Congressional Results 2012

Opportunities to discuss course content

• Thursday 10-2

• Friday 10-12

Learning Objectives

• Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2012 Election.

• Evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of how presidential and congressional elections are financed.

Goals of Congressperson

• The Primary Goal is to Get Elected

• The Next goal is to get re-elected(Mayhew, 1974)

PARTISANSHIP AND TURNOUT

Partisanship is Most Important

• The biggest factor in Congressional election

• Even in open seat elections

Safe Seats

• Seat Maximization through Gerrymandering

• Majority Minority Districts

Residential Self Selection

INCUMBENCYMajor Factor 2

Incumbency

• Can Eclipse Partisanship in some places

• A resource that provides many benefits

Incumbency

• The incumbent dominates the discourse

• The incumbent has the advantages

• It is the Incumbent’s seat to lose

Incumbent Benefit #1 - Money

• Attract Money at Higher Rates

• The War Chest

Incumbent Benefit #2 - Name Recognition

• We Vote For Who We Know

• What can Incumbents Do?

Benefit 3 – Weak Challengers

• Run against Losers

• Scare off Good Challengers

Spending My Own Money

Voluntary Retirements

• When candidates leave office, rather than run for re-election.

• Why people Retire?

Lose<Not Run<Win

HOW INCUMBENTS CAN LOSE

Stop Playing the Game

• Get too Old

• Become inattentive

• Scandal

Strategic Challengers can Alter This

• They run when national trends favor their party

• They have local advantages as well

• They also have the most to lose!

How Strategic Challengers Change Campaigns

• Attract Money

• Can turn National Issues into Local Ones

• Are Quality Challengers as Well

What is a Quality Challenger

• A person who has formerly/currently held elective office

• Name Recognition, Access to Money, a constituuency

INCUMBENCY IN THE HOUSE AND SENATE

House Incumbency

Senate Incumbency

• Senators are More vulnerable

GOING INTO 2012

Breakdown

Not a Wave Election

Why no wave?

• We hated Congress, but no one specifically

• The economy still wasn’t great

• The negative campaign

• Obama’s Popularity (too close to 50%)

THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

The Results (D+8)

The Importance of Partisanship

• Republican Districts voted Republican, Democratic Districts voted Democratic

• Balanced districts split almost evenly

Republican Exposure

• The Republicans had more exposure

• Very Few Toss-up Seats

• Probably would have survived a wave.

The Democrats

• Actually Won the Nationwide Popular Vote

• Did not Take Back the House– Redistricting– Wasted Votes

Winners and Losers 2012

Redistricting

• The process of redrawing districts within a state

• State legislatures control the battle

• Very Political

The Role of Redistricting

• A Result of the 2002 election

• GOP Legislatures controlled 202 seats

• Democratic Legislatures controlled 47 seats

GOP Redistricting Tactics

• Create safer seats

• Remember the lesson of 2002

Republicans Have A Structural Advantage

• Democrats are more compacted

• Democratic areas are overwhelmingly democratic

• Democrats are “safer”

Regional Voting

Democrats

• New England

• California

• West Coast

Republicans

• South

• Upper Midwest

Money and the House

The 2014 Election

• Not Many Toss-up Seats

• Difficult to Reassemble Presidential Coalition

• 6 year Itch

THE SENATE

The Dynamics

• The More Incumbents you have, the more you have to Defend

– 23 Democratic Seats

– 10 Republican Seats

• Democrats have a 53-47 lead

Where Were They?

The Results

Democrats Republicans Incumbent Winners 16 5 (71%) Challenger Wins 1 (MA) 0 Open Seats Defended 6 of 7 2 of 4 Open Seats Captured 2 (IN, ME) 1 (Neb)

What Explains the Results

• Incumbency

• Partisanship

• Candidate Factors

Indiana

• Supposed to be safe GOP

• Richard Mourdock.

• The GOP Loses by 6%

Missouri

• Clair McCaskill is very vulnerable

• Cross-over spending in the primary

• Todd Akin loses by 15%

Massachusetts

• Elizabeth Warren vs. Scott Brown

• Warren outraises Brown by 14 million

• Brown is the only incumbent to lose

Open Seats

• Maine

• North Dakota

• Montana

A Banner Year for Political Money

• 1 Billion is Spent

Outside Money is important, but not crucial

Money isn’t Everything

• Self Financed candidates still lose

• Poor David Dewhurst

Looking ahead to 2014

• The Republicans expected to gain…they didn’t

• Democrats have More exposure

• 7 seats are from states where Obama won

Can the Democrats Expand?

• Only 1 GOP Seat from a State where Obama Won

• Will the Republicans be “the stupid party”