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Modeling Presence Only Data
Cory MerowYale University
Occurrence Models
Annual Precipitation
PresencesMaxent
Software
Predictions
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11.4
11.6
11.8
12.0
12.2
cold warm
Occ
urre
nce
cold warm
cold warm
Longitude
Latit
ude
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occu
rrenc
e pr
obab
ility
Protea punctatawet dry
Presence vs Background
PresencesMaxent
Software●
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11.4
11.6
11.8
12.0
12.2
Protea punctata
Background
Background Selection ●
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11.4
11.6
11.8
12.0
12.2
Maxent’s prediction
Likelihood,in case anyone asks…
Variation in Predictions for Different SettingsHigh
LowThis flexibility could be very good or very bad….
Variation in Predictions for Different Settings
This flexibility could be very good or very bad….
High
Low
Settings affect
predictions
Case Study – Mustards
InvasiveGarlic Mustard Alliaria petiolata
NativeTower MustardArabis glabra
Invasions require extrapolation
? Occurrence model
What we ‘know’ already…
Merow, et al. PNAS, 2017
Objectives
How will climate change affect invasion?
Are uninvaded regions suitable?
Merow, et al. PNAS, 2017