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COMMODITY TRENDS
CONTENTSEditorial ............................................................. 1Energy ............................................................... 2
Base Metals ....................................................... 4Precious Metals ................................................. 6
Other Commodities ........................................... 7Tables ................................................................ 8
François Dupuis, Vice-President and Chief Economist • Mathieu D’Anjou, Deputy Chief Economist Carine Bergevin-Chammah, Economist • Joëlle Noreau, Senior Economist
Desjardins, Economic Studies: 514-281-2336 or 1 866-866-7000, ext. 5552336 • [email protected] • desjardins.com/economics
NOTE TO READERS: The letters k, M and B are used in texts and tables to refer to thousands, millions and billions respectively.IMPORTANT: This document is based on public information and may under no circumstances be used or construed as a commitment by Desjardins Group. While the information provided has been determined on the basis of data obtained from sources that are deemed to be reliable, Desjardins Group in no way warrants that the information is accurate or complete. The document is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale. Desjardins Group takes no responsibility for the consequences of any decision whatsoever made on the basis of the data contained herein and does not hereby undertake to provide any advice, notably in the area of investment services. The data on prices or margins are provided for information purposes and may be modified at any time, based on such factors as market conditions. The past performances and projections expressed herein are no guarantee of future performance. The opinions and forecasts contained herein are, unless otherwise indicated, those of the document’s authors and do not represent the opinions of any other person or the official position of Desjardins Group. Copyright © 2019, Desjardins Group. All rights reserved.
Commodity prices have recovered overall since the beginning of the year (graph 1). The signs pointing to a possible trade agreement between the United States and China eased uncertainty, as improved relations between these two major economic powers could mitigate China’s economic difficulties and improve the economic outlook globally, especially in the short term. This would be of particular benefit to the industrial metals and energy sectors. However, there are still a lot of unknowns surrounding the faith of the tariffs introduced in 2018. The slowdown in global trade at the end of the year and some disappointing economic data have given rise once again to concerns regarding the health of the global economy. Moreover, several political and economic institutions have revised their forecasts for economic growth downward in 2019 (graph 2). Nevertheless, the higher caution demonstrated by the central banks would help gold end the year higher than had been anticipated.
Despite the economic climate in 2019, which has deteriorated compared to last year’s expectations, the economic growth of the major economies should be positive overall. Taking into account the drop in the price of industrial metals and energy at the end of 2018, it appears that conditions are ripe for prices to rise in 2019. However, downside risks will be closely monitored.
François Dupuis, Vice-President and Chief Economist
Carine Bergevin-Chammah, Economist
Commodities Soar as Confidence Returns
ECONOMIC STUDIES | MARCH 19, 2019
GRAPH 1Commodities are regaining some of the ground lost
Sources: Datastream and Desjardins, Economic Studies
Bloomberg Commodity Index and its components
Jan. 2018 = 100
7580859095
100105110115120125
JAN. APR. JUL. OCT. JAN.
Index Energy Industrial metals Precious metals Cereals
2018 2019
GRAPH 2Economic growth forecasts were revised downward
EFO: Economic & Financial OutlookSources: Datastream and Desjardins, Economic Studies
Economic growth in 2019 – Desjardins forecasts
Annual variation in %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Canada U.S. Euro zone U.K. Japan China World
EFO published in November 2018EFO published in February 2019
#1 BEST OVERALLFORECASTER - CANADA
ECONOMIC STUDIES
2MARCH 2019 | COMMODITY TRENDS
OIL
Oil prices have posted significant gains since the beginning of the year. The price of a WTI barrel is currently sitting at roughly US$60 and a barrel of WCS (Western Canadian Select) was able to close the gap, reaching more than US$45 (graph 3). The production restrictions in Alberta helped Canadian inventories fall and underpinned the rise in WCS prices. A recent issue of Economic Viewpoint explained that the strong demand for heavy oil in the U.S. Gulf Coast is also supporting the lower price spread despite the greater reliance on rail—a costlier method—to ship Canadian oil to the region (graph 4). The transportation issues of Western Canadian oil remain a reality, especially given the delays in building Enbridge’s Line 3 pipeline, and risk impeding the Canadian energy sector in the years to come.
Oil output in the United States is still increasing, and analysts are expecting growth to remain strong in the medium term. However, the abundant supply out of the United States is partially offset by OPEC’s cuts as it attempts to manage the market to ensure prices remain high, and by the geopolitical problems in Venezuela and Iran. It is unlikely that Chinese and Russian investments in Venezuela’s oil sector will be able to revive the country’s oil production, since the economic and political situation seems far from settled. Nicolás Maduro’s government still refuses to cede control despite the strong opposition and U.S. sanctions are likely to remain in place without a regime change. In addition, since the sanctions against Iran were announced at the end of March 2018, Iranian oil exports have plunged roughly 1.3 million barrels a day (graph 5 on page 3). The exemptions granted to, among others, China and India—the two largest customers of Iranian oil—expire in May 2019, and OPEC’s ability to export may be restricted even further if the exemptions are not renewed.
EnergyOil Prices Continue to Climb
FORECASTSLess uncertainty, especially concerning trade relations, and the crude oil output cuts agreed to by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), have helped oil prices to rise. The situation in Venezuela, which seems to be far from over, and the exemptions to the Iranian sanctions, which may not be renewed, are also restricting OPEC’s oil supply. Therefore, prices can be expected to continue to rise moderately in spite of the strong output from the United States. The average price of a WTI (West Texas Intermediate) barrel is expected to be roughly US$59 in 2019 and US$60 in 2020. The major rise in the price of natural gas in the United States at the end of 2018 appears to have been short-lived, as it fell back to below US$3.00/MMBTU (Million British Thermal Units). We anticipate that it will continue to hover around this level.
GRAPH 3The gap between WTI and WCS prices decreased
WTI: West Texas Intermediate; WCS: Western Canadian SelectSources: Datastream, Bloomberg and Desjardins, Economic Studies
Oil prices
US$/barrel
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
WTI Brent WCS
GRAPH 4Rail shipments of Canadian oil increased, and most of the oil is headed to the U.S. Gulf Coast
PADD: Petroleum Administration for Defense DistrictsSources: Energy Information Administration and Desjardins, Economic Studies
Canadian exports of crude oil by rail
Thousands of barrels/day
0
75
150
225
300
375
JAN. APR. JUL. OCT. JAN. APR. JUL. OCT.
PADD 1 PADD 2 PADD 3 PADD 4 PADD 5
2017 2018
3MARCH 2019 | COMMODITY TRENDS
ECONOMIC STUDIES
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), demand should continue to rise in 2019 (graph 6). The strong growth in oil output in the United States may continue to force OPEC’s members to stick with their agreement to restrict production. This should allow the oil market to remain fairly stable in 2019. Yet the downside risks for the global economy could weaken demand and cause surpluses to reappear in the oil market.
Generally, we are still forecasting that the price of a WTI barrel in 2019 will average US$59, as prices are expected to rise gradually. Our assumptions include OPEC and Russia complying with the output cuts deal, Iran and Venezuela’s problems persisting in 2019 and demand growing at a relatively stable rate. Still, the risk scale is tipping to the downside.
GASOLINE
The increase in oil prices has started to have an impact on the price of gasoline in the United States, as it currently sits at roughly US$2.50 a gallon (graph 7). Gasoline inventories have also declined to reach a more normal level for this time of the year. The price should keep rising, given the anticipated change in crude oil prices and the increase in demand as summer approaches.
NATURAL GAS
Inventories of natural gas remain well below their 5-year average, yet this has not stopped the price from falling. Recently, it was hovering around US$2.80/MMBTU (graph 8). The high levels of U.S. natural gas production seem to reassure the market that the United States has the capacity to respond to demand. Therefore, temperature fluctuations seem to have a greater impact on price fluctuations than inventory levels. As a result, we expect natural gas prices to generally fluctuate around the current price, with greater volatility in winter, to reach an annual average of US$2.90/MMBTU in 2019.
GRAPH 8The price of natural gas is back below US$3
MMBTU: Million British Thermal UnitsSources: Datastream and Desjardins, Economic Studies
Natural gas in the United States
In billions of cubic feet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-1,000-750-500-250
0250500750
1,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
5-year average spread in inventories (left) Prices (right)
US$/MMBTU
GRAPH 7U.S. gas prices are rising in tandem with oil prices
* Average WTI (West Texas Intermediate) and Brent prices.Sources: Datastream and Desjardins, Economic Studies
US$/barrel
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.25
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Crude oil prices* (left)Gas prices in the United States (right)
US$/gallon
GRAPH 6The demand for oil should remain relatively high in 2019and 2020
IEA: International Energy Agency; e: IEA estimateSources: IEA and Desjardins, Economic Studies
Growth of oil demand
Millions of barrels/day
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
2016 2017 2018e 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
IEA forecasts
GRAPH 5Iranian oil exports have fallen significantly since the sanctions were announced
Sources: Bloomberg and Desjardins, Economic Studies
Iranian crude oil exports
Millions of barrels/day
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
JAN. APR. JUL. OCT. JAN. APR. JUL. OCT. JAN.
Mill
iers Other
IndiaChina
2017 2018 2019
ECONOMIC STUDIES
4MARCH 2019 | COMMODITY TRENDS
The return of a certain degree of optimism, primarily due to an easing of the trade tensions between the United States and China, and signs that an agreement could soon be reached between the two supported industrial metal prices. The LME index is currently sitting at around 3,000 compared with 2,800 in January 2019 (graph 9). Nevertheless, the fact that several institutions have revised their growth forecasts down and that the major central banks have adopted a more cautious tone has caused the concerns about the health of the global economy to resurface. Attention is largely focused on China, which recently softened its 6.5% economic growth target for 2019 to a range between 6.0% and 6.5%. A slowing of the Chinese economy could lower industrial metal prices, as the country represents approximately half of the global demand for refined metals (graph 10). In addition, the decline in world trade in November and December 2018 is not reassuring in terms of prospects for industrial metals demand. It remains to be seen if the data is the result of temporary factors or a clear trend. Still, inadequate investment in mining projects in recent years and production deficits imply that LME inventories should remain low, which would support prices.
ALUMINUM
The price of aluminum has been oscillating between US$1,800 and US$1,900 per metric tonne since the beginning of 2019 (graph 11). Different factors appear to be offsetting one other, as the upturn in U.S. trade relations is putting upward pressure on the international price for aluminum, whereas the withdrawal of sanctions against Russia, China’s economic difficulties and the weaker global growth outlook have put the brakes on the price’s rise. With the ratification of the new free-trade agreement between Canada, the United States and Mexico, and the U.S.–Chinese negotiations currently underway, these countries may attempt to have the U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum removed. If they succeed, the international price of aluminum could potentially rise. There is still a huge amount of uncertainty on this topic, however. A price that remains this low for too long would be bad news for aluminum smelters, as Alcoa estimates that, at a price of US$1,870 a tonne, 30 to 40% of the smelters around the world are losing money. Therefore, a slight increase in the price is expected.
Base MetalsPrices Are Starting to Catch Up
FORECASTSPrices of the main base metals that we follow have generally risen since January 2019. The odds of the United States and China reaching an agreement are looking better and better, which is fuelling the rise in prices. Yet fears concerning an imminent economic slowdown still weigh heavily on the markets. Despite the economic risks, some metals remain in short supply due to the lack of investment in mining, which should keep prices high in the short and medium terms. Therefore, we expect the LME (London Metal Exchange) index to climb back to 3,200 at the end of 2019, for an annual average of around 3,000.
GRAPH 10The health of the Chinese economy could be a deciding factor for industrial metals
Sources: World Bank and Desjardins, Economic Studies
Share of global refined metals consumption in 2017
In %
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
Aluminum Copper Nickel Zinc
China Advanced economies
GRAPH 9Industrial metal prices perk up
LME: London Metal Exchange Sources: Datastream and Desjardins, Economic Studies
Index
5001,5002,5003,5004,5005,5006,5007,5008,500
500
1,250
2,000
2,750
3,500
4,250
5,000
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
LME index (left) Inventories of the six main metals (right)
In thousands of tonnes
5MARCH 2019 | COMMODITY TRENDS
ECONOMIC STUDIES
regulations. In 2018, the zinc market experienced a shortfall for the third year in a row. The low inventories could support the price, but it is highly unlikely that we will see another spectacular rise as we did in 2016 and 2017.
COPPER
The price of copper regained some strength with, among other things, the easing in the tensions between the United States and China and the renewed optimism on the stock markets. It was recently trading around US$6,500 per metric tonne (graph 12), an 8% increase since the beginning of 2019. Inventories have continued to shrink, as the copper market is suffering a production shortfall for the second year in a row, and forecasts call for the situation to continue for several years to come. This should maintain upward pressure on the price of copper. A U.S.–China trade agreement would reduce the challenges facing the Chinese economy, which could also benefit copper. Yet the downside risks for the global economy are still very real and could continue to limit any price increases.
NICKEL
The price of nickel has been recording solid gains of over 20% since January 2019, reaching around US$13,000 per metric tonne (graph 13). Inventories continue to fall and are currently sitting at their lowest point since July 2013. Demand is expected to remain strong, especially on the part of China’s stainless steel mills. However, a sharper slowdown of the global economy could adversely impact this outlook. Nonetheless, we expect the price of nickel to hang on to the gains it made and maybe even go up a little.
ZINC
The price of zinc is currently around US$2,800 per metric tonne after rising 12% since January 2019 (graph 14). Still, it is far from its recent high in February 2018. LME inventory counts fell once again, with an annual decrease of approximately 70% despite the disappointing demand in 2018. This suggests that there are problems with supply, especially in China where the production of refined zinc has slowed as a result of the new environmental
GRAPH 14Zinc prices and inventories
Sources: Datastream and Desjardins, Economic Studies
US$/tonne
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,3001,6001,9002,2002,5002,8003,1003,4003,700
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Prices (left) Inventories (right)
In thousands of tonnes
GRAPH 13Nickel prices and inventories
Sources: Datastream and Desjardins, Economic Studies
US$/tonne
100150200250300350400450500
7,000
10,000
13,000
16,000
19,000
22,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Prices (left) Inventories (right)
In thousands of tonnes
GRAPH 12Copper prices and inventories
Sources: Datastream and Desjardins, Economic Studies
US$/tonne
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
4,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5007,0007,5008,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Prices (left) Inventories (right)
In thousands of tonnes
GRAPH 11Aluminum prices and inventories
Sources: Datastream and Desjardins, Economic Studies
US$/tonne
8001,4002,0002,6003,2003,8004,4005,0005,600
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
2,600
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Prices (left) Inventories (right)
In thousands of tonnes
ECONOMIC STUDIES
6MARCH 2019 | COMMODITY TRENDS
GOLD & SILVER
Fading expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise its key rates have helped the price of gold to regain the ground it has lost since the end of 2018, which was close to US$1,300 per ounce (graph 15). Lesser worries about trade relations between the United States and China also boosted gold, while the value of the U.S. dollar fell. Still, the greenback’s rebound, caused by the concerns surrounding the global economy, brought on a decline in the price of gold. Silver did not see as large gains as
gold at the start of the year, but it did feel the effects of the recent decline. At approximately US$15 per ounce, silver has fallen to almost the same level it had reached at the end of 2018 (graph 16). The gradual increase in bond yields in the United States should have a slight negative impact on the price of gold during the coming quarters. We expect an average price of US$1,280 per ounce in 2019.
PLATINUM & PALLADIUM
The price of palladium continues to smash records, recently reaching a high of US$1,590 per ounce (graph 17). The strong demand on the part of the automotive industry and a significant shortfall on the palladium market are putting serious pressure on its price. Platinum’s experience is quite different. While the supply of platinum more than meets demand, the price is struggling to rise above its low of US$800 per ounce. Given the properties that platinum and palladium share in the automotive industry, as explained in an issue of Economic News, there are doubts as to whether the market can sustain such a significant price spread between these two metals.
Precious MetalsGold Benefits from Central Bank’s Caution
FORECASTSThe pause in monetary policy tightening by the major central banks has helped gold. Despite the fact that the return to a certain degree of uncertainty caused the U.S. dollar to rise, the price of gold has posted some gains since the end of 2018. The price of the yellow metal should, however, weaken again, but could end the year on a slightly higher note than initially anticipated reaching roughly US$1,280 per ounce, on average, in 2019.
GRAPH 17Platinum and palladium prices
Sources: Datastream and Desjardins, Economic Studies
US$/ounce
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Platinum (left) Palladium (right)
US$/ounce
GRAPH 16Gold and silver prices
Sources: Datastream and Desjardins, Economic Studies
US$/ounce
1314151617181920212223
1,000
1,075
1,150
1,225
1,300
1,375
1,450
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Gold (left) Silver (right)
US$/ounce
GRAPH 15 The slowdown in the pace of monetary tightening by theFederal Reserve has helped gold
Sources: Bloomberg and Desjardins, Economic Studies
Expectations in the United States – December 2019
In %
1,175
1,200
1,225
1,250
1,275
1,300
1,325
1,350
0
20
40
60
80
100
JUN. JUL. AUG. SEP. OCT. NOV. DEC. JAN. FEB. MAR.
Likelihood of key rates higher than 2.25%–2.50% (left) Gold prices (right)
US$/ounce
2018 2019
7MARCH 2019 | COMMODITY TRENDS
ECONOMIC STUDIES
FOREST PRODUCTS
The rise in the price of lumber since November 2018 has peaked in recent weeks. The price is currently holding at roughly US$360/tbf (thousand board feet) (graph 18). After a dizzying drop between July and October, prices have once again started to climb a little without reaching the levels that prevailed at this same time last year. Production closures at the beginning of the year underpinned this rise. It would be surprising to see lumber prices follow the same trajectory they did in 2018 and smash records in the coming months. The stars are not aligned. In the United States, the number of housing starts, which slowed a little in the second half of the year, should start to climb again in 2019. However, sales of existing homes slowed in 2018, which does not augur well for renovation spending and the demand for materials. In Canada, the expected fall in residential housing starts compared with 2018 will also reduce the demand for construction lumber. Still, prices are expected to rise this spring due to sustained demand and limited supply in North America. The increases will not be comparable to those of 2018, but market conditions suggest a rise in the coming months that will not be due solely to seasonal patterns.
AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES
The recent trend in cereal and oilseed prices is downward (graph 19). Wheat posted the largest loss, especially in February. Tough competition worldwide and the upward revision to global and U.S. inventories have depressed prices (graph 20). Corn and soybeans have also fallen in a harsh context. Corn inventories are declining around the world but rising in the United States. U.S. exports are down somewhat, and the demand for ethanol is waning. The abundance of soybean inventories around the world has put the brakes on any price increase for the time being. Moreover, the trade negotiations between China and the United States have cast a shadow over the outlook for corn and soybeans, in particular. While the tone of the discussions has softened, the most important disputes remain unresolved. As long as no official agreement is announced, the tension will weigh heavily on prices. However, considering the current low prices, some hikes are possible, but not in the short term. Seeding plans in the United States released at the end of March could exacerbate the current volatility.
Other CommoditiesModest Price Hikes Possible
GRAPH 20Wheat inventories in the United States are expected to end 2019 at a historical high
f: U.S. Department of Agriculture projectionsSources: U.S. Department of Agriculture and Desjardins, Economic Studies
In millions of bushel
10
20
30
40
50
60
200
350
500
650
800
950
1,100
1,250
2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019f
Year-end inventories (left)Stocks-to-use ratio (right)
In %
GRAPH 18Forest product prices
tbf: thousand board feetSources: Datastream and Desjardins, Economic Studies
US$/tbf
850
925
1,000
1,075
1,150
1,225
1,300
1,375
1,450
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Lumber (left) Pulp (right)
US$/tonne
GRAPH 19Cereal prices
Sources: Datastream and Desjardins, Economic Studies
US$/bushel US$/bushel
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Wheat (left) Corn (left) Soy (right)
ECONOMIC STUDIES
8MARCH 2019 | COMMODITY TRENDS
SPOT PRICE
March 18 -1 month -3 months -6 months -1 year Higher Average Lower
IndexReuter-CRB (CCI) 408.7 1.7 2.4 2.4 -4.2 441.0 412.7 390.8Reuters/Jefferies CRB 184.9 1.9 6.0 -3.0 -4.9 206.4 190.6 168.4Bloomberg Commodity Index 81.9 1.1 2.8 -1.0 -6.3 91.6 84.5 76.7Bank of Canada 429.9 2.7 4.2 -4.8 -2.9 508.1 445.4 374.8
EnergyBrent oil (US$/barrel) 67.4 1.3 18.0 -14.6 2.1 85.8 70.8 53.1WTI oil (US$/barrel) 59.1 6.3 28.1 -15.4 -5.1 77.4 63.1 44.5Gasoline (US$/gallon) 2.55 10.0 7.6 -10.3 -0.4 2.96 2.67 2.24Natural gas (US$/MMBTU) 2.85 8.6 -25.7 -2.8 6.0 4.84 3.07 2.55
Base metalsLMEX 3,027 2.8 7.0 4.2 -7.6 3,500 3,048 2,730Aluminium (US$/tonne) 1,900 4.1 -1.1 -5.0 -8.0 2,541 2,041 1,799Copper (US$/tonne) 6,458 2.0 8.6 6.5 -5.9 7,331 6,356 5,714Nickel (US$/tonne) 12,925 4.5 20.2 5.0 -4.7 15,688 12,900 10,605Zinc (US$/tonne) 2,817 6.1 9.2 21.1 -13.7 3,301 2,761 2,284
Precious metalsGold (US$/ounce) 1,305 -1.6 4.7 8.8 -0.7 1,359 1,264 1,179Silver (US$/ounce) 15.4 -2.4 4.9 8.2 -6.6 17.2 15.5 14.0Platinum (US$/ounce) 831 2.8 5.9 2.1 -12.5 956 845 772Palladium (US$/ounce) 1,567 7.6 23.8 56.9 58.8 1,567 1,108 849
Other commoditiesLumber (US$/tbf) 362 -4.0 8.1 -17.9 -28.5 582 434 327Pulp (US$/tonne) 1,380 -1.8 -4.5 0.0 11.3 1,445 1,361 1,240Wheat (US$/bushel) 4.90 -8.2 -12.2 4.3 4.7 6.77 5.13 4.46Corn (US$/bushel) 3.42 -2.6 -3.1 17.5 -2.8 3.78 3.40 2.91Soybean (US$/bushel) 8.44 -1.1 -1.9 13.3 -15.5 10.21 8.66 7.45
CRB: Commodity Research Bureau; CCI: Continuous Commodity Index; WTI: West Texas Intermediate; MMBTU: Million British Thermal Units;LMEX: London Metal Exchange Index; tbf: thousand of board feetNOTE: Currency table base on previous day closure.
TABLE 1Commodities
VARIATION (%) LAST 52 WEEKS
2017 2018 2019f 2020f
Target: 59 Target: 60(range: 45 to 70) (range: 40 to 75)
Target: 2.90 Target: 3.10(range: 2.80 to 3.50) (range: 2.70 to 4.30)
Target: 1,280 Target: 1,240(range: 1,150 to 1,350) (range: 1,125 to 1,325)
Target: 3,050 Target: 3,290(range: 2,700 to 3,300) (range: 2,600 to 3,400)
TABLE 2Commodities prices: History and forecasts
ANNUAL AVERAGE
WTI oil (US$/barrel) 51 65
LMEX index—base metals 2,969 3,141
f: forecasts; WTI : West Texas Intermediate; MMBTU : Million British Thermal Units; LMEX : London Metal Exchange IndexSources: Datastream and Desjardins, Economic Studies
Natural gas Henry Hub(US$/MMBTU)
3.02 3.07
Gold (US$/ounce) 1,259 1,269
