COMAP Lab SREF Applications

COMAP18 June 2007Boulder, CO

Lab IntroductionSREF Applications

Day Shift Forecast Exercise

EXERCISE:1. Create Day 1 Outlooks for: Fire Weather and Winter Weather2. Create Day 1 and Day 2 Outlooks for: Severe Convective WeatherAssess threat confidence using the qualifiers: low, medium, high

DATA:Observational data available:12 UTC Upper Air Charts (handouts)12 and 15 UTC Surface Maps (handouts)

Model data available: 09 UTC SREF (online…URL below)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/frames.php?run=case_comap

Day 1 Severe Outlook

Hail

Wind

Torn

Valid: 12 UTC to 12 UTC Day 1

Day 2 Severe OutlookValid: 12 UTC to 12 UTC Day 2

(Tomorrow)

Day 2 Fire OutlookValid: 12 UTC to 12 UTC Day 1

(Today)

Lab SummarySREF Applications

Lab Summary

Forecast Start: 09 UTC 1 January 2006

To view the case with dates included: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/frames.php?run=case_comap_nomask

The big weather event on Day 1, Sunday 1 January 2006:

Fires in New Mexico, Texas, and OklahomaFires in New Mexico, Texas, and Oklahoma

Lab Summary

Lab Summary

Lab Summary

Sea Level Pressure and Surface Wind AnalysisValid 21 UTC 1 January 2006

Lab Summary

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather OutlookValid 12 UTC 1 Jan – 12 UTC 2 Jan

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/2006/060101.html

Lab Summary

Convective Weather

Lab Summary

Lightning Activity (Day 1)Valid 12 UTC 1 Jan – 00 UTC 2 Jan

Lightning Activity (Day 1)Valid 00 UTC 2 Jan – 12 UTC 2 Jan

Lab Summary

Most Unstable CAPE (MUCAPE)Valid 06 UTC 2 January 2006

Lab Summary

Severe Convective Weather Reports (Day 1)Valid 12 UTC 1 Jan – 12 UTC 2 Jan

www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/060101_rpts.html

Lab Summary

Lightning Activity (Day 2)Valid 12 UTC 2 Jan – 00 UTC 3 Jan

Lightning Activity (Day 2)Valid 00 UTC 3 Jan – 12 UTC 3 Jan

Lab Summary

Significant Tornado Parameter (STP)Valid 18 UTC 2 January 2006

Lab Summary

Significant Tornado Parameter (STP)Valid 23 UTC 2 January 2006

Central Kentucky, ~18 UTC 2 Jan 2006(Up to F2 damage in Kentucky)

Lab Summary

Central Georgia, ~23 UTC 2 Jan 2006(Up to F3 damage in Georgia)

Lab Summary

Severe Convective Weather Reports (Day 2)Valid 12 UTC 2 Jan – 12 UTC 3 Jan

6 injuries in GA TOR

www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/060102_rpts.html

SPC Outlook (Day 1 issued 1630 UTC): http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2006/day1otlk_20060101_1630.html

Lab Summary

SPC Outlook (Day 2 issued 1730 UTC): http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2006/day2otlk_20060101_1730.html

Operational forecasts issued by the SPC on the morning of 1 January 2006:

Lab Summary

Winter Weather

Lab Summary

Liquid equivalent of 24h snow ending 06 UTC 2 January 2006Snow Reports: http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/reports.html?region=National&var=snowfall&dy=2006&dm=1&dd=2&units=e&sort=value

Lab Summary

VALID: 1255Z – 1630Z 1 January 2006

SPC Short-Term Mesoscale Discussion for Winter Weather

More info: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2006/md0001.html

Lab Summary

VALID: 1802Z – 2230Z 1 January 2006

SPC Short-Term Mesoscale Discussion for Winter Weather

More info: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2006/md0002.html

Lab Summary

VALID: 0038Z – 0445Z 2 January 2006

SPC Short-Term Mesoscale Discussion for Winter Weather

More info: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2006/md0004.html

Lab Summary

VALID: 0121Z – 0615Z 2 January 2006

SPC Short-Term Mesoscale Discussion for Winter Weather

More info: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2006/md0005.html

Archived SPC Meso-Analyses: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/ma_archive/

Archived SPC Forecasts: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/archive/

USDA Weekly and Crop Bulletin: http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/waob/weather_weekly//2000s/2006/weather_weekly-01-10-2006.pdf

FEMA Reports: http://www.fema.gov/emergency/reports/2006/janarch06.shtm

Lab SummaryAdditional Information for the Lab