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Conducting an Environmental ScanBest Practices for Researching your
Institution’s Key External (and Internal) Trends
SACCR ConferenceFebruary 2018
Christine Teach
Institutional Research Analyst
Elizabeth Hamrick
Assessment and Accreditation Specialist
22
South Piedmont Community College• Newest of the 58 colleges in the NC Community College System
• Service area – Anson and Union Counties in south-central NC (border Charlotte/Mecklenburg County)
• 4 campuses:oL.L. Polk Campus (Anson County)oLockhart–Taylor Center (Anson County)oOld Charlotte Highway Campus (Union County)oTyson Family Center for Technology (Union County)
• CU & CE Enrollment (2016-17) – 9,719 (3,879 CU)
• 90 program offerings
33
Environmental Scanning Defined• Environmental scanning is the process of gathering data and information on trends and events and their relationships within an organization's internal and external environments
• The basic purpose of environmental scanning is to help management determine the future direction of the organization
• An environmental scan is not exhaustive, but it is objective. Should focus on what the data actually tells you, not what you think it should tell you
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Uses of an Environmental Scan• Detect technical, economic, social, and political trends and events important to the institution
• Define the potential threats, opportunities, or challenges for the institution implied by those trends and events
• Promote a future orientation in the thinking of management and staff
• Inform strategic planning
55
Background• First SPCC Environmental Scan was conducted in 2012
• The motive for the 2017 scan was the impending strategic planning processoNew president with great respect for using information and data to make decisions
oAssessment of SPCC’s environment
o Inform and guide strategic planning and decision making to respond efficiently and appropriately to the needs of the SPCC community
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Preparing for Strategic Plan Development
Step 1 Step 2 Step 3
Environmental Scan Listening Sessions for employees,
students, community
Develop goals, strategies,
operational tasks, KPIs
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Getting Started• Read through 2012 Environmental Scan
• Researched examples from other colleges
• Looked for themes, topics, data sources, & organization
• Asked ourselves:oGiven our culture and service area, what would the President and Senior Leadership Team (SLT) find most important?
oWhat is most critical to the new strategic plan?
o Is it important to the future of the college over the next 5 years? Is it actionable?
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Process• Identified four key environmental factors (and subthemes):
oDemographic
oEconomic
oLearning
oSocial
• Began pulling data/information sources
• Established a time range for data collectionoUse the most recent data available
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Process• Set a template for document and graphics
oFont style
oColor scheme
oHeaders
oFigure size and labeling
• Documentation standardsoEstablished citation format
• Divided up sectionsoDemographics - Elizabeth
oEconomic - Christine
oLearning & Social – joint effort
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Timeline
Due Date Task Completed
May 4, 2017 Established scope of work
June 5, 2017 Input on scope of work from President & SLT
June 29, 2017 Data collected, sections drafted, begin review
July 13, 2017 Section review complete
July 25, 2017 Draft Report and Executive Summary sent to President & SLT
August 11, 2017 Feedback due from President & SLT
August 25, 2017 Finalized and sent to printers
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Demographics
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Demographics• First: Defined South Piedmont’s Service Area
oTwo counties with stark differences
oSeparated data by county (where feasible)
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Demographics• Population counts
oUnion County growth and Anson County decline
• Population by municipality
• Population projections through 2030oPopulation counts
oPopulation density per square mile
oAge – age ranges and median age
oEthnicity
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Demographics• Enrollment by county of residence
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Demographics• Service area population compared to enrollment:
oGender
oEthnicity
oVeterans
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Demographics• Birth rate
oNorth Carolina vs. United States
• Mobility oSame residence, moved within same county, state, abroad
• Migrationo% migrating to NC from a different state
• NativityoNative born v. foreign born
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Demographics• Poverty
oPercent of service area in poverty
oComparison to Pell grant recipients
• Median household incomeoSignificant differences between service area counties
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Demographics Data Sources • US Census Bureau
oPopulation Estimates
oSmall Area Income and Poverty Estimates
oAmerican Community Survey
• North Carolina Office of State Budget and ManagementoPopulation projections
• North Carolina State Center for Health Statistics
• Centers for Disease Control & Prevention
• Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS)
• SPCC Data Warehouse
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Lessons Learned• Establish timeframe for data collection
oReasonably recent dataoSet a cutoff for updating data
• Use the data that you already have and supplement where neededoFor example - SPCC data warehouse, IPEDS
• Data sources will determine what comparisons to useoCounty, service area, state level
• Only use data that is most important and relevant to your needs
• Helpful to keep data stored by topic in spreadsheet
2020
Economic
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Median Household Income by Zip Code, 2015
Source: US Census Bureau American Community Survey
Economic• Describe unit of analysis and provide context
o% work outside county
oAverage travel time to work
oState economic development tiers (ranking system)
oMedian household income by zip code for service area
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Economic• Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – MSA, state, US
o Past ten years, past one year, and projections
• Labor Forceo Total employed, ten year projection – State, USo Employed and projection by education required – State
• Unemployment Rateo Average annual by county, MSA, state, USo County ranking in the state/regiono Included 10 years to capture recession data
• Taxeso Included because of significant changes in corporate and personal income taxes in the state over the last four years
o Changes in the law and projected financial impact
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Economic• Employment by industry sector (2-digit NAICS code)
o% distribution by county, service area, state
• Concentration of industriesoLocation quotient (LQ) by county, service area
Location quotient equal to 1 has the same proportion of employment as in a comparison group (used the US)
Location quotient equal to 2 has twice as much employment as comparison group
Rural areas tend to have fewer industries and higher LQ
LQ of 1.25 defined as a competitive advantage in many reports
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Economic• Industry growth
o Average annual increase and total number of jobs created by county, service area, state
o Past four years, projection over next 10 years
o Replacement versus growth demand
• Industry wageso Average annual wages by county, service area
oOne year change in wages
Labor Force Demand by Industry for SPCC Service Area, 2016-2026
Source: Adapted from JobsEQ Economic Overview, Chmura Economics & Analytics
4,1123,673
2,981
2,791
2,772
2,104
1,9301,500
1,427
1,3941,069
822
686473
425
235
175
46
43
4
-500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500
Retail Trade
Construction
Manufacturing
Accomm & Food Service
Health Care
Education
Administrative Services
Other Services
Wholesale Trade
Professional Services
Public Administration
Transportation
Agriculture
Arts & Entertainment
Finance & Insurance
Real Estate
Information
Utilities
Management
MiningReplacement Growth
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Economic• Industry analysis
oReviewed examples of analysis used by other reputable sources and identified commonalities
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Economic• Industry analysis
oCombine industry growth, concentration, size, and wages
o Identify mature, growth, and emerging industries in the service area
Industry Analysis for SPCC Service Area, 2016
Source: Data from JobsEQ Economic Overview, Chmura Economics & Analytics
Note: The size of each symbol corresponds to 2016 employment in the industry. The wages shown are average annual wages for 2016. The low category is less than $40,000 and the middle category is less than $55,000.
Emerging
Industry
Growth
Industry
Mature
Industry
Summary of Industry Analysis for SPCC Service Area, 2016
Mature Industries
* Strong concentration (LQ > 1.25) Manufacturing
* Declining or low employment growth
* Large employment (> 10% of labor force)
Growth Industries
* High concentration (LQ > 1.25) Construction
* High employment growth (> 1% annually)
Emerging Industries
* Low concentration (LQ < 1.25) Health Care
* High employment growth (> 1% annually) Professional Services
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Economic• Manufacturing/Construction/Health Care/Professional Services Industries (3-digit NAICS code)oMore refinement of NAICS codes will not be possible with smaller populations, for 3-digit NAICS code: 58% of our rural county employment vs. 96% of urban county/100% of state
o Illustrates what the industry means in more descriptive terms 2-digit= Manufacturing
3-digit= Chemical Manufacturing
4-digit= Paint, Coating, and Adhesive Manufacturing
o Included: Employment distribution and projections
Average weekly wage, five year change in wages
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Economic• Similar information presented by occupation
o Employment by Occupation – distribution, growtho Occupational concentration – location quotiento Occupational wages – average annual
• Top 25 employers in service area- industry, employment size
• Employer Needs Survey- from NC Department of Commerce
• Future Developmento Other events that are projected to impact the local economyo Activity and emphasis of state and local economic development groupso Strengths that have historically attracted businesses to the area (infrastructure, quality of life) as well as weaknesses
o New construction
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Economic Data Sources• Local economic development groups/regional partnerships
o Check these sources first, as institutional partners may already have data or analysis available to share
• US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
• US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
• NC Department of Commerce
• Barings/UNC Charlotte economic forecasts
• NC Department of Revenue- tax information
• NC Department of Transportation- construction projects
• NC General Assembly Fiscal Research Division- projected financial impact of legislation
• County/city/economic development group master plan
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Lessons Learned• Verify legitimacy of data sources
o Some sources providing economic indicator data are politically affiliated and have had their economic projections questioned
• Verify information provided by local economic development groups for marketing purposeso Data may be outdated or overstated
• Use the data to determine what industries to concentrate ono Historical major industries and those promoted by local economic development groups may not be supported by data
• Keep sources and references organized
• Save more data and references than you think you will need
• Allow extra time for economic data analysis if this is not your area of expertise
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Learning
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Learning• Educational Attainment
oComparison of attainment between two counties
oLess than high school, high school graduate, some college no degree, associate’s degree, bachelor’s degree, graduate or professional degree
oHighlighted/drew attention to the total without Associate’s degree or higher Primary target market for South Piedmont
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Learning• High School Data
oHigh school average daily membership
oEconomically disadvantaged students Percent of free or reduced lunch applicants
oACT Scores English, math, reading, and science test areas
Comparison to NC benchmarks
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Learning• High School Data
oGraduation rates Limited English Proficient
Projections (state-level)
oHigh school dropout rates
oHigh school graduate intentions Survey on post-graduate plans
• Home schools & non-public schools (charter schools)oServe as additional recruitment opportunities
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Learning• Early College enrollment
oAccelerated program combining 4 years of high school and 2 years of college transfer courses
oOffered in both service area counties
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Learning• Career & College Promise enrollmentoNC’s dual enrollment program for high school students
oEarn credits for college transfer or technical careers
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Learning• SPCC Data
oAnnual Enrollment & Full-Time Equivalent (FTE)
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Learning• SPCC Data
oCurriculum enrollment by student load & age
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Learning• SPCC Data
oEnrollment Trends: By Credential
By Curriculum Program
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Learning• SPCC Data
oEnrollment Trends: Distance learning
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Learning• SPCC Data
oContinuing Education
oApprenticeships
oCorrectional Institutions 30% of Continuing Education FTE
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Learning• IPEDS Data
o150% graduation rate
oTransfer rate
oRetention rate Fall-to-Fall
Part-time v. Full-time
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Learning• Zip Code Analysis
oNC Community College enrollment data by zip code
oAnson & Union county zip codes Enrollment at any NC community college
Enrollment at South Piedmont
Enrollment at competitor colleges: Central Piedmont, Richmond, Stanly
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Learning
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Learning
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Learning
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Learning• South Piedmont Student Perceptions and Satisfaction
oRuffalo Noel Levitz Student Satisfaction Inventory (SSI) Administered at Spring 2017 graduation fair
oPulled questions focusing on: First choice institution
Sense of belonging
Enjoyable experience
SPCC reputation
Strength: Academic advisor knowledgeable about program requirements
Weakness: Class scheduling
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Learning• National Projections and Perceptions
oProjections: 2-year public institution enrollment, Associate’s degree earners
oOn Second Thought: US Adults Reflect on Their Education Decisions Gallup & Strada Education Network survey on educational decisions and perceptions
Survey respondents were asked if they could do it all over again, would they still pursue the same level of education, same area of study, and attend the same institution
51% of respondents would change at least one of these education decisions
54% of respondents with an associate’s degree would change at least one of these education decisions
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Learning Data Sources• NC Departments of Public Instruction, Administration, Public Safety
• US Census Bureau – American Community Survey
• Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS)
• National Center for Education Statistics
• SPCC Data Warehouse
• NC Community College System Annual Reports
• Websites and strategic plans of competitors
• On Second Thought: US Adults Reflect on Their Education Decisions, 2017 Gallup-Strada Education Network Report
• Ruffalo Noel-Levitz Survey – Student Satisfaction Inventory
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Lessons Learned• Check your state department of instruction for data
• Check your community college system office for data
• Use the data, analysis, and reports that you already have and supplement where neededoEnrollment data, surveys. Be sure to include all academic levels (i.e. curriculum, continuing ed., high school, etc.)
• Use data to address preconceived perceptions that may or may not be accurate
• Data sources will determine what comparisons to useoService area, state, institutional level
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Social
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Social• Economic impact of the college
• State and Local Funding
o Educational appropriations per FTE
o Percentage of revenue from tuition
o State education spending and
spending per FTE
o Source of funding
o County operational and capital
funding
o State and local bond funds
North Carolina Public FTE Enrollment and Educational Appropriations Per FTE, Fiscal Year 1991-2016
Source: State Higher Education Executive Officers – State Higher Education Finance
5353
Social• Tuition
oTuition and fees vs.
2-year public average
oCost of attendance vs.
2-year public average,
local competitors
Cost of Attendance at Public Two-Year Colleges and
SPCC, 2016-2017
Source: College Board Trends in College Pricing 2016 and SPCC Financial Aid
Note: Full-Time In-State Cost of Attendance
$2,270
$1,760
$1,390
$8,060
$3,520
$3,268
$2,600
$1,325
$5,559
$1,873
Other Expenses
Transportation
Books and Supplies
Room and Board
Tuition and Fees
SPCC
Public Two-Year Colleges
5454
Social• Financial Aid
oNational financial aid expenditures
oState financial aid expenditures
oPercent receiving financial aid, Pell grant
oState grant aid per UG FTE
oFAFSA completions vs enrollment
oTotal financial aid dollars awarded by the college
SPCC Financial Aid Awarded, Transmitted, and Students Awarded from All Sources
Source: Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System and SPCC Financial Aid
$4.9 $4.4 $4.2 $3.9$3.3 $2.9
$1.9$4.2
$4.0
$1.9
$1.5$1.5
1,377
1,690 1,701
1,260
1,069944
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
$9
$10
2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016
Nu
mb
er o
f S
tuden
t A
war
ded
Fin
anci
al A
id i
n $
Mil
lions
FA Transmitted FA Awarded, but Not Transmitted Students Awarded
5555
Social• Accountability
oAccreditationoState performance measures
oVoluntary reporting systems
• TechnologyoComputer and internet access by countyo Institutional student surveys & Noel-Levitz Student Satisfaction Inventory (SSI)
oNational surveys – top higher education campus priorities for information technology
5656
Social• Generation Z
oNational study – characteristics, education plans
• Social MediaoNational studies – usage statistics by different demographic groups
• Leadership Changeso Institutional turnover (leadership and staff)oHigher education turnover (system office, other colleges)oPolitical turnover (national and state legislators)
• Legislative ChangesoNational and state policy proposals impacting the collegeoFor example: Changes in the FAFSA, free college tuition, Pell grant, Perkins/apprenticeship
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Social• Include other indicators unique to your college or state that did not fit elsewhereo Infrastructure and facilities data or needs
oUse of off-campus locations
oTechnology capacity
oCollege foundation, fundraising
o Impact of accreditation changes
oLocal housing trends
oClassroom learning or faculty trends
oTrends identified in review of higher education news that can be documented with data or a research study
5858
Social Data Sources• Budget documents – institution, county, system office, state
• College Board Trends in College Pricing & Trends in Student Aid
• State Higher Education Executive Offers – State Higher Education Finance
• National Association of State Student Grant & Aid Programs
• IPEDS
• US Department of Education Office of Federal Student Aid- FAFSA completion rates
• Institutional financial aid data
• US Census Bureau American Community Survey – computer and internet availability
• Center for Generational Kinetics – Gen Z study
• Pew Research Center – Social networking usage
• Campus Computing Project – Information technology survey
5959
Lessons Learned• Use this section to include other indicators unique to your college or state that did not fit elsewhere
• Consider the social patterns that are important for your audience to know about
o i.e. technology, social media usage, financial aid
• Verify news articles with data
• Consider including initiatives your college is participating in (i.e. Completion by Design)
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Next Steps
6161
Next steps• Review, edit, format, and finalize
oCollaborate to add and remove contentoCheck and verify all dataoAdd executive summary, introduction, table of contents, cover pages
• Share the final reportoSent Senior Leadership Team for review and feedback
oPresented at monthly board meetingoPosted to our internal SharePoint site oHard copies printed from college print shopoStrategic planning listening sessions for employees, community, and students
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Continue to share the data and analysis• DatafIER is a bi-weekly email series from the Office of Institutional Effectiveness and Research that is sent to all faculty and staff
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Feedback from the college so far…
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Final Thoughts• Identify stakeholder expectations - what the environmental scan is and is not
• Allow time to filter through data to determine what to use
• Determine who can help write sections, provide data, or review the analysis
• Be very specific in internal source documentation to facilitate verification
• Determine what is most important based on your time and resources
6565
Christine Teach
Institutional Research Analyst
704-290-5833
Elizabeth Hamrick
Assessment and Accreditation Specialist
704-290-5873
Questions?
