Conflict and the EnvironmentConflict and the Environment

Betts, pages 483-507Betts, pages 483-507

OverviewOverview

Territorial conflictsTerritorial conflicts Other resource conflicts (e.g. water)Other resource conflicts (e.g. water)

The Importance of TerritoryThe Importance of Territory

1)1) Territory is an essential characteristic of a Territory is an essential characteristic of a nation-state.nation-state.

2)2) Territory is important for the national Territory is important for the national economy.economy.

3)3) Territory is important for defense.Territory is important for defense.

4)4) Territory can be linked to a particular Territory can be linked to a particular ethnic or religious group.ethnic or religious group.

5)5) Psychological importancePsychological importance

Contiguity and WarContiguity and War

Question: are contiguous states (with shared Question: are contiguous states (with shared borders) more likely to fight each other?borders) more likely to fight each other?

John Vasquez examines this question in his John Vasquez examines this question in his research.research.

Between 1816-1980, 88% of interstate wars Between 1816-1980, 88% of interstate wars (59 of 67) and 86% (24 of 28) of all (59 of 67) and 86% (24 of 28) of all rivalries have been between neighbors.rivalries have been between neighbors.

Competing Explanations for the Competing Explanations for the Contiguity-War RelationshipContiguity-War Relationship

ProximityProximity Neighbors fight because they can reach Neighbors fight because they can reach

each other (loss of strength with distance)each other (loss of strength with distance) Problem: contiguity remains fairly Problem: contiguity remains fairly

constant, but war is infrequentconstant, but war is infrequent Technology alters military reach over timeTechnology alters military reach over time

Competing Explanations for the Competing Explanations for the Contiguity-War RelationshipContiguity-War Relationship

InteractionInteraction Borders provide more opportunity for Borders provide more opportunity for

conflictconflict Problem: we cannot account for cooperation Problem: we cannot account for cooperation

in some contiguous dyads and conflict in in some contiguous dyads and conflict in othersothers

Competing Explanations for the Competing Explanations for the Contiguity-War RelationshipContiguity-War Relationship

Territoriality (Vasquez)Territoriality (Vasquez) Wars arise from specific territorial disputesWars arise from specific territorial disputes Proximity provides the Proximity provides the opportunityopportunity for war, while for war, while

a territorial dispute provides the a territorial dispute provides the willingnesswillingness for for warwar

Humans have an inherited tendency towards Humans have an inherited tendency towards territorialityterritoriality, the tendency to occupy and defend , the tendency to occupy and defend territoryterritory

Learned behavior: the use of force to resolve Learned behavior: the use of force to resolve territorial disputesterritorial disputes

Empirical EvidenceEmpirical Evidence

The most common issue at stake in war and The most common issue at stake in war and in militarized disputes is territory.in militarized disputes is territory.

Holsti (1991): 80-90% of the wars from Holsti (1991): 80-90% of the wars from 1648-1989 involved contests over territory1648-1989 involved contests over territory

MID data (1816-1992): over ¼ of all MID data (1816-1992): over ¼ of all disputes involve territorydisputes involve territory

Territorial claims (ICOW): All major Territorial claims (ICOW): All major borders in the Americas have been disputed borders in the Americas have been disputed at some point since 1816.at some point since 1816.

Empirical EvidenceEmpirical Evidence

Militarized response and war is much more Militarized response and war is much more likely in territorial disputes (Hensel)likely in territorial disputes (Hensel)

Territorial disputes produce recurrent Territorial disputes produce recurrent conflict (Huth, Hensel); 72% of MIDs conflict (Huth, Hensel); 72% of MIDs involving territorial issues are followed by involving territorial issues are followed by another MID, versus 58% for nonterritorial another MID, versus 58% for nonterritorial disputes disputes

Policy PrescriptionsPolicy Prescriptions

The greatest threat to peace today stems The greatest threat to peace today stems from nationalist claims for new states from nationalist claims for new states (Vasquez)(Vasquez)

Such claims create the potential for new Such claims create the potential for new territorial disputes and conflictterritorial disputes and conflict

Once boundary issues are resolved, the Once boundary issues are resolved, the chances for war are smallchances for war are small

Other Resource ConflictsOther Resource Conflicts

Cross-border rivers (In the Americas, 8.6% Cross-border rivers (In the Americas, 8.6% of rivers crossing state boundaries have of rivers crossing state boundaries have been the subject of a claim)been the subject of a claim)

Maritime zones (In the Americas, 43% of Maritime zones (In the Americas, 43% of adjoining maritime zones have been the adjoining maritime zones have been the subject of a claim)subject of a claim)

Source: Issue Correlates of War (ICOW) Source: Issue Correlates of War (ICOW) Project (Hensel and Mitchell)Project (Hensel and Mitchell)