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LCC OBSERVATIONS 1
1st QUARTER 2016LCC Observations
CONTRACT AVAILABILITY FOR LARGE RENEWABLE ENERGY
TARGET DEVELOPMENTS
Summary
bull This paper draws on public information and statements by stakeholders to estimate the volume of renewable energy hedge contracts currently available or promised
bull LCCrsquos analysis shows that of the estimated 173 TWh of new renewable energy required to deliver on the Large Renewable Energy Target (ldquoLRETrdquo) some 111 TWh will be supported by current and promised contracts (both bundled electricity amp Large Generation Certificates (ldquoLGCrdquo) contracts and standalone LGC contracts) in the NEM leaving a 2020+ contract gap of around 63 TWh
bull Contracts that enable finance reduce equity commitment and lower risk amp expected return reduce the cost of LGC production
bull Wind amp Solar farms are very reliable (availability levels gt98) and produce predictable amounts of energy on seasonal time scales However the short term intermittent nature of the power produced makes hedging a difficult venture with the current design of the National Electricity Market and the derivative products available Where penetration of wind amp solar in region is high then the negative correlation of half hourly energy production and pool prices makes hedging more challenging The most effective hedge is a bundled electricity amp LGC PPA
Wind amp Solar Sector Update
12 April 2016
LCC OBSERVATIONS 2
2020+ Contract Gap
LGC - 2015 Actual versus 2020+ Forecast
2015 (act) 2020+ (est)
WampS Operating or under construction in 2015 11522593 12500000
Hydro 707626 1480000
WCM Gas 803571 -
Other 2178780 2180000
Less VoluntaryGreen Power Scheme Surrender (est) 1200000 500000
Available for Compliance 14012570 15660000
LRET 18850000 33000000
Required New BuildNil (overhang of Small
Scale Generated RECrsquos)17340000
Less New Build underwritten by PPAs to support 2020 R amp SC
Compliance5480000
Less New Build underwritten by Current PPALGC Tenders 1600000
Less AGLs PARF (est) 2500000
Less Stockyard Hill Wind Farm (est) 1400000
NEW CONTRACTS REQUIRED 6360000
Data on LGCrsquos generated in calendar 2015 is available from the REC Registry (see data references on page 4)
bull Wind amp Solar combined was the major source of 2015 LGCrsquos and will be the new build technology of choice
bull Hydro has been a volatile source of certificates with 2015 being a particularly low year
bull Waste Coal Mine Gas certificates will not be eligible to create LGCrsquos after 2020
bull The voluntary surrender of certificates isnrsquot yet observable but recent history provides an estimate
bull The quantity of LGCrsquos available for compliance is some 74 of the 2015 target BUT the overhang of deemed certificates
means there is currently no trigger for new build
bull Looking forward to 2020 and beyond the requirement for new build is estimated to be 1734 mil per annum or around
$104b in total subsidy assuming an LGC price of $60 each
There are tenderrsquos for ~17ma LGCrsquos currently in market and contracts associated with AGLrsquos PARF and OELrsquos Stockyard Hill
WF will add ~39ma LGCrsquosa by 2020+
LCC estimates that the large (bankable) retailers need to enter into contracts for an additional ~55m LGCrsquosa by 2020 to
cover Retail amp Small Commercial compliance requirements as promised
This leaves the LRET target short by ~63m LGCrsquosa unless Wind and Solar farms are built relying on market revenues or other
contract solutions appear (~63m LGCrsquosa are created by ~2120 MW Wind farms or ~2880 MW Solar farms)
Comments
LCC OBSERVATIONS 3
Visible Contract Buy-side
Buyer Volume Status
Alinta Energy Unknown Open
City of Melbourne 110 GWha Flagged
Ergon Energy 150 MW Closed
QLD Solar 60 60 MW Closed
SA Govt Low Carbon
Electricitylt481 GWha Open
Sydney NW Metro 137 GWha Closed
Synergy 500k LGCrsquosa Open
VIC RE Tender lt320k LGCrsquosa Closed
Totals equiv 16m LGCrsquosa
Major
Retailer 2
Estimated
2015 R amp SC
consumption
2015
Compliance
covered by
contracted
Wind amp Solar
Extra R amp SC
LGC
compliance
requirement
in 2020
Announced
additional sources of
LGC generation
between 2016 amp
2020+
Extra Wind amp
Solar LGCrsquos
needed by 2020
AGL Energy 24 TWh 93 21m 1000 MW PARF None
Energy
Australia18 TWh 72 15m
Taralga amp Waterloo 2
WFrsquos174m
Origin
Energy31 TWh 71 26m
Bald Hill amp Stockyard
Hill WFrsquos amp Moree SF 333m
Ergon
Energy9 TWh
86 (including
Bagasse)730k
150 MW Wind Solar
PPA tender410k
Totals 88 TWh 742m 548m
Contracts underwritten by Residential amp Small Commercial Consumptions
Announced Contract Tenders
A number of tenders for supply LGCrsquos or
bundled electricity and LGCrsquos (Power
Purchase Agreements or (ldquoPPArsquosrdquo)) have
been issued that may support the LRET
Note projects that have been successful in
the various ACT Govt Feed in Tariff
(ldquoFiTrdquo) auctions are additional to the LRET
The QLD Solar 60 tender is only
supporting projects that are successful in
securing ARENA grant monies under the
large scale solar PV competitive round
The SA Govt Low Carbon Electricity
supply tender is open to technologies with
a carbon intensity of lt04tMWh which is
broader than eligible technologies under
the LRET
2 See next page for assumptions and data sources
LCC OBSERVATIONS 4
Calculation of Residential amp Small
Commercial Consumption
a) httpwwwescvicgovaugetattachment983c8101-90be-4173-b57e-73ec365f2648Energy-Retailers-
Comparative-Performance-Report-Cupdf
b) httpwwwescvicgovaugetattachment0fdace1d-e672-46bc-8b9b-b432340b2d34Energy-retailers-
comparative-performance-report-Cupdf
c) httpforecastingaemocomau
d) httpwwwaergovauindustry-informationindustry-
statisticsf[0]=field_accc_aer_stats_category3A1468
e) httpwwwresourcesandenergynswgovau__dataassetspdf_file0005499658ESS-Review-Issues-
Paperpdf
f) wwwrec-registrygovau
NEM Small Customer Numbers from AEMO amp ESC of VIC for Major Retailers
Split of Residential amp Small Commercial Customer Numbers from ESC of VIC
Average Daily Consumption by Residential Customers for each state from AEMO (latest 201011 data)
Average Daily Consumption by Small Commercial Customers ndash 150kWh (LCC analysis)
2020 Consumption based on AEMO Operational Consumption forecast
Wind amp Solar Project Annual Energy Production from REC Registry
Wind amp Solar Project Contract Position from LCC analysis
2020 Renewable Power Percentage based on AEMO Operational Consumption forecast
Assumptions
Data Sources
LCC OBSERVATIONSFLYER 5
IMPORTANT INFORMATION This Flyer (lsquoFlyerrsquo) has been drafted by Lincoln Crowne amp Company Pty Limited andor its affiliates (together ldquoLCCrdquo) for the exclusive
use of the party to whom LCC delivers this Flyer (the ldquoRecipientrdquo) using information provided from a variety of sources including publicly available information and
potentially information from the Recipient You acknowledge and agree LCC has not independently verified the information contained in this Flyer nor does LCC make
any Flyer or warranty either express or implied as to the accuracy completeness or reliability of the information contained in this Flyer This Flyer should not be
regarded by the Recipient as a substitute for the exercise of its own judgment and the Recipient is expected to rely on its own due diligence including separate legal
tax and accounting if it wishes to proceed further in relation to any transaction concept outlined in this Flyer
The indicative valuations forecasts estimates opinions and projections contained in this Flyer involve elements of subjective judgment and analysis They are based
on facts and data that are often subject to rapid change Any opinions expressed in this material are subject to change without notice This Flyer may contain forward-
looking statements included those reported by various Companies LCC undertakes no obligation to update these forward-looking statements for events or
circumstances that occur subsequent to such dates or to update or keep current any of the information contained in this Flyer Any estimates or projections as to events
that occur in the future (including projections of revenue expense net income and stock performance) are based upon the best judgment of LCC from the information
provided by the Recipient and other publicly available as of the date of this Flyer Any statements estimates or projections as to LCCrsquos fees or other pricing are accurate
only as at the date of this Flyer There is no guarantee that any of these estimates or projections will be achieved Actual results will vary from the projections and such
variations may be material
Nothing contained in this Flyer is or shall be relied upon as a promise or Flyer as to the past or the future LCC its affiliates directors employees andor agents
expressly disclaim any and all liability relating or resulting from inaccurate or incomplete information and the use or reliance of all or any part of this Flyer or any of the
information contained within this Flyer
By accepting this Flyer the Recipient acknowledges and agrees that LCC will at all times act as an independent contractor on an armrsquos-length basis and will not act in
any other capacity including in a fiduciary capacity with respect to the Recipient LCC may provide services to any member of the same group as the Recipient or any
other entity or person (a ldquoThird Partyrdquo) engage in any transaction (on its own account or otherwise) with respect to the Recipient or a Third Party or act in relation to any
matter for itself or any Third Party notwithstanding that such services transactions or actions may be adverse to the Recipient or any member of its group and LCC
may retain for its own benefit any related remuneration or profit
This Flyer has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not to be constructed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial
instruments The Recipient should not construe the contents of this Flyer as legal tax accounting or investment advice or a recommendation The Recipient should
consult its own counsel tax and financial advisors as to legal and related matters concerning any transaction described in this Flyer This Flyer does not purport to be
all-inclusive or to contain all of the information that the Recipient may require No investment divestment or other financial decisions or actions should be based solely
on the information in this Flyer
This Flyer has been prepared on a confidential basis solely for the use and benefit of the Recipient Distribution of this Flyer to any person other than the Recipient and
those persons retained to advice the Recipient who agree to maintain the confidentiality of this material and be bound by the limitations outlined herein is not
authorized by LCC LCC specifically prohibits the redistribution or reproduction of this material in whole or in part without the written permission of LCC and LCC
accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect
Lincoln Crowne amp Company holds a series of registered trademarks in the United States of America and Australia to protect its intellectual property Those trademarks
are ldquoLincoln Crowne amp Companyrdquo Reg No 4107955 with the United States Patent amp Trademark Office and the following with the Australian Government as certified
by the Registrar of Trade Marks ldquoLincoln Crownerdquo (Trade Mark No 1423960) ldquoLincoln Crowne amp Companyrdquo (Trade Mark No 1423961) ldquoLCCrdquo (Trade Mark No
142116) and ldquolincolncrownerdquo (Trade Mark No 1424175)
SYDNEY
Suite 1 Level 30 Governor Phillip Tower
1 Farrer Place Sydney NSW 2000
AUSTRALIA
T +612 9262 2121
F +612 8088 1239
Correspondence
GPO Box 4154 Sydney NSW 2001
HONG KONG
20F One International Finance Centre
1 Harbour View Street Central Hong Kong
HONG KONG
T +852 3960 6532
F +852 3669 8008
WWWLCCASIA
AFSL 278054
ACN 105 807 645
DEAL CONTACTS
Nicholas Assef
+612 8288 8688
naalccasia
Simon Mathis
+612 8288 8603
sxmlccasia
LCC OBSERVATIONS 2
2020+ Contract Gap
LGC - 2015 Actual versus 2020+ Forecast
2015 (act) 2020+ (est)
WampS Operating or under construction in 2015 11522593 12500000
Hydro 707626 1480000
WCM Gas 803571 -
Other 2178780 2180000
Less VoluntaryGreen Power Scheme Surrender (est) 1200000 500000
Available for Compliance 14012570 15660000
LRET 18850000 33000000
Required New BuildNil (overhang of Small
Scale Generated RECrsquos)17340000
Less New Build underwritten by PPAs to support 2020 R amp SC
Compliance5480000
Less New Build underwritten by Current PPALGC Tenders 1600000
Less AGLs PARF (est) 2500000
Less Stockyard Hill Wind Farm (est) 1400000
NEW CONTRACTS REQUIRED 6360000
Data on LGCrsquos generated in calendar 2015 is available from the REC Registry (see data references on page 4)
bull Wind amp Solar combined was the major source of 2015 LGCrsquos and will be the new build technology of choice
bull Hydro has been a volatile source of certificates with 2015 being a particularly low year
bull Waste Coal Mine Gas certificates will not be eligible to create LGCrsquos after 2020
bull The voluntary surrender of certificates isnrsquot yet observable but recent history provides an estimate
bull The quantity of LGCrsquos available for compliance is some 74 of the 2015 target BUT the overhang of deemed certificates
means there is currently no trigger for new build
bull Looking forward to 2020 and beyond the requirement for new build is estimated to be 1734 mil per annum or around
$104b in total subsidy assuming an LGC price of $60 each
There are tenderrsquos for ~17ma LGCrsquos currently in market and contracts associated with AGLrsquos PARF and OELrsquos Stockyard Hill
WF will add ~39ma LGCrsquosa by 2020+
LCC estimates that the large (bankable) retailers need to enter into contracts for an additional ~55m LGCrsquosa by 2020 to
cover Retail amp Small Commercial compliance requirements as promised
This leaves the LRET target short by ~63m LGCrsquosa unless Wind and Solar farms are built relying on market revenues or other
contract solutions appear (~63m LGCrsquosa are created by ~2120 MW Wind farms or ~2880 MW Solar farms)
Comments
LCC OBSERVATIONS 3
Visible Contract Buy-side
Buyer Volume Status
Alinta Energy Unknown Open
City of Melbourne 110 GWha Flagged
Ergon Energy 150 MW Closed
QLD Solar 60 60 MW Closed
SA Govt Low Carbon
Electricitylt481 GWha Open
Sydney NW Metro 137 GWha Closed
Synergy 500k LGCrsquosa Open
VIC RE Tender lt320k LGCrsquosa Closed
Totals equiv 16m LGCrsquosa
Major
Retailer 2
Estimated
2015 R amp SC
consumption
2015
Compliance
covered by
contracted
Wind amp Solar
Extra R amp SC
LGC
compliance
requirement
in 2020
Announced
additional sources of
LGC generation
between 2016 amp
2020+
Extra Wind amp
Solar LGCrsquos
needed by 2020
AGL Energy 24 TWh 93 21m 1000 MW PARF None
Energy
Australia18 TWh 72 15m
Taralga amp Waterloo 2
WFrsquos174m
Origin
Energy31 TWh 71 26m
Bald Hill amp Stockyard
Hill WFrsquos amp Moree SF 333m
Ergon
Energy9 TWh
86 (including
Bagasse)730k
150 MW Wind Solar
PPA tender410k
Totals 88 TWh 742m 548m
Contracts underwritten by Residential amp Small Commercial Consumptions
Announced Contract Tenders
A number of tenders for supply LGCrsquos or
bundled electricity and LGCrsquos (Power
Purchase Agreements or (ldquoPPArsquosrdquo)) have
been issued that may support the LRET
Note projects that have been successful in
the various ACT Govt Feed in Tariff
(ldquoFiTrdquo) auctions are additional to the LRET
The QLD Solar 60 tender is only
supporting projects that are successful in
securing ARENA grant monies under the
large scale solar PV competitive round
The SA Govt Low Carbon Electricity
supply tender is open to technologies with
a carbon intensity of lt04tMWh which is
broader than eligible technologies under
the LRET
2 See next page for assumptions and data sources
LCC OBSERVATIONS 4
Calculation of Residential amp Small
Commercial Consumption
a) httpwwwescvicgovaugetattachment983c8101-90be-4173-b57e-73ec365f2648Energy-Retailers-
Comparative-Performance-Report-Cupdf
b) httpwwwescvicgovaugetattachment0fdace1d-e672-46bc-8b9b-b432340b2d34Energy-retailers-
comparative-performance-report-Cupdf
c) httpforecastingaemocomau
d) httpwwwaergovauindustry-informationindustry-
statisticsf[0]=field_accc_aer_stats_category3A1468
e) httpwwwresourcesandenergynswgovau__dataassetspdf_file0005499658ESS-Review-Issues-
Paperpdf
f) wwwrec-registrygovau
NEM Small Customer Numbers from AEMO amp ESC of VIC for Major Retailers
Split of Residential amp Small Commercial Customer Numbers from ESC of VIC
Average Daily Consumption by Residential Customers for each state from AEMO (latest 201011 data)
Average Daily Consumption by Small Commercial Customers ndash 150kWh (LCC analysis)
2020 Consumption based on AEMO Operational Consumption forecast
Wind amp Solar Project Annual Energy Production from REC Registry
Wind amp Solar Project Contract Position from LCC analysis
2020 Renewable Power Percentage based on AEMO Operational Consumption forecast
Assumptions
Data Sources
LCC OBSERVATIONSFLYER 5
IMPORTANT INFORMATION This Flyer (lsquoFlyerrsquo) has been drafted by Lincoln Crowne amp Company Pty Limited andor its affiliates (together ldquoLCCrdquo) for the exclusive
use of the party to whom LCC delivers this Flyer (the ldquoRecipientrdquo) using information provided from a variety of sources including publicly available information and
potentially information from the Recipient You acknowledge and agree LCC has not independently verified the information contained in this Flyer nor does LCC make
any Flyer or warranty either express or implied as to the accuracy completeness or reliability of the information contained in this Flyer This Flyer should not be
regarded by the Recipient as a substitute for the exercise of its own judgment and the Recipient is expected to rely on its own due diligence including separate legal
tax and accounting if it wishes to proceed further in relation to any transaction concept outlined in this Flyer
The indicative valuations forecasts estimates opinions and projections contained in this Flyer involve elements of subjective judgment and analysis They are based
on facts and data that are often subject to rapid change Any opinions expressed in this material are subject to change without notice This Flyer may contain forward-
looking statements included those reported by various Companies LCC undertakes no obligation to update these forward-looking statements for events or
circumstances that occur subsequent to such dates or to update or keep current any of the information contained in this Flyer Any estimates or projections as to events
that occur in the future (including projections of revenue expense net income and stock performance) are based upon the best judgment of LCC from the information
provided by the Recipient and other publicly available as of the date of this Flyer Any statements estimates or projections as to LCCrsquos fees or other pricing are accurate
only as at the date of this Flyer There is no guarantee that any of these estimates or projections will be achieved Actual results will vary from the projections and such
variations may be material
Nothing contained in this Flyer is or shall be relied upon as a promise or Flyer as to the past or the future LCC its affiliates directors employees andor agents
expressly disclaim any and all liability relating or resulting from inaccurate or incomplete information and the use or reliance of all or any part of this Flyer or any of the
information contained within this Flyer
By accepting this Flyer the Recipient acknowledges and agrees that LCC will at all times act as an independent contractor on an armrsquos-length basis and will not act in
any other capacity including in a fiduciary capacity with respect to the Recipient LCC may provide services to any member of the same group as the Recipient or any
other entity or person (a ldquoThird Partyrdquo) engage in any transaction (on its own account or otherwise) with respect to the Recipient or a Third Party or act in relation to any
matter for itself or any Third Party notwithstanding that such services transactions or actions may be adverse to the Recipient or any member of its group and LCC
may retain for its own benefit any related remuneration or profit
This Flyer has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not to be constructed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial
instruments The Recipient should not construe the contents of this Flyer as legal tax accounting or investment advice or a recommendation The Recipient should
consult its own counsel tax and financial advisors as to legal and related matters concerning any transaction described in this Flyer This Flyer does not purport to be
all-inclusive or to contain all of the information that the Recipient may require No investment divestment or other financial decisions or actions should be based solely
on the information in this Flyer
This Flyer has been prepared on a confidential basis solely for the use and benefit of the Recipient Distribution of this Flyer to any person other than the Recipient and
those persons retained to advice the Recipient who agree to maintain the confidentiality of this material and be bound by the limitations outlined herein is not
authorized by LCC LCC specifically prohibits the redistribution or reproduction of this material in whole or in part without the written permission of LCC and LCC
accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect
Lincoln Crowne amp Company holds a series of registered trademarks in the United States of America and Australia to protect its intellectual property Those trademarks
are ldquoLincoln Crowne amp Companyrdquo Reg No 4107955 with the United States Patent amp Trademark Office and the following with the Australian Government as certified
by the Registrar of Trade Marks ldquoLincoln Crownerdquo (Trade Mark No 1423960) ldquoLincoln Crowne amp Companyrdquo (Trade Mark No 1423961) ldquoLCCrdquo (Trade Mark No
142116) and ldquolincolncrownerdquo (Trade Mark No 1424175)
SYDNEY
Suite 1 Level 30 Governor Phillip Tower
1 Farrer Place Sydney NSW 2000
AUSTRALIA
T +612 9262 2121
F +612 8088 1239
Correspondence
GPO Box 4154 Sydney NSW 2001
HONG KONG
20F One International Finance Centre
1 Harbour View Street Central Hong Kong
HONG KONG
T +852 3960 6532
F +852 3669 8008
WWWLCCASIA
AFSL 278054
ACN 105 807 645
DEAL CONTACTS
Nicholas Assef
+612 8288 8688
naalccasia
Simon Mathis
+612 8288 8603
sxmlccasia
LCC OBSERVATIONS 3
Visible Contract Buy-side
Buyer Volume Status
Alinta Energy Unknown Open
City of Melbourne 110 GWha Flagged
Ergon Energy 150 MW Closed
QLD Solar 60 60 MW Closed
SA Govt Low Carbon
Electricitylt481 GWha Open
Sydney NW Metro 137 GWha Closed
Synergy 500k LGCrsquosa Open
VIC RE Tender lt320k LGCrsquosa Closed
Totals equiv 16m LGCrsquosa
Major
Retailer 2
Estimated
2015 R amp SC
consumption
2015
Compliance
covered by
contracted
Wind amp Solar
Extra R amp SC
LGC
compliance
requirement
in 2020
Announced
additional sources of
LGC generation
between 2016 amp
2020+
Extra Wind amp
Solar LGCrsquos
needed by 2020
AGL Energy 24 TWh 93 21m 1000 MW PARF None
Energy
Australia18 TWh 72 15m
Taralga amp Waterloo 2
WFrsquos174m
Origin
Energy31 TWh 71 26m
Bald Hill amp Stockyard
Hill WFrsquos amp Moree SF 333m
Ergon
Energy9 TWh
86 (including
Bagasse)730k
150 MW Wind Solar
PPA tender410k
Totals 88 TWh 742m 548m
Contracts underwritten by Residential amp Small Commercial Consumptions
Announced Contract Tenders
A number of tenders for supply LGCrsquos or
bundled electricity and LGCrsquos (Power
Purchase Agreements or (ldquoPPArsquosrdquo)) have
been issued that may support the LRET
Note projects that have been successful in
the various ACT Govt Feed in Tariff
(ldquoFiTrdquo) auctions are additional to the LRET
The QLD Solar 60 tender is only
supporting projects that are successful in
securing ARENA grant monies under the
large scale solar PV competitive round
The SA Govt Low Carbon Electricity
supply tender is open to technologies with
a carbon intensity of lt04tMWh which is
broader than eligible technologies under
the LRET
2 See next page for assumptions and data sources
LCC OBSERVATIONS 4
Calculation of Residential amp Small
Commercial Consumption
a) httpwwwescvicgovaugetattachment983c8101-90be-4173-b57e-73ec365f2648Energy-Retailers-
Comparative-Performance-Report-Cupdf
b) httpwwwescvicgovaugetattachment0fdace1d-e672-46bc-8b9b-b432340b2d34Energy-retailers-
comparative-performance-report-Cupdf
c) httpforecastingaemocomau
d) httpwwwaergovauindustry-informationindustry-
statisticsf[0]=field_accc_aer_stats_category3A1468
e) httpwwwresourcesandenergynswgovau__dataassetspdf_file0005499658ESS-Review-Issues-
Paperpdf
f) wwwrec-registrygovau
NEM Small Customer Numbers from AEMO amp ESC of VIC for Major Retailers
Split of Residential amp Small Commercial Customer Numbers from ESC of VIC
Average Daily Consumption by Residential Customers for each state from AEMO (latest 201011 data)
Average Daily Consumption by Small Commercial Customers ndash 150kWh (LCC analysis)
2020 Consumption based on AEMO Operational Consumption forecast
Wind amp Solar Project Annual Energy Production from REC Registry
Wind amp Solar Project Contract Position from LCC analysis
2020 Renewable Power Percentage based on AEMO Operational Consumption forecast
Assumptions
Data Sources
LCC OBSERVATIONSFLYER 5
IMPORTANT INFORMATION This Flyer (lsquoFlyerrsquo) has been drafted by Lincoln Crowne amp Company Pty Limited andor its affiliates (together ldquoLCCrdquo) for the exclusive
use of the party to whom LCC delivers this Flyer (the ldquoRecipientrdquo) using information provided from a variety of sources including publicly available information and
potentially information from the Recipient You acknowledge and agree LCC has not independently verified the information contained in this Flyer nor does LCC make
any Flyer or warranty either express or implied as to the accuracy completeness or reliability of the information contained in this Flyer This Flyer should not be
regarded by the Recipient as a substitute for the exercise of its own judgment and the Recipient is expected to rely on its own due diligence including separate legal
tax and accounting if it wishes to proceed further in relation to any transaction concept outlined in this Flyer
The indicative valuations forecasts estimates opinions and projections contained in this Flyer involve elements of subjective judgment and analysis They are based
on facts and data that are often subject to rapid change Any opinions expressed in this material are subject to change without notice This Flyer may contain forward-
looking statements included those reported by various Companies LCC undertakes no obligation to update these forward-looking statements for events or
circumstances that occur subsequent to such dates or to update or keep current any of the information contained in this Flyer Any estimates or projections as to events
that occur in the future (including projections of revenue expense net income and stock performance) are based upon the best judgment of LCC from the information
provided by the Recipient and other publicly available as of the date of this Flyer Any statements estimates or projections as to LCCrsquos fees or other pricing are accurate
only as at the date of this Flyer There is no guarantee that any of these estimates or projections will be achieved Actual results will vary from the projections and such
variations may be material
Nothing contained in this Flyer is or shall be relied upon as a promise or Flyer as to the past or the future LCC its affiliates directors employees andor agents
expressly disclaim any and all liability relating or resulting from inaccurate or incomplete information and the use or reliance of all or any part of this Flyer or any of the
information contained within this Flyer
By accepting this Flyer the Recipient acknowledges and agrees that LCC will at all times act as an independent contractor on an armrsquos-length basis and will not act in
any other capacity including in a fiduciary capacity with respect to the Recipient LCC may provide services to any member of the same group as the Recipient or any
other entity or person (a ldquoThird Partyrdquo) engage in any transaction (on its own account or otherwise) with respect to the Recipient or a Third Party or act in relation to any
matter for itself or any Third Party notwithstanding that such services transactions or actions may be adverse to the Recipient or any member of its group and LCC
may retain for its own benefit any related remuneration or profit
This Flyer has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not to be constructed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial
instruments The Recipient should not construe the contents of this Flyer as legal tax accounting or investment advice or a recommendation The Recipient should
consult its own counsel tax and financial advisors as to legal and related matters concerning any transaction described in this Flyer This Flyer does not purport to be
all-inclusive or to contain all of the information that the Recipient may require No investment divestment or other financial decisions or actions should be based solely
on the information in this Flyer
This Flyer has been prepared on a confidential basis solely for the use and benefit of the Recipient Distribution of this Flyer to any person other than the Recipient and
those persons retained to advice the Recipient who agree to maintain the confidentiality of this material and be bound by the limitations outlined herein is not
authorized by LCC LCC specifically prohibits the redistribution or reproduction of this material in whole or in part without the written permission of LCC and LCC
accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect
Lincoln Crowne amp Company holds a series of registered trademarks in the United States of America and Australia to protect its intellectual property Those trademarks
are ldquoLincoln Crowne amp Companyrdquo Reg No 4107955 with the United States Patent amp Trademark Office and the following with the Australian Government as certified
by the Registrar of Trade Marks ldquoLincoln Crownerdquo (Trade Mark No 1423960) ldquoLincoln Crowne amp Companyrdquo (Trade Mark No 1423961) ldquoLCCrdquo (Trade Mark No
142116) and ldquolincolncrownerdquo (Trade Mark No 1424175)
SYDNEY
Suite 1 Level 30 Governor Phillip Tower
1 Farrer Place Sydney NSW 2000
AUSTRALIA
T +612 9262 2121
F +612 8088 1239
Correspondence
GPO Box 4154 Sydney NSW 2001
HONG KONG
20F One International Finance Centre
1 Harbour View Street Central Hong Kong
HONG KONG
T +852 3960 6532
F +852 3669 8008
WWWLCCASIA
AFSL 278054
ACN 105 807 645
DEAL CONTACTS
Nicholas Assef
+612 8288 8688
naalccasia
Simon Mathis
+612 8288 8603
sxmlccasia
LCC OBSERVATIONS 4
Calculation of Residential amp Small
Commercial Consumption
a) httpwwwescvicgovaugetattachment983c8101-90be-4173-b57e-73ec365f2648Energy-Retailers-
Comparative-Performance-Report-Cupdf
b) httpwwwescvicgovaugetattachment0fdace1d-e672-46bc-8b9b-b432340b2d34Energy-retailers-
comparative-performance-report-Cupdf
c) httpforecastingaemocomau
d) httpwwwaergovauindustry-informationindustry-
statisticsf[0]=field_accc_aer_stats_category3A1468
e) httpwwwresourcesandenergynswgovau__dataassetspdf_file0005499658ESS-Review-Issues-
Paperpdf
f) wwwrec-registrygovau
NEM Small Customer Numbers from AEMO amp ESC of VIC for Major Retailers
Split of Residential amp Small Commercial Customer Numbers from ESC of VIC
Average Daily Consumption by Residential Customers for each state from AEMO (latest 201011 data)
Average Daily Consumption by Small Commercial Customers ndash 150kWh (LCC analysis)
2020 Consumption based on AEMO Operational Consumption forecast
Wind amp Solar Project Annual Energy Production from REC Registry
Wind amp Solar Project Contract Position from LCC analysis
2020 Renewable Power Percentage based on AEMO Operational Consumption forecast
Assumptions
Data Sources
LCC OBSERVATIONSFLYER 5
IMPORTANT INFORMATION This Flyer (lsquoFlyerrsquo) has been drafted by Lincoln Crowne amp Company Pty Limited andor its affiliates (together ldquoLCCrdquo) for the exclusive
use of the party to whom LCC delivers this Flyer (the ldquoRecipientrdquo) using information provided from a variety of sources including publicly available information and
potentially information from the Recipient You acknowledge and agree LCC has not independently verified the information contained in this Flyer nor does LCC make
any Flyer or warranty either express or implied as to the accuracy completeness or reliability of the information contained in this Flyer This Flyer should not be
regarded by the Recipient as a substitute for the exercise of its own judgment and the Recipient is expected to rely on its own due diligence including separate legal
tax and accounting if it wishes to proceed further in relation to any transaction concept outlined in this Flyer
The indicative valuations forecasts estimates opinions and projections contained in this Flyer involve elements of subjective judgment and analysis They are based
on facts and data that are often subject to rapid change Any opinions expressed in this material are subject to change without notice This Flyer may contain forward-
looking statements included those reported by various Companies LCC undertakes no obligation to update these forward-looking statements for events or
circumstances that occur subsequent to such dates or to update or keep current any of the information contained in this Flyer Any estimates or projections as to events
that occur in the future (including projections of revenue expense net income and stock performance) are based upon the best judgment of LCC from the information
provided by the Recipient and other publicly available as of the date of this Flyer Any statements estimates or projections as to LCCrsquos fees or other pricing are accurate
only as at the date of this Flyer There is no guarantee that any of these estimates or projections will be achieved Actual results will vary from the projections and such
variations may be material
Nothing contained in this Flyer is or shall be relied upon as a promise or Flyer as to the past or the future LCC its affiliates directors employees andor agents
expressly disclaim any and all liability relating or resulting from inaccurate or incomplete information and the use or reliance of all or any part of this Flyer or any of the
information contained within this Flyer
By accepting this Flyer the Recipient acknowledges and agrees that LCC will at all times act as an independent contractor on an armrsquos-length basis and will not act in
any other capacity including in a fiduciary capacity with respect to the Recipient LCC may provide services to any member of the same group as the Recipient or any
other entity or person (a ldquoThird Partyrdquo) engage in any transaction (on its own account or otherwise) with respect to the Recipient or a Third Party or act in relation to any
matter for itself or any Third Party notwithstanding that such services transactions or actions may be adverse to the Recipient or any member of its group and LCC
may retain for its own benefit any related remuneration or profit
This Flyer has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not to be constructed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial
instruments The Recipient should not construe the contents of this Flyer as legal tax accounting or investment advice or a recommendation The Recipient should
consult its own counsel tax and financial advisors as to legal and related matters concerning any transaction described in this Flyer This Flyer does not purport to be
all-inclusive or to contain all of the information that the Recipient may require No investment divestment or other financial decisions or actions should be based solely
on the information in this Flyer
This Flyer has been prepared on a confidential basis solely for the use and benefit of the Recipient Distribution of this Flyer to any person other than the Recipient and
those persons retained to advice the Recipient who agree to maintain the confidentiality of this material and be bound by the limitations outlined herein is not
authorized by LCC LCC specifically prohibits the redistribution or reproduction of this material in whole or in part without the written permission of LCC and LCC
accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect
Lincoln Crowne amp Company holds a series of registered trademarks in the United States of America and Australia to protect its intellectual property Those trademarks
are ldquoLincoln Crowne amp Companyrdquo Reg No 4107955 with the United States Patent amp Trademark Office and the following with the Australian Government as certified
by the Registrar of Trade Marks ldquoLincoln Crownerdquo (Trade Mark No 1423960) ldquoLincoln Crowne amp Companyrdquo (Trade Mark No 1423961) ldquoLCCrdquo (Trade Mark No
142116) and ldquolincolncrownerdquo (Trade Mark No 1424175)
SYDNEY
Suite 1 Level 30 Governor Phillip Tower
1 Farrer Place Sydney NSW 2000
AUSTRALIA
T +612 9262 2121
F +612 8088 1239
Correspondence
GPO Box 4154 Sydney NSW 2001
HONG KONG
20F One International Finance Centre
1 Harbour View Street Central Hong Kong
HONG KONG
T +852 3960 6532
F +852 3669 8008
WWWLCCASIA
AFSL 278054
ACN 105 807 645
DEAL CONTACTS
Nicholas Assef
+612 8288 8688
naalccasia
Simon Mathis
+612 8288 8603
sxmlccasia
LCC OBSERVATIONSFLYER 5
IMPORTANT INFORMATION This Flyer (lsquoFlyerrsquo) has been drafted by Lincoln Crowne amp Company Pty Limited andor its affiliates (together ldquoLCCrdquo) for the exclusive
use of the party to whom LCC delivers this Flyer (the ldquoRecipientrdquo) using information provided from a variety of sources including publicly available information and
potentially information from the Recipient You acknowledge and agree LCC has not independently verified the information contained in this Flyer nor does LCC make
any Flyer or warranty either express or implied as to the accuracy completeness or reliability of the information contained in this Flyer This Flyer should not be
regarded by the Recipient as a substitute for the exercise of its own judgment and the Recipient is expected to rely on its own due diligence including separate legal
tax and accounting if it wishes to proceed further in relation to any transaction concept outlined in this Flyer
The indicative valuations forecasts estimates opinions and projections contained in this Flyer involve elements of subjective judgment and analysis They are based
on facts and data that are often subject to rapid change Any opinions expressed in this material are subject to change without notice This Flyer may contain forward-
looking statements included those reported by various Companies LCC undertakes no obligation to update these forward-looking statements for events or
circumstances that occur subsequent to such dates or to update or keep current any of the information contained in this Flyer Any estimates or projections as to events
that occur in the future (including projections of revenue expense net income and stock performance) are based upon the best judgment of LCC from the information
provided by the Recipient and other publicly available as of the date of this Flyer Any statements estimates or projections as to LCCrsquos fees or other pricing are accurate
only as at the date of this Flyer There is no guarantee that any of these estimates or projections will be achieved Actual results will vary from the projections and such
variations may be material
Nothing contained in this Flyer is or shall be relied upon as a promise or Flyer as to the past or the future LCC its affiliates directors employees andor agents
expressly disclaim any and all liability relating or resulting from inaccurate or incomplete information and the use or reliance of all or any part of this Flyer or any of the
information contained within this Flyer
By accepting this Flyer the Recipient acknowledges and agrees that LCC will at all times act as an independent contractor on an armrsquos-length basis and will not act in
any other capacity including in a fiduciary capacity with respect to the Recipient LCC may provide services to any member of the same group as the Recipient or any
other entity or person (a ldquoThird Partyrdquo) engage in any transaction (on its own account or otherwise) with respect to the Recipient or a Third Party or act in relation to any
matter for itself or any Third Party notwithstanding that such services transactions or actions may be adverse to the Recipient or any member of its group and LCC
may retain for its own benefit any related remuneration or profit
This Flyer has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not to be constructed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial
instruments The Recipient should not construe the contents of this Flyer as legal tax accounting or investment advice or a recommendation The Recipient should
consult its own counsel tax and financial advisors as to legal and related matters concerning any transaction described in this Flyer This Flyer does not purport to be
all-inclusive or to contain all of the information that the Recipient may require No investment divestment or other financial decisions or actions should be based solely
on the information in this Flyer
This Flyer has been prepared on a confidential basis solely for the use and benefit of the Recipient Distribution of this Flyer to any person other than the Recipient and
those persons retained to advice the Recipient who agree to maintain the confidentiality of this material and be bound by the limitations outlined herein is not
authorized by LCC LCC specifically prohibits the redistribution or reproduction of this material in whole or in part without the written permission of LCC and LCC
accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect
Lincoln Crowne amp Company holds a series of registered trademarks in the United States of America and Australia to protect its intellectual property Those trademarks
are ldquoLincoln Crowne amp Companyrdquo Reg No 4107955 with the United States Patent amp Trademark Office and the following with the Australian Government as certified
by the Registrar of Trade Marks ldquoLincoln Crownerdquo (Trade Mark No 1423960) ldquoLincoln Crowne amp Companyrdquo (Trade Mark No 1423961) ldquoLCCrdquo (Trade Mark No
142116) and ldquolincolncrownerdquo (Trade Mark No 1424175)
SYDNEY
Suite 1 Level 30 Governor Phillip Tower
1 Farrer Place Sydney NSW 2000
AUSTRALIA
T +612 9262 2121
F +612 8088 1239
Correspondence
GPO Box 4154 Sydney NSW 2001
HONG KONG
20F One International Finance Centre
1 Harbour View Street Central Hong Kong
HONG KONG
T +852 3960 6532
F +852 3669 8008
WWWLCCASIA
AFSL 278054
ACN 105 807 645
DEAL CONTACTS
Nicholas Assef
+612 8288 8688
naalccasia
Simon Mathis
+612 8288 8603
sxmlccasia
