Commodities Monthly Soybeans in box seat for US acreage battle · -10 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Thousand Contracts Net Long Gross Long Gross

March 2013 1

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Luke Chandler Global Head +44 20 7664 9676

[email protected]

Keith Flury

Senior Commodity Analyst +44 20 7664 9676

[email protected]

Erin FitzPatrick

Senior Commodity Analyst +44 20 7664 9540

[email protected]

Nick Higgins

Commodity Analyst +44 20 7664 9543

[email protected]

Soybeans appear to have gained ground on corn and cotton this year in the annual battle for acreage in the US. While the USDA is forecasting a record US corn crop in 2013, insured new crop prices suggest corn may lose some acreage to soybeans and spring wheat.

GRAINS & OILSEEDS SOFTS

WHEAT SUGAR Nearby CBOT Wheat price forecasts are reduced due to lower wheat demand Speculator net short positions have likely peaked Rally in corn prices expected to support wheat

prices in Q2 Expanded US spring wheat planted area likely to

offset some of the forecast decline in winter wheat production

#11 price forecast maintained as we anticipate higher prices as the Brazilian crush begins Further selling by Thai and Brazilian producers to

continue to cap rallies Short liquidation by speculators and continued

end user buying to support prices

CORN COFFEE CBOT Corn prices are expected to rally in Q2 2013 on low US corn stocks March 28 Grain Stocks report expected to be

bullish for CBOT Corn prices Demand for old crop US corn increasing US Corn production in 2013/14 forecast to be

significantly below initial USDA estimates

Price forecasts moved higher as bullish developments encourage speculator and industry buying Arabica price outlook is positive as disease

concerns and frost worries will result in short covering

Less supply and of talk of drought in Vietnam to support Robusta prices

SOYBEANS COCOA Our Q2 price forecast is raised with lower prices expected by Q4 due to record US plantings A reduced outlook for Argentina’s soybean crop to

limit global soybean exports for 2012/13 Higher US plantings likely to allow prices to ease

by the end of 2013

Weakness in the cocoa market is likely to continue in the short term on origin hedging but medium term risks appear undervalued West African origins to price in mid crops in

coming weeks Outlook in 2H 2013 supportive as fundamentals

tighten on flat output

PALM OIL COTTON Q2 price forecast for palm oil is slightly lower on slow export demand but above spot Malaysia’s palm oil stocks still historically high but

forecast to decline on reduced production Imports to China and India likely to slow in coming

months

We have revised our cotton price forecasts upwards to reflect strong import demand Price outlook dependent on pace of Chinese

imports program Market trading above fair value at front of curve

and a non‐commercial‐led selloff in June expected

Agri Commodities Monthly

Soybeans in box seat for US acreage battle

March 2013 2

Soybeans appear to have gained ground on corn and cotton this year in the annual battle for acreage in the US. While the USDA is forecasting a record US corn crop in 2013, insured new crop prices suggest corn may lose some acreage to soybeans and spring wheat. We are also a little more cautious in our yield expectations that the USDA, with the lingering effects of last season’s drought a clear reminder not to count your chickens, although recent rain and snow does help improve the outlook for new crop yields. US farmer crop insurance levels, in general derived from the February average of new crop futures contracts, have now been set, with soybean (+2.6% YOY) and spring wheat (+7.6% YOY) prices increasing while corn (‐0.4%) and cotton (‐12.6%) insurance levels have fallen from 2012. Our modelling suggests this will result in around 0.7 million acres less of corn plantings in 2013 than in 2012, with soybeans likely to benefit from a shift towards more normalised soybean/corn rotations after heavy corn‐on‐corn plantings in 2012/13. In the Northern Plains, less productive land may see a switch from corn to spring wheat, while in the Delta, soybeans may also benefit from significantly weaker cotton prices this year. Crop rotation and, ultimately, weather during planting will also play a crucial role in the final composition of US acreage for this season’s summer crops. Recent seasons have seen farmers chasing higher profit levels in corn at the expense of crop rotation with soybeans being skipped for corn‐on‐corn planting, which has perhaps contributed to the 3 sub‐trend yields in the past 3 years. Regardless of the crop being planted, above‐average rainfall across much of the US cropping region in February together with recent widespread snowfall should help boost confidence levels heading into the 2013 campaign.

OUTLOOK

Rabobank quarterly average price forecasts

Source: Bloomberg, Rabobank

US planted area for soybeans and spring wheat is expected to increase, while corn and cotton are set to fall in 2013/14

Despite recent precipitation, drought still covers much of the key agricultural area in the US

Source: Bloomberg, Rabobank Source: USDA, Rabobank

Commodity unit Q1'12 Q2'12 Q3'12 Q4'12 Q1'13(f) Q2'13(f) Q3'13(f) Q4'13(f)

Wheat (CBOT) US¢/bu 643 641 871 846 740 760 700 675Wheat (Matif) EUR/t 210 211 259 264 245 250 204 197Corn US¢/bu 641 618 783 737 715 750 610 570Soybeans US¢/bu 1272 1426 1677 1484 1450 1425 1275 1225Soy Oil US¢/lb 52.9 52.3 54.0 49.6 50.5 51.5 51.0 49.5Soymeal US$/tn 339 413 514 454 425 420 380 325Palm oil MYR/t 3245 3225 2884 2270 2400 2600 2550 2500Sugar US¢/lb 24.6 21.2 21.0 19.7 18.3 18.0 18.5 19.0Coffee (ICE) US¢/lb 205 170 172 152 144 160 170 165Coffee (Liffe) US$/t 1940 2066 2095 1961 2050 2100 2100 2075Cocoa (ICE) US$/t 2308 2222 2438 2421 2125 2275 2475 2500Cocoa (Liffe) GBP/t 1487 1493 1622 1550 1400 1475 1575 1625Cotton US¢/lb 93 81 73 73 81 80 80 85

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March 2013 3

Our CBOT Wheat price forecasts for Q1 and Q2 2013 are slightly reduced with our Q3‐Q4 forecasts maintained below the current futures curve. The reduced Q1 forecast is a result of recent declines in nearby CBOT Wheat prices to USD 6.78/bu amidst bearish positioning by speculators. Managed money has increased its net short position in CBOT wheat contracts to 45,366 contracts, up 27,690 contracts since the beginning of February 2013—exposing the market to a short‐covering rally. However, fundamentals remain supportive, with May CBOT Wheat futures trading at a USD 0.03/bu discount to corn, and an expected rally in CBOT Corn prices likely to be followed higher by CBOT Wheat. The nearby upside target is the 76.4% retracement level at USD 7.28/bu for the May CBOT Wheat contract which, if broken, could see prices move towards our Q2 2013 target of USD 7.50/bu. The lack of additional speculative short positions and support from domestic US corn prices are likely to see prices bottom in early March before a corn‐led rally in the second quarter. We expect prices will rally to an average USD 7.60/bu in Q2 as improved export sales prompt short‐covering by speculators. This represents a USD 0.20/bu decrease from our previous forecast although our rationale remains unchanged with higher exports and low US quarterly corn stocks expected to drive CBOT Wheat prices higher. US wheat export sales were 585 thousand tonnes per week in February, up 52% from January and 29% on the marketing YTD pace. Rabobank continues to see limited evidence of slowing importer demand, and, with US wheat now the world’s cheapest, we expect that the upward trend in exports will continue. Rabobank forecasts US wheat exports of 1,075 million bushels in 2012/13, 25 million bushels above current USDA forecasts.

Managed money has continued to build its net short position in CBOT Wheat contracts during February

US wheat export sales increased during February with Rabobank expecting further increases into the end of 2012/13

Source: Bloomberg, CFTC, Rabobank Source: USDA, Rabobank

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WHEAT

Nearby CBOT Wheat price forecasts are lowered

Nearby CBOT Wheat price forecasts are reduced due to lower wheat demand Speculator net short positions have

likely peaked Rally in corn prices expected to

support wheat prices in Q2 Expanded US spring wheat planted

area likely to offset some of the forecast decline in winter wheat production


unit Q2'12 Q3'12 Q4'12 Q1'13(f) Q2'13(f) Q3'13(f) Q4'13(f)

CBOT US¢/bu 641 871 846 740 760 700 675

Matif EUR/t 211 259 264 245 250 204 197

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CBOT wheat Previous forecast Rabobank Forecast Spot (Mar 13)

March 2013 4

Our forecast wheat feed use for the US is reduced 25 million bushels to 450 million bushels in 2012/13, in line with the USDA, as limited availability is expected to hamper inclusion in cattle feed rations. Profit incentives for wheat‐feeding remain strong, with wheat prices around 88% of corn throughout the Southern Plains but, at this point, discussions with cattle players suggest that wheat use in feed may be limited by low stocks in several areas. Rabobank still expects hog and chicken industry participants to have increased wheat feed use, with shorter animal life cycles allowing feed ration content to be shifted more quickly. However, the reduction in use increases our ending stock estimate 25 million bushels to 669 million bushels—still 50 million bushels below USDA estimates. Stocks‐to‐use is forecast at 27% for 2012/13, 1.2 points below USDA estimates. US spring and durum wheat plantings are likely to rise 8.9% YOY to 15.7 million acres in 2013/14 due to an increase in insurance price levels. Crop insurance for US spring wheat was set at USD 8.44/bu during February, up 7.6% YOY. The insurance levels, based on the February average of September Minni Wheat contracts, showed significant gains YOY versus crop insurance for competing crops such as corn. The spring wheat‐to‐corn crop insurance ratio is 149% for 2013/14, up from 138% a year earlier—but below the 164% in 2011/12. In addition to improved incentives, reduced enrolment in the Conservation Reserve Program indicates that significant new acreage is available in the key spring wheat states of Montana (+0.5 million acres) and North Dakota (+0.7 million acres) in 2013. However, high snow depth in the Northern Plains and Canadian prairies suggests the flood risk is elevated—with the Red River at Fargo, North Dakota given an 80% chance of major flooding by the NOAA. The expected YOY increase in spring wheat plantings and production is unlikely to offset losses in winter wheat production. Spring wheat production is forecast to increase 50 million bushels to 673 million bushels in 2013/14 but total US wheat production is forecast to decline 139 million bushels to 2,130 million bushels—30 million bushels above the USDA Outlook Forum forecast. Increased European wheat production should see the November Matif Wheat contract decline EUR 15/tonne to average EUR 197/tonne in Q4 2013. European wheat production is expected to rise 8 million tonnes YOY to 141 million tonnes in 2013/14, the highest level since 2008/09 when production reached a record 151 million tonnes. Production gains are expected to be the largest in Spain (+1.9 million tonnes YOY), Romania (+1.5 million tonnes YOY) and Germany (+1.2 million tonnes YOY). However, production in the UK is expected to fall 0.5 million tonnes YOY as excess precipitation limits planted area to the lowest levels since 2001/02. We expect this bounce in production to lead prices lower as total use is forecast to increase only slightly, up 1.2 million tonnes YOY to 142 million tonnes. Decreased EU exports in 2013/14 (‐2 million tonnes YOY to 17 million tonnes) is forecast due to increased Black Sea availability, which is expected to be more competitive than European offerings. Export declines are offset by increased feed and residual consumption (+3 million tonnes YOY to 55 million tonnes). However, feed use is not expected to bounce back to 2011/12 levels (58 million tonnes) as improved global supplies make corn a significantly cheaper feedstock, limiting growth in wheat use. European wheat stocks‐to‐use is expected to rise 3.3 points YOY to 9.8% in 2013/14, the highest since 2009/10.

US spring and durum wheat planted area is expected to rise significantly in 2013/14 due to stronger price incentives

US wheat stocks‐to‐use in 2012/13 are forecast at the lowest level since 2007/08 in 2012/13, despite our reduced feed use estimates

Source: USDA, ,Rabobank Source: USDA, Rabobank

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March 2013 5

CBOT Corn price forecasts are maintained above the futures curve. Recent weeks have seen CBOT Corn prices for March delivery rise USD 0.40/bu from the February lows due to strong US domestic demand. This has been particularly evident in US interior basis levels, which remain near record highs, with cash prices in Decatur, Illinois averaging USD 0.33/bu above March futures in February. However, managed money has continued to decrease its net long position in CBOT Corn contracts, intermittently pressuring prices. The managed money net long position now stands at 52,075 contracts —the lowest level since June 2012. Additionally, its gross short position has reached 166,275 contracts, only 24,437 contracts below the all‐time high in April 2010. This is a similar situation to the beginning of 2012 when speculative selling accompanied overly optimistic USDA production forecasts and caused nearby CBOT Corn to drop below USD 6/bu before rallying to more than USD 8/bu. Although recent precipitation in the US has begun to alleviate drought conditions, we believe current values do not fully reflect the production risks which remain, with 36% of the US still in severe/exceptional drought. We maintain our forecast that CBOT Corn prices will rally to USD 7.50/bu in Q2 2013, USD 0.45/bu above current May futures on higher export and feed demand. The March Quarterly Grain Stocks report (released 28 March 2013) is likely to trigger this bounce, with forecast stocks expected to be lower than implied USDA levels. Our analysis suggests that US quarterly stocks will fall to 5,133 million bushels by the end of Q2 2012/13, below levels which would be needed to meet the USDA’s ending stock level forecast of 632 million bushels. Using seasonal demand norms, US feed and residual use for corn will need to decline 12% YOY in Q2 2012/13 to be on target to meet implied USDA forecasts. But with little to no demand‐rationing outside the beef cattle sector, this is unlikely to happen. Slow farmer selling is expected as prices remain below levels seen in Q3 2012, with higher prices required to move whatever stocks are left on farm, to elevators.

CORN

CBOT Corn price forecasts are unchanged

CBOT Corn prices are expected to rally in Q2 2013 on low US corn stocks March 28 Grain Stocks report expected to

be bullish for CBOT Corn prices Demand for old crop US corn increasing US Corn production in 2013/14 forecast to

be significantly below initial USDA estimates


Managed money has continued to reduce its net long position in CBOT Corn contracts during February

US corn feed and residual use must fall 12% YOY in the remaining quarters of 2012/13 to meet USDA estimates

Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, Rabobank Source: USDA, Rabobank


Corn US¢/bu 618 783 737 715 750 610 570

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March 2013 6

We increase our ethanol use forecast for 2012/13 by 25 million bushels to 4,525 million bushels—25 million bushels above USDA estimates. Lower corn prices during February encouraged a rebound in ethanol production, up 4.6% from the start of February to 805 thousand barrels/day as at 3 March. The rebound suggests that incremental end user demand and margins improve significantly at prices below USD 7.00/bu−helping to form a floor for old crop prices. However, the increase in ethanol produc on has not been accompanied by an increase in stocks, with lower January imports of Brazilian cane ethanol requiring US blenders to increase use of corn ethanol. We expect that this is a trend that will continue as import incentives have decreased due to the fact that spreads between conventional (D5, corn ethanol) RINS and advanced (D6, sugar ethanol/biodiesel) RINS have fallen to USD 0.06/gal. Prior to February, this spread had not been below USD 0.20/gal for contracts related to the 2011, 2012 or 2013 government mandate, and averaged USD 0.60/gal during 2012—suggesting that the incentive to blend corn ethanol, relative to advanced biofuels, is high. The tightened spread should temper Brazilian ethanol exports, supporting demand for US corn ethanol. With our corn export estimate reduced 25 million bushels from February to 925 million bushels (still 25 million bushels

above USDA), we forecast 2012/13 ending stocks‐to‐use at 4.9%—0.7 points below current USDA estimates. US corn demand is expected to rise 1,500 million bushels to a record 12,837 million bushels in 2013/14, supported by strong exports and near‐record ethanol margins. We view two main demand factors as supportive for new crop corn prices in the USD 5.00/bu to USD 6.00/bu range.

Chinese corn (Dalian) futures remain in contango, up 1.4% between spot and November 2013, while CBOT Corn is in backwardation of ‐24.1% over the same period. This would imply net import margins in excess of USD 2.74/bu, the highest since 2010. Increased imports may set a ‘Chinese put’ under the market at USD 5.50/bu.

Ethanol production margins would be attractive at corn prices below USD 5.00/bu. In fact, corn prices at this level imply breakevens (controlling for DDG’s revenue) of USD 1.96/gal. This is 36% of the Brazilian gasoline price, 42% of the Chinese gasoline price and 44% of the Canadian gasoline price. We believe that market forces would act to increase ethanol production to maximum capacity if prices fell to this level, with new importers emerging to take advantage of lower prices relative to domestic gasoline.

Rabobank remains bullish new crop corn, with prices forecast to average USD 6.70/bu in Q4 2013—USD 0.20/bu above December CBOT futures. The new crop CBOT Soy/Corn price ratio during February, when US crop insurance rates are set, rose from 2.21 for 2012/13 to 2.28 for the 2013/14 crop year. Subsequently, we reduce our US corn acreage expectations from 97.6 million acres to 96.5 million acres as the price incentive to plant soybeans has risen. This is in line with the USDA Outlook Forum forecast and down 0.7 million acres YOY. However, we would highlight (as we did at this time last year) that yields are a vastly more significant variable in final production—and, in our opinion, the USDA’s yield expectations are too optimistic. The USDA’s corn yield forecast of 164 bushels/acre at the Outlook Forum (same as this time last year) is significantly higher than our forecast of 155 bushels/acre. We forecast final production to be 13,764 million bushels, up 2,910 million bushels YOY, underscoring our lower price expectations for Q4. However, our forecast is 766 million bushels below the USDA’s expectations; bullish for new crop CBOT Corn prices relative to the futures curve.

Ethanol production has risen and stocks have fallen in recent weeks as lower corn prices encouraged distillers

The new crop soybean/corn ratio, based on crop insurance, suggests that soybeans will gain area in 2013/14

Source: Bloomberg, Rabobank Source: Bloomberg, USDA, Rabobank

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March 2013 7

Our CBOT Soybean price forecast is slightly increased for Q2 due to downward revisions to Argentina’s soybean exports but reduced for Q4 due to the prospect of a record US soybean harvest. We reduce our forecast for Argentina’s crop to 50 million tonnes and expect total South American exports to be 2.5 million tonnes below USDA’s 54.4 million tonne forecast. With little room for upward revisions to the US soybean export forecast, we believe old crop CBOT Soybean prices must remain above USD 14/bu in order to ration demand. Furthermore, the high CBOT Soy/Corn price ratio during February prompts us to raise our forecast for US soybean area harvested to 76.9 million acres—up 1% YOY and record large. We therefore raise our Q2 price forecast for CBOT Soybeans on tighter old crop supplies while lowering the Q4 price forecast due to higher US plantings. This is likely to continue shifting the futures curve into backwardation. This has been evident in spreads between old/new crop contracts such as the May contract which is currently trading at USD 1.96/bu premium to the November contract—up from USD 0.86/bu at the beginning of the year.

Demand has remained strong for US soybeans, driven by high Chinese soybean imports. US soybean exports to China have reached 19.5 million tonnes—a record large volume and 65% of total US shipments YTD for 2012/13. Despite this, China’s soybean imports October‐January have dropped 3% YOY to 18.9 million tonnes as South American shipments have dwindled. We believe this has caused China’s soybean reserves to be drawn‐down and will likely result in strong Chinese buying as South American exports increase in Q2. However, given our reduced production outlook for South America, we believe USDA’s forecast for China’s imports in 2012/13 of 63 million tonnes may prove 2 million tonnes too high. Until the US new crop production can be better known, we expect China’s demand will prove supportive of CBOT Soybean prices above USD 14/bu.

The backwardation in the CBOT Soybean futures curve is expected to increase further on tight old crop supplies

The new crop CBOT Soy/Corn price ratio averaged 2.28 in February, which is supportive of higher US soybean plantings

Source: Bloomberg, Rabobank Source: Bloomberg, Rabobank

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SOYBEANS

Nearby CBOT Soybean price forecast above futures curve

Our Q2 price forecast is raised with lower prices expected by Q4 due to record US plantings A reduced outlook for Argentina’s soybean

crop to limit global soybean exports for 2012/13

Higher US plantings likely to allow prices to ease by the end of 2013



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March 2013 8

South America’s production outlook is reduced due to lower expectations for Argentina’s crop. We lower our forecast for Argentina’s crop this month from 52.6 million tonnes to 50 million tonnes. Rainfall in much of Argentina was less than half the normal levels between 20 December and 10 February. Subsequently, conditions have improved with precipitation for the month of February 95% of normal in Santa Fe and 82% of normal in Cordoba. Although this has likely come too late for the earlier planted soybeans, we believe it has proven beneficial for the later planted crops. As a result, our production downgrade to 50 million tonnes is above local forecasts such as the Rosario Exchange (48.0 million tonnes) and the BAGE (48.5 million tonnes). If the current cooler and wetter weather pattern returns to dryness, we will likely further downgrade our production forecast for Argentina. Our production forecast for Brazil is increased this month 0.4 million tonnes to 81.5 million tonnes while we have reduced our Paraguay forecast 0.5 million tonnes to 8.25 million tonnes. The net result is a 2.7 million tonne reduction to our outlook for the South American soybean harvest to 139.4 million tonnes—nearly 5 million tonnes below the USDA’s forecast. Risks to the upcoming record large volume of South American exports are the key reason for our increased Q2 price forecast. We believe South America’s soybean exports for 2012/13 will be 3.5 million tonnes below the USDA’s forecast due to logistical constraints in Brazil and lower‐than‐forecast production in Argentina. In Argentina, our 50 million tonne production forecast is likely to allow only 9.5 million tonnes of soybean exports versus the USDA’s 10.9 million tonnes. Furthermore, we believe the amount of soybeans that would have to be shipped from Brazil during March‐September to reach USDA’s 38.4 million tonne forecast is unrealistic. In our high‐case scenario, we peg Brazil’s exports up 20% YOY during March‐September at 34.7 million tonnes which is below the 36.1 million tonnes required to meet USDA’s forecast. This would still be the largest volume of exports moving to port in Brazil during these months with significant logistic risks. This reduced outlook for exports must result in demand‐rationing as there is little room for additional shipments from the US. US soybean production is likely to be up more than 8% YOY in 2013/14 due to record large area and improved yields. The new crop CBOT Soy/Corn price ratio averaged 2.28 during February (the month when US farmers’ insurance rates are set). This was the highest level in 3 years and up from 2.21 in 2012. Additionally, 3.2 million acres will become available for farming in the US from the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP). Due to large fertilisation needs, farmers in this area will likely favour soybean plantings over corn. This will likely result in a large share of the CRP acreage in North Dakota (640,000 acres), Minnesota (175,000 acres) and Missouri (164,000 acres) being planted to soybeans. As a result, we believe US soybean planted area could reach the second highest on record at 78.0 million acres, with 76.9 million acres harvested. We currently forecast yields up 2.9 bu/acre YOY at 42.5 bu/acre but below USDA’s trend estimate of 44.5 bu/acre. We remain cautious on yield expectations as further improvement in US drought conditions would be needed to achieve trend yields. The increase in our area expectations prompts us to raise our US soybean production 82 million bushels to 3,269 million bushels. This would be the third largest US crop on record and prompts us to lower our CBOT soybean price forecast for Q4 from USD 13.00/bu to USD 12.50/bu.

We forecast South America’s soybean exports 2.5 million tonnes below the USDA

US soybean area harvested is expected to be record high in 2013/14 with yields up 2.9 bu/acre YOY to 42.5 bu/acre

Source: USDA, Rabobank Source: USDA, Rabobank

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March 2013 9

CBOT Soymeal prices are expected to be supported above USD 435/ton in coming weeks due to lower Argentinean soybean supplies and strong US soymeal export demand. Our lower soybean production forecast for Argentina will be supportive of CBOT Soymeal prices given Argentina accounts for nearly half of the world’s soymeal exports. With a 50 million tonne harvest, we forecast Argentina to export less than 27 million tonnes of soymeal in 2012/13—a 3‐year low. After a slow start to the season due to last year’s drought, a record large volume of 18.5 million tonnes of exports are required between April and September. The situation is further complicated by farmers who are holding their crop as a hedge against inflation and devaluation of the Argentinean peso. We expect this will continue to support CBOT Soymeal prices above USD 400/ton as there is little room for additional export demand to shift onto the US soymeal balance sheet. US soymeal sales plus shipments have reached 7.95 million tonnes—92% of the USDA’s 2012/13 forecast only half way through the marketing year. This has largely been driven by strong EU demand with commitments from the US to the EU nearly 4 times higher than last year. CBOT Soymeal prices are expected to remain elevated in order to further ration demand before the next US soybean harvest comes online in September. The pace of US soymeal production which has occurred September‐January (up 9% YOY according to NOPA data) is unlikely to continue as soybean supplies are drawn down. We believe production must fall 16% YOY for the remainder of the 2012/13 marketing year in order to meet USDA’s forecast. This will limit US soymeal supplies for both export and domestic consumption and will require prices to ration demand. As a result, we believe this may result in record large US soymeal exports in 2012/13 and we raise our Q2 price forecast.

EU soymeal imports from the US are more than four times the volume of year‐ago levels

In order to meet USDA’s forecast, US soymeal production must drop 16% YOY for the remainder of the 2012/13 marketing year

Source: USDA, Rabobank Source: NOPA, USDA, Rabobank

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SOYMEAL

CBOT Soymeal price forecast raised

Our soymeal price forecast is raised on reduced supply outlook Argentina’s soymeal exports likely to

fall to a 3‐year low Demand for US soymeal still strong

amidst dwindling US soybean supplies



Soymeal US$/tn 413 514 454 425 420 380 325

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

USd

/ to

n

CBOT Soymeal Previous forecast Rabobank forecast Spot (Mar 13)

March 2013 10

We maintain our CBOT Soy oil price forecast slightly above current futures prices for Q1‐Q2. Prices are likely to continue trading range‐bound in the short term as US stocks are at the highest level in nearly two years and biodiesel demand has been down 46% YOY. Nearby prices recently dropped below USc 50/lb as NOPA reported January soy oil stocks at 2.8 billion pounds—up 35% YOY. Managed money has built a net short position in CBOT Soy oil over the past 4 weeks, reaching 41,697 contracts. This is only 11,724 contracts away from its record net short position, which was reached in November 2012. The downward move in CBOT Soy oil has caused the nearby oil share to decline from 38% in mid‐February to 36%. Given our view that US soymeal supplies will be incredibly tight in coming months amidst rising soy oil supplies, we expect oil share values to remain range‐bound to slightly down.

We expect that a drop in US soy oil production for the remainder of the marketing year will push CBOT Soy oil prices higher in Q2. The USDA forecasts US soy oil production to drop 4% YOY for 2012/13. According to NOPA data, output has been up 12% during September‐January. In order for USDA’s forecast to be met, production must be 13% lower YOY for the remainder of the 2012/13 marketing year. We expect this will result in higher prices in Q2 as soy oil stocks are drawn down. The USDA forecasts US domestic soy oil consumption to be down 2.2% for the full 2012/13 marketing year. However, we believe consumption has been up YOY due to higher food demand. We expect this will require demand‐rationing once soy oil output slows. However, we expect this upward price momentum in the US market will be limited by the global vegetable oil market as EU biodiesel demand wanes and palm oil supplies remain high. This is likely to result in CBOT Soy oil prices for 2013 averaging below 2012 levels.

US soy oil stocks as reported by NOPA in January were at the highest level in nearly 2 years

US soy oil production for the remainder of the 2012/13 marketing year is likely to be down more than 10% YOY

Source: NOPA, Reuters, Rabobank Source: NOPA, USDA, Reuters, Rabobank

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.5

2.7

2.9

3.1

3.3

Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

Sto

cks

(millio

n lb

s)

09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13(f)

Billio

n p

ounds

Sep-Jan Feb-Aug

SOY OIL

CBOT Soy oil price forecast unchanged

Higher CBOT Soy oil prices likely in Q2 as US production slows and stocks decline Short‐term prices likely to be range‐

bound with oil share value capped on high stock levels

US soybean crush likely to drop significantly in 2H 2012/13 on reduced soybean supplies



Soy Oil US¢/lb 52.3 54.0 49.6 50.5 51.5 51.0 49.5

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

USd

/ po

und

CBOT Soy Oil Previous forecast Rabobank forecast Spot (Mar 13)

March 2013 11

Palm oil stocks remain high which prompt us to slightly reduce our Q2‐Q3 MDEX Palm oil price forecast. We expect prices to remain range‐bound in the short term in order to encourage demand and draw down stockpiles. Subsequently, we expect prices to rise on lower palm oil production and reduced soy oil supplies in Q2. Malaysia’s palm oil stocks in January showed their first monthly decline since June 2012 but remained 28% above year‐ago levels at 2.58 million tonnes. February stock levels will be reported 11 March, with average trade estimates expecting a further decline to 2.44 million tonnes. This is largely due to expectations that production will have fallen 13% from the previous month to 1.4 million tonnes.

As palm oil production seasonally declines and soy oil stocks are drown down, we expect MDEX Palm oil prices to move higher in Q2. We estimate Malaysia’s palm oil growing regions experienced precipitation deficits of 31%‐35% during July‐September 2012 which was the critical yield‐forming time frame for February 2013 yields. As a result, we expect Malaysia’s palm oil production to be down more than 15% MOM in February which is below the 13% drop implied by average trade estimates. This is likely to cause MDEX Palm oil prices to rise from current levels. However, we downgrade our Q2 price forecast this month from MYR 2,700/tonne to MYR 2,600/tonne due to lower export demand prospects. Palm oil stocks in the world’s largest importing countries, China and India, are reportedly near record high levels. Despite this, Q2 is likely to see soy oil supplies tighten as the pace of the US soybean crush slows and Argentina’s soy oil exports are limited by our downgrade to their soybean harvest . We therefore expect market sentiment in the broader vegetable oils complex will prove supportive of MDEX Palm oil prices and will cause values to rise in Q2.

We believe February palm oil production in Malaysia dropped 15% MOM to 1.35 million tonnes

USDA is likely overstating soy oil export availability from Brazil, Argentina and the US for the remainder of 2012/13

Source: Bloomberg, Rabobank Source: USDA, GTIS, Rabobank

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Millio

n t

onnes

10/11 11/12 12/13 Rabo

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12

Rest

of

2012/1

3 e

xport

s (m

illio

n to

nnes)

USDA Rabo

PALM OIL

MDEX Palm oil price forecast slightly lowered

Q2 price forecast for palm oil is slightly lower on slow export demand but above spot Malaysia’s palm oil stocks still

historically high but forecast to decline on reduced production

Imports to China and India likely to slow in coming months



Palm Oil MYR/t 3225 2884 2270 2400 2600 2550 2500

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

MYR

/ t

onne

MDEX Palm Oil Previous forecast Rabobank forecast Spot (Mar 13)

March 2013 12

We maintain our expectation that sugar prices will reach a nadir in Q2 and shift modestly higher in 2H 2013 as the large speculator short position declines while users buying support remains strong. The ethanol parity in Brazil, forecast to average near USc 19/lb in 2013, coupled with potential costly logistical constraints are anticipated to support raw prices in NY when the crush begins in April. The managed money gross short position in NY, equivalent to 9.5 million tonnes of sugar, is outsized and likely to fall in the next 2 quarters. While Brazilian and Thai mills still need to sell sugar into the market, user offtake will counter bearish impacts on prices as buyers continue to build inventories. The fall in prices has reduced incentives for sugar production and we foresee a strong likelihood of tightening fundamental outlook for 2013/14, suggesting deferred prices are undervalued. Volatility in the raw sugar market has fallen to multi‐year lows on better supplies, but is likely undervalued relative to risk. Lower volatility is a function of increased stock levels, but the current fall in volatility seems exaggerated relative to the growth in supplies and the risks ahead. Global stocks‐to‐use are forecast to increase to 42.6% at the end of 2012/13, 2.3 percentage points higher than the ten year average. The implied volatility of the second month #11 contract is 20.5%, down 15 percentage points from the 10‐year average at this point in the season. Such a drop in volatility suggests the market is factoring in a continuing build in stocks, but there is an elevated risk that major increases to supply post 2012/13 will be unrealised due to lower prices, competing crop values and the ethanol markets. A projected increase of 3 million tonnes in consumption each season will also tighten fundamentals. As prices drop, the incentive to produce sugar falls, and we believe this is being underrepresented in volatility outlook.

The ethanol curve in sugar price equivalent is much closer to the #11 curve currently compared to the same date last year

Implied volatility in the #11 market in NY is below the 10‐year range at this point in the season

Source: Rabobank, Bloomberg, Source: Rabobank, Bloomberg

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

Mar 12

Jun 12

Sep 12

Dec 12

Mar 13

Jun 13

Sep 13

Dec 13

Mar 14

Jun 14

Sep 14

USc/

lb

#11 Current BMF Ethanol Current

#11 03/2012 BMF Ethanol 03/2012

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Perc

ent

10 Year Range Second Month 10 Year Average

SUGAR

Sugar #11 forecast is unchanged

#11 price forecast maintained as we anticipate higher prices as the Brazilian crush begins Further selling by Thai and Brazilian

producers to continue to cap rallies Short liquidation by speculators and

continued end user buying to support prices



Sugar US¢/lb 21.2 21.0 19.7 18.3 18.0 18.5 19.0

7

12

17

22

27

32

USd

/ po

und

ICE No. 11 sugar Previous Forecast Rabobank Forecast Spot (May 13)

March 2013 13

Sugarcane growth cycles and politically controlled markets will limit the scale and flexibility of global supply response. A reduction significant enough to impact prices and to erode possible surpluses is likely if prices remain low. A supply response to lower prices could come as early as Q3 2013 when the Northern Hemisphere beets are harvested. The US and Europe have a largely closed sugar market, but Russian and CIS production could be reduced as growers shift land into more profitable crops such as wheat or sunflowers. Russia was a major importer 3 seasons ago, but has nearly reached self‐sufficiency in the past two seasons due to higher prices supporting beet production. Lower prices and a likely reduction in area increase the possibility of imports for Russia in 2013/14. With a short sugarcane cycle, Thailand could switch area back to cassava but investments in new mill capacity and government support mean the reaction to lower prices is less certain. Sugar harvests have increased for five consecutive seasons to 2012/13 in part due to higher prices. With the market transitioning to surplus and prices lower, we consider the trend of increasing global output threatened. Indian output and potential imports remain a major variable, and while local sugarcane prices are supportive for output, weather and hydrological conditions remain a major risk. The 2013/14 Indian crop is going to be a major focal point of the market, and if domestic production fails to meet local consumption, international prices will likely react. The Indian sugarcane output is supported by high Indian government prices for sugarcane, but low reservoir levels from a short monsoon last year may result in farmers shifting to other crops. Indian output is forecast to have dropped 10% YOY in 2012/13. A similar drop in 2013/14 would likely result in sizable imports, and may impact the global balance. In nine of the last ten seasons, the YOY change in Indian output represented 61% of the YOY change in global output. The managed money gross short position in NY remains near a historic high while the index fund net position has grown to levels not seen since 2008. The two positions have countered each other, with the managed money net position decreasing 179,024 contracts and the index fund net long position increasing 75,410 contracts in the past 12 months. Since the start of 2011, index funds have increased the net long by 188,068 contracts in a steady progression higher and managed money has decreased the net position by 184,900 contracts in a more volatile manner. The managed money position is just off a record net short and is susceptible to a quick liquidation in the short term on bullish developments. In contrast, index funds are 19% below the net long high reached in 2008 and have the potential to expand further. Index funds are prone to liquidation if the macro outlook deteriorates, but the interest in the raw sugar market of the past two seasons suggests they see value as sugar prices fall. Higher ethanol prices in Brazil have increased the raw sugar price equivalent but falling ethanol prices at the start of the crush should ease the parity. The front end of the current forward curve for ethanol on the BM&F exchange in USc/lb equivalent is higher than nearby #11 sugar prices. Later‐dated ethanol contracts, those during the crush, are below the sugar curve. We maintain our view that given the gasoline price the parity will average near USc 19/lb in 2013 and will likely result in higher sugar prices 2H 2013. The likely repeal of PIS/CONFINS tax could add USc 1/lb‐USc1.5/lb to the parity depending on if producers pass the saving to the consumer.

The YOY change in sugar production illustrates how important India is in the change in global output season by season

The falling managed money net position in #11 contrasts the the index fund net long position for the past two years

Source: Rabobank Source: Rabobank, Bloomberg, CFTC

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

YOY

Cha

nge

in O

utpu

t (M

illio

n To

nnes

)

India Asia Total

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Jun 08

Oct 08

Feb 09

Jun 09

Oct 09

Feb 10

Jun 10

Oct 10

Feb 11

Jun 11

Oct 11

Feb 12

Jun 12

Oct 12

Feb 13

Thou

sand

Con

trac

ts

Thou

sand

Con

trac

ts

Dif ference (RHS) Index Fund Net Managed Money Net

March 2013 14

COFFEE

Price forecasts adjusted higher for both types

Price forecasts moved higher as bullish developments encourage speculator and industry buying Arabica price outlook is positive as

disease concerns and frost worries will result in short covering

Less supply and of talk of drought in Vietnam to support Robusta prices


Rabobank’s Arabica price forecast was increased modestly at the front of the curve, and we continue to expect a 14% increase by the end of the year for quarterly average prices. The concerns about reduced production in Central America are being countered by the expectations of a large 2013 Brazilian crop and has been neutral for prices so far. Front‐month Arabica prices are just 5% up from the multiyear low reached in mid‐December. While the increase in output in Brazil from the previous off‐season crop may compensate for the reduced Central American crop price, support is anticipated due to the Brazilian ability to hold coffee off the market. In 2012/13 Brazilian exports are forecast at a five‐season low despite the large crop. If front‐month NY prices remain at current levels, or lower, Brazilian growers supported by government programmes and in well capitalised positions will be reluctant to sell. If Brazilian selling is disciplined and the Centrals have fewer beans, prices should move higher on speculator short covering and industry buying. The managed gross short in NY is equivalent to 10 million bags of coffee while roasters in general have about 2‐3 months of coverage. Prices are expected to move higher as the frost season in Brazil begins and after the March contract delivery period. We have increased our Robusta price forecast modestly at the second half of the curve on fundamental outlook. Dry conditions in Vietnam have not yet materially impacted 2013/14 production potential in our view, but farmers are having to pay more for water and are expected to hold beans off the market until a better idea of the new crop can be formed. Indonesia exports are likely to move significantly higher in the coming months, February shipments from Sumatra were up 4 fold from the same month the previous season. Despite increased Indonesian output the Robusta market is forecast to be in deficit in 2012/13 supporting London prices.


ICE US¢/lb 170 172 152 144 160 170 165

Liffe US$/t 2066 2095 1961 2030 2100 2150 2100

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

USd

/ po

und

ICE NY coffee Previous Forecast Rabobank Forecast Spot (Mar 13)

Lower Arabica prices and stable Robusta have resulted in a significant drop in the price difference between coffee types

The Robusta market is forecast to be in modest deficit due to reduced output from Vietnam while Arabica is in surplus

Source: Rabobank, Bloomberg Source: Rabobank

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

75

95

115

135

155

175

195

215

235

Dec 11 Feb 12 Apr 12 Jun 12 Aug 12 Oct 12 Dec 12 Feb 13

USc/

lb

Arbitrage (RHS) Robusta Arabica

-15

-10

-5

-

5

10

15

Millio

n Bag

s

Robusta Arabica

March 2013 15

Given the bearish trend, speculator selling and the need for continued price‐fixing by West African producers, we have lowered our 1H 2013 price forecasts. We maintain our view that values will retrace higher in the second half of the year as hedging programmes end and speculators reduce short positions ahead of the 2013/14 crop. The current season is forecast to be in a modest deficit, but this has not moved prices as market focus has been on strong arrival numbers out of Ivory Coast. As fundamentals tighten due to reduced production in other origins, and as grinding figures indicate demand is increasing from the previous season, we expect the market to transition and prices to rise. The production outlook for West Africa remains unchanged with a large Ivorian harvest compensating for lower supplies in neighbouring nations. The outlook for the Ivory Coast mid crop, the harvest of which is set to begin in April, remains mixed with high pod counts suggesting good supply but dry conditions potentially stressing trees. Our forecast output for the region is down 1% YOY in 2012/13. With current futures prices lower the potential for farmer prices to fall for the mid crop or the 2013/14 main crop is likely. Given lower input use and average weather conditions, output in West Africa may remain flat in the coming year, a supportive dynamic if global demand increases in the new season. The volatility in the cocoa market is low relative to production risks and the potential for a consecutive deficit in the 2013/14 season. Implied volatility in the NY market is at a five‐year low, averaging 23% for 2013, down from the 2012 average of 33%. As terminal prices have fallen, farmer prices have also been under pressure, reducing the incentive to produce cocoa. And as fewer inputs are used, crop yields fall. Global production in 2012/13 is forecast to be flat from the previous season, a function of falling prices. If output remains flat again in 2013/14, the deficit will grow, and terminal prices will react. With expectations of falling inventories, industry and speculator buying can be anticipated.

A modest deficit in 2012/13 will lower stocks‐to‐use, while falling prices are not supportive of new season production

Volatility has fallen to five‐year lows despite a possible deficit in 2012/13 and uncertainty about the coming main crop

Source: Rabobank, ICCO Source: Rabobank, Bloomberg

35%

37%

39%

41%

43%

45%

47%

49%

51%

53%

55%

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

Milli

on T

onne

s

Ending Stocks Stocks/Usage

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

Feb 07

Jul 07

Dec 07

May 08

Oct 08

Mar 09

Aug 09

Jan 10

Jun 10

Nov 10

Apr 11

Sep 11

Feb 12

Jul 12

Dec 12

Percent

Hist Vol (180D) Implied Vol NY Front Month (RHS)

COCOA

Our cocoa price forecast lowered at front end

Weakness in the cocoa market is likely to continue in the short term on origin hedging but medium term risks appear undervalued West African origins to price in

mid crops in coming weeks Outlook in 2H 2013 supportive as

fundamentals tighten on flat output



ICE US$/t 2222 2438 2421 2125 2275 2475 2500

Liffe UK£/t 1493 1622 1550 1400 1475 1575 1625

1500

1900

2300

2700

3100

3500

USD

/ tonne

ICE NY cocoa Previous Forecast Rabobank Forecast Spot (Mar 13)

March 2013 16

Cotton prices continue to gain upside momentum in 2013 as the market prices in a 12% reduction in 2013/14 global production. Our Q2 and Q3 forecasts have been adjusted upwards to USc 80/lb as the pace and volume of China’s cotton import demand has exceeded our expectations during MY 2012/13 to date. If Chinese import demand exceeds forecasts, prices will move higher in Q2‐Q3, but we anticipate a reduction in Chinese demand due to high domestic stocks and government restrictions on imports. We still believe that the market is trading above fair value and highlight the risk of a potential selloff, particularly if non‐commercial market participants choose to unwind their gross longs in the July 2013 contract, rather than rolling to Dec 2013. China purchased around 10 million bales during MY 12/13 to January, which is below Rabobank’s 13 million bale full year forecast—down 43% YOY. Import demand spiked in December 2012 and January 2013 at 2.4 million and 2.1 million bales respectively, driving the market to rally. January 2013 imports represented China’s highest January import volume on record, up 39% on January 2011/12. The Chinese Government has also purchased 70% of the local 12/13 crop—around 23 million bales—and domestic prices have plateaued, reducing the spread between Chinese and International prices. But as we are now past the seasonal trade peak, the pace of imports should slow in coming months, easing pressure on prices. However, China’s cotton yarn imports are up 154% YOY, reflecting the shift in the spinning sector away from high‐priced domestic cotton and a growing use of imported yarn in textile manufacturing. Looking ahead to the new crop, our forecast of US harvested acreage has been reduced 8% to 7.6 million acres, which is down 28% YOY. Ongoing dry conditions and below‐average price ratios with new crop soybeans and corn continue to limit cotton acreage despite the recent uptick in prices. US production is expected to reach 14 million bales in 2013/14, down 18% YOY, limiting exportable supplies and potentially driving prices higher in 2014.

China’s record January cotton imports have driven the old crop ICE futures price rally

We forecast a 28% YOY reduction in US cotton acreage will lower the global available exportable supply of cotton for 2013/14

Source: Rabobank, Bloomberg Source: Rabobank, USDA

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

Millio

n ba

les

2012/13 2011/12 5-Year Average

COTTON

Our cotton price forecasts have been adjusted upward

We have revised our cotton price forecasts upwards to reflect strong import demand Price outlook dependent on pace of

Chinese imports program

Market trading above fair value at front of curve and a non‐commercial‐led selloff in June expected



Cotton US¢/lb 81.1 72.8 72.8 81.0 80.0 80.0 85.0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

USc

/ po

und

ICE NY No. 2 cotton Previous Forecast Rabobank Forecast Spot (May 13)

March 2013 17

Monthly Chart Pack

March 2013 18

Global Corn Supply & Demand

(1000 Ha/1000 Mt) 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12(f) 12/13(f) 13/14(f) 11/12(f) 12/13(f)

Beginning Stocks 110,218 132,167 148,080 145,911 127,923 124,619 102,440 127,923 131,007

Area Harvested 160,457 159,061 158,541 163,897 169,637 174,118 177,720 169,679 174,806

Yield 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.1 5.2 4.8 5.3 5.2 4.9

Production 795,329 800,395 822,488 832,325 877,652 837,948 947,073 882,472 854,376

Imports 98,256 82,470 89,775 92,385 100,264 97,670 103,794 99,000 95,670

Total Supply 1,003,803 1,015,032 1,060,343 1,070,621 1,105,839 1,060,237 1,153,307 1,109,395 1,081,053

Exports 98,645 84,486 96,858 91,478 115,375 90,611 101,764 117,025 90,026

Feed Consumption 498,229 481,480 489,936 501,821 508,876 518,846 548,503 504,594 520,235

FSI Consumption 274,762 300,986 328,432 349,399 356,969 348,339 368,578 356,769 352,751

Total Consumption 772,991 782,466 818,368 851,220 865,845 867,185 917,081 861,363 872,986

Total Usage 871,636 866,952 915,226 942,698 981,220 957,797 1,018,845 978,388 963,012

Surplus Deficit 22,338 17,929 4,120 ‐18,895 11,807 ‐29,238 29,991 21,109 ‐18,610

Ending Stocks 132,167 148,080 145,117 127,923 124,619 102,440 134,462 131,007 118,041

Stocks/Usage 17.1% 18.9% 17.7% 15.0% 14.4% 11.8% 14.7% 15.2% 13.5%

Global Wheat Supply & Demand

(1000 Ha/1000 Mt) 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12(f) 12/13(f) 13/14(f) 11/12(f) 12/13(f)


Area Harvested 217,116 224,670 225,779 217,132 222,778 218,235 223,029 221,757 215,845

Yield 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.0

Production 611,888 682,808 686,563 652,021 694,577 638,959 694,124 696,637 653,614

Imports 113,525 137,960 133,792 131,640 148,473 142,456 143,726 148,465 139,253

Total Supply 859,353 948,817 987,927 984,682 1,040,985 984,167 1,012,456 1,043,037 989,406

Exports 117,303 144,527 137,222 132,759 155,141 132,615 137,900 157,292 131,666


FSI Consumption 511,833 515,524 530,108 537,882 541,073 547,086 554,258 542,164 547,951


Total Usage 731,304 781,245 787,664 786,747 838,232 809,562 827,275 846,498 812,678

Surplus Deficit ‐2,113 46,090 36,121 ‐1,967 11,486 ‐37,988 4,750 7,431 ‐27,398

Ending Stocks 128,049 167,572 200,263 197,935 202,753 174,605 185,181 196,539 176,728

Stocks/Usage 20.9% 26.3% 30.8% 30.3% 29.7% 25.8% 26.9% 28.5% 26.0%

Source: USDA, Rabobank

Rabobank

Rabobank

USDA

Global Agri Commodity Balance Sheets

USDA

March 2013 19

Global Soybean Supply & Demand

(1000 Ha/1000 Mt) 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12(f) 12/13(f) 13/14(f) 11/12(f) 12/13(f)


Area Harvested 90,591 96,340 102,164 102,998 103,665 108,760 110,190 102,895 108,899

Yield 2.4 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.5

Production 219,545 211,636 260,245 263,589 237,811 263,069 275,202 238,725 269,499

Imports 78,336 77,391 86,838 88,796 93,175 95,360 102,157 93,206 96,550

Total Supply 360,378 341,298 390,441 413,000 400,908 413,219 433,356 401,853 421,298

Exports 78,628 76,894 91,862 91,116 89,955 96,231 103,285 90,423 98,861

Crush 202,200 193,115 209,257 221,341 226,791 230,864 238,061 226,791 232,063

Seed/Feed/Residual 27,279 27,931 28,707 30,621 29,372 30,128 31,015 29,390 30,252


Total Usage 308,107 297,940 329,826 343,078 346,118 357,222 372,361 346,604 361,176

Surplus/Deficit ‐10,226 ‐8,913 17,257 9,307 ‐15,133 1,207 4,998 ‐14,673 4,873

Ending Stocks 52,271 43,358 60,615 69,922 54,790 55,997 60,995 55,249 60,122

Stocks/Usage 22.8% 19.6% 25.5% 27.8% 21.4% 21.5% 22.7% 21.6% 22.9%

Global Palm Oil Supply & Demand

(1000 Mt) 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12(f) 12/13(f) 13/14(f) 11/12(f) 12/13(f)


Production 41,028 44,018 45,873 47,923 50,699 54,027 56,863 50,699 53,327

Imports 30,457 34,055 35,317 36,112 38,111 40,286 42,209 38,111 39,786

Total Supply 76,460 82,454 86,007 89,499 94,492 100,986 106,301 94,492 99,786

Exports 32,317 34,932 35,752 37,047 38,957 40,918 43,564 38,957 40,791

Food Consumption 29,822 31,589 32,962 34,263 35,460 37,617 39,072 35,460 37,466

Industrial 9,237 10,316 10,993 11,879 12,806 13,960 14,429 12,806 13,628

Feed 703 800 836 628 596 1,262 1,496 596 698


Total Usage 72,079 77,637 80,543 83,817 87,819 93,757 98,560 87,819 92,583

Surplus Deficit ‐594 436 647 218 991 556 512 991 530

Ending Stocks 4,381 4,817 5,464 5,682 6,673 7,229 7,741 6,673 7,203

Stocks/Usage 11.0% 11.3% 12.2% 12.1% 13.7% 13.7% 14.1% 13.7% 13.9%


USDARabobank

USDA


Rabobank

March 2013 20

Global Cotton Supply & Demand

(1000 Ha/1000 480lb Bales ) 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12(f) 12/13(f) 13/14(f) 11/12 (f) 12/13(f)

Beginning Stocks 61,895 61,542 46,653 48,779 67,641 77,417 48,779 68,851

Area Harvested 30,568 30,133 33,453 35,797 33,825 30,068 35,522 34,026

Yield 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5

Production 107,244 102,158 116,331 124,236 116,422 102,112 124,134 118,831

Imports 30,477 36,350 35,669 44,700 38,521 32,000 44,700 38,874

Total Supply 199,616 200,050 198,653 217,715 222,584 211,529 217,613 226,556

Exports 30,215 35,562 35,490 45,916 38,536 32,000 45,916 38,890

Loss ‐2,171 ‐807 111 1,216 15 0 ‐245 ‐111

Use 110,030 118,642 114,054 102,942 106,617 109,916 103,091 106,061

Total Domestic Use 107,859 117,835 114,165 104,158 106,632 109,916 102,846 105,950

Total Usage 138,074 153,397 149,655 150,074 145,168 141,916 148,762 144,840

Surplus/Deficit ‐2,786 ‐16,484 2,277 21,294 9,805 ‐7,804 21,043 12,770

Ending Stocks 61,542 46,653 48,998 67,641 77,417 69,613 68,851 81,716

Stocks/Usage 56% 39% 43% 66% 73% 63% 67% 77%

Global Coffee Supply & Demand

(1000 60 kg bags) 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 (f) 12/13(f)


Arabica Production 69,855 82,197 73,124 82,840 74,512 86,158 79,149 87,777

Robusta Production 45,692 50,067 47,763 53,462 53,817 55,651 60,389 62,351

Total Output 115,547 132,264 120,887 136,302 128,329 141,809 139,538 150,128

Imports 91,018 97,018 97,198 96,931 93,800 105,000 110,000 108,000

Total Supply 260,948 272,377 264,033 267,455 260,118 278,884 285,858 293,373

Exports 93,377 98,000 97,844 97,303 93,000 105,000 110,000 108,000

Soluble Use 14,800 15,400 16,500 15,185 16,500 17,400 18,100 20,100

Use 109,676 113,029 115,467 116,978 118,543 120,165 122,513 123,300

Total Consumption 124,476 128,429 131,967 132,163 135,043 137,565 140,613 143,400

Total Usage 217,853 226,429 229,811 229,466 228,043 242,565 250,613 251,400

Surplus/Deficit ‐8,929 3,835 ‐11,080 4,139 ‐6,714 4,244 ‐1,075 6,728

Ending Stocks 43,095 45,948 34,222 37,989 32,075 36,319 35,245 41,973

Stocks/Usage 35% 36% 26% 29% 24% 26% 25% 29%

Global Sugar Supply & Demand (1000 Mt) 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 (f) 12/13(f)


Production 151,080 166,414 166,576 151,257 160,534 166,347 177,455 183,268

Imports 47,758 46,668 45,291 47,411 54,120 52,207 50,371 49,156

Total Supply 257,607 227,361 235,613 221,549 214,485 216,857 231,546 238,988

Exports 51,047 51,270 50,636 50,829 56,441 54,700 54,814 54,117

Consumption 147,344 153,424 160,186 160,691 160,761 160,720 165,600 169,779

Total Usage 198,391 153,425 160,159 160,647 160,743 161,445 166,688 169,468

Surplus/Deficit 447 8,388 1,045 ‐12,852 ‐2,547 3,135 7,412 8,528

Ending Stocks 59,216 67,604 68,649 55,797 53,251 56,385 63,798 72,326

Stocks/Usage 41% 45% 44% 36% 32% 32% 37% 43%

Global Cocoa Supply & Demand

(1000 Tonnes) 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 (f) 12/13(f)

Production 3,786 3,434 3,708 3,614 3,586 4,272 4,001 3,992

Ivory Coast 1,408 1,229 1,382 1,222 1,245 1,500 1,475 1,590

Ghana 740 614 711 680 620 1,025 879 780

Grindings 3,527 3,700 3,771 3,519 3,715 3,920 3,916 4,050

Surplus/Deficit 221 ‐300 ‐77 23 ‐165 310 85 ‐58

Ending Stocks 1,906 1,645 1,584 1,607 1,442 1,752 1,837 1,780

Stocks to Use 54% 44% 42% 46% 39% 45% 47% 44%

Source: Rabobank, ICCO, USDA


Rabobank

Rabobank

Rabobank

Rabobank

USDA

March 2013 21

US Corn Supply & Demand

(Mln acres/Mln bu.) 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12(f) 12/13(f) 13/14(f) 11/12(f) 12/13(f)

Beginning Stocks 1,304 1,624 1,673 1,708 1,128 989 560 1,128 989

Area Harvested 86.5 78.6 79.5 81.4 84.0 87.4 88.8 84.0 87.4

Yield 150.7 153.9 164.7 152.8 147.2 123.4 155.0 147.2 123.4

Production 13,038 12,092 13,092 12,447 12,360 10,782 13,764 12,360 10,780

Imports 20 14 8 28 29 125 20 29 100

Total Supply 14,361 13,729 14,773 14,182 13,516 11,897 14,344 13,516 11,869

Exports 2,437 1,849 1,980 1,834 1,543 925 1,500 1,543 900


FSI Consumption 4,442 5,025 5,961 6,425 6,437 5,912 6,487 6,437 5,887

Ethanol Usage 3,049 3,709 4,568 5,021 5,011 4,525 5,100 5,011 4,500


Total Usage 12,737 12,056 13,066 13,055 12,527 11,337 12,837 12,527 11,237

Ending Stocks 1,624 1,673 1,708 1,128 989 560 1,507 989 632

Stocks/Usage 12.8% 13.9% 13.1% 8.6% 7.9% 4.9% 11.7% 7.9% 5.6%

US Soybean Supply & Demand

(Mln acres/Mln bu.) 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12(f) 12/13(f) 13/14(f) 11/12(f) 12/13(f)

Beginning Stocks 574 205 138 151 215 169 124 215 169

Area Harvested 64.1 74.7 76.4 76.6 73.8 76.1 76.9 73.8 76.1

Yield 41.73 39.73 43.98 43.5 41.93 39.62 42.50 41.93 39.62

Production 2,677 2,967 3,359 3,329 3,094 3,015 3,269 3,094 3,015

Imports 10 13 15 14 16 20 15 16 20

Total Supply 3,261 3,185 3,512 3,495 3,325 3,204 3,408 3,325 3,204

Exports 1,159 1,279 1,499 1,501 1,362 1,345 1,435 1,362 1,345

Crush 1,803 1,662 1,752 1,648 1,703 1,620 1,680 1,703 1,615

Seed/Feed/Residual 94 106 110 131 90 115 93 90 120

Domestic Consumption 1,897 1,768 1,862 1,779 1,793 1,735 1,773 1,793 1,735

Total Usage 3,056 3,047 3,361 3,279 3,155 3,080 3,208 3,155 3,080

Surplus/Deficit ‐369 ‐67 13 64 ‐46 ‐45 76 ‐46 ‐45

Ending Stocks 205 138 151 215 169 124 200 169 125

Stocks/Usage 6.7% 4.5% 4.5% 6.6% 5.4% 4.0% 6.3% 5.4% 4.1%

US Wheat Supply & Demand (Mln acres/Mln bu.) 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12(f) 12/13(f) 13/14(f) 11/12(f) 12/13(f)

Beginning Stocks 456 306 656 976 863 743 669 863 743

Area Harvested 51.0 55.7 49.9 47.6 45.7 49.0 47.2 45.7 49.0

Yield 40.2 44.9 44.5 46.4 43.8 46.3 44.7 43.8 46.3

Production 2,051 2,499 2,218 2,207 1,999 2,269 2,108 1,999 2,269

Imports 113 127 119 97 112 130 130 112 130

Total Supply 2,620 2,932 2,993 3,280 2,974 3,142 2,906 2,974 3,142

Exports 1,262 1,015 879 1,289 1,050 1,075 1,075 1,050 1,050

Feed Consumption 16 255 150 132 163 375 140 164 375

FSI Consumption 1,035 1,005 988 996 1,018 1,023 1,030 1,018 1,025


Total Usage 2,314 2,275 2,017 2,417 2,231 2,473 2,245 2,231 2,450

Surplus Deficit ‐150 351 318 ‐113 ‐120 ‐74 ‐7 ‐119 ‐51

Ending Stocks 306 656 976 863 743 669 661 743 692

Stocks/Usage 13.2% 28.9% 48.4% 35.7% 33.3% 27.0% 29.5% 33.3% 28.2%

US Cotton Supply & Demand Rabobank USDA(Mln acres/1000 Bales) 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12(f) 12/13(f) 13/14(f) 11/12(f) 12/13(f)


Area Harvested 10,490 7,569 7,529 10,700 9,462 10,502 7,482 9,462 9,427

Yield 878.9 812.7 777.0 812.2 789.9 777.0 898.1 790.0 866.1

Production 19,207 12,815 12,188 18,104 15,570 17,000 14,000 15,573 17,010

Imports 12 0 0 9 19 0 1 19 5

Total Supply 28,698 22,866 18,525 21,060 18,189 20,347 18,548 18,192 20,365

Exports 13,634 13,261 12,037 14,376 11,714 12,300 12,000 11,714 12,200

Loss 429 ‐273 ‐9 184 ‐172 0 0 ‐172 ‐35

Use 4,584 3,541 3,550 3,900 3,300 3,500 3,500 3,300 3,400

Total Usage 18,647 16,529 15,578 18,460 14,842 15,800 15,500 14,842 15,565

Net Trade 13,622 13,261 12,037 14,367 11,695 12,300 11,999 11,695 12,195

Surplus/Deficit 572 ‐3,714 ‐3,390 ‐347 747 1,200 ‐1,499 750 1,450

Ending Stocks 10,051 6,337 2,947 2,600 3,347 4,547 3,048 3,350 4,800

Stocks/Usage 53.9% 38.3% 18.9% 14.1% 22.6% 28.8% 19.7% 22.6% 30.8%


USDA

USDARabobank

Rabobank

Rabobank

US Agri Commodity Balance Sheets

USDA

March 2013 22

Source: Bloomberg, China General Administration of Customs

China's Agri Commodity Imports

Corn Wheat Rice

Soybeans Edible Vegetable Oils Palm oil

Soy oil Coffee Cotton

Sugar Pork Chicken

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

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March 2013 23

* Includes futures and options

Speculator Net Length vs. ICE No.11 Sugar Speculator Net Length vs. ICE Coffee

Speculator Net Length vs. ICE Cocoa Speculator Net Length vs. ICE No.2 Cotton

Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, Rabobank

Speculator Net Length vs. CBOT Soybean Oil Speculator Net Length vs. CBOT Soybean Meal

Speculator Net Positions*

26-Feb-13

Speculator Net Length vs. CBOT Corn Speculator Net Length vs. CBOT Wheat

Speculator Net Length vs. KCBT Wheat Speculator Net Length vs. CBOT Soybean

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Jun 06 Dec 06 Jun 07 Dec 07 Jun 08 Dec 08Jun 09 Dec 09Jun 10 Dec 10Jun 11Dec 11 Jun 12Dec 12

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Speculator (Managed Money & Other Reportables) CBOT Wheat (RHS)

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Jun 06 Dec 06 Jun 07 Dec 07 Jun 08 Dec 08 Jun 09 Dec 09 Jun 10 Dec 10 Jun 11 Dec 11 Jun 12 Dec 12

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March 2013 24

US Export Sales

Weekly US Corn Export Sales Weekly US Wheat Export Sales (All Wheat)


Weekly US Hard Red Winter Wheat Export Sales Weekly US Hard Red Spring Wheat Export Sales

Weekly US Soft Red Winter Wheat Export Sales Weekly US Durum Wheat Export Sales

-0.5

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US & EU Export Sales

Weekly US Soybean Export Sales Weekly US Soybean Meal Export Sales

Weekly US Soybean Oil Export Sales Weekly US Cotton Export Sales

Weekly EU Wheat Export Licenses Weekly EU Barley Export Licenses

Source: USDA, EU Commission, Rabobank

-0.5

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March 2013 26

Source: Bloomberg, USDA, Rabobank

Livestock Datapoints

US Broilers Placed for Meat US Eggs Set in Incubators US Cattle on Feed

US Marketings of Fed Cattle US Placements in Feedlots US Hogs and Pigs Inventory

US Pigs Kept for Breeding Brazil Poultry Exports Brazil Beef Exports

US Chicken-to-Corn Price Ratio Historic Cattle Crush Forward Hog Crush

145

150

155

160

165

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175

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2011 2012 2013

175

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185

190

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10

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61

62

63

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66

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69

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2010 2011 2012

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5,720

5,740

5,760

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2010 2011 2012

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18

20

75

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85

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105

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

USd

/lb.

Georgia Dock Whole Bird Chicken-to-corn price ratio (RHS)

-250

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-100

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0

50

1 7 13 19 25 31 37 43 49

USD

/hd

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13

0

10

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60

Oct-12Mar-13

Jan-13Jun-13

Apr-13Sep-13

Jul-13Dec-13

Oct-13Mar-14

Jan-14Jun-14

US

D/h

d

Forward Hog Crush

PlaceSell

March 2013 27

Derivative Markets As of: 07-Mar-2013

Volatility

Current Close Prev. Mth. Net Chg. Percent Chg. Net Chg. Percent Chg. 90D Historical 1 Mth. Chg. 3 Mth. Implied 1 Mth. Chg. 12 Mth Avg. Impl

12 Mth High Impl.

12 Mth Low Impl.

Grains & Oilseeds

CBOT Wheat US¢/bu 678.00 756.00 -78.0 -10.3% -100.00 -12.9% CBOT Wheat 19.9 -2.2 26.4 0.9 30.1 47.6 21.8

KCBT Wheat US¢/bu 729.50 809.75 -80.3 -9.9% -101.50 -12.2% KCBT Wheat 18.6 -2.7 22.6 -0.4 28.2 38.6 21.5

MGE Wheat US¢/bu 811.75 839.25 -27.5 -3.3% -53.75 -6.2% MGE Wheat 15.2 -2.0 20.6 -0.4 26.1 43.8 18.5

Matif Wheat EUR/t 237.00 245.00 -8.0 -3.3% -13.25 -5.3% Matif Wheat 17.3 -0.5 19.7 1.3 24.2 38.3 17.3

CBOT Corn US¢/bu 710.00 710.75 -0.8 -0.1% 11.75 1.7% CBOT Corn 16.5 -4.0 23.0 1.5 28.3 41.9 19.9

CBOT Soybeans US¢/bu 1,490.00 1,486.75 3.3 0.2% 71.25 5.0% CBOT Soybeans 19.9 -0.6 19.5 -0.0 23.1 37.2 18.5

CBOT Soybean Meal USD/st 436.30 437.60 -1.3 -0.3% 15.70 3.7% CBOT Soybean Meal 23.5 -0.6 23.3 0.6 25.1 39.9 19.4

CBOT Soybean Oil USD/lb 50.08 51.85 -1.8 -3.4% 0.92 1.9% CBOT Soybean Oil 18.0 -0.8 17.0 -0.9 19.7 24.7 16.6

MDEX Palm Oil MYR/t 2,422.00 2,470.00 -48.0 -1.9% 102.00 4.4% MDEX Palm Oil 29.7 -8.1 - - - - - - - - - -

Matif Rapeseed EUR/t 471.50 472.00 -0.5 -0.1% 15.25 3.3% Matif Rapeseed 17.4 -1.9 13.1 -0.9 16.5 21.8 21.8

ICE Canada Canola CAD/t 644.10 638.20 5.9 0.9% 42.30 7.0% ICE Canada Canola 18.8 -1.1 15.4 0.2 16.0 20.5 12.9

Softs

ICE NY No. 11 SugarUS¢/lb 18.23 18.16 0.1 0.4% -1.28 -6.6% ICE NY No. 11 Sugar 21.7 -4.0 19.8 -1.8 24.9 31.5 19.8

Liffe No. 5 Sugar USD/t 519.40 490.40 29.0 5.9% -4.30 -0.8% Liffe No. 5 Sugar 19.1 -1.0 19.4 3.8 19.6 22.9 15.2

ICE NY Coffee US¢/lb 139.95 140.30 -0.4 -0.2% -3.85 -2.7% ICE NY Coffee 32.8 -1.9 25.9 0.6 29.8 36.7 24.8

BM&F Arabica USD/60kg ba 165.15 175.00 -9.8 -5.6% -18.05 -9.9% BM&F Arabica 26.9 -2.0 26.8 - - 34.5 51.7 24.1

Liffe Robusta Coffee USD/t 2,105.00 2,098.00 7.0 0.3% 142.00 7.2% Liffe Robusta Coffee 18.7 -0.7 19.9 -3.5 25.9 32.9 19.9

ICE NY Cocoa USD/t 2,046.00 2,223.00 -177.0 -8.0% -190.00 -8.5% ICE NY Cocoa 21.1 -1.9 22.4 -0.1 29.7 37.1 21.0

Liffe Cocoa GBP/t 1,372.00 1,457.00 -85.0 -5.8% -63.00 -4.4% Liffe Cocoa 19.6 -3.6 20.4 -2.0 28.9 35.3 20.4

ICE NY No. 2 Cotton US¢/lb 86.76 81.40 5.4 6.6% 11.62 15.5% ICE NY No. 2 Cotton 18.9 -2.9 26.0 1.5 25.1 34.1 19.4

Livestock

CME Live Cattle US¢/lb 128.70 127.55 1.1 0.9% -1.20 -0.9% CME Live Cattle 10.7 0.5 10.4 -0.7 12.5 16.1 9.2

CME Feeder Cattle US¢/lb 140.40 147.20 -6.8 -4.6% -11.00 -7.3% CME Feeder Cattle 11.0 0.8 12.4 1.1 12.5 20.7 9.9

CME Lean Hogs US¢/lb 79.85 86.98 -7.1 -8.2% -5.88 -6.9% CME Lean Hogs 15.7 -1.4 15.4 1.0 18.5 24.2 14.2

Cash MarketsLast Update Price 1 Wk Chg. 1 Mth Chg. 12 Mth Chg. YTD Chg. Last Update Price 1 Wk Chg. 1 Mth Chg. 12 Mth Chg. YTD Chg.

Milling Wheat Soybeans

06/03/2013 7.50 -0.3 -0.89 0.36 -1.00 US (FOB Gulf USD/t) 01/03/2013 562 -6.5 -15 46 -38

05/03/2013 8.40 0.2 -0.57 0.44 -0.71 Argentina (FOB USD/t) 11/01/2013 507 -96.4 -96 105 -96

05/09/2012 9.65 -0.3 -0.25 -0.68 -0.23 Brazil (FOB USD/t) 01/03/2013 534 -15.0 -19 21 -6

06/03/2013 268 0.0 -20 -11 -83 Soybean Meal

06/03/2013 315 -6.5 -21 29 -26 US Hi Pro (FOB USD/ton) 06/03/2013 448 6.0 -7 83 12

01/03/2013 252 -3.0 -11 39 -12 Argentina Hi Pro (FOB USD/t) 05/03/2013 497 2.0 -19 108 -39

Feed Wheat/Barley Dutch 44-47% (FOB Rot. USD/t) 05/03/2013 520 8.0 8 108 -44

06/03/2013 220.24 0.9 -7.07 9.00 -28.28 Vegetable Oils

11/01/2011 260.00 0.0 10.00 89.00 0.00 US Soybean Oil (FOB US¢/lb) 06/03/2013 48.8 1.2 -1.7 -3.5 2.6

Corn Brz. Soybean Oil (FOB USD/t) 06/03/2013 1,071 -31.1 -79 -115 -40

06/03/2013 7.64 -0.1 -0.18 0.44 0.10 Arg. Soybean Oil (FOB USD/t) 06/03/2013 1,068 -33.3 -79 -100 -37

01/03/2013 274 10.3 -10 -2 -8 Soybean Oil (CIF Rot. EUR/t) 07/03/2013 865 13.0 -7 -105 3

Sugar Rapeseed Oil (CIF Rot. EUR/t) 07/03/2013 900 5.0 -10 -65 0

18/01/2013 403.8 -3.3 3.5 -144.0 -15.0 CPO (CIF Rot. USD/t) 07/03/2013 870 25.0 8 -263 60

18/01/2013 487.3 -6.5 -4.3 -168.8 -12.5 Mal. CPO (FOB USD/t) 06/03/2013 805 -5.0 -28 -298 25

18/01/2013 433.8 -2.3 4.5 -150.0 -14.0 Coffee

07/03/2013 3,330 -20.0 -40 347 -116 ICO Coffee Indicator (US¢/lb) 06/03/2013 131.7 -0.9 -0.7 -40.6 2.3

07/03/2013 3,083 -22.0 -36 285 -122 Colombian Milds (US¢/lb) 06/03/2013 161.1 -1.7 -1.0 -69.3 0.1

Cocoa Brazilian Naturals (US¢/lb) 01/03/2013 137.0 -0.4 -5.5 -73.1 -0.9

28/03/2013 2,168 86.3 0 -192 -124 Vietnam Robusta (USD/t) 06/03/2013 2,304 55.1 26 96 143

22/02/2013 2,309 -55.0 -179 -286 -150 Cotton

22/02/2013 2,407 -22.0 -166 -238 -132 Cotlook A Index (US¢/lb) 06/03/2013 102.85 5.0 4.85 -9.20 11.41

22/02/2013 2,462 -22.0 -166 -258 -147 US Middling Avg. (US¢/lb 06/03/2013 94.78 3.2 5.84 -3.56 11.34

Source: Bloomberg N.B.Cash market prices are indicative only and should not be considered as a reliable source of actual traded prices

Ghana (Del. NY USD/t)

Prices Month on Month Year-to-Date

CNF Black Sea (USD/t)

MCXSUGM Comdty

MCXSUGS Comdty

ICCO Cocoa Indicator (USD/t)

Indonesia (Del. NY USD/t)

Ivory Coast (Del. NY USD/t)

Rouen Feed Barley (FOB USD/t)

Ukraine Feed Wheat (USD/t)

US No. 2 (CIF Gulf USD/bu)

Argentine (FOB Up River USD/t)

World Raws (USD/t)

Benchmark Agricultural Commodity Prices

World Whites (USD/t)

US SRW (CIF Gulf USD/bu)

US HRW (CIF Gulf USD/bu)

US DNS (CIF PNW USD/bu)

Russia #4 (FOB Novo. USD/t)

French 11% (FOB Rouen USD/t)

German B (CIF Hbg EUR/t)

March 2013 28

Source: Bloomberg

CBOT Corn CBOT Wheat KCBT Wheat

Grains & Oilseed Futures Forward Curves

Liffe Wheat ICE Winnipeg Canola Matif Rapeseed

CBOT Soybeans CBOT Soybean Oil CBOT Soybean Meal

MGE Wheat Matif Wheat MDEX Palm Oil

530

580

630

680

730

780

US

¢ /

bu

Spot 1 Week Ago 1 Mth Ago

670

690

710

730

750

770

790

810

830

850

US

¢ /

bu


720

740

760

780

800

820

840

860

880

900

US

¢ /

bu


1,200

1,250

1,300

1,350

1,400

1,450

1,500

1,550

US

¢ /

bu


49

50

51

52

53

54U

S¢

/ lb


340

360

380

400

420

440

460

US

D /

ton


780

800

820

840

860

880

900

920

US

¢ /

bu


200

210

220

230

240

250

260

EUR

/ t

onn

e


2,350

2,400

2,450

2,500

2,550

2,600

2,650

2,700

MY

R /

ton

ne


160

170

180

190

200

210

220

GB

P /

ton

ne


520

540

560

580

600

620

640

660

CA

D /

ton

ne


400

410

420

430

440

450

460

470

480

490

EUR

/ t

onn

e


March 2013 29

Source: Bloomberg

Liffe Cocoa Liffe Coffee CME Live Cattle

CME Feeder Cattle CME Lean Hogs ICE NY Frozen Concnetrated Orange Juice

Softs & Livestock Futures Forward Curves

ICE NY Sugar ICE NY Coffee ICE NY Cocoa

Liffe Sugar BM&F Arabica Coffee ICE NY Cotton

17

18

19

20

21

US

¢ /

lb


135

140

145

150

155

160

165

170

175

180

US

¢ /

lb


2,000

2,050

2,100

2,150

2,200

2,250

2,300

US

D /

ton

ne


1,360

1,380

1,400

1,420

1,440

1,460

1,480

1,500

GB

P/t

onn

e


1,950

2,000

2,050

2,100

2,150

2,200

US

D /

ton

ne


122

124

126

128

130

132

134

136

138

US

¢ /

lb


140

145

150

155

160

165

US

¢ /

lb


78

83

88

93

98

US

¢/

lb


160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200U

SD

/ 6

0kg

bag


118

120

122

124

126

128

130

US

¢ /

lb


490

500

510

520

530

540

550

US

D /

ton

ne


80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

US

¢ /

lb


March 2013 30

Source: Bloomberg

MGE Wheat Matif Wheat MDEX Palm Oil

Euronext Liffe Wheat ICE Winnipeg Canola Matif Rapeseed

Grains & Oilseed Spot Continuous Prices

CBOT Corn CBOT Wheat KCBT Wheat

CBOT Soybeans CBOT Soybean Oil CBOT Soybean Meal

650

670

690

710

730

750

770

790

810

830

850

US

¢ /

bu

CBOT Corn 20 Day Mov Avg. 50 Day mov Avg.

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

US

¢ /

bu

CBOT Wheat 20 Day Mov Avg. 50 Day Mov Avg.

700

750

800

850

900

950

US

¢ /

bu

KCBT Wheat 20 Day Mov Avg. 50 Day Mov Avg.

47

49

51

53

55

57U

S¢

/ lb

CBOT Soybean Oil 20 Day Mov Avg. 50 Day Mov Avg.

1,350

1,400

1,450

1,500

1,550

1,600

1,650

1,700

1,750

1,800

US

¢ /

bu

CBOT Soybeans 20 Day Mov Avg.50 Day Mov Avg.

375

395

415

435

455

475

495

515

535

555

575

US

D/t

on

CBOT Soybean Meal 20 Day Mov Avg. 50 Day Mov Avg.

775

825

875

925

975

1,025

US

¢ /

bu

MGE Wheat 20 Day Mov Avg. 50 Day Mov Avg.

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

EUR

/ to

nn

e

Matif Wheat 20 Day Mov Avg. 50 Day Mov Avg.

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

3,000

3,200

MY

R/

ton

ne

MDEX Palm Oil 20 Day Mov Avg. 50 Day Mov Avg.

180

185

190

195

200

205

210

215

220

225

230

GB

P/t

onn

e

Liffe Wheat 20 Day Mov Avg. 50 Day Mov Avg.

570

580

590

600

610

620

630

640

650

660

CA

D /

ton

ne

ICE Canola 20 Day Mov Avg. 50 Day Mov Avg.

440

450

460

470

480

490

500

510

520

530

EUR

/ t

onn

e

Matif Rapeseed 20 Day Mov Avg. 50 Day Mov Avg.

March 2013 31

Source: Bloomberg

Liffe Cocoa Liffe Coffee CME Live Cattle

CME Feeder Cattle CME Lean Hogs ICE NY Frozen Concnetrated Orange Juice

Softs & Livestock Spot Continuous Prices

ICE NY Sugar ICE NY Coffee ICE NY Cocoa

Liffe Sugar BM&F Arabica Coffee ICE NY Cotton

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

US

¢ /

lb

ICE NY No. 11 Sugar 20 Day Mov Avg. 50 Day mov Avg.

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

US

¢ /

lb

ICE NY Coffee 20 Day Mov Avg. 50 Day Mov Avg.

2,000

2,100

2,200

2,300

2,400

2,500

2,600

2,700

2,800

US

D/

ton

ne

ICE NY Cocoa 20 Day Mov Avg. 50 Day Mov Avg.

1,350

1,400

1,450

1,500

1,550

1,600

1,650

1,700

1,750

GB

P/

ton

ne

Liffe Cocoa 20 Day Mov Avg. 50 Day Mov Avg.

1,800

1,850

1,900

1,950

2,000

2,050

2,100

2,150

2,200

2,250

US

D/

ton

ne

Liffe Robusta Coffee 20 Day Mov Avg. 50 Day Mov Avg.

115

117

119

121

123

125

127

129

131

133

US

¢/l

b

CME Live Cattle 20 Day Mov Avg. 50 Day Mov Avg.

135

140

145

150

155

160

US

¢/l

b

CME Feeder Cattle 20 Day Mov Avg. 50 Day Mov Avg.

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

US

¢/l

b

CME Lean Hogs 20 Day Mov Avg. 50 Day Mov Avg.

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

145

US

¢ /

lb

ICE FCOJ 20 Day Mov Avg. 50 Day Mov Avg.

475

495

515

535

555

575

595

615

635

US

D/t

onn

e

Liffe No. 5 Sugar 20 Day Mov Avg. 50 Day Mov Avg.

68

70

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

US

¢ /

lb

ICE NY No. 2 Cotton 20 Day Mov Avg. 50 Day Mov Avg.

160

170

180

190

200

210

220

230

240U

SD

/60

kg b

ag

BM&F Arabica 20 Day Mov Avg. 50 Day Mov Avg.

March 2013 32

Food & Agribusiness Research and Advisory Agri Commodity Markets Research (ACMR): Luke Chandler―Global Head +44 20 7664 9676 [email protected] Keith Flury―Senior Commodity Analyst +44 20 7664 9676 [email protected]

Erin FitzPatrick―Senior Commodity Analyst +44 20 7664 9540 [email protected] Nick Higgins ―Commodity Analyst +44 20 7664 9543 [email protected]

Contributing Analysts: Tracey Allen―Sydney, Australia [email protected]

Paula Savanti―Buenos Aires, Argentina [email protected]

Andy Duff―São Paulo, Brazil [email protected]

Guilherme Melo―São Paulo, Brazil [email protected]

Renato Rasmussen ―São Paulo, Brazil [email protected]

Daron Hoffman—Shanghai, China [email protected]

Pawan Kumar―Singapore [email protected]

Sterling Liddell―Saint Louis, USA [email protected]

www.rabotransact.com

Global Financial Markets Corporate Risk & Treasury Management Contacts: GLOBAL HEAD―Martijn Sorber +31 30 21 69447 [email protected] ASIA―Brandon Ma +852 2103 2688 [email protected] AUSTRALIA―Terry Allom +61 2 8115 3103 [email protected] NETHERLANDS―Arjan Veerhoek +31 30 216 9040 [email protected] EUROPE―Eliana de Rossi +44 20 7664 9649 [email protected] NORTH AMERICA―David Teakle +1 212 808 6877 [email protected] SOUTH AMERICA―Mark Yale +1 212 808 6991 [email protected]

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