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COMMERCIAL WORKSHOP SETTLEMENT GAS & BILLING 28.07.2020

COMMERCIAL WORKSHOP SETTLEMENT GAS & BILLING 28.07 · COMMERCIAL WORKSHOP SETTLEMENT GAS & BILLING 28.07.2020. Agenda 1 ... • Substitution of art. 28 • The non-transmission of

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Page 1: COMMERCIAL WORKSHOP SETTLEMENT GAS & BILLING 28.07 · COMMERCIAL WORKSHOP SETTLEMENT GAS & BILLING 28.07.2020. Agenda 1 ... • Substitution of art. 28 • The non-transmission of

C O M M E R C I A L W O R K S H O P

S E T T L E M E N T G A S & B I L L I N G 2 8 . 0 7 . 2 0 2 0

Page 2: COMMERCIAL WORKSHOP SETTLEMENT GAS & BILLING 28.07 · COMMERCIAL WORKSHOP SETTLEMENT GAS & BILLING 28.07.2020. Agenda 1 ... • Substitution of art. 28 • The non-transmission of

Agenda

1

Summary of the first months of application of the new Settlement Gas regulation

"As is" of provisions relating to the Definitive Balances - Future developments

SETTLEMENT GAS – BALANCING SESSIONS

2 BILLING PROCESS

Focus on 2015-2018 Multi-year Adjustment Session and 2018 Annual Session

Update on extraordinary balance adjustments - January / April 2020

Way forward on billing for city-gate variances

3 SETTLEMENT GAS – PERFORMANCES

Focus on the supply of the quantity of gas needed to operate the system ()

Page 3: COMMERCIAL WORKSHOP SETTLEMENT GAS & BILLING 28.07 · COMMERCIAL WORKSHOP SETTLEMENT GAS & BILLING 28.07.2020. Agenda 1 ... • Substitution of art. 28 • The non-transmission of

Agenda

1

Summary of the first months of application of the new Settlement Gas regulation

"As is" of provisions relating to the Definitive Balances - Future developments

SETTLEMENT GAS – BALANCING SESSIONS

2 BILLING PROCESS

Focus on 2015-2018 Multi-year Adjustment Session and 2018 Annual Session

Update on extraordinary balance adjustments - January / April 2020

Way forward on billing for city-gate variances

3 SETTLEMENT GAS – PERFORMANCES

Focus on the supply of the quantity of gas needed to operate the system ()

Page 4: COMMERCIAL WORKSHOP SETTLEMENT GAS & BILLING 28.07 · COMMERCIAL WORKSHOP SETTLEMENT GAS & BILLING 28.07.2020. Agenda 1 ... • Substitution of art. 28 • The non-transmission of

4

Resolution 9/2020/R/gas21st January 2020

• The application of provisions referred to Article 6.1bis, comma e) of

Resolution 249/2012/R/gas is suspended until March 1st, 2020

• The application of the regulation determines, in the cases provided for,

the termination of the distribution contract and consequently the

activation of the services of last resort from April 1st, 2020

• The SDDT activated for UdDs due to the absence of valid relationships

will be delivered up to the end of the month of March 2020

Resolution 88/2020/R/gas24th March 2020

• If the udd has not identified the udb at the pdr

within the deadline, after 6 months of service

delivery, the SII will activate the services of last

resort.

• residual balancing user: it is the udb having capacity

on the REMI to which the pdr withdrawals in the

ownership of an udd are attributed in the absence

of a valid relationship

• The daily price referred to in Article 6, paragraph

6.2 of the resolution 249/2012/R/gas applied to udd

in case of SDDT, is increased by 10% from the first

day of the third month of service delivery. In case

of activation of SDDT during the month, the increase

is applied from the first day of the third month

following the activation date of the default service.

Resolution 155/2019/R/gas16th April 2019

• Functional provisions for the update of relationships between the UdB

and the UdD at redelivery points of DSO’s network

Regulatory framework – Commercial relationships

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5

Resolution 538/2019/R/gas17th December 2019

• Approval of SRG network code update proposals

• Overrun capacity penalties: application of an algorithm until 31st

May 2020

• Extraordinary booking process reserved for city gates at the

end of May

• Overrun capacity penalties on city gates frozen until the end of

May

Resolution 181/2020/R/gas26th May 2020

• January 2020 extraordinary balance adjustment managed by

TSOs

• Definition of criteria in order to identify abnormal withdrawals

• Definition of timeline for the extraordinary rework of

Definitive Balances from February to April 2020

• Postponement of the extraordinary booking process

Resolutions 72/2018/R/gas and 148/2019/R/gas8th February 2018 and 16th April 2019

• Reform of the regulation on settlement gas for Provisional and

Definitive Balances and Adjustment Sessions

• Institution of Wkr

• Bottom-up process without volume reconciliations

• Institution of 𝐶𝑅𝐸𝑀𝐼,𝑈𝑑𝐵,k – P𝑅𝐸𝑀𝐼,𝑈𝑑𝐵,k – Δk – ΔIO𝑈𝑑𝐵,m

Regulatory framework – Settlement Gas

Resolution 222/2020/R/gas16th June 2020

• Substitution of art. 28

• The non-transmission of adjustments by DSOs means

confirmation of the withdrawal initially calculated for the PdR

• Within 15th of M+1, 1st SBG publication

• 6 WD for transmission of adjustments by DSOs

• Within 28th of M+1, 2nd SBG publication

• 1st Publication of SRG Definitive Balance (within 28 of M+1)

uses 1st SBG publication

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January 2020 – Definitive Balance Timeline

1st SBG publication

14th February 2020

2nd SBG publication

21st February 2020

1st Publication of

SRG Definitive

Balance

28th February 2020

2nd Publication of

SRG Definitive

Balance

5th March 2020

3rd SBG publication

13th March 2020

3rd Publication of

SRG Definitive

Balance

23rd March 2020

4th Publication of

SRG Definitive

Balance

24th March 2020

4th SBG publication

6th May 2020

5th SBG publication

12th May 2020

Resolution

181/2020/R/gas

26th May 2020

Detail of excluded

pdr from AU

18th June 2020

Resolution

181/2020/R/gas

Procedure

End 30th June 2020

5th Publication of

SRG Definitive

Balance

10th July 2020

6

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January 2020 – IN/OUT Comparison

7

145

150

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

210

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

MSm

3

IN OUT PUBB2 OUT PUBB3 OUT PUBB4 OUT PUBB5 OUT Del 181 Procedure

REMI with Δ >20% or <-20%

Publication 3: 658

Publication 4: 196

Publication 5: 202

Del 181 Procedure: 194

IN 5.464.388.563 Sm3OUT (Term C) SBG Publication 2 5.414.856.353 Sm3OUT (Term C) SBG Publication 3 5.286.509.131 Sm3OUT (Term C) SBG Publication 4 5.493.435.781 Sm3OUT (Term C) SBG Publication 5 5.455.346.665 Sm3OUT (Term C) Del 181 Procedure 5.470.212.175 Sm3

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8

REMI con gamma >20% o <-20%Pubblicazione 2: 516

January 2020 – Deltak Comparison

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

MSm

3

DELTA K Auction DELTA K PUBB3 DELTA K PUBB4 DELTA K PUBB5 DELTA K Del 181 Procedure

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9

SBG Publication 524th March 2020

77 UdBs with at least 1 overrun of capacity

12.491 booked capacities in overrun

1.169 with only 1 abnormal withdrawals

2,67M€ of simulated capacity overrun charges on Citygates

0,27M€ with only 1 abnormal withdrawals

SBG Publication 422nd March 2020

77 UdBs with at least 1 overrun of capacity

12.561 booked capacities in overrun

1.210 with only 1 abnormal withdrawals

18,3M€ of simulated capacity overrun charges on Citygates

15M€ with only 1 abnormal withdrawals

SBG Publication 35th March 2020

77 UdBs with at least 1 overrun of capacity

9291 out of 84.000 booked capacities in overrun

979 with only 1 abnormal withdrawals

52,2M€ of simulated capacity overrun charges on Citygates

32,4M€ with only 1 abnormal withdrawals

January 2020 – Citygates Allocation Analisys

Publication Del 181 Procedure8th July 2020

77 UdBs with at least 1 overrun of capacity

12.524 booked capacities in overrun

1.174 with only 1 abnormal withdrawals

2,73M€ of simulated capacity overrun charges on Citygates

0,27M€ with only 1 abnormal withdrawals

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February 2020 – Definitive Balance Timeline

1st SBG publication

19th March 2020

2nd SBG publication

26th March 2020

1st Publication of SRG

Definitive Balance

30th March 2020

2nd Publication of SRG

Definitive Balance

9th April 2020

Resolution

181/2020/R/gas

26th May 2020

3rd SBG publication

Within 8th October 2020

4th SBG publication

Within 21st October 2020

3rd Publication of SRG

Definitive Balance

Within 30th October 2020

10

Resolution 222/2020/R/gas16th June 2020

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February 2020 – IN/OUT and Deltak Comparisons, CG Allocation Analisys

11

REMI with Δ >20% or <-20%Publication 2: 516

IN 4.014.474.452 Sm3OUT (Term C) SBG Publication 2 4.317.839.194 Sm3

115

120

125

130

135

140

145

150

155

160

165

170

175

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29

MSm

3

IN OUT PUBB2

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29

MSm

3

DELTA K Auction DELTA K PUBB2

SBG Publication 226th March 2020

74 out of 85 UdBs with at least 1 overrun of capacity

7.461 out of about 85.000 booked capacities in overrun

901 with only 1 abnormal withdrawals

6,4M€ of simulated capacity overrun charges on Citygates

5,4M€ with only 1 abnormal withdrawals

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March 2020 – Definitive Balance Timeline

1st SBG publication

14th April 2020

2nd SBG publication

24th April 2020

1st Publication of SRG

Definitive Balance

28th April 2020

2nd Publication of SRG

Definitive Balance

7th May 2020

3rd Publication of SRG

Definitive Balance

8th May 2020

4th Publication of SRG

Definitive Balance

13th May 2020

Resolution

181/2020/R/gas

26th May 2020

3rd SBG publication

Within 6th November 2020

4th SBG publication

Within 20th November 2020

5th Publication of SRG

Definitive Balance

Within 27th November 2020

12

Resolution 222/2020/R/gas16th June 2020

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March 2020 – IN/OUT and Deltak Comparisons, CG Allocation Analisys

13

REMI with Δ >20% or <-20%Publication 2: 344

IN 3.573.630.305 Sm3OUT (Term C) SBG Publication 2 3.793.722.329 Sm3

SBG Publication 224th April 2020

74 out of 86 UdBs with at least 1 overrun of capacity

5.557 out of about 86.000 booked capacities in overrun

730 with only 1 abnormal withdrawals

5,9M€ of simulated capacity overrun charges on Citygates

4,65M€ with only 1 abnormal withdrawals

707580859095

100105110115120125130135140145150155160

01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31

MSm

3

IN OUT PUBB2

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31

MSm

3

DELTA K Auction DELTA K PUBB2

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April 2020 – Definitive Balance Timeline

1st SBG publication

15th May 2020

2nd SBG publication

26th May 2020

Resolution

181/2020/R/gas

26th May 2020

1st Publication of SRG

Definitive Balance

28th May 2020

1st SBG publication Used

2nd Publication of SRG

Definitive Balance

1st June 2020

2nd SBG publication Used

3rd Publication of SRG

Definitive Balance

9th June 2020

2nd SBG publication Used

DETTAGLIO_PDR_SBG_

EXC publication

15th June 2020

Related to 2nd SBG publication

Resolution

222/2020/R/gas

16th June 2020

3rd SBG publication

27th June 2020

4th SBG publication

2nd July 2020

DETTAGLIO_PDR_SBG_

EXC publication

3rd July 2020

Related to 4th SBG publication

4th Publication of SRG

Definitive Balance

?

14

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April 2020 – IN/OUT and Deltak Comparisons, CG Allocation Analisys

15

SBG Publication 115th May 2020

2.088 out of about 90.000 booked capacities in overrun

463 with only 1 abnormal withdrawals

1,185M€ of simulated capacity overrun charges on Citygates

0,197M€ with only 1 abnormal withdrawals

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

105

115

125

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

MSm

3

IN OUT Pubb 1 OUT Pubb 2 OUT Pubb 3 OUT Pubb 4

IN 1.729.756.256 Sm3OUT (Term C) SBG Pubb 1 1.585.780.656 Sm3OUT (Term C) SBG Pubb 2 1.603.096.120 Sm3OUT (Term C) SBG Pubb 3 1.638.540.261 Sm3OUT (Term C) SBG Pubb 4 1.629.684.322 Sm3

-15

-10

-5

-

5

10

15

20

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

MSm

3

Δk Auction ΔK Pubb1 ΔK Pubb2 ΔK Pubb3 ΔK Pubb4

REMI with Δ >20% or <-20%SBG Pubb 1: 1065 SBG Pubb 2: 1013 SBG Pubb 3: 1012 SBG Pubb 4: 1013

SBG Publication 327th June 2020

2.179 booked capacities in overrun

520 with only 1 abnormal withdrawals

30,98M€ of simulated capacity overrun charges on Citygates

28,75M€ with only 1 abnormal withdrawals

SBG Publication 42nd July 2020

2.162 booked capacities in overrun

508 with only 1 abnormal withdrawals

29,9M€ of simulated capacity overrun charges on Citygates

28,47M€ with only 1 abnormal withdrawals

SBG Publication 226th May 2020

2.115 booked capacities in overrun

476 with only 1 abnormal withdrawals

1,166M€ of simulated capacity overrun charges on Citygates

0,813M€ with only 1 abnormal withdrawals

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May 2020 – Definitive Balance Timeline

1st SBG publication

16th June 2020

DETTAGLIO_PDR_SBG_E

XC publication

16th June 2020

Related to 1st SBG publication

Resolution

222/2020/R/gas

16th June 2020

1st Publication of SRG

Definitive Balance

26th June 2020

1st SBG publication Used

2nd SBG publication

27th June 2020

DETTAGLIO_PDR_SBG_E

XC publication

27th June 2020

Related to 2nd SBG publication

2nd Publication of SRG

Definitive Balance

14th July 2020

16

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20

25

30

35

40

45

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

MSm

3

IN OUT Pubb 1 OUT Pubb 2

-

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

MSm

3

Delta k Auction Delta K Pubb1 Delta K Pubb2

May 2020 – IN/OUT and Deltak Comparisons, CG Allocation Analisys

17

SBG Publication 116th June 2020

366 out of about 93.000 booked capacities in overrun

102 with only 1 abnormal withdrawals

0,716M€ of simulated capacity overrun charges on Citygates

0,154M€ with only 1 abnormal withdrawals

IN 1.066.134.341 Sm3OUT (Term C) SBG Pubb 1 0.935.625.061 Sm3OUT (Term C) SBG Pubb 2 0.946.671.350 Sm3

REMI with Δ >20% or <-20%SBG Pubb 1: 1190 SBG Pubb 2: 516

SBG Publication 227th June 2020

432 booked capacities in overrun

133 with only 1 abnormal withdrawals

3,645M€ of simulated capacity overrun charges on Citygates

2,935M€ with only 1 abnormal withdrawals

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Possible future evolutions – How to solve April, May and future anomalies?

Transmission of

SBG without

abnormal

withdrawals

AU TSO

Transmission of

distribution pdr list

and daily amounts

in case of

abnormal

withdrawals

AU TSO, DSO, UdD,

UdB

Verification and

sending of daily

amounts

(confirmation or

correction) *

DSO TSO, UdD, UdB

Aggregation of

information and

calculation of

allocations

TSO UdB

Publication of gas

transportation

balance

RdB UdB

18

Resolution 181/2020/R/gas, comma 1, Procedure

January 2020

* Non-transmission of data involved the automatic confirmation of the EXCLUSION of the pdr from the calculation of the withdrawal from the

transportation balance

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Possible future evolutions – How to solve April, May and future anomalies?

19

Critical Issues

* After Resolution 222/2020/R/gas, non-transmission of data involved the automatic confirmation of the INCLUSION of the pdr from the

calculation of the withdrawal from the transportation balance

Non-uniformity of SBG Information (1st Aggregation without abnormal withdrawals; 2nd Aggregation with abnormal withdrawals)

Certainty in defining whether distribution's PdR, whose withdrawals have not positively passed the consistency check, must be considered in the

calculation of the Transportation Balance *

Information set of distribution PdRs whose withdrawals have not positively passed the consistency check

Consistency of information

Time-critical situation

DSO declaration with new data according to a pre-established format

Explicit DSO commitment to correct the data at SII within deadlines useful for the adjustment session

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Agenda

1

Summary of the first months of application of the new Settlement Gas regulation

"As is" of provisions relating to the Definitive Balances - Future developments

SETTLEMENT GAS – BALANCING SESSIONS

2 BILLING PROCESS

Focus on 2015-2018 Multi-year Adjustment Session and 2018 Annual Session

Update on extraordinary balance adjustments - January / April 2020

Way forward on billing for city-gate variances

3 SETTLEMENT GAS – PERFORMANCES

Focus on the supply of the quantity of gas needed to operate the system ()

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21

Publication of

definitive physical and

economic data

EPSuk/MEPSuk

Update

SRG issues the

credit/debit documents

and gives Shippers

useful information for

their invoices

August 2020 - 2° half

(provisional)

Beginning of September 2020 (+10

WD) (provisional)

• Credit for SRG: PDet increased by the total net amount of the Δ Dsk and Δ IO

• Debit for SRG: PDet will be decreased by a quota of the total net amount of the Δ Dsk and Δ IO

• The above quota is determined from time to time according to the SRG coverage (ARERA-CSEA)

Focus on Multi-year adjustments - Invoicing timeline multiannual session 2015-2018

September 2020– 2° half

(provisional)

12 June publication

of provisional

physical & economic

data

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22

Focus on Multi-year adjustments

• «Reverse Charge» regime for passive subjects resellers

• 10% ordinary VAT for all other subjects that do not fall under the previous point

• Invoice payment within 15 days

• «Reverse Charge» regime

• Invoice payment within 30 days (subject to resource availability ARERA-CSEA)

• The adjustment of the Δ I/O fees will take place with the issuance by SRG of the relative document

(credit/debit)

• Invoice payment within 15 days by Shippers

• Payment of credit document by SRG to Shippers subject to resource availability ARERA-CSEA)

Invoices issued by SRG

Invoices issued by the Shippers

Documents issued by SRG

DSk

Δ I/O

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Focus on Annual adjustments - invoicing timeline annual session 2018

20 December 2019

SRG issues the credit/debit

documents’

20 December 2019

SRG gives Shippers useful

information for their invoices

29 June 2020

The SRG payment took place

3

by the end of may 2020

Deliberation n.156/2020/R/gas

CSEA gave the funds to SRG to cover

the DSK and D/IO for the 2018

adjustment session

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Update on extraordinary balance adjustments January / April 2020

Publication of

the physical and

economic results

of extraordinary

balance

adjustments

EPSuk/MEPSuk

Update

SRG issues the

credit/debit

documents and gives

Shippers useful

information for their

invoices

• Jan-2020: 10th Jul 11th Jul by end of August (provisional)

• Feb-2020: end of Oct-2020 end of Oct-2020 by end of November (provisional)

• Mar-2020: end of Nov-2020 end of Nov-2020 by end of December (provisional)

• Apr-2020: Date T.B.D.

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Way forward on billing for city-gate variances

Regulatory background

November 2020 (PROVISIONAL): SRG will communicate methods and timing useful to allow Shippers to

increase the capacity they have at the city gates with effect from 1 October 2019

December 2020 (PROVISIONAL): the extraordinary process of capacity increase will be activated

Easier than usual [booking request and confirmation by SRG without

subscription]

Actions

Resolution 538/2019/R/Gas

Extraordinary booking process reserved for city gates

Resolution 181/2020/R/Gas

Provide that the new timelines referred to the extraordinary booking process will be communicated by

SRG, taking into account solid database to carry out assessments on the capacity increases (considering

at least 3 definitive monthly energetic balances)

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Agenda

1

Summary of the first months of application of the new Settlement Gas regulation

"As is" of provisions relating to the Definitive Balances - Future developments

SETTLEMENT GAS – BALANCING SESSIONS

2 BILLING PROCESS

Focus on 2015-2018 Multi-year Adjustment Session and 2018 Annual Session

Update on extraordinary balance adjustments - January / April 2020

Way forward on billing for city-gate variances

3 SETTLEMENT GAS – PERFORMANCES

Focus on the supply of the quantity of gas needed to operate the system ()

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Modeling – Input Data

27

Wheater Data

• Cities

• Cells

Temporal information

• Month

• Dayof the week and of the

month

• National holidays

Geographical data

• Latitude and longitude

coordinates

• Region and province

• Climate Zone and Climate

Area

Measured Data

• Measurement report

• Wkr forecasts

• Telemetered data

• Consumption profiles

Free parameters for the modeling of categorical variables

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Modeling – Input Data – Telemetered geographic coverage

28

Features Cells Model

Percentage of cells covered by remote reading

Percentage of ReMi Not Telemetered ≈ 3%

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• Training set: from Thermal Year 2013-2014 to Thermal Year 2017-2018.

• Model selection: cross-validation based on K-folds cross-validation (K=5 Thermal Years) in order to

obtain a solid estimator of performances.

• Test set: the model chosen was tested for forecasts of ΔSett of Thermal Year 2018-2019 in order to

evaluete the final performance.

• The chosen model uses an arithmetic mean (ensable) of forecasts of everyone of 5 models

Modeling – Training and Test Set

29

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Δk evaluation – forecast

Targets • Overview on Δk evaluation progress

• Observations between Forecast Model (FM) and Snam Rete Gas Forecast activities (SRGF)

• Identify critical issues between the two evaluation methods

Dataset

Reference period: 01/01/2020-31/05/2020 (152 days)

• IN (quantity of gas putted in the network)

• OUT (quantity of gas withdrawn from the network)

• Δk

N.B. Each set of data includes final, FM and SGRF values

30

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Δk evaluation – forecast

Step analysis

1. Observations and comparision of IN and OUT data

2. Observations and comparision of Δk data

Statistical Tools used in the analysis

a) Time Plots: time series diagram

b) Scatter plots and correlation coefficients

c) MAPE – Mean Absolute Percentage Error: ratio between the differece of evaluated and final value with

final value

31

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1.a) IN and OUT (1)

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20

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100

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140

160

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200

220

01/01/2020 01/02/2020 01/03/2020 01/04/2020 01/05/2020

IN [MSmc] IN Time Plot

IN SRGF IN Final IN FM Mean IN Final

Slight under\over evaluation in FM e SRGF

IN decrease

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1.a) IN and OUT (2)

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20

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80

100

120

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160

180

200

01/01/2020 01/02/2020 01/03/2020 01/04/2020 01/05/2020

OUT [MSmc] OUT Time Plot

OUT SRGF OUT Final OUT FM Mean OUT final

OUT decrease

Slight under\over evaluation in FM e SRGF

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1.b) IN and OUT (1)

34

Correlations IN January February March April May Ref. periodFM VS Final 0,890 0,926 0,947 0,947 0,720 0,992SRGF VS Final 0,965 0,925 0,968 0,990 0,948 0,996

Correlations OUT January February March April May Ref. PeriodFM VS Final 0,965 0,966 0,951 0,987 0,946 0,998SRGF VS Final 0,970 0,978 0,952 0,996 0,967 0,998

0,400

0,600

0,800

1,000

January February March April May Ref.Period

IN Correlation

SRGF VS Final FM VS Final

0,400

0,600

0,800

1,000

January February March April May Ref.Period

OUT Correlation

SRGF VS Final FM VS Final

• Excellent correlation in all cases

• FM correlation in May is slightly lower than the SGRF one

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1.b) IN and OUT (2)

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0

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0 50 100 150 200 250

IN Scatter Plot - SRGF Vs Final [MSmc]

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0 50 100 150 200 250

IN Scatter Plot - FM Vs Final [MSmc]

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0,0 50,0 100,0 150,0 200,0 250,0

OUT Scatter Plot - SRGF Vs Final [MSmc]

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150

200

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0 50 100 150 200 250

OUT Scatter Plot - FM Vs Final [MSmc]

High level on density correlation. Data are

perfectly matched with final values.

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1.c) IN and OUT

36

MAPE IN January February March April May Ref. PeriodFM VS Final 4,82% 4,63% 5,19% 8,61% 7,99% 6,25%SRGF VS Final 2,36% 3,51% 3,95% 6,44% 5,62% 4,38%

MAPE OUT January February March April May Ref. PeriodFM VS Final 2,48% 2,24% 3,56% 5,57% 5,41% 3,86%SRGF VS Final 1,91% 1,53% 3,91% 6,52% 6,73% 4,14%

0%

5%

10%

15%

January February March April May Ref.Period

IN MAPE

SRGF VS Final FM VS Final

0%

5%

10%

15%

January February March April May Ref. Period

OUT MAPE

SRGF VS Final FM VS Final

• MAPE level under 10% in all cases

• FM MAPE is greater than the SGRF one in April and May

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2.a) Δk

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-40

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-20

-10

0

10

20

30

01/01/2020 01/02/2020 01/03/2020 01/04/2020 01/05/2020

Δk [MSmc] Δk Time Plot

DeltaK Final DeltaK FM DeltaK SRGF

High instability in Δk evaluation

Large amount of under\over evaluation in winter period

Abnormal case at the end of March. Possible influence of

temperature variation

Stationary trend when temperature variation

drops

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2.b) Δk

38

Correlations January February March April May Ref. PeriodFM VS Final 0,773 0,773 0,783 0,950 0,846 0,906SRGF VS Final 0,816 0,734 0,801 0,906 0,497 0,840

0,000

0,200

0,400

0,600

0,800

1,000

January February March April May Ref. Period

ΔK Correlation

SRGF VS Final FM VS Final

-30

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0

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-30 -20 -10 0 10 20

Δk Scatter Plot - SRG Vs Final [MSmc]

• High level of correlation in all cases

• Low level of correlation in May for FM

• Data are perfectly matched with final values in both cases

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30

Δk Scatter Plot - FM Vs Final [MSmc]

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2.c) Δk (1)

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MAPE January February March April May Ref. Period

FM VS Final 42,81% 26,36% 26,66% 29,10% 12,27% 27,45%

SRGF VS Final 16,10% 17,95% 22,55% 11,23% 3,86% 14,31%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

January February March April May Ref. Period

ΔK MAPE

SRGF VS Final FM VS Final

• High MAPE level in all FM cases

• SRGF made low evaluation errors: Δk is more accurate than FM’s one

• SRGF worst cases are February and March; FM worst case is January

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2.c) Δk (2)

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0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

01/01/2020 01/02/2020 01/03/2020 01/04/2020 01/05/2020

Comparision between AE% - SRGF Vs FM

AE%_SRGF VS Final AE%_FM VS Final

FM Absolute Error (AE) is more relevant than the SRGF one

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2.c) Δk (3)

41

Case of SRGF Δk Absolute Error (AE) in February and March

0

5.000.000

10.000.000

15.000.000

20.000.000

Average Error

High AE on Weekend

0

5.000.000

10.000.000

15.000.000

20.000.000

Average Error

High AE at the end of March

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2.c) Δk (4)

42

0 °

5 °

10 °

15 °

20 °

25 °

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160Temperature [°C]IN [MSmc] IN variation due to temperature

Aver. MIN (°C) Aver. MAX (°C) IN SRGF IN Final

0 °

5 °

10 °

15 °

20 °

25 °

0

50

100

150

200Temperature [°C]OUT [MSmc] OUT variation due to temperature

Aver. MIN (°C) Aver. MAX (°C) OUT SRGF OUT Final

0 °

5 °

10 °

15 °

20 °

25 °

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

19/03/2020 20/03/2020 21/03/2020 22/03/2020 23/03/2020 24/03/2020 25/03/2020 26/03/2020 27/03/2020 28/03/2020 29/03/2020 30/03/2020 31/03/2020

Temperature [°C]AE [MSmc] AE variation due to temperature

Aver. MIN (°C) Aver. MAX (°C) AE IN AE OUT

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Performance p4

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[GW

h]

p4 = OTM − Ψ + LPd − LPe

Deviation between volumes traded for the system

and the volumes effectively needed

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Performance p5

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[GW

h]

p5 = TTiM − OT

Ma

Volumes procured in advance for the

operation of the system

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AGS Auctions - Prices

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-300.000

-200.000

-100.000

-

100.000

200.000

5,0

7,0

9,0

11,0

13,0

15,0

01/01/2020 01/02/2020 01/03/2020 01/04/2020 01/05/2020 01/06/2020 01/07/2020

MW

h

€/M

Wh

AGS - MGP

AGS MGP - Quantity SAP (MGP+1) AGS MGP

-200.000

-150.000

-100.000

-50.000

-

50.000

100.000

150.000

3,0

5,0

7,0

9,0

11,0

13,0

15,0

17,0

01/01/2020 01/02/2020 01/03/2020 01/04/2020 01/05/2020 01/06/2020 01/07/2020

MW

h

€/M

Wh

AGS - MI

AGS MI - Quantity SAP (MI) AGS MI

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Performance P4 detail

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-250

-200

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-100

-50

0

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01/01/2020 01/02/2020 01/03/2020 01/04/2020 01/05/2020

𝐶 𝑃𝐸 𝐺𝑁𝐶 𝛥𝐿𝑃𝑐 𝛥𝑠𝑒𝑡𝑡 IT_OBA SN_T

p4 = OTM − Ψ + LPd − LPe

Ψ = C + PE + GNC + ΔLPC + ΔSett - IT OBA - SNT

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C O M M E R C I A L W O R K S H O P

S E T T L E M E N T G A S & B I L L I N G 2 8 . 0 7 . 2 0 2 0