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Conflict and the EnvironmentConflict and the Environment
Betts, pages 483-507Betts, pages 483-507
OverviewOverview
Territorial conflictsTerritorial conflicts Other resource conflicts (e.g. water)Other resource conflicts (e.g. water)
The Importance of TerritoryThe Importance of Territory
1)1) Territory is an essential characteristic of a Territory is an essential characteristic of a nation-state.nation-state.
2)2) Territory is important for the national Territory is important for the national economy.economy.
3)3) Territory is important for defense.Territory is important for defense.
4)4) Territory can be linked to a particular Territory can be linked to a particular ethnic or religious group.ethnic or religious group.
5)5) Psychological importancePsychological importance
Contiguity and WarContiguity and War
Question: are contiguous states (with shared Question: are contiguous states (with shared borders) more likely to fight each other?borders) more likely to fight each other?
John Vasquez examines this question in his John Vasquez examines this question in his research.research.
Between 1816-1980, 88% of interstate wars Between 1816-1980, 88% of interstate wars (59 of 67) and 86% (24 of 28) of all (59 of 67) and 86% (24 of 28) of all rivalries have been between neighbors.rivalries have been between neighbors.
Competing Explanations for the Competing Explanations for the Contiguity-War RelationshipContiguity-War Relationship
ProximityProximity Neighbors fight because they can reach Neighbors fight because they can reach
each other (loss of strength with distance)each other (loss of strength with distance) Problem: contiguity remains fairly Problem: contiguity remains fairly
constant, but war is infrequentconstant, but war is infrequent Technology alters military reach over timeTechnology alters military reach over time
Competing Explanations for the Competing Explanations for the Contiguity-War RelationshipContiguity-War Relationship
InteractionInteraction Borders provide more opportunity for Borders provide more opportunity for
conflictconflict Problem: we cannot account for cooperation Problem: we cannot account for cooperation
in some contiguous dyads and conflict in in some contiguous dyads and conflict in othersothers
Competing Explanations for the Competing Explanations for the Contiguity-War RelationshipContiguity-War Relationship
Territoriality (Vasquez)Territoriality (Vasquez) Wars arise from specific territorial disputesWars arise from specific territorial disputes Proximity provides the Proximity provides the opportunityopportunity for war, while for war, while
a territorial dispute provides the a territorial dispute provides the willingnesswillingness for for warwar
Humans have an inherited tendency towards Humans have an inherited tendency towards territorialityterritoriality, the tendency to occupy and defend , the tendency to occupy and defend territoryterritory
Learned behavior: the use of force to resolve Learned behavior: the use of force to resolve territorial disputesterritorial disputes
Empirical EvidenceEmpirical Evidence
The most common issue at stake in war and The most common issue at stake in war and in militarized disputes is territory.in militarized disputes is territory.
Holsti (1991): 80-90% of the wars from Holsti (1991): 80-90% of the wars from 1648-1989 involved contests over territory1648-1989 involved contests over territory
MID data (1816-1992): over ¼ of all MID data (1816-1992): over ¼ of all disputes involve territorydisputes involve territory
Territorial claims (ICOW): All major Territorial claims (ICOW): All major borders in the Americas have been disputed borders in the Americas have been disputed at some point since 1816.at some point since 1816.
Empirical EvidenceEmpirical Evidence
Militarized response and war is much more Militarized response and war is much more likely in territorial disputes (Hensel)likely in territorial disputes (Hensel)
Territorial disputes produce recurrent Territorial disputes produce recurrent conflict (Huth, Hensel); 72% of MIDs conflict (Huth, Hensel); 72% of MIDs involving territorial issues are followed by involving territorial issues are followed by another MID, versus 58% for nonterritorial another MID, versus 58% for nonterritorial disputes disputes
Policy PrescriptionsPolicy Prescriptions
The greatest threat to peace today stems The greatest threat to peace today stems from nationalist claims for new states from nationalist claims for new states (Vasquez)(Vasquez)
Such claims create the potential for new Such claims create the potential for new territorial disputes and conflictterritorial disputes and conflict
Once boundary issues are resolved, the Once boundary issues are resolved, the chances for war are smallchances for war are small
Other Resource ConflictsOther Resource Conflicts
Cross-border rivers (In the Americas, 8.6% Cross-border rivers (In the Americas, 8.6% of rivers crossing state boundaries have of rivers crossing state boundaries have been the subject of a claim)been the subject of a claim)
Maritime zones (In the Americas, 43% of Maritime zones (In the Americas, 43% of adjoining maritime zones have been the adjoining maritime zones have been the subject of a claim)subject of a claim)
Source: Issue Correlates of War (ICOW) Source: Issue Correlates of War (ICOW) Project (Hensel and Mitchell)Project (Hensel and Mitchell)