I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e

Headquarters U.S. Air Force

As of: 1

Col Harold A. ElkinsChief, Weather Plans Division

NSWP AssessmentOFCM Silver Spring, MD

7 Jul 05

XOO-W NSWP AssessmentXOO-W NSWP Assessment

As of: 2I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e

• AFW/AFSWP Links

• AFW Contributing Efforts

• AFW Future Capability

• Way Ahead

• Summary

Overview

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AFW Linkages to NSWP Goals

National Space Weather Program Implementation Plan, 2nd Edition, July 2000

<= Collection

<= Analysis

<= Forecasting

<= Tailoring, Dissemination, & Integration

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AFW Contributing Efforts

• Cumulative 21% of AFW resources since 1998 dedicated to space weather

• Observation: Global space weather data collection network--5 solar radio and

optical observatories: Italy, Sagamore Hill, Holloman, Hawaii, Australia

Ionospheric sounding network on four continents Energetic particle data from military satellites Global network directly measures ionospheric scintillation

As of: 5I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e

AFW Contributing Efforts

Data Processing and Analysis: Ionospheric data available to DoD and DoC “Official” 3-hour (ap) averaged geomagnetic index

Auroral boundary and radar clutter HF point-to-point and global propagation Radar correction factors UHF SATCOM scintillation/point-to-point SATCOM link analysis Single-frequency GPS error estimates Hourly ionospheric activity indexes Environmental assessment of satellite anomalies

As of: 6I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e

AFW Contributing Efforts

• Forecasting: “Official” 3-hour averaged (ap) geomagnetic index 24-hour HF point-to-point and 6-hour global HF propagation 1-hour UHF SATCOM scintillation forecast; 6-hour scintillation outlook 24-hour UHF SATCOM scintillation point-to-point outlook 1-hour Single-frequency GPS error estimates

• Space weather products and services: Ionospheric Effects Characterization (IEC) Initial Capabilities Document

(ICD) Web accessible index, analysis and forecast products User-specific tailored products Advisory, watch and warning notification tied into users’ operation centers Established ingest, dissemination and communication architectures Web-based user feedback mechanisms via AFWA web pages

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AFW Contributing Efforts

• Numerical Modeling: AFWA Space Weather Operations Center (Space WOC)

runs the following models:

• Technology Transition: AFWA established dedicated space weather technology

transition cell; permits streamlined conduit to transition high priority technology into AFW operations

Transitioning GAIM—IOC FY07 UPOS improved geomagnetic activity index (Kp) algorithm

successfully transitioned

IACTN PRISM WBMOD PPS PIM

CRRESELE CRRESPRO CRRESRAD VOACAP MSM

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Overall Current Capability Assessment

Domains C A F T D M T2

Solar/

InterplanetaryG Y Y/R R G Y/R R

Magnetosphere Y/R Y/R R R G Y/R R

Ionosphere Y Y R Y G Y/R G

Neutral Atmosphere

Y Y R R Y R Y

C = Collect A = Analyze F = Forecast T = TailorD = Disseminate M = Modeling T2 = Tech Transition

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AFW Future Capability

• Observation: Civil-Military Enterprise: global network of ionospheric

collectors More numerous energetic particle data from military

satellites (CEASE) Global network and satellite beacon (C/NOFS) directly

measure ionospheric scintillation

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AFW Future Capability

• Data Processing and Analysis: Ionospheric data assimilation of many sources Improved ap accuracy (UPOS Kp algorithm)

Auroral boundary and radar clutter HF point-to-point and global propagation Radar correction factors UHF SATCOM scintillation Single- and dual-frequency GPS error estimates Hourly ionospheric activity indexes Environmental assessment of satellite anomalies

As of: 11I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e

Civil-Military Enterprise

From this:34 Scintillation, TEC and EDP stations

To this:Civil-Military Enterprise ofSeveral hundredScintillation, TEC and EDP stations

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AFW Future Capability

• Forecasting:Improved ap geomagnetic indexPhysics-based 24-hour HF point-to-point and HF propagation forecastsPhysics-based UHF SATCOM scintillation forecastPhysics-based single- and dual-frequency GPS error estimatesMagnetospheric/radiation belt forecastingGeosynchronous energetic electron forecasts

• Space weather products and services:Tailored, specific space weather information integrated directly into

operators’ Command and Control and Situational Awareness systemsIntegrated, net-centric dissemination and communication architectures Web-based user feedback mechanisms via AFWA web pages

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AFW Future Capability

• Numerical Modeling: GAIM IOC FY07 Magnetospheric Specification and Forecast Model

(MSFM) Relativistic Electron Forecast Model (REFM)

• Technology Transition AFWA transition of MSFM and REFM underway

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Overall Future Capability Projection

Domains C A F T D M T2

Solar/

InterplanetaryR/G R/Y R/Y R G R/Y R

Magnetosphere Y/R Y/R Y R G Y G

Ionosphere G G Y Y G Y G

Neutral Atmosphere

Y Y R R Y Y/R R

C = Collect A = Analyze F = Forecast T = TailorD = Disseminate M = Modeling T2 = Tech Transition

As of: 15I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e

Way Ahead

• Follow IEC ICD through the Joint Capabilities Integration and Development System (JCIDS) process

• Work the Civil-Military Enterprise with NOAA to expand access to ground-based ionospheric sensor data

• Integrate space weather into war fighter command and control, and situational awareness architectures

• Operationalize current research (i.e. CISM, CCMC, UPOS, etc.) as it matures, and as resources allow, to improve capability

• Continue partnerships with other government agencies to advance NSWP goals and enhance national space weather capability

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Summary

• AFW: a significant contributor to NSWP goals

• Activities underway continue to progress NSWP goals• Identified all-service ionospheric requirements to

DoD through JCIDS process• Goal: secure funding/resources to improve space

weather

• Multi-agency partnerships crucial to continued advancement of space weather capabilities

As of: 17I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e

Questions?