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Brief Outline 1. One degree mapping 2. Monthly emissions 3. Error analyses 4. Stable carbon isotope signatures 2010 CDIAC Advisory Panel Meeting 3/11
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Continuing Evolution of the CDIAC Fossil-Fuel-Derived
Carbon Dioxide EmissionsTime Series:
Past, Present, and Future
Bob Andres
Gregg Marland, Tom Boden
2010 CDIAC Advisory Panel Meeting 1/11
Basis of CDIAC FF CO2 Time Series
Year1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
Car
bon
Dio
xide
Em
issi
ons (
Tg
C)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000Legend
TotalSolid fuelsLiquid fuelsGaseous fuelsGas flaringCement production
2010 CDIAC Advisory Panel Meeting 2/11
Brief Outline
1. One degree mapping2. Monthly emissions3. Error analyses4. Stable carbon isotope signatures
2010 CDIAC Advisory Panel Meeting 3/11
One Degree MappingVesta Animation, 2010
2010 CDIAC Advisory Panel Meeting 4/11
Monthly Emissions
2010 CDIAC Advisory Panel Meeting 5/11
Error Analyses- Estimates1. Marland and Rotty (1984)
10.2% (dependent) to 6.1% (independent)90% confidence intervalbased on evaluation of individual terms in calculation
2. Andres, Marland, Houghton (in prep.)9.55 to 9.74 % 95% confidence interval (2 sigma)based on quantifying the qualitative national error classes of
Andres et al. (1996)
3. Jonas, Hamal, Marland (various stages) and Andres and Marland (in prep., parallel effort)x % based primarily on changes in self-reported totals
4. Macknick (2009)-2.9 to 4.8%comparison of EIA, IEA, UN/CDIAC, and EDGAR data
2010 CDIAC Advisory Panel Meeting 6/11
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Sour
ces
(Pg
C/y
ear)
0
2
4
6
8
10
Year1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Sink
s (P
g C
/ yea
r)
0
2
4
6
8
10
Legend
Fo ssil Fuel +La nd U se
Legend
Ocea n U pta keA tmo spheric Increa seTerrestria l U pta ke
Error Analyses- Why?
2010 CDIAC Advisory Panel Meeting 7/11
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Sour
ces
(Pg
C/y
ear)
0
2
4
6
8
10
Year1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Sink
s (P
g C
/ yea
r)
0
2
4
6
8
10
Legend
Fo ssil Fuel +La nd U se
Legend
Ocea n U pta keA tmo spheric Increa seTerrestria l U pta ke
Error Analyses- Why?
Year1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Sink
s (Pg
C/ y
ear)
0
2
4
6
8
10Legend
Ocean UptakeAtmospheric IncreaseTerrestrial Uptake
2010 CDIAC Advisory Panel Meeting 8/11
Stable Carbon Isotope Signatures
Year1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000St
able
Car
bon
Isot
ope
Sign
atur
e (d
el13C
, per
mil)
-29
-28
-27
-26
-25
-24
2010 CDIAC Advisory Panel Meeting 9/11
Forthcoming1. Lead author on RECCAP chapter on fossil fuel emissions
2. More publications with utilization of monthly data in new applications
3. FF inventory role in GHGIS?
4. Expanded and improved FFCO2 database interfacelinks together existing dataallows queriesallows simple analyses
5. Other opportunities when contacted by those who realize our expertise in FFCO2 emissions
2010 CDIAC Advisory Panel Meeting 10/11
Conclusions
1. CDIAC offers a basic data product for FF CO2 emission estimates, as well as variants on that data.
2. This data is widely used and in many applications.
3. We look forward to your input to help guide our future activities.
2010 CDIAC Advisory Panel Meeting 11/11