Committee for the Common Organisation of the Agricultural Markets 16 April 2014

Committee for the Common Organisation of the Agricultural Markets

16 April 2014

DG AGRI C3 16 April 2014

115

130

145

160

175

190

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

€/1

00 k

g

Evolution of the EU average pig carcass priceClass E & S prices from 1/1/2014

5 yr Avg (09-13) 2013 2014Class E

2014Class S


110

125

140

155

170

185

200


Pri

ce

in

€u

ro /

10

0k

g

Development of the EU average price for pig carcasses

avg 09 - 13 Forec. S Forec. E IT Forec R 2013 2014 S 2014 E

Moy.AnnuelleAvg: 2009- 2013: 156,422011: 153,2 Euro/ 100kg2012: 170,6 ,,2013: 175,5 ,, 2014: 165,9 (E)2014: 171,4 (S)

II/ 2014 S 172,27E 163,22

IV/ 2014 S 173,14E 168,03

I/ 2014 S 165,33E 152,46

III/ 2014 S 179,38E 175,13


120,00

130,00

140,00

150,00

160,00

170,00

180,00

190,00

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53

weekly pig prices (€/100 kg carcass)(from 2014 average class E+S, before 2013 class E)

EU average 2014 EU average 2009 - 13 EE LT PL LV reference threshold


35

37

39

41

43

45

47

49

51

53


€/p

iece

Evolution of the EU average piglet prices

5 yr avg (09 - 13) 2013 2014


50

150

250

350

450

Juil Oct Jan April Juil Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul

Euro

/ to

nne

Price of Basic Ingredients 2011 - 2014

Soft wheat (EU)

Barley (EU)

Maïs (EU)

Soja (CAF)

Hulls (EU)

Manioc (CAF)

C.G.F. (CAF)


135

165

195

225

|Jan 2013| Feb | Mrch | Apr | May | June | July | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |Jan 2014| Feb | Mrch | Apr | May | June |

€uro

/ To

nn

Futures for Feed wheat EU (Euronext) (Nearby = 2013 & 2014)

01 Nearby

2014 Mar

2014 Jul

2014 Nov

Delivery:


160

180

200

220

240

260

| 2013 | Feb | Mrt | Apr | May | Jun | July | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | 2014 | Feb | Mrt | Apr | May | Jun |

€/T

on

n

Futures for Maize EU (Euronext) (Nearby = 2013 - 2014)

Nearby

2014 Mar

2014 Jun

2014 Aug

Delivery:


1.100

1.200

1.300

1.400

1.500

1.600

1.700

|Jan 2013| Feb | Mch | Apr | May | Jun | July | Aug. | Sept. | Oct. | Nov. | Dec. |Jan 2014| Feb | Mch | Apr | May | Jun |

Futures for Soybeans in US$ct/ Bushel (nearby = 2013 & 2014)

01 Nearby

2014 May

2014 Jul

2014 Sep

Delivery:


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

| 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |

€uro

/ T (Cere

al & S

oja

mix

/ Com

pound feed)

Euro

/ 10

0kg (

pig

carc

ase

)

Development of producer margins (pig price over feed costs)

Margin/ Comp. Feed (4.4 > 3.9)

Carcase price

average Margin 2008 - 2012 (45,21€/100kg)

Cereals and Soja mix

Compound feed

NB:Comp. Feed 2014 = Forecast as from January.Cereal mix and Pig carcase price: 2014. = forecast as from March 2014.


55,0

75,0

95,0

115,0

135,0

155,0

175,0

195,0

| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |

Weekly average Pigprices 2009 - 2014 in Euro/ 100kg carcase

EU, Brazil and the US

EU

US

Braz. avg

CDN Ontario

EU = weighted avg of MS prices grade E <55% lean meatUS = weekly USDA prices carcase lean hogs Iowa-Minn. 167-187lbBR = avg of maximum prices in main producing states (suino.com.br)CDN= Ontario Dressed weight FOBas from dec 2010, before Index 100 (agr.gc.ca)


70

95

120

145

170

195

| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |

€uro

/ 10

0kg

Pigprices and forecasts in US and EUEU forecast: Working group priceforecast pigmeat

US Forecast: Chicago Mercantile Exchange

EU

US



EU trade of PIG products4

6.1

35

59

.72

0

71

.93

7

51

.64

1

63

.80

0

55

.91

8

56

.07

7

54

.49

9

72

.27

6

22

.61

2

21

.73

0

32

.36

8

43

.17

9

59

.83

8

51

.78

9

44

.19

1

36

.08

7

37

.11

8

33

.84

5

5.8

49

88

1.0

11

94

3.4

05

1.0

83

.23

0

1.2

38

.13

8

1.5

56

.96

1

1.5

45

.90

7

1.3

31

.80

8

1.5

26

.56

3

1.5

09

.30

2

1.7

80

.56

8

1.9

38

.45

5

2.0

89

.36

3

1.9

10

.90

8

2.5

69

.08

7

2.3

86

.24

5

2.6

27

.62

1 3.1

33

.57

0

3.0

72

.45

7

3.1

00

.88

4

43

7.8

54

0

250.000

500.000

750.000

1.000.000

1.250.000

1.500.000

1.750.000

2.000.000

2.250.000

2.500.000

2.750.000

3.000.000

3.250.000

3.500.000

3.750.000

4.000.000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Jan-Feb 14

To

nn

es

pro

du

ct

we

igh

t

.

IMPORTS EXPORTS


EU imports of selected PIG productsTrade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)

Compared

tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to J an-Feb 13

Sw itzerland 17.480 39,6% 18.723 51,9% 19.491 52,5% 17.495 51,7% 3.185 54% -4%

Serbia 859 2% 2.397 7% 2.391 6% 3.094 9% 720 12% 71%

Norw ay 1.911 4% 1.530 4% 1.986 5% 1.995 6% 420 7% 28%

Chile 11.724 27% 7.734 21% 7.467 20% 5.398 16% 416 7% -61%

Russia 450 1% 529 1% 270 1% 362 1% 319 5%

Thailand 284 1% 341 1% 219 1% 848 3% 242 4% +++

Other 11.482 26% 4.833 13% 5.293 14% 4.654 14% 547 9%

EXTRA EU 25/27 44.191 36.087 37.118 33.845 5.849

% change - 18% + 3% - 9% - 4,4%

2010 2011 2012 Jan-Feb 142013


EU imports of selected PIG productsTrade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)

3.535 3.310 3.185

348 420 720

793 846789

6.177 6.1205.849

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

7.000

Jan-Feb 12 Jan-Feb 13 Jan-Feb 14

IMPORTS of PIG Meat into EU-28(Tonnes prod. weight)

Switzerland Serbia Norway Chile Russia Other origins

2.523 3.1982.411

222266

417

2.651

2.415

2.750

10.427

11.422

9.926

0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000


IMPORTS of PIG Meat into EU-28 (1000 EUR)

Switzerland Serbia Norway Chile Russia Other origins


0

1.500

3.000

4.500

6.000

|Jan07

2007 |Jan08

2008 |Jan09

2009 |Jan10

2010 |Jan11

2011 |Jan12

2012 |Jan13

2013 |Jan14

in Tonnes (product weight)

Imports of selected PIG products

FRESH FROZEN FAT OTHERS


EU exports of selected PIG products:Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)

Compared to

tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % Jan-Feb 13

China 207.352 7,9% 393.819 12,6% 586.441 19,1% 665.495 21,5% 113.244 25,9% - 6%

Hong Kong 426.697 16,2% 539.363 17,2% 381.069 12,4% 387.126 12,5% 60.242 13,8% + 8%

Japan 223.637 8,5% 231.282 7,4% 230.792 7,5% 231.601 7,5% 46.919 10,7% + 23%

Russia 808.663 30,8% 847.498 27,0% 745.014 24,2% 747.233 24,1% 44.391 10,1% - 59%

South Korea 100.790 3,8% 193.909 6,2% 137.220 4,5% 103.055 3,3% 28.147 6,4% + 72%

Philippines 89.407 3,4% 96.880 3,1% 73.412 2,4% 101.167 3,3% 24.168 5,5% + 58%

USA 58.736 2,2% 59.548 1,9% 60.824 2,0% 60.260 1,9% 11.284 2,6% + 21%

Angola 44.399 1,7% 61.559 2,0% 59.210 1,9% 61.273 2,0% 10.557 2,4% + 20%

Ukraine 137.736 5,2% 113.962 3,6% 161.599 5,3% 122.679 4,0% 8.939 2,0%

Ivory Coast 22.153 0,8% 20.420 0,7% 26.468 0,9% 35.125 1,1% 7.901 1,8% + 21%

Australia 50.373 1,9% 44.340 1,4% 47.270 1,5% 44.509 1,4% 6.735 1,5% - 21%

Serbia 11.169 0,4% 13.096 0,4% 25.310 0,8% 32.140 1,0% 6.010 1,4% + 65%

Other 446.509 17,0% 517.894 14,5% 537.828 13,7% 509.222 14,4% 69.316 15,8%

Extra EU28 2.627.621 3.133.570 3.072.457 3.100.884 437.854

% change + 19% - 2% + 1% - 8,8%

2010 2011 2012 Jan-Feb 142013


EU exports of selected PIG productsTrade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)

71.042119.859 113.244

81.00755.607 60.242

36.86638.012 46.919

133.781 108.83344.391

153.667141.416

144.911

509.967480.120

437.854

0

100.000

200.000

300.000

400.000

500.000

600.000


Tons (pw) .

EU-28 EXPORTS of PIG Meat (Tonnes prod. weight)

China Hong Kong Japan Russia South Korea Other destinations

88.160 155.720 132.060

82.169 84.298

239.803 200.24287.219

320.644306.504

296.177

985.129927.019

828.002

0

200.000

400.000

600.000

800.000

1.000.000

1.200.000


in 1,000 EUR .

EU-28 EXPORTS of PIG Meat (1000 EUR)

China Hong Kong Japan Russia South Korea Other destinations


0

50.000

100.000

150.000

200.000

250.000

300.000

350.000

|Jan 07

2007 |Jan 08

2008 |Jan 09

2009 |Jan 10

2010 |Jan 11

2011 |Jan 12

2012 |Jan 13

2013 |Jan 14

in Tonnes (product weight)Exports of selected PIG products

FRESH FROZEN FAT LIVE ANIMALS OTHERS



Documents

Committee for the Common Organisation of the Agricultural Markets 16 April 2014