KB/240/1CONFIDENTTAL

14-PUBLIC OPINION BACKGROUND NOTE 140

(produced 22st November 1982)

•

Introduction

The results of our latest Gallup tracking study are the same as those publishedin the Daily Telegraph (Manchester edition only) on Thursday 18th November.When compared with the results cf the oreviously published Gallup poll (conducted2 0/25 October) it found a slight fall in our lead over Labour - down from 11%%in October to 7% in the latest study. Compared with this published surveyConservative support had increased1 percentage points, Labour support 6 percentagepoints, Liberal support had fallen 3 percentage points and Social Democratsupport had fallen 2 percentage points. Compared with cur unpublished 'tracking'studies the latest survey confirms the slight downward drift in Conservativesupport, tendency to upward movement of Labour support and fairly stable levelof support for the Alliance parties. Details of the trend of support for the mainparties are shown in the table entitled 'Voting Intention on the next page of thisnote.

It is worth comparina the results of this latest Gallup study witn the findings cfa MORI study publisned in the Evening Standard on 17th November - this poll 'Lasconducted 4/10 November.

MORI Gallup

4/10 November

10/25 November

Conservative 42 42

Labour 33 35• Liberal)1

:Social Democrat

Other

Conservative Lead +9

Although conducted by a different polling organization the MORI ---,rvey confirmsthe trend of support found in our Gallup tracking study.

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2. Government Record

The Latest 'tracking study found a slign: fall in Government popularity - 39%olaimed to approve of the record of the Government to date, 18% disacprcved and1:% did not nave a view. :his :ompares very favourably Wi7h the situation at thestart of the year '.1nen Gallup found only 23% approving of our record in Government,55% disapproving and :2% nct having a view.

GCVE:2=E:IT

API:Drove Disapprove Don't Know

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1782

34

2324

262526

5/11 January13/18 january20, 25 january27 jan/L Feb3,3 Feb10/15Feb 2417,22 Feb 2224 Feb/1 March 233/3 March

11,15 March 2917/22 March 2824/29 March 2931 March/ 5 April 317/12 April 3213/19 April 3421/26 April 1428 Apri1/3 May 405/10 May 4212/17 May 4319/24 May 4526/31 May 502/7 june 49

9/14 june 4816/21 June 5123/28 June 4730 june/5 july 477/12 July 47

14/19 ;aly az21/26 July 4325 july/2 Aug 43a/9 Aug 42

:1/15 Aug 4213/23 Aug 42

2E/20 Aug 37

1,5 Sept 4:

3/12 Sett 40

15/21Sept 38

22/27 Sept 2829 Sept/4 :ct 365/11Dct 10

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3/1.3 Ncv 41

10,Nov 39

:5

55 1255 1252 1352 13so 77

55 1055 1363 1355

59 12730 1258 '7 -4=7 1255 1254 12iE 11-17 1316 12

42 15

10

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KB/:40/4

3. PocuLarit7 of 'eaders

The latest study found a slight fall in Mrs Thatcher's popularity - Scan 7c

approving of her record as ?rime Minister - 52% iisapprcving. :t found almost no

3nange in Mr Scot's popularity or that of Mr Steel. 1eta17s are sho',,r, in the table

belcw:-

POPT:LAR2TY :F P0,12T2:AL

1,2AZESS

Mrs That:herMr 7007

Sat. Dia-Don't-.7=1on't -.4-_-_sat.KnowTotKnow

Mr Stee1 :s7s0cn't

Mc:Know

1962

3/11 January 30 35 =7 0 35 14 .S7 20 13

13/18 january 32 35

13 57 ..o 39 12 1920/25 January 32 54 .:1 17 38 1' 39 42 1927 jan/I Feb 33 62 3 19 54 17 30 18 223/3 Feb 31 65 4 20 53 :7 51 70 1.a

10/15 Feb 29 36 ... 19 66 15 59 23 ,,-;17/22 Feb 29 65 3 20 64 13 58 20 2114 Feb/1 :Aaron 32 63 5 21 54 15 55 23 223/3 Maron 20 66 4 20 34 16 53 7 1 IE11/15 Maroh 34 52 ,, 21 55 :4 53 22 IC1722 Aaron 33 62 5 22 64 .., 59 21 2024/29 Aaron 35 59 6 19 35 15 61 20 1931 March/5 April 37 38 5 20 35 15 iC 27 137/12 April 35 50 6; 7 3 61 :6 63 13 1913/19 Apri1 36 60 5 76 53 14 63 18 1921i26 April 37 55 4 25 60 14 56 17 1729 April:3 May. 41 53 3 24 55 12 52 20 135/10 May 44 51 e 16 71 '1 64 70 1717/17 May 48 47 5 17 71 12 55 13 7713/24 May 47 46 5 18 72 LO 33 18 1925/31 May 50 43 7 16 78 10 54 13 192/7 June 53 42 5 15 74 _, 61 7 1 169/14 June 51 14 5 14 75 -,‘ '7 52 21 1316/21 june 55 40 5 17 74 9 58 20 2043/26 june 52 42 3 la 75 10 32 19 2030 June/3 July 53 41 6 14 77 9 64 13 13712 juiy 32 43 5 15 77 17 61 20 1914/19 july 49 46 5 14 75 ., __ 60 13 2121/25 July

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'KB/240/5

4. Published Polls

) Gallup (Dail, Tele raph 18th November 1982)

In addition to the standard 'tracking' questions considered above the Gallup poll

in the Daily Telegraph included a range of other questions. Gallup asked their

standard question on what the electorate regard as the most urgent problems

facing the country. They found:-

Most Ur ent Problems Facina the Country

All Con Lab Lib SDP

Supporters Supporters Supporters Supporters

% % % % %

Unemployment 89 89 86 92 92

IIICost of Living 26 23 27 37 23

Defence/Nuclear weapons 9 7 21 7 11

Law and Order 8 10 7 1 9

Health/Hospitals 8 6 6 8 11

Housing/Rates 6 5 9 3 7

Pensions 5 5 6 11 3

Gallup also asked respondents whether they thought each of the political parties

was united or divided at the present time. They found 12% saw Labour as being

united, 82% divided and 6% did not have a view. 65% saw the Conservatives as

being united, 26% divided and 9% did not have a view. 41% saw the Alliance as

being united, 33% divided and 26% did not have a view.

They also asked which party was seen as having the best policies and the best

leaders. They found:-

Best Policies Best Leaders

Conservative 39 46

Labour 23 19

Liberal 6 8

Social Democrats 8 11

Other 0

Don't know 19 16

KB/240/6

Gallup concluded the study with a number of questions on which party is seen as

having the best policies in a number of key areas.

Best Policies

Conservative Labour Liberal/SDP Other Don't Know

party Party Party

LLL-IL:Z

Inflation (%) 49 22 8 0 20

Unemployment (%) 24 41 12 0 24

Defence(%) 51 21 7 0 21

Common Market (%) 37 27 9 0 26

Strikes & Industrial

Relations(%) 42 34 8 0 17

National Health

Service(%) 24 44 10 0 22

The Conservatives have a lead on inflation, defence, the Common Market, and strikes

and industrial relations. Labour have a lead on unemployment and the national health

service.

(b) MORI (Evenin Standard 17th November 1982)

The Evening Standard on 17th November included details of a MORI poll conducted between

November 4th and 10th. We have considered the voting intention part of this survey

in the introduction to this BackgroundNote. The survey found an improvement in

attitudes to the future of the economy. MORI found:-

Do you think that the eneral economic ocondition of the countr, will improve, stay

the same or et worse over the next I? months?

Oct Nov

1982 1982

Improve 22 32

Stay the same 28 28

Get worse 45 34

Gallu (Sanit November 1982)

The CND magazine Sanity included in the November issue the results of a Galluo poll

conducted from 13th to 18th October cn attitudes to nuclear weapons.

The survey found only 32% approving purchase of Trident, 56% disapprov ng and

12% nct having a view.

KB/140/7

When asked about Polaris 51% wanted to keep i , 35% thought we should not keepand 13% did nct have a view.

Only 31% wanted cruise missiles to be based here, 58% did nct want cruise missilesbased here and 11% did not have a view.

On the question of American nuclear bases in Britain - 46% wanted them to remain,44% be removed and 10% did not have a view.

(c) Mar lan (Guardian 22nd November 1982)

The Guardian on 22nd November included details of a Marplan poll conducted betweenNovember 8th and 10th. The survey found 46% claiming they would vote Conservative,34% Labour, 18% Liberal/SDP and 2% for 'other' parties.