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Considering Climate and Environmental Impacts on Infrastructure Projects in the US and Developing Countries

Dana Spindler and Michael Savonis ICF International

TRB Conference on Resiliency September 16, 2015

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Overview

Executive Order 13677

Project Examples

• DAWEI, Myanmar

• Song Bung Hydropower Plant, Vietnam

CEQ Draft Guidance of December 2014

Project Example

• Tongue River Railroad, Montana

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Executive Order 13677 --- Climate-Resilient International Development

Section 1. Policy

Section 2. Incorporating Climate Resilience into International Development

Section 3. Enhancing Data, Tools, and Information for Climate Resilient International Development

Section 4. Working Group on Climate-Resilient International Development

Section 5. Implementation and Reporting of Progress

Section 6. Climate-Change Mitigation

Section 7. Definitions

Section 8. General Provisions.

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Executive Order 13677 --- Policy "Even with increased efforts to curb these [GHG] emissions, we

must prepare for and adapt to the impacts of climate change."

"Consideration of current and future climate-change impacts will improve the resilience of the Federal Government's broader international development programs, projects, investments, overseas facilities, and related funding decisions."

"This order requires the integration of climate-resilience considerations into all United States International development work to the extent permitted by law."

"Collectively, these efforts will help to better optimize broader international development work and lead to enhanced global preparedness for and resilience to climate change."

Text pulled from E.O. 13677, emphasis added.

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Asia Region Field Support – Environmental and Climate Impacts

Examination of 6 projects, $1 Billion+, for USAID • Environmental benefits and concerns • Social impacts • Environmental and social commitments • Climate change projections • Potential climate impacts • Adaptation options • Monitoring and evaluation

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Dawei Seaport and Industrial Zone, Burma, $8.6 Billion

Dam Construction: Transition Wall and Slap Casted Progress (Source: ITD, 2013).

Project Components Deep seaport Small port 132 km highway Rail links Oil and gas pipelines Industrial complex Residential housing Coal-fired powerplant Dam and reservoir 1040 MW hydropower

project

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Environmental and Social Concerns Loss of 35 km2 of mangrove forests reducing

protection from wind and wave action

Habitat fragmentation and forest degradation, with negative consequences on the Thai-Burma Tenasserim Biodiversity Conservation Corridor

Strained water resources, especially the Dawei River in the dry season

Massive resettlement of local residents, possibly affecting over 30,000 people from 20 villages

Dawei Seaport and Industrial Zone

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Climate Change Projections Precipitation: Increase in total rainfall during the rainy season by

2080. Temperature: Up to 1.7 to 3.7°C by 2080 Average daily maximum could reach 40°C in April by end of century Sea-level rise: 36% of population in Burma lives in coastal areas that

face flood risk. 15 cm rise by 2030 and 45 cm rise by 2080.

Average Monthly Temperature and Rainfall at Dawei from 1960-1990 (left) and from 1990-2009 (right) (Source: World Bank 2013)

Dawei Seaport and Industrial Zone

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Potential Climate Impacts on the Project

Increased Temperature • Extreme heat damaging paved surfaces and metal structures • Increased pests, rust, mold – leading to spoilage of foods • Increased demand for energy and potential for outages • Safety risks for workers

Increased Heavy Precipitation • Coastal flooding – expedite facility deterioration • Riverine flooding – disrupt transportation • Reduced visibility of port operations • Damage of stored goods

Sea Level Rise and Tropical

Cyclone Intensity • Coastal facility inundation • Damage and destruction of

facilities

Dawei Seaport and Industrial Zone

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Adaptation Options

Backup generators

Heat-appropriate materials

Increased quality checks for perishable goods

Increase availability of refrigeration, cooling, insulation, ventilation systems

Update design and construction practices to incorporate future conditions (including flooding and sea level rise)

Move critical infrastructure out of low-lying areas

Insulate water-sensitive appliances

Small port as of June 15, 2013 (Source: ITD, 2013).

Dawei Seaport and Industrial Zone

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Song Bung Hydropower Plant in Vietnam Project Components Dam Reservoir 156 MW

hydropower plant on the Bung River

Relocation of affected people

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Environmental and Social Concerns Reservoir will flood 142 ha of the Song Thanh

Nature Reserve Loss of 30 km of river habitat Loss of long-distance migratory species (e.g.,

Angulla marmorata) Loss of settlements and economic resources by

flooding 4 villages inundating houses, agricultural land, most fish ponds, and 50% of the grazing ground

Relocation

Song Bung Hydropower Plant

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Climate Change Projections Precipitation: End of century dry season decrease by 14.2%

and 12.1% increase during wet season Runoff: Anticipated to be reduced during the dry season and

increased during the wet season

Song Bung Hydropower Plant

Temperature: Up to 2.8°C by end of the century for June to August (high emissions)

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Potential Climate Impacts on the Project Flooding

• Damage to dam and auxiliary infrastructure

• Overtopping erosion of structure and catastrophic downstream flooding

• Increased runoff sediment build-up

Variable Flows Evaporation and Increased

Temperatures • Could decrease potential output and

profits

Song Bung Hydropower Plant

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Adaptation Options

Upgrade project assets to protect from damage

Increase frequency of routine tests and maintenance – identify problems and maintenance needs early

Adjust production expectations to fit available supply

Monitor and adjust operations to lessen environmental stresses downstream during the dry season (low flow)

Song Bung Hydropower Plant

Construction of the Song Bung 4 Hydropower Plant (Source: ADB, 2013).

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CEQ Guidance, December 2014 “Agencies should consider …the implications of climate change for the environmental effects of a proposed action.” Includes climate change impacts:

• On a proposed project from sea level rise, increased heat, drought, and extreme events such as intense rainfall, and storm surge, and

• On the environment affected by the proposed project (habitat loss, endangered species, etc.)

Time horizon: Expected project lifespan

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Tongue River Railroad Corporation (TRRC), Montana • TRRC filed an application with the Surface Transportation Board

to construct and operate a new rail line in southeastern Montana

• Purpose is to transport low-sulfur, subbituminous coal from mine sites to be developed in Rosebud and Powder River Counties, Montana

• TRRC would construct and BNSF would operate the rail line

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Study Area

Facilities associated with operation of the rail line include: – Rail road and associated infrastructure – access roads – telecommunications towers – railway signs and signals.

Affected environment includes: – primary watersheds crossed by the build

alternatives and – a corridor matching the width of biological,

water, land, cultural and historical resources, and geology and soils used in the EIS

TONGUE RIVER RAILROAD SPUR – DRAFT EIS

Source: Draft EIS, 2015

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Findings - Damage and service disruptions from:

Increased flooding: Changes in precipitation in the Tongue River, Otter Creek, and Rosebud Creek basins could lead to flooding and damage the rail line, wash out ballast, cause scour at water crossings and culverts, place debris in ROWs, and disrupt service along the railway

Landslides and increased soil erosion: Changes in precipitation could affect the likelihood of soil slumping and landslides

Increased frequency of wildfires: Increased temperatures and drier conditions in summer could increase the likelihood of wildfires

Higher extreme temperatures: Could lead to increased risk of rail buckling and worker heat exhaustion

TONGUE RIVER RAILROAD SPUR – DRAFT EIS

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Findings – Affected Environment

Altered landscapes – EIS impacts on vegetation, habitat loss and degradation, wildlife

displacement could be exacerbated by contributing to soil erosion, and increasing stress to migrating species through more intense snow events and higher temps

Water depletion and degradation – Impacts on water quality (degradation and depletion) could be

increased by drought and higher water temperatures further stressing terrestrial and aquatic wildlife and vegetation

Spread of invasive species and noxious weeds – Increased spread of invasive species and noxious weeds could be

exacerbated by warmer winter temperatures, higher summer temperatures, and drier summer conditions

TONGUE RIVER RAILROAD SPUR – DRAFT EIS

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Additional Information Executive Order -- Climate Resilient International

Development https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/09/23/executive-order-climate-resilient-international-development

CEQ Revised Draft Guidance on GHG Emissions and Climate Change in NEPA Reviews https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/docs/nepa_revised_draft_ghg_guidance_searchable.pdf

Contact Information Dana Spindler Michael Savonis (206) 801-2844 (202) 862-1116 Dana.Spindler@icfi.com Michael.Savonis@icfi.com

https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/09/23/executive-order-climate-resilient-international-developmenthttps://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/09/23/executive-order-climate-resilient-international-developmenthttps://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/09/23/executive-order-climate-resilient-international-developmenthttps://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/docs/nepa_revised_draft_ghg_guidance_searchable.pdfhttps://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/docs/nepa_revised_draft_ghg_guidance_searchable.pdfmailto:Dana.Spindler@icfi.commailto:Michael.Savonis@icfi.com

Considering Climate and Environmental Impacts on Infrastructure Projects in the US and Developing CountriesOverviewExecutive Order 13677 --- Climate-Resilient International DevelopmentExecutive Order 13677 --- PolicyAsia Region Field Support – Environmental and Climate ImpactsDawei Seaport and Industrial Zone, Burma, $8.6 BillionEnvironmental and Social ConcernsClimate Change ProjectionsPotential Climate Impacts on the ProjectAdaptation OptionsSong Bung Hydropower Plant in VietnamEnvironmental and Social ConcernsClimate Change ProjectionsPotential Climate Impacts on the ProjectAdaptation OptionsCEQ Guidance, December 2014Tongue River Railroad Corporation (TRRC), MontanaStudy AreaFindings - Damage and service disruptions from:Findings – Affected EnvironmentAdditional InformationSlide Number 22Slide Number 23