An Introduction

History Theory Application

1992: The UNFCCC's call for an equitable distribution of carbon emission rights among individual states or groups of states, in proportion to their population, with planned progress towards that objective by an agreed date

Between 1992 and 1995, at the request of the IPCC, the Global Commons Institute (GCI) discovered and presented an analysis on the growing trend of 'Expansion and Divergence‘

Contraction and Convergence was developed by the GCI to counteract the negative effects of the trend of expansion and divergence.

Mostly popular for developing countries, but not entirely

Cap and Share idea...

Contraction and Convergence: ◦ it defines emission quotas on the basis of a

convergence in per capita emissions, ◦ under a contracting global greenhouse gas

emission profile ◦ all countries participate with emission

endowments converging to equal per capita levels over time.

combines the egalitarian and acquired rights approaches, leaving aside the responsibility and capability principles

Boundary conditions:◦ Define the total amount of carbon in the

atmosphere acceptable ◦ Annual fall of global emissions calculated - ◦ Pathway until „safe” level of atmospehric

concentration is reached

Convergence:◦ How the entitlements to emit carbon are

distributed between the countries of the world:

◦ When convergence of all per capita emissions reached the same level, they start to contract – decrease

Trading of emission endowments is possible Cut off date in population numbers „Hot air” is part of the system

Equal per capita emissons globally

Current emissions

Stringency of the climate target:◦ Pre-agreed global concentration determined to be

safe◦ Fall rate of emissions

Convergence date Cut off date of population numbers

1. Recognise the prevention of dangerous climate change as an essential global security interest

2. Agree danger indicators3. Decide CO2 concentration target and timetable4. Decide CO2 concentration target and timetable5. Set annual global CO2 emissions budgets according to a

"contraction" formula6. Calculate relative national shares of the global budget

according to a "convergence" formula7. Allocate national CO2 emissions quotas8. Establish criteria and mechanisms for quota management9. Set up a system for emissions trading10. Require International Airline and Shipping companies to

purchase CO2 emission quotas11. Devise potential sanctions, penalties, and compensation!!!

GCI www.gci.org.uk

5Gtc

10Gtc

1900 2000 2100

Rest of WorldIndiaChina

Annex 1 (non-OECD)OECD minus USAUSA

1800 2200

0

2

4

6

Gross Emissions

Per Capita Emissions

GCI www.gci.org.uk

0

2

4

6

5Gtc

10Gtc

1900 2000 21001800 2200

Rest of WorldIndiaChina

Annex 1 (non-OECD)OECD minus USAUSA

Gross Emissions

Per Capita Emissions

GCI www.gci.org.uk

Gtc

10Gtc

1800 1900 2000 2100 2200

CO2 Non Annex OneCO2 Annex OneCO2 Annex OneBAU

i.e. Convergence by 2100

GCI www.gci.org.uk

Gtc

10Gtc

1800 1900 2000 2100 2200

CO2 Non Annex OneCO2 Non Annex OneCO2 Annex OneBAU

i.e. Convergence by 2020

GCI www.gci.org.uk

Gtc

10Gtc

1800 1900 2000 2100 2200

CO2 Non Annex OneCO2 Negotiated AreaCO2 Annex OneBAU

i.e. Convergence by 202030Gtc

20Gtc

GCI www.gci.org.uk

Gtc

10Gtc

1800 1900 2000 2100 2200

CO2 Non Annex OneCO2 Traded AreaCO2 Annex OneBAU

30Gtc

20Gtc

Net Zero CO2 RenewablesEfficiency

Which contraction budget? ◦ The budget should be 'risk-averse‘

Agree on danger indicators◦ Factrong in long term stabilisation◦ Necessity: 350/450 ppmv – „political

reality”: 550 ppmv Which convergence date?

◦ Sooner the better, but „political reality”