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Collaborate to Innovate: The Role of Offshore Wind in Net Zero Emissions
Stefania Omassoli
Director, Programmes and Innovation
Carbon Trust
We do it with independence, impartiality and no own economic interest.
Who are The Carbon Trust?
We help leading organisations worldwide contribute to and benefit from a more sustainable future.
ADVICE AND INSIGHTS
We consult businesses, governments, public sector
bodies
PROGRAMMES
We design and manage projects with real impact
ASSURANCE AND CERTIFICATION
We certify and assure achievements in sustainability
Offshore wind; critical to achieve net zero emission
Renewable energy is a core part of the future smart energy system
Total global capacity of offshore wind projected to be 500 GW by 2050 (IEA)
Global deployment of offshore wind
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
UK Denmark Germany Netherlands Belgium China Other
18 GW installed globally (end 2017)
• 2018 numbers will show greater than 20GW
• Driven from Europe, particularly the UK, followed by Germany, Denmark, and the Netherlands
• Early growth in new markets in Asia and North America – China leading but Taiwan, Japan, Korea, and the United States progressing rapidly
8 MW is the largest turbine installed so far but 12 MW and 10 MW solutions will probably be installed soon
Turbines scaling up
Competitive auctions have accelerated cost reduction in Europe
6050
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157165174186
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15 Years 15 Years ~12 Years 20 Years
.
United Kingdom Netherlands Denmark Germany
Pro
ject
Years of Support
Bid Year
Whole sale price range
• Competitions introduced at the right time, once the industry had matured and developed a robust supply chain
• No local content requirements were imposed in the auctions
Capacity perspective
CONFIDENTIAL – NOT TO BE CIRCULATED OUTSIDE CARBON TRUST
Putting Offshore wind into perspective
20 GW
Global installed capacity (GW)
Offshore Wind
Capacity perspective
CONFIDENTIAL – NOT TO BE CIRCULATED OUTSIDE CARBON TRUST
Putting Offshore wind into perspective
540 GW
20 GW
Onshore Wind
Global installed capacity (GW)
Offshore Wind
Source: International Energy Statistics / Q3 2017: global power markets at a glance
Capacity perspective
CONFIDENTIAL – NOT TO BE CIRCULATED OUTSIDE CARBON TRUST
2000 GW
540 GW
20 GW
Onshore Wind
Offshore Wind
Coal Power generation
Global installed capacity (GW)
Source: International Energy Statistics / Q3 2017: global power markets at a glance
Putting Offshore wind into perspective
Expected global deployment in 2030
2030 global projection total: 120 GW
Compound Annual Growth Rate: 16%
Estimated cumulative capacity by 2030 - based on 4C Project Opportunity Pipeline, 2018, IRENA, INNOVATION OUTLOOK OFFSHORE WIND, 2017Carbon Trust Analysis, 2018BNEF, 2017
44GW36%
10GW8.3%
66GW55%
2030
Floating wind is gaining momentum1. Technology has been proven
IDEOL
Kabashima
Fukushima
2-7 MWProject size
2-7 MWTurbine size
1-3Turbine units
~20 MWCumulative IC (in 2016)
Demonstration sitesHywind
WindFloat
VolturnUS
Floating wind is gaining momentum2. Series of pre-commercial arrays set to come online by 2020/21
DCNS
IDEOL
SBM Offshore
Kabashima
Fukushima
20-50 MWProject size
6-8 MWTurbine size
3-8Turbine units
~100-200 MWCumulative IC (by 2020)
Pre-commercial
Hywind
WindFloat
IDEOL
WindFloat
Hywind
VolturnUS
Kincardine
Floating wind is gaining momentum3. Several commercial projects under development
USA: California + Hawaii
IDEOL
SBM Offshore
Kincardine
Kabashima
Fukushima
200-800 MWProject size
8-15 MWTurbine size
30-100Turbine units
~2-10 GWCumulative IC (by 2030)
CommercialHywind
IDEOL
Hywind
DCNS
WindFloat
WindFloat
VolturnUS
FR: Commercial tenderJP/TW: Commercial projects
Several challenges for large scale deployment of floating offshore wind
COST&
RISK
Dynamic cables & connectors
Integrated design
Mooring systems
Logistics (construction, O&M)
Substructure optimisation
Wake effects
Floating substation
Environmental & social impact
Turbine optimisation
Monitoring, inspection, maintenance, and repairs
R&D needed to: - Develop and de-risk
technology - Reduce costs
01
02
03
Cost reduction
Collaboration
Lowering of risk
Increasing investment
Accelerating commercialisation of technology
Creating competition between the innovators
and market pull
Development of new technology to solve common problems
Facilitate the sharing of knowledge and learning
Market development
Collaboration and Innovation – driving offshore wind in new markets
The Offshore Wind Accelerator (OWA)Collaborative research programme to bring down the cost of offshore wind through demonstration projects of innovative technologies and filling evidence gaps
€100m+Total programme spend
60%Industry funded
9Developer partners
10 yrsEstablished 2008
Carbon Trust has been working with government and industry to accelerate offshore wind for >10 years
ELECTRICAL SYSTEMS
FOUNDATIONS WAKES & WIND RESOURCE
ACCESS CABLE INSTALLATION
The cost of offshore wind has reduced well beyond industry predictions
The OWA has delivered a 15% reduction in LCOE, and £34bn overall savings
£34bn overall savings
-15.3%Average
LCOE impact
Conclusion
• Offshore is core to the renewable energy transition
• European market is moving into maturity
• Global aspiration for offshore wind is strong and accelerating
• Floating wind is core to global offshore wind expansion
• Innovation and collaboration is key to reach the required deployment to reduce the global reliance on fossil fuels
