Committee for the Common Organisation of the Agricultural Market Market Situation for Sheep & Goats 22 May 2014 DG AGRI C3 22 May 2014

Committee for the Common Organisation of the Agricultural Market

Market Situation for Sheep & Goats22 May 2014

DG AGRI C3 22 May 2014


250

350

450

550

650

750

| 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |

€uro

/ 100

kg

Development of the EU average market price for Heavy and Light Lamb carcass

Light L 28 Average

EU Heavy Lamb Average


350

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1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

€u

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Heavy Lamb prices in the EU2011 - 2014

2011

2012

2013

2014


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1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

€u

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Light Lamb prices in the EU2011 - 2014

2011

2012

2013

2014


Estimates of April 2014

FORECAST QUESTIONNAIRE - SHEEP AND GOAT MEAT BALANCE

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015(f) 14/13 % 15/14 %

GIP/ PIB/ BEE

BE '000 head

BG '000 head 9.504 13.107 13.342 13.342 14.826 16.422 10.8%

CZ '000 head 2.189 2.418 2.460 2.548 2.648 2.648 3.9% 0.0%

DE '000 head 40.384 42.000 38.600 36.900 35.600 35.000 -3.5% -1.7%

IE '000 head 41.300 39.000 45.200 48.400 47.400 48.600 -2.1% 2.5%

EL '000 head 98.000 105.000 100.000 98.000 96.500 96.500 -1.5% 0.0%

ES '000 head 149.488 148.624 136.272 147.608 138.600 132.650 -6.1% -4.3%

FR '000 head 111.543 116.605 112.131 107.427 104.944 103.031 -2.3% -1.8%

HU '000 head 9.609 9.551 9.581 8.590 8.700 8.700 1.3% 0.0%

IT '000 head 32.018 30.789 30.780 20.286 21.756 23.130 7.2% 6.3%

CY '000 head

NL '000 head 16.800 16.800 16.700 16.400 16.500 16.400 0.6% -0.6%

PL '000 head 3.209 3.129 3.013 3.003 2.860 2.807 -4.8% -1.9%

PT '000 head 20.116 19.864 18.056 17.878 17.708 17.708 -1.0% 0.0%

SI '000 head

SF '000 head

UK '000 head 292.300 298.900 286.300 298.900 296.700 298.300 -0.7% 0.5%

Total 826.460 845.787 812.435 819.283 804.742 801.895

EU 2.3% -3.9% 0.8% -1.8% -0.4% -1.8% -0.4%

Off-Slaughter 776.381 789.097 759.892 759.421 745.943 743.304OSH-Slaughter 122.677 127.348 120.257

Change


Estimates of April 2014

FORECAST QUESTIONNAIRE - SHEEP AND GOAT MEAT BALANCE

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015(f) 14/13 % 15/14 %

1 Price - heavy lambs >= 13.1 kg

BE 'EUR/100 kg cwe

CZ 'EUR/100 kg cwe 350.00 350.00 360.00 370.00 380.00 380.00 2.7% 0.0%

DE 'EUR/100 kg cwe 425.34 478.38 517.14 512.04 502.00 515.00 -2.0% 2.6%

IE 'EUR/100 kg cwe 439.00 478.00 462.00 457.00 480.00 470.00 5.0% -2.1%

EL 'EUR/100 kg cwe 370.00 388.00 366.00 352.00 359.00 359.00 2.0% 0.0%

ES 'EUR/100 kg cwe 489.63 559.63 561.28 503.87 560.00 560.00 11.1% 0.0%

FR 'EUR/100 kg cwe 587.70 610.80 624.20 621.70 637.24 650.00 2.5% 2.0%

CYHU 'EUR/100 kg cwe 490.00 570.00 554.00 520.00 500.00 500.00 -3.8% 0.0%

NL 'EUR/100 kg cwe 463.00 509.00 541.00 504.00 495.00 500.00 -1.8% 1.0%

PL 'EUR/100 kg cwe 334.00 380.00 387.00 372.00 353.00 350.00 -5.1% -0.8%

SI 'EUR/100 kg cwe

SF 'EUR/100 kg cwe

UK 'EUR/100 kg cwe 452.40 501.70 499.70 488.90 495.00 498.00 1.2% 0.6%

EU Calc. HL 478.02 522.25 525.97 514.80 525.50 529.72 2.1% 0.8%

EU HL 436.03 497.84 497.96 493.29 503.55 507.58

2 Price - light lambs =< 13.0 kg BG 'EUR/100 kg cwe 544.00 550.00 600.00 570.00 530.00 570.00 -7.0% 7.5%

CZ 'EUR/100 kg cwe 480.00 480.00 480.00 480.00 490.00 490.00 2.1% 0.0%

EL 'EUR/100 kg cwe 532.00 554.00 523.00 503.00 513.00 513.00 2.0% 0.0%

ES 'EUR/100 kg cwe 644.67 690.73 690.00 625.00 675.00 675.00 8.0% 0.0%

HU 'EUR/100 kg cwe 555.00 640.00 631.00 585.00 550.00 550.00 -6.0% 0.0%

IT 'EUR/100 kg cwe 517.89 526.27 605.70 634.97 615.92 603.60 -3.0% -2.0%

PL 'EUR/100 kg cwe 420.00 451.00 462.00 477.00 400.00 400.00 -16.1% 0.0%

PT 'EUR/100 kg cwe 424.00 442.00 438.00 436.00 440.00 440.00 0.9% 0.0%

SI 'EUR/100 kg cwe

EU Calc. LL 567.82 597.08 597.52 566.67 586.40 586.34 3.5% 0.0%

EU LL 584.30 590.52 599.88 587.53 607.98 607.92

Change


400.00

500.00

600.00

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015(f)

Price forecast for Heavy and Light Lambbased on the communicated data

EU Calc. HL EU HL EU Calc. LL EU LL


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| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |

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kg

Community average and international market prices for Heavy Lamb carcases

EU Heavy Lamb Average N. Zealand (avg N&S island)

Uruguay AUS


1

1.25

1.5

1.75

2

2.25

2.5

I 2004 I 2005 I 2006 I 2007 I 2008 I 2009 I 2010 I 2011 I 2012 I 2013 I 2014 I

1 E

uro

= ...

..…N

w.

Zeal

and

$

Exchange rate NZ$ & AUS$ - Euroquotation: 1st day of the month

NZ$

AUS$

http://ec.europa.eu/budget/inforeuro/index.cfm


7.24

6

7.16

4

7.03

8

6.71

9

6.22

2

5.94

9

5.87

0

5.60

2

5.55

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5.71

0

6.62

2

6.70

8

5.59

7

5.46

9 5.76

2

5.54

0

5.38

3

5.23

4 5.48

6 5.76

7

5.78

1

5.81

0

6.64

6 7.01

3

6.26

0

6.34

0

6.33

9

4.95

4

4.61

8

4.54

6

4.40

3

4.13

9

4.11

8 4.42

6

4.13

6

3.98

8

3.74

7

3.96

1

4.14

2

4.28

1

4.09

0

3.89

0

3.84

9

3.67

4

3.56

3 3.90

5

3.94

5

3.82

5

3.58

1 3.99

8

3.75

5 4.06

0 4.40

5

4.08

7

5.89

7

6.05

4

5.75

5

5.30

3

4.91

1

4.70

8

4.57

8

4.44

6

4.39

6

4.46

4

4.42

7

4.24

7

4.31

6

4.22

6

4.30

3

4.12

6

4.20

9

4.32

9

4.28

8

4.52

9

4.72

0

4.73

4

4.84

0

4.86

5 5.25

3

5.25

7

5.32

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Feb-

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Apr

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Jul-1

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Nov

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Jan-

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Apr

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Jan-

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Feb-

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€by

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In to

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SHEEP & GOAT PRODUCTS IMPORTED FROM NEW ZEALANDFresh or chilled sheep legs, Frozen sheep legs

& Frozen lamb carcasses and half-carcasses(EU_28 - Total Trade)

Fresh or chilled sheep legs Frozen sheep legs

Frozen lamb carcasses and half-carcasses Fresh or chilled sheep legs

Frozen lamb carcasses and half-carcasses Frozen sheep legs


EU import of sheep & goat meat and live animals

Trade figures (Comext)2010 2011 Compared

tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to Jan-Mar 13

New Zealand 211 450 82.7% 192 989 82.2% 170 113 84.7% 178 696 84.4% 47 224 84.2% - 11.9%

Australia 22 046 8.6% 21 098 9.0% 17 632 8.8% 19 645 9.3% 5 962 10.6% + 19.4%

Uruguay 4 533 1.8% 4 975 2.1% 3 505 1.7% 3 265 1.5% 1 175 2.1% + 73.5%

For.JRep.Mac 2 663 1.0% 3 055 1.3% 2 527 1.3% 2 666 1.3% 585 1.0% - 56.5%

Chile 5 856 2.3% 5 317 2.3% 3 225 1.6% 3 984 1.9% 396 0.7% - 30.4%

Argentina 5 982 2.3% 4 301 1.8% 1 943 1.0% 1 115 0.5% 326 0.6% + 19.8%

Falkland Is. 532 0.2% 607 0.3% 616 0.3% 740 0.3% 213 0.4% + 116.8%

Iceland 2 382 0.9% 2 073 0.9% 1 102 0.5% 1 441 0.7% 158 0.3% + 135.5%

Other Origins 2 637 1.0% 2 356 1.0% 1 380 0.7% 1 603 0.8% 173 0.3% + 59.1%

EXTRA EU 255 697 234 697 200 940 211 714 56 053

% change - 8% - 14% + 5% - 9.0%

2012 Jan-Mar 142013


EU imports of sheep & goatmeat and live animalsTrade figures (COMEXT)

48 91653 594

47 224

3 025

4 994

5 962

54 862

61 626

56 053

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

Jan-Mar 12 Jan-Mar 13 Jan-Mar 14

InTonnes

cwe

EU IMPORTS of Sheet & Goat (Tonnes cwe %)

New Zealand Australia Uruguay For.JRep.Mac Chile Other origins

280 242245 129 230 042

17 719

19 05827 315

312 421

276 391 268 464

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000


in 1000EUR

EU IMPORTS of Sheet & Goat (1000 EUR %)

New Zealand Australia Uruguay For.JRep.Mac Chile Other origins


0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

45 000

50 000

|Jan06

2006 |Jan07

2007 |Jan08

2008 |Jan09

2009 |Jan10

2010 |Jan11

2011 |Jan12

2012 |Jan13

2013 |Jan14

in Tonnes cwe

EU-28 Imports of Sheep and Goat products

FRESH FROZEN OTHERS


EU exports of sheep & goat meat and live animals:Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes cwe)

2010 2011 Compared

tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to Jan-Mar 13

Libya 674 2.7% 1 707 4.2% 13 628 24.5% 23 389 31.4% 7 588 39.7% + 52.5%

Hong Kong 1 350 5.3% 4 404 10.9% 14 014 25.2% 23 125 31.1% 6 056 31.7% + 31.2%

Switzerland 2 213 8.8% 2 661 6.6% 2 846 5.1% 3 239 4.4% 722 3.8% - 41.3%

Jordan 4 408 17.5% 5 235 12.9% 5 836 10.5% 7 032 9.4% 691 3.6% + 62.1%

Ghana 2 530 10.0% 1 813 4.5% 2 271 4.1% 3 139 4.2% 522 2.7% - 27.4%

Lebanon 2 418 9.6% 2 774 6.8% 2 336 4.2% 2 403 3.2% 471 2.5% - 46.9%

Thailand 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 399 0.5% 381 2.0% +++

Algeria 102 0.4% 0 0.0% 276 0.5% 1 355 1.8% 371 1.9% +++

Ivory Coast 414 1.6% 392 1.0% 565 1.0% 1 117 1.5% 254 1.3% + 82.3%

Norway 209 0.8% 716 1.8% 1 978 3.6% 2 509 3.4% 239 1.3% + 50.9%

Tunisia 141 0.6% 60 0.1% 1 512 2.7% 893 1.2% 224 1.2% +++

U.A.Emirates 21 0.1% 14 0.0% 338 0.6% 310 0.4% 135 0.7% + 83.8%

Guinea 0 0.0% 17 0.0% 12 0.0% 425 0.6% 104 0.5% +++

Afghanistan 327 1.3% 524 1.3% 497 0.9% 239 0.3% 87 0.5% + 6.5%

Other Destinations 10 439 41.3% 20 262 49.9% 9 454 17.0% 4 892 6.6% 1 272 6.7% + 29.3%

EXTRA EU 25 247 40 579 55 563 74 467 19 116

% change + 61% + 37% + 34% + 31.3%

2012 Jan-Mar 142013


EU exports of sheep & goatmeat and live animalsTrade figures (COMEXT )

1 017

4 9741 908

4 615

6 056

3 138

3 110

4 022

7 846

14 564

19 116

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000


Tonn

es c

w

EU EXPORTS of Sheep & Goat (Tonnes cwe)

Libya Hong Kong Switzerland Jordan Turkey Other destinations

5 713

25 954

41 1338 670

9 041

12 143

29 268

53 910

73 368

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

80 000


1,00

0 E

UR

EU EXPORTS of Sheep & Goat (1000 EUR)

Libya Hong Kong Switzerland Jordan Turkey Other destinations


0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

9 000

10 000

|Jan06

2006 |Jan07

2007 |Jan08

2008 |Jan09

2009 |Jan10

2010 |Jan11

2011 |Jan12

2012 |Jan13

2013 |Jan14

in Tonnes cwe

EU-28 Exports of Sheep and Goat products

LA FRESH FROZEN OTHERS


0

40 000

80 000

120 000

160 000

200 000

240 000

| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014

Export of live sheep, in headsexcluding pure-bred breeding

A = LIVE LAMBS "SHEEP UP TO A YEAR OLD"

B = LIVE SHEEP excl. A

2010 = 652 933 heads2011 = 1 467 049heads2012 = 1 625 062heads2013 = 1 861 431heads


EU Sheep and Goat Meat Trade Balance, tonnes cwe

271

034

282

624

280

884

279

774

281

728

292

804

298

057

296

239

307

025

289

855

297

381

302

577

284

927

284

778

288

621

255

697

234

697

200

940

211

714

56 0

53

6 98

3

7 99

3

4 19

8

4 23

2

4 79

4

5 61

0

6 20

7

6 75

3

6 55

0

6 68

3

7 12

7

6 09

7

10 8

24

9 95

1

14 0

32

25 2

47 40 5

79 55 5

63 74 4

67

19 1

16

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Jan-Mar14

IMPORTS EXPORTS


Annual quota

Balance (remaining

amount)

Actual import

Quota use %

1/1/2013 - 19/3/2013

Argentina 09.2011 23 000 22 444 556 2% 206Australia 09.2012 19 186 10 793 8 393 44% 3 785New Zealand 09.2013 228 254 156 976 71 278 31% 37 290Uruguay 09.2014 5 800 4 270 1 530 26% 534Chile 09.1922 7 200 6 176 1 024 14% 394Norway 09.0781 300 300 0 0% 0Greenland 09.0693 100 100 0 0% 0Faeroes 09.0690 20 20 0 1% 0Turkey 09.0227 200 200 0 0% 0Others 09.2015 200 188 12 6% 0Erga Omnes 09.2016 200 14 186 93% 200

Iceland 09.0790 1 850 1 718 132 7% 4

0104 10 300104 10 80 92 92 0 0% 00104 20 90

286 402 203 290 83 112 29% 42 412

UTILISATION OF SHEEPMEAT AND GOATMEAT TARIFF QUOTAS IN 2014EU-28 : January > December 2014

Reg. 1354/2011

COUNTRY GROUP No

CN CODES ORIGINORDER

NUMBER

Period: 01/01/2014 - 16/5/2014 Unit: tonnes cwe

09.2019

TOTAL

1 0204

2

0204 0210 99 210210 99 290210 99 60

3 Erga Omnes


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1.400

| 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |

Un

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Import price of certain New Zealand Lamb products into the EU compared to the NZ and EU heavy carcase price

the graph concerns 84% of the total fresh and frozen lamb imports from NZ (by weight)and 78% of the total Sheep & Goat imports from NZ

02042300Boneless (Fresh)

Max import Priceof main NZ lambproducts (fresh &frozen)

Min import Priceof main NZ lambproducts (fresh &frozen)

AVG EU Heavylamb carcase price

AVG NZ carcaseprice


New

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2013 (up to March) 2014 (up to March)

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Main Exporters of SHEEP&GOAT Products (up to March)


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Canada

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Mala

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Japan

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2013 (up to March) 2014 (up to March)

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Main Importers of SHEEP&Goat Products (up to March)

Documents

Committee for the Common Organisation of the Agricultural Market Market Situation for Sheep & Goats 22 May 2014 DG AGRI C3 22 May 2014