Communication of Daily and seasonal weather Forecasts in Greece_ Panos Giannopoulos

8/13/2019 Communication of Daily and seasonal weather Forecasts in Greece_ Panos Giannopoulos

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Panos Giannopoulos

Hellenic National Met. Service

19thAnnual Meeting of the Working Group on Co-operation Between European Forecasters (WGCEF)


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a brief overview of how HNMS forecasts are

distributed

some related issues that have been raised the lastyears

..thoughts for discussion..


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)

a general forecast for today-tomorrow(every six hours)-textA general forecast for 3 to 7 days (once

daily) -text

Weather warnings


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Weather andSea Bulletinsand Warningsfor the EasternMediterranean

Sea and theBlack Sea.


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)

Aeronautical forecasts (TAF, SIGmet,SigWC, Gamet) etc) HNMS is certified as an Air

Navigation Service Provider under the framework of the SingleEuropean Sky Regulations.

Special forecasts for customers(public+private sector)


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TV Radio

newspapers internet


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1975

the first weather bulletinin Greek TV

from a meteorologist of

Greek NMS


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Until 1989

only two public channelswith 3 meteorologists each

(from NMS) as presenters


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1989 Private Television launching(5 channels cover the entire country)

For first time weather was presented fromnon meteorologists

The meteorologists in the backgroundpreparing the materialagain from the

HNMS (retired or not)


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now1 meteorologist or 1 meteo + 1presenter

Again most meteorologists are of HNMSorigin

(2 from NMS , 2 retired, 1 no relation)

Basically their forecasts are HNMS

forecasts


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Now, only two stations havea live weather bulletin every day

from meteorologists.

Usually, in most stations, there is a less than 30-

sec weather bulletin every hour (usually, but notalways, from HNMS)


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Decline of circulationFrom 2007 to 2012

Sunday newspapers daily

Loss 40% loss 62%

circulation500.000 90000


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Before the financial crisis,

all Sunday newspapers had

a meteorologist (from

HNMS) writing a full-pageweather forecast.

Now more than 70% haveretained a signed weather

forecast


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Until 2008 the top 5 newspapers in circulationhave a weather forecast signed by ameteorologist from HNMS

Now there is no signed weather forecast in anydaily newspaper.

Usually, only a copy and paste forecast fromHNMS without mentioning the source

or just a weather graphic with no source of data


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In Europe70% oftheweatherforecastsaresigned


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At the end of 1990 the first internet weatherforecasts appeared

(numerical weather forecasts),

produced by:the University of Athens,

the Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, later.


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In 2002 the first greek weatherportal was introduced, createdby some researchers of theNational Observatory of Athens

Clearly oriented towards thegeneral public.


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a latest public survey for a bigSunday newspaper

measured government-institutions confidence index

GICI

HNMS was 1st (among 48)

Source: Public Issue company for Kathimerini


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Some years ago it wasnot questioned what wasthe origin of the weatherforecast

Now although NMS has

a dominant role, theorigin of the forecast insome cases is unclear


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Seasonal forecasts is something new

for the science

But also for the media


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Some seasonal forecasts from the past

Theofrastus

De signis 300B.C

If a great deal of rain falls in winter, thespring is usually dry; if the winter has beendry, the spring is usually wet.

If periodic winds have been blowing for along time, and a windy autumn follows, thewinter is windless


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From last Sundays

newspaper

a Ph.d meteorologist

(not from HNMS) gave

a seasonal forecast for2013-2014 winter

Good news: winter will be gentle


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Some commentsfrom a German

meteorologist

Reproduced in many

Greek sites_including yahoo news

Appeared from

21/sep and for many

days

the coldest winter of the last 100 years is coming


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Impact on

-decisions of tourists?

A reporter working for a Foreign Press Agency

asked HNMS to comment on these articles


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Since 2008 HNMS participates

o SEECOF

(South Eastern Europe

climate outlook forum)In which- twice a year- a

consensus outlook for the

next season is produced

(HNMS dont publish any

seasonal forecast yet)


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How we can achieve that NMS forecasts are always

referenced appropriatelyIs it appropriate to communicate seasonal forecasts

to general public ?

And which is the best way to communicate their

uncertainty?


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Documents

Communication of Daily and seasonal weather Forecasts in Greece_ Panos Giannopoulos