Context for the Opportunities in Asia Pacific€¦ · PT Petro Indo Mandiri PT SGT Begesin Balang Sandaun T&S Kapul Zircon PNG Prime Platanus Landbridge O.G. Sapura Orient Energy

© 2018 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. 1© 2018 IHS Markit.All Rights Reserved.

Context for the Opportunities

in Asia PacificDylan Mair

Antonio Dimabuyu

1

© 2018 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. 2

Slide 2

Agenda

Investors

Activity Trends

Costs

Country Highlights

Opportunities

2

© 2018 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. 3 Source: IHS Companies & Transactions

-

1

2

3

4

5

6

Australia Bangladesh

Indonesia Malaysia

New Zealand PNG

Philippines Thailand

Vietnam

Beach

LatticeBenaris

OMV

Shell

PTT

Shell

Ophir

Santos

Medco

INPEX

XOM

Interoil

OG

NZOG

Medco

COP

Woodside

BHPP

BP

Repsol

PNE

Chevronglobal deals

Pertamina Neptune

M&P Engie

$B

More deals and higher value already in 2018

Asia Pacific upstream deals bottomed in 2017

Buyers

Sellers

Woodside

XOM

ENN

Hony

Santos Mitsui

AWE


Basin masters maintain core positions

Operator mastery based on contract count

Source: IHS EDIN


PGN

OphirKPC

Cen SumatraGulf Petr.

KrisenergyMOECO

NZOGEast West

Tag

MurphyOrigin

PetrochinaChevron

Many other existing players adding acreage

Added contracts from July 2016 to June 2018

KOGASPetronas

MitsuiPetrochina

TotalCNOOC

Tokyo GasGalileeSenex

Energy WorldBeachBountyCooper

Planet Gas

Lakes

Chi O&G

SeymourHydra

ExxonMobilShell

PancontinentalUIL

TriangleWhitebark

Southern Sky

Terra Tasmania

Operators

Non-operatorsNZOG

East WestTag

Southern Sky

Dondonald

Petrobangla

PT Sugico Graha

ChevronTotal

Sovico

KumulJX

SantosOsaka GasP3 Global

Repsol

PT Balmoral Gas

Source: IHS EDIN


Operators

Non-operators

Batavia OilJX Group

Karunia UtamaPetrolia

Prime NatunaPT GHJ SeramPT Hutama Wiranusa

PT Petro Indo Mandiri

PT SGTBegesinBalang

Sandaun

KapulT&SZircon PNG Prime

Platanus

LandbridgeO.G.

Sapura

Orient Energy

Skye Alba

3C GroupCycloneRoyal

CiticKC Resources

MapellaNS Coal

Scap OakySinopecTag Oil

Many new country entrants and more in play

More than 60 new country entrants in the last 24 months

JX Group

Rouge Rock

Macquarie Oaky Creek

Eastern Gas

PT Aceh Timur Kawai

APIC

Hurunui District Council

Geoforce Drilling

Igiri

Hardie

Hardie

3C GroupCycloneRoyal

PT Cogen NusantaraBismark

Changcheng Group

Source: IHS EDIN


Total’s comprehensive exploration program

Diverse offshore frontier & near-field portfolio

Since 2015

Farmed in 2015;

taking operatorship

two large gas discoveries

Farmed in 2016

non-operator

3D seismic Q1 2018

Awarded 2017

Source:

IHS GEPS, EDIN

Farmed in 2017

non-operator

Aung Yadana 1 (2017)

3D seismic Q1 2018

two large gas discoveries

seismic begun 2018

Took over from

BHPB (op) 2015

Tepat 1 (2018)

Tepat 1 (2018)

Awarded 2016

Awarded 2016

Antelope appraised

Sri Lanka awards 2016

2D seismic (2015)

Relinquishing

Mailu 1 (2019)

Antelope South 1 (2018)Shell farmin 2017


Steady number of 3D surveys since 2016

Very large 3Ds completed while 2D surveys decline

Source: IHS EDIN

Map shows surveys 2016-18

81

63

43

33

21

8

113

79

69

44 43

18

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

‘00

0s lin

e k

m ; ‘0

00

s s

qkm

█ 3D sq km

█ 2D line km

▬ # 3D surveys

▬ # 2D surveys

3D survey

2D survey


▬ Wildcats trend

▬ Appraisals trend

0

50

100

150

200

250

Wild

ca

ts

App

rais

als

Wild

ca

ts

App

rais

als

Wild

ca

ts

App

rais

als

Wild

ca

ts

App

rais

als

Wild

ca

ts

App

rais

als

Wild

ca

ts

App

rais

als

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

TS JPDA

Taiwan

MTJDA

Bangladesh

Philippines

Brunei

PNG

New Zealand

Myanmar

Vietnam

Malaysia

Off.S.China

Indonesia

Thailand

Australia

Source: IHS EDIN

Conventional wildcat drilling recovering in 2017

2017 wildcats still down 40% from 2013 ………

Operators drilling fifteen or more

wildcats & appraisals 2013-18

050100150200

CNOOCSantosPTTEPBeachPetronasPertaminaChevronShellVictoriaMubadalaPVEPVietsovpetroCEPSARepsolPan OrientWoodsideStuartOil SearchMurphyECO OrientQuadrantCOPChealOphirSapuraMedcoPetroChinaTotalKrisEnergyLundinBuruInteroilJXHessPetrofacEniBAPEXInpexMP B5ApacheCPOCBHPBHLJOCAWEYCPCGreymouthCNPCOMVCIMPCLAcerGentingBridgeportJadestoneSinopecSaka

Onshore

Shelf

Deep Water


012

CNOOCShellPetronasXOMSapuraPertaminaChevronOil SearchWoodsideGentingPetroVietnamQuadrantMubadalaEniSantosTotalDaewooBeachMurphyMitsubishiRepsolPGNINPEXAWEPetroBANGLAVideoconOphirPremierMPRLJXCarnarvonCOPBPCLStarbornTranscendentIdemitsu

Oil

Condensate

Gas

2018 discoveries off to a good start

10

Source: IHS EDIN

CNOOC leading 2013-2018 net discovered volumes

Bboe

96 99

53

3944

15

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

1

2

3

4

5

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Australia

Indonesia

Offshore

S.China

Malaysia

Vietnam

PNG

Also PH, TW,

TH, NZ, BD

Myanmar

# Discoveries

Brunei

1.8 Bboe


Appraisals

Some highlights of EUR growth

through appraisal drilling

Source: IHS EDIN

▬ Gas

▬ Oil and Gas

▬ Oil

-

800

1990 2018

P'nyang 1

-

360

2012 2018

Lofin 1ST1 -

62

2008 2018

Lengo

-

125

2006 2018

Chim Sao

-

16

2006 2018

Kowhai

-

55

2002 2018

Desaru West

-

1,050

2011 2018

Kasawari

-

180

2000 2018

Tidepole

-

150

2014 2018

Waitsia

1000

50

20

400

50


Offshore exploration spend half of historic highs

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

North America flat into 2018 Latin America 4% decrease into 2018

Europe 3% decrease into 2018 Asia Pacific flat into 2018

Africa 9% decrease into 2018 Middle East flat into 2018

Russia & Caspian 8% increase into 2018

Asia Pacific exploration drilling and well services spending flat into 2018

Source: IHS Markit

Source: IHS Companies & Transactions


Regional rig rates lowest in more than 10 years

Have jackup rates bottomed out? Floater rates converge above cost

Source: IHS Rigpoint

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18

Semi-subs Aus/Asia DW

Semi-subs Aus/Asia MW

Jackups Aus/NZ

Jackups SE Asia


East Malaysia supply and capacity

Sabah deepwater carbonate play opener

Malaysia: Prospecting to supply LNG

ExxonMobil

3 DW blocks

Total

Tepat 1

Fields >500m WD

Carbonates

Clastics

Shell

Malampaya-

Camago

PFLNG2

Source: IHS Vantage, EDIN

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Sarawak to LNG

PFLNG1

GTLMLNG


-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Indonesia: new terms drive change

PSCs and JOAs re-awarded under gross-

split terms impact liquids production first

‘B’ Block

PSC Ext

Rokan PSC

Malacca Strait PSC Ext

Selat Panjang PSC

Bentu PSC

Lirik PSC

South Jambi

‘B’ PSC

Rajah JOA

Jambi Merang JOA

Brantas PSC

Makassar Strait PSC Ext

Seram (Non-Bula) PSC Ext

Salawati Kepala Burung JOA

IOC, local & JOC production

Production from expired contracts

Pertamina production

Indonesia liquid production from expiring contracts to 2040

Expiring 2018

Expiring 2019

Expiring 2020

Expiring 2021

Source: IHS Vantage, EDIN

Bula Field PSC Ext

Kepala Burung PSC Ext


Myanmar: exploration maturing, high-grading

Several blocks relinquished after initial exploration period

0

5

10

15

20

25

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Awarded

Expired

Reliance

2015-17PTTEP

2013-16

Shell

2015-17

Statoil

2015-18

Nobel

2012-17

PTTEP

2012-18

Oil India

2014-18

Tap

2015-18

Geopetrol

2012-17

EPI

2012-17

Shell

2015-17

MPRL

2014-18

Awarded and expired since 2010

Awarded since 2010

Source: IHS EDIN


Australia: many commitments are on hold

100 contracts ended, 123 extended since 1 January 2017

Events of “December 2017” are labelled

Santos WA-323-P

6 mo. ext. to contract

& study commitment

Murphy EPP 43

2 year ext. to contract, 1 well & seismic

commitments; adds new study commitments

Advent PEP 11

2.5 year extension to contract and

1 well plus seismic commitments

Black Gold ATP 739-P

Relinquished without

completing commitments

Santos ATP 820-P

Relinquished without

completing commitments

Quadrant WA-505-P

Relinquished w/out

well commitment

Statoil WA-506-P

Relinquished w/out

well commitment

BP EPP 37 & EPP 38

Cancelled for not drilling

commitment wells

Eni AC/P21

18 mo. ext. to contract

& well commitment

SGH Energy WA-377-P

1 year ext. adds studies

before well commitment

Macallum Group EP 494

Reduced seismic commitment

Magellan NT/P82

18 month commitment suspension

Pilot Energy EP 416

6 mo. commitment suspension

Source: IHS GEPS, EDIN

Extension

Ended


Proven explorers target high impact wells

Local explorers holding further potential

Woodside

Ophir *

Woodside

Pliocene turbidites

Eni

Miocene carbonates

Berlanga

Miocene Limestone

Pliocene clastics

Eni

Jurassic clastics

Cue †

Cue †

Woodside

Triassic clastics

Quadrant

Triassic clastics

Finder †

Permian carbonates

NZOG *†

Cretaceous draped clastics

Total

Oil Search

Miocene carbonate

Larus *†

Jurassic sands

Eocene/Miocene carbonates

Total

Eocene/Miocene carbonates

Source: IHS GEPS

“High impact”: Prospective for

100+ MMboe or a play opener

* Drill date not confirmed† Farm-in opportunity


2018 2019 2020

Western Australia 2017 (5)

Australia 2017 Federal (1)

Australia 2017 Federal (9)

Queensland 2018 (10)

Victoria 2018 Offshore (5)

Australia 2018 1st Tranche (9)

Australia 2018 Cash Bid (5)

Australia 2018 2nd Tranche (7)

Australia 2019 Nominations

Australia 2017 2x (7)

Queensland next 3 rounds (11,11,7)

Indonesia Conv 2018 (Regular)

China 2018 Offshore Round

N.Z. 2018 Onshore Offer

Bangladesh 5th Round *

Thailand Bongkot & Erawan

Thailand 21st Bid Round*

Philippines PCECP Regular Blocks *

Philippines PCECP Nomination

Vietnam Open Block Promotion

Malaysia Open BlocksProposed / Upcoming

Ongoing

Open blocks (Vietnam, Malaysia)

License round awards since 1 July 2016Source: IHS GEPS, EDIN

19 June 2018

Open & nomination blocks, farm-ins, direct negotiation...

Bid rounds are one source of opportunity

* To be confirmed


Slide 20

1. Context

2. Myanmar

3. Papua New Guinea

4. Indonesia

5. South China Sea

6. Cambodia and regional

7. Northwest Borneo

8. Australia & Timor Leste

Farm out and opportunity talks

Posters

Session 2

Session 5

Session 7

Session 4Session 8 Session 3

Session 6

IHS Markit Customer Care

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21

Thank You!

Myanmar: A Global Exploration Hotspot

Unleashing the Petroleum Systems Potential

13-15 November, Yangon, Myanmar

Documents

Context for the Opportunities in Asia Pacific€¦ · PT Petro Indo Mandiri PT SGT Begesin Balang Sandaun T&S Kapul Zircon PNG Prime Platanus Landbridge O.G. Sapura Orient Energy