Cooperative Work for Spatial Decision Making

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03-Sep-2015

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Cooperative Work for Spatial Decision Making: An Emergencies Management Case

Cooperative Work for Spatial Decision Making: An Emergencies Management CaseJonathan Frez, Nelson Baloian, Jose A. Pino, Gustavo Zurita

ContextFind a suitable area to do somethingill-structured problems :goals are not clear the various decision makers -> different goals according to their own knowledgeLimited data -> incomplete.Emergency Management response processes ProblemEvacuation from coastal areas decisions after a strong earthquake.Iquique

Source: Earth science: Warning signs of the Iquique earthquake

Data is missingExactly how many people are now in in each portion of the territory?Do they have now operating means of transportation?

Previous work : a graphical display of possible values at each location. -> one expert.

Scenario BuildingDempster-Shafer theory proposes to use sets of hypotheses associated to a mass. The mass can be interpreted as support.Belief is the probability that an hypotheses is supported by the existing evidence.Plausibility is the probability an hypotheses is compatible with the evidence.We use the probability word just to simplify the explanationScenario Building

Previously Work Software:

Spatial FussinessRepetitionsGeneration LanguageGeneration Engine

Evacuation areas

Evacuation alternatives

how many people are now in in each portion of the territory?during daytime:UniversitiesRestaurantsshopping centerspopular beachduring nighttimeHomePubsDisco!

Not a number of people!, a Belief of where people can be.Combination Methods

Combination Methods: OperatorsSum useful when three independent but related scenarios must be merged.Subtract be useful to evaluate the differences between one scenario and other ones.Average This operator can be used in order to find places where to deploy scarce resources.

Combination Methods: OperatorsOWA (Ordered Weighted Average)ordered ascendingly or descendinglyOWA-DESC emphasize the largest belief values of each scenario, avoiding that a certain important fact known by one of the experts could be ignored because of simple averaging.OWA-ASC combination emphasizes the belief when the values are constantly high in all scenarios.

Some simulations:

People at Beach

Commercial Areas

Near to high buildings

People in unsafe areas.DiscussionThe approach may be used to collaboratively analyze spatial information using decision making tools. Could be used in several disaster scenarios.Main drawbacks : Strongly related to Dempster-Shafer Theory.Representation of belief values, not magnitude values. After applying an operator between two or more suitability maps, the relation between the belief values and the original hypotheses set is not clearUseful as a visualization and decision making tool