CONSENSUS FORECAST€¦ · BELARUS 2 CALENDAR 8 NOTES 10 PUBLICATION DATE 10 May 2016 FORECASTS COLLECTED 3 May - 9 May 2016 INFORMATION AVAILABLE Up to and including 9 May 2016 NEXT

CONSENSUS FORECAST

BELARUS 2CALENDAR 8NOTES 10

PUBLICATION DATE 10 May 2016FORECASTS COLLECTED 3 May - 9 May 2016

INFORMATION AVAILABLE Up to and including 9 May 2016 NEXT EDITION 7 June 2016

Belarus • May 2016

ContributorsARNE POHLMAN Chief Economist

ARMANDO CICCARELLI Head of Data Solutions

RICARD TORNÉ Head of Economic Research

RICARDO ACEVES Senior Economist

ANGELA BOUZANIS Senior Economist

DIRINA MANÇELLARI Senior Economist

DAVID AMPUDIA Economist ROBERT HILL Economist MARLÈNE RUMP Economist

MASSIMO BASSETTI Economist TERESA KERSTING Economist ANDREA VETRUGNO Economist

OLGA COSCODAN Economist JEAN-PHILIPPE POURCELOT Economist MIRIAM DOWD Editor

FOCUSECONOMICS Belarus

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 2

May 2016

Belarus

REAL SECTOR | Contraction in industrial production softens in MarchIn March, industrial production fell 2.0% over the same month last year, marking an improvement compared to the 3.9% contraction recorded in February. According to the National Statistical Committee (BELSTAT), mining swung to contraction in March, while sharp contractions were recorded in manufacturing and several other components of the index.

Meanwhile, annual average growth in industrial production went up from minus 6.5% in February to minus 5.8% in March.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants see industrial production falling 1.5% in 2016, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s Consensus. For 2017, panelists see industrial output growing 1.3%.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to contract 1.2% in 2016, which is down 0.2 percentage points over the previous month’s projection. For 2017, the panel sees GDP increasing 1.5%.

Reduced remittances inflows and the spillover effect from Russia’s economic downturn caused the Belarusian economy to contract sharply in 2015. Although it likely bottomed out in 2015, the latest economic indicators from Q1 confirm that economic activity remains weak. In March, retail sales contracted for the third consecutive month and industrial production decreased for the 15th month running. After securing a much-needed USD 2 billion loan from the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization earlier this year, the government announced an ambitious pension reform, which includes raising the retirement age by three years. The reform aims not only to shore-up public finances, but also to make the country eligible for a USD 3 billion loan from the IMF to honor its debt commitments of USD 3.3 billion that are due this year alone.

The economy’s outlook is grim. Weak external and domestic dynamics coupled with debt repayments in foreign currencies will constrain growth prospects. Furthermore, a weak economic recovery in Russia will keep remittances inflows and export growth depressed. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see GDP falling 1.2% in 2016, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2017, the panel projects that the economy will rebound to a 1.5% expansion.

Inflation in March was stable at February’s 12.8%. A weak Belarusian ruble is putting upward pressure on prices. Our panel of analysts expects inflation to average 13.4% in 2016 and sees it easing to 11.5% in 2017.

Outlook deteriorates

LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages

Jean-Philippe PourcelotEconomist

Belarus

2012-14 2015-17 2018-20Population (million): 9.5 9.4 9.2GDP (USD bn): 71.2 52.7 66.0GDP per capita (USD): 7,518 5,617 7,150GDP growth (%): 1.5 -1.2 2.4Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): 0.6 0.9 0.2Public Debt (% of GDP) 32.4 49.4 51.7Inflation (%): 30.5 12.8 8.7Current Account (% of GDP): -6.7 -4.3 -5.0External Debt (% of GDP): 53.1 72.6 69.9

Industrial Production | variation in %

Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average variation of industrial production index in %.Source: National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus (BELSTAT).

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16

Year-on-year

Annual average

%



May 2016

MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation steady in MarchIn March, consumer prices rose 0.8% over the previous month, which came in well below February’s 2.9% rise and marked the slowest increase in four months. According to the National Statistical Committee, the figure came on the back of a softer expansion in all three components of the index.

Inflation came in at 12.8%, mirroring the reading tallied in February. Annual average inflation edged down to 12.5% (February: 12.8%). The core consumer price index—which strips out prices for more volatile goods, such as seasonal products and government regulated goods—eased to 1.0% in March over the previous month (February: +1.6% month-on-month). Core inflation jumped to 4.0% from February’s 3.1%.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants see inflation averaging 13.4% in 2016, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2017, panelists expect inflation to average 11.5%.

Inflation | Consumer Price Index

Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month variation of consumer price index in %.Source: National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus (BELSTAT)

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16

Month-on-month (left scale)

Year-on-year (right scale)

%%



May 2016

Economic Indicators | 2011 - 2020

Annual Data 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Real Sector Population (million) 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.4 9.3 9.3 9.2 9.2GDP per capita (USD) 6,337 6,699 7,825 8,029 6,030 5,135 5,688 6,278 7,114 8,058GDP (USD bn) 60.1 63.4 74.1 76.0 56.8 48.1 53.1 58.3 65.7 74.0GDP per capita (EUR) 4,371 5,278 6,020 5,865 5,412 4,608 5,128 5,487 6,001 6,583GDP (EUR bn) 41.4 50.0 57.0 55.5 51.0 43.2 47.8 50.9 55.4 60.5GDP (BYR tn) 297 530 649 778 870 976 1,103 1,237 1,375 1,513Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) 80.7 78.5 22.4 19.9 11.8 12.2 13.0 12.2 11.1 10.1Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 5.5 1.7 1.0 1.7 -3.9 -1.2 1.5 2.0 2.4 2.8Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 2.3 10.8 10.9 4.3 -2.4 -1.3 0.7 1.6 2.3 2.9Government Consumption (annual var. in %) -3.5 -1.0 -2.1 -2.0 -0.4 - - - - -Fixed Investment (annual var. in %) 13.9 -11.3 9.6 -5.3 -15.9 -4.3 2.6 4.9 7.0 9.1Industrial Production (annual var. in %) 9.1 5.8 -4.9 2.0 -6.6 -1.5 1.3 2.0 2.3 2.6Retail Sales (annual variation in %) 9.0 14.1 18.0 6.0 0.2 - - - - -Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 2.1 0.5 0.2 1.0 1.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0Public Debt (% of GDP) 48.5 31.3 31.9 34.1 48.5 51.8 48.0 50.3 51.7 53.1Monetary and Financial Sector Money (ann. var. of M2 in %) 64.1 58.4 15.5 14.5 -0.4 - - - - -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 53.2 59.2 18.3 18.1 13.5 13.4 11.5 10.2 8.8 7.3Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 45.0 30.0 23.5 20.0 25.0 20.8 16.0 14.8 13.9 12.9Exchange Rate (BYR per USD, eop) 5,585 8,615 9,515 14,500 18,631 20,269 21,296 21,177 20,688 20,200Exchange Rate (BYR per USD, aop) 4,412 5,666 8,895 10,326 15,971 20,276 20,783 21,236 20,932 20,444Exchange Rate (BYR per EUR, eop) 7,565 11,367 13,017 17,628 20,234 22,208 23,895 24,704 24,930 25,119Exchange Rate (BYR per EUR, aop) 6,143 7,666 11,822 13,648 17,734 22,593 23,051 24,299 24,817 25,024External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -8.4 -2.9 -10.2 -6.9 -3.7 -4.5 -4.9 -5.0 -5.0 -5.1Current Account (USD bn) -5.1 -1.9 -7.6 -5.2 -2.1 -2.1 -2.6 -2.9 -3.3 -3.8Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -3.5 0.6 -4.6 -2.6 -2.1 -2.1 -2.4 -2.9 -3.3 -3.7Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 40.9 45.6 36.5 35.4 26.2 25.6 27.8 30.2 32.9 36.1Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 44.4 45.0 41.1 38.1 28.3 27.7 30.2 33.1 36.2 39.7Exports (annual variation in %) 67.0 11.4 -19.8 -3.1 -26.1 -2.3 8.6 8.6 9.1 9.5Imports (annual variation in %) 31.4 1.4 -8.6 -7.5 -25.6 -2.1 9.0 9.3 9.5 9.8Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 4.0 1.4 2.2 1.8 - - - - - -International Reserves (USD bn) 7.9 8.1 6.7 5.1 4.2 4.4 4.8 6.1 7.1 8.2International Reserves (months of imports) 2.1 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.5External Debt (USD bn) 34.0 33.8 39.6 40.0 38.3 37.5 38.5 42.1 46.0 50.0External Debt (% of GDP) 56.6 53.3 53.5 52.6 67.4 77.9 72.5 72.2 70.1 67.5 Quarterly Data Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) -4.4 -4.2 -2.5 -1.7 -1.2 0.2 0.5 1.2 1.7 2.5Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 12.1 11.6 12.4 13.6 13.9 13.5 13.0 12.3 11.0 10.1Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 25.0 25.0 25.0 21.7 21.0 20.8 18.3 16.6 16.5 16.0Exchange Rate (BYR per USD, eop) 17,670 18,631 20,025 20,069 20,130 20,269 20,900 21,383 21,700 21,296Exchange Rate (BYR per EUR, eop) 19,750 20,234 22,788 22,678 22,272 22,208 23,067 23,720 24,322 23,895 Monthly Data Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16Industrial Production (annual var. in %) -6.0 -6.4 -7.1 -7.1 -7.1 -1.1 -6.8 -3.9 -2.0 -Retail Sales (annual variation in %) 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.2 -1.8 -0.2 -0.9 -Unemployment (% of active population) 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 -Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 0.2 0.2 1.3 0.8 0.5 1.2 1.9 2.9 0.8 -Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 12.5 11.8 11.9 11.5 11.3 12.0 11.4 12.8 12.8 -Exchange Rate (BYR per USD, eop) 15,256 17,453 17,670 17,445 18,090 18,631 21,250 21,325 20,025 19,215Exchange Rate (BYR per EUR, eop) 16,763 19,572 19,750 19,199 19,111 20,234 23,028 23,187 22,788 22,013



May 2016

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product and Fiscal Balance

1 | Real GDP | 2000-2020 | var. in %

3 | GDP 2016 | evolution of forecasts

5 | Unemployment | % of active pop.

7 | Unemployment | evolution of fcst

2 | Real GDP | Q1 13-Q4 17 | var. in % Economic Growth and Fiscal Balance

4 | GDP 2017 | evolution of forecasts

6 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP

8 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2020 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus (BELSTAT) and the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus (NBRB). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: BELSTAT.2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.

Source: BELSTAT.3 GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2017 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: BELSTAT.6 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: NBRB.7 Unemployment, evolution of 2016 and 2017 forecasts during the last 18

months.8 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP, evolution of 2016

and 2017 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Individual Forecasts 2016 2017 2016 2017BMI Research -0.3 1.3 0.1 0.1BofA Merrill Lynch 0.0 1.0 1.3 0.5EIU -1.5 2.0 0.6 -0.4Frontier Strategy Group -3.8 1.5 - -HSBC -1.0 1.5 0.8 1.5JPMorgan 0.0 2.0 0.5 0.5KUKE S.A. -1.3 1.4 0.1 0.4Oxford Economics -1.0 1.8 - -Raiffeisen Research -2.0 1.5 0.0 0.0Sberbank 0.7 1.5 - -WIIW -2.6 0.5 1.0 1.0SummaryMinimum -3.8 0.5 0.0 -0.4Maximum 0.7 2.0 1.3 1.5Median -1.0 1.5 0.6 0.5Consensus -1.2 1.5 0.5 0.4History30 days ago -1.0 1.5 0.5 0.460 days ago -0.8 1.5 0.3 0.490 days ago -0.4 1.5 0.4 0.4Additional ForecastsIMF (Apr. 2016) -2.7 0.4 - -World Bank (Apr. 2016) -3.0 -1.0 - -Government (Dec. 2015) 0.3 - - -

Real GDP Fiscal Balancevariation in % % of GDP

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

BelarusEastern EuropeWorld

0

5

10

15

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Belarus

Eastern Europe

-5.0

-2.5

0.0

2.5

5.0

Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Q1 17

BelarusEastern EuropeWorld

-2

0

2

4

6

Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar

MaximumConsensusMinimum

-4

-2

0

2

4



0.5

0.8

1.1

1.4

1.7


2016 2017

-4

-2

0

2


2016 2017

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Belarus

Eastern Europe



May 2016

Monetary and External Sector | Inflation and Current Account Balance

9 | Inflation | 2000 - 2020 | in %

11 | Inflation 2016 | evolution of fcst

10 | Inflation | Q1 13-Q4 17 | var. in % Consumer Price Index and Current Account Balance

12 | Inflation 2017 | evolution of fcst

13 | Current Account | % of GDP 14 | Current Account | evol. of fcst

Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2020 unless otherwise stated. All monetary and external sector data are from the National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus (BELSTAT) and the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus (NBRB). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 9 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop). Source: BELSTAT.10 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop). Source:

BELSTAT.11 Inflation, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.12 Inflation, evolution of 2017 forecasts during the last 18 months.13 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: NBRB.14 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2016 and 2017 forecasts during the last

18 months.

-6.0

-5.5

-5.0

-4.5

-4.0


2016 2017

-20

-10

0

10

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Belarus

Eastern Europe

0

50

100

150

200

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

BelarusEastern Europe

0

10

20

30

Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Q1 17

BelarusEastern Europe

5

10

15

20

25



0

5

10

15

20

25



Individual Forecasts 2016 2017 2016 2017BMI Research 10.5 9.5 -6.1 -6.7BofA Merrill Lynch 12.0 10.0 -2.1 -2.0EIU - - - -Frontier Strategy Group 16.0 12.0 - -HSBC 12.0 11.0 -4.3 -6.2JPMorgan 12.5 11.5 -2.5 -3.0KUKE S.A. 12.4 9.5 -4.0 -4.2Oxford Economics 14.0 10.0 -8.0 -8.1Raiffeisen Research 16.0 16.0 -6.4 -6.4Sberbank 14.4 12.6 - -WIIW 14.0 13.0 -2.3 -2.4SummaryMinimum 10.5 9.5 -8.0 -8.1Maximum 16.0 16.0 -2.1 -2.0Median 13.2 11.3 -4.2 -5.2Consensus 13.4 11.5 -4.5 -4.9History30 days ago 13.7 11.5 -4.3 -4.760 days ago 13.9 11.4 -4.1 -4.590 days ago 14.0 11.7 -4.1 -4.6Additional ForecastsIMF (Apr. 2016) 13.6 12.1 - -World Bank (Apr. 2016) 14.0 13.0 - -

CPI Current Accountvariation in % % of GDP



May 2016

Fact Sheet

Belarus in the Region

Population | %-share in Eastern Europe GDP | %-share in Eastern Europe

Belarus1.5%

Russia 31.7%

Turkey 19.3%

Poland 12.8%

Czech Republic

4.9%

Other29.6%

Belarus1.9%

Russia 29.6%

Turkey 16.0%

Ukraine 8.8%

Poland 7.8%

Other35.7%

Other EU-2717.2%

Germany6.1%

China

5.9%

Russia54.8%

Other16.0%

Ukraine11.3%

Other EU-2721.5%

U.K.8.1%

Russia42.1%

Other17.0%

Other7.9%

Manufact. Products50.3%

Mineral Fuels32.5%

Food9.4%

Other6.0%

Manufact. Products46.7%

Mineral Fuels34.4%

Food12.9%

Trade Structure

Primary markets | share in %

Primary products | share in %

Economic Structure

GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %

Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

-30

0

30

60

90

1202006-08 2009-11 2012-14

Net Exports

Investment

GovernmentConsumption

PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002006-08 2009-11 2012-14

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data

Economic Infrastructure

Political Data

Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings

Strengths Weaknesses

• Difficult business climate

.

• Lack of structural reforms inkey sectors

• Strategically located between Russia and Europe• Highly skilled labor force

• Dependence on Russian economy

Energy (2012)Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 74.0Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 1,184Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 29.1Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 33.3Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 32.1Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 188CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 67.1

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: Caa1 NegativeS&P: B- StableFitch Ratings: - -

Telecommunication (2014) Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 48.5Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 123Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 54.2Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 28.8

Transportation (2013) Airports: 33Railways (km): 5,537Roadways (km): 86,392Waterways (km): 2,500Chief Ports: Mazyr

Official name: Republic of BelarusCapital: Minsk (1.92m)Other cities: Gomel (0.5m)

Mogilev (0.4m)Area (km2): 207,600Population (million, 2015 est.): 9.4Population density (per km2, 2015): 45.4Population growth rate (%, 2015 est.): -0.2Life expectancy (years, 2015 est.): 72.5Illiteracy rate (%, 2015): 0.3Language: Belarusian, RussianMeasures: Metric SystemTime: GMT+3

President: Alexander LukashenkoLast elections: 11 October 2015Next elections: 2020Central Bank Governor: Pavel Kallaur

FOCUSECONOMICS


May 2016

Economic Release Calendar

(*) Preliminary estimate. (**) Approximate date.

Date Country Event10 May Bulgaria March Industrial Production10 May Czech Republic April Consumer Prices10 May Latvia April Consumer Prices10 May Turkey March Balance of Payments 10 May Belarus April Consumer Prices11 May Romania March Industrial Production12 May Estonia Q1 2016 National Accounts (*)12 May Romania Q1 2016 National Accounts (*)12 May Romania April Consumer Prices12 May Slovakia March Industrial Production12 May Serbia April Consumer Prices12 May Kosovo April Consumer Prices13 May Bulgaria April Consumer Prices13 May Bulgaria Q1 2016 National Accounts (*)13 May Hungary Q1 2016 National Accounts (*)13 May Poland Central Bank Meeting13 May Poland April Consumer Prices (**)13 May Slovakia Q1 2016 National Accounts (*)14 May Croatia April Consumer Prices16 May Russia Q1 2016 National Accounts (*)16 May Kazakhstan April Industrial Production16 May Belarus April Industrial Production17 May Czech Republic Q1 2016 National Accounts (*)17 May Slovenia March Industrial Production17 May Serbia Central Bank Meeting 18 May Latvia Q1 2016 Unemployment18 May Russia April Industrial Production18 May Slovakia April Consumer Prices20 May Poland April Industrial Production (**)20 May Poland May Business Confidence (**)23 May Lithuania April Industrial Production23 May Turkey May Consumer Confidence24 May Czech Republic May Economic Sentiment24 May Hungary Central Bank Meeting24 May Poland April Retail Sales (**)24 May Turkey Central Bank Meeting26 May Hungary May GKI-Erste Economic Sentiment Index (**)26 May Russia April Merchandise Trade (**)26 May Ukraine April Industrial Production26 May Ukraine Central Bank Meeting26 May Kosovo Q4 2015 National Accounts27 May Poland Q1 2016 National Accounts (**)27 May Kosovo April Merchandise Trade

Calendar

FOCUSECONOMICS


May 2016

Economic Release Calendar

(*) Preliminary estimate. (**) Approximate date.

Date Country Event30 May Croatia April Industrial Production31 May Estonia April Industrial Production31 May Latvia Q1 2016 National Accounts31 May Lithuania Q1 2016 National Accounts31 May Slovenia Q1 2016 National Accounts31 May Slovenia May Consumer Prices31 May Serbia April Industrial Production 1 June Czech Republic May Markit Manufacturing PMI1 June Russia May Markit Manufacturing PMI1 June Turkey May ICI PMI1 June Kazakhstan May Consumer Prices2 June Poland May Markit Manufacturing PMI3 June Czech Republic Q1 2016 National Accounts3 June Latvia April Industrial Production3 June Russia May Markit Services PMI3 June Turkey May Consumer Prices6 June Russia May Consumer Prices (**)7 June Bulgaria Q1 2016 National Accounts7 June Croatia Q1 2016 National Accounts (*)7 June Czech Republic April Industrial Production7 June Estonia May Consumer Prices7 June Hungary Q1 2016 National Accounts7 June Hungary April Industrial Production (*)7 June Romania Q1 2016 National Accounts7 June Slovakia Q1 2016 National Accounts

FOCUSECONOMICS


May 2016

Notes and Statements

DISCLOSURE STATEMENT

The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast (“Forecast”) is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable. FocusEconomics and the participating panelists (“Information Providers”) do not guarantee that the information supplied in the Forecast is accurate, complete or timely. The Information Providers do not make any warranties with regard to the results obtained from the Forecast. The Information Providers are not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for any injuries or damages resulting from the use of this information, including incidental and consequential damages. Recipients should not regard the Forecast as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgement. The recommendations made in the Forecast may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. The Forecast has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation of any transaction or an offer to enter into any transaction. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice and the Information Providers are under no obligation to update the information contained herein.

PUBLICATION NOTE Consensus forecasts are mean averages of projections of economic forecasters surveyed by FocusEconomics for our monthly publication. Quarterly averages may not correspond to the annual figures due to different forecast panels.

The GDP-weighted averages for the regional aggregates refer to economies surveyed by FocusEconomics on a monthly basis, and include the following countries:

Central and Eastern Europe (11 countries): Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Romania; Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia and Slovenia are also Euro area members.South-Eastern Europe (12 countries): Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey; Bulgaria, Croatia and Romania are also Central and Eastern Europe members; Cyprus and Greece are also Euro area members.Balkans (7 countries): Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia.CIS countries (12 countries): Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan; Georgia, Turkmenistan and Ukraine are not members of CIS, but are included for reasons of geography and similarity in economic structure.Central Asia (5 countries): Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.Caucasus (3 countries): Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia.

Weights are based on market exchange rates and reflect the latest forecasts on GDP growth, inflation and exchange rates.

COPYRIGHT NOTE © Copyright 2016 FocusEconomics S.L.U. Duplication, reproduction, transmission, publication or redistribution in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, or otherwise without prior written consent of FocusEconomics S.L. is strictly prohibited. Please cite source when quoting. All rights reserved under International Copyright Conventions.

The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Eastern Europe is a monthly publication of FocusEconomics. Communications to the Editor or FocusEconomics in general should be addressed as follows:

FocusEconomics S.L.U.Gran Via 657, E-08010 Barcelona, SpainE-mail: [email protected]

Notes

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MONETARY & FINANCIAL SECTORMoneyInflation Rate Policy Interest Rate Exchange Rate

127 COUNTRIES IN 12 REGIONS

Major Economies

Euro Area

Sub-Saharan Africa

Central & Eastern EuropeLatin America

Nordic Economies

Middle East & North Africa

South-Eastern Europe

Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand & Vietnam; Australia, New Zealand

Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Korea, Mongolia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka & Taiwan; Australia, New Zealand

Belize, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico & Trinidad and Tobago

Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay & Venezuela

Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia & Slovenia

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan & Uzbekistan; Georgia, Turkmenistan, Ukraine

Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Greece, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, Romania, Serbia & Turkey

G7 (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom & United States), plus an overview of the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India & China); Switzerland

Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia & Spain

Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden & Iceland

Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates & Yemen

Angola, Botswana, Cote d’Ivoire, DR Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda & Zambia

ASEAN Countries

Central America& Caribbean

East & South Asia

CIS Countries

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Documents

CONSENSUS FORECAST€¦ · BELARUS 2 CALENDAR 8 NOTES 10 PUBLICATION DATE 10 May 2016 FORECASTS COLLECTED 3 May - 9 May 2016 INFORMATION AVAILABLE Up to and including 9 May 2016 NEXT