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Turning Point Leveraging Deterrence and Desistance to Reduce Reoffending

A joint research endeavor

Molly SlothowerUniversity of Maryland

University of Cambridge

Peter NeyroudUniversity of Cambridge

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Overview

‣ Theory and Evidence: Why Should This Work?

‣ The Experiment

‣ Early Findings: Application to Conditional Cautions/Community Remedy

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Deterrence: • Certainty and swiftness of punishment

• Project HOPE• Sword of Damocles

Desistance • Almost all offenders desist eventually

• Often “turning points” lead to desistance• Court is often a “turning point for the worse”

Building on lessons from the best available research…

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For many low-risk offenders, a court conviction increases offending

63% of magistrate court sentences in the UK are only a fine. Court often fails to address issues that caused the offending: drugs, relationship problemsWith a criminal conviction offenders have difficulty getting jobs to keep them out of trouble.They may gain access to criminal networks.Once an offender has a conviction, research shows the threat of another conviction is a far less effective deterrent.

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Systematic review of all studies on juvenile court processing finds juvenile court does not reduce

reoffending overall.

Most studies: backfiring effect“Almost all of the results are negative in direction, as

measured by prevalence, incidence, severity, and self-report outcomes.” Petrosino et al. (2010)

35 years, 29 studies, over 7,000 juveniles

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The Key: Separating High vs. Low Risk Offenders

Evidence shows high risk offenders need to be targeted with high supervision AND high rehabilitation……but treating low-risk offenders as if they are high risk increases their offending. Target resources to high-risk, divert low-risk into low-cost, high-impact interventions.

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Sample of offenders whom the police have decided to prosecute.

Prosecution Turning Point

Comparing like with like:Measure reoffending, cost, victim satisfaction

Random assignment

The Turning Point Experiment

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What’s Involved?‣ Voluntary participation

‣ Agreed ‘Turning-Point Plan’

‣ Compliance =

no prosecution

‣ Non-compliance

• Failure to keep to plan

• Reoffending

Breach

Prosecution

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‣ Cases entered on the randomiser at the point of charge

• Sufficient evidence

• Other options discounted

‣ Admission

• Not required

‣ Likely sentence

• Not custodial

‣ Previous convictions

• None, or 1 historic

• Previous diversions are fine

‣ Sensitive case

• Risk management

• No DV, hate, sexual offences

Filters/Factors

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Ethics

• Unknown outcome

• Randomisation only after decision to prosecute is made – non-worsening principle

• High need

• No UK RCTs of diversion effectiveness in decades

• Yet diversion is 38% of all disposals (Joint Inspectorate data)

• Victims

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Drugs/Alcohol 17 Drugs Treatment Alcohol Treatment/Support Group Random Drug Testing

Restorative Action re. Victim 14 Restorative Justice Conference Letter of Apology Mediation Reparation Payment to Victim Community Payback

Movement Constraint 11 Non-Association w/ Victim Non-Association - Negative Peers Curfew Ban on Location

Mental Health 12 Contact GP re Mental Health Anger Management Course

Self-Sufficiency Support 19 Employment Accommodation Education Debt/Money Management

(n=42 cases)

Adult Treatment Plans Pilot Phase

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Randomly Assigned Court or Breached1. Guilty £110 fine. £15 victim support. £50 costs. 2. Guilty plea. £140 fine. 3. Guilty plea. 12 month conditional discharge. 4. Guilty. Conditional discharge 12 Months. £145 Costs. 5. Guilty plea. Sentence pending. 6. Pled Guilty. £130 Fine £185 Costs. 7. Guilty. 12 Month Community Order. £100 Comp. £300 Costs. Tagged for 6

weeks. 8. Guilty. £110 fine. £85 Costs.9. Guilty. 12 Weeks suspended sentence £50 Comp. 10. Found not guilty. 11. Not Guilty. 12. Trial pending. 13. PIC failed to attend court, warrant issued for arrest . No further updates.

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Turning Point Offenders:

‣ “It keeps you out of trouble and gives you something to look forward to… It keeps it in your head that you’ve got people there who actually want to be there to help you change the way you are, and your future.”

‣ Offender with a curfew as part of her Turning Point Plan: “I just don’t go out with the people I used to go out with to get into that predicament again. I stay in more now. I go out with my family, my gran and my mom and stuff like that.”

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For many first time offenders, their first conviction often increases offending

“When I’m older, if I go to court, I won’t be as scared because I’ve already done it.”

- A young offender (assault) recently in West Midlands, talking about how he thought being prosecuted would impact his life

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“Offenders judge some supervised diversion programs as more punitive than short incarceration terms... [especially those] that include mandatory work and drug testing requirements.”

Petersilia, J. (2011). “Community Corrections: Probation, Parole, and Prisoner Reentry”. In Crime and Public Policy (eds. Wilson, J. Q., and Petersilia, J.). Oxford University Press.

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Turning Point Pilot Period

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Early Findings: Conditional Cautions and the Community Remedy

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The Key: Quality of implementationTremendous potential

• Reduce reoffending

• Satisfy victims

• Cut criminal justice costs

Substantial risks

• Ineffective/backfiring conditions

• Upset victims

• Loss of public trust and confidence

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Physicians – professional discretion • Diagnosis• Selection of treatment pathways• Dosage• NOT “how to”• Some space to innovate where appropriate

Key lessons• Bounded discretion

— Balancing professional discretion, structure— Decision support— Management technology