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Contribución UIB-DFS a HyMeXEventos extremos en el ciclo hidrológico
Mediterráneo: física y predecibilidad
V. Homar R. Romero A. AmengualM. Vich L. Garcies M. Tous
C. Ramis S. Alonso
HyMeX.es
Líneas principales UIB• WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floods• WG4: Intense sea-atmosphere interactions
1. to improve our understanding of the water cycle, with emphases on the predictability and evolution of intense events
2. to evaluate the societal and economical vulnerability to extreme events and the adaptation capacity
Objetivos HyMeX
HyMeX.es
WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floodsTopic 3.1a- Heavy precipitation systems climatology
HyMeX.es
WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floodsTopic 3.1b- Factors leading to heavy precipitation systems
Análisis numérico de factores (separación de factores):•Contorno (orografia, superficie marina, tipo suelo)•Procesos Físicos (evaporación, liberación calor latente, calor sensible)•Estructuras dinámicas (vaguadas, centros ciclónicos, estructuras PV)
HyMeX.es
15 UTC
9 UTC
Reference MM5 With nudging Radar reflectivities
5
WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floodsTopic 3.1b- Factors leading to heavy precipitation systems
HyMeX.es
WRF : Front structure at 12 UTC
Өe à 850 hPa Өe vertical section A-B
A katafront 6
WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floodsTopic 3.1b- Factors leading to heavy precipitation systems
HyMeX.es
WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floods
Topic 3.1f-Modeling and predictability issues
• Generación de SPC (ensembles)• Multifísica• Perturbación CI basada en PV• Perturbación CI basada en BredVectors• Perturbación CI basada en Adjunto
• Mejora de CI a través de targeting a corto y medio plazo
HyMeX.es
We easily compute probabilities of future outcomes:
Time
Initial fields
Prediction 18 ºC(20%)
16 ºC(50%)
14 ºC(30%)
Ensemble prediction systems
WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floodsTopic 3.1f-Modeling and predictability issues
HyMeX.es
New generation method for extreme events:“Targeted” bred vectors
ln(ρ) = -1.3ω2 = 1.8
ln(ρ) = -3.5ω2 = 0.1
ln(ρ) = -1ω2 = 0.5
ln(ρ) = -.5ω2 = 1.5
ln(ρ) = 0ω2 = 5
WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floodsTopic 3.1f-Modeling and predictability issues
HyMeX.es
WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floodsTopic 3.1f-Modeling and predictability issues
HyMeX.es
WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floodsTopic 3.1f-Modeling and predictability issues
HyMeX.es
THE SCENE THE CRIME
THE SUSPECTS US, THE RESEARCHERS
WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floodsTopic 3.1f-Modeling and predictability issues
HyMeX.es
Forecasting process
WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floodsTopic 3.1f-Modeling and predictability issues
HyMeX.es
ADJOINT ENSEMBLE-1 ENSEMBLE-2 HUMAN NON-SENS
A cylindrical gaussian perturbation is applied at t-48h to the IC with an amplitude proportional to their zonal standard deviation and centered on the maximum of the mean sensitivity field. Geopotential height at 500hPa:
Sensitivity locations:
ADJOINT ENSEMBLE-1 ENSEMBLE-2 HUMAN NON-SENS
Sensitivities of Mediterranean Intense Cyclones: Analysis and Verification
WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floodsTopic 3.1f-Modeling and predictability issues
HyMeX.es
Mean normalized RMSD of MSLP over the 25 verification cyclone cases:
Sensitivities of Mediterranean Intense Cyclones: Analysis and Verification
WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floodsTopic 3.1f-Modeling and predictability issues
HyMeX.es
WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floodsTopic 3.1f-Modeling and predictability issues
http://mm5forecasts.uib.es
HyMeX.es
WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floods
Topic 3.2d-Modeling and predictability issues
HyMeX.es
WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floods
Topic 3.2d-Modeling and predictability issues
HyMeX.es
• To improve our understanding from global climate model outputs to regional and local spatial scales:
GCMs
Dynamical downscaling
RCMs
- Regional scales: Dynamical downscaling. Regional Climate Models (RCMs)
Statistical downscaling
- Local scales: Statistical downscaling and model calibration from RCMs
WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floodsTopic 3.3-Impact of climate change on heavy precipitation and
flash-floods
HyMeX.es
WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floodsTopic 3.3-Impact of climate change on heavy precipitation
and flash-floods
i
io ip
pis fis
HyMeX.es
SPdP: change in annual intensity trends of extreme events (1979-2008/2021-2050)
WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floodsTopic 3.3-Impact of climate change on heavy precipitation and flash-floods
HyMeX.es
Líneas principales UIB• WG3: Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floods• WG4: Intense sea-atmosphere interactions
1. to improve our understanding of the water cycle, with emphases on the predictability and evolution of intense events
2. to evaluate the societal and economical vulnerability to extreme events and the adaptation capacity
Objetivos HyMeX
HyMeX.es
WG4: Intense sea-atmosphere interactionsTopic 4.1a-Local severe winds
10 Desembre 1996
29 Setembre 1983
16 Gener 1995
9 Octubre 1996
2shear
3
max
32/35 V1.01
70
V
50
H10GENPDF
HyMeX.es
WG4: Intense sea-atmosphere interactionsTopic 4.1a-Local severe winds
HyMeX.es
€
q =r η ⋅
r ∇θ
ρ
€
∇2Φ =∇⋅ ( f∇Ψ) +2
a4 cosθJλθ [∂λ Ψ,∂θ Ψ]
€
q =gκπ
p( f +∇2Ψ)∂π
2Φ −∂λπ
2 Ψ∂λπ2 Φ
a2 cos2 θ−
∂θπ2 Ψ∂θπ
2 Φ
a2
⎡
⎣ ⎢
⎤
⎦ ⎥
+ B.C.+ Hydrostatic Eq.
ÊPV inversion (Hoskins et al., 1985)
WG4: Intense sea-atmosphere interactionsTopic 4.1b-Mediterranean cyclogenesis
HyMeX.es
APÉNDICES
HyMeX.es
http://www.hymex.org
HyMeX.es
HyMeX.es
Acción complementaria Plan NacionalRed HyMeX.es
Financiar:Viajes a Workshops, Reuniones HyMeX.esPortal comunicación online, Secretaría?
Grupos Interesados?