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Conflict in the HornIntroduction to the moduleUnderstanding theHorn.org

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Curriculum Overview1. Conflict patterns

Types of conflict: inter-state vs. intra-state Regional differences: Horn of Africa vs. Sub-Saharan Africa

2. Conflict consequences Conflict-related deaths in the Horn of Africa Internally displaced persons & refugees in the Horn of Africa

3. Conflict sources Violent events & ecosystems in the Horn of Africa

4. Conflict management Local strategy: peace committees in Kenya National strategy: Ministry of Federal Affairs in Ethiopia Regional strategy: Intergovernmental Authority on Development

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Conflict between countries (inter-state conflict) is a relatively rare occurrence.

Example: war broke out between Ethiopia and Somalia in 1977-1978 over control of the Ogaden region that is controlled by Ethiopia

Conflict within countries (intra-state conflict) remains a recurrent problem.

Example: the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) fought a civil war against the national government of Ethiopia between 1975 and 1991

Violent conflicts in the Horn of Africa conform to broader regional patterns found across much of Sub-Saharan Africa

Conflicts in Sub-Saharan Africa are mainly intra-state

Source: Correlates of War; Fearon and Laitin (2003)

Conflicts in the Horn of Africa are also mainly intra-state

Source: Correlates of War; Fearon and Laitin (2003)

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Source: Fearon and Laitin (2003)

Civil wars have occurred in nearly half of the countries in Sub-Saharan Africa

Civil warNo civil warNot in sample

Note: civil wars are defined as conflicts resulting in more than 1,000 battlefield deaths

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Source: UCDP

Sudan

Ethiopia

Somalia

Eritrea

Djibouti

Kenya

Insurgencies across the Horn of Africa

Note: points indicate approximate geographic location of insurgencies

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The countries of the Horn, on average, experience more violent events than countries in the rest of the continent.

Unlike the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa, two civil wars in the Horn have resulted in secession – the birth of new countries.

• Eritrea became an independent country after separating from Ethiopia in 1993• South Sudan became an independent country after

separating from Sudan in 2011

Conflict patterns in the Horn of Africa also differ from the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa in important ways

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Source: SCAD 3.0

Countries in the Horn experience more political violence

Note: political violence refers to government and anti-government violent events

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Ethiopia

Sudan

Somalia

Eritrea

Djibouti

Kenya

Source: SCAD 3.0

Note: points indicate approximate geographic location of violent events

Violent events across the Horn of Africa

(1990-2011)

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Source: SCAD 3.0

Countries in the Horn experience more protests

Note: protests refer to organized and spontaneous demonstrations

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Example: Ethiopia has more episodes of protest than Eritrea

Eritrea

Ethiopia

There are differences in conflict patterns among the countries of the Horn of Africa

Source: SCAD 3.0

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Source: Arriola (2013)

There are also differences in conflict patterns within countries

Post-election protestNo protest

Example: protests in Ethiopia’s largest region, Oromia, occurred only in select districts in 2005.

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Conflicts in the Horn of Africa have severe consequences:thousands of soldiers and rebels are killed annually

Source: Lacina and Gleditsch (2005)

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Conflicts in the Horn of Africa have severe consequences: internally displaced persons and refugees number in millions

Source: USCRI/Marshall

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• Poverty • Economic competition• Weak governance institutions• Political & social grievances• Ethnic and religious differences• Difficult terrain • Environmental stress

Conflicts in the Horn of Africa are associated with many of the factors related to conflicts across Sub-Saharan Africa

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Source: SCAD 3.0; AAG/USGS

Violent events and ecosystems

some scholars argue that conflicts are sparked by environmental conditions

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Persistent drought across much of the Horn of Africa affected 13 million people in 2011 and 2012

Source: UN OCHA

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Source: Understanding the Horn

Communal conflicts in Kenya (2000-2008)

Example: conflicts between ethnic groups in Kenya appear to be concentrated in the arid parts of the country’s north.

Of 239 communal violence events coded between 2000 and 2008, 50% involved cattle rustling and another 22% involved land and water access.

Note: points indicate approximate location of communal conflicts within districts

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A local strategy in Kenya relies on traditional forms of mediation to reconcile members of different groups

Peace committees have been formed in parts of northern Kenya where government institutions are weak or absent

Peace committees have been formed across northern Kenyan districts like Garissa, Isiolo, Moyale, and Wajir

Community elders typically meet to discuss the sources of conflict (e.g., farmer vs. pastoralist land access), options for restitution, and means for preventing future violence

Multiple strategies are pursued to manage conflict in the Horn

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A national strategy in Ethiopia relies on a government organization to monitor and intervene in conflicts

The Ministry of Federal Affairs was established to manage conflict resolution between ethnic groups as well as the ethnically-defined states of the country’s federal system

The Ministry studies existing conflicts, makes policy recommendations for their resolution, and can deploy the Federal Police to intervene when violence erupts

The Ministry has actively intervened in conflicts in the states of Afar, Benishangul-Gumuz, Gambella, and Somali

Multiple strategies are pursued to manage conflict in the Horn

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A regional strategy pursued by the countries of the Horn is to work jointly towards conflict management through the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD)

Multiple strategies are pursued to manage conflict in the Horn

IGAD is a regional organization that includes Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, South Sudan, Sudan and Uganda

In 2002 IGAD members established a Conflict Early Warning and Response Mechanism (CEWARN) to issue reports on incidents of conflict, especially among pastoralist communities

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Further explorationsExplore existing data sources

Examine how they define and code episodes of conflict Compare how different data sources code the same conflicts

Explore different types of conflict Example: pastoralists conflicts in Ethiopia Example: communal conflicts in Kenya

Explore different strategies of conflict management Example: peace councils in southern Ethiopia Example: African Union’s Peace and Security Department

For More, See http://understandingthehorn.org/

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Further explorationsData sources on conflict

Social Conflict in Africa Database (SCAD) <http://www.strausscenter.org/scad.html

Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP)http://www.pcr.uu.se/research/UCDP/

Armed Conflict Location & Event Datasethttp://www.acleddata.com/

Reports on conflict-related events and trends Conflict Early Warning and Response Mechanism (CEWARN)

http://www.cewarn.org/ Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET)

http://www.fews.net/east Reliefweb

http://reliefweb.int/disaster/dr-2011-000029-ken

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CREDITSUnderstanding the Horn of Africa

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Understanding the Horn of Africa

An online curriculum project of the Center for African Studies, University of California, Berkeley

This material was developed under a Title VI International Research and Studies grant from the U.S. Department of Education. However, the content does not necessarily represent the policy or views of the U.S. Department of Education, or imply endorsement by the Federal Government.

• Principal Investigator: Leonardo Arriola• Project Coordinator: Martha Saavedra• Project Assistant: Tami Driver,• Web Development: Kim Carl and Howie Lan• Web Designer and Graphics: Casondra Sobieralski

http://understandingthehorn.org/