Copy of Model-Africa

8/8/2019 Copy of Model-Africa

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/copy-of-model-africa 1/23

May-2010Africa 500000 ha

This document is a template with assumptions

Please ensure that the assumptions are correct for your specific project

Pieter Hoff

+31 654 340 410

© Wout Hoff

Financial model for

reforestation projects

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]



Groasis Financial model for a reforestation project Copyright Wout Hoff

NOTES

In the 'sensitivity analysis' the columns 'conservative' and 'optimistic' are not interactive. Only the column 'base' is interactiv

values marked in blue are calculated automatically; do not amend these cells.

values marked in red are taken from the sheet 'Notes and Assumptions'; do not amend these cells.

Sheets

Front page Cover page

Notes and Assumptions Guidance note and regional assumptions for cost and employment calcul

Input and Output Overview of key project information (financials, planning)

Workings Financial model

Annex 1 - Timber prices Graphical presentation of development of timber prices over project dura

Annex 2 - Bushes harvest prices Graphical presentation of development of bushes harvest prices over proj

Annex 3 - Carbon credit prices Graphical presentation of development of carbon credit prices over proje

Annex 4 - FCF Graphical presentation of development of Free Cash Flow

Annex 5 - Plant scheme Graphical presentation of potential planting scheme for 1 ha

Annex 6 - Employment Graphical presentation of manpower needed during project lifetime

Model, calculations, values and assumptions have been validated by Forestry Service Group (www.forestryservicegroup.com)

ASSUMPTIONS Units ingle value

Region Africa Europe USA fix cost days

Category value

Annual inflation rate costs % 5.7% 2.1% 2.2%

Cost of land (if freehold) USD/ha 100 350 250

Land lease USD/ha 0.10 70 50

Value of land at end of project USD/ha 2500 10000 7500

Land preparation cost USD/ha 40 140 120 20 2

Custodial management cost USD/ha 80 230 200 50 3

Costprice labour USD/day 10 60 50

Custodial management cost USD/ha 100 350 300 50 5

Maintenance cost trees and bushes - year 2-8 USD/ha 200 700 600 100 10

Maintenance cost trees and bushes - from year 9 USD/ha 100 350 300 50 5Harvesting cost timber - harvest until yr 20 USD/ha 250 750 650 150 10

Harvesting cost timber - harvest from yr 21 USD/ha 210 510 450 150 6

Harvesting cost bushes annual production (fruit/nut USD/ha 500 1500 1300 300 20

Portfolio model

Start of planting

Project 1 2011

Project 1 2012

Project 2 2013

Project 3 2014

Project 4 2015

Project 5 2016

Project 6 2017

Project 7 2018

Project 8 2019Project 9 2020

Project 10 2021

Number of projects 10

This sheet lists the values which are market red in the Input and Output sheet.




with 'input and output'

ation

tion

ect duration

t duration




OUTPUT Units 1 Project

Project size ha 50,000

Project duration years 35

Cost of capital % 10%

Tax rate % 20%

Net Present Value (NPV) million USD 1,947Internal Rate of Return (IRR) % 26.2%Capital employed million USD (348)Payback (break even) years 7

Tonnes of CO2 captured over project lifetime million tonnes 17.5Cost per tonne of CO2 (investment only) USD/tonne 19.90NPV generated per tonne of CO2 USD/tonne 111.25Employment generated for 35 years (average) FTE 12,422






O&M costs (annual cost)

Overhead and management USD/yr 712,500

Custodial management cost USD/ha 100

Maintenance cost trees and bushes - year 2-8 USD/ha 200

Maintenance cost trees and bushes - from year 9 USD/ha 100

Harvesting cost timber - harvest until yr 20 USD/ha 250

Harvesting cost timber - harvest from yr 21 USD/ha 210

Harvesting cost bushes annual production (fruit/nuts) USD/ha 500

Labour needed to remove 1 waterbox minutes 3

Costprice labour to remove 1 waterbox USD/waterbox 0.06

Total cost waterbox removal USD/waterbox 0.07

Total cost waterbox removal per ha USD/ha 145

Unforeseen % 2%

FSC - Admin cost (certificate) USD 25,000

FSC - Project lifetime admin and control costs USD 10,000

Carbon - Project lifetime admin costs (only if carbon USD/ha 2.0

Carbon - Project lifetime control costs (only if carbon USD/ha 4.0

Harvest from trees and bushes

Survival rate trees - after planting % 90%

Survival rate trees - after first harvest % 95%

Survival rate trees - after second harvest % 95%

Amount of timber not harvested due to death of trees % 14.4%

Hardwood - Timber price in year of planting USD/m3 400

Softwood - Timber price in year of planting USD/m3 150

Price discount of timber of interim harvest 1 and 2 % 50%

Indexation of timber prices - annual 1.0%

First interim timber harvest in year 10

Amount of trees harvested in first harvest % of trees 36%

Timber production per tree in first harvest m3 0.30

Second interim timber harvest in year 20

Amount of trees harvested in second harvest % of trees 17%

Timber production per tree in second harvest m3 0.70

Third interim timber harvest in year 25

Amount of trees harvested in third harvest % of trees 16%

Timber production per tree in third harvest m3 1.00

Last timber harvest in year 35

Amount of timber remaining for last harvest % of trees 16%

Timber production per tree in last harvest m3 1.00

First bushes harvest (fruit/nuts) in year 5

Annual production per bush after first harvest kg 2.00

Increase of production per bush after first harvest % per year 3.0%

Price of product harvested from bushes (at planting) USD/kg 1.00Indexation of bushes harvest prices - annual 3.0%

Carbon Credits (CDM / VER)

Carbon credits included yes

Start of Carbon credits revenue year 2

CO2 absorption per year tonnes/ha 10

1carbon credit t of CO2 1

Carbon credit price USD 4.00

Indexation of carbon prices % 5%

Amount of credits that can be sold % 80%




Financial structure NOT INCLUDED

Equity 30.0%

Debt 60.0%

Government grant 10.0%

Principal (size of loan) USD

Tenor (loan duration) 25

Grace period (how many years free of repayment) 1

Debt cost (fixed rate)

Arrangement and committment fees 1.0%

Book depreciation, years 10

Equity investment USD

Cost of capital 7.0%

Size of grant USD

Tax

Corporate tax 20.0%

Depreciation NOT INCLUDED

Depreciation method linearDepreciation years 10

Annual depreciation USD

OUTPUT - DETAIL Units Single value

Employment

In year 1

Baseline study hr 1,280

Land preparation hr 800,000

Custodial management hr 1,200,000

Planting hr 41,666,667

Carbon - Upfront admin and verification costs hr 4,800

Over project lifetime (yr 2 - 35)Overhead and management hr 8,800

Custodial management hr 70,000,000

Waterbox removal hr 25,000,000

Maintenance - year 2-8 hr 28,000,000

Maintenance - year 8 onwards hr 54,000,000

Harvesting of bushes (fruit/nuts) hr 240,000,000

Harvesting of trees (timber) - first interim harvest hr 1,440,000

Harvesting of trees (timber) - second interim harvest hr 684,000

Harvesting of trees (timber) - third interim harvest hr 389,880

Harvesting of trees (timber) - final harvest hr 389,880

FSC - Project lifetime admin and control hr 4,000

Carbon - Project lifetime admin and control hr 163,200

hr 231,876,253

hr

average FTE/yr for 35 years FTE 12,422

Secondary employment generated (waterboxes,processing annual harvest / timber harvest / supplychain) - additional 50%

lifetime 695,628,760


http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/copy-of-model-africa 8/23Groasis Financial mo

year of operation 1 2 3 4 5 6

Units Total 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Cash flow

Investment costs

Cost of land - freehold kUSD (5,000) (5,000)

Baseline study kUSD (132) (132)

Land preparation kUSD (2,114) (2,114)

Custodial management kUSD (4,228) (4,228)

Waterbox costs for trees kUSD (174,427) (174,427)

Waterbox costs for bushes kUSD (87,181) (87,181)

Planting costs trees kUSD (46,925) (46,925)

Planting costs bushes kUSD (26,976) (26,976)

Carbon - Upfront admin (only if CDM kUSD (159) (159)

Carbon - Upfront control (only if CD kUSD (1,110) (1,110)

Total investment costs kUSD (348,251) (348,251) - - - - -

O&M costs

Land lease - leasehold kUSD - - - - - - -

Overhead and management kUSD (78,750) (753) (796) (841) (889) (940) (994)

Custodial management kUSD (547,345) - (5,586) (5,905) (6,241) (6,597) (6,973)

Maintenance year 2-8 kUSD (92,926) - (11,172) (11,809) (12,482) (13,194) (13,946)

Maintenance from year 9 kUSD (500,882) - - - - - -

Removal of waterboxes kUSD (8,100) - (8,100) - - - -

Trees - first partial harvest kUSD (7,834) - - - - - -

Trees - second partial harvest kUSD (6,477) - - - - - - Trees - third partial harvest kUSD (6,820) - - - - - -

Trees - final harvest kUSD (11,872) - - - - - -

Bushes - annual harvesting kUSD (2,648,063) - - - - (32,985) (34,865)

Unforeseen kUSD (78,181) (15) (513) (371) (392) (1,074) (1,136)

FSC - Admin in year before first harv kUSD (41) - - - - - -

FSC - Project lifetime admin and con kUSD (985) - - - - - -

Carbon - Project lifetime admin cost kUSD (11,053) (106) (112) (118) (125) (132) (139)

Carbon - Project lifetime control cost kUSD (22,105) (211) (223) (236) (250) (264) (279)

Total O&M costs kUSD (4,021,435) (1,085) (26,503) (19,281) (20,380) (55,186) (58,332)

Income

Value of land kUSD 125,000 - - - - - -

Waterboxes residual value kUSD - - - - - - -

Trees - first interim harvest kUSD 1,193,141 - - - - - -

Trees - second interim harvest kUSD 1,460,750 - - - - - -

Trees - third interim harvest kUSD 4,167,142 - - - - - -

Trees - final harvest kUSD 12,274,980 - - - - - -

Bushes - annual harvest kUSD 13,722,358 - - - - 159,167 168,860

Carbon credits income kUSD 150,058 - 1,764 1,852 1,945 2,042 2,144

Total income kUSD 33,093,430 - 1,764 1,852 1,945 161,209 171,005

Tax

Earnings before tax kUSD 13,263,120 (349,336) (24,739) (17,429) (18,435) 106,023 112,673

Tax loss carry forward kUSD (2,091,517) - (349,336) (374,075) (391,504) (409,939) (303,916)

Taxable income kUSD 11,171,602 (349,336) (374,075) (391,504) (409,939) (303,916) (191,243)

Total Tax kUSD (2,652,624) - - - - - -

Free cash flow 10,610,496 (349,336) (24,739) (17,429) (18,435) 106,023 112,673

Discounted FCF 1,488,634 (317,578) (20,446) (13,094) (12,591) 65,832 63,601

Cumulative FCF (not discounted) 98,447,548 (349,336) (374,075) (391,504) (409,939) (303,916) (191,243)

NPV 1,946,870

IRR 26.2%

Capital employed (348,251)

Payback 7


http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/copy-of-model-africa 9/23Groasis Financial mo

19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040

- - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - -

(2,043) (2,159) (2,282) (2,412) (2,550) (2,695) (2,849) (3,011) (3,183) (3,364) (3,556) (3,75

(14,335) (15,152) (16,016) (16,929) (17,893) (18,913) (19,991) (21,131) (22,335) (23,609) (24,954) (26,37

- - - - - - - - - - -

(14,335) (15,152) (16,016) (16,929) (17,893) (18,913) (19,991) (21,131) (22,335) (23,609) (24,954) (26,37

- - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - -

- (6,477) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - (6,820) - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - -

(71,675) (75,760) (80,078) (84,643) (89,467) (94,567) (99,957) (105,655) (111,677) (118,043) (124,771) (131,88

(2,048) (2,294) (2,288) (2,418) (2,556) (2,702) (2,992) (3,019) (3,191) (3,372) (3,565) (3,76

- - - - - - - - - - -

(29) (30) (32) (34) (36) (38) (40) (42) (45) (47) (50) (5

(287) (303) (320) (339) (358) (378) (400) (423) (447) (472) (499) (52

(573) (606) (641) (677) (716) (757) (800) (845) (893) (944) (998) (1,05

(105,324) (117,934) (117,673) (124,380) (131,470) (138,963) (153,841) (155,257) (164,106) (173,460) (183,348) (193,79

- - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - -

- 1,460,750 - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - 4,167,142 - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - -

364,163 386,341 409,869 434,830 461,311 489,405 519,209 550,829 584,375 619,963 657,719 697,77

4,043 4,245 4,458 4,680 4,914 5,160 5,418 5,689 5,974 6,272 6,586 6,91

368,206 1,851,336 414,326 439,510 466,225 494,565 ### 556,518 590,348 626,235 664,305 704,68

262,883 1,733,402 296,654 315,130 334,756 355,601 4,537,929 401,262 426,242 452,775 480,957 510,89

- - - - - - - - - - -

262,883 1,733,402 296,654 315,130 334,756 355,601 4,537,929 401,262 426,242 452,775 480,957 510,89

(52,577) (346,680) (59,331) (63,026) (66,951) (71,120) (907,586) (80,252) (85,248) (90,555) (96,191) (102,17

210,306 1,386,721 237,323 252,104 267,804 284,481 ### 321,009 340,993 362,220 384,766 408,71

34,387 206,127 32,070 30,970 29,908 28,882 335,066 26,934 26,010 25,118 24,255 23,42

2,734,018 4,120,739 ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ##



year of portfolio 1 2 3 4 5 6

FCF Units Total 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Waterbox investment kUSD (261,608) (261,608)

Project 1 kUSD 28,985,352 (87,729) (24,739) (17,429) (18,435) 106,023 112,673

Project 2 kUSD 28,985,352 (87,729) (24,739) (17,429) (18,435) 106,023

Project 3 kUSD 28,985,352 - (87,729) (24,739) (17,429) (18,435)

Project 4 kUSD 28,985,352 - - (87,729) (24,739) (17,429)Project 5 kUSD 28,985,352 - - - (87,729) (24,739)

Project 6 kUSD 28,985,352 - - - - (87,729)

Project 7 kUSD 28,985,352 - - - - -

Project 8 kUSD 28,985,352 - - - - -

Project 9 kUSD 28,985,352 - - - - -

Project 10 kUSD 28,985,352 - - - - -

Total EBIT kUSD ### (349,336) (112,468) (129,897) (148,332) (42,308) 70,365

Tax loss carry forward kUSD (4,363,584) (349,336) (461,804) (591,701) (740,032) (782,341)

Taxable income kUSD ### (349,336) (461,804) (591,701) (740,032) (782,341) (711,976)

Total Tax kUSD (57,918,382) - - - - - -

Free cash flow kUSD ### (349,336) (112,468) (129,897) (148,332) (42,308) 70,365

Discounted FCF kUSD 14,390,464 (317,578) (92,949) (97,593) (101,312) (26,270) 39,719

Cumulative FCF (nokUSD ### (349,336) (461,804) (591,701) (740,032) (782,341) (711,976)

NPV ###

IRR 35.9%

Capital employed ###

Payback 8



7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

119,739 127,247 143,583 1,337,713 162,074 172,178 182,911 194,312 206,423 219,287

112,673 119,739 127,247 143,583 1,337,713 162,074 172,178 182,911 194,312 206,423

106,023 112,673 119,739 127,247 143,583 1,337,713 162,074 172,178 182,911 194,312

(18,435) 106,023 112,673 119,739 127,247 143,583 1,337,713 162,074 172,178 182,911

(17,429) (18,435) 106,023 112,673 119,739 127,247 143,583 1,337,713 162,074 172,178

(24,739) (17,429) (18,435) 106,023 112,673 119,739 127,247 143,583 1,337,713 162,074

(87,729) (24,739) (17,429) (18,435) 106,023 112,673 119,739 127,247 143,583 1,337,713

- (87,729) (24,739) (17,429) (18,435) 106,023 112,673 119,739 127,247 143,583

- - (87,729) (24,739) (17,429) (18,435) 106,023 112,673 119,739 127,247

- - - (87,729) (24,739) (17,429) (18,435) 106,023 112,673 119,739

190,104 317,350 460,933 1,798,646 2,048,449 2,245,367 2,445,706 2,658,454 2,758,853 2,865,467

(711,976) (521,872) (204,522) - - - - - - -

(521,872) (204,522) 256,411 1,798,646 2,048,449 2,245,367 2,445,706 2,658,454 2,758,853 2,865,467

- - (51,282) (359,729) (409,690) (449,073) (489,141) (531,691) (551,771) (573,093)

190,104 317,350 409,651 1,438,917 1,638,759 1,796,293 1,956,565 2,126,763 2,207,082 2,292,373

97,553 148,046 173,732 554,765 574,375 572,354 566,747 560,043 528,358 498,887

(521,872) (204,522) 205,129 1,644,046 3,282,805 5,079,099 7,035,664 9,162,427 ### ###



17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036

232,951 247,465 262,883 1,733,402 296,654 315,130 334,756 355,601 4,537,929 401,262

219,287 232,951 247,465 262,883 1,733,402 296,654 315,130 334,756 355,601 4,537,929

206,423 219,287 232,951 247,465 262,883 1,733,402 296,654 315,130 334,756 355,601

194,312 206,423 219,287 232,951 247,465 262,883 1,733,402 296,654 315,130 334,756

182,911 194,312 206,423 219,287 232,951 247,465 262,883 1,733,402 296,654 315,130

172,178 182,911 194,312 206,423 219,287 232,951 247,465 262,883 1,733,402 296,654

162,074 172,178 182,911 194,312 206,423 219,287 232,951 247,465 262,883 1,733,402

1,337,713 162,074 172,178 182,911 194,312 206,423 219,287 232,951 247,465 262,883

143,583 1,337,713 162,074 172,178 182,911 194,312 206,423 219,287 232,951 247,465

127,247 143,583 1,337,713 162,074 172,178 182,911 194,312 206,423 219,287 232,951

2,978,679 3,098,897 3,218,197 3,613,886 3,748,465 3,891,417 4,043,261 4,204,550 8,536,057 8,718,032

- - - - - - - - - -

2,978,679 3,098,897 3,218,197 3,613,886 3,748,465 3,891,417 4,043,261 4,204,550 8,536,057 8,718,032

(595,736) (619,779) (643,639) (722,777) (749,693) (778,283) (808,652) (840,910) ### ###

2,382,943 2,479,118 2,574,557 2,891,108 2,998,772 3,113,133 3,234,609 3,363,640 6,828,845 6,974,425

471,453 445,891 420,961 429,745 405,226 382,436 361,235 341,496 630,275 585,192

### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###



27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046

426,242 452,775 480,957 510,891 542,684 576,453 612,321 650,416 ### -

401,262 426,242 452,775 480,957 510,891 542,684 576,453 612,321 650,416 ###

4,537,929 401,262 426,242 452,775 480,957 510,891 542,684 576,453 612,321 650,416

355,601 4,537,929 401,262 426,242 452,775 480,957 510,891 542,684 576,453 612,321

334,756 355,601 4,537,929 401,262 426,242 452,775 480,957 510,891 542,684 576,453

315,130 334,756 355,601 4,537,929 401,262 426,242 452,775 480,957 510,891 542,684

296,654 315,130 334,756 355,601 4,537,929 401,262 426,242 452,775 480,957 510,891

1,733,402 296,654 315,130 334,756 355,601 4,537,929 401,262 426,242 452,775 480,957

262,883 1,733,402 296,654 315,130 334,756 355,601 4,537,929 401,262 426,242 452,775

247,465 262,883 1,733,402 296,654 315,130 334,756 355,601 4,537,929 401,262 426,242

8,911,323 9,116,632 9,334,707 8,112,196 8,358,226 8,619,550 8,897,115 9,191,930 ### ###

- - - - - - - - - -

8,911,323 9,116,632 9,334,707 8,112,196 8,358,226 8,619,550 8,897,115 9,191,930 ### ###

### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###

7,129,058 7,293,306 7,467,765 6,489,756 6,686,581 6,895,640 7,117,692 7,353,544 ### ###

543,788 505,742 470,764 371,919 348,362 326,594 306,465 287,836 504,803 448,528

### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###



37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45

2047 2048 2049 2050 2051 2052 2053 2054 2055 0

- - - -

- - - - - - - - - -

### - - - - - - - - -

650,416 ### - - - - - - - -

612,321 650,416 ### - - - - - - -

576,453 612,321 650,416 ### - - - - - -

542,684 576,453 612,321 650,416 ### - - - - -

510,891 542,684 576,453 612,321 650,416 ### - - - -

480,957 510,891 542,684 576,453 612,321 650,416 ### - - -

452,775 480,957 510,891 542,684 576,453 612,321 650,416 ### - -

### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### 0 0

- - - - - - - - - -

### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### - -

### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### - -

### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### - -

397,724 351,884 310,543 273,281 239,717 209,504 182,326 157,899 - -

### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###



0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

- - - - -

- - - - -

- - - - -

- - - - -

- - - - -

- - - - -

- - - - -

- - - - -

- - - - -

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

- - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - -

### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###



0 0

0 0

- -

- -

- -

- -

- -

### ###




SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

In the 'sensitivity analysis' the columns 'conservative' and 'optimistic' are not interactive. Only the column 'base case' is interactive

Base case: Assumes a project in Africa of 50,000 ha freehold land / leasing the waterbox.

Scenario 1 - Biomass at harvest

Conservative Base case Optimistic

Timber production harvest 1 (m3/tree) 0.15 0.30 0.45



Timber production last harvest (m3/tree) 0.50 1.00 1.50

Net Present Value (NPV) kUSD 785,266 1,946,870 2,008,916

Internal Rate of Return (IRR) % 18.9% 26.2% 25.2%

Scenario 2 - Development of timber prices


Indexation of timber prices - annual 0% 1% 2%

Price of softwood, year 25 (USD/m3) 150 192.36 246.09

Price of hardwood, year 35 (USD/m3) 400 566.64 799.96Net Present Value (NPV) kUSD 1,160,364 1,946,870 1,702,843


Scenario 3 - Survival rate of trees


Survival rate trees - after planting 60% 90% 98%

Survival rate trees - after first harvest 60% 95% 98%

Survival rate trees - after second harvest 60% 95% 98%

Net Present Value (NPV) kUSD 693,387 1,946,870 1,155,080


Scenario 4 - Annual bushes harvest

Conservative Base case OptimisticNo bushes plantedProduction in year of first harvest (kg) 1.00 2.00 3.00

Annual production increase 1% 3% 5%

Price of product in year 1 (USD/kg) 0.50 1.00 1.00

Indexation of product prices 1% 3% 3%

Net Present Value (NPV) kUSD 637,373 1,946,870 3,389,863 823,824

Internal Rate of Return (IRR) % 15.8% 26.2% 32.5% 18.8%

Manpower required during project FTE 12,422 12,422 12,422 5,398

Scenario 5 - Development of carbon credit prices


Start price (USD/credit) 2.00 4.00 6.00

Indexation of carbon credit prices - annual 2% 5% 6%

Price in year 25 (USD/credit) 3.28 13.55 25.75

Net Present Value (NPV) kUSD 1,933,230 1,946,870 3,404,776


Scenario 6 - Labour cost


Costprice labour (USD/day) 5 10 40

Net Present Value (NPV) kUSD 2,064,115 1,946,870 1,236,978


Scenario 7 - Changes required to get NPV = 0

scenario a) Base case Changes to

Costprice labour (USD/day) 10 90

orscenario b)

Survival rate trees - after planting 90% 60%

Survival rate trees - after first harvest 95% 60%

Survival rate trees - after second harvest 95% 60%

Production in year of first harvest (kg) 2.00 1.96

Annual production increase 3.0% 2.0%

Price of product in year 1 (USD/kg) 1.00 0.75

Indexation of product prices 3.0% 2.0%

assumes no bushesplanted, no harvest

the values to theleft need to be

amended to thevalues in the

column to the rightto get NPV = 0



2 0 1

1

2 0 1

3

2 0 1

5

2 0 1

7

2 0 1

9

2 0 2

1

2 0 2

3

2 0 2

5

2 0 2

7

2 0 2

9

2 0 3

1

2 0 3

3

2 0 3

5

2 0 3

7

2 0 3

9

2 0 4

1

2 0 4

3

2 0 4

5

5.00

105.00

205.00

305.00

405.00

505.00

605.00

hardwood timber price(USD/m3)

softwood timber price(USD/m3) Year

Price(USD

/m3)



2 0 1 1

2 0 1 3

2 0 1 5

2 0 1 7

2 0 1 9

2 0 2 1

2 0 2 3

2 0 2 5

2 0 2 7

2 0 2 9

2 0 3 1

2 0 3 3

2 0 3 5

2 0 3 7

2 0 3 9

2 0 4 1

2 0 4 3

2 0 4 5

-

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

bushes harvest price(USD/kg) Year

Price(USD/kg)



2 0 1 1

2 0 1 4

2 0 1 7

2 0 2 0

2 0 2 3

2 0 2 6

2 0 2 9

2 0 3 2

2 0 3 5

2 0 3 8

2 0 4 1

2 0 4 4

-

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

Carbon credit prices(USD/credit) Year

Price(USD

/credit)



2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

(5,000,000)

-

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

Row 62 Year

Cumulative

FCF(kUSD)

Break even

in 2019



Legend

2 trees, planted in 1 waterb2667 trees / ha

2 bushes, planted in 1 wate1333 bushes / ha

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34

1

2

34

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

2223

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

5960

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

7879

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

Planting scheme (the grid below represents 1ha, 100m x 100m)



2 0 1 1

2 0 1 3

2 0 1 5

2 0 1 7

2 0 1 9

2 0 2 1

2 0 2 3

2 0 2 5

2 0 2 7

2 0 2 9

2 0 3 1

2 0 3 3

2 0 3 5

2 0 3 7

2 0 3 9

2 0 4 1

2 0 4 3

2 0 4 5

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Employment generated (FTE) over project lifetime

Baseline study Land preparation Planting Overhead andmanagement

Custodial management Waterbox removal Maintenance - year 2-8 Maintenance - year 8onwards

Harvesting of bushes(fruit/nuts)

Harvesting of trees(timber) - first interim

harvest

Harvesting of trees(timber) - second interim

harvest

Harvesting of trees(timber) - third interim

harvestHarvesting of trees(timber) - final harvest

FSC - Admin and control Carbon - Admin,verification and control

Secondary employmentgenerated

Documents

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