25
Upside Case Projected Fiscal Year Ending (USD$ in thousands, Except per Share Data) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Income Statement Revenues $45,000 ### ### ### ### Gross Profit $15,000 ### ### ### ### EBITDA $4,650 ### ### ### ### EBIT $2,743 ### ### ### ### Net Income $2,243 ### ### ### ### Balance Sheet Total Assets $16,507 ### ### ### ### Current Liabilities $4,845 ### ### ### ### Debt $5,000 ### ### ### ### Total Liabilities $9,845 ### ### ### ### Total Equity $6,662 ### ### ### ### Cashflow Cash Inflow/(Outflow) from Operation ### ### ### Cash Inflow/(Outflow) from Investing ### ### ### Cash Inflow/(Outflow) from Financing ### $0 $0 Net Cash Inflow/(Outflow) ### ### ### Opening Cash Balance ### ### ### Closing Cash Balance ### ### ### Inc. (Dec.) in Net Working Capital $664 ($53) ($52) Capital Expenditures ### ### ### Free Cash Flow ### ### ### Projected Fiscal Year Ending Key Financial Ratios 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Profitability Revenue Growth NA 44.4% 10.0% 12.0% 12.0% Gross Margin 33.3% 46.2% 55.0% 57.0% 59.0% EBITDA Margin 10.3% 23.2% 31.0% 32.0% 34.0% EBIT Margin 6.1% 17.7% 18.5% 16.7% 18.2% Net Income Margin 6.1% 17.7% 18.5% 16.7% 18.2% EBIT / Total Assets [pre-tax ROA] 16.6% 30.1% 21.1% 17.7% 17.9% EBIT (1-Tax) / Total Assets [ROA] -- 17.1% 17.7% 15.0% 15.2% Net Income / Book Value of Equity [ROE] -- 33.4% 28.9% 22.8% 22.0% Liquidity Current Ratio 2.4 1.3 1.6 2.2 2.9 Quick Ratio 0.6 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.0 Days Sales in Receivables 7.3 9.6 10.0 10.0 10.0 Days COGS in Payables 30.4 31.3 75.0 75.0 75.0 Days COGS in Inventory 29.7 66.9 90.0 90.0 90.0 Financing Total Debt / Total Capitalization 0.3x 0.1x 0.1x 0.1x 0.1x EBITDA / Net Interest 9.3x 30.1x 44.3x 51.3x 61.0x EBIT / Net Interest 5.5x 23.0x 26.4x 26.7x 32.7x (EBITDA - CapEx) / Net Interest 9.3x 30.1x 6.2x 36.3x 45.1x Net Debt / Net Capitalization 0.3x 0.1x NA NA NA Net Debt / EBITDA 2.1x 1.3x NA NA NA

Copy of Private Equity Buy Side Financial Model and Valuation

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: Copy of Private Equity Buy Side Financial Model and Valuation

Upside Case

Projected Fiscal Year Ending March 31,(USD$ in thousands, Except per Share Data) 2000 2001 2002 2003 Income Statement Revenues $45,000 $65,000 $71,500 $80,080 Gross Profit $15,000 $30,000 $39,325 $45,646 EBITDA $4,650 $15,050 $22,165 $25,626 EBIT $2,743 $11,479 $13,199 $13,341

Net Income $2,243 $6,250 $10,668 $10,915 Balance Sheet Total Assets $16,507 $38,171 $62,493 $75,551 Current Liabilities $4,845 $14,474 $20,600 $22,743 Debt $5,000 $5,000 $5,000 $5,000 Total Liabilities $9,845 $19,474 $25,600 $27,743

Total Equity $6,662 $18,697 $36,893 $47,808 Cashflow Cash Inflow/(Outflow) from Operation $20,297 $23,146 Cash Inflow/(Outflow) from Investing ($19,050) ($7,500) Cash Inflow/(Outflow) from Financing $7,528 $0

Net Cash Inflow/(Outflow) $8,775 $15,646 Opening Cash Balance $2,500 $11,275 Closing Cash Balance $11,275 $26,921 Inc. (Dec.) in Net Working Capital $664 ($53) Capital Expenditures $19,050 $7,500 Free Cash Flow $1,247 $15,646

Projected Fiscal Year Ending March 31,Key Financial Ratios 2000 2001 2002 2003 ProfitabilityRevenue Growth NA 44.4% 10.0% 12.0% Gross Margin 33.3% 46.2% 55.0% 57.0% EBITDA Margin 10.3% 23.2% 31.0% 32.0% EBIT Margin 6.1% 17.7% 18.5% 16.7%

Net Income Margin 6.1% 17.7% 18.5% 16.7% EBIT / Total Assets [pre-tax ROA] 16.6% 30.1% 21.1% 17.7% EBIT (1-Tax) / Total Assets [ROA] -- 17.1% 17.7% 15.0%

Net Income / Book Value of Equity [ROE] -- 33.4% 28.9% 22.8% Liquidity Current Ratio 2.4 1.3 1.6 2.2 Quick Ratio 0.6 0.3 0.6 1.3 Days Sales in Receivables 7.3 9.6 10.0 10.0 Days COGS in Payables 30.4 31.3 75.0 75.0 Days COGS in Inventory 29.7 66.9 90.0 90.0 Financing Total Debt / Total Capitalization 0.3x 0.1x 0.1x 0.1x EBITDA / Net Interest 9.3x 30.1x 44.3x 51.3x EBIT / Net Interest 5.5x 23.0x 26.4x 26.7x (EBITDA - CapEx) / Net Interest 9.3x 30.1x 6.2x 36.3x Net Debt / Net Capitalization 0.3x 0.1x NA NA

Net Debt / EBITDA 2.1x 1.3x NA NA

Page 2: Copy of Private Equity Buy Side Financial Model and Valuation

Projected Fiscal Year Ending March 31,2004 2005 2006

$89,690 $100,452 $112,507 $52,917 $60,271 $67,504 $30,494 $35,158 $39,377 $16,350 $25,433 $29,684

$13,472 $21,193 $24,806

$91,384 $115,384 $143,539 $25,104 $27,910 $31,259

$5,000 $5,000 $5,000 $30,104 $32,910 $36,259

$61,280 $82,474 $107,280

$27,565 $30,828 $34,357 ($7,950) ($8,800) ($10,000)

$0 $0 $0

$19,615 $22,028 $24,357 $26,921 $46,536 $68,564 $46,536 $68,564 $92,921

($52) ($91) ($143) $7,950 $8,800 $10,000

$19,615 $22,028 $24,357

Projected Fiscal Year Ending March 31,2004 2005 2006

12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 59.0% 60.0% 60.0% 34.0% 35.0% 35.0% 18.2% 25.3% 26.4%

18.2% 25.3% 26.4% 17.9% 22.0% 20.7% 15.2% 18.7% 17.6%

22.0% 25.7% 23.1%

2.9 3.5 4.0 2.0 2.6 3.1

10.0 10.0 10.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 90.0 90.0 90.0

0.1x 0.0x 0.0x 61.0x 70.3x 78.8x 32.7x 50.9x 59.4x 45.1x 52.7x 58.8x NA NA NA NA NA NA

Page 3: Copy of Private Equity Buy Side Financial Model and Valuation

Company ABCCap Table

Existing Shareholders '000 of shares % Shareholding % Shareholding Amount RaisedDate Equity Valuation(Pre) (Post) $'000 (Post) $'000

A 1,406 29.9% 24.9% B 1000 21.2% 17.7% C 500 10.6% 8.9% D 1500 31.9% 26.6% E 300 6.4% 5.3%

4,706 100.0% 83.3% ### 3/31/1995 2,000

New shareholdersCiti 941 16.7% Co-investor X 0 0.0%

941 16.7% ### 3/31/2001 45,176

5,647 100.0%

Page 4: Copy of Private Equity Buy Side Financial Model and Valuation

Equity Valuation(Post) $'000

Page 5: Copy of Private Equity Buy Side Financial Model and Valuation

Company ABCKey Financial AssumptionsUpside Case

(USD$ in thousands, Except per Share Data)Acquisition Terms Leveraged Debt Financing Terms Entry Valuation

Shares to be Acquired Primary Secondary Leveraged Debt Amount 0 Valuation (Acquisition Price / Stake) Number of Shares ('000) 941 0 Maturity (years) 0 Price per Share 8.00 Repayment (0 Bullet / 1 Amortizing) 1 Price to Earnings Cost of Shares 7,528 0 Prepayment Penalty None Price to EBITDACommon Shares Outstanding (post) 5,647 Base Rate 10 years Treasury Bond 7.00% Price to Sales RevenueAcquisition Stake 16.66% Spread 3.00% Price to Book ValueAcquisition Price 7,528 Interest Rate 10.00% Price per CustomerTransaction Fees 0 Arrangement Fee 0.0 Assumed Liabilities (Existing Debt) 0 Exit Market ValuationTotal Acquisition Cost 7,528 Taxation

Price to EarningsAcquisition Capital Structure Corporate Tax Rate (average, effective) 19.85% Price to EBITDA

Withholding Tax Rate (if applicable) 0.00% Price to Sales RevenueEquity Investment 100.00% 7,528 Price to Book ValueLeveraged Debt 0.00% 0 Currency & Interest Rate Assumption Price per CustomerTotal 100.00% 7,528 Leverage (Debt / Equity) 0.00 Base Currency USD$

Long Term 10 year Treasury Bond 7.00%Cost of Capital Long Term Credit Spread 1.00%

Long Term Discount Rate 8.00%Industry Beta (unlevered) 0.80Risk Free Rate (10 year Treasury Bond) 7.0% Future Financing AssumptionEquity Risk Premium 7.50%Cost of Equity 13.00% % financed by new debt 15%Debt-to-Capitalization 15.0% % by new equity 85%Equity-to-Capitalization 85.0% WACC 12.0% Adjust for illiquidity/small company 15.0%Adjusted WACC 27.0%

Page 6: Copy of Private Equity Buy Side Financial Model and Valuation

Valuation (Acquisition Price / Stake) 45,176

Current Year Prospective7.23 4.233.00 2.04

Price to Sales Revenue 0.70 0.63Price to Book Value 2.42 1.22Price per Customer N/A N/A

Exit Market Valuation

10.00 5.00

Price to Sales Revenue 1.00 Price to Book Value n.a.Price per Customer n.a.

Page 7: Copy of Private Equity Buy Side Financial Model and Valuation

Company ABCKey Operating AssumptionsUpside Case

Projected Fiscal Year Ending March 31,

(USD$ in thousands, Except per Share Data) ### 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Revenue Growth Rate - Product A -- -- 44.4% 10.0% 12.0% 12.0% COGS (excl. Deprec.) / Revenue - Product A ### 66.7% 53.8% 45.0% 43.0% 41.0% SG&A / Revenue ### 8.0% 8.0% 10.0% 11.0% 11.0% Other Operating Exp / Revenue ### 15.0% 15.0% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% Minority % Interest in Total Income ### 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Effective Tax Rate ### -- 43.1% 16.0% 15.0% 15.0% Days Sales in Receivables ### 7.3 9.6 10.0 10.0 10.0 Days COGS in Inventory ### 29.7 66.9 90.0 90.0 90.0 Other Current Assets / Revenues ### 13.3% 12.3% 16.4% 16.4% 16.4% Days COGS in Payables ### 30.4 31.3 75.0 75.0 75.0 Other Current Liabilities / Revenues ### 5.2% 17.7% 19.6% 19.6% 19.6% Increase in Other Long-Term Assets -- $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

Increase in Other Long-Term Liabilities -- 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1 Upside Case(1=Base Case, 2=Upside Case, 3=Downside Case)

Projected Year Ending December 31,Upside Case ### 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Revenue Growth Rate - Product A -- -- 44.4% 10.0% 12.0% 12.0% COGS (excl. Deprec.) / Revenue - Product A ### 66.7% 53.8% 45.0% 43.0% 41.0% SG&A / Revenue ### 8.0% 8.0% 10.0% 11.0% 11.0% Other Operating Exp. (Inc.) / Revenues ### 15.0% 15.0% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% Minority % Interest in Total Income ### 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Effective Tax Rate ### -- 43.1% 16.0% 15.0% 15.0% Days Sales in Receivables ### 7.3 9.6 10.0 10.0 10.0 Days COGS in Inventory ### 29.7 66.9 90.0 90.0 90.0 Other Current Assets / Revenues ### 13.3% 12.3% 16.4% 16.4% 16.4% Days COGS in Payables ### 30.4 31.3 75.0 75.0 75.0 Other Current Liabilities / Revenues ### 5.2% 17.7% 19.6% 19.6% 19.6% Increase in Other Long-Term Assets -- $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

Increase in Other Long-Term Liabilities -- 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Projected Year Ending December 31,Base Case ### 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Revenue Growth Rate - Product A -- -- 44.4% 10.0% 12.0% 12.0% COGS (excl. Deprec.) / Revenue - Product A ### 66.7% 53.8% 30.0% 27.0% 30.0% Revenue Growth Rate - Product A ### 8.0% 8.0% 10.0% 11.0% 11.0% Other Operating Exp. (Inc.) / Revenues ### 15.0% 15.0% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% Minority % Interest in Total Income ### 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Effective Tax Rate ### -- 43.1% 16.0% 15.0% 15.0% Days Sales in Receivables ### 7.3 9.6 10.0 10.0 10.0 Days COGS in Inventory ### 29.7 66.9 90.0 90.0 90.0 Other Current Assets / Revenues ### 13.3% 12.3% 16.4% 16.4% 16.4% Days COGS in Payables ### 30.4 31.3 75.0 75.0 75.0 Other Current Liabilities / Revenues ### 5.2% 17.7% 19.6% 19.6% 19.6% Increase in Other Long-Term Assets -- $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

Increase in Other Long-Term Liabilities -- 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Projected Year Ending December 31,Downside Case ### 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Revenue Growth Rate - Product A -- -- 44.4% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% COGS (excl. Deprec.) / Revenue - Product A ### 66.7% 53.8% 60.0% 60.0% 65.0% Revenue Growth Rate - Product A ### 8.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 13.0% Other Operating Exp. (Inc.) / Revenues ### 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% Minority % Interest in Total Income ### 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Effective Tax Rate ### -- 43.1% 16.0% 15.0% 15.0% Days Sales in Receivables ### 7.3 9.6 10.0 10.0 10.0 Days COGS in Inventory ### 29.7 66.9 90.0 90.0 90.0 Other Current Assets / Revenues ### 13.3% 12.3% 16.4% 16.4% 16.4% Days COGS in Payables ### 30.4 31.3 75.0 75.0 75.0

Page 8: Copy of Private Equity Buy Side Financial Model and Valuation

Other Current Liabilities / Revenues ### 5.2% 17.7% 19.6% 19.6% 19.6% Increase in Other Long-Term Assets -- $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

Increase in Other Long-Term Liabilities -- 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Page 9: Copy of Private Equity Buy Side Financial Model and Valuation

Projected Fiscal Year Ending March 31,

2005 2006

12.0% 12.0% 40.0% 40.0% 11.0% 11.0% 14.0% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0%

15.0% 15.0% 10.0 10.0 90.0 90.0 16.4% 16.4% 75.0 75.0 19.6% 19.6% $0.0 $0.0

0.0 0.0

Projected Year Ending December 31,2005 2006

12.0% 12.0% 40.0% 40.0% 11.0% 11.0% 14.0% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0%

15.0% 15.0% 10.0 10.0 90.0 90.0 16.4% 16.4% 75.0 75.0 19.6% 19.6% $0.0 $0.0

0.0 0.0

Projected Year Ending December 31,2005 2006

12.0% 12.0% 30.0% 30.0% 11.0% 11.0% 14.0% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0%

15.0% 15.0% 10.0 10.0 90.0 90.0 16.4% 16.4% 75.0 75.0 19.6% 19.6% $0.0 $0.0

0.0 0.0

Projected Year Ending December 31,2005 2006

5.0% 5.0% 65.0% 65.0% 14.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 0.0% 0.0%

15.0% 15.0% 10.0 10.0 90.0 90.0 16.4% 16.4% 75.0 75.0

Page 10: Copy of Private Equity Buy Side Financial Model and Valuation

19.6% 19.6% $0.0 $0.0

0.0 0.0

Page 11: Copy of Private Equity Buy Side Financial Model and Valuation

Company ABCIncome StatementUpside Case

Projected Fiscal Year Ending March 31,

(USD$ in thousands, Except per Share Data) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Revenue

Product A ### 65,000.0 71,500.0 80,080.0 89,689.6 100,452.4 112,506.6 Product B 0.0 0.0 Product C 0.0 0.0

Total Revenue ### $65,000.0 $71,500.0 $80,080.0 $89,689.6 $100,452.4 $112,506.6 COGSProduct A ### $35,000.0 $32,175.0 $34,434.4 $36,772.7 $40,180.9 $45,002.7 Product B 0.0 0.0 Product C 0.0 0.0 Total COGS ### $35,000.0 $32,175.0 $34,434.4 $36,772.7 $40,180.9 $45,002.7

Gross Profit ### $30,000.0 $39,325.0 $45,645.6 $52,916.9 $60,271.4 $67,504.0

Gross Margin 33.3% 46.2% 55.0% 57.0% 59.0% 60.0% 60.0% SG&A ### 5,200.0 7,150.0 8,808.8 9,865.9 11,049.8 12,375.7 Others Operating Expenses ### 9,750.0 10,010.0 11,211.2 12,556.5 14,063.3 15,750.9

EBITDA (Operating Cash Flow) ### $15,050.0 $22,165.0 $25,625.6 $30,494.5 $35,158.3 $39,377.3 EBITDA Margin 10.3% 23.2% 31.0% 32.0% 34.0% 35.0% 35.0%

Depreciation ### 3,571.0 8,965.5 12,284.3 14,144.5 9,725.0 9,693.8 Amortization of Intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

EBIT (Operating Income) ### $11,479.0 $13,199.5 $13,341.3 $16,349.9 $25,433.3 $29,683.6 EBIT (Operating) Margin 6.1% 17.7% 18.5% 16.7% 18.2% 25.3% 26.4% Other Expenses (Income):

Interest Income 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Interest Expense 500.0 500.0 500.0 500.0 500.0 500.0 500.0

Pre-Tax Income ### $10,979.0 $12,699.5 $12,841.3 $15,849.9 $24,933.3 $29,183.6

Income Taxes 0.0 4,729.4 2,031.9 1,926.2 2,377.5 3,740.0 4,377.5

Net Income ### $6,249.6 $10,667.6 $10,915.1 $13,472.5 $21,193.3 $24,806.0

Minority Interest in Net Income 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Adjusted Net Income ### $6,249.6 $10,667.6 $10,915.1 $13,472.5 $21,193.3 $24,806.0

Preferred Dividends 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Net Income to Common ### $6,249.6 $10,667.6 $10,915.1 $13,472.5 $21,193.3 $24,806.0 Extraordinary Charges (Income) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Adjusted Net Income to Common ### $6,249.6 $10,667.6 $10,915.1 $13,472.5 $21,193.3 $24,806.0

Page 12: Copy of Private Equity Buy Side Financial Model and Valuation

Company ABCBalance SheetUpside Case

Projected Fiscal Year Ending March 31,

(USD$ in thousands, Except per Share Data) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Cash and Equivalents $2,157.2 $2,500.0 $11,274.9 $26,920.9 $46,535.9 $68,563.7 $92,920.7 Accounts Receivable 901.0 1,717.8 1,958.9 2,194.0 2,457.2 2,752.1 3,082.4 Inventory 2,442.6 6,413.3 7,933.6 8,490.7 9,067.2 9,907.6 11,096.5 Prepaid Expenses 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Current Assets 6,000.0 8,000.0 11,701.5 13,105.7 14,678.4 16,439.8 18,412.6

Total Current Assets ` 11,501 18,631 32,869 50,711 72,739 97,663 125,512

Net Property, Plant & Equipment 5,006.2 19,539.8 29,624.3 24,840.0 18,645.5 17,720.5 18,026.8 Intangible Assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Long-Term Assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total Assets 16,507 38,171 62,493 75,551 91,384 115,384 143,539

Payables $2,500.0 $3,000.0 $6,611.3 $7,075.6 $7,556.0 $8,256.4 $9,247.1

Deposits Received $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 Other Current Liabilities 2,345.2 11,473.8 13,989.2 15,667.9 17,548.0 19,653.8 22,012.3

Total Current Liabilities 4,845 14,474 20,600 22,743 25,104 27,910 31,259

Term loan 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Debt 5,000.0 5,000.0 5,000.0 5,000.0 5,000.0 5,000.0 5,000.0

Total Debt 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000

Deferred Taxes 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Minority Interest ` 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Long-Term Liabilities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total Liabilities 9,845 19,474 25,600 27,743 30,104 32,910 36,259

Share Capital 163.2 206.7 206.7 206.7 206.7 206.7 206.7Share Premium 9,944.8 9,944.8 9,944.8 9,944.8 9,944.8 9,944.8 9,944.8Additional Equity 7,528.0 7,528.0 7,528.0 7,528.0 7,528.0Convertible Preferred Stock 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Common Stockholders' Equity (3,446.2) 8,545.7 19,213.3 30,128.4 43,600.8 64,794.2 89,600.2

Total Equity 6,661.8 18,697.2 36,892.8 47,807.9 61,280.3 82,473.7 107,279.7

Total Liabilities & Equity 16,507.0 38,171.0 62,493.3 75,551.3 91,384.4 115,383.8 143,539.1

Balance Check 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

EBITDA / Net Interest Exp. 9.3 30.1 44.3 - -

Page 13: Copy of Private Equity Buy Side Financial Model and Valuation

Company ABCCash Flow StatementUpside Case

Projected Fiscal Year Ending March 31,

(USD$ in thousands, Except per Share Data) 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2008

Net Income to Common #REF! $2,242.9 $6,249.6 $10,667.6 $10,915.1 $13,472.5 $21,193.3 $24,806.0 #REF!Depreciation #REF! 1,907.1 3,571.0 8,965.5 12,284.3 14,144.5 9,725.0 9,693.8 0.0 Amortization of Intangibles #REF! 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Non-Cash Interest Expense 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 #REF!Increase in Deferred Taxes -- -- -- 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Minority Interest in Net Income #REF! 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Gain on Disposal of Fixed Asset (from Other Non Op Inc.) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Funds From Operations 19,633 23,199 27,617 30,918 34,500 #REF!

(Inc.) Dec. in Acct. Rec. (241.1) (235.1) (263.3) (294.9) (330.3) 0.0 (Inc.) Dec. in Inventory (1,520.3) (557.1) (576.6) (840.4) (1,188.9) 0.0 (Inc.) Dec. in Prepaid Expenses 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (Inc.) Dec. in Other Current Assets (3,701.5) (1,404.2) (1,572.7) (1,761.4) (1,972.8) 0.0 Inc. (Dec.) in Account Payables 3,611.3 464.3 480.5 700.3 990.8 Inc. (Dec.) in Other Current Liabilities 2,515.4 1,678.7 1,880.1 2,105.8 2,358.5 0.0

Inc. (Dec.) in Net Working Capital 664 -53 -52 -91 -143

Cash Flow From Operations 20,297 23,146 27,565 30,828 34,357 #REF!

Capex (19,050.0) (7,500.0) (7,950.0) (8,800.0) (10,000.0) Maintenance Capex 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Proceeds from Disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Free Cash Flow 1,247 15,646 19,615 22,028 24,357

ST Debt Issuance (Repay.) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Exist. Debt Issuance (Repay.) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Debt Issuance (Repayments) 0 0 0 0 0 0.0

Common Stock Dividends 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 #REF!Convert. Preferred Issuance -- -- -- 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Equity (Reduction) Issuance 0.0 0.0 0.0 7,528.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 #REF!Other -- 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Change in Cash and Equivalents $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 8,775 15,646 19,615 22,028 24,357 #REF!

Beginning Cash and Equivalents 0.0 0.0 2,157.2 2,500.0 11,274.9 26,920.9 46,535.9 68,563.7 0.0

Ending Cash and Equivalents 2,500.0 11,275 26,921 46,536 68,564 92,921 #REF!

-- --

Financing required 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -- Financed by debt 15% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 --

Financed by equity 85% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 --

Page 14: Copy of Private Equity Buy Side Financial Model and Valuation

2009 2010 2011

#REF! #REF! #REF!0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

#REF! #REF! #REF!0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

#REF! #REF! #REF!

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

#REF! #REF! #REF!

0.0 0.0 0.0

#REF! #REF! #REF!0.0 0.0 0.0

#REF! #REF! #REF!0.0 0.0 0.0

#REF! #REF! #REF!

0.0 0.0 0.0

#REF! #REF! #REF!

-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --

-- -- --

Page 15: Copy of Private Equity Buy Side Financial Model and Valuation

Company ABCCapEx and Depreciation ScheduleUpside Case

Projected Fiscal Year Ending March 31,

(USD$ in thousands, Except per Share Data) 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Beginning Net PP&E $19,539.8 $29,624.3 $24,840.0 $18,645.5 $17,720.5 $18,026.8 #VALUE!Capital Expenditures 19,050.0 7,500.0 7,950.0 8,800.0 10,000.0 0.0 #REF!Depreciation (8,965.5) (12,284.3) (14,144.5) (9,725.0) (9,693.8) #VALUE! #VALUE!

Ending Net PP&E ### ### $24,840.0 $18,645.5 $17,720.5 $18,026.8 #VALUE! #VALUE!

Capital Expenditures

Plant A $500.0 $500.0 $1,500.0 $1,600.0 $1,700.0 $1,800.0 $2,500.0

Plant B $600.0 $600.0 $1,550.0 $1,700.0 $1,850.0 $2,000.0 $2,500.0

Plant C $1,000.0 $1,000.0 $6,000.0 $2,200.0 $2,400.0 $3,000.0 $3,000.0

Plant D $1,000.0 $1,000.0 $10,000.0 $2,000.0 $2,000.0 $2,000.0 $2,000.0

Total Capital Expenditure $3,100.0 $3,100.0 $19,050.0 $7,500.0 $7,950.0 $8,800.0 $10,000.0 $0.0 #REF!

Capital Expenditure / Total Revenues 6.89% 4.77% 26.64% 9.37% 8.86% 8.76% 8.89%

Book Depreciation

Existing PP&E Life 3.0 Years Salvage Value $0.0 New CapEx Life 4.0 Years

Times Declining 1.0x Land / Non-Depreciable Ite 0.0 Times Declining 1.0x

Existing Net PP&E $19,539.8 $6,584.3 $6,584.3 $6,513.3 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

2002 $19,050.0 $2,381.3 $4,762.5 $4,762.5 $4,762.5 $2,381.3 $0.0 $0.0

2003 7,500.0 $937.5 $1,875.0 $1,875.0 $1,875.0 937.5 0.0

2004 7,950.0 $993.8 $1,987.5 $1,987.5 1,987.5 993.8

2005 8,800.0 $1,100.0 $2,200.0 2,200.0 2,200.0

2006 10,000.0 $1,250.0 2,500.0 2,500.0

2007 0.0 0.0 0.0

2008 0.0 0.0

2009 0.0

2010 0.0

2011 0.0

Total Book Depreciation Expense $8,965.5 $12,284.3 $14,144.5 $9,725.0 $9,693.8

Page 16: Copy of Private Equity Buy Side Financial Model and Valuation

Company ABCIntangibles ScheduleUpside Case

Projected Fiscal Year Ending March 31,

(USD$ in thousands, Except per Share Data) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Book Amortization

Intangibles 0 Years $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 Intangible 2 0 Years 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Intangible 3 0 Years 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Intangible 4 0 Years 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total Book Intangibles $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

Amortization of Intangibles $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 Amortization of Intangible 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Amortization of Intangible 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Amortization of Intangible 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total Book Amortization of Intangibles $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

Tax Amortization

Intangibles 40 Years ($0 = Non Tax-Deductible) $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 Intangible 2 0 Years 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Intangible 3 0 Years 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Intangible 4 0 Years 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total Tax Intangibles $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

Tax Amortization of Intangibles $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 Tax Amortization of Intangible 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Tax Amortization of Intangible 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Tax Amortization of Intangible 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total Tax Deductible Amortization of Intangibles $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

Page 17: Copy of Private Equity Buy Side Financial Model and Valuation

2010 2011

$0.0 $0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

$0.0 $0.0

$0.0 $0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

$0.0 $0.0

$0.0 $0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

$0.0 $0.0

$0.0 $0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

$0.0 $0.0

Page 18: Copy of Private Equity Buy Side Financial Model and Valuation

Company ABCDebt ScheduleUpside Case

Projected Fiscal Year Ending March 31,(Amounts in US$ 000s) 2002 2003 2004 2005 NEW BORROWINGS A

Opening balance $0 $0 $0 $0 Additions 0 0 0 0 Repayments 0 0 0 0 Ending balance $0 $0 $0 $0 Interest payment $0 $0 $0 $0 Total debt service (Interest+Principal) $0 $0 $0 $0

TERM LOAN B Opening balance $5,000 $5,000 $5,000 $5,000 Additions 0 0 0 0 Repayments 0 0 0 0 Ending balance $5,000 $5,000 $5,000 $5,000 Interest payment $500 $500 $500 $500 Total debt service (Interest+Principal) $500 $500 $500 $500

TERM LOAN C Opening balance $0 $0 $0 $0 Additions 0 0 0 0 Repayments 0 0 0 0 Ending balance $0 $0 $0 $0 Interest payment 0 0 0 0 Total debt service (Interest+Principal) $0 $0 $0 $0

TOTAL Opening Balance $5,000 $5,000 $5,000 $5,000 Ending Balance $5,000 $5,000 $5,000 $5,000

Total interest paid $500 $500 $500 $500

Page 19: Copy of Private Equity Buy Side Financial Model and Valuation

2006 Effective interest rate

$0 0 0

$0 $0 10.00%$0

$5,000 0 0

$5,000 $500 10.00%$500

$0 0 0

$0 0 10.00%

$0

$5,000 $5,000

$500

Page 20: Copy of Private Equity Buy Side Financial Model and Valuation

Company ABCFour Year Free Cash Flow AnalysisUpside Case

Terminal EBITDA Multiple Approach

Projected Fiscal Year Ending March 31,

US$ in thousands 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Net Income $10,667.6 $10,915.1 $13,472.5 $21,193.3 $24,806.0 1Net Interest Expense / (Income) 500.0 500.0 500.0 500.0 500.0 Marginal Tax Rate 16.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% Financing Tax Shield (80.0) (75.0) (75.0) (75.0) (75.0) Minority Interest in Net Income 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Earnings Before Interest $11,087.6 $11,340.1 $13,897.5 $21,618.3 $25,231.0 Depreciation and Amortization 8,965.5 12,284.3 14,144.5 9,725.0 9,693.8 Amortization of Intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Increase in Deferred Taxes 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Change in Net Working Capital 663.8 (53.4) (51.9) (90.6) (142.7) Capital Expenditures (19,050.0) (7,500.0) (7,950.0) (8,800.0) (10,000.0)

Unlevered Free Cash Flow $1,666.9 $16,071.0 $20,040.1 $22,452.7 $24,782.1

Terminal EBITDA $39,377.3 Terminal Adjusted Free Cash Flow $25,088.3

Terminal EBITDA Multiple Range Terminal EBITDA Multiple Range

4.0x 4.5x 5.0x 5.5x 6.0x 4.0x 4.5x 5.0x 5.5x 6.0x

Terminal Value Implied Terminal P/E Multiple

$157,509 $177,198 $196,887 $216,575 $236,264 9.9x 10.7x 11.5x 12.3x 13.1x

WACC Present Value of Firm Value WACC Equity Value as of 3/31/0126.0% $87,737 $93,934 $100,130 $106,327 $112,524 26.0% $85,237 $91,434 $97,630 $103,827 $110,024 26.5% 86,269 92,344 98,419 104,495 110,570 26.5% 83,769 89,844 95,919 101,995 108,070 27.0% 84,833 90,789 96,746 102,702 108,659 27.0% 82,333 88,289 94,246 100,202 106,159 27.5% 83,428 89,268 95,109 100,950 106,790 27.5% 80,928 86,768 92,609 98,450 104,290 28.0% 82,053 87,780 93,508 99,235 104,963 28.0% 79,553 85,280 91,008 96,735 102,463

WACC Implied Perpetuity Growth Rate WACC Terminal Value / Present Value

26.0% 8.9% 10.6% 11.9% 13.1% 14.0% 26.0% 56.5% 59.4% 61.9% 64.1% 66.1% 26.5% 9.3 11.0 12.4 13.5 14.5 26.5% 56.3% 59.2% 61.7% 64.0% 65.9% 27.0% 9.7 11.4 12.8 14.0 15.0 27.0% 56.2% 59.0% 61.6% 63.8% 65.8% 27.5% 10.2 11.9 13.3 14.4 15.4 27.5% 56.0% 58.9% 61.4% 63.6% 65.6% 28.0% 10.6 12.3 13.7 14.9 15.9 28.0% 55.8% 58.7% 61.3% 63.5% 65.5%

(a) Equity Value equals Firm Value less total straight and convertible debt, straight and convertible preferred stock and minority interest, plus cash, options and warrants proceeds and investments in unconsolidated subsidiaries.

(b) Equity Value per Share equals Equity Value divided by Diluted shares outstanding, before Treasury Stock Method share buy-back.

DCF Assumptions

Terminal Multiple Based on DCF Assumptions

Data Mid-Range Sensitivity Investment in Uncons. Subs. 0.0 1 2006 Revenue $112,506.6 1.0x 0.1x Minority Interest 0.0 2 2006 EBITDA 39,377.3 5.0 0.5 Terminal Year Net Debt ($87,920.7) 3 2006 Earnings 24,806.0 10.0 0.5 Terminal Year Net Income 24,806.0

Latest Fiscal Year End 3/31/01

2 2006 EBITDA $39,377.3 5.0x 0.5x Valuation Date 3/31/01 Implied Days Before Valuation Date 0

Implied Days Left After Valuation Date 365

Page 21: Copy of Private Equity Buy Side Financial Model and Valuation

Company ABCIRR AnalysisUpside Case

US$000, except per share data

Summary AssumptionsEntry Amount $7,528.0 Exchange Rate 1.0

Current Market Price $0.00 Net Debt @ 2006 ($87,920.7)

Premium to Market 0.0% 2006E EBITDA $39,377.3 Investment Price per Share $8.00 2006E Sales $112,506.6 Shares Purchased ('000) 941.0 Assumed Investment Date 3/31/2001Total Shares Outstanding (Post) 5,647.0

% of New Shares Issued 16.7%

As of 3/31 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Investment Return Calculation2006E EBITDA Incremental financing IRR

5.0x ($7,528.0) $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $47,459.5 44.5% 6.0x (7,528.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 $54,021.2 48.3% 7.0x (7,528.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 $60,582.9 51.8%

2006E Sales1.0x ($7,528.0) $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $33,398.6 34.7% 1.1x (7,528.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 $35,273.4 36.2% 1.2x (7,528.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 $37,148.2 37.6%

Note: Assumes no tax leakage

Page 22: Copy of Private Equity Buy Side Financial Model and Valuation

Company ABCValuation Using ComparablesUpside Case

2001 ABC Peer A Peer B Peer C

(USD$ in thousands, Except per Share Data)

Balance Sheet

Total Assets 38,171 30,000 38,000 42,000

Long-term Debt 5,000 1,000 2,000 4,000

Net Worth 18,697 15,000 17,500 18,000

Income Statement

Revenues 65,000 54,000 60,000 45,000

EBITDA 15,050 36,000 38,000 34,000

Net Income 6,250 23,000 20,000 21,000

Market Data

Shares Outstandings ('000) 5,647 5,000 5,000 5,000

Share Price 8.0 30 40 55

Number of Customers 650,000 600,000 500,000 600,000

Equity Valuation/Market Cap. 45,176 150,000 200,000 275,000

Net Debt 2,500 50,000 100,000 200,000

Enterprise Value 47,676 200,000 300,000 475,000

Earnings Growth (CAGR past 3 years) 22% 6% 8% 10%

2001 ABC Peer A Peer B Peer C

Earnings Growth (CAGR past 3 years) 22% 6% 8% 10%

Price-Earning Ratio 7.23 6.52 10.00 13.10 9.87

EV / EBITDA 3.17 5.56 7.89 13.97 9.14

EV / Sales 0.73 3.70 5.00 10.56 6.42

Price to Book (Equity) 2.42 10.00 11.43 15.28 12.24

EV / Customer 73.35 333.33 600.00 791.67 575

Note: Peer companies are those public companies with similar nature of business of target firm .

Industry Average

5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% -

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

*

EPS Growth

01 P

/E

Page 23: Copy of Private Equity Buy Side Financial Model and Valuation

Valuation Using Venture Capital MethodUpside Case

Assumptions:

(USD$ in thousands, Except per Share Data)

Target Rate of Return (IRR) 15%

Investment Amount (US$'MM) 7,528.00

Percentage of Dilution in ESOP 10%

Percentage of Dilution in IPO 15%

Percentage of Dilution in other Rounds Prior to IPO 0%

Average PE Ratio 9.9

Total Current Share Outstanding 4,706

Exit Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

(USD$ in thousands, Except per Share Data)

Net Income 10,668 10,915 13,472 21,193 24,806

Terminal Value 105,314 107,758 133,004 209,227 244,893

Discounted Terminal Value 91,577 81,480 87,453 119,626 121,755

Required Final Percentage Ownership 8.22% 9.24% 8.61% 6.29% 6.18%

Required Current Percentage Ownership 10.40% 11.69% 10.89% 7.96% 7.82%

Number of New Shares 546 623 575 407 399

Price per New Share ($) 13.78 12.09 13.09 18.50 18.85

Implied Pre-money Valuation 64,865 56,883 61,604 87,038 88,721

Implied Post-money Valuation 72,393 64,411 69,132 94,566 96,249

Page 24: Copy of Private Equity Buy Side Financial Model and Valuation

Control Page

General Model Information

Company Name Company ABC Date Market Price $0.00 12/30/1899

52 Week High $0.00 12/30/1899

52 Week Low $0.00 12/30/1899

Currency USD$

Dollars In thousands Enter units in lower case

Dollar Header (USD$ in thousands, Except per Share Data)

Historical Year 2001 Year of Last Full Year of Historical Data Use LTM data Yes

Fiscal Year End Month 3 March Fiscal Year End Month : 1 = Jan, 2 = Feb, etc.. Fiscal Year End Day 31 Enter Last Day of Fiscal Year, ex. 31 Date Header Projected Fiscal Year Ending March 31, Acquiror Latest Full Year of Historical Financia 3/31/2001 Acquiror's Latest Full Year of Historical Financials End Date

#REF!

Page 25: Copy of Private Equity Buy Side Financial Model and Valuation

34812