Conference on Climate Change, Development and Official Statistics Seoul, 11-12 December 2008 Conference on Climate Change, Development and Official Statistics

Conference on Climate Change, Development Conference on Climate Change, Development and Official Statistics and Official Statistics

Seoul, 11-12 December 2008Seoul, 11-12 December 2008

Matthias BrucknerMatthias Bruckner

Division for Sustainable DevelopmentDivision for Sustainable Development

Department of Economic and Social AffairsDepartment of Economic and Social Affairs

United NationsUnited Nations

Climate Change and Indicators of Climate Change and Indicators of Sustainable DevelopmentSustainable Development

OutlineOutline

1.1. What are indicators of sustainable What are indicators of sustainable development? development?

2.2. Why are indicators of sustainable Why are indicators of sustainable development useful for measuring development useful for measuring climate change impacts and responses?climate change impacts and responses?

3.3. Which indicators are used by countries? Which indicators are used by countries? 4.4. Where are the main challenges for Where are the main challenges for

developing climate change indicators of developing climate change indicators of sustainable development?sustainable development?

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UN DESA – Division for Sustainable UN DESA – Division for Sustainable DevelopmentDevelopment

• Mission Statement: Mission Statement: To provide leadership and to be an authoritative source of expertise within the United Nations system on sustainable development

• DSD serves as the Secretariat of the DSD serves as the Secretariat of the Commission on Sustainable Development Commission on Sustainable Development (CSD)(CSD)

• CSD:CSD:– Functional Commission of the UN Economic Functional Commission of the UN Economic

and Social Council (ECOSOC)and Social Council (ECOSOC)– Attended by non-CSD member states, Attended by non-CSD member states,

UN system, NGOs and IGOsUN system, NGOs and IGOs– Includes high-level segment with Includes high-level segment with

60-70 ministers in attendance60-70 ministers in attendance• DSD conducts normative work, analytical DSD conducts normative work, analytical

work and technical cooperation work and technical cooperation

Sustainable Development Sustainable Development

• ““Sustainable development is development that meets Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own ability of future generations to meet their own needs.” (Brundtland Commission)needs.” (Brundtland Commission)

• Sustainable development integrates economic Sustainable development integrates economic development, social development and environmental development, social development and environmental protection.protection.

• Sustainable development has three overarching Sustainable development has three overarching objectives and essential requirements: objectives and essential requirements:

– Poverty reduction; Poverty reduction; – Changing unsustainable patterns of production and Changing unsustainable patterns of production and

consumption; consumption; – Protecting and managing the natural resource base Protecting and managing the natural resource base

of economic and social development. of economic and social development.

Indicators of Sustainable Indicators of Sustainable Development Development

• Indicators of sustainable development Indicators of sustainable development can have multiple functions:can have multiple functions:

– Simplifying, clarifying and making Simplifying, clarifying and making aggregated information and scientific aggregated information and scientific knowledge available to policy-makersknowledge available to policy-makers

– Measuring progress towards sustainable Measuring progress towards sustainable development goalsdevelopment goals

– Identifying critical issues for sustainable Identifying critical issues for sustainable developmentdevelopment

– Communicating the concept of sustainable Communicating the concept of sustainable development to policy-makers and the publicdevelopment to policy-makers and the public


• Indicators of sustainable development often Indicators of sustainable development often integrate economic, social and environmental integrate economic, social and environmental statistics, e.g.statistics, e.g.

– Resource efficiency indicators integrate economic Resource efficiency indicators integrate economic and environmental statistics;and environmental statistics;

– Gender employment indicators integrate economic Gender employment indicators integrate economic and social statistics;and social statistics;

– Air pollution indicator integrate social and Air pollution indicator integrate social and environmental statistics;environmental statistics;

– Indicator on sustainable resource management Indicator on sustainable resource management integrate all three dimensions, but are often not integrate all three dimensions, but are often not fully developed.fully developed.


• Indicators of sustainable development can use Indicators of sustainable development can use different frameworks.different frameworks.

– Frameworks determine what to measure and whyFrameworks determine what to measure and why– Policy-oriented frameworksPolicy-oriented frameworks

• Guaranteed policy relevance, flexible, buy-in form Guaranteed policy relevance, flexible, buy-in form stakeholdersstakeholders

• Prone to change with change in government, sometimes Prone to change with change in government, sometimes theoretically weak theoretically weak

– Theory-based frameworksTheory-based frameworks• More stable across time, more commonalities across More stable across time, more commonalities across

countries, less subject to political changecountries, less subject to political change• Need to agree on theory, validity and relevance of theories Need to agree on theory, validity and relevance of theories

varies across time and space, less buy-in from varies across time and space, less buy-in from stakeholders, policy relevance can be lowstakeholders, policy relevance can be low

• Extended capital theory advocated by some (see e.g. Extended capital theory advocated by some (see e.g. Joint Joint ECE/OECD/Eurostat Working Group on Statistics for ECE/OECD/Eurostat Working Group on Statistics for Sustainable Development)Sustainable Development)

– Other frameworks: Indices (theory-based or theory-Other frameworks: Indices (theory-based or theory-free), Pressure-state-response frameworksfree), Pressure-state-response frameworks


• Many countries across the world utilize Many countries across the world utilize indicators of sustainable development, indicators of sustainable development, especially forespecially for

– Monitoring progress of their national Monitoring progress of their national sustainable development strategies; sustainable development strategies;

– Assessing state of sustainable development.Assessing state of sustainable development.• UN DESA publishes a set of Indicators of UN DESA publishes a set of Indicators of

Sustainable Development as reference for Sustainable Development as reference for countries to develop national indicatorscountries to develop national indicators

– Mandated by the United Nations Commission Mandated by the United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development in 1995; on Sustainable Development in 1995;

– Third edition released in late 2007.Third edition released in late 2007.


• Detailed methodology Detailed methodology sheets for each indicator sheets for each indicator available online.available online.

• Methodology sheets will Methodology sheets will be updated regularly.be updated regularly.

• http://www.un.org/esa/http://www.un.org/esa/sustdev/natlinfo/sustdev/natlinfo/indicators/isd.htmindicators/isd.htm


• Role of official statistics in national indicator Role of official statistics in national indicator setssets– Provision of high-quality data (data collection Provision of high-quality data (data collection

and integration) and integration) – Common types and sources of data neededCommon types and sources of data needed

– National accountsNational accounts– CensusesCensuses– Household and other surveysHousehold and other surveys– Administrative recordsAdministrative records– Estimations based on agreed standards;Estimations based on agreed standards;

– Provision of statistical methodologies and Provision of statistical methodologies and standards;standards;

– In some countries, official statistics have a In some countries, official statistics have a lead role in analysing and reporting of lead role in analysing and reporting of indicatorsindicators

Benefits of indicators of sustainable Benefits of indicators of sustainable development for climate change development for climate change

• Climate change is a sustainable development Climate change is a sustainable development issue, not just an environmental concernissue, not just an environmental concern

– Climate change threatens to erase progress made Climate change threatens to erase progress made in achieving sustainable development goals, in achieving sustainable development goals, including the Millennium Development Goals.including the Millennium Development Goals.

– Greenhouse gas emissions depend on economic Greenhouse gas emissions depend on economic and technological pathways.and technological pathways.

– Current emissions impact on the living conditions of Current emissions impact on the living conditions of future generations.future generations.

– Poor and vulnerable countries are expected to face Poor and vulnerable countries are expected to face the greatest burden of climate change, while the greatest burden of climate change, while having contributed the least to the problem.having contributed the least to the problem.

Indicators of sustainable development can be Indicators of sustainable development can be informative for climate change.informative for climate change.


• Existing sustainable development indicator sets are a Existing sustainable development indicator sets are a useful point of departure for the derivation of climate useful point of departure for the derivation of climate change indicators. change indicators.

– Recognizes the important linkages between climate Recognizes the important linkages between climate change and other sustainable development issues, e.g. change and other sustainable development issues, e.g.

• Reducing emissions from combustion of (imported) Reducing emissions from combustion of (imported) fossil fuels can increase energy security.fossil fuels can increase energy security.

• Improved disaster risk management helps to address Improved disaster risk management helps to address not only climate related events (droughts, floods,…), not only climate related events (droughts, floods,…), but also non-climate related ones (earthquakes, but also non-climate related ones (earthquakes, volcanoes)volcanoes)

• Preserving forests to maintain natural capital and to Preserving forests to maintain natural capital and to sustain livelihoods also increases carbon absorption. sustain livelihoods also increases carbon absorption.

Benefits of indicators of sustainable Benefits of indicators of sustainable development for climate change development for climate change • Linking climate change indicators to sustainable development indicators increases Linking climate change indicators to sustainable development indicators increases

coherence among indicator sets.coherence among indicator sets.– This avoids risk of sending ‘mixed’ messages.This avoids risk of sending ‘mixed’ messages.– Coherence can further be increased by incorporating existing issue-specific sets of Coherence can further be increased by incorporating existing issue-specific sets of

sustainable development indicators, for examplesustainable development indicators, for example

•Energy Indicators of Sustainable DevelopmentEnergy Indicators of Sustainable Development

•Biodiversity Indicators.Biodiversity Indicators.– Disaggregating general indicators of sustainable development may make them Disaggregating general indicators of sustainable development may make them

climate change relevant.climate change relevant.

• It also helps to avoid duplication of efforts.It also helps to avoid duplication of efforts.

• It may reduce reporting burden for agencies.It may reduce reporting burden for agencies.


• While using national sets of indicators of sustainable development as basis for climate While using national sets of indicators of sustainable development as basis for climate change indicators, other processes should be integratedchange indicators, other processes should be integrated– International processes under the UNFCCCInternational processes under the UNFCCC

• Negotiations related to ‘measurable, reportable and verifiable’ commitments and actions on Negotiations related to ‘measurable, reportable and verifiable’ commitments and actions on mitigation, financing, technology and capacity-buildingmitigation, financing, technology and capacity-building

• Performance indicators on technology transferPerformance indicators on technology transfer

• Reduced emissions form deforestation and forest degradationReduced emissions form deforestation and forest degradation

– National climate strategies and action plans National climate strategies and action plans – Progress on System of Environmental-Economic AccountingProgress on System of Environmental-Economic Accounting– Climate change-related work on CSD indicatorsClimate change-related work on CSD indicators

• Meeting held in New York in October 2008, see Meeting held in New York in October 2008, see http://www.un.org/esa/sustdev/natlinfo/indicators/15Oct_2008/egm.htmhttp://www.un.org/esa/sustdev/natlinfo/indicators/15Oct_2008/egm.htm

Indicators used at the national levelIndicators used at the national level • Many indicators used by countries to monitor their Many indicators used by countries to monitor their

national sustainable development strategies (NSDS) national sustainable development strategies (NSDS) relate to climate change.relate to climate change.

– Climate change and development are not fundamentally new Climate change and development are not fundamentally new issues. issues.

• There are different possibilities to determine which There are different possibilities to determine which indicators of sustainable development are climate indicators of sustainable development are climate change related.change related.

– Indicators on issues that the strategy explicitly identify as Indicators on issues that the strategy explicitly identify as being linked to climate change (‘Revealed preference’).being linked to climate change (‘Revealed preference’).

– Indicators on issues that other countries identified as climate Indicators on issues that other countries identified as climate change relevant in their strategies. change relevant in their strategies.

– Indicators on issues that experts identified as climate change Indicators on issues that experts identified as climate change related, for example in the IPCC reports.related, for example in the IPCC reports.

• Following examples are based on an on-going study by Following examples are based on an on-going study by UN DESAUN DESA

– The study uses indicator sets of 9 countriesThe study uses indicator sets of 9 countries– Number of indicators varies across countries, so number of Number of indicators varies across countries, so number of

indicator sis no indication of emphasis on climate change in indicator sis no indication of emphasis on climate change in NSDSNSDS

Indicators used at the national levelIndicators used at the national levelAustralia – Climate change mitigationAustralia – Climate change mitigation

Policy issue in NSDS

Indicator Type of reference

EnergyRenewable energy use as a proportion of total

Own NSDS

Energy Total renewable and non-renewable energy use

Own NSDS

Climate change

Total net greenhouse gas emissions Own NSDS

Forests Total area of all forest type Other NSDS

Air qualityNumber of occasions where concentrations of pollutants exceeded NEPM standards for ambient air quality in major urban areas

Expert

Air quality Total SOx, NOx and particulate emissions Expert

Indicators used at the national levelIndicators used at the national levelAustralia – Climate change adaptationAustralia – Climate change adaptation


IndicatorType of reference

BiodiversityNumber of extinct, endangered and vulnerable species

Other NSDS

BiodiversityNumber of endangered ecological communities

Other NSDS

Industrial performance

Real GDP per capita Other NSDS

Water management

Surface water units within 70% of sustainable yield

Other NSDS

WaterManagement

Ground water management units within 70% of sustainable yield

Other NSDS

Indicators used at the national levelIndicators used at the national levelIndia – Climate change mitigationIndia – Climate change mitigation

Policy issue in NSDS IndicatorType of reference

Environment and climate change

GHG emissions per capita Own NSDS


Energy intensity per unit of GDP Own NSDS


Forest and tree cover Own NSDS


Air quality in major issues Expert

Indicators used at the national levelIndicators used at the national levelIndia – Climate change adaptationIndia – Climate change adaptation


Income and poverty

Average GDP growth Own NSDS

Income and poverty

Agricultural GDP growth rate Own NSDS

Indicators used at the national levelIndicators used at the national levelRepublic of Korea – Climate change mitigation IRepublic of Korea – Climate change mitigation I


Climate change Emissions of GHGs Own NSDS

Climate change Emissions of GHGs per person Own NSDS

Climate change Emissions of GHGs per GDP Own NSDS

Forests Forest area as a percent of land Own NSDS

Forests Wood harvesting intensity Own NSDS

WasteGeneration of industrial and municipal solid waste

Own NSDS

Waste Waste recycling and reuse Own NSDS

Indicators used at the national levelIndicators used at the national levelRepublic of Korea – Climate change mitigation IIRepublic of Korea – Climate change mitigation II


IndicatorType of reference

Energy useAnnual energy consumption of renewable energy sources

Own NSDS

Energy useShare of consumption of renewable energy sources

Own NSDS

Energy use Energy use per GDP (TOE/1000$) Own NSDS

Material useIntensity of material use (per GDP 1000$)

Other NSDS

Transportation Transportation shares per modal split Other NSDS

AgricultureProportion ration of environmentally friendly agriculture

Other NSDS

Agriculture Use of fertilizer Expert

Ozone layer Consumption of ODS Expert

Air quality Air pollution in metropolitan areas Expert

Indicators used at the national levelIndicators used at the national levelRepublic of Korea – Climate change adaptationRepublic of Korea – Climate change adaptation


DisasterHuman life and economic loss caused by natural disaster

Own NSDS

Economic performance

GDP per capita Other NSDS

EcosystemsNumber of species in danger of extinction

Other NSDS

Ecosystems Protected area in % of total area Other NSDS

Water quantityAnnual withdrawal of ground and surface water

Expert

Indicators used at the national levelIndicators used at the national levelUnited Kingdom – Climate change mitigation IUnited Kingdom – Climate change mitigation I


GHG emissionsGHG and CO2 emissions, and CO2 emissions associated with UK consumption

Own NSDS

GHG emissionsCO2 emissions from industry, domestic (residential), transport sectors

Own NSDS

GHG emissionsGHG emissions from UK-based international aviation and shipping fuel bunkers

Own NSDS

Electricity generation

Renewable electricity generated as a percentage of total electricity

Own NSDS

Electricity generation

Electricity generated, CO2, NOx and SO2 emissions by electricity generators and GDP

Own NSDS

Indicators used at the national levelIndicators used at the national levelUnited Kingdom – Climate change mitigation IIUnited Kingdom – Climate change mitigation II


CO2 and other emissions

Domestic CO2 emissions, domestic energy consumption and household spending

Own NSDS


Road transport (CO2, NOx, PM10 emissions and Gross Domestic Product)

Own NSDS


Private car CO2 emissions, car-kilometres and household spending

Own NSDS


Heavy Goods Vehicle (HGV) CO2 emissions, kilometres, tonnes and GDP

Own NSDS


Manufacturing sector CO2, NOx, SO2, PM10 emissions and output

Own NSDS


Service sector CO2 , NOx emissions and output

Own NSDS


Public sector CO2 , NOx emissions and output

Own NSDS

Indicators used at the national levelIndicators used at the national levelUnited Kingdom – Climate change mitigation IIIUnited Kingdom – Climate change mitigation III


Energy supplyUK indigenous energy production and gross inland energy consumption

Other NSDS

Resource useDomestic Material Consumption and GDP

Other NSDS

AgricultureFertiliser input, farmland bird population, ammonia and methane emissions and output

Other NSDS

Land use (contextual)

Area covered by agriculture, woodland, water or river, urban

Other NSDS

Mobility(a) Number of trips per person by mode (b) Distance traveled per person per year by broad trip purpose

Other NSDS

Waste Waste arisings per disposal Other NSDS

Indicators used at the national levelIndicators used at the national levelUnited Kingdom – Climate change adaptationUnited Kingdom – Climate change adaptation


Biodiversity conservation

(a) Priority species status (b) priority habitat status

Other NSDS

Bird populations Bird population indices (a) farmland birds (b) woodland birds (c) coastal birds (d) wintering wetland birds

Expert

Water resource use

Total abstractions from non-tidal surface and ground water, leakage losses and GDP

Expert

Water stressImpacts of water shortages (spatial disaggregation)

Expert

FloodingNumber of properties in areas at risk of flooding

Expert

Indicators used at the national levelIndicators used at the national levelOther countries – Climate change mitigationOther countries – Climate change mitigation

Policy issue in NSDS Indicator Country

GHG emissions CO2 intensity of energy consumption Finland

Land useIncrease in land use for housing and transport

Germany

MobilityIntensity of passenger transport (km/GDP)

Germany

Nutrition Nitrogen surplus in farming Germany

Clean energyContribution of biofuels to fuel consumption

Spain

Energy intensive sectors

Average CO2 emissions in new vehicles

Spain

Carbon sinks Agricultural land used as carbon sink Spain

Natural resource management

Percentage of forest land covered by sustainable forest management plans

Uganda

Indicators used at the national levelIndicators used at the national levelOther countries – Climate change adaptationOther countries – Climate change adaptation


Coastal zones Population density in coastal provinces

Morocco

Soil, vegetation and desertification

Land affected by soil erosion, salination and desertification

Morocco

Hydrological resources

Drought risk index Spain

Indicators used at the national levelIndicators used at the national levelOther countries – Climate change financing Other countries – Climate change financing


Global responsibility

Development aid targeted at the combating of climate change and at the enhancement of health and education

Finland

Climate change market instruments

Government purchase of Certified Emission Reductions (CER)

Spain

Main challengesMain challenges

• Defining the scope of climate change indicators Defining the scope of climate change indicators of sustainable developmentof sustainable development

– Indicators expressing significant linkages should Indicators expressing significant linkages should probably be included.probably be included.• To remain focused, indicators expressing indirect linkages To remain focused, indicators expressing indirect linkages

could be excluded.could be excluded.

– Additional specific climate change indicators may be Additional specific climate change indicators may be usefuluseful• E.g. climate indicators, CO2 intensity of fuels, CO2 emissions E.g. climate indicators, CO2 intensity of fuels, CO2 emissions

from policy relevant sources such as carsfrom policy relevant sources such as cars

– Definitions of climate change adaptation are often Definitions of climate change adaptation are often vague.vague.• People and economies adapt to a multiple factors, climate People and economies adapt to a multiple factors, climate

change being one of them. change being one of them. • If “development is the best form of adaptation”, are all If “development is the best form of adaptation”, are all

development indicators climate change related?development indicators climate change related?


• Statistical classifications and methodologies for indicators Statistical classifications and methodologies for indicators in some important domains remain incompletein some important domains remain incomplete

– Land cover, land use and land degradation.Land cover, land use and land degradation.• Key area for both mitigation and adaptationKey area for both mitigation and adaptation

– Ecosystem servicesEcosystem services– Spatial classifications for capturing spatially Spatial classifications for capturing spatially

differentiated climate change impactsdifferentiated climate change impacts– Technology transferTechnology transfer

• Lack of common definitions of climate change related Lack of common definitions of climate change related technologiestechnologies

• Technology can be transferred through many modes (trade in Technology can be transferred through many modes (trade in goods, trade in services, inward foreign direct investment, goods, trade in services, inward foreign direct investment, outward foreign direct investment)outward foreign direct investment)

• Transfer can be at commercial or at preferential terms. Transfer can be at commercial or at preferential terms.


• Time lag between climate change measures Time lag between climate change measures and climate change impact and climate change impact

– Measures on climate change mitigation and Measures on climate change mitigation and adaptation are in response to future climate adaptation are in response to future climate changes.changes.

– Climate change impacts are uncertainClimate change impacts are uncertain• Extreme events can be devastating, but cannot be ignored Extreme events can be devastating, but cannot be ignored

(‘Fat-tailed’ distribution) (‘Fat-tailed’ distribution)

• Demand for indicators to a large extent Demand for indicators to a large extent determined by outcome of current climate determined by outcome of current climate change negotiations.change negotiations.

– Details of outcome currently unknown.Details of outcome currently unknown.

Thank Thank YouYou

ContactContact: Matthias BrucknerMatthias Bruckner Division for Sustainable DevelopmentDivision for Sustainable Development

Department of Economic and Social AffairsDepartment of Economic and Social Affairs United NationsUnited Nations

email: email: [email protected] http://www.un.org/esa/sustdev/index.htmlhttp://www.un.org/esa/sustdev/index.html

mailto:[email protected]

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Conference on Climate Change, Development and Official Statistics Seoul, 11-12 December 2008 Conference on Climate Change, Development and Official Statistics