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Convergence and its Impact on Users, Providers, and Users as Providers of Interactive Multimedia Services
Dr. Eric W. BurgerDeputy CTO, BEA Systems, Inc.Member of the Board, SIP ForumVP, IMS Forum15 January 2007
ITU Future of Voice 2007
Copyright © 2007, BEA Systems, Inc. | 2ITU Future of Voice 2007
Agenda
Points from other work
Fundamental technical enablers
Impact on traditional voice and video services
Regulatory implications
Copyright © 2007, BEA Systems, Inc. | 3ITU Future of Voice 2007
Points From Other Work (Today and Tomorrow)
Natural monopoly disappearing, yet ever-present Excellent economic analysis of last mile and core network sunk cost
issues
Difference between telco, cableco, and mobileco?Access Network ONLY!
Many examples of fall in price of communications due to IP enabling new businesses and dramatic economic growth
It is hard to educate consumers about nature of VoIP,Especially if framed as “Cheap Voice”
Voice IP traffic indistinguishable from other IP traffic Barring port blocking or deep packet inspection Both defeatable (cf. Skype), but no defense against deliberate stream
damage
Copyright © 2007, BEA Systems, Inc. | 4ITU Future of Voice 2007
First-Generation VoIP
Is convergence simply IP interfaces on TDM equipment? Approach through 1990’s Embodied by H.323, H.248 Many examples of equipment and architectures: e.g., SoftSwitch
Makes sense, coming from telco environment
Q.1248.2
PRI
Q.931 MG MGCH.248 H.248
Parlay
FS
MS
H.248
Q.1248.3
SSP
SCP
IP
Copyright © 2007, BEA Systems, Inc. | 5ITU Future of Voice 2007
Problems With First Generation VoIP
Same applications: simple voice calling More equipment More vendors Initially higher cost, but promises of “data center economics”
Worse yet, proprietary systems improved in performance 10% every 18 months, not promised 100% Identical to performance improvements of traditional TDM equipment
“Data center economics” is not about IP interfaces or Intel Cost to develop new hardware (€250,000 - €2,000,000/board) Volume to amortize hardware development cost Competitive pressure to use latest silicon
Copyright © 2007, BEA Systems, Inc. | 6ITU Future of Voice 2007
Next Generation VoIP: Is SIP the Only Difference?
Key point is not that we trade API’s for SIP everywhere
SIP everywhere means session establishment and processing is transparent to client and server
MG
MGC
H.248
SIP
AS
MRB
P-CSCF I-CSCF S-CSCFSCIM
I-CSCF
SIP SIP SIP SIP
SIP
SIP
SIP
MG
MGCH.248
SIP
SIP Phone
AS
MRF
RTP
RTP RTP
Full 3GPP IMS Architecture
Leverage SIPRouting Cloud
SIP
SIP
SIP
MRF
SIP Phone
Get benefits today of Applications and Services infrastructure; deploy IMS when ready
Copyright © 2007, BEA Systems, Inc. | 7ITU Future of Voice 2007
Physics of Media ProcessingConferencing Example
Many have welcomed or bemoaned the migration of intelligence to the edge
Some things are best done “in network”
ProviderNetwork
Copyright © 2007, BEA Systems, Inc. | 8ITU Future of Voice 2007
Physics of Media Processing:All Intelligence at Edge
Many have welcomed or bemoaned the migration of intelligence to the edge
Some things are best done “in network”
SL
SL
SL
SL
ProviderNetwork
Each node receives at least three times more traffic
Complex service logic coordination and topology
All traffic going through thin access pipe to provider network
Copyright © 2007, BEA Systems, Inc. | 9ITU Future of Voice 2007
Physics of Media Processing:All Processing Centralized at ASP
Many have welcomed or bemoaned the migration of intelligence to the edge
Some things are best done “in network” SL
Media
Processor
ProviderNetwork
Each node receives single stream
Straightforward service logic and media processing
Lots of bandwidth required at ASP
ASP
Copyright © 2007, BEA Systems, Inc. | 10ITU Future of Voice 2007
ASP
Physics of Media Processing:All Intelligence at ASP, Media in Network
Many have welcomed or bemoaned the migration of intelligence to the edge
Some things are best done “in network”
ServiceLogic
ProviderNetwork
Each node receives single stream
Straightforward service logic and media processing
Only signaling (low bandwidth) needed at ASP
Customer data stays at ASP; heavy mediaprocessing done by network
MRF
Copyright © 2007, BEA Systems, Inc. | 11ITU Future of Voice 2007
Is Next Generation VoIP Really Different than First Generation VoIP?
First Generation
Use IP versions of SS7 H.248 JAIN Parlay Parlay-X
Developer pool Java (or Web Services) developers
who are experts in SS7, CS-2 (Apologies to Zygmunt)
Impact unquestionably huge for captive / TEM development
Second Generation
Use real-time multimedia extensions of Web SIP VoiceXML CCXML MSCML
Developer pool Minimal training over HTTP (SIP) Minimal training over HTML (XML)
Impact huge for enterprise, user, and new entrant development
Key is how applications developed and deployed
Copyright © 2007, BEA Systems, Inc. | 12ITU Future of Voice 2007
Why is This Distinction Important?
Dramatically lowers barrier of entry for users to create applications and content
Protocols built from ground-up to survive hostile environments (Internet) enable disaggregation of functions, such as MRF
Creates new opportunities for service providers
Creates environment for wealth generation
Flattens marketplace 1990: “In America, you open your garage door, and you see a market of
250 000 000 people; in Sweden, you open your garage door, and you see 2 meters of snow.”
2007: “You open your garage door anywhere in the world, put up a server, and see a market of a few hundred million people.”
Copyright © 2007, BEA Systems, Inc. | 13ITU Future of Voice 2007
Distinction Lost: The Voice Call
Innovative applications may use person-to-person, real-time, audio communication Teamspeak for World of Warcraft Vivox for Second Life
Is this a phone call, or part of the game? Truly indistinguishable: recalling other presentations today and
tomorrow Defeating VoIP defeats new, wealth-creating applications (often worth
much more than displaced voice revenues)
Copyright © 2007, BEA Systems, Inc. | 14ITU Future of Voice 2007
Distinction Lost: The Video Value Chain
Is BitTorrent a cable provider? Provide access to movies But also provide access to many other kinds of multimedia
Is YouTube a cable provider? Provide access to movies Most are not studio productions, but user productions
Anyone who has tried to create municipal networks understands negotiating for content is hard But when content comes from users, with implicit right-to-view, not an
issue Still role for content aggregators
Copyright © 2007, BEA Systems, Inc. | 15ITU Future of Voice 2007
Issues for Regulators
Universal services now mean IP access, not an analog voice line or basic cable video service
Revenue from voice calling falling precipitously, but IP end-user access is nowhere near free
Technically difficult if not impossible to determine what is a voice call (for tariff and tax purposes) Expect to give up that source of revenue Look for alternatives for universal IP access Alternative: Lose national wealth potential, innovation, and competitive
advantage
Thank You
Dr. Eric W. Burger15 January 2007
Questions