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ASystemsPerspectiveDr.DavidGould

ComplexSystems

Acomplexsystemisagroupof“agents”existingfarfromequilibrium,interactingthroughpositiveandnegativefeedbacks,forminginterdependent,dynamic,evolutionarynetworks,thataresensitivedependent,fractionallyorganized,andexhibitavalanchebehavior(abruptchanges)thatfollowpower-lawdistributions.

Fichter,L.S.,Pyle,E.J.,&Whitmeyer,S.J.(2010).StrategiesandRubricsforTeachingChaosandComplexSystemsasElaborating,Self-Organizing,andFractionatingEvolutionarySystems.JournalofGeoscience Education.58(2)

TheEnvironment(forSocialSystems)Acomplexnetwork

Economy

Technology

PhysicalEnvironment

Society

Gov’t /PoliticalLegal

Competition

YouYourCommunityYourOrganization

YourCitySociety

AComplexSystemsModel

Material,Information,Energy(MIE)

Thresholds(tippingpoints)

Environment

Time

Space

Opportunities(positiveperturbations)

Threats(negativeperturbations)

System

SystemCharacteristics.Resilience/vulnerability.Competition/cooperation.Emergence/selforganization.Adaptation/learning.Informationprocessing.Patterns

ComplexSystemsModel

Networks

Boundary

Rules

Resources

EffectorsDetectors

Feedback

Inputs Outputs

Boundary

EmergenceAdaptation

Processes

ComplexSocialSystemsModel

Networks

Boundary

Rules Resources

EffectorsDetectors

Feedback

Inputs Outputs

Boundary

Emergence

Adaptation

STs

PTs

OPs

Resources

Single/DoubleLoopLearning

Processes

Goals

Patterns(LTG,…overtime)

Structures

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• Systems,includingsocieties,mayfailorcollapseforoneoracombinationofavarietyoffactors

• Externalperturbationsmayaffecttheflowofmaterial,information,andenergy(MIE)toorfromasystem.

• Externalperturbationsmaybethreatsoropportunities

• ThreatsmayoverwhelmorchangeasystembydisruptingtheflowofMIE

• Opportunitiesmayofferapossibilitytoimproveasystem.

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• Strengthsandweaknessesareinternaltoasystem

• Weaknesseswithinasystemmaycauseittofailorcollapse,suchasafailureorinabilitytorespondtoathreat

• Asystemsstrengthsmaystopathreat,mitigateathreat,orhelpasystemadapttoathreat.

SystemCollapseorFailure

Economy

Technology

PhysicalEnvironment

Society-at-Large

Gov’t /PoliticalLegal

Competition

Society

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• Fromthesystemsmodel(previouspage).– Humansocialsystemsaredependentontheirenvironment

– Humansocialsystemsaredependentonresourcesupplies(withinarange)ofMIE

– Changes(perturbations)toMIEsuppliesflowingintoasystemoroutofasystemmayresultinthreatsoropportunities

Collapse(cont)• Exogenousperturbationstoasocialsystemmaycauseittofailorcollapse– PhysicalEnvironment(climatechange,pestsdisease,viruses,pollution,wildfires,earthquakes…)

– Economics(Thelawofdiminishingreturns,disruptionofMIEfromsuppliers,recessions,depressions,…)

– Competition(war,conflict,disruptionofMIE,)– Technology(unabletokeepupwithadvancedtechnology)

– Society-at-large(disruptionofMIEflows)– Political(war,conflict,terrorism,….)

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• Endogenousperturbationswithinasocialsystemmaycauseittofailorcollapse– Technology(insufficienttomeetsocial,economic,orenvironmentalrequirements)

– PhysicalEnvironment(infrastructurefailuressuchastheelectronicgrid,roads,bridges,water,..;unabletokeepupwithdemands,…

– Society-at-large(apathy,unableorunwillingtolearn,rejectionofscienceandevidence,extremeinequality,lackoftalentandexpertise,inabilityorwillingnesstolead,inabilityorunabletorespondtothreatsorrisks…)

– Political(civilwar,conflict,domesticterrorism,….)

Top5GlobalRisks2020GlobalRisksReport(weforum.org)

1. ExtremeWeather2. ClimateActionFailure3. NaturalDisasters4. BiodiversityLoss5. Human-madeEnvironmentalDisasters

InTermsoflikelihood

Top5GlobalRisks2020GlobalRisksReport(weforum.org)

1. ClimateActionFailure2. WeaponsofMassDestruction3. BiodiversityLoss4. ExtremeWeather5. WaterCrisis

InTermsofImpact

Today’sTopRisk

Coronavirus• CoronaviruswasrecognizedinJanuary2020,perhapsearlierinthe

USandaftertheWorldEconomicForumpublishedtheirGlobalRisksReport.

• Andcoronavirushasnowpushedtheworldintoaneconomicrecession/depressionasofApril2020.

• Yet,climaterisksasdescribedbytheWorldEconomicForumandnotgoingaway.

• Thisleadstoa“perfectstorm”ofthreeexistentialthreats:apandemic,aneconomicdepression,andclimatechange.

• AsofMay2020,theUSfederalresponseisessentiallymissing,whilesomestateshaveengaged.

• AsofMay2020,theoutcomeofaddressingtheserisksisuncertain.

Essentiallysystemsfailorcollapsewhenasystem-threateningproblemcannotbesolved.

- AdaptedfromArnoldToynbee

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Time

CarryingCapacity

Consum

ption Overshoot

Overshootoccurswhenapopulationexceedsthecarryingcapacityofitsenvironment.Note:Thecarryingcapacityvariesdependingonfactorsintheenvironmentsuchastheavailabilityoffoodandwater,climatechange,….

SocialOvershoot

Time

SocialAdaptation

Change

Overshoot

Socialovershootoccurswhenenvironmentalchangeexceedstheabilityofasocialsystemtoadapt.Note:environmentchangeincludeseconomic,technological,physicalenvironmental,government/military/legal,and/orcompetitivechanges.Whatmighthappenwhensocialadaptationcannotkeepup?

ForceFieldAnalysisExample

System

(Society)

ForcesforChange ForcesAgainstChange

ClimateResourceDepletionTechnologyEconomyGovt/Military/LegalCompetitionConflict

ResistanceResilienceProblemSolvingCapabilityMitigationAdaptation

ComplexSocialSystemsBehaviorPatternsOverTime

Perturbingasystemresultsinoneoffourpossiblesystemoutcomes:equilibrium,periodic,chaotic,orcomplex.Note:equilibriummeansstable,possiblybecauseofsystemsfailure/collapse

Theories• JaredDiamond– Asdescribedinhisbook,Collapse.Nonsustainable exploitationofresources,climatechange,diminishingsupportfromfriendlysocieties,hostileneighbors,andinappropriateattitudesforchange.]

• JosephTainter– Societiesexhausttheirowndesignsandareunabletoadapt

• ArnoldToynbee– “Theyfindproblemstheycannotsolve.”

• ThomasHomer-Dixon– EROIorenergyreturnedonenergyinvested.Societiesneedenergytomaintainitandifthecostsofobtainingadditionalsourcesbecomestooexpensive,societywilldecline…

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Somethoughtsatthispoint..

References

• Adizes,A.(1999).Managingcorporatelifecycles.Paramus,NJ:Prentice-Hall.

• Diamond,J.(2013).Collapse:Howsocietieschoosetofailorsucceed(Revisededition).NewYork,NY:Penguin.

• Tainter,J.A.(1990).Thecollapseofcomplexsocieties.NewYork,NY:CambridgeUniversity.