COMPREHENSIVE LONG RANGE PLANNING STUDY

ELDRED

CENTRAL SCHOOL DISTRICT

2018-19

COMPREHENSIVE LONG RANGE PLANNING STUDY

A Service of

Western Suffolk BOCES Division of Instructional

Support Services

Office of School Planning

& Research

Eldred Central School District

Comprehensive Long Range Planning Study 2018-19

BOARD OF EDUCATION President .......................................................................................................................................... Carol Bliefernich

Vice President ...................................................................................................................................... Amador Laput

Members ............................................................................................................................................... Joana Dutcher

................................................................................................................................................................. Scott Hallock

................................................................................................................................................................... Stacey Kuhn

DISTRICT ADMINISTRATION Superintendent of Schools ..................................................................................................... Dr. John C. Morgano

District Treasurer .................................................................................................................................. Caleb Russell District Clerk/Secretary to the Superintendent ................................................................................. Lisa Sibirtzeff

BUILDING ADMINISTRATION George Ross Mackenzie Elementary School ...................................................................... Scott Krebs, Principal

Eldred Junior-Senior High School .................................................................................... Jean Maxson, Principal

MISSION STATEMENT

Eldred School District

prepares citizens to

participate in a global society

T A B L E O F C O N T E N T S

Introduction ................................................................................................................................................... i

Executive Summary .............................................................................................................................. ii

Section One: Demographic Analysis

A. Population .................................................................................................................................................... 1 B. Births ........................................................................................................................................................... 10 C. Housing ...................................................................................................................................................... 13 D. Non-Public School Enrollment................................................................................................................ 18

Section Two: Enrollment Analysis

A. Projection Methodology ........................................................................................................................... 20 B. Grade - to - Grade Retention ................................................................................................................... 22 C. Projected Entering Cohorts ...................................................................................................................... 22 D. District Enrollment ................................................................................................................................... 23

APPENDICES Appendix A ......................................................................................................................... Enrollment Worksheets

Appendix B .................................................................................................................................. Enrollment Graphs

TABLES Table 1 - Comparative Population Growth ............................................................................................................. 2 Table 2 - Comparative Enrollment Growth............................................................................................................. 3 Table 3 - Foreign-Born Population in the United States from 1970 to 2060 ........................................................ 6 Table 4 - Eldred CSD Ethnic Composition of Resident Population ..................................................................... 8 Table 5 - Births in the Eldred CSD 2003 - 2016 ...................................................................................................... 12 Table 6 - Number of Home Sales and Median Prices in Sullivan County ........................................................ 13 Table 7 - Home Sales in the Eldred CSD 2006 - 2017 ........................................................................................... 15 Table 8 - Population and Enrollment Density (# per Square Miles) for Selected Areas .................................. 16 Table 9 - Population Characteristics for Selected Areas ...................................................................................... 17 Table 10 - Eldred CSD Resident Student Enrollment in Non-Public Schools .................................................. 18 Table 11 - Projected Eldred CSD Enrollment ........................................................................................................ 26 Table 12 - Projected Eldred CSD Elementary Instructional Sections ................................................................. 28

FIGURES Figure 1 - Projected Age Structure of the U.S. Population .................................................................................... 4 Figure 2 - Population Distribution by Age for the Eldred CSD ........................................................................... 5 Figure 3 - Historical & Projected Racial Structure of the U.S. Population .......................................................... 7 Figure 4 - United States Public School Enrollment by Race/Ethnicity: 2000, 2010, 2014 and 2020 .................. 9 Figure 5 - New York State Births, 1997 - 2017 ....................................................................................................... 11 Figure 6 - Sullivan County Births, 1996 - 2016 ...................................................................................................... 11 Figure 7 - Eldred CSD, K - 12 Enrollment ............................................................................................................. 23 Figure 8 - Eldred Central School District Enrollment Change ........................................................................... 24 Figure 9 - George Ross Mackenzie (K - 6) ES Enrollment, 2008 - 2028 .............................................................. 27 Figure 10 - Eldred Junior-Senior HS Enrollment, 2008 - 2028 ............................................................................. 29

I N T R O D U C T I O N

At the request of the Eldred Central School District, the Western Suffolk BOCES Office of School Planning and Research conducted this study to assess recent demographic factors and enrollment trends in order to prepare projections through the year 2028.

The Eldred Central School District is committed to meeting the educational needs of its students. The continued monitoring of enrollment trends will give the district the data on which to consider a variety of educational issues. The foundation for this study is in keeping with the promotion of the basic district mission and philosophy.

The Board of Education and the Superintendent’s efforts to plan for the future through sound management practices is fostered by comprehensive, objective data, such as contained within this Comprehensive Long Range Planning Study. This study serves to provide objective data that the Board of Education and administration can use in planning for the future. Planning is, however, a dynamic process that needs to reflect change. Periodic updates would allow the incorporation of subtle changes in district trends.

Barbara Graziano, School Planning Manager, oversaw all aspects of the study and served as principal researcher. Shu-ling Liu, Research Analyst, served as analyst and forecaster. Irene Bradley, Program Specialist, prepared the report. Denise Facilla, Educational Planning Assistant, provided research assistance and prepared the report for printing.

Dr. John C. Morgano, Superintendent of Schools, provided access to district records and compiled the necessary data for the study, thus enabling the study to accomplish its objectives.

i

Additionally, selected references and resources were used, as indicated below: Brookings Institution Bureau of Labor Statistics Center for Housing Policy Center for Immigration Studies Center for Public Education Current Population Survey Forbes Magazine Freddie Mac Hudson Gateway Association of Realtors, Inc. Kaiser Family Foundation National Alliance for Public Charter Schools National Association of Realtors National Catholic Education Association National Center for Education Statistics National Center for Health Statistics National Low Income Housing Coalition New York State Education Department New York State Office of the Aging New York State Office of Real Property Services New York State Office of Religious and Independent Schools Pew Research Center The Empire Center The State of the Nation’s Housing 2017, Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University Town of Highland Planning Department Town of Lumberland Planning Department United States Customs and Border Protection United States Census Bureau United States Department of Education U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development USA Today

ii

E X E C U T I V E S U M M A R Y


Long Range Planning Study conducted by Western Suffolk BOCES

Summary of Demographic and Enrollment Analysis (page 1)

Demographic Analysis

• The Eldred Central School District’s area demographics help us to understand the enrollment trends of the district.

• The population within the Eldred Central School District increased 21.4 percent between 1990 and 2000, followed by a 15.2 percent increase between 2000 and 2010, and a 2.5 percent decrease between 2010 and 2017. Between 2000 and 2016, the age structure of the population has shifted; the percentages of school-aged children (5 - 19) and young adults (20 - 39) has decreased, while the percentages of residents that are pre-school (0 - 4) aged, or between 40 - 64 and 65+ have increased. The ethnic composition of the resident population has also shifted since 1990, with growth reported in the Hispanic and Asian/other segments and decreases noted in the white and black segments.

• Births in Sullivan County have fluctuated, but overall increased 2.4 percent during the historical period 1996 - 2016 (2017 county birth data is not yet available). Within the district, births peaked in 2006, with 57 births recorded that year. The lowest number of births (32) was recorded in 2014 and again in 2015. There were 42 births recorded in 2016 (2017 school district birth data is not yet available).

• Housing sales increased in 2017, growing to the highest level since 2007, with approximately 107 units sold; this remains below the peak year of 2006, when 122 units were sold. The median sale price also increased to $160,000 in 2015 and 2017; this is the highest level since 2011, when the median price was $186,500. However, Census Bureau data shows that approximately 44 percent of housing in the district is vacant, indicating that many housing units are utilized as seasonal homes.

• In 2017, 27 resident students (4.9 percent) attended non-public schools. During the last ten years, non-public school enrollment has ranged between 20 - 34 students per year.

E X E C U T I V E S U M M A R Y


Long Range Planning Study conducted by Western Suffolk BOCES

Summary of Demographic and Enrollment Analysis (page 2)

Enrollment Analysis

• The Eldred Central School District educates students in grades K - 12 in two district buildings.

• Historically, K - 12 district enrollment in 2018 reflects a decrease of 186 students, or 27.2 percent, when compared to 2008.

• A smaller decrease is projected during the next ten years, with a loss of 73 students (K - 12), or 14.7 percent, anticipated between the actual 2018 enrollment of 498 students and the projected 2028 enrollment of 425 students.

• There are several key factors that have influenced the projected enrollment trends. District births have declined, resulting in smaller kindergarten cohorts. Historically, the district enrolled between 32 and 54 kindergarten students each year between 2008 and 2017. Kindergarten enrollment is projected to range between 30 and 36 students in each of the next ten years. This will impact total district enrollment as these smaller cohorts move through the system. In addition, smaller kindergarten cohorts will replace larger graduating twelfth grade classes in six of the next ten years, with losses of between 2 - 16 students in each of those years, due to this displacement.

Location of the Eldred Central School District

Eldred Central School District, Comprehensive Long Range Planning Study, 2018-19 .................................................................................. page 1

Section One: Demographic Analysis

The objective of this section of the study was to evaluate demographic factors that can impact the Eldred Central School District. Changes in school enrollment occur because of variations in the number of children being born, more/fewer families moving into a community, and/or changes in the number of children attending non-public or charter schools. Therefore, the demographic factors considered were population characteristics, birthrates, housing and non-public school enrollments.

A. POPULATION

According to a report from the Census Bureau, there were an estimated 325.7 million people living in the United States as of July 2017, representing an increase of 17 million people, or 5.5 percent, since the 2010 Census. However, this reflects a year-to-year population increase of 0.7 percent, for the second consecutive year, indicating the slowest growth since the Great Depression. This trifling growth rate is attributed to a lower fertility rate, lower immigration rates since the Great Recession, and a rise in deaths amongst Baby Boomers. Census Bureau projections indicate that the United States population is expected to continue to grow more slowly, with an increase of 78.2 million people forecasted between 2017 and 2060. By 2058, the population is anticipated to exceed a total of 400 million people.

New York State’s population totaled approximately 19.8 million people on July 1, 2017, reflecting a gain of 471,297 people, or 2.4 percent, since the 2010 Census. However, in 2017, New York experienced a net migration loss of 60,097 people (between July 2016 and July 2017), meaning more residents moved to other states than moved in. In 2017, New York’s domestic migration loss was considerably larger than any other state (-190,508), losing more residents to domestic migration than California (-138,195) and Illinois (-114,779), the next two states with the greatest losses. Recent domestic migration losses in New York have been offset by international migration (gain of 130,411 residents between 2016 and 2017) and natural increases (gain of 73,090 residents). However, it should be noted that gains through natural increase have declined each year since 2010. New York is the fourth most populous state in the country, following California (39.5 million people), Texas (28.3 million people) and Florida (21.0 million people). Prior to 2014, New York had been the third most populous state.


As shown in Table 1, between 1990 and 2000, the resident population in Sullivan County increased 6.8 percent. The population also increased in the Towns of Highland and Lumberland, with gains of 12.0 and 36.1 percent, respectively, and in the Eldred School District, with a gain of 21.4 percent. Population gains were also seen in all of the surrounding districts, during this period. Population growth continued between 2000 and 2010, with an increase of 4.8 percent in Sullivan County, 5.2 percent in the Town of Highland and 27.3 percent in the Town of Lumberland. During the same period, population increased 15.2 percent in the Eldred School District, while Monticello and Sullivan West School Districts recorded gains of 6.5 to 1.0 percent, respectively. However, between 2010 and 2017, Sullivan County’s population decreased by 2.7 percent; the population in the Towns of Highland and Lumberland decreased 2.3 and 2.9 percent, respectively, while the Eldred School District and the surrounding school districts recorded losses of between 2.0 and 3.1 percent.

Table 1 - Comparative Population Growth

Location 1990 2000 2010 2017* % change

90 - 00 % change

00 - 10 % change

10 - 17

Sullivan County 69,277 73,966 77,547 75,485 6.8% 4.8% -2.7%

Town of Highland 2,147 2,404 2,530 2,472 12.0% 5.2% -2.3%

Town of Lumberland 1,425 1,939 2,468 2,397 36.1% 27.3% -2.9%

Eldred CSD 3,685 4,474 5,156 5,025 21.4% 15.2% -2.5%

Monticello CSD 19,090 20,601 21,934 21,376 7.9% 6.5% -2.5%

Port Jervis City SD 17,399 17,532 17,498 17,141 0.8% -0.2% -2.0%

Sullivan West CSD 9,892 10,470 10,576 10,244 5.8% 1.0% -3.1%

Source: Census Bureau *Estimated data


As shown in Table 2, public school enrollment increased between 1990 and 2000 in Sullivan County, and in the Eldred, Monticello and Port Jervis School Districts, while Sullivan West School District remained stable (loss of 0.1 percent). Between 2000 and 2010, enrollment decreases were recorded in Sullivan County and in the Eldred, Port Jervis and Sullivan West School Districts, while a gain was recorded in the Monticello School District. Between 2010 and 2016, enrollment declined in Sullivan County, the Eldred School District and all of the adjacent districts, with losses ranging between 15.5 and 27.7 percent.

Table 2 - Comparative Enrollment Growth

Location 1990

Enrollment 2000

Enrollment 2010

Enrollment 2016

Enrollment % change

90 - 00 % change

00 - 10 % change

10 - 16

Sullivan County 10,898 11,149 10,596 8,931 2.3% -5.0% -15.7%

Eldred CSD 627 759 647 546 21.1% -14.8% -15.6%

Monticello CSD 3,324 3,467 3,955 2,859 4.3% 14.1% -27.7%

Port Jervis City SD 3,163 3,427 2,957 2,499 8.3% -13.7% -15.5%

Sullivan West CSD 1,673 1,672 1,276 1,007 -0.1% -23.7% -21.1%


The Census Bureau projects that the year 2030 will mark a significant “demographic turning point for the United States.” By 2030, all Baby Boomers will be age 65 or older, one in five Americans are expected to be of retirement age and immigration is anticipated to take over natural increase as the principal driver of population growth. Census Bureau forecasts indicate that “beyond 2030, the U.S. population is projected to grow slowly, to age considerably, and become more racially and ethnically diverse.”

As shown in Figure 1, the 65 and over age segment of the population in the United States consisted of approximately 15 percent of the total population in 2015; it is forecasted that this age segment will significantly grow and comprise nearly 24 percent of the total population in 2060. However, the percentage of residents under 18 years of age is projected to decrease from nearly 23 percent of the population in 2015 to less than 20 percent in 2060. The 18 - 24, 25 - 44 and 40 - 64 age segments are also forecasted to decrease between 2015 and 2060, from 10 to 8 percent, from 26 to 25 percent, and from 26 to 24 percent, respectively.

Projected Age Structure of the U.S. Population, 2015 - 2060

Figure 1 - Projected Age Structure of the U.S. Population

Source: Census Bureau

22.9 21.2 20.3 19.8

9.7 8.6 8.3 8.0

26.3 26.7 25.2 24.7

26.2 22.9 24.5 24.0

14.9 20.6 21.8 23.6

2015 2030 2045 2060

Perc

ent

Under 18 18 - 24 25 - 44 45 - 64 65+


Between 2010 and 2016, the 19 and under segment in Sullivan County decreased from 25.3 to 23.8 percent of the population; however, the 65-and older segment grew from 14.8 to 16.8 percent.

As shown in Figure 2, the age structure of the resident population in the Eldred School District has shifted between 2000 and 2016. The percentage of pre-school aged (0 - 4 years) children increased from 5.3 to 6.1 percent, while the percentage of school-aged (5 - 19 years) children decreased from 20.8 to 16.5 percent. The young adult (20 - 39) age segment also decreased, from 21.4 percent in 2000 to 17.5 percent in 2016; it is important to note that this segment contains residents of peak child-bearing ages. However, the 40 - 64 and the 65 and over age segments increased from 35.4 to 40.1 percent and from 17.2 to 19.9 percent, respectively.

Figure 2 - Population Distribution by Age for the Eldred CSD *2012-2016 American Community Survey Estimates

0 - 4 5.3%

5 - 19 20.8%

20 - 39

21.4%

40 - 64

35.4%

65+

17.2%

2000

0 - 4

6.1%

5 - 19 16.5%

20 - 39 17.5%

40 - 64 40.1%

65+

19.9%

2016*


As shown in Table 3, there has been significant growth in the foreign-born population in the United States. Between 1970 and 2016, the immigrant population has quadrupled, increasing from approximately 9.6 million people to 43.7 million people. The immigrant share of the total U.S. population increased from 4.7 percent to 13.5 percent, during this period. Census Bureau projections anticipate that the foreign-born population will further increase to 69.3 million people by 2060 and account for 17.2 percent of the United States population.

Table 3 - Foreign-Born Population in the United States from 1970 to 2060

Year 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2016 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Number of Immigrants (Millions)

9.6 14.1 19.8 31.1 40.0 43.7 46.7 53.8 60.2 65.3 69.3

Immigrant Share of Total U.S Population

4.7% 6.2% 7.9% 11.1% 12.9% 13.5% 14.0 15.2 16.1 16.8 17.2


The majority of the foreign-born population has immigrated from Latin America and the Caribbean, with the greatest numbers (as of 2016) settling in California (9.9 million people), New York (4.2 million people), Texas (3.9 million people), Florida (3.4 million people) and Illinois (1.8 million people). In 2016, immigrants from Latin America accounted for approximately 51 percent of the foreign-born population, while Asians accounted for nearly 31 percent and Europeans accounted for approximately 11 percent of the foreign-born population. This is a substantial change since 1960, when 75 percent of immigrants in the United States were from Europe, nine percent were from Latin America and five percent were from Asia.

A Kaiser Family Foundation survey from 2016 indicates that 20 million children in the United States lived with at least one foreign-born parent; this reflects one in four children under the age of 18 having at least one foreign-born parent. More than half of those children live in four states, which include California, Texas, New York and Florida.

The foreign-born population in New York State increased by 6.3 percent between 2010 and 2016, increasing from nearly 4.2 million people in 2010 to more than 4.4 million people in 2016; this represents 23 percent of New York State’s population. The foreign-born population in New York comprises approximately 49 percent of people from Latin America, 29 percent from Asia and almost 17 percent from Europe. In Sullivan County, the foreign-born population increased 4.1 percent between 2010 and 2016, and represents approximately 9.7 percent of the population. According to Census Bureau estimates, the foreign-born population in the Eldred School District grew from 6.5 percent to approximately 11.3 percent of the resident population between 2010 and 2016.


Immigration has led to a shift in the ethnic structure of the United States population. In 2010, approximately 64 percent of the population was white, down from 85 percent in 1960. The country’s white population is forecasted to become “majority minority” in 2044; by 2060, the combined minority population is forecasted to comprise approximately 56 percent of the total population, compared to 36 percent in 2010. As shown in Figure 3, Hispanics were the largest minority group in 2010, accounting for approximately 16 percent of the population, followed by blacks (12.2 percent), Asians (5.8 percent) and those identifying themselves as two or more races (1.9 percent). However, Asians are the fastest growing minority group, growing by 8.3 percent between 2010 and 2015.

Historical & Projected Racial Structure of the U.S. Population, 2010 - 2060

Figure 3 - Historical & Projected Racial Structure of the U.S. Population

Source U.S. Census Bureau

The Census Bureau reported that a majority of Baby Boomers are non-Hispanic white. It is projected that as the number of Baby Boomers declines as a result of mortality, the United States will see a significant decrease in the percentage of non-Hispanic whites. Immigration and births to minority populations are also expected to lead to a progressively diverse population.

In New York State, whites made up approximately 56 percent of the population in 2016, down from 62 percent in 2000, while minorities represented 44 percent of state residents. Hispanics are the largest minority group at 18.6 percent, followed by blacks (14.4 percent), Asians (8.9 percent) and those identifying themselves as two or more races (1.8 percent). As of 2016, five states are “majority-minority”: California, Hawaii, New Mexico, Texas and Nevada.

63.7 59.6 55.5 51.3 47.3 43.6

16.3 19.0

21.6 24.1

26.5 28.6

12.2 12.4 12.6 12.7 12.8 13.0

5.8 6.7 7.6 8.5 9.3 9.9

1.9 2.3 2.8 3.4 4.1 4.9

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Perc

ent

White Hispanic Black Asian/Other 2 or more races


The ethnic composition within Sullivan County has also shifted. The Hispanic segment of the population increased from 13.6 percent in 2010 to 15.0 percent in 2016, while the white population decreased from 74.5 to 73.0 percent. The Asian/other and black segments remained relatively stable during this period, at 1.9 and 7.7 percent, respectively; 2.5 percent of residents identified themselves as two or more races in 2016.

As shown in Table 4, there have been changes in the ethnic composition of the resident population within the Eldred Central School District between 1990 and 2016. During this period, the Hispanic segment of the population increased, growing from 1.2 to 6.9 percent and the Asian/other segment grew from 0.2 to 2.6 percent. However, the white and black segments decreased from 97.1 to 89.3 percent and from 1.5 to 0.9 percent, respectively; 0.3 percent of residents identified themselves as two or more races in 2016.

Table 4 - Eldred CSD Ethnic Composition of Resident Population

Year White Black Hispanic Asian 2 or More Races

1990 97.1% 1.5% 1.2% 0.2% n/a

2000 93.2% 1.7% 3.0% 1.2% 0.8%

2010 89.6% 2.2% 5.4% 1.1% 1.7%

2016* 89.3% 0.9% 6.9% 2.6% 0.3%

Sources: School District Demographics System, American Fact Finder 2, New York State Data Center *American Fact Finder 2 Estimates; margin of error up to +/- 5%


The National Center for Education Statistics reported that beginning in the 2014-15 school year, there were fewer white students (49.8 percent) than minority students enrolled in the United States public school system. As shown in Figure 4, in 2000, white students comprised approximately 61 percent and minority students comprised approximately 39 percent of the country’s public school enrollment. By 2020, white students are projected to comprise approximately 46 percent and minority students are expected to comprise approximately 54 percent of the country’s public school enrollment.

U. S. Public Schools Shift to Majority-Minority Enrollment

Figure 4 - United States Public School Enrollment by Race/Ethnicity: 2000, 2010, 2014 and 2020

Source: National Center for Education Statistics

A report from United States Customs and Border Protection states that unaccompanied minor children (UACs) aged 0 - 17 years old continue to enter the United States on humanitarian grounds. There were approximately 41,000 children apprehended in FY2018 YTD (fiscal year October 1, 2017 - July 30, 2018), which is an increase of 16 percent compared to the same period last year; the number for family units apprehended was up 29 percent during this period. The greatest numbers of UACs come from El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Mexico as they flee from high crime, gang violence and poverty in their native countries. The greatest numbers of UACs have settled in Texas, California, New York and Florida, followed by New Jersey, Virginia and Maryland.

0255075

100

2000 2010 2014 2020

Perc

ent

Minority Students White Students

Eldred Central School District, Comprehensive Long Range Planning Study, 2018-19 ................................................................................ page 10

B. BIRTHS

Provisional data from the National Center for Health Statistics indicates that there were 3,853,472 recorded births in 2017. This is the lowest number of recorded births since 1987 and reflects a decrease of two percent when compared to 2016. The general fertility rate also decreased in 2017 to 60.3 births per one thousand women between the ages of 15 and 44. This is the lowest fertility rate on record and compares to 62.0 births in 2016 and 62.9 births in 2014. The peak fertility rate of 122.7 births occurred in 1957, during the Baby Boom years.

Declining births have been attributed to various factors, including lower starting salaries, substantial student loan debt, and elevated rental costs. These issues have resulted in a growing number of young people continuing to live with their parents, resulting in delayed marriage and childbearing. This is reflected in the average age of first birth, which has increased from 24.9 years in 2000 to 26.6 years in 2016 (latest available data), a record high for the country. In 2016, it was reported that 50 percent of adults 18 and over were married, compared to 72 percent in 1960.

In 2017, record low birth rates were seen in all age groups under the age of 30 and decreases were seen in all age groups under the age of 40. Teen women between the ages of 15 - 19 experienced the most significant birth rate decline (7 percent), when compared to the prior year. The birth rate for women in their early twenties (20 - 24) and in their late twenties (25 - 29) each decreased four percent, while the birth rates for women aged 30 - 34 and 35 - 39 decreased two and one percent, respectively. It should be noted that birth rates for the 30 - 34 and 35 - 39 age groups decreased for the first time since 2012 and 2011, respectively. However, the birth rate for women aged 40 - 44 increased two percent, while women aged 45 - 49 had their highest birth rates since 1963 (for the second consecutive year), with 0.9 births per 1,000 women. This has been attributed to women delaying childbearing for various reasons.

Shifts in fertility patterns among minority groups have also affected birth rates. Between 2000 and 2017, fertility rates have fallen for all racial/ethnic groups, with the most significant decline reported in the Hispanic segment, falling from a peak of 98.3 births in 2006 to 67.6 births in 2017. Fertility rates for NHOPI (Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander) women was the highest with 73 births per 1,000 women, followed by Hispanic women (68 births), blacks (63 births), AIAN (American Indian/Alaska Native) women (60 births), Asian women (58 births) and whites (57 births).

The non-marital birth rate for women between the ages of 15 - 44 declined for the eighth consecutive year in 2016 (latest available data), to 42.4 births per 1,000 women. Amongst racial and ethnic groups, black women have the greatest percentage of unwed births (69.8 percent), while the lowest percentage of unwed births (12.0 percent) are accounted for by Asian women.


Reflecting the national trend, the number of births in New York State decreased in 2017 when compared to the previous year. Provisional numbers indicate that there were 229,682 births recorded in 2017, reflecting a decrease of 1.3 percent when compared to 2016. However, this represents a decrease of 9.1 percent when compared to the number of births in 2007 (252,662 births) and a decrease of 10.6 percent when compared to births in 1997 (256,976 births).

Figure 5 - New York State Births, 1997 - 2017 Note: 2017 data are provisional

Figure 6 - Sullivan County Births, 1996 - 2016 Note: 2017 County birth data is not yet available

Figure 6 shows that births in Sullivan County remained relatively stable between 1996 and 2001. Subsequently, the number of births peaked in 2006, when 969 births were recorded. However, since then, births have fluctuated, with a spike in 2012, when 949 births were reported. There were 859 births recorded in 2016, representing a decline of 11.4 percent when compared to the peak year of 2006.

222,000

234,000

246,000

258,000

270,000

282,000

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Birt

hs

Year

New York State Births, 1997 - 2017

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Birt

hs

Year

Sullivan County Births, 1996 - 2016


As shown in Table 5, the number of births in the Eldred School District peaked in 2006, with 57 births recorded that year. The lowest number of births (32) was recorded in 2014 and again in 2015 (district birth data for 2017 is not yet available).

Table 5 - Births in the Eldred CSD 2003 - 2016

Year Eldred CSD

2003 35

2004 39

2005 39

2006 57

2007 47

2008 43

2009 45

2010 40

2011 50

2012 34

2013 44

2014 32

2015 32

2016 42

Source: NYS Dept. of Health Note: 2017 school district birth data is not yet available


C. HOUSING

During the first half of 2018, various national housing statistics indicated continued strength in the real estate markets, with strong buyer demand, rising prices, and in some cases, bidding wars occurring. The median sale price for new homes in June 2018 was $302,100; this reflects an increase of 30 percent when compared to the median sale price of $232,600 in June 2012.

However, many housing market experts, investors and economists have cautioned that the housing market may be on the brink of a real estate bubble, which some fear may be followed by a housing crash in the next few years. First-time homebuyers are facing hardships when it comes to purchasing a home, as younger buyers have been affected by crippling student loan debt, rising home prices, limited new construction of starter homes and a tightened supply of available homes to purchase. Nevertheless, increased credit opportunities, an improving job market, relatively low interest rates and rising rents have pushed young people who can afford a down payment to purchase a home. However, according to the National Association of Realtors, the share of first-time home buyers in 2017 (34 percent) remained below the historical average of approximately 40 percent.

The housing market may be further affected by a new tax law that was put into effect in December 2017, which includes a $10,000 tax cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions. Residents in high-tax states, including New York, California and New Jersey, will feel the greatest impact from this new tax law.

Locally, in the third quarter of 2018, the number of sales in Sullivan County remained stable (decrease of 1.1 percent) when compared to the same quarter in the prior year. However, during the same period the median sale price (for single family homes) increased, with a gain of 11.3 percent. The growth in median sale prices has been attributed to a tight supply of available inventory.

Table 6 - Number of Home Sales and Median Prices in Sullivan County

County 2018 Q3 2017 Q3 Change

# Sales Median Price* # Sales

Median Price* # Sales

Median Price*

Sullivan County 262 $142,553 265 $128,118 -1.1% 11.3%

Source: Hudson Gateway Association of Realtors, Inc. *Median Price for Single Family Homes

The Pew Research Center reported that more households were renting in 2016 than at any point since 1965. The share of households renting their home has grown during the last ten years, from 31.2 percent in 2006 to 36.6 percent in 2016. This is reflective of several factors, including the long term effects of the housing crash during the Great Recession, and the challenges millennials face as they enter the housing market. In 2016, 65 percent of households headed by people under the age of 35 were renting as compared to 57 percent in 2006. This compares to the percentage of renters in the 35 - 44 age segment (41 percent), the 45 - 64 age segment (28 percent) and the 65 and over age segment (21 percent) in 2016. All major racial and ethnic groups were more likely to rent when compared to a decade ago; however, black and Hispanic households are nearly twice as likely to rent as white households. As of 2016, 58 percent of black household heads and 54 percent of Hispanic household heads were renting, compared to 28 percent of white households.


There has also been growth in the number and share of multi-generational households. In 2016, one-in-five Americans lived in a multi-generational home, accounting for 64 million people, or 20 percent, of the United States population. This is an increase since 2009 when 51.5 million people, or 17 percent of Americans, lived in a multi-generational home. Among ethnic groups, reportedly 29 percent of Asians, 27 percent of Hispanics and 26 percent of blacks were living in a multigenerational home in 2016, as compared to 16 percent of whites.

The Census Bureau reported that the homeownership rate for the second quarter of 2018 was 64.3 percent; this is an increase of 0.9 percent when compared to the second quarter of 2017, when the homeownership rate was 63.7 percent. It should be noted that in 2016, the homeownership rate reached a 50-year low. Among ethnic groups, homeownership rates for black and Hispanic households continue to remain well below the homeownership rate of white households, resulting in a gap between white and minority ownership. In the second quarter of 2018, the homeownership rates for the black and Hispanic segments of the population were 41.6 percent and 46.6 percent, respectively, compared to 72.9 percent for the white segment of the population.


As shown in Table 7, housing sales in the Eldred School District increased in 2017 to the highest level since 2007, with approximately 107 units sold; this remains below the peak year of 2006, when 122 units were sold. The median sale price also increased to $160,000 in 2015 and 2017; this is the highest level since 2011, when the median price was $186,500.

Table 7 - Home Sales in the Eldred CSD 2006 - 2017

Year Number of Sales Median Price

2006 122 $237,500

2007 110 $227,000

2008 72 $201,500

2009 71 $170,000

2010 46 $165,000

2011 58 $186,500

2012 49 $150,000

2013 68 $152,000

2014 57 $140,625

2015 79 $160,000

2016 91 $135,000

2017 107 $160,000

Source: New York State Office of Real Property Services

Housing data for the area encompassed by the Eldred Central School District revealed that in 2016, 56.2 percent of the total housing was occupied and 43.8 percent was vacant, indicating that nearly half of the occupied units in the district are seasonal homes. Occupied housing can be inhabited by the owner of the house or a renter. In 2016, 78.5 percent of housing in the district was owner occupied and 21.5 percent was renter occupied. This compares to the Town of Highland, with 72.6 percent of occupied housing inhabited by the owner and 27.4 percent of housing occupied by a renter; in the Town of Lumberland, approximately 84.2 percent of occupied housing is inhabited by the owner and 15.8 percent of housing is occupied by a renter.

The Planning and Development Departments of the Towns of Highland and Lumberland were contacted regarding the status of current building projects, as well as any new developments before the planning boards. The towns each reported that there are no new subdivisions within the district boundaries.


The amount of available land naturally affects potential housing starts. Population and enrollment density (persons/pupils per square mile) presents a general index of available land and population composition. As shown in Table 8, the data indicates that the Eldred Central School District uses land at a lower density, with a lower student yield relative to that of Sullivan County. As of 2017, there were approximately 5 students and 50 persons per square mile in the Eldred Central School District, as compared to 9 students and 78 persons per square mile in Sullivan County. There are approximately 100.92 square miles, or 64,589 acres of land within the Eldred Central School District, offering a rural lifestyle.

Table 8 - Population and Enrollment Density (# per Square Miles) for Selected Areas

Location Area (sq.

miles)

1990 2000 2010 2017

Pop Density

Enroll Density

Pop Density

Enroll Density

Pop Density

Enroll Density

Pop Density

Enroll Density

Sullivan County 968.13 72 11 76 12 80 11 78 9

Town of Highland 50.06 43 n/a 48 n/a 51 n/a 49 n/a

Town of Lumberland 46.54 31 n/a 42 n/a 53 n/a 52 n/a

Eldred CSD 100.92 37 6 44 8 51 6 50 5

Monticello CSD 186.12 103 18 111 19 118 21 115 15

Port Jervis City SD 102.19 170 31 172 34 171 29 168 24

Sullivan West CSD 250.83 39 7 42 7 42 5 41 4



As shown in Table 9, since 1990, the percentage of households with children under 18 has been decreasing in Sullivan County, the Towns of Highland and Lumberland and in the Eldred School District. In 1990, approximately 30 percent of households in the Eldred School District had children under the age of 18; by 2016, approximately 26 percent of district households had children under 18. This compares to Sullivan County and the Towns of Highland and Lumberland, where approximately 29, 23 and 28 percent of households had children under 18, respectively, in 2016. The number of public school children per household also declined during this period, dropping from 0.44 to 0.32 per household in Sullivan County and from 0.44 to 0.27 per household in the Eldred School District. The median age in the Eldred School District was 48.3 years in 2016; this compares to the median age of 42.5 years in Sullivan County and 51.6 and 42.6 years in the Towns of Highland and Lumberland, respectively.

Table 9 - Population Characteristics for Selected Areas

Location Sullivan County

Town of Highland

Town of Lumberland Eldred CSD

Household Size

1990 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.6

2000 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.5

2010 2.6 2.4 2.6 2.5

2012-16* 2.7 2.3 2.6 2.5

% of Households

with Children under 18

1990 35.3% 29.0% 30.4% 30.3%

2000 34.2% 30.9% 34.4% 32.7%

2010 30.5% 24.7% 30.1% 27.6%

2012-16* 29.2% 23.0% 28.1% 25.6%

# Public School

Children per

Household

1990 0.44 n/a n/a 0.44

2000 0.40 n/a n/a 0.43

2010 0.35 n/a n/a 0.31

2012-16* 0.32 n/a n/a 0.27

% of Population under age 5

1990 7.2% n/a n/a 6.5%

2000 5.9% 4.7% 5.5% 5.3%

2010 6.0% 4.0% 5.5% 4.8%

2012-16* 5.7% 6.1% 6.2% 6.1%

Median Age

1990 34.8 38.5 40.0 n/a

2000 38.8 43.1 40.6 n/a

2010 41.7 45.4 42.9 44.1

2012-16* 42.5 51.6 42.6 48.3

Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Census; NYSED * American Community Survey Estimates


D. NON-PUBLIC SCHOOL ENROLLMENT

According to data from the Census Bureau, there were 5.5 million K - 12 students in the United States enrolled in private schools in 2016 (latest available data). Private school enrollment decreased in the nation by nearly 190,000 students between 2010 and 2016; projections indicate that private school enrollment will further decrease to 5.1 million students by 2025.

The Census Bureau reported that in 2016, private schools in New York enrolled approximately 416,807 students (13.4 percent of all New York State school-age children) in grades K - 12. This is a 9.3 percent decrease since 2010, when approximately 460,000 students, or nearly 14 percent of all New York State school-age children, attended private schools. According to NYSED, between 2010 and 2016, the percentage of all school age children attending private schools in Sullivan County decreased from 10.2 to 9.3 percent, during this period.

In 2017, 27 resident students (4.9 percent) attended non-public schools. Since 2010, non-public school enrollment has ranged between 20 - 34 students per year.

Table 10 - Eldred CSD Resident Student Enrollment in Non-Public Schools

Year Non-Public Enrollment

(K - 12)

Public Enrollment

(K - 12)

Total Public & Non-Public Enrollment

(K - 12)

% Non-Public (K - 12)

2010 29 647 676 4.3%

2011 24 651 675 3.6%

2012 20 650 670 3.0%

2013 21 618 639 3.3%

2014 29 581 610 4.8%

2015 28 570 598 4.7%

2016 34 546 580 5.9%

2017 27 529 556 4.9%

Source: NYSED

According to data from the National Catholic Education Association, Catholic school enrollment peaked in the United States during the early 1960’s, when more than 5.2 million students were enrolled in nearly 13,000 Catholic schools. By 1990, Catholic school enrollment had significantly decreased (52 percent) with 2.5 million students enrolled in 8,719 Catholic schools. In the past decade, Catholic school enrollment has continued to decline, from approximately 2.3 million students enrolled in 2007 to 1.8 million students enrolled in 2017; this represents a decrease of 65 percent since the peak enrollment. In the 2018-19 school year there were reportedly 6,352 Catholic schools in operation, representing a year-to-year decrease of 77 Catholic schools.


Catholic schools enrollment decreases have been attributed to rising tuition costs, the growth of charter schools, and an increase in the number of students being homeschooled or selecting School Choice. Catholic school enrollment was also impacted, and has yet to recover, by the Great Recession (2007 - 2009), as families were affected by job losses, lower wages and salary reductions.

Private school enrollment has decreased as the number of charter schools has grown, primarily because charter schools offer a tuition-free alternative to traditional public school settings, while providing the individualized attentiveness that private schools are said to offer. There has been significant growth in since 2006, when 1.2 million students were enrolled in charter schools. According to the National Alliance for Public Charter Schools, during the 2018-19 school year, it is estimated that there were 7,038 charter schools in the United States, housing nearly 3.2 million students.

According to the New York State Education Department, there are currently 320 charter schools in operation in New York State. At the present time, there are no charter schools in operation in Sullivan County.

Private school enrollment will potentially be affected by School Choice. School Choice has been established in 31 states and offers a variety of programs that fall into several categories, including Education Savings Accounts (ESAs), School Vouchers, Tax-Credit Scholarships and Individual Tax Credits and Deductions. It should be noted that a universal program does not exist; therefore there are variations in regards to what is offered in each state. School Choice options include charter schools, magnet schools, inter/intra-district public school choice, homeschooling, online learning, customized learning, and town tuitioning.

Homeschooling is another factor that has led to a decline in private school enrollment. During the economic recession in the late 2000’s, more families with non-working adults who would have previously sent their children to a private school opted to homeschool their children. Estimates indicate that over 2.3 million children were homeschooled during the 2016-17 school year (latest available data); this is an increase from 1.1 million students in 2003 and from 2 million students in 2010.


Section Two: Enrollment Analysis

The objective of this section of the study was to evaluate the district’s enrollment trends and variables in order to project future enrollments. The projected enrollment incorporates assumptions based on the demographic analysis presented in Section One.

This study uses BEDS enrollment data from the New York State Department of Education and the Eldred Central School District. The objective of this section of the study was to calculate enrollment projections by year, in each grade and for each school, for the next ten years.

The enrollment projections in this report incorporate past and present demographic factors, which include population characteristics, birthrates, housing and non-public school enrollment. If any significant changes in these factors occur, as detailed below, the enrollment projections should be recalculated. It is, in fact, recommended that the district update these projections regularly.

The enrollment projections are based on historical trends in the district. The projected enrollment is a reflection of stable incoming classes and gains and losses within grade transitions, paired with housing and non-public school factors. Enrollment projections are based on several assumptions, including continued migration patterns, maintained kindergarten-to-birth relationships and general demographics not experiencing extraordinary changes.

A. PROJECTION METHODOLOGY

The Cohort Survival Technique was used to project the district’s enrollment patterns for the next ten years. Three basic inputs were necessary:

1. Actual enrollment by grade for 2008 - 2018 for the district [Appendix A-1] and each school [Appendix A-7, A-9].

2. Grade-to-grade retention (migration) ratios for each two-grade transition to grades 1 - 12 for the past ten years for the district [Appendix A-1] and each school [Appendix A-7, A-9].

3. Projected kindergarten entering cohorts based on the number of live births in Sullivan County five years before each year projected, with consideration given to school district births [Appendix A-3].

The Cohort Survival Model takes into consideration the normal community processes that affect school enrollment, which include:

1. The number of births and fertility rates

2. Normal in and out migration

3. Transfers to and from non-public schools

4. Population variations

5. Resident family characteristics


The enrollment projections contained within this report are based on assumptions generated through the demographic analysis. This analysis led to the following assumptions:

1. Population will continue to decrease due to limited new residential development within the district and a significant percentage of homes being used as seasonal residences.

2. Future kindergarten classes are anticipated to be maintained at a level close to those seen during the last five years, relative to housing turnover and changes in population.

3. Non-public schools will continue to enroll approximately 3 - 6 percent of district resident students, as has been experienced in recent years.

The Cohort Survival Model is very accurate in forecasting future enrollment patterns, but the occurrence of certain conditions would warrant modifications in these projections. These conditions include:

• A level of new housing activity that is significantly higher or lower than that experienced by the district during the past three years.

• Expansion, consolidation, closing or the establishment of new non-public schools.

• Economic conditions that affect employment, finance, and housing in a manner dissimilar to the past three - five years.

• Sociological changes that reflect changed values or attitudes concerning family size and birthrate.

• Household characteristics that significantly differ from the past three - five years, including number of persons per household and age of household occupants.

It is important for the reader to understand the nature of enrollment projections. Regardless of the methodology employed to produce projections, all outcomes fall into three categories of reliability:

Category 1 - Those projections based on students already enrolled in the system are the most reliable projections.

Category 2 - Those projections based on documented births are slightly less reliable than those of Category 1.

Category 3 - Those projections based on estimates of future births are the least reliable.

Therefore, the most reliable projections are those calculated for the periods closest in time. Projections for periods further out in time are less reliable, particularly those beyond five years from the year of the study. The five-year period (2019 - 2023) projections are those best used in district planning and decision-making. That is because this period consists mainly of Category 1 projections.

It is noted that the overall enrollment projections produced by Western Suffolk BOCES generally fall within a four percent margin of error. The greatest discrepancies in projections occur in the smallest subsets of those projections. For example, the projections for the district as a whole are likely to be the most accurate, and the projections of a particular grade level in a specific year are likely to be the least accurate. It is advised that updates to projections be continued on a periodic basis to maintain modifications warranted by subtle shifts in migration trends and demographic factors.


B. GRADE - TO - GRADE RETENTION

The enrollment trends of the past ten years were analyzed, particularly the trend to lose or gain students in transition from one grade to the next. The Cohort Survival Model measures these trends through the analysis of “migration ratios” that compare the number of students at a particular grade level in a given year to the number of students at the next grade level in the following year. Migration ratios measure this relationship as a percent change. If the ratio is 100 percent, then no students were lost or gained in the transition between grades. A ratio of less than 100 percent would indicate that students were lost, and a ratio greater than 100 percent would reveal a gain between grades.

An analysis of migration ratios in the Eldred School District [Appendix A-1] revealed that on average, the district loses students in transition to grades 3, 4, 6, 8, 10 and 11; average maintenance is seen to grades 5, 7 and 12, while average gains are noted to first, second and ninth grades. A review of each transition over the last ten years reflected fluctuating migrations, with variations accounted for by demographic factors, such as housing turnover, non-public school attendance and possible programmatic adjustments.

The transition trends in the district were analyzed and used to project enrollment. These ratios incorporate enrollment variables (housing, non-public school enrollment, population characteristics, birthrates, etc.) particular to the district. The development of trends is based on the demographic analysis presented in Section One. These ratios play an integral role in the enrollment projections, since the current grade enrollments are multiplied by them to project future grade level enrollments.

C. PROJECTED ENTERING COHORTS

The application of migration ratios to the current grade enrollments cannot provide the entering kindergarten cohorts, since they are not yet in the system. The Birth Persistence Method views the number of live births five years earlier than each historical district kindergarten grade. The relationship between births and district kindergarten is then used to derive projected entering kindergarten cohorts. This method is considered highly reliable when accurate district census data are unavailable. The Eldred School District’s kindergarten enrollments were analyzed in comparison to the number of births in Sullivan County, as well as the births within the school district [Appendix A-3].

New housing and housing turnover would normally bring younger women into the Eldred Central School District and subsequently increase the number of school-age children entering the district. This in-migration affects the percentage of children born five years earlier in Sullivan County that will enter the district. A weighted average historical kindergarten-to-birth ratio was applied against actual and estimated births in 2014 - 2023 to project the incoming district kindergarten for 2019 through 2028.


D. DISTRICT ENROLLMENT

The Eldred Central School District educates students in grades K - 12 within two district facilities. The district’s enrollment reflects the tendency to lose students in transition to grades 3, 4, 6, 8, 10 and 11 and maintain students in transition to grades 5, 7 and 12; average gains are noted to grades 1, 2 and 9. District enrollment is projected to decrease during the next ten years, with an overall loss of 73 students, or 14.7 percent, expected by 2028.

Figure 7 - Eldred CSD, K - 12 Enrollment

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28

Num

ber o

f Stu

dent

s

Year

Eldred Central School District Enrollment 2008 - 2028


As shown in Figure 8, the Eldred Central School District has shown an overall loss of 186 students, or 27.2 percent, between 2008 and 2018. Enrollment decreases were seen in all grade configurations during the ten year historical period. During the first half of the projection period, all grade configurations are forecasted to lose students. During the latter half of the projection period, the elementary (K - 6) grades are expected to remain stable, while the high school grades are expected to lose students. The projected 2028 enrollment of 425 students represents a loss of 73 students, or 14.7 percent, when compared to the current enrollment.

Figure 8 - Eldred Central School District Enrollment Change

-21

-52

-21 -6

-45

-68

-20 -26

-66

-120

-41 -32

-150

-75

0

75

08 - 13 13 - 18 18 - 23 23 - 28

# of

stu

dent

s ga

ined

or l

ost

comparative years

Eldred Central School District Enrollment Change, 2008 - 2028

K - 6 7 - 12 K - 12


District enrollment [Appendix A-1, A-4] consisted of 684 students in 2008. A gain the following year resulted in the historical peak enrollment of 686 students in 2009. Subsequently, losses in eight of the last nine years led to the enrollment of 498 students in 2018, representing a loss of 186 students, or 27.2 percent, during the historical period.

Smaller losses are projected in eight of the next ten years, leading to the forecasted 2028 enrollment of 425 students; this represents a loss of 73 students, or 14.7 percent, when compared to the current enrollment.

The projected enrollment can be attributed to several factors:

First, the kindergarten enrolled more than 40 students in five years of the historical period. There are 34 kindergarten students enrolled in 2018. Kindergarten enrollment is expected to be at a lower level than seen during the early years of the historical period, ranging within 30 - 36 students between 2019 and 2028 [Appendix A-3].

Second, the incoming kindergarten class has been smaller than the graduating twelfth grade class of the previous nine of the last ten years. This trend is expected to continue during the projection period, with anticipated losses of between 2 - 16 students expected in six of the next ten years due to this displacement [Appendix A-6].

Third, migration ratios show year-to-year fluctuations. On average, the district loses students in transition to grades 3, 4, 6, 8, 10 and 11; average maintenance is seen to grades 5, 7 and 12, while average gains are noted to first, second and ninth grades [Appendix A-1].

Fourth, the average grade level size decreased in grades K - 12 during 2013 - 2018 as compared to 2008 - 2013. Grade level size decreases are anticipated in grades K - 12 during 2018 - 2023. Grade level size decreases are anticipated in grades K - 1 and 3 - 12 during 2023 - 2028 [Appendix A-6].


Table 11 details the current and projected district enrollment for the district and each grade configuration. It is shown that George Ross Mackenzie Elementary School and Eldred Junior-Senior High School are expected to be at their projection period peak enrollments in 2019. Total district enrollment (K - 12) is also expected to be at its peak next year in 2019. It is noted that the peak enrollments are less than the current enrollments.

Table 11 - Projected Eldred CSD Enrollment

Year K - 6 7 - 12 K - 12

Actual 2018 258 240 498

Projected 2019 252* 231* 483*

2020 244 220 464

2021 245 220 465

2022 239 229 468

2023 237 220 457

2024 236 206 442

2025 233 205 438

2026 235 198 433

2027 236 194 430

2028 231 194 425

*= denotes peak enrollment during 2019 - 2028


ELEMENTARY GRADES ENROLLMENT (K - 6) [Appendix A-2, A-5] George Ross Mackenzie Elementary School

[Appendix A-7, A-8]

George Ross Mackenzie Elementary School enrolled 331 students in grades K - 6 in 2008. Gains in three of the next four years resulted in the historical peak enrollment of 341 students in 2012. Subsequently, losses in five of the last six years led to 258 students in 2018. This represents a loss of 73 students, or 22.1 percent, during the historical period. This school also houses a pre-kindergarten program taught in conjunction with the kindergarten program. There were 18 - 36 students enrolled each year between 2008 and 2017. However, due to budgetary constraints, pre-kindergarten enrollment this year was capped at 15 students.

Smaller decreases in K - 6 enrollment are expected during the next ten years; the forecasted 2028 enrollment of 231 students represents a loss of 27 students, or 10.5 percent. It is anticipated that the kindergarten enrollment will range between 30 - 36 students per year. (It has not yet been determined whether the pre-kindergarten program will be maintained for 2018-19).

George Ross Mackenzie Elementary School displays the average trend to gain students in progression to first and second grades, maintain students in transition to fifth grade and lose students in progression to third, fourth and sixth grades. The entering kindergarten class is expected to be smaller than the exiting sixth grade class of the previous year in seven of the next ten years. These factors will result in the projected enrollment pattern.

This school currently houses sixteen (16) sections for the instruction of two sections of pre-kindergarten/kindergarten, two sections each of grades 1 - 6 and two sections of self-contained special education. The average section size for this school is 18.7 students, with an average of 24.5 students in the pre-kindergarten/kindergarten sections; in grades 1 - 6, the average ranges from 17.0 students in first grade to 20.5 students in third grade. Enrollment projections suggest the need for 15 - 16 instructional sections (grades PK - 6), including two sections of self-contained special education, throughout the projection period, in order to maintain current class sizes in pre-kindergarten and kindergarten and maximum class sizes of 30 students in grades 1 - 6.

Figure 9 - George Ross Mackenzie (K - 6) ES Enrollment, 2008 - 2028

200

250

300

350

400

8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28

Num

ber o

f Stu

dent

s

Year


ELEMENTARY INSTRUCTIONAL SECTIONS

The current and projected need for elementary instructional sections is presented in Table 12. The district does not have a formal class size policy; therefore, these needs are based on the application of maintaining current class size guidelines in pre-kindergarten and kindergarten and a maximum class size of 30 students per section for grades 1 - 6.

It is shown that the district’s projected PK - 6 enrollment suggests the need for 15 - 16 sections per year, including two sections of self-contained special education, in order to accommodate the above stated class size guidelines. It is projected that the district’s K - 6 enrollment will require the same allocation of sections next year and again in 2028 [Appendix A-8].

Table 12 - Projected Eldred CSD Elementary Instructional Sections

Year (PK & K) (1 - 6) Total (PK - 6)

Actual 2018 2 14 16

Projected 2019 2 14 16

2020 2 14 16

2021 2 14 16

2022 2 14 16

2023 2 14 16

2024 2 14 16

2025 2 13 15

2026 2 14 16

2027 2 14 16

2028 2 14 16

Note: Continuation of the PK program is yet to be determined.


SECONDARY GRADES ENROLLMENT (9 - 12) [Appendix A-2, A-5] Eldred Junior-Senior High School [Appendix A-9]

Eldred Junior-Senior High School enrolled 353 students in grades 7 - 12 in 2008; this was the historical peak enrollment. Subsequently, losses in nine of the last ten years led to the enrollment of 240 students in 2018. This represents a loss of 113 students, or 32.0 percent, during the historical period.

Enrollment is expected to decrease in seven of the next ten years; the forecasted 2028 enrollment of 194 students represents a loss of 46 students, or 19.2 percent.

This school displays the average trend to gain students in progression to ninth grade, maintain students in transition to twelfth grade and lose students in progression to eighth, tenth and eleventh grades. The entering seventh grade class is expected to be smaller than the exiting twelfth grade class of the previous year in six of the next ten years. These factors will result in the projected enrollment pattern.

Figure 10 - Eldred Junior-Senior HS Enrollment, 2008 - 2028

150

200

250

300

350

400

8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28N

umbe

r of S

tude

nts

Year

Appendix A

==========================================================================================================================ELDRED CENTRAL SCHOOL DISTRICTHISTORICAL ENROLLMENT==========================================================================================================================GRADE 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018==========================================================================================================================PRE-KINDERGARTEN 23 21 31 18 35 27 19 36 28 23 15KINDERGARTEN 43 47 34 54 42 42 32 38 38 32 34FIRST 44 47 43 38 55 42 43 35 39 38 34SECOND 43 46 49 45 44 46 46 40 38 40 36THIRD 46 43 43 49 47 41 45 43 42 37 41FOURTH 48 50 41 46 48 43 45 45 40 40 36FIFTH 54 49 48 42 54 45 37 42 48 40 40SIXTH 53 55 47 47 51 51 44 36 40 49 37SEVENTH 58 55 58 49 46 49 51 45 33 40 49EIGHTH 50 60 55 61 49 46 44 51 43 31 42NINTH 77 59 63 56 64 57 46 45 53 45 28TENTH 51 67 50 55 49 54 51 50 45 51 32ELEVENTH 57 51 69 48 55 48 53 47 39 43 47TWELFTH 60 57 47 61 46 54 44 53 48 43 42==========================================================================================================================TOTAL K - 12 684 686 647 651 650 618 581 570 546 529 498% CHANGE 0.3% -5.7% 0.6% -0.2% -4.9% -6.0% -1.9% -4.2% -3.1% -5.9%TOTAL w/PK 707 707 678 669 685 645 600 606 574 552 513==========================================================================================================================DISTRICT MIGRATION 08 - 09 09 - 10 10 - 11 11 - 12 12 - 13 13 - 14 14 - 15 15 - 16 16 - 17 17 - 18 AVERAGE==========================================================================================================================K - 1 109.3% 91.5% 111.8% 101.9% 100.0% 102.4% 109.4% 102.6% 100.0% 106.3% 104.6%1 - 2 104.5% 104.3% 104.7% 115.8% 83.6% 109.5% 93.0% 108.6% 102.6% 94.7% 101.7%2 - 3 100.0% 93.5% 100.0% 104.4% 93.2% 97.8% 93.5% 105.0% 97.4% 102.5% 99.2%3 - 4 108.7% 95.3% 107.0% 98.0% 91.5% 109.8% 100.0% 93.0% 95.2% 97.3% 96.4%4 - 5 102.1% 96.0% 102.4% 117.4% 93.8% 86.0% 93.3% 106.7% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%5 - 6 101.9% 95.9% 97.9% 121.4% 94.4% 97.8% 97.3% 95.2% 102.1% 92.5% 97.0%6 - 7 103.8% 105.5% 104.3% 97.9% 96.1% 100.0% 102.3% 91.7% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%7 - 8 103.4% 100.0% 105.2% 100.0% 100.0% 89.8% 100.0% 95.6% 93.9% 105.0% 98.6%8 - 9 118.0% 105.0% 101.8% 104.9% 116.3% 100.0% 102.3% 103.9% 104.7% 90.3% 103.2%9 - 10 87.0% 84.7% 87.3% 87.5% 84.4% 89.5% 108.7% 100.0% 96.2% 71.1% 93.1%10 - 11 100.0% 103.0% 96.0% 100.0% 98.0% 98.1% 92.2% 78.0% 95.6% 92.2% 94.5%11 - 12 100.0% 92.2% 88.4% 95.8% 98.2% 91.7% 100.0% 102.1% 110.3% 97.7% 100.3%==========================================================================================================================

Prepared by Western Suffolk BOCES, Office of School Planning and Research, for Eldred CSD, 2018-19

A-1

==========================================================================================================================ELDRED CENTRAL SCHOOL DISTRICTHISTORICAL ENROLLMENT BY GRADE CONFIGURATION==========================================================================================================================GRADE 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018==========================================================================================================================PRE-KINDERGARTEN 23 21 31 18 35 27 19 36 28 23 15KINDERGARTEN 43 47 34 54 42 42 32 38 38 32 34FIRST 44 47 43 38 55 42 43 35 39 38 34SECOND 43 46 49 45 44 46 46 40 38 40 36THIRD 46 43 43 49 47 41 45 43 42 37 41FOURTH 48 50 41 46 48 43 45 45 40 40 36FIFTH 54 49 48 42 54 45 37 42 48 40 40SIXTH 53 55 47 47 51 51 44 36 40 49 37==========================================================================================================================TOTAL K - 6 331 337 305 321 341 310 292 279 285 276 258% CHANGE 1.8% -9.5% 5.2% 6.2% -9.1% -5.8% -4.5% 2.2% -3.2% -6.5%TOTAL PK - 6 354 358 336 339 376 337 311 315 313 299 273==========================================================================================================================SEVENTH 58 55 58 49 46 49 51 45 33 40 49EIGHTH 50 60 55 61 49 46 44 51 43 31 42NINTH 77 59 63 56 64 57 46 45 53 45 28TENTH 51 67 50 55 49 54 51 50 45 51 32ELEVENTH 57 51 69 48 55 48 53 47 39 43 47TWELFTH 60 57 47 61 46 54 44 53 48 43 42==========================================================================================================================TOTAL 7 -12 353 349 342 330 309 308 289 291 261 253 240% CHANGE -1.1% -2.0% -3.5% -6.4% -0.3% -6.2% 0.7% -10.3% -3.1% -5.1%==========================================================================================================================TOTAL K - 12 684 686 647 651 650 618 581 570 546 529 498% CHANGE 0.3% -5.7% 0.6% -0.2% -4.9% -6.0% -1.9% -4.2% -3.1% -5.9%TOTAL w/PK 707 707 678 669 685 645 600 606 574 552 513==========================================================================================================================


A-2

==========================================================================================================================ELDRED CENTRAL SCHOOL DISTRICTKINDERGARTEN PROJECTIONS====================== ====================================================== Ratios =================

Birth Year

Sullivan County SD Enrollment

Year District K K/Conty Births

==========================================================================================================================2003 911 35 2008 43 0.04722004 837 39 2009 47 0.05622005 873 39 2010 34 0.03892006 969 57 2011 54 0.05572007 948 47 2012 42 0.04432008 959 43 2013 42 0.04382009 861 45 2014 32 0.03722010 831 40 2015 38 0.04572011 808 50 2016 38 0.04702012 949 34 2017 32 0.03372013 837 44 2018 34 0.04062014 785 32 2019 302015 792 32 2020 312016 859 42 2021 36

est. 2017 821 2022 32est. 2018 817 2023 32est. 2019 824 2024 32est. 2020 832 2025 32est. 2021 825 2026 32est. 2022 826 2027 32 0.0446est. 2023 828 2028 32 historical average

==========================================================================================================================

Births


A-3

==========================================================================================================================ELDRED CENTRAL SCHOOL DISTRICTPROJECTED ENROLLMENT==========================================================================================================================GRADE 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028====================== Actual ==========================================================================================PRE-KINDERGARTEN 15 18 24 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21KINDERGARTEN 34 30 31 36 32 32 32 32 32 32 32FIRST 34 36 31 32 38 33 33 33 33 33 33SECOND 36 35 37 32 33 39 34 34 34 34 34THIRD 41 36 35 37 32 33 39 34 34 34 34FOURTH 36 40 35 34 36 31 32 38 33 33 33FIFTH 40 36 40 35 34 36 31 32 38 33 33SIXTH 37 39 35 39 34 33 35 30 31 37 32SEVENTH 49 37 39 35 39 34 33 35 30 31 37EIGHTH 42 48 36 38 35 38 34 33 35 30 31NINTH 28 43 50 37 39 36 39 35 34 36 31TENTH 32 26 40 47 34 36 34 36 33 32 34ELEVENTH 47 30 25 38 44 32 34 32 34 31 30TWELFTH 42 47 30 25 38 44 32 34 32 34 31==========================================================================================================================TOTAL K - 12 498 483 464 465 468 457 442 438 433 430 425% CHANGE -3.0% -3.9% 0.2% 0.6% -2.4% -3.3% -0.9% -1.1% -0.7% -1.2%TOTAL w/PK 513 501 488 486 489 478 463 459 454 451 446==========================================================================================================================Note: Shaded area denoted grade-level (K - 12) students already enrolled in the school system.Note: Due to budgetary constraints, continuation of the PK program is yet to be determined.==========================================================================================================================


A-4

==========================================================================================================================ELDRED CENTRAL SCHOOL DISTRICTPROJECTED ENROLLMENT BY GRADE CONFIGURATION==========================================================================================================================GRADE 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028====================== Actual ==========================================================================================PRE-KINDERGARTEN 15 18 24 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21KINDERGARTEN 34 30 31 36 32 32 32 32 32 32 32FIRST 34 36 31 32 38 33 33 33 33 33 33SECOND 36 35 37 32 33 39 34 34 34 34 34THIRD 41 36 35 37 32 33 39 34 34 34 34FOURTH 36 40 35 34 36 31 32 38 33 33 33FIFTH 40 36 40 35 34 36 31 32 38 33 33SIXTH 37 39 35 39 34 33 35 30 31 37 32==========================================================================================================================TOTAL K - 6 258 252 244 245 239 237 236 233 235 236 231% CHANGE -2.3% -3.2% 0.4% -2.4% -0.8% -0.4% -1.3% 0.9% 0.4% -2.1%TOTAL PK - 6 273 270 268 266 260 258 257 254 256 257 252==========================================================================================================================SEVENTH 49 37 39 35 39 34 33 35 30 31 37EIGHTH 42 48 36 38 35 38 34 33 35 30 31NINTH 28 43 50 37 39 36 39 35 34 36 31TENTH 32 26 40 47 34 36 34 36 33 32 34ELEVENTH 47 30 25 38 44 32 34 32 34 31 30TWELFTH 42 47 30 25 38 44 32 34 32 34 31==========================================================================================================================TOTAL 7 -12 240 231 220 220 229 220 206 205 198 194 194% CHANGE -3.8% -4.8% 0.0% 4.1% -3.9% -6.4% -0.5% -3.4% -2.0% 0.0%==========================================================================================================================TOTAL K - 12 498 483 464 465 468 457 442 438 433 430 425% CHANGE -3.0% -3.9% 0.2% 0.6% -2.4% -3.3% -0.9% -1.1% -0.7% -1.2%TOTAL w/PK 513 501 488 486 489 478 463 459 454 451 446==========================================================================================================================


A-5

===========================================================================================================================ELDRED CENTRAL SCHOOL DISTRICTAVERAGE GRADE LEVEL SIZE===========================================================================================================================

1 2 3 408 - 13 13 - 18 18 - 23 23 - 28 2/1 3/2 4/3

===========================================================================================================================KINDERGARTEN 44 36 33 32 -18.2% -8.3% -3.0%FIRST 45 39 34 33 -13.3% -12.8% -2.9%SECOND 46 41 35 35 -10.9% -14.6% 0.0%THIRD 45 42 36 35 -6.7% -14.3% -2.8%FOURTH 46 42 35 33 -8.7% -16.7% -5.7%FIFTH 49 42 37 34 -14.3% -11.9% -8.1%SIXTH 51 43 36 33 -15.7% -16.3% -8.3%SEVENTH 53 45 39 33 -15.1% -13.3% -15.4%EIGHTH 54 43 40 34 -20.4% -7.0% -15.0%NINTH 63 46 39 35 -27.0% -15.2% -10.3%TENTH 54 47 36 34 -13.0% -23.4% -5.6%ELEVENTH 55 46 36 32 -16.4% -21.7% -11.1%TWELFTH 54 47 38 35 -13.0% -19.1% -7.9%===========================================================================================================================DISPLACEMENT BETWEEN ENTERING & EXITING GRADES

Year Grade 12 Year K Difference===========================================================================================================================

2008 60 2009 47 -132009 57 2010 34 -232010 47 2011 54 72011 61 2012 42 -192012 46 2013 42 -42013 54 2014 32 -222014 44 2015 38 -62015 53 2016 38 -152016 48 2017 32 -162017 43 2018 34 -92018 42 2019 30 -122019 47 2020 31 -162020 30 2021 36 62021 25 2022 32 72022 38 2023 32 -62023 44 2024 32 -122024 32 2025 32 02025 34 2026 32 -22026 32 2027 32 02027 34 2028 32 -2

===========================================================================================================================Average Difference 2008 - 2013 -10Average Difference 2013 - 2018 -14Average Difference 2018 - 2023 -4Average Difference 2023 - 2028 -3

===========================================================================================================================

GRADE change


A-6

==============================================================================================================================GEORGE ROSS MACKENZIE ELEMENTARY SCHOOLHISTORICAL ENROLLMENT==============================================================================================================================GRADE 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018==============================================================================================================================PRE-KINDERGARTEN 23 21 31 18 35 27 19 36 28 23 15KINDERGARTEN 43 47 34 54 42 42 32 38 38 32 34FIRST 44 47 43 38 55 42 43 35 39 38 34SECOND 43 46 49 45 44 46 46 40 38 40 36THIRD 46 43 43 49 47 41 45 43 42 37 41FOURTH 48 50 41 46 48 43 45 45 40 40 36FIFTH 54 49 48 42 54 45 37 42 48 40 40SIXTH 53 55 47 47 51 51 44 36 40 49 37==============================================================================================================================TOTAL 331 337 305 321 341 310 292 279 285 276 258% CHANGE 1.8% -9.5% 5.2% 6.2% -9.1% -5.8% -4.5% 2.2% -3.2% -6.5%TOTAL w/PK 354 358 336 339 376 337 311 315 313 299 273==============================================================================================================================MIGRATION 08 - 09 09 - 10 10 - 11 11 - 12 12 - 13 13 - 14 14 - 15 15 - 16 16 - 17 17 - 18 AVERAGE==============================================================================================================================K - 1 109.3% 91.5% 111.8% 101.9% 100.0% 102.4% 109.4% 102.6% 100.0% 106.3% 104.6%1 - 2 104.5% 104.3% 104.7% 115.8% 83.6% 109.5% 93.0% 108.6% 102.6% 94.7% 101.7%2 - 3 100.0% 93.5% 100.0% 104.4% 93.2% 97.8% 93.5% 105.0% 97.4% 102.5% 99.2%3 - 4 108.7% 95.3% 107.0% 98.0% 91.5% 109.8% 100.0% 93.0% 95.2% 97.3% 96.4%4 - 5 102.1% 96.0% 102.4% 117.4% 93.8% 86.0% 93.3% 106.7% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%5 - 6 101.9% 95.9% 97.9% 121.4% 94.4% 97.8% 97.3% 95.2% 102.1% 92.5% 97.0%==============================================================================================================================GEORGE ROSS MACKENZIE ELEMENTARY SCHOOLPROJECTED ENROLLMENT==============================================================================================================================GRADE 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028======================== Actual ============================================================================================PRE-KINDERGARTEN 15 18 24 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21KINDERGARTEN 34 30 31 36 32 32 32 32 32 32 32FIRST 34 36 31 32 38 33 33 33 33 33 33SECOND 36 35 37 32 33 39 34 34 34 34 34THIRD 41 36 35 37 32 33 39 34 34 34 34FOURTH 36 40 35 34 36 31 32 38 33 33 33FIFTH 40 36 40 35 34 36 31 32 38 33 33SIXTH 37 39 35 39 34 33 35 30 31 37 32==============================================================================================================================TOTAL 258 252 244 245 239 237 236 233 235 236 231% CHANGE -2.3% -3.2% 0.4% -2.4% -0.8% -0.4% -1.3% 0.9% 0.4% -2.1%TOTAL w/PK 273 270 268 266 260 258 257 254 256 257 252==============================================================================================================================


A-7

=============================================================================================================================GEORGE ROSS MACKENZIE ELEMENTARY SCHOOLPROJECTED ENROLLMENT - SECTIONAL ANALYSIS=============================================================================================================================GRADE 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028======================== Actual ===========================================================================================PK & K 49 48 55 57 53 53 53 53 53 53 53Sections 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2Avg Section Size 24.5 24.0 27.5 28.5 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.5=============================================================================================================================FIRST (30) 34 36 31 32 38 33 33 33 33 33 33Sections 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2Avg Section Size 17.0 18.0 15.5 16.0 19.0 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5=============================================================================================================================SECOND (30) 36 35 37 32 33 39 34 34 34 34 34Sections 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2Avg Section Size 18.0 17.5 18.5 16.0 16.5 19.5 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0=============================================================================================================================THIRD (30) 41 36 35 37 32 33 39 34 34 34 34Sections 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2Avg Section Size 20.5 18.0 17.5 18.5 16.0 16.5 19.5 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0=============================================================================================================================FOURTH (30) 36 40 35 34 36 31 32 38 33 33 33Sections 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2Avg Section Size 18.0 20.0 17.5 17.0 18.0 15.5 16.0 19.0 16.5 16.5 16.5=============================================================================================================================FIFTH (30) 40 36 40 35 34 36 31 32 38 33 33Sections 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2Avg Section Size 20.0 18.0 20.0 17.5 17.0 18.0 15.5 16.0 19.0 16.5 16.5=============================================================================================================================SIXTH (30) 37 39 35 39 34 33 35 30 31 37 32Sections 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2Avg Section Size 18.5 19.5 17.5 19.5 17.0 16.5 17.5 30.0 15.5 18.5 16.0=============================================================================================================================Graded SC SPED in grade level countSections 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2=============================================================================================================================Total Grades 1 - 6 Enrollment 224 222 213 209 207 205 204 201 203 204 199Total Grades 1 - 6 Sections 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 14 14 14Avg Section Size 18.7 18.5 17.8 17.4 17.3 17.1 17.0 19.3 16.9 17.0 16.6=============================================================================================================================Total PK - 6 Enrollment 273 270 268 266 260 258 257 254 256 257 252Total PK - 6 Sections 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 15 16 16 16=============================================================================================================================Note: PK & K classes in 2018-19 are combined program with 3 teachers and 4 para professionals, which assumes to be continued for future years.Note: SC SPED students are included in the grade level count. The actual average section sizes may be lower than shown.Note: The boxed cells indicate the average section size is approaching the maximum class size for the grade level.=============================================================================================================================

The district does not have formal class size policy.Projected sections are based on the maximum class sizes of 30 for grades 1 - 6.


A-8

==========================================================================================================================ELDRED JUNIOR-SENIOR HIGH SCHOOLHISTORICAL ENROLLMENT==========================================================================================================================GRADE 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018==========================================================================================================================SEVENTH 58 55 58 49 46 49 51 45 33 40 49EIGHTH 50 60 55 61 49 46 44 51 43 31 42NINTH 77 59 63 56 64 57 46 45 53 45 28TENTH 51 67 50 55 49 54 51 50 45 51 32ELEVENTH 57 51 69 48 55 48 53 47 39 43 47TWELFTH 60 57 47 61 46 54 44 53 48 43 42==========================================================================================================================TOTAL 353 349 342 330 309 308 289 291 261 253 240% CHANGE -1.1% -2.0% -3.5% -6.4% -0.3% -6.2% 0.7% -10.3% -3.1% -5.1%==========================================================================================================================MIGRATION 08 - 09 09 - 10 10 - 11 11 - 12 12 - 13 13 - 14 14 - 15 15 - 16 16 - 17 17 - 18 AVERAGE==========================================================================================================================7 - 8 103.4% 100.0% 105.2% 100.0% 100.0% 89.8% 100.0% 95.6% 93.9% 105.0% 98.6%8 - 9 118.0% 105.0% 101.8% 104.9% 116.3% 100.0% 102.3% 103.9% 104.7% 90.3% 103.2%9 - 10 87.0% 84.7% 87.3% 87.5% 84.4% 89.5% 108.7% 100.0% 96.2% 71.1% 93.1%10 - 11 100.0% 103.0% 96.0% 100.0% 98.0% 98.1% 92.2% 78.0% 95.6% 92.2% 94.5%11 - 12 100.0% 92.2% 88.4% 95.8% 98.2% 91.7% 100.0% 102.1% 110.3% 97.7% 100.3%====================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================ELDRED JUNIOR-SENIOR HIGH SCHOOLPROJECTED ENROLLMENT==========================================================================================================================GRADE 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028====================== Actual ==========================================================================================SEVENTH 49 37 39 35 39 34 33 35 30 31 37EIGHTH 42 48 36 38 35 38 34 33 35 30 31NINTH 28 43 50 37 39 36 39 35 34 36 31TENTH 32 26 40 47 34 36 34 36 33 32 34ELEVENTH 47 30 25 38 44 32 34 32 34 31 30TWELFTH 42 47 30 25 38 44 32 34 32 34 31==========================================================================================================================TOTAL 240 231 220 220 229 220 206 205 198 194 194% CHANGE -3.8% -4.8% 0.0% 4.1% -3.9% -6.4% -0.5% -3.4% -2.0% 0.0%==========================================================================================================================


A-9

Appendix B

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28

Stud

ent E

nrol

lmen

t

Year

Eldred Central School District Enrollment: Grades K - 12

B-1

200

250

300

350

400

8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28

Stud

ent E

nrol

lmen

t

Year

Eldred Central School District Enrollment: Grades K - 6

B-2

150

200

250

300

350

400

8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28

Stud

ent E

nrol

lmen

t

Year

Eldred Central School District Enrollment: Grades 7 - 12

B-3

-21

-52

-21

-6

-45

-68

-20 -26

-66

-120

-41 -32

-150

-75

0

75

08 - 13 13 - 18 18 - 23 23 - 28

# of

Stu

dent

s G

aine

d or

Los

t

Comparative Years

K - 6 7 - 12 K - 12

Eldred Central School District Enrollment Change 2008 - 2028

B-4

Mr. Salvatore Marinello, President Ms. Jeanette Santos, Vice President

Ms. Mildred Browne Mr. Sydney Finkelstein

Ms. Ilene Herz, Esq Mr. Peter Wunsch

Ms. Maryann Zumpano Ms. Joanne Klein, District Clerk

Mr. Michael Flynn

Chief Operating Officer Ms. Angelique Johnson-Dingle

District Superintendent

Division of Instructional Support Services

Office of School Planning & Research 31 Lee Avenue

Wheatley Heights, NY 11798 631-595-6802

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