COSMO GM2013.E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani,etal The COSMO-based ensemble systems for the Sochi 2014 Winter Olympic Games: representation and use of EPS

COSMO GM2013.E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani,etal

The COSMO-based ensemble systems

for the Sochi 2014 Winter Olympic Games:

representation and use of EPS products

and development of COSMO-RU2-EPS

E. Astakhova, D. Alferov, A.Montani, E. Astakhova, D. Alferov, A.Montani, G. Rivin, I. RozinkinaG. Rivin, I. Rozinkina

COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal2


TL: A. Montani and E.Astakhova

Preparation of epsgramsVisualization

Operational dissemination Forecasters’ feedback

Clustering+COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014

FDP

COSMO-

S14-

EPS

RDP

∆x~7 km40 MLfc+72h

COSMO-

RU2-

EPS

∆x~2.2 km50 MLfc+48h

ARPA-SIMC

RHMC

ICs&BCs

All 10 forecastsfor Sochi-mini

Probability fieldsfor the entire

domain

RHMC

ECMWF EPSforecasts

VisualizationCase studiesVerification

Sochi-miniIntegration domain

RHMC


Current statusCurrent status• The time of data arrival is very stable !!! 12 UTC: 20:15-20:2000 UTC: 8:15-8:20• Only few forecasts were not delivered From 15 May to 15 Aug 2013 :UTC12: June 10, Aug 5 UTC 00: June 27(+ System session at ECMWF on June 5)• Epsgrams are prepared and probability fields are drawn in

operational mode Forecasters receive EPS products at12 UTC: 20:20-20:3000 UTC: 8:20-8:30• Forecasters’ feedbackEnsemble products are used more activelyStations for epsgrams were chosen according to forecasters’

needs

Thanks to Andrea!!


What’s new since GM2012What’s new since GM2012Ensemble meteograms

• Three types of meteograms are prepared at RHMC and sent to forecasters twice a day

• The box-and-whisker diagrams can be also found at http://frost2014.meteoinfo.ru/bull/meteogr-arpa (authorization required: login frost pass steam)

• Elements are grouped in three plots: T2m, Td 2m, T850 total prec, rain, snow, rh 2m total clouds, low clouds, wind 10m, gusts 10m

Since January 2013

http://frost2014.meteoinfo.ru/bull/meteogr-arpa






Ensemble meteograms


Relation to FROST2014Relation to FROST2014Participating ensembles:

COSMO-S14-EPS (Italy, 10 members, 7km, fc+72h, 00UTC, 12UTC)Representative members from ECMWF EPS, COSMO model• Was the first to provide ensemble forecasts• Stable time of data arrival• Well-represented on the Web (probability fields+epsgrams)• Delivered in time to forecasters via e-mail

GLAMEPS (Norway, 54 members, ~11km, fc+54h, 06UTC,18UTC)ECMWF DET (1) HirEPS_S and HirEPS_K (24+2) HirLAM model with two cloud physics parameterizationsAladEPS (13) ECMWF EPS (14) NMMBEPS (USA, 7 members, ~7km, fc+72h, 00UTC, 12UTC)NMMB model, breeding LAEF (Austria, 16 members,~11 km,fc+72h, 00UTC, 12UTC,interpolation to ~7km grid) –only test filesAladin model, IC:breeding-blending cycling; ensemble surface assimilation with perturbedobservations


Relation to FROST2014:Relation to FROST2014:All forecasts and observations on the WebAll forecasts and observations on the Web

http://frost2014.meteoinfo.ru/bull/multi-system-point-forecasts

(authorization required)

http://frost2014.meteoinfo.ru/bull/multi-system-point-forecasts


Main results:Main results:

• The forecasts are regularly produced, processed and delivered to forecasters at

fixed time• The forecasters get used to

probabilistic forecasts and are applying them more and more actively

Open issues and plans:Open issues and plans:

Archiving graphical products at the FROST siteForecasters’ training (October 2013)Verification

We’re ready for We’re ready for the Olympics!the Olympics!



COSMO-RU2-EPS:Current status• ICs & BCs from COSMO-S14-EPS 7km

(November-April 2013)

UTC 00: 8:15-8:30 UTC12: 20:15-20:30

• 10 COSMO-S14-EPS members --> 10 2.2km ensemble members (downscaling)

• No physical parameters perturbed• Forecast length 48 h; output time step 1h• Uses ~3 h elapsed time on 120 PEs (10*12)

SGI Altix 4700 Itanium 2, 1.66 GHz, NUMALink, 1664 PEs, Peak 11 Tflops

• Quasi-operational runs: start at 9:30 and 21:30 UTC

12 UTC 11.01.2013 – 12 UTC 29.04.2013

The forecast is ready at ~12:30 and 00:30 UTC(~12,5 h after observation times)


Quasi-operational EPS run: Elapsed time 12 UTC 11.01.2013 – 12 UTC 29.04.2013

00 UTC

12 UTC

date

Depends on the computer load!Depends on the computer load!



What’s new (Trial results)?

• Postprocessing added (using fieldextra)• New case studies• Ready to use VERSUS for EPS verification against AMS

data

Output data are re-coded, observations and forecasts are loaded

•The integration domain was increased: now 172x132 grid points instead of 86x66 onesThe elapsed time increased by ~20% (0.5h)

•Some bugs were fixedToo large precipitation near the boundaries lana_qr_qs and llb_qr_qs were not turned on

NewNew OldOld

IC&BC



Postprocessing: fieldextra update• Since version 11.1.0:

– added cosmo-ru-eps as an option for default model name in fieldextra

– added Moscow as a supported originating center for ensemble postprocessing

• Now COSMO-RU2-EPS is fully supported in fieldextra

(thanks to fieldextra team!)• Output fields:

– PMSL, T2m, T850 – mean and spread;– mean 3-hour sum of total precipitation;– Probabilities – like in COSMO-S14-EPS; 1-hour T2m max, T2m

min and wind gusts at 10m added.


Case Study - 1: Precipitation 7-8 January 2013: Precipitation in Sochi region

COSMO-RU2-EPS vs COSMO-S14-EPS

Period (DDMM/HH UTC)

12-h prec, mm

06.01.2013 15:00 0,4

07.01.2013 3:00 5

07.01.2013 15:00 12

08.01.2013 3:00 12

08.01.2013 15:00 3

09.01.2013 3:00 1

09.01.2013 15:00 0

SYNOPdata

Aibga

Large probabilities of precipitation sums > 10mm should be predicted from 7.01.2013/12 to 8.01.2013/00

Heavy rain started 07.01.2013 at ~12 UTC


Probability of total precipitation exceeding 10 mm / 12 h Probability of total precipitation exceeding 10 mm / 12 h

Initial time: 00 UTC 06.01.013

00 UTC 07.01.2013 - 12 UTC 07.01.2013

7 km

2.2 km

COSMO-S14-EPS

COSMO-RU2-EPS

Aibga

OrographyOrography

Better resolution, more detailsBetter resolution, more details

Is most evident for small probabilitiesIs most evident for small probabilities


Probability of total precipitation exceeding 10 mm / 12 hProbability of total precipitation exceeding 10 mm / 12 h


00 UTC 07.01.2013 - 12 UTC 07.01.2013

Aibga

12 UTC 07.01.2013 - 00 UTC 08.01.2013

7 km

2.2 km

COSMO-S14-EPS

COSMO-RU2-EPS

Aibga

Beginning of the event was caught well by both systems!

High-resolution system adds value!High-resolution system adds value!


Probabilities of total precipitation and rain >10 mm / 12 hProbabilities of total precipitation and rain >10 mm / 12 h


12 UTC 07.01.2013 - 00 UTC 08.01.2013

7 km

2.2 km

Aibga

COSMO-S14-EPS

Total pr Rain

COSMO-RU2-EPS

Both systems differentiate between snow and rain! Both systems differentiate between snow and rain! Snow is predicted in the mountain cluster!Snow is predicted in the mountain cluster!


Case Study - 2: Temperature at 2m14-15 February 2013: Foehn in Sochi region,

sudden and hardly predictable warming

Period (DDMM/HH UTC) T2m

12.02/00 -2.4

12.02/06 -3.2

12.02/12 -3.4

12.02/18 -5

13.02/00 -5.2

13.02/06 -6.1

13.02/12 -2.8

13.02/18 -6

14.02/00 -2.6

14.02/06 <no data>

14.02/12 3

14.02/18 1.6

15.02/00 0.6

15.02/06 -1.3

15.02/12 0.6

15.02/18 -3.8

16.02/00 -3.6

SYNOPdata

6

4

2

0

-2

-4

12.0200 UTC

13.0200 UTC

14.0200 UTC

15.0200 UTC

16.0200 UTC

Aibga

-6

-8


Case Study - 2: T2m

Period (DDMM/HH UTC) T2m

12.02/00 7.1

12.02/06 5.5

12.02/12 6.3

12.02/18 5.1

13.02/00 4.2

13.02/06 4.6

13.02/12 11.3

13.02/18 3.9

14.02/00 1

14.02/06 3.2

14.02/12 13

14.02/18 6.2

15.02/00 2.4

15.02/06 3.7

15.02/12 16.2

15.02/18 9.7

16.02/00 5.4

SYNOPdata

18

16

14

12

10

8

12.0200 UTC

13.0200 UTC

14.0200 UTC

15.0200 UTC

16.0200 UTC

Krasnaya Poliana

6

4

2

0

14-15 February 2013: Foehn in Sochi region,

sudden and hardly predictable warming


COSMO-RU2-EPS:probability of T2M_MAX exceeding 5°C



COSMO-RU2-EPS:probability of T2M_MAX exceeding 5°C

Initial time: 00 UTC 13.02.2013Warming time was predicted well!


Case Study – 3 : Wind gusts at 10m15-16 March 2013: Strong wind gusts in Sochi region

SYNOP dataAbove 15 m/s at 15.03/19-21 UTC and 16.03/02-03 UTC

m/s


Case Study - 3: Wind gusts at 2m 15-16 March 2013: Strong wind gusts in Sochi region

SYNOP dataAbove 15 m/s at 15.03/15 UTC – 16.03/00 UTC, strongest at 15.03/17-18, 20-22 UTC

m/sm/s


COSMO-RU2-EPS:probability of hourly wind gusts exceeding 15 m/sec

Initial time: 00 UTC 14.03.2013Valid for 15.03.2013 16-23 UTC


COSMO-RU2-EPS:probability of hourly wind gusts exceeding 15 m/sec

Initial time: 12 UTC 14.03.2013Valid for 15.03.2013 16-23 UTC

Better forecast for smaller lead-times

Better forecast in Sochi

Problems with wind gust prediction in the mountain cluster


Case Studies : results

• Precipitation is predicted quite well (both the precipitation amounts and the moments of beginning/end). Good differentiation between rain near the shore and snow in the mountains was demonstrated.

• T2m is also predicted well. The system clearly indicated a warming related to the foehn event.

• Gusts are well predicted near the shore. There are problems with predicting wind gusts in the mountain cluster

• Comparisons of COSMO-RU2-EPS and COSMO-S14-EPS forecasts show that the higher resolution system adds value


What is next ?• Quantitative verification using VERSUS• Graphical output in quasioperational mode

(probability maps, epsgrams)• Quasioperational runs starting from mid-

November• Present the results at the FROST site• Try to provide the results to Sochi forecasters• Experiments with soil perturbations and model

perturbations (COTEKINO)


Documents

COSMO GM2013.E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani,etal The COSMO-based ensemble systems for the Sochi 2014 Winter Olympic Games: representation and use of EPS