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Conflict Analysis
Joakim KreutzDepartment of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala
University
Objectives of the Lecture
• Introduce a method to analyse conflicts• Speak a common language; agreement on a
specific terminology• Make a link between conflict analysis and
context analysis in your (change) project
What is Conflict Analysis?
• A method for presenting a systematic analysis of a conflict at a given moment in time, usually with some conclusions relating to e.g. risk assessment, scenario analysis, or conflict sensitivity
Why Conflict Analysis?
• To better understand a conflict for the purpose of improving decision-making, e.g. in regards to conflict prevention, management, and resolution
• Improved understanding of the context in which different organizations work and their role in it
• Relevant both for actors working ”on” and ”in” conflict
• Relevant both from perspective of ”Do No Harm” and ”Do Maximum Good”
• Relevant for all types of conflicts, not just armed/political
How to do a Conflict Analysis?
• Different analytical frameworks and
methodologies available
Methods: desk study or in the field, outside
(neutral) or inside (partial) view
Sources: reports and previous analyses, official
documents and statements, academic studies,
interviews, stakeholder workshops
Definition of conflict
”A social situation in which a minimum of two
actors (parties) strive to acquire at the same
moment in time an available set of scarce
resources”
(Wallensteen 2007:
15)
Level of Analysis?
• International
• Regional
• Country
• Community/Group
• Individual
Basic Structure for Conflict Analysis?
• Parties (actors)
• Conflict Issues
• Conflict Behaviour
• Conflict Attitudes
• Conflict Dynamics
• Conflict Resolution
1. Parties (Actors)
• Primary parties: The central actors who are
pursuing the issues at stake in the conflict
• Secondary parties: Actors who support the
primary parties and indirectly affect the
dynamic of the conflict
• Third parties: Actors who are outside the
conflict and are helping the primary parties to
resolve it
The Character of the Parties
• Composition of the party: degrees of cohesion
or fragmentation
• Type of leadership
• Basis for mobilization
• The relationship between the group and its
constituency and with the society at large
Power Resources and Power Relations
• Power resources of the primary parties
• Economic, military, political
• International status, popular support, alliances,
legitimacy
• Power relations between the parties (primary
+ secondary)
• Symmetry
• Assymetry
Questions
• Who are the primary parties to the conflict?
• What are the characters of the primary
parties?
• Who are the secondary parties?
• Is there a third party?
• What power resources do the primary parties
have?
• What is the power relation between the
parties?
• Are power relations symmetrical or
assymetrical?
Conflict Issues
Attitudes
Behaviour
The Conflict Triangle
2. Conflict Issues
• Positions (subjective demands)
• Offensive or defensive positions (Change/status quo)
• General or specific positions
• Underlying interests (values, resources)
• Material or Immaterial interests
• Divisible or non-divisible interests
• Absolute or relative interests
Questions
• What is the issue at stake or the
incompatibility in question?
• What are the parties positions (subjective
definition) in regards to the issue?
• Are the positions offensive or defensive?
• Are the positions expressed in general or
specific terms?
• What are the underlying interests that can
explain the parties’ positions?
3. Conflict Behaviour
• The actions and strategies that parties use to
reach their goals or prevent others from
reaching their goals
• Violent and non-violent actions
• The targeting of certain individuals, groups or
regions; gender aspects of violence, targeting
of civilians• Selective or indiscriminate?
Questions
• What types of conflict behaviour have been
used in the conflict?
• Are some groups in society more likely to be
targeted for violence than others?
4. Conflict Attitudes
• Emotional or psychological states in a conflict
situation; fear, hate, anger, suspicion
• Cognitive processes; negative attitudes and
perceptions
• Influence on norms; individual, communal,
societal
Questions
• Which conflict attitudes are commonly
displayed by the conflicting parties and/or in
society at large?
• Try to differentiate between emotional states and
cognitive processes
• Which norms are prevalent in society?
• In general? As an effect of the conflict?
• On violence, on governance, on gender roles?
5. Conflict Dynamics
• A comprehensive analysis of conflict dynamics
inlcude a study of the causes of conflict, the
context in which the conflict takes place, and
its development over time
• The key concern is how the different
components of the conflict triangle – issues,
behavior and attitudes – relate to each other
over time
What is escalation?
Two different understandings:
• From light to heavy tactics (more destructive)
and/or geographical spread of violence
• But also an intensification of the conflict as a
whole – in all corners of the Conflict Triangle
What happens when conflicts escalate?
• From few to many parties (new parties, splits,
new alliances)
• From few and small to many and large issues
• From specific to general issues
• From light to heavy tactics (more destructive
behaviour)
• From doing well (absolute gain) to winning
(relative gain) to hurting Other (Other’s loss)
Why do they escalate?
• Temporary emotional states (fear, anger,
blame) lead to structural (permanent) changes
at different levels of analysis
• Individual level: e.g. stereotypes, deindividualization,
dehumanization
• Group level: e.g. group polarization, militant leaders
• Community level: community polarization,
segregation
Escalation and conflict resolution?
• These structural changes tend to become self-
reinforcing through the development of self-
confirmatory mechanisms at different levels of
analysis
• Individual level: self-fulfilling prophecy, selective information
processing
• Group level: development of vested interests, war economy, war
political order
• Community level: destruction of crosscutting organisations,
disappearance of neutral parties
Conflict Issues
Attitudes
Behaviour
The Conflict Triangle
Questions
• Has the parties changed over time?
• Has the conflict issues changed over time? Has
more issues been added? Have they been
generalized?
• Has the conflict behaviour of the parties
changed over time?
• Has there been phases of escalation and de-
escalation?
• Has the conflict attitudes of the parties
changed over time?
• Has there been a polarization of the conflict?
6. Conflict Resolution
• Change of/in parties
• Different mechanisms in place for resolving
issues through redrawing of territorial
boundaries or governance arrangements
• Addressing conflict behaviour through
ceasefires and DDR & SSR processes
• Adressing conflict attitudes through confidence
building measures, reconciliation, transitional
justice
Questions
• In what way does the suggested solution affect
the structure of the parties to the conflict?
• How does it attempt to manage or dissolve the
conflict issues?
• In what ways does it address conflict
behaviour?
• Does it affect the social relations between the
parties and their conflict attitudes?
Questions +1
• In what way does the suggested solution affect
the structure of the parties to the conflict?
• How does it attempt to manage or dissolve the
conflict issues?
• In what ways does it address conflict
behaviour?
• Does it affect the social relations between the
parties and their conflict attitudes?
• How does conflict resolution affect other
parties (violent and non-violent)?
Thank you!