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Corporate PresentationOctober 2009
THE PREMIUM VALUE DEFINED GROWTH INDEPENDENT
VALUE CREATION RETURN ON CAPITAL LOW-COST PRODUCER RETURN ON ASSETS
SNAPSHOT 2008 2009F
Cash flow (C$ millions) $6,969 $5,800 - $6,200
Per share - basic (C$) $12.89 $10.70 - $11.45
Capital expenditures (C$ millions) $7,451 $3,150
Dividend (C$/share) $0.40
Common shares (thousands) 540,991
Production (annual average, before royalties)Oil (mbbl/d) 316 346 - 382Natural gas (mmcf/d) 1,495 1,289 - 1,330BOE (mboe/d) 565 561 - 604
Conventional reserves (after royalties as at December 31, 2008 – constant pricing)
Proved oil (mmbbl) 1,346Proved natural gas (bcf) 3,684Proved BOE (mmboe) 1,960Proved and probable BOE (mmboe) 2,996
Synthetic crude oil reserves (after royalties as at December 31, 2008 – constant pricing)Proved (mmbbl) 1,946Proved and probable (mmbbl) 2,944
Based upon the following assumptions, including the impact of hedging2009F
Oil WTI (US$/bbl) $59.00Natural gas NYMEX (US$/mmbtu) $4.25Heavy oil diff (US$/bbl) $10.65C$/US$ $0.86
(1)
(1)
DELIVERING VALUE AND GROWTH
1
Corporate Presentation October 2009
CNQ2
Production Mix (Q2/09)
North Sea7%
6%
OffshoreWest Africa
NorthAmerica
87%
• Canadian based E&P company with international exposure
• ~US$40 billion enterprise value• ~590,000 boe/d – Q2/09
– 62% crude oil weighted• ~175,000 bbl/d new
capacity added • ~582,000 boe/d - 2009F • Returns focused • Major oil sands player
– Major in-situ producer with several projects in inventory
– Major mining project currently ramping production
The Premium Value, Defined Growth Independent
Who is Canadian Natural?Who is Canadian Natural?
CNQ3
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 090
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
• Consistent valuecreation through successful
–Exploitation –Exploration–Opportunistic
acquisitions
• 100% of reservessubject toindependent evaluation
Who is Canadian Natural?Who is Canadian Natural?
Consistent History of Value Creation
Production / Proved Reserves History (before royalties)
Production Reserves
Daily Production (m
boe/d)Prov
ed R
eser
ves
(mm
boe)
F
Note: Excluding bitumen mining reserves.
2
Corporate Presentation October 2009
CNQ4
Why Invest in Why Invest in Canadian NaturalCanadian Natural’’s Futures Future• Strong, low-risk asset base
– Includes world class oil sands in-situ and mining developments
–Largest producer of heavy crude oil in western Canada
–Largest net undeveloped land base in western Canada
–Second largest producer of natural gas in western Canada
• Balanced and large size reduces risk
• Track record of value creation
• Proven / committed management
• Winning exploitation-based strategy
• Defined plan for profitable growth
• Focused on value creation
Consistent History of Value Creation
CNQ5
35%Oil
48%Oil
29%Gas
75%DropIn Oil
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Q1
- 89
Q1
- 90
Q1
- 91
Q1
- 92
Q1
- 93
Q1
- 94
Q1
- 95
Q1
- 96
Q1
- 97
Q1
- 98
Q1
- 99
Q1
- 00
Q1
- 01
Q1
- 02
Q1
- 03
Q1
- 04
Q1
- 05
Q1
- 06
Q1
- 07
Q1
-08
Q1
- 09Historical Production GrowthHistorical Production Growth
Canadian Natural Production - 1989 to Present
Significant Price Reduction
(boe/d) Horizon ProjectConstruction
Successful Execution Through the Cycle
3
Corporate Presentation October 2009
CNQ6
A History of Value CreationA History of Value Creation
$0$2$4$6$8
$10$12$14$16
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008$0
$10$20$30$40$50$60$70$80
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20080
3
6
9
12
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Conventional Pretax Net Asset Value Per Share*
Actual 25% CAGR
Cash Flow Per Share*
Daily Production Per 10,000 Shares (boe/d)
Reserves Per Share* (boe)
Gas Oil Mining SCO
Actual 25% CAGR
Gas Oil
*Refer to page 3 of the 2008 Canadian Natural Annual Report for a detailed description of notes.
28% CAGR28% CAGR
Consistent Growth
8% CAGR8% CAGR
20% CAGR20% CAGR
26% CAGR26% CAGR
CNQ7
Committed ManagementCommitted Management
$199 $173 $157 $156 $144$73 $40 $24
$737
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
CNQ XTO DVN EOG ECA APA APC PXD NXY TLM
• Substantial management and director wealth at stake
–Strong motivation for management to perform
–Delivers clear alignment with shareholder interests
Note: Based on share ownership data excluding options and priced at July 24, 2009.Source: Thomson Reuters.
Management / Directors Stock Ownership(US$ millions)
$1,484
Consistent History of Value Creation
4
Corporate Presentation October 2009
CNQ8
Our StrategyOur Strategy
• Capital allocation to maximize value• Defined growth / value enhancement plans
by product / basin• Balance
–Product mix–Project time horizons–Drill bit and acquisitions–Strong balance sheet
• Opportunistic acquisitions• Control costs through area knowledge and domination of core
focus areas
A Proven, Effective Strategy
CNQ9
Natural Gas Natural Gas Operating Cost Peer ComparisonOperating Cost Peer Comparison
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07 Q3/07 Q4/07 Q1/08 Q2/08 Q3/08 Q4/08 Q1/09 Q2/09
Note: Other Producers - NXY, HSE, TLM, ECA, ARC, PWT, PGF.UN.
($/mcf)
Canadian Natural
Peer Average
Source: Corporate reports.
Peer Group
Best in Class Versus Established Peers
5
Corporate Presentation October 2009
CNQ10
Heavy Oil Heavy Oil Operating Cost Peer ComparisonOperating Cost Peer Comparison
$0.00
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07 Q3/07 Q4/07 Q1/08 Q2/08 Q3/08 Q4/08 Q1/09 Q2/09
($/bbl)
Note: Other Producers - NXY, HSE, TLM, ECA. CNQ heavy oil operations not including thermal operating costs. Source: Corporate reports.
Canadian Natural
Best in Class Versus Established Peers
Peer GroupPeer Average
CNQ11
North Sea Crude Oil Natural % of & NGLs Gas BOE Total
(mbbl) (mmcf) (6:1)2009F Production (per day) 37 - 41 8 - 10 38 - 432008 Production (per day) 45 10 47 8%2008 Proved Reserves (mmbbl/bcf) 256 67 267 12%
Note: Production numbers reflect Q2/09 actual production, before royalties. All figures are before royalties.
Offshore West Africa Crude Oil Natural % of & NGLs Gas BOE Total
(mbbl) (mmcf) (6:1)2009F Production (per day) 31 - 36 16 - 20 34 - 392008 Production (per day) 27 13 29 5%2008 Proved Reserves (mmbbl/bcf) 157 107 175 8%
NW AB466 mmcf/d
14 mbbl/d
NE BC336 mmcf/d
6 mbbl/d
Northern Plains356 mmcf/d192 mbbl/d
SE SK3 mmcf/d8 mbbl/d
Southern Plains
161 mmcf/d12 mbbl/d
North America Crude Oil Natural % of & NGLs Gas BOE/d Total (mbbl/d) (mmcf/d) (6:1)
2009F Production - conventional (per day) 220 - 240 1,265 - 1,300 431 - 4572008 Production - conventional (per day) 243 1,472 488 87%2008 Proved reserves - conventional (mmbbl/bcf) 1,057 4,077 1,737 80%
2009F Production - oil sands mining (bbl/d SCO) 58 - 65 58 - 652008 Proved SCO reserves (mmbbl) 1,946
Overview of TodayOverview of Today’’s Operationss Operations
Canadian Targeted Asset Base with Selected International Exposure
Oil Sands Mining 60 mbbl/d
6
Corporate Presentation October 2009
CNQ12
1-2 years 3-5 years BeyondNatural Gas Optimize Potential for >8,000 potential
returns 3-5% CAGR drilling locations
NA Oil Pelican / Primary 5-7% CAGR >20 years ofPrimrose of development
International Free cash High return Major area forflow projects growth (acq)
Horizon Commence Expansion to 6 - 8 billion bbl*Phase 1 232 - 250 mbbl/d
*Includes estimated mineable reserves and contingent resources.
A Growing, Returns - Focused E&P Creating Significant Value
Essential Elements to Our Defined PlanEssential Elements to Our Defined Plan
CNQ13
Canadian Natural Gas AssetsCanadian Natural Gas Assets
NW AB466 mmcf/d
NE BC336 mmcf/d
Northern Plains356 mmcf/d
SE SK3 mmcf/d
Southern Plains
161 mmcf/d
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Disciplined Development of Strong Gas AssetsNote: Reflects Q2/09 actual production, before royalties.
• 2009 plan–Maintain development of
growth projects–Expand inventory–High grade drilling program
and optimize production
7
Corporate Presentation October 2009
CNQ14
Natural Gas Natural Gas Core Area SummariesCore Area Summaries• North and South Plains
– Conventional exploitation• Shallow gas and HSC CBM
resource projects• Low risk, low cost, highly
profitable• Foothills
– High impact exploration• 14% average annual growth
since 2004• NE British Columbia
– Unconventional - Muskwa and Montney
• Low cost entry• NW Alberta
– Resource projects - Deep Basin and Montney
• Repeatable, large scale
Northern / Southern
Plains
NE BC
Foothills
NW AB
BCAB
CNQ Land
SK
Balanced, Cost Effective Growth
CNQ15
Heavy Oil AssetsHeavy Oil Assets
• Reliable conventional production
• Pelican Lake EOR development– Access additional 247 - 370
million barrels of resource potential
• Thermal in-situ development– Significant resource potential in
current plans– ~285,000 bbl/d of additional
in-situ production over next15 years
• Canadian Natural has competitive advantage via its vast land base
Birch Mountain(W. Horizon)
Gregoire
CNQ Land
Primrose(63 mbbl/d)
300 miles
Conventional Heavy Oil
(85 mbbl/d)
Kirby
Note: Reflects Q2/09 actual production, before royalties.
ABSK
Pelican Lake(36 mbbl/d)
Technology Option
8
Corporate Presentation October 2009
CNQ16
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Heavy Oil Heavy Oil Pelican LakePelican Lake
Produced to Date**127 mmbbl
How big is the reservoir?
How much of that oil is producible?
What method will be used to produce that oil?
*Includes proved and probable (December 31, 2008) reserves and contingent resources. **Estimated at December 31, 2008.
Future Primary*56 mmbbl
FuturePolymer,
Waterflood*399 mmbbl
OOIP* - 4.1 billion barrels Developed Region
Massive Resource to Exploit
Estimated FutureProduction*455 mmbbl
Produced to Date**127 mmbbl
(bar
rels
per
day
) Convert waterfloods to polymer
Polymer flood
Primary
Waterflood
• World class oil pool
• Efficient, low cost operations
• Polymer flood successful both technically and economically
• Technology enhancement will continue to improve oil recovery
CNQ17
Thermal Heavy Oil Thermal Heavy Oil PotentialPotential
285,000 bbl/d incremental production
Estimated Bitumen in Place33 billion barrels total
ClearwaterPrimrose
11 billion barrels
KirbyGrouseLeismer
Birch MountainGregoire
McMurray22 billion barrels
Proved and ProbableReserves*
1.1 billion barrels
Estimated Ultimate Recovery5.6 billion barrels total
Contingent Resources4.5 billion barrels
*December 31, 2008.
33 Billion Barrels of Bitumen in Place
9
Corporate Presentation October 2009
CNQ18
Thermal Heavy Oil Thermal Heavy Oil Growth PlanGrowth Plan
Oil Production TargetPhase Capacity Timing
(bbl/d) (year)
1 Primrose North/South 80,000 On Stream2 Primrose East 40,000 On Stream3 Kirby 45,000 20134 Grouse 60,000 20145 Birch Mountain East 60,000 20166 Gregoire 1 60,000 20187 CSS - Follow-up Process 30,000 20188 Leismer 30,000 2020
405,000
• 30,000 - 60,000 bbl/d addition every 2 - 3 years
Growth for Decades
CNQ19
Heavy Oil Heavy Oil Three Pronged Marketing PlanThree Pronged Marketing Plan
Southern Access expansionTerasen Phase 1 expansion (Edmonton to Vancouver)
Cum
ulat
ive
Incr
emen
tal V
olum
e
DilSynbitWCS (Western Canadian Select)Synbit
Blending
Pipelines
Short TermUp to 5 years
Medium Term5 to 10 years
Pegasus (Patoka to USGC)Spearhead (Chicago to Cushing)
Long Term>10 years
Conversioncapacity
CNQ isblending
~ 138 mbbl/d
Keystone (TCPL pipeline to Patoka, Cushing, Port Arthur)Alberta Clipper (ENB pipeline) CNQ has
committed120 mbbl/d
CNQ has committed
25 mbbl/d onPegasus
West Coast options (Gateway, TMX)
Texas Access USGC
Additional refinery conversion capacityRefining: cokers / hydrocrackersUpgrading: bitumen / heavy oil
CNQ has committed
100 mbbl/d to USGC refiner
Access to Incremental Markets Over the Short, Medium and Long Term
10
Corporate Presentation October 2009
CNQ20
Heavy OilHeavy OilKeystone PipelineKeystone Pipeline• Transportation
– Committed 120,000 bbl/d to the Keystone Pipeline Expansion to USGC for 20 years
• Mitigates logistical constraints– Narrows heavy oil differential
• Significantly reduces market risk for incremental production
• Alternative routing in the event of pipeline apportionment
• Supply– Committed 100,000 bbl/d to major
US Gulf Coast refiner for 20 years
Q4-2010Q4-2012
Pipeline Access to New Market is Critical
Q4-2009
CNQ21
International OperationsInternational Operations• North Sea
–Exploitation based value creation–Delivering field life extension–Generates significant free cash flow–Opportunity for acquisition in future years–Leveraging technical strengths in Africa
• Offshore West Africa–High return, long lead projects–Generates significant free cash flow–2008/9 activity
• Baobab sand issues dealt with, optimize West Espoir– 4 wells drilled over 2008/09, restored production of
11,000 bbl/d net to Canadian Natural• Mature Olowi exploitation project
– First production achieved April 2009
Focus on Free Cash Flow While Setting Up For Future Expansion
11
Corporate Presentation October 2009
CNQ22
Canadian NaturalCanadian Natural’’s Mineable Assets s Mineable Assets --Horizon Oil SandsHorizon Oil Sands• Mining resources
–16 billion barrels in place*, with 6 to 8 billion barrels recoverable**• 2.9 billion barrels of net proved
and probable SCO• Phased development (SCO)
– 110 mbbl/d capacity(Phase 1)
– Expansion to 232 to 250 mbbl/dcapacity targeted
– Future expansions to ~500 mbbl/d
• Significant free cash flow generation for decades
*Discovered initially-in-place estimate.**Includes mineable reserves and contingent resources.
World Class Opportunity - 40 Year Reserve ~500* mbbl/d -No Production Declines
UTS
SYN
SHC
SYN
SYN
DVN
PCASU
PCA
IOL
ECA
SU
SU
IOL
HSE
XOM
SHC
SU
SynencoSHC
XOM
ECA
ECA
Deer Creek
SU
UTS
SYN
SHC
SYN
SYN
DVN
PCASU
PCA
IMO
ECA
SU
SU
IMO
HSE
XOM
SHC
SU
SynencoSHC
XOM
ECA
ECA
TOT
SU
FortMcMurray
~43
mile
s
CNQCNQ
CNQHorizon
Oil Sands
CNQ23
Horizon Oil SandsHorizon Oil SandsProduction PlanProduction Plan• First synthetic production - February 28, 2009• Staged production
–Ramp up to full capacity of 110,000 bbl/d SCO throughout 2009• New equipment - may have premature failures• Fine tune plant to design rates and operational reliability
• 2009 production plan–Target to produce a total of 21.2 to 24.5 million barrels of SCO–Annual equivalent daily production of 58,000 to 65,000 barrels
Ramp up Throughout 2009
12
Corporate Presentation October 2009
CNQ24
Horizon Oil SandsHorizon Oil SandsPhase 1 Wall of Cash FlowPhase 1 Wall of Cash Flow
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
2009
*
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
WTI = US$56.00
Cash Flow(C$ millions)
Note: After tax and royalty. *2009 WTI = US$59.00.
Free Cash Flow - Sustainable for Decades
CNQ25
Canadian NaturalCanadian Natural2009 Overall Plan2009 Overall Plan1) Execute in a low price, tight, costly credit environment2) Pay down debt3) Re-profile major capital spending where appropriate4) Ramp up Horizon Oil Sands production5) Ensure capital flexibility for even tougher times6) Conserve our land base
– Expiries– Drainage
7) Keep thermal program on track8) Prepare for the future
– Cost reductions– Acquisition opportunities
9) Focus on value growth not production growth
Focus on Value Growth
13
Corporate Presentation October 2009
CNQ26
Canadian NaturalCanadian Natural2009 Capital Budget2009 Capital Budget
2008 2009F ChangeProduction (mmboe/d) 565 561 - 604 3%
Capital ($mm)Conventional $1,877 $ 1,305 (30%)Thermal 522 410 (21%)North Sea 325 170 (48%)Offshore West Africa 819 580 (29%)Horizon 4,064 600 (85%)Total $7,607 $3,150 (59%)
Reduction of $0.8 billion from Original 2009 Budget
CNQ27
$0.0
$1.5
$3.0
$4.5
$6.0
$7.5
Canadian NaturalCanadian NaturalCash Flow Range 2009Cash Flow Range 2009
4.1
(C$billion)
WTI US$/bbl $69.00 $59.00 $40.00AECO C$/GJ $7.37 $4.25 $4.00F/X US$/C$ $0.87 $0.86 $0.75
• Reaping the rewards of significant pre-2009 capital spending• Assuming in 2009 a $3.2 billion CAPEX program
2009 Cash Flow
*Adjusted for hedging and Canadian dollar impact.
3.7
2.2*
2.0
3.1*
2.7
7.3
6.2
5.85.4
5.2
2009 Free Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow in Low Price Environment
6.9
14
Corporate Presentation October 2009
CNQ28
Canadian Natural AssetsCanadian Natural Assets
• Natural gas–>8,000 potential wells in inventory–Strong exposure to shale gas–Large land base in western Canada
• Heavy crude oil–285,000 bbl/d incremental thermal oil–Dominant primary heavy oil position–Technology upside
• International–Baobab infill–Olowi development–South Africa exploration
• Horizon Oil Sands–Phase 1 onstream–Future - take production to ~500,000 bbl/d–Technology upside
Significant Upside
CNQ29
Canadian Natural AdvantageCanadian Natural Advantage
• Management, business philosophy, practice• Strong, balanced assets
–Vast opportunities• Balanced, proven, effective strategy• Control over capital allocation• Nimble
–Capture opportunities–Willingness to make tough decisions
• Significant free cash flow• Canadian Natural culture
–Low cost–Execution focused
The Premium Value, Defined Growth Independent
15
Corporate Presentation October 2009
CNQ30
Certain statements in this document or documents incorporated herein by reference constitute forward-looking statements or information (collectively referred to herein as “forward-looking statements”) within the meaning of applicable securities legislation. Forward-looking statements can be identified by the words “believe”, “anticipate”, “expect”, “plan”, “estimate”, “target”, “continue”, “could” “intend”, “may”, “potential”, “predict”, “should”, “will”, “objective”, “project”, “forecast”, “goal”, “guidance”, “outlook”, “effort” “seeks”, “schedule” or expressions of a similar nature suggesting future outcome or statements regarding an outlook. Statements relating to “reserves” are deemed to be forward-looking statements as they involve the implied assessment based on certain estimates and assumptions that the reserves described can be profitably produced in the future. There are numerous uncertainties inherent in estimating quantities of proved crude oil and natural gas reserves and in projecting future rates of production and the timing of development expenditures. The total amount or timing of actual future production may vary significantly from reserve and production estimates.
These statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to certain risks and the reader should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements as there can be no assurance that the plans, initiatives or expectations upon which they are based will occur.
The forward-looking statements are based on current expectations, estimates and projections about Canadian Natural Resources Limited (the “Company”) and the industry in which the Company operates, which speak only as of the date such statements were made or as of the date of the report or document in which they are contained and are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause the actual results, performance or achievements of the Company to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Such factors include, among others: general economic and business conditions which will, among other things, impact demand for and market prices of the Company’s products; volatility of and assumptions regarding crude oil and natural gas prices; fluctuations in currency and interest rates; assumptions on which the Company’s current guidance is based; economic conditions in the countries and regions in which the Company conducts business; political uncertainty, including actions of or against terrorists, insurgent groups or other conflict including conflict between states; industry capacity; ability of the Company to implement its business strategy, including exploration and development activities; impact of competition; the Company’s defense of lawsuits; availability and cost of seismic, drilling and other equipment; ability of the Company and its subsidiaries to complete its capital programs; the Company’s and its subsidiaries’ ability to secure adequate transportation for its products; unexpected difficulties in mining, extracting or upgrading the Company’s bitumen products; potential delays or changes in plans with respect to exploration or development projects or capital expenditures; ability of the Company to attract the necessary labour required to build its thermal and oil sands mining projects; operating hazards and other difficulties inherent in the exploration for and production and sale of crude oil and natural gas; availability and cost of financing; the Company’s and its subsidiaries’ success of exploration and development activities and their ability to replace and expand crude oil and natural gas reserves; timing and success of integrating the business and operations of acquired companies; production levels; imprecision of reserve estimates and estimates of recoverable quantities of crude oil, bitumen, natural gas and liquids not currently classified as proved; actions by governmental authorities; government regulations and the expenditures required to comply with them (especially safety and environmental laws and regulations and the impact of climate change initiatives on operating costs); asset retirement obligations; the adequacy of the Company’s provision for taxes; and other circumstances affecting revenues and expenses. Certain of these factors are discussed in more detail under the heading “Risk Factors”. The Company’s operations have been, and at times in the future may be affected by political developments and by federal, provincial and local laws and regulations such as restrictions on production, changes in taxes, royalties and other amounts payable to governments or governmental agencies, price or gathering rate controls and environmental protection regulations. Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize, or should any of the Company’s assumptions prove incorrect, actual results may vary in material respects from those projected in the forward-looking statements. The impact of any one factor on a particular forward-looking statement is not determinable with certainty as such factors are dependent upon other factors, and the Company’s course of action would depend upon its assessment of the future considering all information then available.
Readers are cautioned that the foregoing list of important factors is not exhaustive. Unpredictable or unknown factors not discussed in this report could also have material adverse effects on forward-looking statements. Although the Company believes that the expectations conveyed by the forward-looking statements are reasonable based on information available to it on the date such forward-looking statements are made, no assurances can be given as to future results, levels of activity and achievements. All subsequent forward-looking statements, whether written or oral, attributable to the Company or persons acting on its behalf are expressly qualified in their entirety by these cautionary statements. Except as required by law, the Company assumes no obligation to update forward-looking statements should circumstances or Management’s estimates or opinions change.
Forward Looking StatementsForward Looking Statements
CNQ31
Special Note Regarding Currency, Production and ReservesIn this document, all references to dollars refer to Canadian dollars unless otherwise stated. Production data is presented on a before royalties basis unless otherwise stated. In addition, reference is made to oil and gas in common units called barrel of oil equivalent (“boe”). A boe is derived by converting six thousand cubic feet of natural gas to one barrel of crude oil (6 mcf:1 bbl). This conversion may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation, since the 6mcf:1bbl ratio is based on an energy equivalency at the burner tip and does not represent the value equivalency at the well head.Canadian Natural retains qualified independent reserve evaluators to evaluate 100% of the Company’s conventional proved, as well as proved and probable crude oil, natural gas liquids and natural gas reserves and prepare Evaluation Reports on these reserves. Canadian Natural has been granted an exemption from National Instrument 51-101 – Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities (“NI 51-101”), which prescribes the standards for the preparation and disclosure of reserves and related information for companies listed in Canada. This exemption allows the Company to substitute United States Security and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) requirements for certain disclosures required under NI 51-101. There are three principal differences between the two standards. The first is the requirement under NI 51-101 to disclose both proved, and proved and probable reserves, as well as the related net present value of future net revenues using forecast prices and costs. The second is in the definition of proved reserves; however, as discussed in the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook (“COGEH”), the standards that NI 51-101 employs, the difference in estimated proved reserves based on constant pricing and costs between the two standards is not material. The third is the requirement to disclose a gross reserve reconciliation (before the consideration of royalties). Canadian Natural discloses its reserve reconciliation net of royalties in adherence to SEC requirements.The Company has disclosed proved conventional reserves and the Standardized Measure of discounted future net cash flows using year-end constant prices and costs as mandated by the SEC. The Company has elected to provide the net present value of these same conventional proved reserves as well as its conventional proved and probable reserves and the net present value of these reserves under the same parameters as additional voluntary information. In addition to the constant price and cost scenario, Canadian Natural has also elected to provide both proved, and proved and probable conventional reserves and the net present value of these reserves using forecast prices and costs as voluntary additional information.Conventional reserves and net present values of these reserves presented for years prior to 2003 were evaluated in accordance with the standards of National Policy 2-B which has now been replaced by NI 51-101. The stated reserves were reasonably evaluated as economically productive using year-end costs and prices escalated at appropriate rates throughout the productive life of the properties.
Canadian Natural’s independent reserve evaluators utilize the proved conventional reserve definition as prescribed by SEC in Regulation S-X 210.4-10 and the conventional proved and probable reserves definitions as prescribed under NI 51-101 in COGEH. Mining reserves are evaluated as prescribed in SEC Industry Guide 7. Internal estimates of Contingent Resources also utilize the definitions as prescribed under NI 51-101 in COGEH.
In this presentation Canadian Natural may disclose contingent resources as additional information. These are internal estimates that utilize the definition within section 5 of the COGE Handbook as prescribed under NI 51-101. Contingent resources are defined as those quantities of petroleum estimated, as of a given date, to be potentially recoverable from known accumulations using established technology or technology under development, but which are not currently considered to be commercially recoverable due to one or more contingencies. Additionally engineering and geotechnical appraisal through drilling, testing and/or production is required before the contingent resources can be classified as reserves. There is no certainty that any portion of the resources will be commercially viable to produce. Estimated Ultimate Recovery ("EUR"), as defined by the Society of Petroleum Engineers/ World Petroleum Council/ American Association of Petroleum Geologists/ Society of Petroleum Evaluation Engineers Petroleum Resources Management System ("SPE-PRMS"), is the potentially recoverable accumulation that includes reserves, resources and quantities already produced. In this presentation, the EUR Canadian Natural discloses includes only reserves and contingent resources. Canadian Natural also discloses discovered petroleum initially in-place which is the quantity of petroleum that is within a known accumulation prior to production. There is no certainty that any portion of these volumes will be commercially viable to produce.Special Note Regarding non-GAAP Financial MeasuresManagement's discussion and analysis includes references to financial measures commonly used in the oil and gas industry, such as cash flow, cash flow per share and EBITDA (net earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation depletion and amortization, asset retirement obligation accretion, unrealized foreign exchange, stock-based compensation expense and unrealized risk management activity). These financial measures are not defined by generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”) and therefore are referred to as non-GAAP measures. The non-GAAP measures used by the Company may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies. The Company uses these non-GAAP measures to evaluate the performance of the Company and of its business segments. The non-GAAP measures should not be considered an alternative to or more meaningful than net earnings, as determined in accordance with Canadian GAAP, as an indication of the Company's performance.Volumes shown are Company share before royalties unless otherwise stated.
Reporting DisclosuresReporting Disclosures
16
Corporate Presentation October 2009
CNQ32
AppendicesAppendices
CNQ33
Annualized Sensitivity to PricesAnnualized Sensitivity to Prices
• Annualized and based upon Q2/09 business conditions and sales volumes but excluding financial derivatives
*Includes financial derivatives.
Variable Impact on Cash FlowWTI +/- US$1.00/bbl ~$119 millionAECO +/- C$0.50/mcf ~$150 million$0.01 change in US$* ~$91 million10,000 bbl/d change in crude oil production ~$138 million10 mmcf/d change in natural gas production ~$10 million
Significant Upside from Conservative Budget Price Deck
17
Corporate Presentation October 2009
CNQ34
International North SeaInternational North Sea
• Exploitation base similar to WCSB
• Operate ~99% and own ~80% of production
• Infill drilling / recompletions & waterflood optimization
NinianMurchison
Strathspey
Columba
Lyell
TiffanyToniThelma
Kyle
Banff
NorthernNorth Sea
CentralNorth Sea
CNQ Lands Oil Field
Playfair
Edinburgh
Hutton
ScotlandAberdeen
Value Creation Through Exploitation Approach
CNQ35
InternationalInternationalOffshore Côte dOffshore Côte d’’IvoireIvoire• East Espoir
– First oil achieved in 2002– 4 infills drilled in 2005/6– FPSO expansion in 2009
• West Espoir development– First oil achieved July 2006
increased to ~13 mboe/d in 2007• Baobab development
– First oil achieved in 2005– Sand handling and infill
drilling program in 2008/9• 4 wells back on production
Acajou
Atlantic Ocean
West EspoirEast Espoir
KossipoBaobab
Foxtrot
Mantra
Panthere
CNQ Lands Oil FieldGas FieldProspects
Acajou
Jacqueville
Côte d’Ivoire
Area for Light Oil Growth
18
Corporate Presentation October 2009
CNQ36
International Offshore GabonInternational Offshore Gabon
• Olowi Field development plan– 12 miles offshore in
100 ft of water – Already delineated by 15 wells– 90% interest and operated
• First oil in April 2009– Oil leg below large gas cap– 34˚ API crude oil– Target 12-15 mbbl/d
SCM-2
SCM-1
MAZM-1
BIM-2BIM-3BIM-4
OLM-4
CMY-1
OLGNM-1 (ST-1)
OLM-1 (ST-1)
NYAM-1
OLOWI EEA
OLM-5
OLM-3
FABM-1
AWM-1
ARM-1THEMIS
DLM-1CTM-1
OLDM-1OLM-6
BIM-1 (B-15)
OLM-2
CHRM-1
OLOWI
GabonBIGORNEAU
Atlantic Ocean
Libreville (~545km)
Platform A
Platform B
Platform C (CSP)
Platform D
CNQ Lands
Olowi Field - Springboard Into Gabon
CNQ37
Natural Gas Natural Gas Competitive AdvantageCompetitive Advantage• Large land base provides
exposure to many play types– Conventional – Unconventional– Deep exploration
• Vast, cost effective infrastructure– ~21,000 miles of pipe
• Extensive seismic database– >890,000 kilometers of 2D– >61,000 sq. kilometers of 3D
• Large balanced inventory• Excellent people
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
CNQ ECA HSE DVN TLM APA PCA EOG NXY
Developed Undeveloped
Note: Based on 2008 Annual Reports.
WCB Land Holdings (Thousands of Net Acres)
Strong Gas Assets
19
Corporate Presentation October 2009
CNQ38
Natural Gas Natural Gas Defined Resource PotentialDefined Resource Potential• Drilling activity
–67% conventional andshallow gas
• Resource growth–60% Deep Basin,
Montney/Muskwa
Shallow Gas Conventional Plains
Jean Marie
Deep Basin
Foothills
C Plains HSC CBM
Montney/Muskwa
Shallow GasConventional
Plains
Jean Marie Deep Basin
FoothillsC Plains HSC CBM
Montney/Muskwa
10 Year PlanNet Risked Resource Additions by Play
2.0
0.7
3.0
5.0 10 Year PlanNet Risked Drilling Locations by Play
(total 6,578 identified locations)*
* Canadian Natural operated.
Balanced Short, Mid and Long Term Growth
CNQ39
Resource Plays Exploration Volumes Resource Plays Exploration Volumes 10 Year Plan10 Year Plan• Key projects
–Deep Basin - NW AB–Montney - NE BC–Muskwa - NE BC
• 10 year plan–1,233 wells forecast–395 mmcf/d
incremental volume
Natural Gas Incremental Volumes (mcf/d)
*British Columbia only.
020406080
100120140160
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Muskwa Montney Deep Basin
Natural Gas Wells (number)
050,000
100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Muskwa Montney Deep Basin*
*
Disciplined Long Term Growth
20
Corporate Presentation October 2009
CNQ40
Impact of Royalty Review Panel Impact of Royalty Review Panel Proposals on Conventional Natural GasProposals on Conventional Natural Gas
Shifted the gas price at which projects are economic upward
$8.00/mcf is now equivalent to $11.00/mcf$7.00/mcf= $9.13/mcf
Old RoyaltyNew Royalty
$/mcf
7.26
11.00
14.0
16.80
19.60
EconomicZone
CNQ41
Expanding Pipeline OptionsExpanding Pipeline Options
ChicagoCasper
Patoka
VancouverSuperior
ExistingLong Term Potential Approved/Proceeding
Fort McMurray
Cushing
Kitimat Edmonton
ENB Alberta Clipper450 mbbl/d in Q2/2010
USGC
Denver WoodRiver
Hardisty
ENB Spearhead 195 mbbl/d
ENB Gateway400 mbbl/d Crude Export Line
XOM Pegasus95 mbbl/d
ENB/XOM Texas AccessUSGC 400 mbbl/d
TCPL Keystone to Cushing 160 mbbl/d in 2010/11
TCPL Keystone XL Pipeline~500 mbbl/d in 2011/12
Steele City
TMX Staged Expansion 525 mbbl/d
Kinder Morgan 300 mbbl/d
TCPL Keystone to Patoka 435 mbbl/d in 2009/10
ENB Southern Access Mainline StagedExpansion 800 mbbl/d in 2008/09
21
Corporate Presentation October 2009
CNQ42
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Jan-
05M
ar-0
5M
ay-0
5Ju
l-05
Sep
-05
Nov
-05
Jan-
06M
ar-0
6M
ay-0
6Ju
l-06
Sep
-06
Nov
-06
Jan-
07M
ar-0
7M
ay-0
7Ju
l-07
Sep
-07
Nov
-07
Jan-
08M
ar-0
8M
ay-0
8Ju
l-08
Sep
-08
Nov
-08
Jan-
09M
ar-0
9M
ay-0
9
WCS at Hardisty Maya at USGC
WCS
Maya
Logistical Constraints
Heavy Oil DifferentialsHeavy Oil Differentials
Q4 to Q1 Q2 to Q3
Differential Impacted by Logistical Constraints
(% of WTI)
CNQ43
Pelican Lake Polymer FloodPelican Lake Polymer Flood
• What is a polymer?– It is a polyacrylamide powder
mixed with water• Why does it help recovery?
– It increases the viscosity of water and improves vertical and aerial sweep efficiencies by reducing fingering
• What additional facilitiesare required?
– Water handling capability at batteries– Polymer skids
• What is the incremental capital cost?– $6.00 to $8.00/bbl oil recovered
• What is the incremental operating cost?– $0.40 to $0.60/bbl oil recovered
PolymerInjector
22
Corporate Presentation October 2009
CNQ44
Pelican LakePelican LakeEOR PlanEOR Plan
Polymer flood by end 2008
2009 Polymer Plan
5 Year Polymer Plan
30 miles
Polymer Success Leads to Expansion
CNQ45
Polymer Flood OptimizationPolymer Flood Optimization
• Reservoir–Testing polymer response in portions of the pool with higher
oil viscosities–Evaluating the use of alkaline surfactants to reduce residual oil–Optimizing the type and quantities of polymer being used–Optimizing injected volumes within the well patterns
• Infrastructure–Designing / constructing larger mixing skids and
distribution systems–Mixing polymer with brackish reservoir water rather than fresh
water for injection–Maximizing water recycling–Optimizing facilities for fluid increases due to polymer response
Continued Technology Development
23
Corporate Presentation October 2009
CNQ46
Thermal Heavy Oil Growth PlanThermal Heavy Oil Growth PlanFuture ProductionFuture Production
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
220,000
240,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Primrose
Kirby Grouse
Primrose Development
Birch Mtn
Production(bbl/d)
CNQ47
Thermal Heavy OilThermal Heavy OilRecovery SchemesRecovery Schemes
Cyclic Steam Stimulation (CSS)– Inject steam from a single
horizontal or vertical well– Can use high pressure– Requires solution gas drive– Wet steam SOR
(~1.25 dry steam SOR)
Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD)– Continuous injection of steam into
upper well and gravity drainage to lower producer well
– Higher recovery factor– Clean, continuous reservoir
Match Scheme to Reservoir
24
Corporate Presentation October 2009
CNQ48
• Primary recovery 5-15% OOIP leaving billions of barrels unrecovered
• Enhancing recovery• Underway
• Infill drilling 5-10 wells per acre
• Selective waterflood applications• Selective use of
horizontal drilling– EOR recovery processes
being evaluated• Hydrocarbon solvent injections• CO2 injection• Polymer flooding
Primary Heavy OilPrimary Heavy OilEnhanced RecoveryEnhanced Recovery
Enormous Potential - Low Cost Barrels
Heavy Oil Heavy Oil
CNQ49
Technology OptionTechnology OptionThermal GeoThermal Geo--steering Well Placementsteering Well Placement
Bitumen burner tip
Primrose North Steam Plant
Capturing More of the Reservoir With Technology Advancement
25
Corporate Presentation October 2009
CNQ50
Thermal Heavy OilThermal Heavy OilTechnology AdvancementTechnology Advancement
Stage 1, CSS recovery factor 20%
ºCelsiusHorizontal Wells
Stage 2, Infill recovery factor 30%
Infill Well
Stage 3, Gravity Drainage recovery factor 40%
Injector WellInjector Well Producing Well
Technology Maximizes Recovery and Value
CNQ51
Horizon Oil SandsHorizon Oil SandsProcess and TechnologyProcess and Technology
Only Proven Technologies Will be Utilized Reducing Technology Risks
26
Corporate Presentation October 2009
CNQ52
UTS
SYN
SHC
SYN
SYN
DVN
PCASU
PCA
IOL
ECA
SU
SU
IOL
HSE
XOM
SHC
SU
SynencoSHC
XOM
ECA
ECA
Deer Creek
SU
UTS
SYN
SHC
SYN
SYN
DVN
PCASU
PCA
IMO
ECA
SU
SU
IMO
HSE
XOM
SHC
SU
SynencoSHC
XOM
ECA
ECA
TOT
SU
FortMcMurray
~43
mile
s
CNQCNQ
CNQHorizon
Oil SandsUTS
SYN
SHC
SYN
SYN
DVN
PCASU
PCA
IOL
ECA
SU
SU
IOL
HSE
XOM
SHC
SU
SynencoSHC
XOM
ECA
ECA
Deer Creek
SU
UTS
SYN
SHC
SYN
SYN
DVN
PCASU
PCA
IMO
ECA
SU
SU
IMO
HSE
XOM
SHC
SU
SynencoSHC
XOM
ECA
ECA
TOT
SU
FortMcMurray
~43
mile
s
CNQCNQ
CNQHorizon
Oil Sands
Horizon Oil Sands Site LayoutHorizon Oil Sands Site Layout
Lease 11
Lease 12
Lease 15
Lease 10
Lease 19
Lease20
Lease 18
Lease25
Ath
abas
caR
iver
TailingsPond
NorthwestPit
Northeast Pit
SouthwestPit Southeast
Pit
Plant Site
OverburdenDump
OverburdenDump
HorizonLake
OverburdenDump
Site Layout Maximizes Resource Recovery and Optimizes Economic Returns
CNQ53
$1.87 Admin - Property tax increase $1.32, Technical Services increase $.33 due to headcount & transfers in of I.T. costs and other overhead costs, Business Services $.22 Insurance .
$2.83 Mine increases mainly due to overburden escalation costs, tires & parts increase and higher overheads.$1.42 Bitumen Production increase due to increases in contract costs, overheads as well as material & supplies higher than
expected.$2.93 Nat Gas Price from $7.03/GJ to $8.98/GJ ($58 W TI prior vs $85.73 WTI current)
Power from $56.27/MW to $89/MW$0.52 Utilities & Services increase due to transfer in of headcount, overheads as well as increases in contract costs.$0.07 Green House Gas increase $0.72 Upgrading increase due to increases in contract costs and higher overheads.
$10.36
Major Changes - Operating from October 2007
Direct Natural Imported Forecast Oct-07 VarianceCost Gas Power per bbl SCO Estimate
Mining 8.04$ 0.01$ 0.06$ 8.11$ 4.95$ 3.16$ Bitumen production 3.03$ 0.34$ 0.55$ 3.92$ 2.18$ 1.74$
Upgrading 2.47$ 4.18$ 0.34$ 6.99$ 4.83$ 2.16$ Utilities & Services 1.69$ 2.23$ 0.18$ 4.10$ 2.74$ 1.36$
Administration 4.87$ 4.87$ 2.99$ 1.87$ Environmental 1.32$ 1.32$ 1.25$ 0.07$
Total $/bbl for Average Life 21.42$ 6.76$ 1.12$ 29.30$ 18.94$ 10.36$
Average Sustaining Capital 1.90$ 1.80$ 0.10$
Current Forecast
Horizon Oil SandsHorizon Oil SandsOperating CostsOperating Costs• Phase 1 costs are targeted to be between $35.00/bbl to $40.00/bbl in 2009
– Impacted by fixed cost effect and lower production• Life of mine operating costs
27
Corporate Presentation October 2009
CNQ54
Horizon Oil SandsHorizon Oil SandsPhase 1 Capital CostsPhase 1 Capital Costs• Current forecast $9.7 billion ($88,182 per bbl capacity)
–43% above original estimate–Late forecast increase due to Hydrotreater schedule slippages,
rework and closeout of punch list items• Very heated environment 2005 to 2008 driving competition
for resources–Oil price from WTI $28 to >$140 drove unsustainable activity–Commodity increases (steel, copper, etc) from global demand–Low labour productivity
• Many new tradesmen–Existing contractors overloaded
• Supervision spread too thin–Shortage of contractors required search for new contractors
• Used contractors from across North America• Learning curve and extended time for ramp up construction effort
Maintaining Cost Discipline in a Difficult Economic Environment
CNQ55
Horizon Oil SandsHorizon Oil SandsPhase 2/3 Phase 2/3 -- AdvantagesAdvantages• Site Labour Agreement in place (Division 8 legislation)• Experience running support programs
–Bussing–Fly in / out –Bringing on new contractors (new to Alberta and Canada)
• Long leads purchased–Hydrotreating reactors and coke drums on site–Delivery of absorber stripper expected Q1/09
• Team in place
28
Corporate Presentation October 2009
CNQ56
Horizon Oil SandsHorizon Oil SandsExpansion to 232,000 Expansion to 232,000 -- 250,000 bbl/d250,000 bbl/d• Previously segregated into four tranches
–Tranche 1 - complete–Tranche 2 - portions of engineering underway, balance
under re-assessment–Tranche 3 - re-profile timing and strategy–Tranche 4 - re-profile timing and strategy
• Timing of construction critical to cost control–Take advantage of slow times
• Expect to evaluate / segregate into even smaller components with interim production
• Avoid “mega” project phenomena• Not driven to production increases at the expense of
higher costs
CNQ57
Horizon Oil SandsHorizon Oil SandsPhase 2/3 Phase 2/3 -- ReRe--ProfilingProfiling• Strategy
–Don’t build in a high cost environment–Not production driven but “value” driven –Smaller project sizes
• 2009 activity–Continue with third OPP engineering and procurement
• Achieved 73% currently under Lump Sum contract • Balance to be bid during 2009
–Evaluate work by CNQ own forces • Next step to improving project execution
29
Corporate Presentation October 2009
CNQ58
Horizon Oil SandsHorizon Oil SandsPhase 2/3 Phase 2/3 -- Development StrategyDevelopment Strategy• Established four tranches
–Tranche 1: completed $212 million• Engineering design specification for 232,000 bbl/d• Front end engineering and design • Coker foundations and some supporting infrastructure built• Long lead equipment ordered
(coke drums, reactors, mobile equipment)
–Tranche 2: under development• No production loss during first shutdown
(Third OPP & Hydrotransport)• Environmental commitments (Gas Recovery Unit,
third Sulphur Plant)• Increase reliability “Flood the Upgrader” (mine equipment)• Debottlenecking potential production gains of 5% to 15%
CNQ59
Horizon Oil SandsHorizon Oil SandsPhase 2/3 Phase 2/3 -- Development StrategyDevelopment Strategy
–Tranche 3• Transition to new tailings technology (reduce energy and op costs)• Additional mining equipment & shops• Coker expansion, CO2 recovery• Production increase by 10,000 to 20,000 bbl/d SCO
–Tranche 4: • Ore Preparation Plants (trains 4 & 5)• Extraction retrofit trains 1 & 2• Second Froth Treatment Plant• Vacuum Recovery Unit / Diluent Recovery Unit• Hydotreating (2 units) • Hydrogen Plant • Sulphur Plant (train 4)• Cogeneration and Heat Integration• Tankage• Production expansion to 232,000 to 250,000 bbl/d SCO
30
Corporate Presentation October 2009
CNQ60
Revolving Bank Credit FacilitiesRevolving Bank Credit Facilities
(C$ millions) MaturityRevolving bank line - Conventional $ 2,230 June 2012Revolving bank line - Horizon Oil Sands $ 1,500 June 2012Operating demand loan $ 125 DemandNorth Sea operating line (£15 million) $ 28 DemandTotal bank lines $ 3,883
Available - June 30, 2009 $ 1,749
CNQ61
Maturity Schedule Maturity Schedule -- Public / Private DebtPublic / Private Debt
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2037
C$ Public US$ Public Private Notes
(C$ millions)
Note: Represents principal repayments only and does not reflect fair value adjustments, original issue discounts or transaction costs.Does not include bank debt.
Manageable Refinancing
31
Corporate Presentation October 2009
CNQ62
$3$4$5$6$7$8$9
$10
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q2/10
Collars Physical Sales MarketNote: Values presented represent blended averages, please refer to quarterly reports for detailed hedging positions. Strip pricing as at Jul 31, 2009.
72% - Market 83% - Market
28%$5.29
72% - Market72% - Market
Strip Floor Ceiling
83% - Market
2009 Natural Gas Hedging 2009 Natural Gas Hedging AECO (C$/GJ)AECO (C$/GJ)2009 Natural Gas Hedging 2009 Natural Gas Hedging AECO (C$/GJ)AECO (C$/GJ)
Upside Opportunity, Downside Protection
28%$5.29
28%$5.29 17%
$6.00 - 8.0017%
$6.00 - 8.00
CNQ63
$30$40$50$60$70$80$90
$100$110$120
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q2/10
Collars Puts Market
2009 Crude Oil Hedging 2009 Crude Oil Hedging WTI (US$/bbl)WTI (US$/bbl)
Note: Values presented represent blended averages, please refer to quarterly reports for detailed hedging positions. Strip pricing as at July 31, 2009.
Strip Floor Ceiling Puts
~7% $70.00 - $111.56
~25% - $100.00
~8% $70.00 - $108.56
~66% - Market ~68% - Market
~26% - $100.00 ~23% - $100.00
~6% $70.00 - $111.56
~71% - Market 89% - Market
Upside Opportunity, Downside Protection
89% - Market
~11% $60.00 - $75.08 ~11% $60.00 - $75.08
NOTES
NOTES
Special Note Regarding Currency, Production and ReservesIn this document, all references to dollars refer to Canadian dollars unless otherwise stated. Production data is presented on a before royalties basis unless otherwise stated. In addition, reference is made to oil and gas in common units called barrel of oil equivalent (“boe”). A boe is derived by converting six thousand cubic feet of natural gas to one barrel of crude oil (6 mcf:1 bbl). This conversion may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation, since the 6mcf:1bbl ratio is based on an energy equivalency at the burner tip and does not represent the value equivalency at the well head.Canadian Natural retains qualified independent reserve evaluators to evaluate 100% of the Company’s conventional proved, as well as proved and probable crude oil, natural gas liquids and natural gas reserves and prepare Evaluation Reports on these reserves. Canadian Natural has been granted an exemption from National Instrument 51-101 – Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities (“NI 51-101”), which prescribes the standards for the preparation and disclosure of reserves and related information for companies listed in Canada. This exemption allows the Company to substitute United States Security and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) requirements for certain disclosures required under NI 51-101. There are three principal differences between the two standards. The first is the requirement under NI 51-101 to disclose both proved, and proved and probable reserves, as well as the related net present value of future net revenues using forecast prices and costs. The second is in the definition of proved reserves; however, as discussed in the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook (“COGEH”), the standards that NI 51-101 employs, the difference in estimated proved reserves based on constant pricing and costs between the two standards is not material. The third is the requirement to disclose a gross reserve reconciliation (before the consideration of royalties). Canadian Natural discloses its reserve reconciliation net of royalties in adherence to SEC requirements.The Company has disclosed proved conventional reserves and the Standardized Measure of discounted future net cash flows using year-end constant prices and costs as mandated by the SEC. The Company has elected to provide the net present value of these same conventional proved reserves as well as its conventional proved and probable reserves and the net present value of these reserves under the same parameters as additional voluntary information. In addition to the constant price and cost scenario, Canadian Natural has also elected to provide both proved, and proved and probable conventional reserves and the net present value of these reserves using forecast prices and costs as voluntary additional information.Conventional reserves and net present values of these reserves presented for years prior to 2003 were evaluated in accordance with the standards of National Policy 2-B which has now been replaced by NI 51-101. The stated reserves were reasonably evaluated as economically productive using year-end costs and prices escalated at appropriate rates throughout the productive life of the properties.Canadian Natural’s independent reserve evaluators utilize the proved conventional reserve definition as prescribed by SEC in Regulation S-X 210.4-10 and the conventional proved and probable reserves definitions as prescribed under NI 51-101 in COGEH. Mining reserves are evaluated as prescribed in SEC Industry Guide 7. Internal estimates of Contingent Resources also utilize the definitions as prescribed under NI 51-101 in COGEH.
Special Note Regarding Forward-looking StatementsCertain statements in this document or documents incorporated herein by reference constitute forward-looking statements or information (collectively referred to herein as “forward-looking statements”) within the meaning of applicable securities legislation. Forward-looking statements can be identified by the words “believe”, “anticipate”, “expect”, “plan”, “estimate”, “target”, “continue”, “could” “intend”, “may”, “potential”, “predict”, “should”, “will”, “objective”, “project”, “forecast”, “goal”, “guidance”, “outlook”, “effort” “seeks”, “schedule” or expressions of a similar nature suggesting future outcome or statements regarding an outlook. Statements relating to “reserves” are deemed to be forward-looking statements as they involve the implied assessment based on certain estimates and assumptions that the reserves described can be profitably produced in the future. There are numerous uncertainties inherent in estimating quantities of proved crude oil and natural gas reserves and in projecting future rates of production and the timing of development expenditures. The total amount or timing of actual future production may vary significantly from reserve and production estimates.
These statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to certain risks and the reader should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements as there can be no assurance that the plans, initiatives or expectations upon which they are based will occur.
The forward-looking statements are based on current expectations, estimates and projections about Canadian Natural Resources Limited (the “Company”) and the industry in which the Company operates, which speak only as of the date such statements were made or as of the date of the report or document in which they are contained and are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause the actual results, performance or achievements of the Company to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Such factors include, among others: general economic and business conditions which will, among other things, impact demand for and market prices of the Company’s products; volatility of and assumptions regarding crude oil and natural gas prices; fluctuations in currency and interest rates; assumptions on which the Company’s current guidance is based; economic conditions in the countries and regions in which the Company conducts business; political uncertainty, including actions of or against terrorists, insurgent groups or other conflict including conflict between states; industry capacity; ability of the Company to implement its business strategy, including exploration and development activities; impact of competition; the Company’s defense of lawsuits; availability and cost of seismic, drilling and other equipment; ability of the Company and its subsidiaries to complete its capital programs; the Company’s and its subsidiaries’ ability to secure adequate transportation for its products; unexpected difficulties in mining, extracting or upgrading the Company’s bitumen products; potential delays or changes in plans with respect to exploration or development projects or capital expenditures; ability of the Company to attract the necessary labour required to build its thermal and oil sands mining projects; operating hazards and other difficulties inherent in the exploration for and production and sale of crude oil and natural gas; availability and cost of financing; the Company’s and its subsidiaries’ success of exploration and development activities and their ability to replace and expand crude oil and natural gas reserves; timing and success of integrating the business and operations of acquired companies; production levels; imprecision of reserve estimates and estimates of recoverable quantities of crude oil, bitumen, natural gas and liquids not currently classified as proved; actions by governmental authorities; government regulations and the expenditures required to comply with them (especially safety and environmental laws and regulations and the impact of climate change initiatives on operating costs); asset retirement obligations; the adequacy of the Company’s provision for taxes; and other circumstances affecting revenues and expenses. Certain of these factors are discussed in more detail under the heading “Risk Factors”. The Company’s operations have been, and at times in the future may be affected by political developments and by federal, provincial and local laws and regulations such as restrictions on production, changes in taxes, royalties and other amounts payable to governments or governmental agencies, price or gathering rate controls and environmental protection regulations. Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize, or should any of the Company’s assumptions prove incorrect, actual results may vary in material respects from those projected in the forward-looking statements. The impact of any one factor on a particular forward-looking statement is not determinable with certainty as such factors are dependent upon other factors, and the Company’s course of action would depend upon its assessment of the future considering all information then available.
Readers are cautioned that the foregoing list of important factors is not exhaustive. Unpredictable or unknown factors not discussed in this report could also have material adverse effects on forward-looking statements. Although the Company believes that the expectations conveyed by the forward-looking statements are reasonable based on information available to it on the date such forward-looking statements are made, no assurances can be given as to future results, levels of activity and achievements. All subsequent forward-looking statements, whether written or oral, attributable to the Company or persons acting on its behalf are expressly qualified in their entirety by these cautionary statements. Except as required by law, the Company assumes no obligation to update forward-looking statements should circumstances or Management’s estimates or opinions change.
Special Note Regarding non-GAAP Financial MeasuresManagement’s discussion and analysis includes references to financial measures commonly used in the crude oil and natural gas industry, such as cash flow from operations, adjusted net earnings from operations, and EBITDA (net earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, depletion and amortization, asset retirement obligation accretion, unrealized foreign exchange, stock-based compensation expense and unrealized risk management activities). These financial measures are not defined by generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”) and therefore are referred to as non-GAAP measures. The non-GAAP measures used by the Company may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies. The Company uses these non-GAAP measures to evaluate its performance. The non-GAAP measures should not be considered an alternative to or more meaningful than net earnings, as determined in accordance with Canadian GAAP, as an indication of the Company’s performance.
Volumes shown are Company share before royalties unless otherwise stated.
SPECIAL NOTES
HEDGING
At June 30, 2009, the Company had the following net derivative financial instruments outstanding to manage its commodity price exposures:
Remaining term Volume Weighted average price Index
Crude oil Crude oil price collars Jul 2009 – Dec 2009 25,000 bbl/d US$70.00 – US$111.56 WTI
Jan 2010 – Dec 2010 50,000 bbl/d US$60.00 – US$75.08 WTI
Crude oil puts Jul 2009 – Dec 2009 92,000 bbl/d US$100.00 WTI
At June 30, 2009, the net cost of outstanding put options and their respective periods of settlement was as follows:
Q3 2009 Q4 2009
Cost ($ millions) US$61 US$61
Remaining term Volume Weighted average price Index
Natural gas Natural gas price collars Jan 2010 – Dec 2010 220,000 GJ/d C$6.00 – C$8.00 AECO
In addition to the derivative financial instruments noted above, the Company entered into natural gas physical sales contracts for 400,000 GJ/d at an average fixed price of C$5.29 per GJ at AECO for the period July to December 2009.
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Operational Information
Daily production, before royaltiesCrude oil and NGLs (mbbl/d) 242 283 313 332 331 316Natural gas (mmcf/d) 1,299 1,388 1,439 1,492 1,668 1,495Barrels of oil equivalent (mboe/d) 459 514 553 581 609 565
Daily production, after royaltiesCrude oil and NGLs (mbbl/d) 220 256 283 301 293 276Natural gas (mmcf/d) 1,030 1,105 1,147 1,209 1,402 1,246Barrels of oil equivalent (mboe/d) 391 440 474 502 526 484
Proved reserves, before royaltiesCrude oil and NGLs (mmbbl) 1,000 1,123 1,223 1,487 1,543 1,470Natural gas (bcf) 3,154 3,310 3,490 4,613 4,435 4,251Barrels of oil equivalent (mmboe) 1,526 1,674 1,804 2,256 2,282 2,178
Proved reserves, after royaltiesCrude oil and NGLs (mmbbl) 895 1,066 1,118 1,316 1,358 1,346Natural gas (bcf) 2,588 2,690 2,842 3,798 3,666 3,684Barrels of oil equivalent (mmboe) 1,320 1,514 1,592 1,949 1,969 1,960
Mining reserves, SCO (mmbbl) 1,761 1,946
Drilling activity, net wellsCrude oil and NGLs 458 328 627 603 592 682Natural gas 777 689 890 641 383 269Dry 118 96 117 119 93 39Strats and service 440 336 248 375 254 131
Undeveloped land (thousands of acres)North America 9,811 11,523 10,947 12,785 12,160 11,603North Sea 573 565 352 299 287 258Offshore West Africa 943 886 426 207 192 192
Realized product pricing, before hedging activities & after transportation costsCrude oil and NGLs (C$/bbl) 32.66 37.99 46.86 53.65 55.45 82.41Natural gas (C$/mcf) 6.21 6.50 8.57 6.72 6.85 8.39
Results of operations (C$ millions, except per share)Cash flow from operations 3,160 3,769 5,021 4,932 6,198 6,969per share 5.88 7.03 9.36 9.18 11.49 12.89
Net earnings 1,403 1,405 1,050 2,524 2,608 4,985per share 2.62 2.62 1.96 4.70 4.84 9.22
Capital expenditures (net, including combinations) 2,506 4,633 4,932 12,025 6,425 7,451
Balance Sheet Info (C$ millions)Property, plant and equipment 13,714 17,064 19,694 30,767 33,902 38,966Total assets 14,643 18,372 21,852 33,160 36,114 42,650Long-term debt 2,748 3,538 3,321 11,043 10,940 12,596Shareholders’ equity 6,006 7,324 8,237 10,690 13,321 18,374
RatiosDebt to cash flow, trailing 12 months 0.9x 1.0x 0.7x 2.2x 1.8x 1.9xDebt to book capitalization 33% 34% 29% 51% 45% 41%Return to common equity, trailing 12 months 26% 21% 14% 27% 22% 33%Daily production before royalties per 10,000 common shares 8.5 9.6 10.3 10.8 11.3 10.4Proved and probable reserves before royalties per common share 4.0 4.3 4.8 6.4 6.3 6.1
Share information
Common shares outstanding 534,926 536,361 536,348 537,903 539,729 540,991Weighted average common shares 536,940 536,223 536,650 537,339 539,336 540,647Dividend per share (C$) 0.15 0.20 0.24 0.30 0.34 0.40TSX trading info
Average daily trading volume (thousands) 2,344 2,724 2,542 2,028 1,709 2,708High (C$) 16.81 27.58 62.00 73.91 80.02 111.30Low (C$) 11.30 15.96 24.28 45.49 52.45 34.19Close (C$) 16.34 25.63 57.63 62.15 72.58 48.75
Note: All per share data adjusted for 2004 and 2005 stock splits.
KEY HISTORIC DATA
Note: Interest rates are subject to change depending upon short term rate changes. Cash income taxes are subject to variation with commodity prices and the level and classification of capital expenditures. Cash PRT is subject to variation due to commodity price and capital spending. 2009 forecast based on an average annual WTI of $59.00/bbl, NYMEX of US$4.25/mmbtu and an exchange rate of US$0.86 to C$1.00.
August 6, 2009
This document contains forward-looking statements under applicable securities laws, including, in particular, statements about Canadian Naturals’ plans, strategies and prospects. Although the Company believes that the expectations reflected in these forward-looking statements are reasonable, such
statements are subject to known or unknown risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated. Please refer to the Company’s Interim Report or Annual Information Form for a full description of these risks and impacts.
2009 Forecast
Daily Production Volumes, (before royalties)Natural gas (mmcf/d)
North America 1,250 - 1,275 1,265 - 1,300North Sea 6 - 8 8 - 10Offshore West Africa 18 - 21 16 - 20
1,274 - 1,304 1,289 - 1,330Crude oil and NGLs (mbbl/d)
North America – Conventional 215 - 225 220 - 240North America – Oil Sands Mining 80 - 90 58 - 65North Sea 34 - 37 37 - 41Offshore West Africa 34 - 37 31 - 36
363 - 389 346 - 382Capital Expenditures, (C$ millions)Conventional
North America natural gas $ 495North America crude oil and NGLs 1,220North Sea 170Offshore West Africa 580Property acquisitions, dispositions and midstream 85
Conventional 2,550Horizon Oil Sands Project
Phase 1 – Construction 90Phase 1 – Operating inventory, capital inventory and commissioning costs 200Phase 2/3 – Tranche 2 135Sustaining capital 100Capitalized interest and other costs 75
Horizon Oil Sands Project 600
Total Capital Expenditures $ 3,150
Average Annual Cost Data
Royalty OperatingRate Cost
Natural Gas - North America (mcf) 8 - 10% $1.05 - 1.15Crude oil and NGLs (bbl)
North America – Conventional 10 - 15% $15.00 - 15.50North America – Oil Sands Mining* 1 - 2% $35.00 - 40.00North Sea - $26.50 - 28.50Offshore West Africa 6 - 9% $12.50 - 14.50
*Royalties are payable on the bitumen production
Other InformationCash income and other taxes (C$ millions)
Sask. Resources Surcharge/Capital Tax $20 - 30Current income taxes – North America $20 - 40Current income taxes – International $320 - 400Petroleum Revenue Tax (PRT) $75 - 100
Effective tax rate on adjusted earnings 26% - 30% Depletion, depreciation and ARO accretion charge ($/BOE) $12.80 - 13.20Midstream cash flow (C$ millions) $40 - 50Average corporate interest rate 4.15% - 4.45%
Third Quarter 2009
CORPORATE GUIDANCE
Allan P. Markin, Chairman
John G. Langille, Vice-Chairman
Steve W. Laut, President & Chief Operating Officer
Douglas A. Proll,Chief Financial Officer &Senior Vice-President, Finance
Corey B. Bieber,Vice-President, Finance &Investor Relations(403) 517-6878
Trevor Kratz,Manager, Investor Relations(403) 517-7349
Heidi Christensen Brown,Investor Relations Analyst (403) 514-7911
CANADIAN NATURAL RESOURCES LIMITED2500, 855 - 2nd Street S.W.,
Calgary, Alberta, T2P 4J8
Telephone: (403) 514-7777Facsimile: (403) 514-7888
Email: [email protected]
THE PREMIUM VALUE DEFINED GROWTH INDEPENDENT
WWW.CNRL.COM