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Convective indexes calculated from HIRLAM output
St.PetersburgThe Russian State Hydrometeorological
UniversityFaculty of Meteorology
Meteorological Forecasting DepartmentKanukhina Anna
Aims:
• to estimate possible use of convective indexes calculated on HIRLAM outputs for forecasting of place, beginning time and type of mesoscale convective phenomena
Initial data are HIRLAM analysis and forecast files : • - air temperature at surface and heights at various
periods;• - dew point temperature at surface and heights at
various periods; • - wind parameters at surface and heights at various
periods;• - surface pressure tendencies;• - specific humidity at surface and heights at
various periods;
3 types of indexes:
• diagnostic - atmospheric preparedness for convection development (Г, С, MOCON);
• index having triggering function ( );
• indexes estimating possible type of arising phenomena (CAPE,HEI);
atmosphere statical stability index Г
Ге =
Г =
Ze
eLeU
еГ
moisture convergence
• MOCON=
r –specific humidity, kg/kg;
V – wind speed at 10 m, m/s;
rVVrrV HHHh
generalized index indicating possibility of convective disturbance formation С
Г =
eC 22
еГ
г
г
convective instability indicator (Falkovich’s index) χ
= з
зкнс
EHI energy helicity index
EHI =CAPE*H
Н – relative wind helicity;
CAPE convective available potential energy:
CAP = dzgZh
e
ee
0
Studied cases divided into 3 groups
• 1 group: days with thunderstorms and showers; indexes indicate high possibility of these weather phenomena;
• 2 group: days without any convective phenomena but indexes shows existing possibility of phenomena arising( atmospheric instability);
• 3 group: days associated with thunderstorms and showers; atmosphere is stable according to indexes consideration;
Used data
• HIRLAM forecast;
• HIRLAM analysis;
• sounding data;
• surface observations (synoptic charts OSCAR, registered thunderstorm charts from FMI site http://www.ava.fmi.fi/~tjt/salark.html).
Studied cases
29.06.200019.06.200121-23.11.200103-06.07.200216-20.07.2003
23.11.2001 12UTC
Indexes profiles for
Kardla, Estonia
MOCON, 1/s for Kardla (Estonia) on 23.11.2001 12 UTC
analyse fc=12 fc=24
MOCON and χ scattering graph for 6 h forecast (on base of analisys on 23.11.2001 06:00 UTC and forecast
23.11.2001 00:00 UTC)
С and Γ scattering graph for 6 h forecast (on base of analisys on 23.11.2001 06:00 UTC and forecast
23.11.2001 00:00 UTC)
CAPE and HEI scattering graph for 6 h forecast (on base of analisys on 23.11.2001 06:00 UTC and forecast
23.11.2001 00:00 UTC)
29.06.2000 12UTC
MOCON, CAPE analysis on 29.06.2000 12 UTC
• Thunderstorms chat on 29.06.2000
• (http://www.ava.fmi.fi/~tjt/salark.html)
СAPE and MOCON scattering graph for 24 h forecast (on base of analisys on 29.06.2000 12:00 UTC and forecast
28.06.2000 12:00 )
С and Γ scattering graph for 24 h forecast (on base of analisys on 29.06.2000 12:00 UTC and forecast
28.06.2000 12:00 )
Indexes’ correlation coefficients (forecast and analysis)
• Ряд 1 –С
• Ряд 2 – Γ
• Ряд 3 – χ
• Ряд 4 – СAPE
• Ряд 5 – MOCON
• Ряд 6 – HEI
-0,2
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
1 2 3 4 5
Number of 3h increament
Co
rre
lati
on
co
eff
icie
nt
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
1,4
Ряд2
Ряд1
Ряд6
Ряд3
Ряд4
Ряд5
Conclusions
- χ values defined by forecasts have essential distinctions with calculations from analysis and χ can not be used for atmospheric state estimation when forecasting at period more than 6h.
- The same could be said for HEI. - CAPE and MOCON may be used forecasting at
period no more than 12h. - С and Γ forecasts are close to real situation even at
24h forecast period particularly for C values.