M-J. Sepúlveda, MD FACP FAAP

IBM Fellow

Cognitive Technologies, Thinking and Time Alvin F. Poussaint, MD Visiting Lectureship

December 6 2016

Alvin F. Poussaint, MD

2

Disclaimer Purpose: stimulate your thinking

Discussion threads

– time

– thinking

–cognitive computing

4

Photo: Luca Bruno / AP

2007

M_J Sepúlveda MD 6

2013

7

2008

8 IBM Confidential Photo: Reuters

2014

1990

2010

Data Tsunami, Data Quake

11

2.5 billion gigabytes data generated each

day

80% of the world’s data today are unstructured

1 Trillion connected objects

and devices

Expansion of Medical Knowledge

http://wingofzock.org/2014/12/23/medical-education-toy-airplane-or-stone-flywheel/

2X Medical

information doubling Q2 Yrs.

73 Days Medical

Information double by 2020

700K Journal

articles published

Q Yr.

Medical decisions becoming more complex

Proteomics and other effector molecules

Decisions by Clinical Phenotype

Structural Genetics: e.g. SNPs, haplotypes

Functional Genetics: Gene expression profiles

Fa

cts

pe

r D

eci

sio

n

Human Cognitive Capacity

1990 2000 2010 2020 IOM. 2007. Evidence-Based Medicine and the Changing Nature of Healthcare

Cognitive Systems reason, learn and

interact naturally with people to extend what humans or machines could do on their own.

Cognitive

Systems Era

Programmable

Systems Era Tabulating

Systems Era

You are here

Sensors & Devices

VoIP

Enterprise Data

Social Media

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Attributes of Cognitive Systems

cognitivecomputingconsortium.org

Information adept

Probabalistic

Meaning based

Dynamic, adaptive

Highly Integrated

Highly interactive

Uncertainty

Information Challenging:V3

volume, variety, velocity

Favorable Cost:Benefit

High Impact Potential

Uses for Cognitive Systems

Learning

Discovery

Training 16

Education

IBM Research

Advanced Image Recognition

Cognitive Applications

Discovery

Expert Decision Support

17

Price and Technology Access

18

PC Volumes

Wireless Service

SW, accessories

IT, HW, services

PCs, peripherals

Cell phone

Computer SW & Accessories

Computer Hardware & Services

Personal Computers

19

Bicycle Video

M-J. Sepúlveda, MD FACP

IBM Fellow & Vice President

Primary Care

Milestones in PC Transformation

Baucus

White Paper

1978

Alma Ata

Declaration

Adv. Medical Home

2007

Joint Principles

Medical Home

2006

MH Pilots

2002

TransforMed

2008

Obama Plan

PPACA 2010

NBGH Award

1967

“Medical Home” Coined

Standards Child Health Care

Council on Ped. Practice

IOM on PC

1978-79

“Medical Home” Concept

Hawaii Child Health Plan

Calvin Sia MD 1987 Surg. Gen. Report

Dr. Koop, MH for CSHCN Future Family Medicine

1992 Medical Home Policy Statement

2004

Pilots

Sepulveda et al Journal of Pediatrics. May 14 2016.

Specialist Visits

Well Child

Exams,

Vaccinations

Rx Fills ED Visits

Primary Care

Visits

Value

Better care,

same cost

Children Youth (N=25,950): Free Primary Care Visits

Sepulveda et al Submitted for Publication Dec 2016

Specialist

Visits

Preventive

Primary Care

Visits

Rx Fills ED Visits

Preventive

Services

Delivery

Value

(Better care,

lower cost)

Adults (N= 35,217): Free Primary Care Visits

Discovery: Creativity in Culinary Arts

http://www.research.ibm.com/software/IBMResearch/multimedia/Cognitive-Cooking-Fact-Sheet.pdf

IBM Research: Mobile, Solutions, and Mathematical Sciences 26

Recommended

Time: high velocity affects apertures of opportunity

Thinking: wear multiple lenses, try believing to see as well

Cognitive computing:

-systems of engagement

-stay tuned, monitor closely

28

Cognitive Computing Enablers

IoT