Company Report - content.icicidirect.comcontent.icicidirect.com/mailimages/Bombay.pdf · 2 For private circulation only Bombay Rayon Fashions Ltd (BRFL) was promoted by Janardan Agarwal

1For private circulation only

Company ProfileRegistered Office

D-1st floor,Oberoi Garden Est,Chandivali Farma Road,Andheri (E),Mumbai - 400072MaharashtraTel: 91-22-66955566

Website: www.bombayrayon.com

Chariman: Prashant AgarwalBusiness Group: Not Applicable

Shareholding Pattern as on 30/06/2006

Major Holders %

Promoters 55.86

Institutional Investors 23.33

Other Investors 10.55

General Public 10.26

Stock Data

Market Cap (Rs crore) 822

Shares Outstanding (in crore) 4.9

52-week High (Rs) 258.75

52-week Low (Rs) 79.75

Avg. Volume 320,742

Absolute Return 3 mth (%) 4.16

Absolute Return 6 mth (%) 35.58

Sensex Return 3 mth (%) 21.13

Sensex Return 6 mth (%) 10.25

Bharat [email protected]

ICICI Web Trade Limited,2nd Floor, Stanrose House,Appasaheb Marathe Road,Prabhadevi, Mumbai - 400 025

Performance Chart

Textiles

September 27, 2006ICICIdirect Code: BOMRAY

Company Report

For private circulation only

Bombay Rayon Fashions Ltd (BRFL), one of the oldest fabric manu-facturers in the country, is transforming itself into an integratedgarment manufacturer. It is slated to become the country’s largestshirt manufacturer. The aggressive expansion and strategic shift tohigh-margin garments will catapult BRFL into a high-growth orbit.We rate the stock an OUTPERFORMER.

KEY TRIGGERS

! Expansion to catalyse revenue growth

BRFL is expanding fabric capacity from 14.4 million metres per annum inFY06 to 21 million metres pa in FY07E. Garment manufacturing capacityis slated to go up from 40,000 pieces per day to 100,000 pieces per day. Itis also setting up a fabric-processing facility with a capacity of 35 millionmeters pa and a dyeing unit with a capacity of 1.4 MMTPA. We believethese steps will result in accelerated growth in revenues. We expect thecompany to register a 100.1% CAGR in sales over FY06-FY08E.q V

! Shift towards high-margin garments

The company is shifting focus from low-margin fabrics to high-margingarments. We expect garment sales to grow at a CAGR of 260.3% overFY06-FY08E and contribution to surge from 24% in FY06 to 78% in FY08E.The shift towards becoming an integrated garment company is expectedto boost operating margins from 16.8% in FY06 to 19.5% in FY08E.

! Low turnaround-time

BRFL is vertically integrated from fabric manufacturing to garmenting.This enables it to have the best order turnaround time in the industry of55-60 days as against the industry norm of 90-120 days. After the expan-sion, it will be able to further reduce lead-time to almost 30 days. Ability todeliver orders at a fast pace would enable it accept short-duration orderswhich would aid in getting a premium in realizations.

VALUATIONS

At the current price of Rs 165, the stock trades at a P/E of 19.3x its FY07EEPS of Rs 8.53 and 9.3x its FY08E EPS of Rs 17.71. On an EV/EBITDAbasis, it trades at 12.9x for FY07E and 6.9x for FY08E. On a comparative P/E valuation, it is trading at a 21% discount to Gokaldas Exports, which isin a similar line of business. We initiate coverage with a 12-15 month pricetarget of Rs 212, an upside of 29% from current levels.

Current PriceRs 165

Target PriceRs 212

Potential upside29%

Time Frame15-12 mths

Bombay Rayon FashionsOUTPERFORMER

Exhibit 1: Key Financials

Year to March 31 FY05 FY06 FY07E FY08E

Net Profit (Rs crore) 7.26 18.18 41.76 86.73

Shares in issue (in crore) 3.30 4.90 4.90 4.90

EPS (Rs) 2.20 3.71 8.53 17.71

% Growth 68.50 129.70 107.70

P/E (x) 74.90 44.50 19.40 9.30

Price / Book (x) 11.85 5.27 4.27 2.99

EV/EBIDTA (x) 73.53 26.63 12.94 6.93

RoNW (%) 15.82 11.85 22.04 32.06

RoCE (%) 15.52 13.40 17.94 26.95Source: ICICIdirect Research


Bombay Rayon Fashions Ltd (BRFL) was promoted by Janardan Agarwal in 1986. It is an established

player in the fabric manufacturing industry and entered into garment manufacturing with a capacity of6,000 pieces per day in September 2005. At present, the company has four facilities at Silvassa, NaviMumbai, Sonale and Bangalore. These plants manufacture woven grey fabric, garments and home textiles.However, they don’t have any in-house processing facilities.

To achieve benefits of integration and having its own in-house processing facilities, BRFL is setting up anstate-of-the-art integrated textile plant at Doddaballapur near Bangalore. It is also planning to increase itsgarment manufacturing capacity to 1,00,000 pieces per day.

The company had come out with Initial Public Offering (IPO) in November 2005 to raise funds to financethe project. It issued 1,34,75,000 equity shares of Rs 10 each at a premium of Rs 60 per share. The publicissue had received overwhelming response and was oversubscribed 17.26 times.

BRFL exports 100% of its garment production to the US and EU and has an impressive client list includ-ing world’s top fashion labels like DKNY, Macy’s, Tom Tailor, etc.

COMPANY BACKGROUND

Exhibit 2: Buoyant demand, changing revenue mix

Source: ICICIdirect Research

! Quota Dismanting.! Curb on Chinese imports by US

and EU.! Higher sourcing from low cost

producers like India.

Vendor rationalization by world’smajor retail chains.

Improvement in average realizationsfor high value added products.

Buoyant demand scenario to drivevolumes for BRFL.

BRFL’s expanded capacity & lowturnaround time to make it preferredvender for world’s major retail chains.

BRFL’s major presence in fashion andhigh value added garments to improverealizations and enhance operatingmargins & profitability

Buoyant demand for apparel exports to boost BRFL’s earnings


TEXTILE INDUSTRY SCENARIO

After the textile quota regime was dismantled, the apparel market experienced a huge surge of exports fromChina. This was considered as disruptive and quotas were imposed on Chinese exports in various apparel catego-ries by the US and European Union (EU). Chinese exports will remain subject to volume restrictions in the US tillDecember 2008 and in the EU till December 2007. This move has benefited India and other South Asian countries.While China’s apparel exports declined by 11% in the first half of 2006, India has been able to register impressivegain of 18% during the same period.

Exhibit 3: US textile imports

Price realizations in the non-restricted low-value categories have been under pressure due to intense competition.Realizations for the restricted categories have improved. Buyers are willing to pay higher prices for apparel wherethe products require more value-addition and design variations. India commands a higher realizations comparedwith other countries. Buoyant demand for Indian apparels, improvement in average realizations and rationaliza-tion of core vendors by major importers is a positive for the domestic apparel industry.

Source: OTEXA, ICICIdirect Research

India China Market share (%) Market share (%)

YTD June 2006 % Change YTD June 2006 % Change YTD June 2006 YTD June 2005

US$ million US$ million India China India China

Apparel 1,811 17.8 6,613 -10.7 5.6 20.5 4.8 22.9

Cotton 1,516 23.2 2,914 -20.5 7.4 14.2 6 17.8

Non-Cotton 294 -4 3,698 -1 2.5 31.7 2.6 31.8

Fabric 84 11.7 428 11.3 3.1 15.5 2.6 13.3

Cotton 40 5.6 132 12.8 5.4 17.9 4.5 14

Non-Cotton 44 17.8 296 10.6 2.2 14.7 1.8 13

Yarn 32 136.8 31 29 3.7 3.7 1.5 2.7

Cotton 15 317.5 4 -11.6 7.4 2.1 1.8 2.4

Non-Cotton 17 73.7 27 38.7 2.7 4.1 1.5 2.8

Other Miscellaneous 789 12.3 3,524 20 11.2 50.1 11.3 47.2

Cotton 539 13.2 1,253 32.6 17.1 39.8 17.7 35.2

Non-Cotton 250 10.6 2,271 14 6.4 58.5 6.4 56.3

Total 2,716 16.6 10,596 -1.4 6.3 24.7 5.5 25.4

Total Cotton 2,109 20.8 4,303 -9.1 8.6 17.5 7.2 19.4

Total Non-Cotton 607 4.5 6,293 4.6 3.3 34.6 3.2 33.4

Exhibit 4: Apparel realizations in US

$/unit 2005 2004 % Change

China 2.6 3 -14.3

El Salvador 1.9 2 -7.3

Honduras 2.1 2.2 -5.7

Pakistan 2.2 2.2 -0.6

Bangladesh 2.1 2.1 0.4

Mexico 3.6 3.5 1.2

Indonesia 3.5 3.4 2.2

Vietnam 3.4 3.3 3.1

India 3.8 3.6 3.5

Cambodia 2.4 2.3 7.1Source: OTEXA, ICICIdirect Research


INVESTMENT RATIONALE

i) Capacity expansion to drive revenue growth

BRFL is expanding fabric capacity from 14.4 million metres per annum in FY06 to 21 million metres pa in FY07E.Garment manufacturing capacity is slated to go up from 40,000 pieces per day to 100,000 pieces per day. Inaddition, the company is setting up a fabric processing capacity of 35 million metres pa annum and a dyeing unitwith a capacity of 1.4 MMTPA. Post-expansion, BRFL with a garment capacity of 100,000 pieces per day wouldbecome the largest shirt producer in India.

Key demand drivers for capacity expansion

! After the quota regime was dismantled, there has been a surge in demand for Indian textiles and apparels.Apparel exports grew by 22% in FY05 to US$8.6 billion. Exports to US surged by 34% in FY05. BRFL willbe well-placed to cater to demand from international buyers. We expect revenues to grow at a CAGR of100.1% to Rs 796.90 crore over FY06-FY08E on the back of enhanced capacities and robust demand ininternational markets.

! Global retail brands like Walmart, GAP, JC Penny have been increasing their sourcing from India. Theseretail chains are rationalizing their vendor bases and limiting the number of vendors. India mainly caters tothe value-added products. Post-expansion, BRFL will have a scaleable capacity, which would enable itsecure more orders from the retail chains that are looking to source larger quantities from vendors whocan provide low turnaround time. We expect company’s exports to accelerate and increase at a CAGR of224% over FY06-FY08E to Rs 623 crore.

Exhibit 5: Capacity expansion schedule

Source: Company, ICICIdirect Research

Unit FY06 FY07E FY08E

Shirts

Existing capacity million pieces 1.8 11.1 18.9

New capacity million pieces 9.3 7.8 12

Total million pieces 11.1 18.9 30.9

Fabric (Weaving)

Existing capacity million metres 12 18 21

New capacity million metres 6 3 0

Total million metres 18 21 21

Fabric (Processing )

Existing capacity million metres - - 35

New capacity million metres - 35 0

Total million metres 35 35


i i ) Changing revenue mix to boost operating margins

In a strategic move, BRFL is shifting from being a fabric company, where margins are low at 10-12%, to anintegrated garment manufacturer. Garments command higher margins (almost double that of fabrics) and the shiftwill boost BRFL’s margins. We expect sales from the garment business to grow at a CAGR of 260.3% over FY06-FY08E. Contribution from garments will surge from 24% in FY06 to 78% in FY08E. We forecast overall operatingmargins register a substantial improvement from 16.8% in FY06 to 19.5% in FY08E.

Exhibit 6: Changing revenue composition


BRFL is able to command better margins due to the following reasons:

! The company’s core competence has been its capability to manufacture fabrics of different varieties.Thepresence of a fabric backbone gives it control over the production cycle. BRFL’s margins are better thanother garment manufacturers who outsource their fabric requirement.

! Further, the company operates in the fashion segment in the middle to high-end products, where realiza-tions are based on the value-additions done to the product. The company has a strong designing capabil-ity and has a library of over 1,000 designs in garments. This enables it offer innovative designs for which itcan charge a premium.

i i i) Low turnaround time, better realizations

Garment manufacturing is highly fashion oriented and requires prompt delivery of orders. Meeting deadlines iscritical for the business. BRFL’s control over fabric supply and in-house design studio and sampling facilities enableit to reduce the order cycle to 55-65 days against the industry standard of 90-120 days. With its new integratedfacility, BRFL will be able to further reduce turnaround time to about 30 days. This would give it an edge over othergarment manufacturers in tapping time-sensitive international retail chains. It will also be able to garner betterrealizations for orders of shorter duration.


Exhibit 7: Export to surge


Top-notch clientele to propel export growth

BRFL boasts an elite client list that comprises of world’s top 20 fashion labels like DKNY, Macy’s, Liz Claiborne, TomTailor, & Guess among others. Over the years, the company has developed strong relationships with its clients dueto the quality of its products and adherence to delivery schedules. Post-expansion, it will be able to leverage itsrelationship to ramp up the volumes from existing clients.

RISK AND CONCERNS

Customer concentrationBRFL is dependent on a few customers for export orders. Post-expansion, it will have to generate multi-fold ordersfor its products and enlarge its customer base. If it fails to generate orders commensurate to the expanded capac-ity, it may adversely impact the business. Also failure to attract new customers could lead to pricing pressure fromexisting customers.

Stiff competitives could strain marginsRemoval of quotas has created tremendous competition in textile industry. There have been structural changesand the industry dynamics are changing. The changes have led to stiff competition from domestic and globalplayers. BRFL is likely to face pressure from overseas buyers relating to delivery period, pricing, order size, productquality, etc. All these could put a strain on the profit margins.

Changing fashion trendsBRFL operates in the highly creative business of fashion. Any inability on its part to understand the prevailingglobal trends and forecast the changes well in advance could impact its growth and operational performance.


FINANCIALS

Top line to expand

We expect BRFL’s sales to surge at a CAGR of 100.1% over FY06-08E to Rs 796.90 crore on the back of volumedriven growth in exports.

Exhibit 8: Intensifying sales growth

Source:ICICIdirect Research

Operating profit to surge on rising margins

We expect BRFL’s operating margin to improve from 16.83% in FY06 to 19.55% in FY08E on the back of changingproduct mix. We expect BRFL’s operating profit to move up significantly and record a CAGR of 115.7%% overFY06-FY08E on the back of a 272 basis points increase in operating margin. Volume-driven growth in garmentexports and margin expansion would result in substantial growth in operating profit to Rs 155.79 crore in FY08Efrom Rs 33.48 crore in FY06.

Exhibit 9: Expansion in operating profit



Bottom line to zoom

We expect net profit to grow at a CAGR of 118.4% during FY06-FY08E driven by volume growth in sales on backof new expanded garment capacities going on stream and improvement in the operating profits.

Exhibit 10: Expanding net profit


Improving ratio

We expect RoCE to improve from 13.40% in FY06 to 26.95% in FY08E and RoNW to increase from 11.85% to32.06%. The improvement in the return ratios can be attributed to the benefits from the expansion and forwardintegration in high margin garments segment providing better return on the capital invested in the business.

Exhibit 11: Return ratio improving



VALUATIONS

BRFL’s transformation from a fabric manufacturer to an integrated garmenting company and massive ramp up incapacities will enable it achieve a volume growth in sales and record a CAGR of 100.1% in revenues to Rs 796.9crore over FY06-FY08E. The product shift to high-margin garments would improve the operating margins from16.83% in FY06 to 19.55% in FY08E. We expect net profit to grow at a CAGR of 118.4% over FY06-08E.

On a comparative valuation, BRFL enjoys better margins on the operating and net profit levels than GokaldasExports, a major player in the readymade garment exports.

Exhibit 12: Margin comparison

Source: Capitaline, ICICIdirect Research

Exhibit 13: Peer group financials

Source: Capitaline, ICICIdirect Research

Company Name Year End Net Sales Operatingprofit OPM (%) Net Profit NPM(%) Equity

Bombay Rayon Fashions 200603 198.98 33.49 16.83% 18.18 9.1% 48.98

Gokaldas Exports 200603 884.49 95.99 10.85% 60.88 6.9% 17.19

Raymond 200603 1324.74 188.95 14.26% 128.4 9.7% 61.38

Exhibit 14: Peer group valuation

Source: ICICIdirect Research

Gokaldas Exports# Raymond# BRFL

Price 622 38 17.7

FY08E EPS (Rs) 53 437 165

FY08E P/E (x) 11.7 11.5 9.3

Rs crore

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 19.4x FY07E EPS of Rs 8.53 and 9.3x FY08E EPS of Rs 17.71. On an EV/EBITDA basis, the stock is available at 12.9x FY07E earnings and 6.9x FY08E earnings. Gokaldas Exports, which isin similar line of business, trades at a P/E of 11.7x FY08E EPS of Rs 53. BRFL is trading at a discount of 21% toGokaldas Exports. Its capacity expansion and strategic shift to higher-margin garments would enable it to achieveaccelerated growth in revenues and profitability. We believe that the stock is attractively valued and expect it to bere-rated. We rate the stock an Outperformer and expect the stock to quote at a P/E of 12x FY08E EPS with a targetprice of Rs 212.


Increase in net block due tocapital expenditure on expansionproject

FINANCIAL SUMMARY

Sales CAGR of 100.1% forFY06 - FY08E

Profit and Loss Account

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Balance Sheet

Net profit CAGR of 118.4% forFY06 - FY08E

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(Rs Crore)

FY08E FY07E FY06 FY05 FY04

Net Sales 796.90 451.36 198.98 103.88 50.10

% Growth 76.56% 126.83% 91.55% 107.35%

Other Income 3.50 2.50 1.37 2.37 0.05

Raw Materials 456.23 257.27 112.28 63.78 27.72

Employee Expenses 39.85 24.82 10.18 2.01 0.74

Sell. & Admin. Expenses 145.04 86.66 43.04 26.74 16.96

Total Exp. 641.11 368.76 165.50 92.53 45.42

Operating Profit 155.79 82.60 33.48 11.35 4.68

Depreciation 19.20 13.32 2.95 1.88 0.59

Interest expense 13.37 12.02 6.45 2.64 1.19

PBT 123.23 57.26 24.08 6.83 2.90

Tax 40.00 18.00 7.27 1.94 1.24

Net Profit 86.73 41.76 18.18 7.26 1.71

% Growth 107.67% 129.72% 150.41% 324.56%

Equity 48.98 48.98 48.98 32.96 5.00

Dividend % 10% 10% 10% 0% 0%

(Rs Crore)


Share Capital 48.98 48.98 48.98 32.96 5.00

Pref. Share Capital 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Reserves & Surplus. 221.58 140.50 104.39 12.94 2.34

Secured Loans 275.00 255.00 84.11 26.65 3.88

Unsecured Loans 22.00 12.00 10.88 0.61 0.15

Deferrred Tax 10.48 3.98 1.48 0.32 0.83

Less : Miscellaneous

Exp Not W/off 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.36 0.03

Total liabilities 578.04 460.46 249.84 73.12 12.17

Net Block 255.90 258.65 120.23 29.44 5.25

Investments 0.21 0.21 10.01 0.12 0.12

Inventories 196.50 117.48 83.35 38.40 4.35

Sundry Debtors 98.25 61.83 34.62 20.81 16.00

Cash & Bank 25.33 6.71 11.71 0.87 0.50

Loans & Adv. 70.00 60.00 28.82 8.44 2.05

Current Assets 390.08 246.02 158.50 68.52 22.90

CL & Prov. 68.15 44.42 38.90 24.96 16.10

Net Current Assets 321.93 201.60 119.60 43.56 6.80

Total Assets 578.04 460.46 249.84 73.12 12.17


Improvement in operating marginon account of substantial shift inproduct mix from low marginfabrics business in favour of highvalue added readymade apparel

Substantial improvement inRONW & ROCE which haddeclined in FY06 on account ofequity dilution due to IPO andloans taken under TUFS

Cash Flow Statement

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Ratios

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(Rs Crore)


Opening Cash 6.71 11.71 0.87 0.50 4.60

Profit after Tax 86.73 41.76 18.18 7.26 1.71

Dividend Paid 5.65 5.65 5.58 0.00 0.00

Depreciation 19.20 13.32 2.95 1.88 0.59

Cash Profit 106.78 51.93 16.71 8.63 2.30

Changes In working Capital

Net Increase in CL 23.73 5.52 13.94 15.85 6.84

Net Increase in CA 125.44 92.52 58.82 45.25 -31.51

CF after changes in Working Cap. 5.07 -35.07 -28.17 -21.67 40.65

Cash Flow from Investing Activities

Purchase of FA 16.45 151.74 93.74 26.07 -119.34

Cash from Financing Activites

Inc./(Dec.) in Loan Funds 30.00 172.01 67.73 23.23 -100.40

Closing Cash 25.33 6.71 11.71 0.87 47.43


EPS 17.71 8.53 3.71 2.20 3.42

EPS Growth 108% 130% 69% -36%

Cash EPS 21.63 11.25 4.31 2.77 4.60

Book Value 55.24 38.69 31.31 13.93 14.68

Operating Margin (%) 19.55% 18.30% 16.83% 10.93% 9.34%

Net Profit Margin (%) 10.88% 9.25% 9.14% 6.99% 3.41%

RONW 32.06% 22.04% 11.85% 15.82% 23.30%

ROCE 26.95% 17.94% 13.40% 15.52% 38.46%

Debt/Equity 1.10 1.41 0.62 0.59 0.55

FA Turnover Ratio 3.61 2.06 2.90 4.12 9.54

Enterprise Value 1094.53 1083.15 906.14 849.25 826.39

EV/EBIDTA 7.03 13.11 27.07 74.82 176.58

Sales to Equity 16.27 9.22 4.06 3.15 10.02

Market Cap to Sales 1.03 1.82 4.14 7.92 16.42

Price to Book Value 3.04 4.34 5.37 12.06 11.44


RATING RATIONALE

ICICIdirect endeavours to provide objective opinions and ecommendations. ICICIdirect assigns ratings to its stocksaccording to their notional target price vs current market price and then categorises them as Outperformer,Performer, Hold, and Underperformer. The performance horizon is 2 years unless specified and the notional targetprice is defined as the analysts’ valuation for a stock.

Outperformer: 20% or more;Performer: Between 10% and20% Hold: +10% return;Underperformer: -10% or more.

Research Team

DisclaimerThe report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way,transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consentof ICICI Web Trade Limited.The author of the report does not hold any investment in any of the companies mentioned in this report. ICICI Web Trade Limited (ICICI Web Trade)may be holding a small number of shares/postion in the above referred companies as on date of release of this report.This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has beenmade nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and may not be usedor considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Nothing in thisreport constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to yourspecific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make theirown investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken insubstitution for the exercise of independent judgement by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. ICICIWeb Trade and affiliates accept no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is notnecessarily a guide to future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. ICICI Web Trade may have issuedother reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report. This report is not directed orintended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction,where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject ICICI Web Trade and affiliatesto any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in alljurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of andto observe such restriction.

Name E-mail

Harendra Kumar Head - Research and Content [email protected]

Pankaj Pandey [email protected] Mehta [email protected] Kumar [email protected] Chhoda [email protected] Kedia [email protected] Khedkar [email protected] Batra [email protected] Jain [email protected] Sankhe [email protected] Padmanabhan [email protected] Manyal [email protected] Khemka [email protected] Crasto Technical Analyst [email protected] Shah Technical Analyst [email protected] Mallya Editor [email protected] Talekar Production [email protected] Rai Production [email protected]

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Company Report - content.icicidirect.comcontent.icicidirect.com/mailimages/Bombay.pdf · 2 For private circulation only Bombay Rayon Fashions Ltd (BRFL) was promoted by Janardan Agarwal