CONSENSUS FORECAST - FocusEconomics · FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 3 August 2016 economic uncertainty. The result is largely due to the downside risks to the Eurozone outlook

CONSENSUS FORECAST

EURO AREA 2CALENDAR 16NOTES 18

PUBLICATION DATE 26 July 2016FORECASTS COLLECTED 19 July - 25 July 2016

INFORMATION AVAILABLE Up to and including 25 July 2016 NEXT EDITION 30 August 2016

Eurozone • August 2016

ContributorsARNE POHLMAN Chief Economist

ARMANDO CICCARELLI Head of Data Solutions

RICARD TORNÉ Head of Economic Research

RICARDO ACEVES Senior Economist

ANGELA BOUZANIS Senior Economist

DIRINA MANÇELLARI Senior Economist

DAVID AMPUDIA Economist MASSIMO BASSETTI Economist OLGA COSCODAN EconomistROBERT HILL Economist

TERESA KERSTING Economist CHRISTOPHER MC INNES Economist MARLÈNE RUMP Economist

JEAN-PHILIPPE POURCELOT Economist ANDREA VETRUGNO Economist MIRIAM DOWD Editor

FOCUSECONOMICS Euro area

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 2

August 2016

Euro area

REAL SECTOR | Composite PMI performs better than expected in the face of BrexitRecent data suggest that business activity in the Euro area lost momentum in July. The preliminary Eurozone Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), elaborated by Markit, fell from 53.1 in June to 52.9 in July. The result overshot market analysts’ expectations of a starker fall to a 52.5 reading amid Brexit concerns and marked a one-and-a-half year low.

July’s downturn mainly reflected softer activity in the services sector, while conditions in the manufacturing sector remained broadly stable. Output growth slowed in both sectors, while employment increased at the quickest pace in over five years. Rising energy prices along with a weak euro led to an increase in input costs across the bloc. Meanwhile, business expectations among service providers fell to an over-one-year low amid rising political and

The Eurozone economy showed resilience in Q1 and growth picked up to a one-year high despite external headwinds, yet data for Q2 suggests that the economy has lost some steam: industrial production contracted in May and economic sentiment decreased in June. Most importantly, the UK’s vote to leave the EU has dramatically increased downside risks for the Eurozone economy. The vote will have ramifications for the bloc’s trading patterns, financials and political stability. While some of the economic consequences were immediate—financial markets have experienced heightened volatility—how negotiations between EU and UK officials play out will be key to determining the full economic impact. The first available data since the vote suggest that activity has cooled: the Composite PMI fell in July, yet the indicator still beat market analysts’ bleak post-Brexit expectations, offering a glimmer of hope that the Eurozone economy could prove resilient despite heightened risks.

The brunt of the impact of Brexit is not expected to be felt this year, as negotiations will likely drag out and European rules set a two-year period for negotiating an exit, subject to possible extension. Our panel sees the Eurozone economy expanding 1.5% in 2016, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For next year, our panel sees the economy decelerating slightly to 1.4% growth as the impact from Brexit starts to kick in.

Harmonized inflation was 0.1% in June (May: -0.1% year-on-year). Despite meagre price pressures and growing risks to the Eurozone economy, the European Central Bank took a wait-and-see approach following Brexit and left interest rates unchanged in July. Our panel predicts that inflation will be subdued this year and average 0.3%. For 2017, inflation is expected to rise to 1.3%.

Outlook stable

LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages

Angela BouzanisSenior Economist

Euro area

2012-14 2015-17 2018-20Population (million): 331 334 337GDP (EUR bn): 9,957 10,627 11,547GDP per capita (EUR): 30,043 31,804 34,312GDP growth (%): -0.1 1.5 1.5Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -3.1 -1.9 -1.5Public Debt (% of GDP): 90.8 89.9 86.7Inflation (%): 1.4 0.5 1.6Current Account (% of GDP): 2.0 3.0 2.2



August 2016

economic uncertainty. The result is largely due to the downside risks to the Eurozone outlook in the aftermath of Brexit.

Regarding the two largest Eurozone economies, economic conditions improved in Germany and stabilized in France. Elsewhere in the region, economic momentum weakened. Commenting on the result, Market analysts stated that, “policymakers will be reassured by the resilience of the PMI in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote, but the fragility of the recovery leaves plenty of room for speculation about further stimulus later in the year.”

The European Central Bank (ECB) expects that GDP will expand by 1.6% in 2016 and 1.7% in 2017. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the Euro area economy to expand 1.5% in 2016, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2017, panelists expect the economy to expand 1.4%.

REAL SECTOR | Industrial production contracts in MayThe industrial sector in the common-currency bloc swung to contraction in May, falling a seasonally-adjusted 1.2% over the previous month. The reading notably contrasted the 1.4% increase observed in April and was a more pronounced fall than market analysts’ expectations of a 0.8% drop.

May’s reading reflected contractions in all the main industrial groupings. Energy production recorded the largest decline. Industrial production grew 0.5% in May over the same month last year (April: +2.2% year-on-year).

Among the Euro area economies for which data are available, the largest gains in production were recorded in Lithuania (+3.9% month-on-month), Latvia (+2.4% mom) and Slovenia (+0.6% mom). On the flipside, the largest drops were recorded in the Netherlands (-7.8% mom), Portugal (-4.4% mom) and Greece (-4.3% mom). Regarding the region’s largest economies, output dropped across the board, falling in France (-0.5% mom), Germany (-1.3% mom), Italy (-0.6% mom) and Spain (-0.6% mom).

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see industrial production expanding 1.7% in 2016, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2017, panelists see industrial production growing 1.5%.

REAL SECTOR | Eurozone unemployment rate inches down in MayConditions in the labor market in the common-currency bloc improved in May according to recently released data by Eurostat. The number of unemployed persons fell by 112,000, which followed April’s decrease of 75,000 job seekers. The unemployment rate in May inched down from April’s 10.2% to 10.1%, which represented the lowest rate since July 2011.

Looking at the countries in the region, drops in the unemployment rate were observed in the majority of the countries, with only three countries seeing a rise in the rate. However, notable divergences persist in the labor market among core Eurozone countries and those on the periphery. Greece is by far the economy in the Eurozone with the highest unemployment rate (23.3%, data refer to April), followed by Spain (19.8%) and Cyprus (12.0%).

At the other end of the spectrum, Malta (4.1%), Germany (4.2%) and Austria (6.1%) registered the lowest unemployment rates in the Eurozone in May. Among the remaining major economies, Italy had the highest unemployment rate with 11.5%, followed by France with 9.9%.

Purchasing Managers’ Index

Note: Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) Composite Output. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion in business activity while a value below 50 points to a contraction.Source: Markit.

50

51

52

53

54

55

Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16

Industrial Production | variation in %

Note: Month-on-month var. of seasonally-adjusted industrial production and annual average growth rate in %. Source: Eurostat.

-1.5

0.0

1.5

3.0

-1.5

0.0

1.5

3.0

May-14 Nov-14 May-15 Nov-15 May-16

Month-on-month s.a. (left scale)

Annual average (right scale)

%%

Unemployment | May 2016

Note: Unemployment, % of active population. Data for Greece and Estonia refer to April.Source: Eurostat.

0 10 20 30

MaltaGermany

AustriaLuxembourgNetherlands

EstoniaIreland

LithuaniaSloveniaBelgiumFinland

LatviaFrance

SlovakiaEuro area

ItalyPortugal

CyprusSpain

Greece



August 2016

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the unemployment rate to average 10.1% in 2016, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2017, the panel expects the unemployment rate to average 9.8%.

OUTLOOK | Economic sentiment edges down in JuneEconomic sentiment in the Eurozone fell in June, according to the European Commission (EC). The economic sentiment index (ESI) decreased from 104.6 in May to 104.4. The result undershot the 104.7 reading that market analysts had expected.

Looking at the sectors of the economy, economic sentiment fell to a three-month low in the services sector and a one-year low in retail trade. In addition, consumers were less optimistic in June than May.

At a country level, sentiment deteriorated in France, Italy and Lithuania. However, an increase in sentiment was recorded in Germany, the largest economy in the Eurozone, along with Belgium and Spain.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see private consumption growing 1.7% in 2016, which is unchanged from last month’s projection. For 2017, panelists see consumption expanding 1.3%. Panelists expect investment to grow 2.9% in 2016, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2017, panelists see investment increasing 2.2%.

MONETARY SECTOR | Eurozone price pressures rise in JuneMore complete data released by Eurostat on 15 July confirmed that harmonized inflation came in at 0.1% in June, marking the first positive price pressures since January. The result contrasted the 0.1% annual fall in harmonized consumer prices recorded in May and was in line with the preliminary estimate. According to Eurostat, the main contributors to June’s reading were higher prices for restaurants and cafes as well as for rents and tobacco.

Core inflation rested at May’s 0.8% in June. In addition, annual average inflation was steady at May’s 0.1%. Meanwhile, harmonized consumer prices increased 0.2% in June on a monthly basis, which was below May’s 0.4% rise.

Looking at the countries in the common-currency bloc, 13 of the 19 Eurozone economies showed inflation rates equal to or above the regional average. Belgium (1.8%), Malta (1.0%) and Portugal (0.7%) were the economies with the highest rates. In contrast, Cyprus (-2.0%), Spain (-0.9%) and Slovakia (-0.7%) were the economies that registered the largest annual declines in HICP consumer prices. Among the largest economies in the Eurozone, consumer prices declined annually in Italy, while inflation picked up in France and Germany.

The ECB sees HICP inflation averaging 0.2% in 2016 and picking up to 1.3% in 2017. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect HICP inflation to average 0.3% in 2016, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2017, panelists expect HICP inflation to average 1.3%.

MONETARY SECTOR | ECB awaits data following Brexit, holds ratesIn an environment of heightened uncertainty following the Brexit vote, the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to stay the course and keep the main interest rates unchanged at its 21 July meeting, although the Bank did signal a willingness to ease policy going forward if needed. The refinancing rate, the

Economic Sentiment | June 2016

Note: The Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) is based on surveys addressed to the manufacturing, services, retail trade and construction sectors, as well as to consumers. Values above 100 indicate an above-average economic sentiment, whereas values below 100 indicate a below-average position. Source: European Commission.

80 90 100 110 120

GreeceFinland

SlovakiaAustriaEstoniaFrance

LithuaniaEuro area

ItalySloveniaPortugal

NetherlandsGermany

SpainBelgium

LuxembourgMalta

Cyprus

Inflation | June 2016

Note: Year-on-year var. of harmonized consumer price index (HICP) in %.Source: Eurostat.

-3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0

CyprusSpain

SlovakiaLatvia

LuxembourgItaly

NetherlandsSlovenia

Euro areaIrelandGreece

GermanyFrance

FinlandLithuaniaEstoniaAustria

PortugalMalta

Belgium

%



August 2016

marginal lending rate and the deposit facility rate were kept steady at 0.00%, 0.25% and minus 0.40%, respectively. The ECB also maintained its asset purchase program at EUR 80 billion a month.

In the accompanying press conference, ECB President Mario Draghi stated that risks to the Eurozone’s growth outlook are tilted to the downside due to the outcome of the UK’s referendum and other geopolitical uncertainties. However, Draghi emphasized that the financial markets have shown resilience in the face of heightened uncertainty and that the region’s Central Banks stand ready to provide liquidity if required. In addition, Draghi added that the loose monetary conditions and a solid regulatory framework have contained the shocks. Looking forward, Draghi stated that the ECB will reassess macroeconomic conditions in the Eurozone when more information is available, and kept the door open for further easing by stating that, if needed, the Bank will, “act by using all the instruments available within its mandate.”

Commenting on the decision, Economists at DBS point out:

“Thursday’s remarks reinforce our view that the ECB will be in an assessment mode in the coming months. While the BOE is widely expected to ease policy further, the ECB’s policy moves will be dependent on incoming soft and hard data. Updated staff projections are due in Sept, where we look for GDP estimates to be revised down slightly, while inflation is held steady vis-à-vis June’s update. Sentiments have nonetheless taken a hit, as seen in the sharp fall in July’s Zew and Eurozone consumer confidence indices.”

Within this setting, the Consensus view of almost all of the analysts we surveyed this month expect the ECB to keep the main refinancing rate unchanged at the current record-low of 0.00%. Next year, all but one of our analysts expect the ECB to leave the policy rate unchanged at 0.00%, with a Consensus that the rate will end the year at minus 0.01%.

ECB Refinancing Rate | in %

Note: ECB Refinancing Rate in %.Source: European Central Bank (ECB).

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16

Marginal Lending RateMain Refinancing RateDeposit Rate

%



August 2016

Economic Indicators | 2011 - 2020

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Real Sector Population (million) 330 331 331 332 333 334 335 336 337 337GDP per capita (EUR) 29,702 29,738 29,970 30,421 31,232 31,700 32,480 33,349 34,286 35,301GDP (EUR bn) 9,799 9,834 9,932 10,106 10,407 10,593 10,882 11,199 11,539 11,904Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) 2.7 0.4 1.0 1.8 3.0 1.8 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.2Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 1.6 -0.8 -0.3 0.9 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5Domestic Demand (annual variation in %) 0.7 -2.4 -0.7 0.9 1.8 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.3Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 0.0 -1.2 -0.6 0.8 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3Government Consumption (annual var. in %) -0.1 -0.2 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) 1.6 -3.3 -2.6 1.3 2.9 2.9 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6Exports (G&S, annual variation in %) 6.5 2.6 2.1 4.1 5.3 2.9 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7Imports (G&S, annual variation in %) 4.3 -1.0 1.3 4.5 6.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.7Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 3.5 -2.3 -0.7 0.9 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 10.2 11.4 12.0 11.6 10.9 10.1 9.8 9.4 9.1 8.8Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -4.2 -3.7 -3.0 -2.6 -2.1 -1.9 -1.7 -1.6 -1.5 -1.4Public Debt (% of GDP) 86.0 89.3 91.1 92.0 90.7 90.0 89.1 88.1 86.7 85.3Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M3 in %) 2.2 3.0 0.5 4.9 5.0 - - - - -Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, eop) 2.8 2.2 0.9 -0.2 0.2 - - - - -Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, aop) 2.7 2.5 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.7Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %, aop) 5.7 2.8 -0.2 -1.5 -2.7 - - - - -ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 1.00 0.75 0.25 0.05 0.05 0.00 -0.01 0.24 0.61 0.973-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) 1.36 0.19 0.29 0.08 -0.13 -0.31 -0.25 0.12 0.61 1.0910-Yr Bond Yield (weighted Euro avg. %, eop) 4.09 2.10 3.31 1.45 1.19 0.78 1.09 1.54 2.03 2.51Stock Market (Eurostoxx 50, var. in %) -16.4 14.4 19.1 1.7 5.5 - - - - -Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.30 1.32 1.38 1.21 1.09 1.09 1.12 1.15 1.19 1.23Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, aop) 1.39 1.29 1.33 1.33 1.11 1.11 1.10 1.13 1.17 1.21External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 0.4 1.3 2.2 2.4 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.5 2.2 1.8Current Account Balance (EUR bn) 39.9 128.5 215 251 330 321 307 277 249 220Trade Balance (EUR bn) 36.3 125.5 211 248 354 - - - - -Foreign Direct Investment (EUR bn) 248 197 203 105 - - - - - - Quarterly Data Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.5Economic Growth (GDP, s.a. qoq var. in %) 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4Private Consumption (s.a. qoq var. in %) 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3Government Consumption (s.a. qoq var. in %) 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3Fixed Investment (s.a. qoq variation in %) 0.5 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6Exports (G&S, s.a. qoq variation in %) 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9Imports (G&S, s.a. qoq variation in %) 1.3 1.4 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 2.0 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 10.7 10.5 10.3 10.1 10.0 10.0 9.9 9.9 9.7 9.6Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, aop) 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.4 0.7 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.4ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.013-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) -0.04 -0.13 -0.24 -0.29 -0.30 -0.31 -0.31 -0.30 -0.28 -0.2510-Yr Bond Yield (weighted Euro avg. %, eop) 1.48 1.19 0.93 0.88 0.83 0.78 0.81 0.88 0.95 1.09Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.12 1.09 1.14 1.11 1.11 1.09 1.09 1.10 1.10 1.12Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, aop) 1.11 1.10 1.10 1.13 1.11 1.10 1.09 1.09 1.10 1.11Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 3.7 3.9 2.3 3.1 3.1 2.7 2.8 3.1 2.8 2.2Current Account Balance (EUR bn) 97.3 106.3 60.6 80.5 83.6 73.9 75.1 84.4 77.7 63.2 Monthly Data Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 2.1 1.7 -0.1 3.5 0.9 0.2 2.2 0.5 - -Industrial Production (s.a. mom var. in %) 0.6 -0.3 -0.5 2.4 -1.3 -0.8 1.4 -1.2 - -Unemployment (% of active population) 10.6 10.5 10.4 10.4 10.3 10.2 10.2 10.1 - -Econ. Sent. Indicator (100-point threshold) 106.0 106.0 106.6 105.1 103.9 103.0 104.0 104.6 104.4 -Markit Composite PMI (50-threshold) 53.9 54.2 54.3 53.6 53.0 53.1 53.0 53.1 53.1 52.9Inflation (HICP, mom variation in %) 0.2 -0.2 0.0 -1.5 0.2 1.2 0.0 0.4 0.2 -Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 -Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.10 1.06 1.09 1.08 1.09 1.14 1.15 1.11 1.11 -



August 2016

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product

Real GDP growth in %

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2020 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from Eurostat. Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.1 GDP, real annual variation in %. 2 Quarterly GDP (seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.3 GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2017 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2016 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in

%. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

Individual Forecasts 2016 2017Allianz 1.5 1.6Banco BPI 1.5 1.6Bankia 1.5 1.2BBVA Research 1.6 1.5Berenberg 1.5 1.6Berliner Sparkasse 1.6 1.3BMI Research 1.6 1.4BNP Paribas 1.4 0.9Citigroup Global Mkts 1.5 1.1Coe-Rexecode 1.7 1.5Commerzbank 1.5 1.5Credit Agricole 1.5 1.4Credit Suisse 1.5 1.0Danske Bank 1.2 0.7DBS Bank 1.7 1.8DekaBank 1.6 1.2Deutsche Bank 1.6 1.1DIW Berlin 1.6 1.7DNB 1.4 1.3DZ Bank 1.3 1.0EIU 1.6 1.3Emirates NBD 1.5 1.7Goldman Sachs 1.3 1.2Gruppo MPS 1.4 1.1Ifo Institut 1.7 1.7ING 1.5 1.0Instituto Flores de Lemus 1.5 1.4Intesa Sanpaolo 1.7 1.4JPMorgan 1.5 1.3Julius Baer 1.7 1.3KBC 1.4 1.4Kiel Institute 1.7 1.9La Caixa 1.4 1.3Lloyds TSB 1.5 1.8Nomura 1.4 1.2Nordea 1.3 1.4Novo Banco 1.5 1.7OFCE 1.8 1.7OP Financial Group 1.5 1.7Oxford Economics 1.7 1.5Piraeus Bank 1.5 -Raiffeisen Research 1.6 1.5Sal. Oppenheim 1.5 1.5Scotiabank 1.5 1.6SEB 1.7 1.7Société Générale 1.6 1.3Standard Chartered 1.2 1.2Toronto-Dominion Bank 1.5 1.5UBS 1.5 1.3Unicredit 1.6 1.0SummaryMinimum 1.2 0.7Maximum 1.8 1.9Median 1.5 1.4Consensus 1.5 1.4History30 days ago 1.5 1.560 days ago 1.5 1.690 days ago 1.5 1.6Additional ForecastsEuropean Commission (May 2016) 1.6 1.8ECB (June 2016) 1.6 1.7IMF (July 2016) 1.6 1.4

2 | Real GDP | Q1 13-Q4 17 | var. in %

4 | GDP 2017 | evolution of forecasts

1 | Real GDP | 2000-2020 | var. in %

-6

-3

0

3

6

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Euro areaG7World -2

-1

0

1

2

3

Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Q1 17

Euro area

G7

-1

0

1

2

3

Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun

MaximumConsensusMinimum

3 | GDP 2016 | evolution of forecasts

-1

0

1

2

3



0%

20%

40%

60%

< 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 > 2.2

5 | GDP 2016 | Panelist Distribution



August 2016

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

9 | Investment | evol. of forecasts

2.1

2.4

2.7

3.0


2016 2017

8 | Investment | variation in %

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Euro areaG7

7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.7


2016 2017

6 | Consumption | variation in %

-2

0

2

4

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Euro area

G7

Consumption and Investment

Individual Forecasts 2016 2017 2016 2017Allianz 1.6 1.5 3.0 2.7Banco BPI - - - -Bankia - - - -BBVA Research 1.7 1.4 3.0 2.7Berenberg 1.4 1.4 2.2 2.2Berliner Sparkasse 1.5 1.0 3.8 2.2BMI Research 1.7 1.5 2.9 2.1BNP Paribas 1.5 1.0 2.6 0.9Citigroup Global Mkts 1.6 1.3 2.7 1.5Coe-Rexecode 1.7 1.4 3.2 2.4Commerzbank 1.8 1.9 4.2 2.7Credit Agricole 1.7 1.5 2.8 2.2Credit Suisse 1.7 1.4 2.8 0.8Danske Bank 1.5 0.9 1.7 -0.7DBS Bank 1.3 1.5 3.3 2.8DekaBank 1.8 1.5 2.6 1.9Deutsche Bank 1.8 1.3 2.7 1.9DIW Berlin - - - -DNB 1.2 1.3 2.0 1.9DZ Bank 1.6 1.3 2.1 0.9EIU - - - -Emirates NBD - - - -Goldman Sachs - - - -Gruppo MPS - - - -Ifo Institut 1.7 1.6 2.9 3.0ING - - - -Instituto Flores de Lemus 1.6 1.2 2.8 1.6Intesa Sanpaolo 1.8 1.4 3.0 2.6JPMorgan 1.6 1.5 2.9 2.1Julius Baer - - - -KBC - - - -Kiel Institute 1.7 1.7 3.1 3.2La Caixa - - - -Lloyds TSB 1.7 1.7 2.8 3.2Nomura 1.6 1.4 2.7 1.6Nordea - - - -Novo Banco 1.9 1.8 2.9 3.6OFCE 1.9 1.6 3.2 2.9OP Financial Group - - - -Oxford Economics 1.8 1.5 3.3 2.8Piraeus Bank - - - -Raiffeisen Research 1.7 1.7 3.1 3.1Sal. Oppenheim 1.7 1.3 2.9 2.3Scotiabank - - - -SEB 1.8 1.8 3.1 3.0Société Générale 1.7 1.5 2.5 2.0Standard Chartered - - - -Toronto-Dominion Bank - - - -UBS 1.8 1.7 2.7 1.8Unicredit - - - -SummaryMinimum 1.2 0.9 1.7 -0.7Maximum 1.9 1.9 4.2 3.6Median 1.7 1.5 2.9 2.2Consensus 1.7 1.4 2.9 2.2History30 days ago 1.7 1.5 3.0 2.660 days ago 1.6 1.5 2.9 2.690 days ago 1.6 1.5 2.8 2.7

Consumption Investment variation in % variation in %

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2020 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from Eurostat. Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.6 Private consumption, annual variation in %. 7 Private consumption, evolution of 2016 and 2017 forecasts during the last 18 months.8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.9 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2016 and 2017 forecasts during the last 18 months.



August 2016


3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0


2016 2017

13 | Imports | evol. of forecasts

-20

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Euro area

G7

12 | Imports | variation in %

-20

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Euro area

G7

10 | Exports | variation in %

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0


2016 2017

11 | Exports | evolution of fcst

Exports and Imports

Individual Forecasts 2016 2017 2016 2017Allianz 3.0 4.0 4.5 4.6Banco BPI - - - -Bankia - - - -BBVA Research 2.9 3.0 4.1 3.4Berenberg - - - -Berliner Sparkasse 2.2 3.0 3.0 3.1BMI Research 3.2 2.8 5.1 3.9BNP Paribas - - - -Citigroup Global Mkts 2.4 2.5 3.7 2.9Coe-Rexecode 2.9 3.7 4.4 4.3Commerzbank - - - -Credit Agricole 3.1 4.5 4.4 4.7Credit Suisse 3.3 4.9 4.7 5.4Danske Bank 2.7 3.2 4.0 3.3DBS Bank 1.7 1.0 2.3 0.5DekaBank 2.9 3.2 4.5 4.4Deutsche Bank 3.1 3.5 4.1 4.1DIW Berlin - - - -DNB 3.4 3.1 3.5 3.4DZ Bank 2.8 3.5 4.3 4.2EIU - - - -Emirates NBD - - - -Goldman Sachs - - - -Gruppo MPS - - - -Ifo Institut 2.8 4.3 4.3 5.3ING - - - -Instituto Flores de Lemus 2.6 3.9 3.6 3.9Intesa Sanpaolo 2.7 3.2 4.2 4.8JPMorgan 2.2 2.1 3.4 2.5Julius Baer - - - -KBC - - - -Kiel Institute 2.8 4.3 4.0 4.8La Caixa - - - -Lloyds TSB 2.4 3.6 3.7 3.9Nomura 2.5 3.2 4.0 3.8Nordea - - - -Novo Banco 3.2 4.3 4.6 5.0OFCE 3.1 3.6 3.9 3.9OP Financial Group - - - -Oxford Economics - - - -Piraeus Bank - - - -Raiffeisen Research 3.6 4.4 5.0 5.4Sal. Oppenheim 3.1 4.4 4.5 4.8Scotiabank - - - -SEB 4.3 4.0 5.1 4.6Société Générale 2.3 2.8 3.6 3.2Standard Chartered - - - -Toronto-Dominion Bank - - - -UBS 3.2 4.5 4.6 5.2Unicredit - - - -SummaryMinimum 1.7 1.0 2.3 0.5Maximum 4.3 4.9 5.1 5.4Median 2.9 3.5 4.2 4.2Consensus 2.9 3.5 4.1 4.0History30 days ago 3.0 3.7 4.1 4.160 days ago 3.0 3.8 4.1 4.290 days ago 3.1 4.0 4.2 4.4

Exports Imports variation in % variation in %

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2020 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from Eurostat. Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 10 Real exports of goods and services, annual variation in %. 11 Exports, evolution of 2016 and 2017 forecasts during the last 18 months.12 Real imports of goods and services, annual variation in %. 13 Imports, evolution of 2016 and 2017 forecasts during the last 18 months.



August 2016


9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0


2016 2017

17 | Unemployment | evol. of forecasts

4

6

8

10

12

14

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Euro area

G7

16 | Unemployment | % of active pop.

-20

-10

0

10

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Euro area

G7

14 | Industry | variation in %

1.4

1.9

2.4

2.9


2016 2017

15 | Industry | evolution of fcst

Industry and Unemployment

Individual Forecasts 2016 2017 2016 2017Allianz 2.0 2.2 10.0 9.6Banco BPI - - - -Bankia - - - -BBVA Research - - 10.1 9.8Berenberg 1.7 1.7 10.1 9.6Berliner Sparkasse 0.9 0.6 10.1 9.9BMI Research - - 10.7 10.5BNP Paribas - - 10.2 9.8Citigroup Global Mkts 1.3 0.5 10.0 9.6Coe-Rexecode - - 10.1 9.7Commerzbank - - 10.1 9.7Credit Agricole - - - -Credit Suisse 2.0 2.1 - -Danske Bank - - 10.3 10.3DBS Bank - - 10.5 10.2DekaBank - - 10.1 9.8Deutsche Bank - - 10.4 -DIW Berlin - - 10.1 9.6DNB - - 9.9 9.6DZ Bank - - 10.3 10.1EIU - - 10.0 9.5Emirates NBD - - - -Goldman Sachs - - - -Gruppo MPS - - - -Ifo Institut - - 10.3 10.0ING - - - -Instituto Flores de Lemus 1.7 1.2 - -Intesa Sanpaolo 2.0 1.4 10.1 9.5JPMorgan 1.8 2.0 10.1 9.6Julius Baer - - - -KBC - - - -Kiel Institute - - 10.1 9.6La Caixa - - 10.1 9.7Lloyds TSB - - 9.9 9.6Nomura - - 10.2 9.7Nordea - - - -Novo Banco - - 10.4 10.0OFCE - - 9.9 9.4OP Financial Group - - 10.3 10.0Oxford Economics 1.7 1.5 10.0 9.5Piraeus Bank - - 9.9 -Raiffeisen Research 2.4 1.9 10.1 9.3Sal. Oppenheim - - - -Scotiabank - - - -SEB - - 10.1 9.6Société Générale - - 10.1 9.6Standard Chartered - - - -Toronto-Dominion Bank - - 10.2 9.9UBS 1.3 1.7 10.4 10.0Unicredit - - - -SummaryMinimum 0.9 0.5 9.9 9.3Maximum 2.4 2.2 10.7 10.5Median 1.7 1.7 10.1 9.7Consensus 1.7 1.5 10.1 9.8History30 days ago 1.8 1.8 10.2 9.760 days ago 1.9 1.9 10.2 9.890 days ago 1.9 1.9 10.2 9.8

Industry Unemployment variation in % % of active pop.

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2020 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from Eurostat. Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.14 Industrial production, annual variation in %. 15 Industrial production, evolution of 2016 and 2017 forecasts during the last 18 months. 16 Unemployment, % of active population. 17 Unemployment, evolution of 2016 and 2017 forecasts during the last 18 months.



August 2016


88

90

92

94

96


2016 2017

21 | Public Debt | evolution of fcst

60

80

100

120

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Euro area

G7

20 | Public Debt | % of GDP

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Euro area

G7

18 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP

-2.2

-2.0

-1.8

-1.6

-1.4


2016 2017

19 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst

Fiscal Balance and Public Debt

Individual Forecasts 2016 2017 2016 2017Allianz -1.8 -1.6 - -Banco BPI - - - -Bankia - - - -BBVA Research -2.0 -1.9 90.5 89.1Berenberg -2.0 -1.8 89.3 87.6Berliner Sparkasse -2.2 -1.9 - -BMI Research -2.0 -2.0 - -BNP Paribas -2.0 -1.8 89.8 88.9Citigroup Global Mkts -1.9 -1.5 89.9 88.8Coe-Rexecode -2.1 -1.9 - -Commerzbank - - - -Credit Agricole -2.0 -1.7 90.5 89.6Credit Suisse -1.8 -1.6 - -Danske Bank -2.0 -1.8 90.2 89.8DBS Bank - - - -DekaBank -1.9 -1.5 - -Deutsche Bank -2.0 -1.9 - -DIW Berlin - - - -DNB - - - -DZ Bank -2.1 -1.8 89.3 89.0EIU -1.9 -1.7 - -Emirates NBD -2.0 -1.6 - -Goldman Sachs -1.7 -1.4 - -Gruppo MPS - - - -Ifo Institut -2.0 -1.8 - -ING -2.0 -1.7 - -Instituto Flores de Lemus - - - -Intesa Sanpaolo - - - -JPMorgan -1.8 -1.7 - -Julius Baer - - - -KBC - - - -Kiel Institute -2.1 -1.9 - -La Caixa - - - -Lloyds TSB - - - -Nomura -2.0 -1.9 - -Nordea -1.9 -1.6 - -Novo Banco -1.9 -1.6 - -OFCE -1.7 -1.4 - -OP Financial Group -1.8 -1.5 - -Oxford Economics -1.9 -1.5 89.9 88.7Piraeus Bank - - - -Raiffeisen Research -1.7 -1.2 90.5 89.0Sal. Oppenheim - - - -Scotiabank - - - -SEB -1.8 -1.5 90.1 89.9Société Générale -1.9 -1.8 89.9 89.2Standard Chartered - - - -Toronto-Dominion Bank - - - -UBS -2.0 -1.7 - -Unicredit -2.0 -2.1 - -SummaryMinimum -2.2 -2.1 89.3 87.6Maximum -1.7 -1.2 90.5 89.9Median -2.0 -1.7 89.9 89.0Consensus -1.9 -1.7 90.0 89.1History30 days ago -1.9 -1.7 90.0 88.960 days ago -1.9 -1.7 90.1 89.090 days ago -1.9 -1.7 90.7 89.6

Fiscal Balance Public Debt % of GDP % of GDP

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2020 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from Eurostat. Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.18 Fiscal balance as % of GDP. 19 Fiscal balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2016 and 2017 forecasts during the last 18 months. 20 Public debt as % of GDP. 21 Public debt as % of GDP, evolution of 2016 and 2017 forecasts during the last 18 months.



August 2016

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

< -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 > 0.6

Monetary Sector | Inflation

22 | Inflation | 2000 - 2020 | in %

24 | Inflation 2016 | evolution of fcst

23 | Inflation | Q1 13-Q4 17 | in %

25 | Inflation 2017 | evolution of fcst

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2020 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from Eurostat. Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.22 Inflation, annual average variation of harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) in %.23 Inflation, annual variation of quarterly average harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP)

in %. 24 Inflation, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.25 Inflation, evolution of 2017 forecasts during the last 18 months.26 Inflation, panelist distribution of 2016 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval

in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

Individual Forecasts 2016 2017Allianz 0.3 1.6Banco BPI 0.3 1.5Bankia 0.3 1.4BBVA Research 0.2 1.4Berenberg 0.3 1.6Berliner Sparkasse 0.2 1.4BMI Research 0.5 1.3BNP Paribas 0.1 1.3Citigroup Global Mkts 0.3 1.2Coe-Rexecode 0.2 1.2Commerzbank 0.3 1.3Credit Agricole 0.2 1.2Credit Suisse 0.3 1.5Danske Bank 0.3 1.2DBS Bank 0.2 0.8DekaBank 0.3 1.3Deutsche Bank 0.2 1.2DIW Berlin 0.4 1.3DNB - -DZ Bank 0.0 1.2EIU 0.1 1.2Emirates NBD 0.9 1.5Goldman Sachs 0.0 0.9Gruppo MPS 0.2 0.8Ifo Institut 0.1 1.4ING 0.3 1.0Instituto Flores de Lemus 0.2 1.3Intesa Sanpaolo 0.3 1.3JPMorgan 0.3 1.3Julius Baer 0.3 1.1KBC 0.3 1.6Kiel Institute 0.2 1.3La Caixa 0.3 1.5Lloyds TSB 0.3 1.5Nomura 0.3 1.3Nordea 0.3 1.4Novo Banco 0.4 1.1OFCE 0.1 1.5OP Financial Group 0.5 1.5Oxford Economics 0.3 1.6Piraeus Bank 0.2 -Raiffeisen Research 0.3 1.5Sal. Oppenheim 0.1 1.3Scotiabank - -SEB 0.2 1.1Société Générale 0.4 1.5Standard Chartered 0.4 1.9Toronto-Dominion Bank 0.2 1.4UBS 0.3 1.8Unicredit 0.2 1.2SummaryMinimum 0.0 0.8Maximum 0.9 1.9Median 0.3 1.3Consensus 0.3 1.3History30 days ago 0.3 1.460 days ago 0.2 1.490 days ago 0.3 1.4Additional ForecastsEuropean Commission (May 2016) 0.2 1.4ECB (June 2016) 0.2 1.3IMF (Apr. 2016) 1.0 1.7

26 | Inflation 2016 | Panelist Distribution

Inflation | annual variation of consumer price index in %

-1

0

1

2

3



-2

0

2

4

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Euro area

G7

0

1

2

3



-1

0

1

2

Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Q1 17

Euro area

G7



August 2016

Monetary Sector | Interest Rates

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0


2016 2017

30 | Benchmark Rate | evolution of fcst

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Euro areaUnited StatesJapan

29 | Benchmark Rate | in %

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Euro areaUnited StatesJapan

27 | Policy Rate | in %

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6


2016 2017

28 | Policy Rate | evolution of fcst

ECB Refinancing Rate and 3-Month EURIBOR

Individual Forecasts 2016 2017 2016 2017Allianz - - -0.30 0.00Banco BPI 0.00 0.00 -0.35 -0.40Bankia 0.00 0.00 -0.38 -0.30BBVA Research 0.00 0.00 -0.27 -0.08Berenberg 0.00 0.00 - -Berliner Sparkasse - - - -BMI Research 0.00 0.00 - -BNP Paribas 0.00 0.00 -0.30 -0.30Citigroup Global Mkts -0.10 -0.25 - -Coe-Rexecode 0.00 0.00 -0.30 -0.10Commerzbank 0.00 - -0.35 -Credit Agricole 0.00 0.00 -0.25 -0.25Credit Suisse 0.00 0.00 - -Danske Bank 0.00 - -0.30 -DBS Bank 0.00 - - -DekaBank 0.00 0.00 -0.35 -0.35Deutsche Bank 0.00 - -0.35 -DIW Berlin - - - -DNB 0.00 0.00 -0.30 -0.30DZ Bank - - - -EIU - - - -Emirates NBD 0.00 - - -Goldman Sachs - - - -Gruppo MPS 0.00 0.00 -0.40 -0.30Ifo Institut - - - -ING 0.00 0.00 -0.28 -0.25Instituto Flores de Lemus - - - -Intesa Sanpaolo 0.00 0.00 -0.33 -0.33JPMorgan 0.00 0.00 - -Julius Baer 0.00 0.00 - -KBC 0.00 0.00 - -Kiel Institute 0.00 0.00 - -La Caixa 0.00 0.00 -0.26 0.01Lloyds TSB 0.00 0.00 -0.30 -0.30Nomura 0.00 0.00 -0.26 -0.26Nordea - - -0.35 -0.35Novo Banco 0.00 0.00 -0.28 -0.26OFCE 0.00 0.00 - -OP Financial Group - - - -Oxford Economics - - -0.28 -0.23Piraeus Bank - - - -Raiffeisen Research 0.00 0.00 -0.30 -0.25Sal. Oppenheim 0.00 0.00 -0.25 -0.25Scotiabank 0.00 0.00 - -SEB 0.00 0.00 - -Société Générale 0.00 0.00 - -Standard Chartered 0.00 - -0.35 -Toronto-Dominion Bank - - - -UBS 0.00 0.00 -0.30 -0.30Unicredit 0.00 0.00 -0.35 -0.35SummaryMinimum -0.10 -0.25 -0.40 -0.40Maximum 0.00 0.00 -0.25 0.01Median 0.00 0.00 -0.30 -0.28Consensus 0.00 -0.01 -0.31 -0.25History30 days ago 0.00 0.00 -0.28 -0.2260 days ago 0.00 0.01 -0.25 -0.1690 days ago -0.02 -0.02 -0.27 -0.19

Refinancing Rate 3-Month EURIBOR in % in %

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2020. All monetary sector data are from the European Central Bank (ECB), the Federal Reserve Board (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.27 Refinancing rate in % (eop). 28 Refinancing rate, evolution of 2016 and 2017 forecasts during the last 18 months.29 3-month EURIBOR in % (eop). 30 3-month EURIBOR, evolution of 2016 and 2017 forecasts during the last 18 months.



August 2016

0%

20%

40%

60%

< 0.90 0.95 1.00 1.05 1.10 1.15 1.20 1.25 > 1.25

Monetary Sector | Exchange rate

31 | Exchange Rate | USD per EUR

33 | USD per EUR 2016 | evol. of fcst

32 | Exchange Rate | USD per EUR

34 | USD per EUR 2017 | evol. of fcst

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2020 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from European Central Bank (ECB). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.31 Exchange rate, USD per EUR (eop).32 Quarterly exchange rate, USD per EUR (eop).33 Exchange rate, evolution of 2016 forecast during the last 18 months.34 Exchange rate, evolution of 2017 forecast during the last 18 months.35 Exchange rate, panelist distribution of 2016 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast

interval in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

Individual Forecasts 2016 2017Allianz 1.10 1.15Banco BPI 1.11 1.12Bankia 1.02 1.13BBVA Research 1.09 1.14Berenberg 1.10 -Berliner Sparkasse - -BMI Research 1.08 1.12BNP Paribas 1.10 1.05Citigroup Global Mkts 1.13 1.16Coe-Rexecode 1.15 1.20Commerzbank 1.08 -Credit Agricole 1.10 1.09Credit Suisse - -Danske Bank 1.10 -DBS Bank 1.10 -DekaBank 1.07 1.01Deutsche Bank 1.05 -DIW Berlin - -DNB 1.05 1.10DZ Bank - -EIU 1.08 1.16Emirates NBD 1.05 -Goldman Sachs - -Gruppo MPS - -Ifo Institut - -ING 1.10 1.20Instituto Flores de Lemus - -Intesa Sanpaolo 1.10 1.17JPMorgan 1.15 -Julius Baer 1.09 1.13KBC 1.08 -Kiel Institute 1.13 1.13La Caixa 1.08 1.08Lloyds TSB 1.12 1.18Nomura 1.05 1.03Nordea 1.10 1.10Novo Banco 1.10 1.12OFCE 1.08 1.05OP Financial Group - -Oxford Economics 1.08 1.05Piraeus Bank - -Raiffeisen Research 1.05 1.02Sal. Oppenheim - -Scotiabank 1.05 1.12SEB 1.08 1.12Société Générale - -Standard Chartered 1.03 -Toronto-Dominion Bank - -UBS 1.16 1.20Unicredit 1.12 1.15SummaryMinimum 1.02 1.01Maximum 1.16 1.20Median 1.09 1.12Consensus 1.09 1.12History30 days ago 1.10 1.1260 days ago 1.10 1.1390 days ago 1.10 1.12

35 | USD per EUR 2016 | Panelist Distribution

Exchange Rate | USD per EUR

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4



0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4



1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Q1 17



August 2016

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

< 2.1 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.6 3.9 4.2 > 4.2

External Sector | Current Account Balance

36 | Current Account | % of GDP

38 | Current Account 2016 | evol. of fcst

37 | Curr Account | Q1 13-Q4 17 | % of GDP

39 | Current Account 2017 | evol. of fcst

Individual Forecasts 2016 2017Allianz 2.8 2.5Banco BPI - -Bankia - -BBVA Research 3.2 3.0Berenberg 3.1 2.9Berliner Sparkasse 3.3 3.4BMI Research - -BNP Paribas 2.9 2.7Citigroup Global Mkts 3.5 3.1Coe-Rexecode 3.2 2.7Commerzbank 2.6 2.6Credit Agricole 3.5 3.5Credit Suisse - -Danske Bank - -DBS Bank 3.3 3.4DekaBank 3.3 3.1Deutsche Bank 2.6 2.0DIW Berlin - -DNB - -DZ Bank 3.1 2.7EIU - -Emirates NBD 2.7 2.6Goldman Sachs 3.0 2.8Gruppo MPS - -Ifo Institut - -ING - -Instituto Flores de Lemus - -Intesa Sanpaolo 2.8 1.9JPMorgan - -Julius Baer - -KBC - -Kiel Institute 3.3 3.2La Caixa - -Lloyds TSB 3.3 3.2Nomura 2.7 2.5Nordea - -Novo Banco 3.3 3.2OFCE - -OP Financial Group 3.0 2.8Oxford Economics 2.9 2.7Piraeus Bank - -Raiffeisen Research 3.0 2.9Sal. Oppenheim - -Scotiabank 2.8 2.5SEB - -Société Générale 2.5 2.2Standard Chartered 2.9 2.7Toronto-Dominion Bank - -UBS 3.1 2.9Unicredit 3.1 3.3SummaryMinimum 2.5 1.9Maximum 3.5 3.5Median 3.0 2.8Consensus 3.0 2.8History30 days ago 3.0 2.860 days ago 3.1 2.990 days ago 3.0 2.8

40 | Current Account 2016 | Panelist Distribution

Current Account Balance | % of GDP

1

2

3

4



-4

-2

0

2

4

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Euro area

G7

0

1

2

3

4



1

2

3

4

Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Q1 17

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2020 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from Eurostat. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.36 Current account balance as % of GDP.37 4-quarter moving average of current account balance as % of GDP.38 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.39 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2017 forecasts during the last 18 months.40 Current account balance as % of GDP, panelist distribution of 2016 forecasts. Concentration

of panelists in forecast interval in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

FOCUSECONOMICS


August 2016

Economic Release Calendar

Date Country Event26 July United States July Consumer Confidence26 July United States May S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index27 July France July Consumer Confidence27 July Germany July Consumer Confidence27 July United Kingdom Q2 2016 National Accounts (*)27 July United States Central Bank Meeting 28 July Euro area July Economic Sentiment28 July Germany July Consumer Prices (*)28 July Italy July Consumer Confidence28 July Italy July Business Confidence29 July Canada May Monthly GDP29 July Euro area June Unemployment29 July Euro area July Consumer Prices (*)29 July France July Consumer Prices (*)29 July France Q2 2016 National Accounts (*)29 July Japan Central Bank Meeting29 July Japan June Consumer Prices29 July Japan June Industrial Production29 July Switzerland July KOF Indicator29 July United States Q2 2016 National Accounts (first estimate)30 July United Kingdom June Nationwide House Price Index (**)30 July United Kingdom June GfK NOP Consumer Confidence (**)31 July Italy July Consumer Prices (*)1 August Italy July Markit/ADACI Manufacturing PMI1 August United Kingdom July Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI1 August United States July ISM Manufacturing2 August Japan July Consumer Confidence2 August Switzerland June Retail Sales4 August Switzerland Q3 2016 Consumer Confidence4 August United Kingdom Central Bank Meeting5 August Canada July Ivey PMI5 August Italy June Industrial Production5 August United States July Unemployment8 August Germany June Industrial Production8 August Switzerland July Consumer Prices9 August Germany June Merchandise Trade9 August United Kingdom June Industrial Production10 August France June Industrial Production10 August Japan June Machinery Orders11 August Canada July Housing Starts11 August Canada July Teranet House Price Index11 August France July Consumer Prices11 August Italy July Consumer Prices 12 August Euro area June Industrial Production

(*) Preliminary estimate. (**) Approximate date.

Calendar

FOCUSECONOMICS


August 2016

Economic Release Calendar

Date Country Event12 August Euro area Q2 2016 National Accounts (*)12 August Germany Q2 2016 National Accounts (*)12 August United States July Retail Sales14 August Italy Q2 2016 National Accounts (*)15 August Germany August Business Confidence (**)15 August Japan Q2 2016 National Accounts (*)16 August United Kingdom July Consumer Prices16 August United States July Consumer Prices17 August United Kingdom July Unemployment18 August Euro area July Consumer Prices18 August Japan July Merchandise Trade19 August Canada July Consumer Prices24 August Euro area August Markit Composite PMI (*)24 August France August Markit Composite PMI (*)24 August Germany Q2 2016 National Accounts24 August Germany August Markit Composite PMI (*)24 August Japan August Nikkei Manufacturing PMI25 August France August Business Confidence25 August Germany August Consumer Confidence (**)26 August France Q2 2016 National Accounts 26 August Japan July Consumer Prices26 August United Kingdom Q2 2016 National Accounts26 August United States Q2 2016 National Accounts (second estimate)28 August Italy August Consumer Confidence28 August Italy August Business Confidence

(*) Preliminary estimate. (**) Approximate date.

FOCUSECONOMICS


August 2016

Notes and Statements

PUBLICATION NOTE

Consensus forecasts are mean averages of projections of economic forecasters surveyed by FocusEconomics for our monthly publication. Quarterly averages may not correspond to the annual figures due to different forecast panels.

The GDP-weighted averages for the world refer to economies surveyed by FocusEconomics on a monthly basis, and include the following countries and regions, comprising more than 90% of total global output:

G7 (Group of Seven, 7 countries): Canada, Japan, United Kingdom and United States; France, Germany and Italy are also Euro area countries.BRIC (4 countries): Brazil, Russia, India, and China. The term was coined by Goldman Sachs in November 2001 and has since been widely adopted in investment and finance.Euro area (19 countries): Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain.Nordic Economies (5 countries): Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Iceland. Finland is also a Euro area member.Additional Countries: Switzerland.

Weights are based on market exchange rates and reflect the latest forecasts on GDP growth, inflation and exchange rates.

COPYRIGHT NOTE

© Copyright 2016 FocusEconomics S.L.U. Duplication, reproduction, transmission, publication or redistribution in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, or otherwise without prior written consent of FocusEconomics S.L.U. is strictly prohibited. Please cite source when quoting. All rights reserved under International Copyright Conventions.

The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast – Major Economies is a monthly publication of FocusEconomics. Communications to the Editor or FocusEconomics in general should be addressed as follows:

FocusEconomics S.L.U.Gran Via 657E-08010 BarcelonaSpaintel: +34 932 651 040fax: +34 932 650 804e-mail: [email protected] web: http://www.focus-economics.com

DISCLOSURE STATEMENT

The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast – Major Economies (“Forecast”) is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable. FocusEconomics and the participating panelists (“Information Providers”) do not guarantee that the information supplied in the Forecast is accurate, complete or timely. The Information Providers do not make any warranties with regard to the results obtained from the Forecast. The Information Providers are not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for any injuries or damages resulting from the use of this information, including incidental and consequential damages. Recipients should not regard the Forecast as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgement. The recommendations made in the Forecast may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. The Forecast has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation of any transaction or an offer to enter into any transaction. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice and the Information Providers are under no obligation to update the information contained herein.

Notes

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ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENTS

KEY INDICATORS INCLUDE

REAL SECTOR GDP per capita Economic Growth Consumption Investment Industrial Production Unemployment Rate Fiscal Balance Public Debt

EXTERNAL SECTORCurrent Account Trade BalanceExportsImportsInternational ReservesExternal Debt

MONETARY & FINANCIAL SECTORMoneyInflation Rate Policy Interest Rate Exchange Rate

127 COUNTRIES IN 12 REGIONS

Major Economies

Euro Area

Sub-Saharan Africa

Central & Eastern EuropeLatin America

Nordic Economies

Middle East & North Africa

South-Eastern Europe

Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand & Vietnam; Australia, New Zealand

Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Korea, Mongolia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka & Taiwan; Australia, New Zealand

Belize, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico & Trinidad and Tobago

Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay & Venezuela

Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia & Slovenia

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan & Uzbekistan; Georgia, Turkmenistan, Ukraine

Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Greece, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, Romania, Serbia & Turkey

G7 (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom & United States), plus an overview of the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India & China); Switzerland

Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia & Spain

Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden & Iceland

Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates & Yemen

Angola, Botswana, Cote d’Ivoire, DR Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda & Zambia

ASEAN Countries

Central America& Caribbean

East & South Asia

CIS Countries

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CONSENSUS FORECAST - FocusEconomics · FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 3 August 2016 economic uncertainty. The result is largely due to the downside risks to the Eurozone outlook