Costs and Finance of Adaptation for Africa

Jabavu Nkomo and Calvin AtewambaACPC Presentation to AGN

13 August 2012

African Climate Policy Centre Costs and Finance of Adaptation for Africa


Study Methodology Time Period

Region Sectors Estimates (US$ billion per annum)

Figures for Africa (US$ billion per annum)

World Bank (2006)

Accounting/ project methods, analysis of official flows exposed to climate risk, costs of “climate-proofing are assumed in the analysis

Short term Developing countries

All 9-41 0.3

Stern (2007) Update, with slight modification, of the World Bank study


All 4-37

UNEP (2007) World Bank study, plus costing of targets for adapting poverty reduction programmes and strengthening disaster response of the system

2015 Developing countries

All 86-109

Oxfam (2007) World Bank study, plus slight modifications of cost estimates from NAPAs and NGO projects


All 50+


Study Methodology Time Period

Region Sectors Estimates (US$ billion per annum)

Figures for Africa (US$ billion per annum)

UNFCCC (2007)

Markets/sectoral methods: Disaggregating the analysis by sector and world region

2030 Developing 5- Agriculture, water, health, costal zones, infrastructure

28-67

UNFCCC (2007)


2030 Global 5- Agriculture, water, health, costal zones, infrastructure

44-166 7.2-9.9

World Bank (2010)


2050 Global Agriculture, water, social, health, costal zones, infrastructure, Extreme weather events

70-100 18

Fankhauser and Schmidt-Traub (2010)

Accounting/ project methods, climate proofing the MDGs based on previous global estimates of adaptation costs, disaggregating the analysis by sector

2020 Africa Agriculture & nutrition, nutrition & school feeding, education, health, infrastructure, statistics, additional interventions

11-21 11-21


Sectors

UNFCCC (2007) World Bank (2010)

Global

National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), wettest scenario

Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), driest

scenario

GlobalSub-Sahara

Africa Global Sub-Sahara AfricaInfrastructure

2 - 41 27.5 3.4 13,5 1.5

Water supply and flood protection 9 14.4 6.6 19.7 7.8

Agriculture, forestry, fisheries 7 2.6 1.12* 2.5 1.09*

Human health5 2 0.8 1.5 0.6

Coastal zones5 28.5 3.2** 27.6 3.2**

Extreme weather events - 6.7 2.49 6.5 2.59

Total28-67 81.5 17.61 71.2 16.78


Studies Regions/countriesSea level rise considered

Protection level (% of coastline protected)

% GDP or GNP or Annual protection cost (US$ million)

Tol, Fankhauser et al. (1998)

African Atlantic Coast

African Indian Ocean Coast1m

89%

0.25%

0.38%

Nicholls and Tol (2006)

Mozambique

Guinea-Bissau 20-35 cm by 2080

N/A0.1-0.8 % GDP

0-0.6% GDP

SEI (2009) Kenya0.17 - 1.26 m from 1995 to

2100Total

28-56 by 2030; 80 by 2050


Studies Regions/countriesSea level rise considered

Protection level (% of coastline protected)

Annual protection cost (US$ billion)

World Bank (2010)

Sub-Sahara Africa

5.9-27.3 cm by 2050 (average); max 40.2- 126.3

cm by 2100

Total 3.2

Nicholls (2007) Africa

8.9-9.1 cm by 2030 (average); max 44.4 – 52.7

cm by 2080

N/A 0.53 – 1.32

Tol (2002)Africa 1m 80% 0.92

Deke, Hooss et al. (2001)

Sub-Sahara Africa 1m Total 0.44

7African Climate Policy Centre Costs and Finance of Adaptation for Africa


Fund’s name Type Administered Area of focus Date Operational

Adaptation Fund (AF) Multilateral Adaptation Fund Board

Adaptation 2009

GEF Trust Fund – Climate Change focal area (GEF 4)

Multilateral The Global Environment Facility (GEF)

Adaptation, Mitigation- general

2006



Adaptation, Mitigation- general

2010

Global Climate Change Alliance (GCCA)

Multilateral The European Commission

Adaptation, Mitigation- general, Mitigation-REDD

2008

Green Climate Fund (GCF)

Multilateral GCF to be confirmed


Not yet operational

Indonesia Climate Change Trust Fund (ICCTF)

Multilateral Indonesia’s National Development Planning Agency


2010


Fund’s name Type Administered Area of focus Date Operational

International Climate Fund (ICF)

Bilateral Government of United Kingdom


2011

International Climate Initiative (ICI)

Bilateral Government of Germany


2008

Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF)


Adaptation 2002

MDG Achievement Fund- Environment and Climate thematic window (MDG)

Multilateral UNDP Adaptation, Mitigation- general

2007

Pilot Program for Climate Resilience

Multilateral The World Bank Adaptation 2008

Special Climate Change Fund Multilateral The Global Environment Facility (GEF)

Adaptation 2002

Strategic Climate Fund (SCF) Multilateral The World Bank Adaptation, Mitigation- general, Mitigation-REDD

2008

Strategic Priority on Adaptation (SPA)


Adaptation 2004


Fund’s nameGlobal Sub-Sahara Africa

Pledged Deposited Approved Disbursed Approved Disbursed

Adaptation Fund (AF) 115.96 115.91 109.22 16.93


753.74 753.74 989.69 900.53 106.88 88.24


1,141 1,048.10 170.49 2.95

Global Climate Change Alliance (GCCA)

226.12 224.62 296.81 130.99 52

Green Climate Fund (GCF)

International Climate Fund (ICF)

4,640 1,318.20 231.44 0


Fund’s nameGlobal Sub-Sahara Africa

Pledged Deposited Approved Disbursed Approved Disbursed

International Climate Initiative (ICI)

851.28 851.28 655.25 0

Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF)

396.24 349.73 180.32 115.04 90 60

MDG Achievement Fund- Environment and Climate thematic window (MDG)

89.5 89.5 89.52 86.27

Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR)

514 273.8 164.56 4.30 114 27

Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF)

216.55 170.65 125.17 91.6 20

Strategic Priority on Adaptation (SPA)

0 0 47.95 47.95

Total 8,963 5,204.34 3,066.7 1,402.07




Global Adaptation Finance Africa

Pledged Deposited Approved Disbursed

Adaptation Finance Disbursed

Annual costs of Adaptation

8,947.44 5,188.78 3,066.70 1,402.07 419.05 18,000-30,000


Source: AGF (2010)


Documents

Costs and Finance of Adaptation for Africa