54
Corporate Finance -2 Topic 1. Introduction. Corporate Finance and Corporate Analysis thru the Organization’s Life Cycle (LCO) Irina Ivashkovskaya, Ordinary professor, Head of finance academic department, Head of Corporate finance research center National Research University – Higher school of economics, Moscow, Russia

Corporate Finance -2 Topic 1. Introduction. Corporate Finance and Corporate Analysis thru the Organization’s Life Cycle (LCO) Irina Ivashkovskaya, Ordinary

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: Corporate Finance -2 Topic 1. Introduction. Corporate Finance and Corporate Analysis thru the Organization’s Life Cycle (LCO) Irina Ivashkovskaya, Ordinary

Corporate Finance -2Topic 1. Introduction.

Corporate Finance and Corporate Analysis

thru the Organization’s Life Cycle (LCO)

Irina Ivashkovskaya,Ordinary professor, Head of finance academic department,

Head of Corporate finance research center National Research University – Higher school of economics,

Moscow, Russia

Page 2: Corporate Finance -2 Topic 1. Introduction. Corporate Finance and Corporate Analysis thru the Organization’s Life Cycle (LCO) Irina Ivashkovskaya, Ordinary

Outline

• What is corporate finance about? • How does corporate finance contribute to corporate decision –

making? Financial model of analytical framework versus accounting model of corporate decisions’ analysis

• Financial dimensions of the firm thru its OVERALL life cycle: liquidity, risk and fundamental value.

• Financial dimensions of the firm: ANNUAL approach. • How to identify the LCO stage with financial measures? • The challenges for financial analytical framework

Page 3: Corporate Finance -2 Topic 1. Introduction. Corporate Finance and Corporate Analysis thru the Organization’s Life Cycle (LCO) Irina Ivashkovskaya, Ordinary

CORPORATION AS A FRAMEWORK

ATTRACTING CAPITAL

CREATING FINANCE’ PRODUCTS

CAPITAL MARKET TOOLKIT:

-the variety

-the costs

-the mix

FINANCIAL DECISIONS OF ANY FIRM AND CORPORATE FINANCE APPROACH

CAPITAL MARKET PRODUCTS CREATION :- benefit stream- risks- innovations- packing the firm

Minimizing costs Maximizing prices

Page 4: Corporate Finance -2 Topic 1. Introduction. Corporate Finance and Corporate Analysis thru the Organization’s Life Cycle (LCO) Irina Ivashkovskaya, Ordinary

CORPORATE FINANCE VISION

THE PRINCIPLES

IMPERFECT MARKETPERFECT MARKET

VALUE IS CREATED ONLY BY INVESTMENTS

NO ARBITRAGE

INVESTOR IS IRRELEVANT

-Capital structure

-Payout policies

INVESTORS IS NOT IRRELEVANT capital structure and payout policies matter interactions of investing and financing

Financial innovations

Capital market efficiency

Page 5: Corporate Finance -2 Topic 1. Introduction. Corporate Finance and Corporate Analysis thru the Organization’s Life Cycle (LCO) Irina Ivashkovskaya, Ordinary

MODELLING CORPORATE FINANCIAL DECISIONS

ATTRACTING CAPITAL CREATING PRODUCTS

AGENCY/MOTIVES

INFORMATIONASSYMETRY

EQUITY VERSUS DEBTHOLDERS

CONTRACTS CONTRACTS

CHANGE IN VALUE

KNOWING WHAT DOES NOT MATTER IN A PERFECT WORLD WE’LL KNOW WHAT DOES MATTER BEYOND IT BY IMPLICATIONS

RATIONAL EXPECTATIONSinvestors managers

Page 6: Corporate Finance -2 Topic 1. Introduction. Corporate Finance and Corporate Analysis thru the Organization’s Life Cycle (LCO) Irina Ivashkovskaya, Ordinary

CORPORATE FINANCE CONTRIBUTION TO DECISION-MAKING

THE CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK TO CORPORATE DECISION’S ANALYSIS:

THE ELEMENTS

The criteria for performance analysis

The measures of performance

The measures for corporate goals and strategies’ perfromance

Page 7: Corporate Finance -2 Topic 1. Introduction. Corporate Finance and Corporate Analysis thru the Organization’s Life Cycle (LCO) Irina Ivashkovskaya, Ordinary

WHAT IS CORPORATE FINANCE?

The conceptual framework to corporate decision’s analysis:

the elements

THE CRITERIA FOR PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS

THE MEASURES OF PERFORMANCE

Opportunity cost of capital Risk-return trade-off and cost of capital (WACC)

Economic profit

Economic profit metrics Economic spread (over the required returns)

Page 8: Corporate Finance -2 Topic 1. Introduction. Corporate Finance and Corporate Analysis thru the Organization’s Life Cycle (LCO) Irina Ivashkovskaya, Ordinary

WHAT IS CORPORATE FINANCE?

The conceptual framework to corporate decision’s analysis:

the elements

THE MEASUREMENT OF CORPORATE GOALS AND STRATEGIC RESULTS

Market value creation

Agency conflicts

Information asymmetry

Value creation Value Destruction? Value Extraction

True value creation

Page 9: Corporate Finance -2 Topic 1. Introduction. Corporate Finance and Corporate Analysis thru the Organization’s Life Cycle (LCO) Irina Ivashkovskaya, Ordinary

КЕ (%)

Accounting model

Financial model

0 1 2

ROE (%)

ROE<0 ROE>0

Income and capital gainsLoss and capital losses

Loss and capital losses

Income and capital gains

+-

ROE<КЕ ROE>КЕ

-1-2

• Cumulative data

•Backward looking

•Static

•Flows

•Forward looking

•Dynamic

Page 10: Corporate Finance -2 Topic 1. Introduction. Corporate Finance and Corporate Analysis thru the Organization’s Life Cycle (LCO) Irina Ivashkovskaya, Ordinary

ВыхаживаниеВыхаживание

МладенМладен--чествочество

Смерть во младенчестве

Ловушка основателя илиловушка семейственности

«Давай«Давай--Давай»Давай»

ЮностьЮность

Несостоявшийся предприниматель

Преждевременное старение

РасцветРасцвет СтабильностьСтабильность

АристократизмАристократизм

РанняяРанняя бюрократизациябюрократизация

БюрократизацияБюрократизация

СмертьСмерть

Рост Старение Время

ВыхаживаниеВыхаживание

МладенМладен--чествочество

Смерть во младенчестве

Ловушка основателя илиловушка семейственности

«Давай«Давай--Давай»Давай»

ЮностьЮность

Несостоявшийся предприниматель

Преждевременное старение

РасцветРасцвет СтабильностьСтабильность

АристократизмАристократизм

РанняяРанняя бюрократизациябюрократизация

БюрократизацияБюрократизация

СмертьСмерть

Рост Старение Время

LIFE CYCLE STAGES OF ORGANIZATION

I.INTRODUCTORY STAGE, ENTRY

II.GROWTH III.MATURITY IV.DECLINETime

Activity

Page 11: Corporate Finance -2 Topic 1. Introduction. Corporate Finance and Corporate Analysis thru the Organization’s Life Cycle (LCO) Irina Ivashkovskaya, Ordinary

FINANCIAL DIMENSIONS OF THE FIRM WITHIN ITS LIFE CYCLE

LIQUIDITY

INVESTMENT RISK FUNDAMENTAL VALUE

Page 12: Corporate Finance -2 Topic 1. Introduction. Corporate Finance and Corporate Analysis thru the Organization’s Life Cycle (LCO) Irina Ivashkovskaya, Ordinary

Transactions affecting directly net income

Transactions affecting asset's structure

Transactions affecting the totals

Net income

+ non-cash charges

-net increase in current assets

+net increase in current liabilities

+ Proceeds from sale of assets

- Capital expenditure

+Increase in short term &long term debt

+Owners investments

- Debt repayment (principal)

- Dividends

CASH FLOWS

CASH FLOW FROM OPERATING

ACTIVITYCF FROM INVESTING ACTIVITY

CF FROM FINANCING ACTIVITY

NET CASH FLOW

Page 13: Corporate Finance -2 Topic 1. Introduction. Corporate Finance and Corporate Analysis thru the Organization’s Life Cycle (LCO) Irina Ivashkovskaya, Ordinary

Выхаживание

Младенчество

Давай-давай

Юность Расцвет Стабильность

Аристократизм

Ранняя

бюрократизация

Бюрократизация

Поток ДС от операционной деятельности

+

-

Поток ДС от инвестиционной деятельности

Поток ДС от финансирования

CASH FLOWS AT THRU LCO

INTRODUCTORY STAGE

GROWTH MATURITY DECLINE

OPERATING CASH FLOW

INVESTING CASH FLOW

FINANCING CASH FLOW

Page 14: Corporate Finance -2 Topic 1. Introduction. Corporate Finance and Corporate Analysis thru the Organization’s Life Cycle (LCO) Irina Ivashkovskaya, Ordinary

ЭТАП СТАНОВЛЕНИЯЭТАП СТАНОВЛЕНИЯ

14

Компания “Российские навигационные технологии”

Чистая прибыль (NI) = 78,1 млн. руб.

Долг/собственный капитал = 0,01

Доходность собственного капитала (ROE) = 20,5 %

Рыночная капитализация = 1,6 млрд. руб.

Div = 0

Возраст = 6 лет

Page 15: Corporate Finance -2 Topic 1. Introduction. Corporate Finance and Corporate Analysis thru the Organization’s Life Cycle (LCO) Irina Ivashkovskaya, Ordinary

ЭТАП СТАНОВЛЕНИЯЭТАП СТАНОВЛЕНИЯ

Российские Навигационные Технологии2010 2009 2008

Поток от осн.деятельности (CF Operating), млн. руб. (116.6) (49.2) (37.8)

Поток от инвет.деят. (CF Investment), млн. руб. (176.2) 15.7 (82.6)

Поток от финансирования (CF Financing), млн. руб. 299.1 47.8 125.6

15

Page 16: Corporate Finance -2 Topic 1. Introduction. Corporate Finance and Corporate Analysis thru the Organization’s Life Cycle (LCO) Irina Ivashkovskaya, Ordinary

Выхаживание

Младенчество

Давай-давай

Юность Расцвет Стабильность

Аристократизм

Ранняя

бюрократизация

Бюрократизация

Поток ДС от операционной деятельности

+

-

Поток ДС от инвестиционной деятельности

Поток ДС от финансирования

ДВИЖЕНИЕ ПОТОКОВ ДЕНЕЖНЫХ СРЕДСТВ НА ДВИЖЕНИЕ ПОТОКОВ ДЕНЕЖНЫХ СРЕДСТВ НА СТАДИЯХ ЖЦОСТАДИЯХ ЖЦО

ЭТАП

СТАНОВЛЕНИЯ

ЭТАП

РОСТА

ЭТАП

ЗРЕЛОСТИ

ЭТАП

СТАРЕНИЯ

РНТ

16

Page 17: Corporate Finance -2 Topic 1. Introduction. Corporate Finance and Corporate Analysis thru the Organization’s Life Cycle (LCO) Irina Ivashkovskaya, Ordinary

ЭТАП РОСТАЭТАП РОСТА

17

Компания розничная сеть “Магнит”

Чистая при быль (NI) = 320,3 млн. долл.

Долг/собственный капитал = 0,49

Доходность собственного капитала (ROE) = 18,6 %

Рыночная капитализация = 8,7 млрд. долл.

Дивиденды к чистой прибыли = 3,5 %

Возраст = 17 лет

Page 18: Corporate Finance -2 Topic 1. Introduction. Corporate Finance and Corporate Analysis thru the Organization’s Life Cycle (LCO) Irina Ivashkovskaya, Ordinary

ЭТАП РОСТАЭТАП РОСТА

Розничная сеть “Магнит”

2010 2009 2008 2007

CF Operating, млн. долл. 428.7 376.2 420.1 242.4CF Investment, млн. долл. -1230.0 -448.1 -575.4 -568.7CF Financing, млн. долл. 565.2 339.2 200.2 354.8

18

Page 19: Corporate Finance -2 Topic 1. Introduction. Corporate Finance and Corporate Analysis thru the Organization’s Life Cycle (LCO) Irina Ivashkovskaya, Ordinary

Выхаживание

Младенчество

Давай-давай

Юность Расцвет Стабильность

Аристократизм

Ранняя

бюрократизация

Бюрократизация

Поток ДС от операционной деятельности

+

-

Поток ДС от инвестиционной деятельности

Поток ДС от финансирования

ЭТАП

СТАНОВЛЕНИЯ

ЭТАП

РОСТА

ЭТАП

ЗРЕЛОСТИ

ЭТАП

СТАРЕНИЯ

Магнит

ДВИЖЕНИЕ ПОТОКОВ ДЕНЕЖНЫХ СРЕДСТВ НА ДВИЖЕНИЕ ПОТОКОВ ДЕНЕЖНЫХ СРЕДСТВ НА СТАДИЯХ ЖЦОСТАДИЯХ ЖЦО

19

Page 20: Corporate Finance -2 Topic 1. Introduction. Corporate Finance and Corporate Analysis thru the Organization’s Life Cycle (LCO) Irina Ivashkovskaya, Ordinary

ЭТАП ЗРЕЛОСТЬЭТАП ЗРЕЛОСТЬ

“Аэрофлот” российские авиалинии

2010 2009 2008 2007

CF Operating, млн. руб. 739.3 228.5 472.5 216.5CF Investment, млн. руб. -193.5 -299.3 -439.3 -417.3CF Financing, млн. руб. 13.9 48.3 44.6 100.9

20

Page 21: Corporate Finance -2 Topic 1. Introduction. Corporate Finance and Corporate Analysis thru the Organization’s Life Cycle (LCO) Irina Ivashkovskaya, Ordinary

•Чистая прибыль (NI) = 12,1 млрд. руб.

•Долг/собственный капитал = 0,69

•ROE = 10,7 %

•Рыночная капитализация = 2,89 млрд. долл.

•Дивиденды к чистой прибыли= 10 %

•Возраст = 17 лет

ЭТАП ЗРЕЛОСТИ: ЭТАП ЗРЕЛОСТИ: КОМПАНИЯ “АЭРОФЛОТ”

21

Page 22: Corporate Finance -2 Topic 1. Introduction. Corporate Finance and Corporate Analysis thru the Organization’s Life Cycle (LCO) Irina Ivashkovskaya, Ordinary

Выхаживание

Младенчество

Давай-давай

Юность Расцвет Стабильность

Аристократизм

Ранняя

бюрократизация

Бюрократизация

Поток ДС от операционной деятельности

+

-

Поток ДС от инвестиционной деятельности

Поток ДС от финансирования

ЭТАП

СТАНОВЛЕНИЯ

ЭТАП

РОСТА

ЭТАП

ЗРЕЛОСТИ

ЭТАП

СТАРЕНИЯ

Аэрофлот

ДВИЖЕНИЕ ПОТОКОВ ДЕНЕЖНЫХ СРЕДСТВ НА ДВИЖЕНИЕ ПОТОКОВ ДЕНЕЖНЫХ СРЕДСТВ НА СТАДИЯХ ЖЦОСТАДИЯХ ЖЦО

22

Page 23: Corporate Finance -2 Topic 1. Introduction. Corporate Finance and Corporate Analysis thru the Organization’s Life Cycle (LCO) Irina Ivashkovskaya, Ordinary

•NI = -276,3 млн. руб.

•Долг/собственный капитал = 2,18

•ROE = 15,3 %

•Рыночная капитализация = 0,34 млрд. руб.

•Div = 0 %

•Возраст = 95 лет

•Отношение рыночной цены акции к ее бухгалтерской оценке = 0,01

ЭТАП СТАРЕНИЯ: ЭТАП СТАРЕНИЯ: АМО “ЗИЛ”

23

Page 24: Corporate Finance -2 Topic 1. Introduction. Corporate Finance and Corporate Analysis thru the Organization’s Life Cycle (LCO) Irina Ivashkovskaya, Ordinary

Business risk Financing risk

Commercial risks

Currency Exchange risksManagement depth

■ key person

■ transparency and disclosure

Investment risk

■Diversification

by product

by channel

by segment

■Power of supplier

■ Market position

■ Expense structure

operating leverage

Solvency (short term)

Financial leverage

Coverage:

■ income coverage ratios

■ cash flow coverage ratios ■ assets coverage ratios

Page 25: Corporate Finance -2 Topic 1. Introduction. Corporate Finance and Corporate Analysis thru the Organization’s Life Cycle (LCO) Irina Ivashkovskaya, Ordinary

LCO AND INVESTMENT RISKS

INVESTMENT FLEXIBILITY

MANAGERIAL FLEXIBILITY

FINANCING FLEXIBILITY

• TERMS OF FINANCING

• AMOUNTS OF FINANCING

• DECREASE IN REQUIRED RATES OF RETURN

• INCREASE IN THE VARIETY OF EFFICIENT PROJECTS

Page 26: Corporate Finance -2 Topic 1. Introduction. Corporate Finance and Corporate Analysis thru the Organization’s Life Cycle (LCO) Irina Ivashkovskaya, Ordinary

WHAT IS VALUE?

DISCOUNTED FUTURE BENEFITS STREAM

KEY STRATEGIC AND OPERATIONAL DRIVERS

REQUIRED RATES AT THE CAPITAL MARKETS

KEY DRIVERSKEY DRIVERS

Page 27: Corporate Finance -2 Topic 1. Introduction. Corporate Finance and Corporate Analysis thru the Organization’s Life Cycle (LCO) Irina Ivashkovskaya, Ordinary

VALUE

Income

+ Non cash charges

-Capex

-Net working capital investment

= FREE CASH FLOW

COST OF CAPITAL

INVESTMENT RISK CORE COMPENTENCIES

STRATEGIC (PLANNING)

HORIZON

INVESTED CAPITAL (CAPITAL EMPLOYED)INVESTED CAPITAL (CAPITAL EMPLOYED)

Page 28: Corporate Finance -2 Topic 1. Introduction. Corporate Finance and Corporate Analysis thru the Organization’s Life Cycle (LCO) Irina Ivashkovskaya, Ordinary

CORPORATE VALUE COMPONENTS

CORPORATE VALUE

DISCOUNTED CASH FLOWS

WHITHIN STRATEGIC HORIZON

TERMINAL CASH FLOWBEYOND HORIZON

CASH FLOWS RISKEXPECTED CF

FROM GROWTH

OPPORTUNITIES

RISK IN GROWTH

OPPORTUNITIES

CURRENT OPERATIONS VALUE

COV

FUTURE GROWTHOPPORTUITIESVALUE (VFGO)

Assets in place, AIPGrowth opportunities, GO

+

+

FINANCIAL APPROACH

STRATEGIC APPROACH

Page 29: Corporate Finance -2 Topic 1. Introduction. Corporate Finance and Corporate Analysis thru the Organization’s Life Cycle (LCO) Irina Ivashkovskaya, Ordinary

VALUE COMPONENTS AND LCO

INTRODUCTORY STAGE

ASSETS IN PLACE?

VALUE BASE?

FUNCTIONING ASSETS RISKS?

GROWTH OPPORTUNITY RISKS?

RATIO = (ASSETS IN PLACE )/ (GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES)?

Page 30: Corporate Finance -2 Topic 1. Introduction. Corporate Finance and Corporate Analysis thru the Organization’s Life Cycle (LCO) Irina Ivashkovskaya, Ordinary

VALUE COMPONENTS AND LCO

GROWTH

• ASSETS IN PLACE?

• VALUE BASE?

• FUNCTIONING ASSETS RISKS?

• GROWTH OPPORTUNITY RISKS?

RATIO = (ASSETS IN PLACE )/ (GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES)?

Page 31: Corporate Finance -2 Topic 1. Introduction. Corporate Finance and Corporate Analysis thru the Organization’s Life Cycle (LCO) Irina Ivashkovskaya, Ordinary

VALUE COMPONENTS AND LCO

MATURITY

• ASSETS IN PLACE?

• VALUE BASE?

• FUNCTIONING ASSETS RISKS?

• GROWTH OPPORTUNITY RISKS?

RATIO = (ASSETS IN PLACE )/ (GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES)?

Page 32: Corporate Finance -2 Topic 1. Introduction. Corporate Finance and Corporate Analysis thru the Organization’s Life Cycle (LCO) Irina Ivashkovskaya, Ordinary

VALUE COMPONENTS AND LCO

DECLINE

• ASSETS IN PLACE?

• VALUE BASE?

• FUNCTIONING ASSETS RISKS?

• GROWTH OPPORTUNITY RISKS?

RATIO = (ASSETS IN PLACE )/ (GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES)?

Page 33: Corporate Finance -2 Topic 1. Introduction. Corporate Finance and Corporate Analysis thru the Organization’s Life Cycle (LCO) Irina Ivashkovskaya, Ordinary

FINANCIAL DIMENSIONS OF THE FIRM: WITHIN THE YEAR

FREE CF

COST OF CAPITAL ECONOMIC PROFIT

(RESIDUAL INCOME)

Page 34: Corporate Finance -2 Topic 1. Introduction. Corporate Finance and Corporate Analysis thru the Organization’s Life Cycle (LCO) Irina Ivashkovskaya, Ordinary

CASH FLOWS FREE FOR INVESTORS AFTER ALL INVESTMENTS NEEDED FOR CORPORATE MARKET STRATEGY ARE CONSIDERED

FCFFFCFF EBIATD

NWCICapex

= +

- -Earnings before

interest but after tax

Depreciation

Net working capital

investmentCapital

expenditure

FINANCIAL DIMENSIONS OF THE FIRM: FREE CASH FLOWS TO THE

FIRM (FCFF)

Page 35: Corporate Finance -2 Topic 1. Introduction. Corporate Finance and Corporate Analysis thru the Organization’s Life Cycle (LCO) Irina Ivashkovskaya, Ordinary

FINANCIAL DIMENSIONS: HURDLE RATE

COST OF CAPITAL

RATE OF RETURN REQUIRED BY RATIONAL RISK AVERSE INVESTOR

DEPENDS ON:

INVESTMENT RISK

OPPORTUNITY COST OF CAPITAL OF INVESTORS

Page 36: Corporate Finance -2 Topic 1. Introduction. Corporate Finance and Corporate Analysis thru the Organization’s Life Cycle (LCO) Irina Ivashkovskaya, Ordinary

FINANCIAL DIMENSIONS: ECONOMIC PROFIT

NOPAT

CAPITAL CHARGE RESIDUAL INCOME- =

COST OF CAPITAL

RICEWACCROCE x)(ROCE - return on capital employed

WACC - weighted average cost of capital –

CE – capital employed RI - Residual income

NOPAT- Net operating profit after tax

Page 37: Corporate Finance -2 Topic 1. Introduction. Corporate Finance and Corporate Analysis thru the Organization’s Life Cycle (LCO) Irina Ivashkovskaya, Ordinary

Затраты на капитал

Доходность капитала

ЭТАП ЗАРОЖДЕНИЯ

ЭТАП РОСТА ЭТАП УМИРАНИЯ

ЭТАП СТАРЕНИЯ

Экономическая прибыль

LCO FINANCIAL CURVE

RESIDUAL INCOME

COST OF CAPITAL

TIME

Return on capital employed, ROCE

INTRODUCTORYSTAGE

GROWTH MATURITY DECLINE

Page 38: Corporate Finance -2 Topic 1. Introduction. Corporate Finance and Corporate Analysis thru the Organization’s Life Cycle (LCO) Irina Ivashkovskaya, Ordinary

LCO ANALYSIS

SALES GROWTH RATE

Miller, Friesen (1984)

AGE

GROWTH ABOVE 15% ; MATURITY BELW 15%;

BELOW 10 YEARS - ENTRY

EXPERT ‘ ESTIMATES

6 YEARS AT EACH STAGE ON AVERAGE

Page 39: Corporate Finance -2 Topic 1. Introduction. Corporate Finance and Corporate Analysis thru the Organization’s Life Cycle (LCO) Irina Ivashkovskaya, Ordinary

5 STAGES: GROWTH,STABLE GROWTH,MATURITY,

BEGINNING OF DECLINE,DECLINE

5 YEARS MEAN:•Revenue growth rate, •Dividends• Capital expenditure

• RATING BY METRIC• SUM OF RATINGS• INDUSTRY FACTORS

Age

IDENTIFICATION OF LCO STAGE BY FINANCIAL MEASURES: RATING APPROACH

MetricsAnthony,Ramesh (1992)

Pashley,Phillippatos (1990) FINANCIAL RATIOS

CLUSTERS

SIMPLE APPROACH

EXTENDED APPROACH

Page 40: Corporate Finance -2 Topic 1. Introduction. Corporate Finance and Corporate Analysis thru the Organization’s Life Cycle (LCO) Irina Ivashkovskaya, Ordinary

RATING APPROACH (Black,1998)

INTRODUCTORY STAGE (START-UP)

•SALES REVENUE NO LONGER THAN 1 YEAR

•NO RESTRUCTURING

GROWTH

•20% highest ratings by growth rates and capex

•20% lowest ratings by dividends &age

MATURITY STAGE

•AVERAGERATINGS BY GROWTH RATES AND CAPEX

•HIGHEST RATINGS BY DIVIDENDS

DECLINE

•20% LOWEST RATINGS BY CAPEX AND GROWTH RATES

•HIGHESTRATINGS BY AGE

•ABOVE AVERAGE RATINGS BY DIVIDENDS

Page 41: Corporate Finance -2 Topic 1. Introduction. Corporate Finance and Corporate Analysis thru the Organization’s Life Cycle (LCO) Irina Ivashkovskaya, Ordinary

STUDY OF LCO OF AMERICAN FIRMS BY RATINGS

Black,1998

Public firms 1977-1995, COMPUSTAT

22082 annual observations

Introductory stage : 75 firms

Growth : 2905

Maturity : 2384

Decline : 3961

Firms in decline are concentrated within the periods of macro shocks (1980-1983,1989-1992)

Page 42: Corporate Finance -2 Topic 1. Introduction. Corporate Finance and Corporate Analysis thru the Organization’s Life Cycle (LCO) Irina Ivashkovskaya, Ordinary

FINANCIAL MEASURES AT THE LCO STAGES

GROWTH RATE 142% 38% 8% -13% 10%

Debt-to-equity 7% 42% 50% 16% 39%

Net income (mln doll.) - 0.36 0.66 16.15 -0.54 1.90Return on equity

7% 6% 13% -12% 7%

Capex to total assets 1.76 0.14 0.07 0.02 0.06

R&D mln ) 0.18 0.41 4.53 0.51 1.26

Age (years) 2.4 16.2 37.4 57.6 42.8Dividends payout (%) 0 0 36% 0 0

Equity market cap(mln doll.) 16.52 21.95 208.47 10.91 46.11

START UP GROWTH MATURITY DECLINEMEAN

Black

Page 43: Corporate Finance -2 Topic 1. Introduction. Corporate Finance and Corporate Analysis thru the Organization’s Life Cycle (LCO) Irina Ivashkovskaya, Ordinary

CONTRIBUTION TO THE MARKET CAPITALIZATION AT DIFFERENT STAGES OF LCO

INTRODUCTORY STAGE , START UP

• earnings&operating cash flows not significant

• Investing cash flows significant at 5%, financing cash flows at 10%

• all cash flows significant at 5%

• earnings not significant

•earnings, operating and financing cash flows AT 5%

•FINANCING CASH FLOW NEGATIVE

•ALL TYPES OF CASJ FLOWS AT 5% уровнеearnings not significant

GROWTH

MATURITY

DECLINE

Page 44: Corporate Finance -2 Topic 1. Introduction. Corporate Finance and Corporate Analysis thru the Organization’s Life Cycle (LCO) Irina Ivashkovskaya, Ordinary

CASH FLOWS AND MARKET CAPITALIZATION AT DIFFERENT STAGES OF LCO

Black:

OPERATING CF:

significant except start ups

all components significant

payments to suppliers&personnel not significant at maturity

FINANCING CF:

siginificant, high correlation at growth & maturity

INVESTING CF:

significant, high correlation at growth & start up

Page 45: Corporate Finance -2 Topic 1. Introduction. Corporate Finance and Corporate Analysis thru the Organization’s Life Cycle (LCO) Irina Ivashkovskaya, Ordinary

CASH FLOW APPROACH : DICKINSON

500 FIRMS COMPUSTAT

THE CASH FLOW PATTERNS (+/-)

MONITORING THRU TIME

COMPARISON TO THE PRECEEDING PATTERNS AND SEARCH FOR BREAK-EVEN IN THE PATTERNS

Page 46: Corporate Finance -2 Topic 1. Introduction. Corporate Finance and Corporate Analysis thru the Organization’s Life Cycle (LCO) Irina Ivashkovskaya, Ordinary

COMPARISON BY GROWTH RATES BREAK-EVEN POINTS

4 STAGES: from IPO, quarterly data

Growth, maturity, mature growth, decline

At minimum 2 years per stage

Minimum 2 stages

GROWTH RATES:

- Adjusted to the industry (it is subtracted)

-Moving average for 4 quarters

-Р33 and Р67 (percentile)

MATURITY: after 9 quarters needs 6 quarters with growth rates LOWER темп выручки than in Р67

DECLINE: after 9 quarters , 6 quarters with growth rates темп выручки LOWER than Р33

Yan,2006

MATURE GROWTH: after 9quarters , 6 quarters growth rates HIGHER than Р67

Page 47: Corporate Finance -2 Topic 1. Introduction. Corporate Finance and Corporate Analysis thru the Organization’s Life Cycle (LCO) Irina Ivashkovskaya, Ordinary

Corporate finance and the challenges for corporate analysis

Page 48: Corporate Finance -2 Topic 1. Introduction. Corporate Finance and Corporate Analysis thru the Organization’s Life Cycle (LCO) Irina Ivashkovskaya, Ordinary

SCALE OF FEASIBLE STATES OF THE MARKET

FRACTION OF VOLATILITY THAT IS PRICE-DRIVEN

0% 100%

ORDER IN

THE MARKET

TURBULENCE AND CHAOS

COMPLEXITY

RATIONAL FINANCE

BEHAVIORAL FINANCE

DEDUCTION and mathematical modeling

PREVAILS

induction prevails

“fly with feathers” :

Process, store info and fly in response

THE NEW FINANCE

Almost no price effect associated with investor’s interaction

Price changes are almost unrelated to changes in real economic information set

• Market efficiency – special rational case

Impact of interactions:-Interpretation of signals-Irrational expectations

Page 49: Corporate Finance -2 Topic 1. Introduction. Corporate Finance and Corporate Analysis thru the Organization’s Life Cycle (LCO) Irina Ivashkovskaya, Ordinary

MODELLING CORPORATE FINANCIAL DECISIONS

Irrational expectations

INVESTORS’ BIASES:

Market inefficiency (mispricing)

Arbitrage

Follow mispricing – behavior less than fully rational

But managers make unbiased forecasts about the future :

Take for granted prices fully reflect the info about fundamental values

decisions in their best interestsBUT GOVERNANCE apply

MANAGERIAL BIASES:

Less than fully rational behavior following mispricingOptimism and overconfidenceExploit and use mispricing in decision-making

Page 50: Corporate Finance -2 Topic 1. Introduction. Corporate Finance and Corporate Analysis thru the Organization’s Life Cycle (LCO) Irina Ivashkovskaya, Ordinary

FINANCIAL ANALYSIS IN INDUSTRIAL ECONOMY

TYPE OF BUSINESS MODELS

KEY RESOURCES

KEY ANALYTICAL FOCUS

CRITERIA FOR PERFORMANCE

TANGIBLE AND FINANCIAL ASSETS, LIMITED INTANGIBLES

SEEKING FOR ALLOACATIVE EFFICIENCY

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS ANALYSIS

SHAREHOLDER VALUE (SHV) AND AGENCY

INFORMATION MODEL OF THE FIRM

ACCOUNTING PROFIT AND CASH FLOWS

ACCOUNTING PROFIT BASED

Page 51: Corporate Finance -2 Topic 1. Introduction. Corporate Finance and Corporate Analysis thru the Organization’s Life Cycle (LCO) Irina Ivashkovskaya, Ordinary

FINANCAL ANALYSIS IN THE KNOWLEDGE ECONOMY

TYPE OF THE BUSINESS MODELS

KEY RESOURCES

KEY ANALYTICAL FOCUS

CRITERIA

INTELLECTUAL CAPITAL

DYNAMIC CAPABILITIES

TRAMFORMATION EFFICIENCIES

CASH FLOWS, INTELLECTUAL CAPITAL

SHV VERSUS STAKEHOLDER VALUE :AGENT AND ITS INTELLECTUAL CAPITAL CONTRIBUTION

INFORMATION MODEL OF THE FIRM

ECONOMIC PROFIT (RISK ADJUSTED APPROACH), KNOWLEDGE EARNINGS

VALUE REPORTING

NON-FINANCIAL REPORTING

Page 52: Corporate Finance -2 Topic 1. Introduction. Corporate Finance and Corporate Analysis thru the Organization’s Life Cycle (LCO) Irina Ivashkovskaya, Ordinary

КОРПОРАТИВНЫЕ ФИНАНСЫ-2. СТРУКТУРА КУРСА

РАСТУЩИЕ РЫНКИ

НОВЫЕ ГИПОТЕЗЫ, КОНЦЕПЦИИ

СТАТЬИ В МЕЖД ЖУРНАЛАХ

1. ЗАТРАТЫ НА КАПИТАЛ –

РАЗВИТИЕ СИГНАЛЬНЫХ МОДЕЛЕЙ

РАЗВИТИЕ АГЕНТСКИХ МОДЕЛЕЙ

СОЕДИНЕНИЕ АГЕНТСКИХ И СИГНАЛЬНЫХ МОДЕЛЕЙ

ИНТЕЛЛЕКТУАЛЬНЫЙ КАПИТАЛ

СЛОЖНЫЕ СТРУКТУРЫ КАПИТАЛА

РАСТУЩИЕ РЫНКИ: НОВЫЕ МОДЕЛИ, АДАПТАЦИЯ МОДЕЛЕЙ

2. СОВРЕМЕННЫЕ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЯ СТРУКТУРЫ КАПИТАЛА

3. СОВРЕМЕННЫЕ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЯ ПОЛИТИКИ ВЫПЛАТ-

4. ФИНАНСОВАЯ АРХИТЕКТУРА ФИРМЫ

ИНТЕГРИРОВАННЫЙ ПОДХОД

5. АНАЛИЗ УПРАВЛЕНЧЕСКОЙ ГИБКОСТИ: МЕТОД РЕАЛЬНЫХ ОПЦИОНОВ

эмпирические исследования классических концепций: -технологии

-результаты

Page 53: Corporate Finance -2 Topic 1. Introduction. Corporate Finance and Corporate Analysis thru the Organization’s Life Cycle (LCO) Irina Ivashkovskaya, Ordinary

ЗАДАНИЕ К СЕМИНАРУ 1: 1. Изучить статьи по методам идентификации стадий ЖЦО С ИСПОЛЬЗОВАНИЕМ ФИНАНСОВЫХ ПОКАЗАТЕЛЕЙ. ПОДГОТОВИТЬ ПРЕЗЕНТАЦИЮ (ОБЗОР) СТАТЕЙ:-КЛАССИФИЦИРОВАТЬ МЕТОДЫ-ВЫДЕЛИТЬ СИЛЬНЫЕ И СЛАБЫЕ СТОРОНЫ-СФОРМУЛИРОВАТЬ СУЖДЕНИЕ О ВОЗМОЖНОСТИ ПРИМЕНЕНИЯ К РОССИЙСКИМ КОМПАНИЯМ

-2. ВЫБРАТЬ 4 РОС ПУБЛИЧНЫЕ КОМПАНИИ И РАСПОЛОЖИТЬ ИХ НА КРИВОЙ ЖЦО ТАК, ЧТОБЫ ОНИ ПРЕДСТАВЛЯЛИ РАЗНЫЕ СТАДИИ-ИЗУЧИВ ИХ ФИНАНСОВЫЕ ДАННЫЕ,А ТАКЖЕ КАЧЕСТВЕННУЮ ИНФОРМАЦИЮ О НИХ, ДОКАЗАТЬ, ЧТО ОНИ ПРИНАДЛЕЖАТ ТОЙ ИЛИ ИНОЙ СТАДИИ-В ПОСЛЕДУЮЩИХ ТЕМАХ КОМАНДА ОСТАВИТ ДВЕ ИЗ 4 КОМПАНИЙ ДЛЯ ДРУГИХ ЗАДАНИЙ-ФОРМА ПРЕЗЕНТАЦИИ РЕЗУЛЬТАТОВ:- ПО П 1 И 2 СЛАЙДЫ-ПО П1 РЕФЕРАТ (ДО 5-7 СТР), ССЫЛКИ НА ИСТОЧНИКИ ВЫПОЛНЯТЬ АКАДЕМИЧЕСКИ (СМ СЕРЬЕЗНЫЙ ЗАП ЖУРНАЛ)-ПО П2 АНАЛИТИЧЕСКАЯ ЗАПИСКА 2-3 СТР-РЕЗУЛЬТАТЫ СДАЮТСЯ В ДЕНЬ СЕМИНАРА: В ДЕПАРТАМЕНТ ФИНАНСОВ, КОМАНДА ДЕЛАЕТ ЕДИНУЮ ПАПКУ «СЕМИНАР1 ЖЦО-КОМАНДА №....»-ПАПКА ЗАПИСЫВАЕТСЯ В МОЙ КОМПЬЮТЕР СОТРУДНИКАМИ ДЕПАРТАМЕНТА

Page 54: Corporate Finance -2 Topic 1. Introduction. Corporate Finance and Corporate Analysis thru the Organization’s Life Cycle (LCO) Irina Ivashkovskaya, Ordinary

HOMEASSIGNMENT 1

• Make the teams of 4 participants (mixed)• Find 4 public firms and look thru their financial

annual reports and data for 3 years• Identify the LCO stages with the help of financial

measures, especially cash flows dynamics• Prepare power point presentation with the

arguments to prove your opinion on firm’s LCO stages

• Prepare short analytical report (2-3 pages) with the references on the data sources