NEW EVIDENCES ON POTENTIAL AND RETURN MIGRATION FROM/TO BULGARIA:

MAIN DESTINATIONS AND REMITTANCE BEHAVIOR

CONFERENCE ON INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION

14th February 2014

Economic Research Institute at BAS

Aksakov str. No 3, Sofia

Vesselin Mintchev

Fieldwork

“Family Patterns and Migration”, UNFPA / BUL1P201 - Sample 2725

“Bulgarian Diaspora in Western Europe” , National Science Fund ofBulgaria / Contract № DID 02/21 – Sample 1204

„Migration and Transnationalism Between Switzerland and

Bulgaria”, BRSP – 2011-2016 / Contract № IZEBZ0_142979 – Sample

3907

Team: “Bulgarian Diaspora in Western Europe”

ERI at the BAS

• Vesselin Mintchev• Iskra Balkanska• Irena Zareva• Dimitar Statev

Other affiliations

• Evgenia Markova / London Metropolitan University

• Iordan Kaltchev / SWU - Blagoevgrad

• Valentin Goev / UNWE• Venelin Boshnakov /

UNWE• Mihaela Misheva /

UNWE• Martin Dimov / UNWE

Team: „Migration and Transnationalism Between Switzerland and Bulgaria”

ERI at the BAS and ASA

• Vesselin Mintchev• Docho Mihailov• Georgi Spopov• Venelin Boshnakov /

UNWE• Iordan Kaltchev / SWU -

Blagoevgrad• Dochka Velkova• Konstantin

Konstantinov

Universities of Friburg and Lugano

• Michael Nollert• Marina Richter• Paolo Ruspini

Migration potential – instrument

How likely is it in the near future to: Not likely

Little likely

Somewhat likely

Very likely

Go abroad to work for a few months

1 2 3 4

Go abroad to workfor more than 1 year

1 2 3 4

Emigrate to another country 1 2 3 4

When do you think your intentions can be realized?In the next 5-6 months 1

In the next 12 months 2

In the next 2-3 years 3

In a more distant future 4

Migration potential - 2007

2007Pop15-60: 4,858m Short term Long term Settlers Total

Over the next 5-6 months 0,8% 0,9% 0,4% 2,1%

Until the end of the year 1,7% 2,1% 0,8% 4,6%

Over the next 2-3 years 2,3% 2,3% 1,8% 6,4%

In the distant future 2,4% 1,4% 1,7% 5,4%

  7,2% 6,7% 4,7% 18,6%

In 1-year horizon: 121 223 144 398 60 611 326 232

Migration potential - 2011

2011Pop15-60: 4,617m Short term Long term Settlers Total

Over the next 5-6 months 1,0% 1,2% 2,4% 4,7%

Until the end of the year 1,0% 2,1% 2,0% 5,1%

Over the next 2-3 years 2,2% 3,6% 3,2% 9,1%

In the distant future 1,1% 1,6% 1,3% 4,0%

  5,3% 8,5% 9,0% 22,8%

In 1-year horizon 92 037 153 395 203 249 448 681

Migration potential - 2013

2013Pop15-60: 4,374m Short term Long term Settlers Total

Over the next 5-6 months 1.7% 1.9% 2.5% 6.1%

Until the end of the year 1.1% 1.7% 2.0% 4.9%

Over the next 2-3 years 1.3% 2.1% 1.6% 5.0%

In the distant future 1.0% 1.1% 1.5% 3.6%

  5.2% 6.8% 7.6% 19.6%

In 1-year horizon 125 396 157 864 197 050 480 310

Migration potential 2013 – regional dimension

In 1-year horizon Short term Long term Settlers Total% of pop.

15-60

North-West 13 259 17 338 11 219 41 816 9.2%

North-Central 10 870 25 002 22 828 58 700 11.9%

North-East 17 999 16 874 51 747 86 619 14.9%

South-West 45 770 31 687 31 687 109 144 8.2%

South-Central 23 565 49 373 31 419 104 357 11.8%

South-East 14 401 16 616 47 633 78 650 12.5%

Total 125 396 157 864 197 050 480 310 11.0%

Migration potential /gross %/

Migration potential /1-year horizon/

Migration potential (%)/total potential vs.1-year horizon of intentions/

Migration potential (numbers)/total potential vs.1-year horizon of intentions/

Migration potential - what happens?

• Stabilization of the migration potential of the

country at (relatively) high level?

• Increased desire for resettlement?

• “Short-term” or “circular” migration?

Main Destinations – 2007

 (in %) Short term Long term Settlers Total

Spain 10,3 19,8 32,4 17,4

Greece 19,1 14,8 8,8 15,5

Germany 11,8 11,1 14,7 12,1

United Kingdom 8,8 9,9 11,8 9,2

USA 4,4 6,2 11,8 6,8

Turkey 11,8 2,5 2,9 6,8

Italy 4,4 7,4   5,8

France 2,9 3,7   3,4

Cyprus 2,9 3,7   2,9

Belgium 2,9 2,5   2,4

( in %)  Short term Long term Settlers Total

United Kingdom 26,1 10,3 28,6 21,7

Germany 13,0 28,2 16,3 20,8

Spain 8,7 15,4 12,2 11,7

Greece 4,3 15,4 4,1 8,3

USA 8,7 5,1 6,1 5,8

France 4,3 2,6 4,1 5,0

Italy 8,7 5,1 2,0 4,2

Cyprus 4,3 2,6 4,1 3,3

Netherlands   2,6 2,0 2,5

Switzerland     6,1 2,5

Main Destinations – 2011

( in %)  Short term Long term Settlers Total

Germany 28.0 28.5 32.4 29.1

UK 19.6 21.2 13.9 18.0

Spain 7.5 7.3 9.2 7.8

Greece 7.5 5.8 8.7 7.2

Italy 10.3 8.8 2.9 6.3

USA 5.6 2.9 6.9 5.4

France 2.8 3.6 2.3 3.5

Belgium 3.7 4.4 1.2 3.0

Austria 0.9 1.5 5.2 2.8

Turkey 2.8 1.5 2.9 2.6

Main Destinations – 2013

Is there a change inpreferred destinations?

2007 2011 2013Spain United Kingdom GermanyGreece Germany United KingdomGermany Spain SpainUnited Kingdom Greece GreeceUSA USA ItalyTurkey France USAItaly Italy FranceFrance Cyprus BelgiumCyprus Netherlands AustriaBelgium Switzerland Turkey

% NW NC NE SW SC SE Total

Germany 34.1 28.1 34.5 22.9 31.9 26.0 29.1UK 6.8 21.1 13.1 21.1 21.3 19.2 18.0Spain 11.4 5.3 6.0 7.3 5.3 13.7 7.8Greece 11.4 3.5 4.8 7.3 1.1 17.8 7.2Italy 20.5 1.8 6.0 7.3 3.2 4.1 6.3USA 8.8 3.6 9.2 6.4 1.4 5.4France 2.3 7.0 2.4 2.8 5.3 1.4 3.5Belgium 8.8 2.4 3.7 3.2 3.0Austria 5.3 2.4 0.9 2.1 6.8 2.8Turkey 1.8 7.1 1.8 1.1 2.7 2.6Switzerland 1.8 6.0 2.8 2.1 1.4 2.6The Netherlands 3.6 2.8 2.1 1.7

Main Destinations 2013 / NUTS2

How important is for you each of the following reasons to go abroad?

Not at all

Not much

impor-tant

Neither nor

Impor-tant

Very impor-

tant

Living at higher standard 1.7 1.3 6.7 30.1 60.2Higher pay 1.2 1.5 3.9 17.2 76.1Better professional realization 8.3 9.7 17.9 23.5 40.7Provide support to my family / relatives in BG 6.5 6.6 11.8 26.1 49.0Provide desired education for me/my children 21.0 9.2 13.3 19.5 37.0Marriage / Partnership 66.9 12.0 10.0 5.9 5.2Family reunion (to join relatives) 49.8 14.0 9.9 13.3 13.0Follow a spouse/child/relative 53.4 9.6 10.3 13.8 12.8Obtain foreign citizenship 46.2 13.3 18.0 12.5 10.0Just do not want to live in BG any more 20.3 10.0 31.0 19.9 18.8

Why departing – 2013 / 1 /?

Why departing / 2 /?

• Short vs long-term economic reasons?

• Career and family reasons - to a lesser extent in 2011 compared with 2007 – but “rehabilitated” in 2013?

Why departing / 3 /?

Just do not want to live anymore in Bulgaria (in %) 

2007 2011 2013

Not important at all 25,5 12,3 20,3

Not very important 6,8 10,2 10,0Neither important nor

unimportant 27,7 23,9 31,0

Important 20,9 26,4 19,9

Very important 19,1 27,1 18,8

Total 100,0 100,0 100,0

Return and current migrants: Preliminary Estimates

2007 2011 2013

Relative share of households with

return migrants 10.1% 13.7% 14.5%

Number of households with

return migrants294 345 411 896 439 708

Return migrants per 1 hh 0.133 0.158 0.216

Number of return migrants 384 494 474 304 655 678

Relative share of households with

current migrants7.4% 7.1% 10.7%

Number of households withcurrent migrants

213 908 212 189 326 285

Current migrants per 1 hh 0.097 0.090 0.159

Number of current migrants 280 435 269 604 483 990

EARNINGS WHEN ABROAD

How much were approximately your monthly earnings during

your stay abroad ?2007 2011 2013

(preliminary)

Up to 400 EUR 18.6% 9.5% 0.5%Over 400 to 800 EUR 34.0% 33.6% 4.3%

Over 800 to 1200 EUR 31.4% 36.2% 22.2%

Over 1200 to 1600 EUR 8.3% 14.7% 19.1%Over 1600 to 2000 EUR 7.7% 6.0% 23.7%

Over 2000 EUR 30.1%Average (EUR): 810 897 1 606

Remittances – Preliminary Estimates

Annual average (last 5 years) 2007 2011 2013

Average monthly income (EUR) 810.3 896.6 1606.1

Average length of stay (months) 13.8 18.2 14.8Average annual transfer to

1 return migrant household (EUR)1 294 1 170 2 645

Average annual income abroad

of return migrants (million EUR)860 1 545 3 125

Share of remittances 44.3% 31.2% 37.2%Average annual remittances,

return migrants (million EUR)381 482 1 163

Average annual remittances,

current migrants (million EUR)277 248 579

Average annual remittances, total

(million EUR) 658 730 1 742

Savings and Remittances:

WHAT HAPPENS? • Increased average earnings of recent Bulgarian

returnees• Length of stay abroad, on average: 12–18 months• In 2011 the estimated remittances of Bulgarians

abroad (730 mln.EUR) are quite close to the official

(BNB: 620 million EUR, annual average, 2006-2010)• In 2013 – estimated remittances (1,742 mln.EUR) are

much higher (BNB: 740 mln.EUR, avg.2008-2012)

Attitudes toward international migration in Bulgaria

Many foreigners come to live and work in our country.What is your opinion on this?

2001  2007 2011

N % N % N %

They will help the development of the country 1773 6,9 298 10,9 112 9,3

Everyone has the right to live / work wherever he/she wishes 13208 51,7 1486 54,5 723 60,0

The presence of foreigners in the country should be limited 4421 17,3 383 14,1 162 13,5

Do not know 5486 21,5 536 19,7 178 14,8

No answers 654 2,6 22 0,8 29 2,4

Total 25542 100,0 2725 100,0 1204 100,0

Attitudes toward international migration in BG

Many foreigners come to live and work in our country. What is your opinion on this?

N% of

responses% of cases

They will help the development of the country 1155 16.6 30.6Everyone has the right to live / work wherever he/she wishes 3380 48.5 89.7The presence of foreigners in the country should be limited 2440 35.0 64.7

Total: 6975 100.0 185.0

2013 - Valid cases: 3770

Attitudes towards the international migration in Bulgaria – 2013

Everyone has the right to live / work wherever he/she wishes

The presence of foreigners in the country should be limited

TotalYes No

Non-mobile

(85.7%)

Yes 55.0 31.8 86.8

No 9.9 3.3 13.2

Total: 64.9 35.1 100.0

Return migrant

(14.3%)

Yes 44.4 44.3 88.7

No 7.8 3.5 11.3

Total: 52.3 47.7 100.0

CONFERENCE ON INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION14th February 2014

Economic Research Institute at BASAksakov str. No 3, Sofia

Thank you!

Благодаря!