Composite indicators for monitoring regional development seven … · 2015-12-10 · A comprehensive view of progress – from economic growth to development Composite indicators

MARIA Manuel PINHO Statistics Portugal

Unit for the Coordination of Territorial Statistics

[email protected]

Composite indicators for monitoring regional development – seven years of Portuguese experience

UNECE Seminar on the Role of National Statistical Offices in the

Production of Leading, Composite and Sentiment Indicators

8-10 December 2015, Palais des Nations, Geneva

mailto:[email protected]

A comprehensive view of progress – from economic growth to development

Composite indicators – a new opportunity for National Statistical Systems

ISDR – from an experimental project to a policy driven statistic

A challenge for Statistics Portugal dissemination strategy

AGENDA

UNECE, 8-10 December 2015



Competitiveness

Cohesion Environmental quality

Overall index of regional

development

• beyond GDP and other traditional indicators

• a more comprehensive view of progress

• a multidimensional approach of development

the ability to penetrate markets and generate economic growth

a broad view of both environmental living conditions in the region, and environmental sustainability of development process

acceptable and equitable living conditions for a sustainable economic and social reproduction and territorial attractiveness



At the same time … regional development as the joint and interactive product of conditions, processes and outcomes

→ of the conditions for a better regional performance

→ of agents’ behaviour, especially private and public policies, which

represent the processes intended to make the best use of the existing

conditions

→ which, in turn, lead to outcomes, which express the effectiveness in the

improvement of regional well-being and sustainability

Regional development

Competitiveness Cohesion Environmental

quality

Co

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Pro

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Pro

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Conceptualization vs. New metrics

Time Space

Mutable concepts over



→ going beyond the standard statistical operations and

demanding the assimilation of new concepts and

methodologies

→ providing the results together with a metadata set that

both reveals the methodology adopted and clearly delimits

the aim and the analytical potentialities of the results


• relevance of composite indicators within this multidimensional approach

• ability to integrate large amounts of information into easily understood formats and transform information into knowledge → both for analytical and political purposes

• are becoming widely used to assess territorial units’ performance in various areas

A new challenge for National Statistical

Systems

based on a partnership with a

national public agency for

development planning

(MAOTDR/DPP)

taking advantage of the expertise

of both institutions


PT regional development composite indicator: ISDR

Statistics Portugal

statistical production

Agency for Development

Planning

territorial analysis

Provision of a statistical tool

to monitor regional development

to inform in a simple manner both citizens and policymakers about the progress achieved with regard to development

• first release in 2009 • 2004 and 2006 data • results for the 30 NUTS 3 regions • estimations for Portugal and NUTS 2

Experimental statistics




the robustness of the composite indicator was supported by a

sensitivity analysis and a joint debate with a group of experts

in the fields of regional development and statistical analysis

Conceptual relevance of the primary indicators → theoretical and statistical

concepts, principal component analysis, correlation analysis

Methodological options → normalization procedures (in a static scenario

and in a dynamic one), aggregating and weighting procedures

Joint analysis of alternative scenarios → regional volatility, sources of

regional variation

Ability to synthesize phenomena → comparison with other composite

indicators, ‘fit to purpose’ analysis



Selection of (65) individual indicators → conceptual relevance

• competitiveness – 25 indicators

• cohesion – 25 indicators

• environmental quality – 15 indicators

Data collection → 65 indicators | Portuguese NUTS level 3 regions

Normalization of the primary indicators → statistical standardization and minmax rescaling (with the minimum and maximum values extracted from the overall dataset)

Sources → standard statistics (53) and administrative data (12)


Aggregation and weighting procedures → non-weighted average

• individual indicators level → dimensions level

• dimensions level → overall index level

Estimation of national and NUTS 2 scores → population weighted average

4 composite indicators → Portugal = 100

• Competitiveness index

• Cohesion index

• Environmental quality index

• Overall index of regional development


After the release of the first exercise of

ISDR, the debate continued with

national and regional authorities

reinforcing the advantages of composite

indicators as tools that inform in a simple manner

about complex phenomena and their progress

stressing the importance of providing a statistical

tool for direct policy use on an annual basis

→ regular release

In June 2015, results were produced for the 1st time for the new Portuguese NUTS 3 and the dissemination time lag was reduced to 1,5 years

→ relevant territorial breakdown

→ reduced dissemination time lag

the conceptual framework of the composite indicator must meet the needs of policymaking → assessing territorial cohesion




• the 65 primary basic indicators were mainly selected from the 2007-2013 PT-

NSRF context indicators set

• since the first release, ISDR is being using for monitoring the implementation of

the 2007-2013 PT-NSRF and included in the Portuguese annual reports on the

execution of the EU structural funds

• ISDR was considered as an ex ante conditionality for the 2014-2020 Portuguese

Partnership Agreement – Portugal 2020

• in 2013, the new local finance law assigned ISDR with a new function in terms of

policy decision-making

… from the technical sphere to the centre of the political debate → a

new challenge for Statistics Portugal

A new place for ISDR …

50 K m0

C ompe ti tiv idade 20 10

Ambiente 2 010

Grupos 201 0

Grupo 1

Grupo 2

Grupo 3

Grupo 5

Grupo 4

Grupo 6

C oesão 2 010

I Globa l 201 0

103,6

P T=100

89,7

< Med ia na

< Med ia na

> Med ia na

> Med ia na

>= M edian a102,5

P T=100

96,7

< Med ia na

< Med ia na

>= M edian a

> = M ediana1 04 ,9

P T = 100

9 6,1

< Mediana

< Mediana

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100,3

P T=100

97,5

< Med ia na

< Med ia na

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>= M edian a

93,7

95,4

97,3

98,7

1º qu inti l

2º qu inti l

3º qu inti l4º qu inti l

5º qu inti l

85,9

89,2

92,2

98,2

1º qu inti l

2º qu inti l

3º qu inti l

4º qu inti l

5º qu inti l

95,8

98,7

100,9

106,5

1º qu inti l

2º qu inti l


5º qu inti l

90,4

94,6

99,0

102,0

1º qu inti l

2º qu inti l


5º qu inti l

1 2 1 3 11 7

Fr eq uên c ias

1 1 2 3 7 11

Group 1

Group 2

Group 3

Group 5

Group 4

Group 6

Grupo 1

Grupo 2

Grupo 3

Grupo 5

Grupo 4

Grupo 61 1 2 3 7 11

Fr eq uen c ies

9 3,7

9 5,4

9 7,3

9 8,7

Qt1

Qt2

Qt3Qt4

Qt5

93,7

95,4

97,3

98,7

1º

2º 3º

4º

5º

85,9

89,2

92,2

98,2

1º

2º

3º 4º

5º

Quintiles

93,795,4

97,3

1º 2º

3º

4º

Quintis

98,7

93,7

95,4

97,3

1º

2º

3º

4º

Quintiles

98,7

70 80 90 100 110 120

Alto Tâmega

RA Açores

Douro

Tâmega e Sousa

RA Madeira

Algarve

Terras de TM

Viseu Dão Lafões

Lezíria do Tejo

Oeste

Alentejo Litoral

Médio Tejo

Beira Baixa

Alto Alentejo

Baixo Alentejo

Alentejo Central

Beiras e S. Estrela

Ave

Cávado

Região de Coimbra

Região de Leiria

Região de Aveiro

AM Porto

Alto Minho

AM Lisboa

100PT

Overall index of regional development

(Portugal = 100) | NUTS 3, 2013

Composite indicators – a new challenge

for National Statistical Systems

Overall index of regional development, competitiveness, cohesion and environmental quality: performance in relation to the national average

(Portugal = 100) | NUTS 3, 2013

50 K m0

C ompe ti tiv idade 20 10

Ambiente 2 010

Grupos 201 0

Grupo 1

Grupo 2

Grupo 3

Grupo 5

Grupo 4

Grupo 6

C oesão 2 010

I Globa l 201 0

103,6

P T=100

89,7

< Med ia na

< Med ia na

> Med ia na

> Med ia na

>= M edian a102,5

P T=100

96,7

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< Med ia na

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> = M ediana1 04 ,9

P T = 100

9 6,1

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< Mediana

> = M ediana

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P T=100

97,5

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< Med ia na

>= M edian a

>= M edian a

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95,4

97,3

98,7

1º qu inti l

2º qu inti l


5º qu inti l

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89,2

92,2

98,2

1º qu inti l

2º qu inti l

3º qu inti l

4º qu inti l

5º qu inti l

95,8

98,7

100,9

106,5

1º qu inti l

2º qu inti l


5º qu inti l

90,4

94,6

99,0

102,0

1º qu inti l

2º qu inti l


5º qu inti l

1 2 1 3 11 7

Group 1

Group 2

Group 3

Group 5

Group 4

Group 6

9 3,7

9 5,4

9 7,3

9 8,7

Qt1

Qt2

Qt3Qt4

Qt5

9 3,7

9 5,4

9 7,3

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P2 0

P4 0

P6 0

P8 0

93,7

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1º

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1º

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4º

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90,4

94,6

99,0

1º

2º

3º

4º

Quintis

102,0

90,4

94,699,0

1º

2º 3º

4º

Quintiles

102,0

95,898,7

100,9

1º 2º

3º

4º

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106,5

95,8

98,7100,9

1º

2º 3º

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106,5

1 2 1 3 11 7

Fr eq uen c ies

ISDR > 100 ISDR < 100

COMP > 100

COES > 100

AMB > 100

AM Lisboa

Gro

up

1

COMP > 100

COES > 100

AMB < 100

Região de

Aveiro

Gro

up

2

Gro

up

4

COMP > 100

COES < 100

AMB > 100

COMP < 100

COES > 100

AMB > 100

Alto Minho Alentejo Central Médio Tejo

Região de Leiria

COMP > 100

COES < 100

AMB < 100

AM Porto

Gro

up

3

Gro

up

5 COMP < 100

COES > 100

AMB < 100

Cávado Região de

Coimbra

COMP < 100

COES < 100

AMB > 100

Alto Alentejo

Ave

Baixo Alentejo

Beira Baixa

Beiras e S. Estrela

RA Açores

RA Madeira

Tâmega e Sousa

Terras de TM

COMP < 100

COES < 100

AMB < 100

Algarve

Alentejo Litoral

Alto Tâmega

Douro

Lezíria do Tejo

Oeste

Gro

up

6

75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115

Environmental quality

Cohesion

Competitiveness

Overall index

Composite indicators – a new challenge

for National Statistical Systems

Overall index of regional development, competitiveness, cohesion and environmental quality

(Portugal = 100) | NUTS 3, 2013

PT = 100


a press release – a description of the results supported by graphical

elements and complemented with a brief description of the methodology

web indicators – four indicators (global development, competitiveness,

cohesion and environmental quality) feeding the online database at

Statistics Portugal website

a methodological document – a detailed description of the methodology

following a predefined template used for all types of statistical projects


Follows the standard multiple dissemination formats adopted for traditional statistical projects

https://www.ine.pt/xportal/xmain?PORTLET_ID=JSP&xpgid=ine_destaques&xlang=en&xpid=INE&PORTLET_NAME=ine_cont_header_dest_en&PORTLET_UID=

https://www.ine.pt/xportal/xmain?xpid=INE&xpgid=ine_base_dados&xlang=en&

http://smi.ine.pt/DocumentacaoMetodologica?clear=True&xlang=en&

Transparency → the challenge to assure that all primary data is available

(confidentiality, administrative sources, …)

Contextual analysis → the challenge to provide user-friendly tools to enable

regional performance comparisons and to obtain results according to users

weighting options

Methodological documentation → the challenge to discuss the metadata

and quality standards suitable to statistical processes involving multiple

data sources

Production labelling → the challenge to fully adopt the 'fit for purpose'

approach and its differentiated quality assurance consequences


Issues arising from the specificity of composite indicators


MARIA Manuel PINHO Statistics Portugal

Unit for the Coordination of Territorial Statistics

[email protected]

Composite indicators for monitoring regional development – seven years of Portuguese experience

UNECE Seminar on the Role of National Statistical Offices in the

Production of Leading, Composite and Sentiment Indicators

8-10 December 2015, Palais des Nations, Geneva

mailto:[email protected]

Documents

Composite indicators for monitoring regional development seven … · 2015-12-10 · A comprehensive view of progress – from economic growth to development Composite indicators