Concito and the Danish Energy and Climate policy

Susanne Krawack24 October 2014

My presentation

Setting the scene:• The challenge• Danish climate policy

How green are we?• Government• Personal lifestyle• The private sector

Green Growth and Green Transition • What are the barriers?

A think tank working with climate mitigation and adaptation policies.

Politically independent.

”CONCITO will provide analyses, based on research and practice … which can be translated into direct action in politics, business and the responsibilities of every citizen.”

The Constitution of CONCITO

CONCITO

Member-based (100 members) Companies, Researchers, Civil society

We provide research-based analysis and disseminate this to policy makers – often a second opinion!

Tax system, biomass, transport technologies, consumption, embedded carbon in the building sector, agriculture….

CONCITO

Globale temperatures

Where are we heading?

Illustration: David Roberts, Grist.org

IPCC and Copenhagen 2009 recommended a 2 degree target.

If current mitigation targets are met, we will reach 4 degrees.

If all countries continue ”business as usual”, we are likely to reach 6 degrees.

The impact from climate change, we are already experiencing is due to a temperature rise of only 0,8 degrees.

IEA: World Energy Outlook 2012

If we are to reach a maximum temperature rise by 2 degrees in this century,

2/3

of known fossil energy reserves must stay in the underground.

Conclusions:• Sun, wind og biomass is far from enough.• Nuclear power will be a nessecary technology.• CCS is important.• Gas will play a role as an intermediate energy

source.• Land use (forests and agriculture) must

contribute negative to GHG emissions.

• Not only the energy system, but also consumption patterns must be altered.

IPCC 2014:

We expect 11 bio. people on the planet in 2050.

If all equally divide the tolerable level of CO2 emissions,there will be

less than 2 tons per person per year.

Today an average Danish citizen has a CO2 emission of

18 tons (incl. consumption)

So what do Danes do about that?

The Climate challenge

The overall strategy Our Future Energy

1.Energy efficiency: (810 PJ in 2010 to 520 PJ in 2050)• A heavy obligation on energy companies.• Building renovation.

2.Renewable energy: • Wind • Biomass (wood pellets) • Biogas (slurry and organic waste)

3.Electrification: • Industry, heating, transport• The Nordic electricity market• ”Smart Grid”, electric cars

:

Three Types of Initiatives:

Three Types of Initiatives

• Most emission reductions are made in the energy sector, included in the EU ETS system.

• The agricultural sector and the transport are not reducing their emissions.

• The consumption is left out.• Biomass is important, but how much is really

CO2 neutral?

• Is climate policy led by industrial interests?

Second opinion

The Danish decoupling

The Danish decoupling

ACO 2012

CO2 emission related to consumption

The CO2 footprint of a Danish citizen

Scope 1: direkte energiforbrug, benzin, gasfyr, mv.Scope 2: el og fjernvarme

The individual choice

The biggest challenge is..

Young people: Reduce flying.

Men: Less meat and smaller cars.

Women: Only buy what you will use and use it up.

Danish wind energy

Turnover in the wind industry

Will the green transitions create growth?

Export of energy technologies

Second opinion

• Mitigation in the production sector is mainly driven by outsourcing

• Few incentives for companies to reduce GHG emissions – taxes are low.• The development of windpower is mainly support to

industry (due to ETS)• There is a lot of greenwash by companies.

Green growth and green transition

Green transition: is a fundamental change to a society, which emits less GHG and use less resources. It can hardly be achieved without change of positions of power.

Green Growth: to create jobs in the ’green’ energy sector in Denmark by export of green solutions.

Barriers for green transition

Companies and the population need long term incentives to change behavior.

Government will not set a different and unpopular agenda -

Major companies and lobbyists set the political agenda – and it is to consume more.

The financial sector could create incentives, but does not

Researchers and the press follow politicians and lobby organisations.

Difficult to see where the change will come from – but there are initiatives from citizens.