Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Communicating Climate and Weather Information
Chris Elfring, DirectorBoard on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
The National Academies500 Fifth Street NW
Washington DC 20001
The National Academies
Advisors to the nation on science, engineering, and medicine.We generate about one report a day on a range of issues.
Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
seeks to advance understanding of the atmospheric sciences, meteorology, and climate;
foster application of this knowledge to benefit the public; and
advise US research programs so they are responsive to scientific opportunities and the needs of the nation.
Some Insights from NRC 2003
Invest time in communications from the start
Understand the communications process
Use multiple modes Repeat important messages Education of user community is a
goal of good communication Communication is part of a
broader process of decision making; produce useful products that support process
Some Insights from NRC 2003 Be aware: forecasters/users are
different cultures and use words differently
Know the audience Forecasts not fully supported by
science reduce future credibility Clear, graphic warnings increase
the chances for intelligent responses
Communicate uncertainty and why it is uncertain
Both qualitative and quantitative descriptions are useful
Some Insights from NRC 2003
Effectively communicating uncertainty and context shifts responsibility of decision making to user
Success or failure of forecasts and media portrayal determine credibility of future forecast Correct problems asap Avoid over-selling Provide follow-on information about
forecast quality to help credibility of future communications
Some Insights from NRC 2003
Diverse and multiple sources of info/forecasts have value but also can create confusion
Limit confusion – be clear when providing experimental products
A source of compiled info with diverse products is useful
Conflicting forecasts and info in life threatening situations can result in decision errors; highlight “official” forecasts
Some Insights from NRC 2006
Guidance on how to identify and characterize needs for uncertainty information among various users
Identify limits of current methods and recommend improvements
Identify sources of misunderstanding Recommendations for NWS but
potentially broader (other NOAA, other gov’t, commercial, media, weather risk management, etc.)
Some Insights from NRC 2006
Users (weather, seasonal climate, water) of forecasts “conditioned” to receive incomplete info about likelihood of events
“Determinism” legacy remains strong Expression of uncertainty should be
fundamental element of forecasts Partnerships between gov’t and
others in Weather Enterprise can help better understand user needs, generate rich info products, and improve communication of uncertainty
Some Insights from NRC 2006
Entire Weather Enterprise has responsibility for providing products that communicate effectively
Collaborate with users and partners from the beginning and engage social and behavioral science expertise
Cooperate on educational efforts Develop capability to produce
objective uncertainty info at scales Make raw and post-processed
probabilistic products accessible
Some Insights from NRC 2006
Improve verification efforts Develop new methods for estimation,
communication, and use of forecast uncertainty info (e.g., testbeds)
Establish an independent advisory committee (Fair Weather, 2006)
Dedicate executive attention to coordinating the estimation and communication of uncertainty info within NWS and with Enterprise partners
Issues with Potential for NRC Input
Many of the issues discussed today, and more, could be addressed via the National Academy of Sciences :
Climate services Wildland fire weather forecasting Climate and extreme events Climate impacts, implications, and adaptations Climate predictability Climate dynamics and modeling Climate and national security Observing networks Ozone depletion, recovery, and continuing challenges Aerosols (e.g., black carbon)
Why an Academy Study?
Unique Strengths: Stature of Academies’ name, memberships and
reputation
Ability to get the very best to serve
“Pro bono” nature of committee service and careful attention to conflict of interest issues
Special relationship to the government
Quality control procedures
Independence, scientific objectivity, balance
Consensus findings and recommendations
New project developed and approved
Congressional mandate
Internally initiated
Agency request
Committee of volunteers developed and approved
Committee meetings to gather information,
deliberate, andprepare a report
NRC ReportIndependent, external review
NAS members NAE membersIOM membersother experts
NRC Study Process
BASC-CRC
Dissemination
How to Request an Academy Study
Formal Written into congressional legislation Letter from agency management
Informal Conversations with BASC director or staff Conversations with BASC members (individually or at
board meetings)
Project development is a joint process so what is done meets requestor’s needs and Academy standards
Contact Information
Chris ElfringBoard on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
The National Academies
500 Fifth Street NW (K-636)
Washington DC 20001
www.nationalacademies.org/basc
202 334 3426 (direct)
202 334 3512 (main)
202 334 3825 (fax)
