Conference History

1. Contractual Deliverable for BPA YKFP Projects

2. Expanded to Include other Basin Science Programs (BOR, NOAA, USF&WS, CWU)

3. Relationships of How Management Decisions are Influenced by Science

4. Expanded Habitat Programs - Split Sessions

5. YBF&WRB - Subbasin Plans and Recovery Actions

YKFP Deliverables

Updates on the Cle Elum Spring Chinook Supplementation Program

– Homing– Distribution– Genetics– Reproductive Success– Precocialism– Domestication– Non-Target Taxa– Predation by Birds and Fish

Bird Predation

Predator or Protector?

Spring Chinook Run Forecast

• Columbia Basin Management Decisions are Based on Annual Run Predictions

• Harvest Regulations above and below Bonneville Dam

• Harvest Allocation for Treaty and Non-treaty Fishers

• Science from Yakima Basin may Assist in Refining the Predictor Model

050

100150200250300350400450

Forecast Return

Forecasted vs Actual Returns of Col. R. Spring Chinook, 1985 - Present

Tho

usan

ds o

f F

ish

Data Source: Columbia River Joint Staff Report, Jan. 26, 2009

http://wdfw.wa.gov/fish/crc/crcindex.htm

• Why has the traditional jack predictor resulted in increased divergence between

forecasted and actual returns in recent years?

• Can we correct for this?

Number of Age-3 PIT Detections at Bonn. Dam for CESRF* Spring Chinook by brood year (BY06 detections as of 6/10/09)

0

50

100

150

200

250

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Brood Year

Ag

e-3

Det

ecti

on

s

* CESRF = Cle Elum Supplementation and Research Facility

http://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/research/divisions/fed/oeip/g-forecast.cfm

Ocean Conditions when Juveniles Arrive

R2 = 0.6766

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0

NOAA Ocean Conditions Rank

Act

ual

Ru

n s

ize

(th

ou

san

ds

of

fish

)

There is a strong relationship between the NOAA Ocean Condition rank at

juvenile entry and actual Adult Returns

Jacks (as sampled at Roza Dam/Yakima R.) were much bigger in 2008 than in

prior years

Post-eye Lengths of Jacks at Roza Dam

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58

POH length (cm)

Nu

mb

er o

f Ja

cks

2000

2001

2008

2007

Adjusting the predictor model for these two variables results in much greater

forecast accuracy for years since 2001

Performance of Model Using Jacks, Jack POH length, and NOAA Ocean Rank to predict Col. R. Mth Run Size (model uses 2001-2009 adult/2000-2008 jack/1999-2007

juvenile migration year ocean data)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Actual Predicted Old Model

Percentage of Age-3 PIT Detections at Bonn. Dam per released PIT-Tagged Yakima wild and CESRF* Spring Chinook by brood

year (BY06 detections as of 6/10/09)

0.00%0.10%0.20%0.30%0.40%0.50%0.60%0.70%

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Brood Year

% A

ge

-3 D

ete

cti

on

s

pe

r P

ITs

Re

lea

se

d

Wild CESRF

* CESRF = Cle Elum Supplementation and Research Facility

YKFP Deliverables

Updates on the Other Salmon Enhancement– Coho Reintroduction– Fall Chinook Supplementation– Summer Chinook Reintroduction– Steelhead Monitoring

Other Salmonid Programs

Updates on the Other Programs– Bull Trout Status and Genetics– Steelhead Kelt Reconditioning– Steelhead Population Monitoring– Sockeye Reintroduction

Wildlife Programs

Updates on the Other Programs– Wildlife and I-90 Construction– Elk and Agriculture– Spotted Owls– Cougars

Habitat Programs– Climate Change and water– Water Storage– Flow Issues – Water Quality– Nutrients– Cottonwood Restoration– Groundwater Issues– Large Woody Replenishment– Floods– Tributary Access Panel

Welcome To Central Washington University and the Yakima Basin Science

and Management Conference

Overview of Habitat ActivitiesAlex Conley YBFWRB

Keynote SpeakerRob Walton

Assistant Regional Administratorfor Salmon Recovery

NOAA Fisheries