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C O M M E R C I A L W O R K S H O P
S E T T L E M E N T G A S & B I L L I N G 2 8 . 0 7 . 2 0 2 0
Agenda
1
Summary of the first months of application of the new Settlement Gas regulation
"As is" of provisions relating to the Definitive Balances - Future developments
SETTLEMENT GAS – BALANCING SESSIONS
2 BILLING PROCESS
Focus on 2015-2018 Multi-year Adjustment Session and 2018 Annual Session
Update on extraordinary balance adjustments - January / April 2020
Way forward on billing for city-gate variances
3 SETTLEMENT GAS – PERFORMANCES
Focus on the supply of the quantity of gas needed to operate the system ()
Agenda
1
Summary of the first months of application of the new Settlement Gas regulation
"As is" of provisions relating to the Definitive Balances - Future developments
SETTLEMENT GAS – BALANCING SESSIONS
2 BILLING PROCESS
Focus on 2015-2018 Multi-year Adjustment Session and 2018 Annual Session
Update on extraordinary balance adjustments - January / April 2020
Way forward on billing for city-gate variances
3 SETTLEMENT GAS – PERFORMANCES
Focus on the supply of the quantity of gas needed to operate the system ()
4
Resolution 9/2020/R/gas21st January 2020
• The application of provisions referred to Article 6.1bis, comma e) of
Resolution 249/2012/R/gas is suspended until March 1st, 2020
• The application of the regulation determines, in the cases provided for,
the termination of the distribution contract and consequently the
activation of the services of last resort from April 1st, 2020
• The SDDT activated for UdDs due to the absence of valid relationships
will be delivered up to the end of the month of March 2020
Resolution 88/2020/R/gas24th March 2020
• If the udd has not identified the udb at the pdr
within the deadline, after 6 months of service
delivery, the SII will activate the services of last
resort.
• residual balancing user: it is the udb having capacity
on the REMI to which the pdr withdrawals in the
ownership of an udd are attributed in the absence
of a valid relationship
• The daily price referred to in Article 6, paragraph
6.2 of the resolution 249/2012/R/gas applied to udd
in case of SDDT, is increased by 10% from the first
day of the third month of service delivery. In case
of activation of SDDT during the month, the increase
is applied from the first day of the third month
following the activation date of the default service.
Resolution 155/2019/R/gas16th April 2019
• Functional provisions for the update of relationships between the UdB
and the UdD at redelivery points of DSO’s network
Regulatory framework – Commercial relationships
5
Resolution 538/2019/R/gas17th December 2019
• Approval of SRG network code update proposals
• Overrun capacity penalties: application of an algorithm until 31st
May 2020
• Extraordinary booking process reserved for city gates at the
end of May
• Overrun capacity penalties on city gates frozen until the end of
May
Resolution 181/2020/R/gas26th May 2020
• January 2020 extraordinary balance adjustment managed by
TSOs
• Definition of criteria in order to identify abnormal withdrawals
• Definition of timeline for the extraordinary rework of
Definitive Balances from February to April 2020
• Postponement of the extraordinary booking process
Resolutions 72/2018/R/gas and 148/2019/R/gas8th February 2018 and 16th April 2019
• Reform of the regulation on settlement gas for Provisional and
Definitive Balances and Adjustment Sessions
• Institution of Wkr
• Bottom-up process without volume reconciliations
• Institution of 𝐶𝑅𝐸𝑀𝐼,𝑈𝑑𝐵,k – P𝑅𝐸𝑀𝐼,𝑈𝑑𝐵,k – Δk – ΔIO𝑈𝑑𝐵,m
Regulatory framework – Settlement Gas
Resolution 222/2020/R/gas16th June 2020
• Substitution of art. 28
• The non-transmission of adjustments by DSOs means
confirmation of the withdrawal initially calculated for the PdR
• Within 15th of M+1, 1st SBG publication
• 6 WD for transmission of adjustments by DSOs
• Within 28th of M+1, 2nd SBG publication
• 1st Publication of SRG Definitive Balance (within 28 of M+1)
uses 1st SBG publication
January 2020 – Definitive Balance Timeline
1st SBG publication
14th February 2020
2nd SBG publication
21st February 2020
1st Publication of
SRG Definitive
Balance
28th February 2020
2nd Publication of
SRG Definitive
Balance
5th March 2020
3rd SBG publication
13th March 2020
3rd Publication of
SRG Definitive
Balance
23rd March 2020
4th Publication of
SRG Definitive
Balance
24th March 2020
4th SBG publication
6th May 2020
5th SBG publication
12th May 2020
Resolution
181/2020/R/gas
26th May 2020
Detail of excluded
pdr from AU
18th June 2020
Resolution
181/2020/R/gas
Procedure
End 30th June 2020
5th Publication of
SRG Definitive
Balance
10th July 2020
6
January 2020 – IN/OUT Comparison
7
145
150
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
210
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
MSm
3
IN OUT PUBB2 OUT PUBB3 OUT PUBB4 OUT PUBB5 OUT Del 181 Procedure
REMI with Δ >20% or <-20%
Publication 3: 658
Publication 4: 196
Publication 5: 202
Del 181 Procedure: 194
IN 5.464.388.563 Sm3OUT (Term C) SBG Publication 2 5.414.856.353 Sm3OUT (Term C) SBG Publication 3 5.286.509.131 Sm3OUT (Term C) SBG Publication 4 5.493.435.781 Sm3OUT (Term C) SBG Publication 5 5.455.346.665 Sm3OUT (Term C) Del 181 Procedure 5.470.212.175 Sm3
8
REMI con gamma >20% o <-20%Pubblicazione 2: 516
January 2020 – Deltak Comparison
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
MSm
3
DELTA K Auction DELTA K PUBB3 DELTA K PUBB4 DELTA K PUBB5 DELTA K Del 181 Procedure
9
SBG Publication 524th March 2020
77 UdBs with at least 1 overrun of capacity
12.491 booked capacities in overrun
1.169 with only 1 abnormal withdrawals
2,67M€ of simulated capacity overrun charges on Citygates
0,27M€ with only 1 abnormal withdrawals
SBG Publication 422nd March 2020
77 UdBs with at least 1 overrun of capacity
12.561 booked capacities in overrun
1.210 with only 1 abnormal withdrawals
18,3M€ of simulated capacity overrun charges on Citygates
15M€ with only 1 abnormal withdrawals
SBG Publication 35th March 2020
77 UdBs with at least 1 overrun of capacity
9291 out of 84.000 booked capacities in overrun
979 with only 1 abnormal withdrawals
52,2M€ of simulated capacity overrun charges on Citygates
32,4M€ with only 1 abnormal withdrawals
January 2020 – Citygates Allocation Analisys
Publication Del 181 Procedure8th July 2020
77 UdBs with at least 1 overrun of capacity
12.524 booked capacities in overrun
1.174 with only 1 abnormal withdrawals
2,73M€ of simulated capacity overrun charges on Citygates
0,27M€ with only 1 abnormal withdrawals
February 2020 – Definitive Balance Timeline
1st SBG publication
19th March 2020
2nd SBG publication
26th March 2020
1st Publication of SRG
Definitive Balance
30th March 2020
2nd Publication of SRG
Definitive Balance
9th April 2020
Resolution
181/2020/R/gas
26th May 2020
3rd SBG publication
Within 8th October 2020
4th SBG publication
Within 21st October 2020
3rd Publication of SRG
Definitive Balance
Within 30th October 2020
10
Resolution 222/2020/R/gas16th June 2020
February 2020 – IN/OUT and Deltak Comparisons, CG Allocation Analisys
11
REMI with Δ >20% or <-20%Publication 2: 516
IN 4.014.474.452 Sm3OUT (Term C) SBG Publication 2 4.317.839.194 Sm3
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
155
160
165
170
175
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
MSm
3
IN OUT PUBB2
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
MSm
3
DELTA K Auction DELTA K PUBB2
SBG Publication 226th March 2020
74 out of 85 UdBs with at least 1 overrun of capacity
7.461 out of about 85.000 booked capacities in overrun
901 with only 1 abnormal withdrawals
6,4M€ of simulated capacity overrun charges on Citygates
5,4M€ with only 1 abnormal withdrawals
March 2020 – Definitive Balance Timeline
1st SBG publication
14th April 2020
2nd SBG publication
24th April 2020
1st Publication of SRG
Definitive Balance
28th April 2020
2nd Publication of SRG
Definitive Balance
7th May 2020
3rd Publication of SRG
Definitive Balance
8th May 2020
4th Publication of SRG
Definitive Balance
13th May 2020
Resolution
181/2020/R/gas
26th May 2020
3rd SBG publication
Within 6th November 2020
4th SBG publication
Within 20th November 2020
5th Publication of SRG
Definitive Balance
Within 27th November 2020
12
Resolution 222/2020/R/gas16th June 2020
March 2020 – IN/OUT and Deltak Comparisons, CG Allocation Analisys
13
REMI with Δ >20% or <-20%Publication 2: 344
IN 3.573.630.305 Sm3OUT (Term C) SBG Publication 2 3.793.722.329 Sm3
SBG Publication 224th April 2020
74 out of 86 UdBs with at least 1 overrun of capacity
5.557 out of about 86.000 booked capacities in overrun
730 with only 1 abnormal withdrawals
5,9M€ of simulated capacity overrun charges on Citygates
4,65M€ with only 1 abnormal withdrawals
707580859095
100105110115120125130135140145150155160
01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31
MSm
3
IN OUT PUBB2
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31
MSm
3
DELTA K Auction DELTA K PUBB2
April 2020 – Definitive Balance Timeline
1st SBG publication
15th May 2020
2nd SBG publication
26th May 2020
Resolution
181/2020/R/gas
26th May 2020
1st Publication of SRG
Definitive Balance
28th May 2020
1st SBG publication Used
2nd Publication of SRG
Definitive Balance
1st June 2020
2nd SBG publication Used
3rd Publication of SRG
Definitive Balance
9th June 2020
2nd SBG publication Used
DETTAGLIO_PDR_SBG_
EXC publication
15th June 2020
Related to 2nd SBG publication
Resolution
222/2020/R/gas
16th June 2020
3rd SBG publication
27th June 2020
4th SBG publication
2nd July 2020
DETTAGLIO_PDR_SBG_
EXC publication
3rd July 2020
Related to 4th SBG publication
4th Publication of SRG
Definitive Balance
?
14
April 2020 – IN/OUT and Deltak Comparisons, CG Allocation Analisys
15
SBG Publication 115th May 2020
2.088 out of about 90.000 booked capacities in overrun
463 with only 1 abnormal withdrawals
1,185M€ of simulated capacity overrun charges on Citygates
0,197M€ with only 1 abnormal withdrawals
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
105
115
125
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
MSm
3
IN OUT Pubb 1 OUT Pubb 2 OUT Pubb 3 OUT Pubb 4
IN 1.729.756.256 Sm3OUT (Term C) SBG Pubb 1 1.585.780.656 Sm3OUT (Term C) SBG Pubb 2 1.603.096.120 Sm3OUT (Term C) SBG Pubb 3 1.638.540.261 Sm3OUT (Term C) SBG Pubb 4 1.629.684.322 Sm3
-15
-10
-5
-
5
10
15
20
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
MSm
3
Δk Auction ΔK Pubb1 ΔK Pubb2 ΔK Pubb3 ΔK Pubb4
REMI with Δ >20% or <-20%SBG Pubb 1: 1065 SBG Pubb 2: 1013 SBG Pubb 3: 1012 SBG Pubb 4: 1013
SBG Publication 327th June 2020
2.179 booked capacities in overrun
520 with only 1 abnormal withdrawals
30,98M€ of simulated capacity overrun charges on Citygates
28,75M€ with only 1 abnormal withdrawals
SBG Publication 42nd July 2020
2.162 booked capacities in overrun
508 with only 1 abnormal withdrawals
29,9M€ of simulated capacity overrun charges on Citygates
28,47M€ with only 1 abnormal withdrawals
SBG Publication 226th May 2020
2.115 booked capacities in overrun
476 with only 1 abnormal withdrawals
1,166M€ of simulated capacity overrun charges on Citygates
0,813M€ with only 1 abnormal withdrawals
May 2020 – Definitive Balance Timeline
1st SBG publication
16th June 2020
DETTAGLIO_PDR_SBG_E
XC publication
16th June 2020
Related to 1st SBG publication
Resolution
222/2020/R/gas
16th June 2020
1st Publication of SRG
Definitive Balance
26th June 2020
1st SBG publication Used
2nd SBG publication
27th June 2020
DETTAGLIO_PDR_SBG_E
XC publication
27th June 2020
Related to 2nd SBG publication
2nd Publication of SRG
Definitive Balance
14th July 2020
16
20
25
30
35
40
45
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
MSm
3
IN OUT Pubb 1 OUT Pubb 2
-
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
MSm
3
Delta k Auction Delta K Pubb1 Delta K Pubb2
May 2020 – IN/OUT and Deltak Comparisons, CG Allocation Analisys
17
SBG Publication 116th June 2020
366 out of about 93.000 booked capacities in overrun
102 with only 1 abnormal withdrawals
0,716M€ of simulated capacity overrun charges on Citygates
0,154M€ with only 1 abnormal withdrawals
IN 1.066.134.341 Sm3OUT (Term C) SBG Pubb 1 0.935.625.061 Sm3OUT (Term C) SBG Pubb 2 0.946.671.350 Sm3
REMI with Δ >20% or <-20%SBG Pubb 1: 1190 SBG Pubb 2: 516
SBG Publication 227th June 2020
432 booked capacities in overrun
133 with only 1 abnormal withdrawals
3,645M€ of simulated capacity overrun charges on Citygates
2,935M€ with only 1 abnormal withdrawals
Possible future evolutions – How to solve April, May and future anomalies?
Transmission of
SBG without
abnormal
withdrawals
AU TSO
Transmission of
distribution pdr list
and daily amounts
in case of
abnormal
withdrawals
AU TSO, DSO, UdD,
UdB
Verification and
sending of daily
amounts
(confirmation or
correction) *
DSO TSO, UdD, UdB
Aggregation of
information and
calculation of
allocations
TSO UdB
Publication of gas
transportation
balance
RdB UdB
18
Resolution 181/2020/R/gas, comma 1, Procedure
January 2020
* Non-transmission of data involved the automatic confirmation of the EXCLUSION of the pdr from the calculation of the withdrawal from the
transportation balance
Possible future evolutions – How to solve April, May and future anomalies?
19
Critical Issues
* After Resolution 222/2020/R/gas, non-transmission of data involved the automatic confirmation of the INCLUSION of the pdr from the
calculation of the withdrawal from the transportation balance
Non-uniformity of SBG Information (1st Aggregation without abnormal withdrawals; 2nd Aggregation with abnormal withdrawals)
Certainty in defining whether distribution's PdR, whose withdrawals have not positively passed the consistency check, must be considered in the
calculation of the Transportation Balance *
Information set of distribution PdRs whose withdrawals have not positively passed the consistency check
Consistency of information
Time-critical situation
DSO declaration with new data according to a pre-established format
Explicit DSO commitment to correct the data at SII within deadlines useful for the adjustment session
Agenda
1
Summary of the first months of application of the new Settlement Gas regulation
"As is" of provisions relating to the Definitive Balances - Future developments
SETTLEMENT GAS – BALANCING SESSIONS
2 BILLING PROCESS
Focus on 2015-2018 Multi-year Adjustment Session and 2018 Annual Session
Update on extraordinary balance adjustments - January / April 2020
Way forward on billing for city-gate variances
3 SETTLEMENT GAS – PERFORMANCES
Focus on the supply of the quantity of gas needed to operate the system ()
21
Publication of
definitive physical and
economic data
EPSuk/MEPSuk
Update
SRG issues the
credit/debit documents
and gives Shippers
useful information for
their invoices
August 2020 - 2° half
(provisional)
Beginning of September 2020 (+10
WD) (provisional)
• Credit for SRG: PDet increased by the total net amount of the Δ Dsk and Δ IO
• Debit for SRG: PDet will be decreased by a quota of the total net amount of the Δ Dsk and Δ IO
• The above quota is determined from time to time according to the SRG coverage (ARERA-CSEA)
Focus on Multi-year adjustments - Invoicing timeline multiannual session 2015-2018
September 2020– 2° half
(provisional)
12 June publication
of provisional
physical & economic
data
22
Focus on Multi-year adjustments
• «Reverse Charge» regime for passive subjects resellers
• 10% ordinary VAT for all other subjects that do not fall under the previous point
• Invoice payment within 15 days
• «Reverse Charge» regime
• Invoice payment within 30 days (subject to resource availability ARERA-CSEA)
• The adjustment of the Δ I/O fees will take place with the issuance by SRG of the relative document
(credit/debit)
• Invoice payment within 15 days by Shippers
• Payment of credit document by SRG to Shippers subject to resource availability ARERA-CSEA)
Invoices issued by SRG
Invoices issued by the Shippers
Documents issued by SRG
DSk
Δ I/O
Focus on Annual adjustments - invoicing timeline annual session 2018
20 December 2019
SRG issues the credit/debit
documents’
20 December 2019
SRG gives Shippers useful
information for their invoices
29 June 2020
The SRG payment took place
3
by the end of may 2020
Deliberation n.156/2020/R/gas
CSEA gave the funds to SRG to cover
the DSK and D/IO for the 2018
adjustment session
Update on extraordinary balance adjustments January / April 2020
Publication of
the physical and
economic results
of extraordinary
balance
adjustments
EPSuk/MEPSuk
Update
SRG issues the
credit/debit
documents and gives
Shippers useful
information for their
invoices
• Jan-2020: 10th Jul 11th Jul by end of August (provisional)
• Feb-2020: end of Oct-2020 end of Oct-2020 by end of November (provisional)
• Mar-2020: end of Nov-2020 end of Nov-2020 by end of December (provisional)
• Apr-2020: Date T.B.D.
Way forward on billing for city-gate variances
Regulatory background
November 2020 (PROVISIONAL): SRG will communicate methods and timing useful to allow Shippers to
increase the capacity they have at the city gates with effect from 1 October 2019
December 2020 (PROVISIONAL): the extraordinary process of capacity increase will be activated
Easier than usual [booking request and confirmation by SRG without
subscription]
Actions
Resolution 538/2019/R/Gas
Extraordinary booking process reserved for city gates
Resolution 181/2020/R/Gas
Provide that the new timelines referred to the extraordinary booking process will be communicated by
SRG, taking into account solid database to carry out assessments on the capacity increases (considering
at least 3 definitive monthly energetic balances)
Agenda
1
Summary of the first months of application of the new Settlement Gas regulation
"As is" of provisions relating to the Definitive Balances - Future developments
SETTLEMENT GAS – BALANCING SESSIONS
2 BILLING PROCESS
Focus on 2015-2018 Multi-year Adjustment Session and 2018 Annual Session
Update on extraordinary balance adjustments - January / April 2020
Way forward on billing for city-gate variances
3 SETTLEMENT GAS – PERFORMANCES
Focus on the supply of the quantity of gas needed to operate the system ()
Modeling – Input Data
27
Wheater Data
• Cities
• Cells
Temporal information
• Month
• Dayof the week and of the
month
• National holidays
Geographical data
• Latitude and longitude
coordinates
• Region and province
• Climate Zone and Climate
Area
Measured Data
• Measurement report
• Wkr forecasts
• Telemetered data
• Consumption profiles
Free parameters for the modeling of categorical variables
Modeling – Input Data – Telemetered geographic coverage
28
Features Cells Model
Percentage of cells covered by remote reading
Percentage of ReMi Not Telemetered ≈ 3%
• Training set: from Thermal Year 2013-2014 to Thermal Year 2017-2018.
• Model selection: cross-validation based on K-folds cross-validation (K=5 Thermal Years) in order to
obtain a solid estimator of performances.
• Test set: the model chosen was tested for forecasts of ΔSett of Thermal Year 2018-2019 in order to
evaluete the final performance.
• The chosen model uses an arithmetic mean (ensable) of forecasts of everyone of 5 models
Modeling – Training and Test Set
29
Δk evaluation – forecast
Targets • Overview on Δk evaluation progress
• Observations between Forecast Model (FM) and Snam Rete Gas Forecast activities (SRGF)
• Identify critical issues between the two evaluation methods
Dataset
Reference period: 01/01/2020-31/05/2020 (152 days)
• IN (quantity of gas putted in the network)
• OUT (quantity of gas withdrawn from the network)
• Δk
N.B. Each set of data includes final, FM and SGRF values
30
Δk evaluation – forecast
Step analysis
1. Observations and comparision of IN and OUT data
2. Observations and comparision of Δk data
Statistical Tools used in the analysis
a) Time Plots: time series diagram
b) Scatter plots and correlation coefficients
c) MAPE – Mean Absolute Percentage Error: ratio between the differece of evaluated and final value with
final value
31
1.a) IN and OUT (1)
32
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
01/01/2020 01/02/2020 01/03/2020 01/04/2020 01/05/2020
IN [MSmc] IN Time Plot
IN SRGF IN Final IN FM Mean IN Final
Slight under\over evaluation in FM e SRGF
IN decrease
1.a) IN and OUT (2)
33
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
01/01/2020 01/02/2020 01/03/2020 01/04/2020 01/05/2020
OUT [MSmc] OUT Time Plot
OUT SRGF OUT Final OUT FM Mean OUT final
OUT decrease
Slight under\over evaluation in FM e SRGF
1.b) IN and OUT (1)
34
Correlations IN January February March April May Ref. periodFM VS Final 0,890 0,926 0,947 0,947 0,720 0,992SRGF VS Final 0,965 0,925 0,968 0,990 0,948 0,996
Correlations OUT January February March April May Ref. PeriodFM VS Final 0,965 0,966 0,951 0,987 0,946 0,998SRGF VS Final 0,970 0,978 0,952 0,996 0,967 0,998
0,400
0,600
0,800
1,000
January February March April May Ref.Period
IN Correlation
SRGF VS Final FM VS Final
0,400
0,600
0,800
1,000
January February March April May Ref.Period
OUT Correlation
SRGF VS Final FM VS Final
• Excellent correlation in all cases
• FM correlation in May is slightly lower than the SGRF one
1.b) IN and OUT (2)
35
0
50
100
150
200
250
0 50 100 150 200 250
IN Scatter Plot - SRGF Vs Final [MSmc]
0
50
100
150
200
250
0 50 100 150 200 250
IN Scatter Plot - FM Vs Final [MSmc]
0
50
100
150
200
250
0,0 50,0 100,0 150,0 200,0 250,0
OUT Scatter Plot - SRGF Vs Final [MSmc]
0
50
100
150
200
250
0 50 100 150 200 250
OUT Scatter Plot - FM Vs Final [MSmc]
High level on density correlation. Data are
perfectly matched with final values.
1.c) IN and OUT
36
MAPE IN January February March April May Ref. PeriodFM VS Final 4,82% 4,63% 5,19% 8,61% 7,99% 6,25%SRGF VS Final 2,36% 3,51% 3,95% 6,44% 5,62% 4,38%
MAPE OUT January February March April May Ref. PeriodFM VS Final 2,48% 2,24% 3,56% 5,57% 5,41% 3,86%SRGF VS Final 1,91% 1,53% 3,91% 6,52% 6,73% 4,14%
0%
5%
10%
15%
January February March April May Ref.Period
IN MAPE
SRGF VS Final FM VS Final
0%
5%
10%
15%
January February March April May Ref. Period
OUT MAPE
SRGF VS Final FM VS Final
• MAPE level under 10% in all cases
• FM MAPE is greater than the SGRF one in April and May
2.a) Δk
37
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
01/01/2020 01/02/2020 01/03/2020 01/04/2020 01/05/2020
Δk [MSmc] Δk Time Plot
DeltaK Final DeltaK FM DeltaK SRGF
High instability in Δk evaluation
Large amount of under\over evaluation in winter period
Abnormal case at the end of March. Possible influence of
temperature variation
Stationary trend when temperature variation
drops
2.b) Δk
38
Correlations January February March April May Ref. PeriodFM VS Final 0,773 0,773 0,783 0,950 0,846 0,906SRGF VS Final 0,816 0,734 0,801 0,906 0,497 0,840
0,000
0,200
0,400
0,600
0,800
1,000
January February March April May Ref. Period
ΔK Correlation
SRGF VS Final FM VS Final
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20
Δk Scatter Plot - SRG Vs Final [MSmc]
• High level of correlation in all cases
• Low level of correlation in May for FM
• Data are perfectly matched with final values in both cases
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30
Δk Scatter Plot - FM Vs Final [MSmc]
2.c) Δk (1)
39
MAPE January February March April May Ref. Period
FM VS Final 42,81% 26,36% 26,66% 29,10% 12,27% 27,45%
SRGF VS Final 16,10% 17,95% 22,55% 11,23% 3,86% 14,31%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
January February March April May Ref. Period
ΔK MAPE
SRGF VS Final FM VS Final
• High MAPE level in all FM cases
• SRGF made low evaluation errors: Δk is more accurate than FM’s one
• SRGF worst cases are February and March; FM worst case is January
2.c) Δk (2)
40
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
01/01/2020 01/02/2020 01/03/2020 01/04/2020 01/05/2020
Comparision between AE% - SRGF Vs FM
AE%_SRGF VS Final AE%_FM VS Final
FM Absolute Error (AE) is more relevant than the SRGF one
2.c) Δk (3)
41
Case of SRGF Δk Absolute Error (AE) in February and March
0
5.000.000
10.000.000
15.000.000
20.000.000
Average Error
High AE on Weekend
0
5.000.000
10.000.000
15.000.000
20.000.000
Average Error
High AE at the end of March
2.c) Δk (4)
42
0 °
5 °
10 °
15 °
20 °
25 °
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160Temperature [°C]IN [MSmc] IN variation due to temperature
Aver. MIN (°C) Aver. MAX (°C) IN SRGF IN Final
0 °
5 °
10 °
15 °
20 °
25 °
0
50
100
150
200Temperature [°C]OUT [MSmc] OUT variation due to temperature
Aver. MIN (°C) Aver. MAX (°C) OUT SRGF OUT Final
0 °
5 °
10 °
15 °
20 °
25 °
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
19/03/2020 20/03/2020 21/03/2020 22/03/2020 23/03/2020 24/03/2020 25/03/2020 26/03/2020 27/03/2020 28/03/2020 29/03/2020 30/03/2020 31/03/2020
Temperature [°C]AE [MSmc] AE variation due to temperature
Aver. MIN (°C) Aver. MAX (°C) AE IN AE OUT
Performance p4
43
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
[GW
h]
p4 = OTM − Ψ + LPd − LPe
Deviation between volumes traded for the system
and the volumes effectively needed
Performance p5
44
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
[GW
h]
p5 = TTiM − OT
Ma
Volumes procured in advance for the
operation of the system
AGS Auctions - Prices
45
-300.000
-200.000
-100.000
-
100.000
200.000
5,0
7,0
9,0
11,0
13,0
15,0
01/01/2020 01/02/2020 01/03/2020 01/04/2020 01/05/2020 01/06/2020 01/07/2020
MW
h
€/M
Wh
AGS - MGP
AGS MGP - Quantity SAP (MGP+1) AGS MGP
-200.000
-150.000
-100.000
-50.000
-
50.000
100.000
150.000
3,0
5,0
7,0
9,0
11,0
13,0
15,0
17,0
01/01/2020 01/02/2020 01/03/2020 01/04/2020 01/05/2020 01/06/2020 01/07/2020
MW
h
€/M
Wh
AGS - MI
AGS MI - Quantity SAP (MI) AGS MI
Performance P4 detail
46
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
01/01/2020 01/02/2020 01/03/2020 01/04/2020 01/05/2020
𝐶 𝑃𝐸 𝐺𝑁𝐶 𝛥𝐿𝑃𝑐 𝛥𝑠𝑒𝑡𝑡 IT_OBA SN_T
p4 = OTM − Ψ + LPd − LPe
Ψ = C + PE + GNC + ΔLPC + ΔSett - IT OBA - SNT
C O M M E R C I A L W O R K S H O P
S E T T L E M E N T G A S & B I L L I N G 2 8 . 0 7 . 2 0 2 0