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COMMERCE CORRIDOR STUDY 1
Photo: City of Richmond
COMMERCE CORRIDOR Transportation Connectivity, Accessibility and Economic Opportunity Study
Richmond Regional Transportation Planning Organization
Technical Advisory Committee
6/13/2017
COMMERCE CORRIDOR STUDY 2
1969
Commission
Planning District
Stakeholders
3
COMMERCE CORRIDOR STUDY 3
Introduction to Commerce Corridor
4
COMMERCE CORRIDOR STUDY 4
Background
Can the already strained transportation system in the study area accommodate and facilitate
anticipated future growth?
5
COMMERCE CORRIDOR STUDY 5
Task 1: Existing Conditions & Asset Inventory
Task 2: Existing Deficiency & Needs Identification
Task 3: Defining Future & Stakeholder Outreach
Task 4: Market Opportunity Scenario Analysis & Future Needs Assessment
Task 5: Needs Prioritization
Task 6: Solution Identification
Task 7: Assessment of Solutions
Task 8: Identification of Short, Medium, & Long-Term Solutions
Task 9: Implementation Plan/Roadmap
We Are Here
Scope Overview
Focus of Today’s Presentation
6
COMMERCE CORRIDOR STUDY 6
Task 1 & 2: Existing Transportation Assets & Deficiencies
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COMMERCE CORRIDOR STUDY 7
Existing Transportation Assets & Deficiencies
• Transportation Data collected in the following areas:
• Highways
• Horizontal Geometrics – e.g. inadequate radii, short transitions
• Vertical Geometrics – e.g. bridge clearances
• Congestion hot-spots
• Pavement condition
• Bridge condition
• Heavy Truck Percentages
• Crash history
• Transit service in study area
• Rail network, crossings, and bridge clearances
• Port operations and constraints
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COMMERCE CORRIDOR STUDY 8
Existing Transportation Assets & Deficiencies
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COMMERCE CORRIDOR STUDY 9
Pavement in poor condition
Bridge vertical clearance: 14’-1”Bridge substructure is structurally deficient
Bridge vertical clearance: 14’-1”
Ramp has difficult weave & tight radius with 25 mph warning sign
Loop ramp has tight radius with 20 mph warning sign
Private utility easement under I-95
Pavement in poor condition
I-95 interchange with Route 895 missing SB to EB movement
Insufficient RR crossing / east-west connectivity
Ramp has tight radius with 20 mph warning sign
Route 1 has multiple driveways and intersections that do not meet VDOT standard spacing
Bridge vertical clearance: 14’-1”
Ramp has tight radius with 20 mph warning sign
Private gravel/dirt road under I-95
Deficiencies in:- Roadway geometry- Pavement Condition- Structural condition
Existing Transportation Assets & DeficienciesHighway System
Short green phase for RMT movements
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COMMERCE CORRIDOR STUDY 10
Task 3: Defining the Future of the Commerce Corridor
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COMMERCE CORRIDOR STUDY 11
• Be a dynamic, economic engine for the region that serves as its gateway for commerce.
• Be a vibrant, intermodal corridor that provides sustainable, multimodal transportation opportunities.
• Be recognized nationally for its integrated economic and transportation systems development.
• Foster continued growth in quality, well-paying jobs and ladders of opportunity for the community.
• Catalyze investment and redevelopment in the corridor and around the region.
In 2040 the Commerce Corridor will…
Defining the Future of the Commerce Corridor
12
COMMERCE CORRIDOR STUDY 12
• Online and written survey developed to solicit feedback from residents of the Commerce Corridor study area
• Written surveys collected from community meetings:• A Place of Miracle’s Café (10/18/16)
• Bellemeade Civic Association (10/20/16)
• Forty-nine responses were collected.
Defining the Future of the Commerce CorridorPublic Outreach
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COMMERCE CORRIDOR STUDY 13
Task 4: Market Opportunity Scenario Analysis
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COMMERCE CORRIDOR STUDY 14
• Develop Three Corridor Growth Scenarios• Baseline forecast for region
• Two alternative scenarios
• Load growth onto Targeted Development Sites
• Analyze each Scenarios impact on:• Employment by industry/occupation
• Freight production and mode share (rail-truck)
• Daily and AM/PM peak trips
• Identify future transportation system needs
Task 4: Market Opportunity Scenario AnalysisStudy Process
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COMMERCE CORRIDOR STUDY 15
Resources:
Regional Travel Model, TREDIS vFreight
Assessment of Solutions
Development Scenarios (2040)Baseline: Anticipated future | Alternative 1 & 2: Instructive
site-specific alternatives (incremental to baseline)
Transportation-Economic ConnectionTrip making/mode share from scenario economic activity
(emphasis: freight)
Transportation Stress TestForecast changes in transportation system performance,
network capacity
Future levels of development, industry mix
Future Transportation NeedsDeficiencies under baseline & 2 alternatives,
holding transportation system constant
SolutionsAlternative
transportation system
System performance
Resources: Prior studies, zoning, economic data/forecasts
Resources: TREDIS vFreight, Regional Travel ModelFuture
demand on the system
Resources: Regional Travel Demand Model,off-line tools for rail
Task 4: Market Opportunity Scenario AnalysisStudy Process
COMMERCE CORRIDOR STUDY 16
Targeted Development Sites
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COMMERCE CORRIDOR STUDY 17
Development Scenarios Decision matrix from 11/9/16 meeting
Exercise: Select 2 of the 6 options in the matrix
(Goal: choose instructive plausible alternatives that are incremental to the baseline; explore implications for future transportation needs)
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COMMERCE CORRIDOR STUDY 18
Defining the Alternatives
Baseline
Based on RRTPO 2040 Socioeconomic Forecast of population and employment for the region. Held current use of targeted development sites constant (i.e., no-build on target sites) to isolate the effects of site development in the alternative scenarios.
Alternative 1 – Forecast Future Industry Mix
Baseline growth of region plus ‘Forecast Future Industry Mix’ applied to targeted development sites. Development reflects the expected industry mix for the region as a whole in 2040. Dominant activity attracted to target sites is wholesale trade, warehousing and storage and some manufacturing
Alternative 2 – Port-Oriented Manufacturing
Baseline growth of region plus ‘Port-Oriented Manufacturing’ applied to targeted development sites. Development reflects an economic development strategy focused on sectors with strong growth prospects that also rely on containerized ports for import of raw materials or intermediate inputs and/or export of finished products. Dominant activity attracted to target sites is manufacturing.
19
COMMERCE CORRIDOR STUDY 19
Development Analysis “Ingredients”
Employment: % by Industry
Sq.ft/Employee, by Industry
Floor-Area-RatioTotal Jobs on Each Site, By
Industry
Scenario definition(prior slides)
U.S. Energy Information Administration
Observed Typologies:
Source: Philadelphia Industrial Development Corporation. An Industrial Market and Land Use Strategy for the City of Philadelphia. 2010.
20
COMMERCE CORRIDOR STUDY 20
Final Industry Job Distribution, By Scenario
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COMMERCE CORRIDOR STUDY 21
Resources:
Regional Travel Model, TREDIS vFreight
Assessment of Solutions
Development Scenarios (2040)Baseline: Anticipated future | Alternative 1 & 2: Instructive
site-specific alternatives (incremental to baseline)
Transportation-Economic ConnectionTrip making/mode share from scenario economic activity
(emphasis: freight)
Transportation Stress TestForecast changes in transportation system performance,
network capacity
Future levels of development, industry mix
Future Transportation NeedsDeficiencies under baseline & 2 alternatives,
holding transportation system constant
SolutionsAlternative
transportation system
System performance
Resources: Prior studies, zoning, economic data/forecasts
Resources: TREDIS vFreight, Regional Travel ModelFuture
demand on the system
Resources: Regional Travel Demand Model,off-line tools for rail
Task 4: Market Opportunity Scenario AnalysisRecap: Study Process
22
COMMERCE CORRIDOR STUDY 22
4 Categories of Needs
• Highway-Oriented
• Rail-Oriented
• Port-Oriented
• Miscellaneous (Policy, etc.)
Illustrative Example:
Needs and Solutions
H7.1
Upon specific redevelopment details at Site 1, perform necessary traffic study to determine
what improvements are needed beyond that included in Need H5 above. This includes
function of Bells Road Access Rd.
H7.2Construct missing link of Walmsley Boulevard with grade separated crossing of
CSX Bellwood Subdivision Line.
Improve truck / auto capacity into
and out of Site 1 (Altria / DuPont)
Need Solution
23
COMMERCE CORRIDOR STUDY 23
• Short-, Medium-, and Long-Term Solutions under review by Stakeholder Committee
• Draft deliverables under development• Technical Report
• Implementation Plan
• June 29th – planned final engagement with Stakeholder Committee to review deliverables
• July 7th – initial presentation to RRTPO
Study Next Steps
COMMERCE CORRIDOR STUDY 24
Questions?
Part II briefing planned for July 11, 2017 TAC Meeting
25
COMMERCE CORRIDOR STUDY 25
Project Communication
Meeting coordination and information sharing through RRTPO staff.
Primary contact:
Chris Wichman
(804) 323-2033
Project website:
http://www.richmondregional.org/Commerce_Corridor/
COMMERCE CORRIDOR STUDY 26
Photo: City of Richmond
COMMERCE CORRIDOR Transportation Connectivity, Accessibility and Economic Opportunity Study
Richmond Regional Transportation Planning Organization
Technical Advisory Committee
6/13/2017
COMMERCE CORRIDOR STUDY 27
Supplemental Slides:
Demands on Transportation Network
28
COMMERCE CORRIDOR STUDY 28
Development-Generated Rail Demand
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
KTo
ns
Year
Rail Tonnage – Annual, in the Region
Base Alternative 1 Alternative 2
10%29%
• Aggregate regional estimation of rail demand from new development alternatives, relative to baseline growth
• Tonnage forecast based on current pattern of commodities produced/consumed by each industry that use freight rail
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COMMERCE CORRIDOR STUDY 29
Development-Generated Rail Demand
• All four sites have nearby or immediately adjacent Class 1 Rail lines
• For each site, infrastructure investment will be needed to allow for rail access, depending on site layout and service requirements
• Due to the large area & multiple parcels reflected at Sites 3 & 4, not all parcels will be able to achieve practical & cost-effective rail access
Alt 1: Moderate industrial development
at 4-sites mimicking regional patterns
Alt 2: More intense industrial development
at 4-sites reflecting port-oriented uses
30
COMMERCE CORRIDOR STUDY 30
Development-Generated Highway Demand
• Daily highway trips includes both employee work trips as well as trucks generated by industrial activity
• From an acreage / development potential standpoint, sites 3 and 4 are able to generate significantly more demand than sites 1 and 2.
Alt 1: Moderate industrial development
at 4-sites mimicking regional patterns
Alt 2: More intense industrial development
at 4-sites reflecting port-oriented uses
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COMMERCE CORRIDOR STUDY 31
Medium Volume Increase
5% - 10% daily increase on
major1 roads
25% - 50% daily increase on minor2 road
Large Volume Increase
10% or greater daily increase
on major1 roads
50% or greater daily increase
on minor2 roads
Future Highway VolumesTwo types of highway volume increases identified
1 Major roads are defined at having higher volume and at least 2-lanes in each direction2 Minor roads are defined as having lower volumes and typically 1-lane in each direction
Traffic volume increases reflect the change from 2040 baseline to
2040 Alt 2*
*Alt 2: More intense industrial development
at 4-sites reflecting port-oriented uses
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COMMERCE CORRIDOR STUDY 32
Future Highway Volumes
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COMMERCE CORRIDOR STUDY 33
Future Highway Volumes
Change in 2040 Daily Volume:
Medium Increase
Large Increase
Comparing Baseline to Alternative 2
Yellow represents defined growth area
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COMMERCE CORRIDOR STUDY 34
Future Highway Operations
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COMMERCE CORRIDOR STUDY 35
Highway links that DO NOT get impacted by our growth scenarios and ARE NOT congested in 2040
Highway links that DO NOT get impacted by our growth scenarios and ARE congested in 2040
Highway links that DO GET impacted by our growth scenarios and ARE NOT congested in 2040
Highway links that DO GET impacted by our growth scenarios and ARE congested in 2040
All of these locations were further investigated
Only those in close proximity to our growth sites were further
investigated
1
2
3
4
Future Highway OperationsStudy investigated two types of impacts
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COMMERCE CORRIDOR STUDY 36
Future Transportation Impacts and Needs
Yellow represents defined growth area
Alt 2 Peak Period 2040 Congestion:
Congested but not impacted by growth
Congested and impacted by growth
‘Congestion’ defined as LOS D or worse