COP OUT !Hon Barry Brill OBE JP LLM MComLaw OPM

COP21 will out-flunk cop15

• Paris COP21 Goal:“A universal, legally binding and differentiated agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions so as to limit the global temperature rise to 2°C above current levels.

• Some Descriptions of Copenhagen COP15:“Political Disaster” (Heerdegard)“Chinese Hypocrisy” (Sarkozy)“Abject Failure” (Friends of the Earth) “A Crime Scene” (Greenpeace)

TWO PREDICTIONS1. The outcome of COP21 will be an embarrassing FAILURE

BUT…

2. The objective of COP21 will be a resounding SUCCESS

Track record20 COPs: Many Failures - No Successes

1. Rio 1992: UNFCC Goal - OECD emissions to reduce to 1990 levels by 2000 [they increased by 20%]

2. Kyoto 1997: Legally enforceable reduction of OECD emissions- Highly euro-centric - NZ only other complier- All except Europe refused a second commitment- During 1990-2012, global emissions rose by 60%

3. Bali 2007: Road Map - voluntary emission targets to be adopted by developing countries. [BASIC countries have simply refused].

4. Copenhagen 2009: legally binding treaty to reduce emissions by 25% by 2020 [fiasco]

5. Cancun 2010: a $100 billion pa “Green Climate Fund” agreed [never funded]

THE negotiating climate

Non-climate arguments disappeared since 2009:

- Failure of “Peak Oil”- Failure of “Green Growth”- Failure of Carbon Markets- Lapse in Popularity/Policy- Global Financial Crisis

AND

“The Hiatus”:

- IPCC Influence- Cost-Benefit Models- Potential Collapse of Alarm

countries...that matter

Rank CountryEmissions (per million tonnes)

PercentagePercentage Change

1992-2009

1 China 8,320 26.2 240

2 United States 5,610 17.7 10

3 EU 4,370 13.8 1

4 India 1,696 5.3 157

5 Russia 1,634 5.1 -19

6 Japan 1,164 3.7 8

71.8

7 South Korea 579 1.8 97

8 Iran 560 1.8 139

9 Canada 549 1.7 13

10 Saudi Arabia 478 1.5 103

11 South Africa 465 1.5 45

12 Brazil 454 1.4 91

13 Mexico 445 1.4 42

14 Australia 405 1.3 47

15 Indonesia 389 1.2 116

TOTAL 27,118 85.3

All other countries 4,662 14.7

Developed Country Percentage

37.2

LeadershipLeaders:- B.A.S.I.C.: Growth/Poverty Eradication (“Rio Principles)- USA: Rhetoric, No Pain- EU: Divided- Fuel Exporters: Russia, Iran, Saudi, Indonesia- Canada/Australia; Japan

Remainder:- Group of 77: Money- Small Island States: Justice (Money)

Projected Change...in global mean surface air temperatures table spm 2

(AR5, WG1):

Notes:1. Only one RCP can be considered2. Which end of range is probable?3. With ECS < 2.0C, no prospect of warming >2.0C

RCP 2046-20652081-2100

(CMIP5 models)

2.6 0.4 to 1.6 0.3 to 1.7

4.5 0.9 to 2.0 1.1 to 2.6

6.0 0.8 to 1.8 1.4 to 3.1

PREDICTING THE PathwayWhy Ignore RCP8.5?

1. Pathways include outliers2. Requires six-fold increase in trajectory3. Methane from permafrost - “extremely unlikely”4. Ridley: “The one thing we can say about RCP8.5 is that it is very implausible.”

Why Choose RCP2.6 as BAU?

1. Above current trajectory2. RF forecasts are habitually over-stated3. Shale gas: US leading decline?4. Biosphere growth?5. Efficiency. Oil price quadrupled 2004-2008. - “Carbon Price” (MT of CO2e) increased from $7.36 (1999) to $43.30 today- Barrel = 433kg. Equivalent to carbon tax of $36 - higher than anywhere- Coal went $30 to 150 to 85. Tax higher than Stern.6. Assumption RF is 100% anthropogenic

Net global BENEFIt of climate change

1.) Net economic impact of <2.2°C warming is positive, 2.) Marginal benefit declines after 1°C of additional warming. 3.) Tol’s graph averages all of the peer-reviewed studies published to date

The (negative) social cost of carbon...“The IPPC produced two reports last year. One said that the cost of climate change is likely to be less than 2% of GDP by the end of this century. The other said that the cost of decarbonizing the world economy with renewable energy is likely to be 4% of GDP. Why do something that you know will do more harm than good?”- Matt Ridley, Financial Post, June 19 2014

Thank You