislocation and migration of refugees into Europe

Which in turn contributed to the rise of xenophobic nationalism across the continent . . .

...as well as intolerance: don’t wear too many clothes on our beaches ladies!

Mean vote share of populist parties in European societies (1960s – 2010s)

Populism on the left and on the right has been on the rise in Europe for more than half a century

1600s – today: “Long assault” on Indigenous Peoples

1800s: Poor treatment of Irish migrants

1867 – 1967: Racist immigration policies

1930s: Anti-semitism (“None is too many”)

1940s: Internment of Japanese Canadians

More recently: Police profiling of racialised minorities

But Canada is no stranger to xenophobia

1967: Opening the door to point-based/colour blind immigration

1971: Canada becomes the first country to adopt ‘Multiculturalism’ as an official policy, reinforced by the Canadian Multiculturalism Act in 1988

Late 1970’s: Accepting 60,000 refugees from South-East Asia

2015: Truth and Reconciliation report and calls to action

2015/16: Welcoming over 40,000 Syrian refugees

However, the mid 1960s ushered in more progressive principles

and policies – reflecting the rapid evolution of Canadian values

But do average Canadians truly support immigration and the ideology of multiculturalism?

In recent decades there has been a sea change in Canadian public attitudes toward immigration

1977 – 2017

Focus Canada (2018)

Agree – Disagree: Immigration levels are too high

77 80 83 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 97 98 00 02 03 05 06 08 10 11 12 15 16 17 18

Agree Disagree

61

35

60

35

With the vast majority continuing to believe that the economic impact of immigrants is positive

Agree – Disagree: Economic impact of immigration is positive

Focus Canada (2018)

1993 - 2017

93 98 00 02 03 05 06 08 10 11 12 15 16 17 18

Agree Disagree

56

39

80

16

And a strong majority consistently reject the idea that immigrants take away jobs from other Canadians

1985 - 2015

85 89 93 94 97 98 00 02 03 05 06 08 10 11 12 15

Agree Disagree

54

36

67

30

Focus Canada (2015)

Agree – Disagree: Immigrants take away Canadian jobs

For the first time in 30 years, the plurality of Canadians now disagree that many refugee claimants are not legitimate

Agree – Disagree: Many refugee claimants are not legitimate

Focus Canada (2018)

1987 - 2017

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 97 98 00 02 03 05 06 08 10 11 12 15 16 17 18

Agree Disagree Neither/dk/na

79

13

45

38

8

17

Canadians now identify multiculturalism and diversity as a defining aspect of makes Canada unique

dk/na

Other

The North/Arctic

Hockey

Aboriginal peoples/culture

Bilingualism

Values

Tolerance

Political system

Universal health care

Natural resources

Peace/peacefulness

Weather/climate/cold

The people (non-specific)

Friendly/humble/nice people

Freedom/free country/democracy

Land/geography

Multiculturalism/diversity 43

17

14

11

10

7

7

6

6

5

4

3

3

2

1

1

9

7

What makes Canada unique? (unprompted mentions)

Focus Canada (2016)

As for immigrants, the vast majority identify more with Canada than their country of birth

Identify more

with Canada

78

Identify more

with country

of birth

Both equally Neither/

dk/na

78

13 127 77

3 2

2010 2012

Canadians on Citizenship (2012)

Immigrant identification with Canada vs. country of birth

2010 – 2012 Among Canadians born abroad

Native-born Canadians and immigrants both agree on the values that immigrants should adopt

Need to assimilate

Respect for other religions

Respect for the law

Tolerance for others

English and/or French fluency

Respect for Canada'shistory and culture

29

27

28

25

21

18

21

16

5

10

8

9

Immigrants

Native-born

What values are most important for immigrants to adopt? (unprompted mentions)

Trudeau Foundation Survey (2011)

2011

IPSOS Public Perspectives, 2018

Canada ranks 1st out of 25 countries in a recent “overall inclusiveness” index

However, the majority (albeit a declining proportion) of Canadians

believe that too many immigrants do not adopt Canadian values

Agree – Disagree: Too many immigrants do not adopt Canadian values

Focus Canada (2018)

1993 - 2017

93 94 97 99 00 02 03 05 06 08 10 11 12 15 16 17 18

Agree Disagree

72

23

51

43

In part because no Canadian value is more important than gender equality, including religious tolerance

Canada should be a country …

Where the practices of all religions are respected, provided they fall within the law

In which men and women are treated equally in all walks of life 92 7 1

67 23 9

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat/strongly disagree

Trudeau Foundation Survey (2012)

Lest we forget our recent history

The early Reform Party tapped into the Eastern establishment's progressive liberalism by giving voice to...

...opposition to relentless efforts to accommodate Quebec, increasing immigration and the ideology of

multiculturalism

In 2015, Stephen Harper insists Muslim women show their face at citizenship ceremonies, however...

...Zunera Ishaq asserts her Charter rights in court (and wins)

And in 2016, Kellie Leitch, co-author of the barbaric cultural practices

snitch line, launches her bid for the Conservative party leadership

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4msHDzO-GQ4

“If you are tired of feeling like we can’t discuss what our Canadian values are, then please help me to fight

back by making a donation.”

Newly-elected Ontario Premier Doug Ford questions the federal

government’s handling of irregular asylum seekers

And even more recently, the new Coalition Avenir Québec

government promises a new immigrant agenda

So while Canada is not immune to xenophobia, what is it that

protects us from a populist tsunami?

Even more remarkable is that in 2015 Canadians elected 46 foreign-born MPs, up from 42 in 2011

2015 Parliament – number of foreign-born elected MP’s, by party

92

184

99

934

44

2

10

0 1

1

Foreign-born MPs

Total number of MPs

45

34

25

38

On-reserve Large cities

FIRST NATIONS

29 30

39

52

Rural areas Large cities

MÉTIS

2011 2016

And beneath the radar, increasing numbers of Indigenous Peoples are choosing to live in our multicultural cities

Geographic Distribution of First Nation and Métis Identity Populations, 2001 and 2016

And when it comes to the

backlash to globalization and income inequality, Canada is less

vulnerable than than the USA and

many other countries

Canada is closer to Denmark than the USA when it comes to lower inequality and higher social mobility

Miles Corak, 2018

Inequality (Gini Coefficient, more inequality )

Japan

Germany

Sweden

FinlandNorway

Denmark

CANADA

Australia

New Zealand

FranceSpain

United Kingdom

Italy

Pakistan Switzerland

United States

China

Singapore

20 30 40 50

Inte

rgen

erat

iona

l Ear

ning

s M

obili

ty (

less

mob

ility

)

.2

.4

.6

Social immobility and income inequality – selected countries

And Canadians continue to

express robust confidence in their national institutions

Canadians are more confident in their national government than at any time in the past decade, and more so than in many OECD countries

Gallup World Poll, 2018

Percentage who say they have confidence in their national government

Canadians are more satisfied with the educational system in their country, than are citizens in most other OECD countries

Gallup World Poll, 2018

Percentage who are satisfied with the educational system or the schools

Canadians are much more confident in their financial institutions, than are citizens in many OECD countries . . .

Gallup World Poll, 2018

Percentage who are confident in their country’s financial institutions or banks

So, could it happen here?

Tolerance for the most part is holding – for now

What could change?

Significant economic downturn/disruption/loss of employment

Large increase in inequality, as in the USA and UK

Dramatic world events with global consequences

Homegrown terrorism

A flood of irregular immigration/asylum seeking

Erosion of central institutions (e.g. equalization, public health insurance and public education)

Looking into the future

History of mutual accommodation

Shared values

Political institutions

Healthcare and social programs

Progressive taxation/equalization

Public education

Dedication to reconciliation with Indigenous peoples

Programs to promote immigrant/refugee integration

Programs to eliminate racial and religious discrimination

….suggest we will not experience deep alienation from marginalized minorities nor deep backlash from significant segments of the majority

And a pollster’s prediction – Canada’s...

Implications for philanthropy

Promote the successful integration of immigrants and refugees

Promote public understanding of the need for immigration and the success of immigrants and their children in becoming Canadians

Help Indigenous Peoples adapt successfully to life in cities

Assist with strengthening social capital in our multicultural cities, especially among younger generations