Coastal Adaptation Guide

8/8/2019 Coastal Adaptation Guide

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adapting

to coastal

climatechangea guidebook for

development

planners

MAY 2009

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ADAPTING TO COASTAL

CLIMATE CHANGE

A GUIDEBOOK FOR DEVELOPMENT

PLANNERS

U.S

.

DEPARTMENT OF C

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NAT

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ADAPTING TO COASTAL CLIMATE CHANGE

iii

table o contents

acknowledgements vi

preface vii

summary for policymakers viii

introduction 151.1 Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

1.2 Roadmap to the Guidebook . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

assess vulnerability 20

2.1 Global Climate Change and Threats to the Worlds Coasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

2.2 Vulnerability Assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25

2.3 Coastal Vulnerability Hot Spots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31

select course of action 34

3.1 Identiy Priorities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35

3.2 Defne Adaptation Goals and Objectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36

3.3 Adaptation Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38

3.4 Selecting Measures. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42

mainstream coastal adaptation 46

4.1 What is Mainstreaming? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 474.2 National and Regional Entry Points . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49

4.3 Sectoral Investments and Projects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51

4.4 Coastal Places . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53

4.5 Overcoming Barrier s and Obstacles to Successul Mainstreaming . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53

implement adaptation 57

5.1 Ensure Adequate Administrative and Institutional Capacity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58

5.2 Strengthen Legal Frameworks and Enorcement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58

5.3 Strengthen Personnel Capabilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59

5.4 Highlight Costs o Doing Nothing and Costs o Adaptation Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59

5.5 Develop Sustainable Financing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59

5.6 Plan or Externalities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60

5.7 Maintain Scientifc Basis or Policy and Monitoring . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61

5.8 Maintain an Inclusive and Participator y Process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 615.9 Select Technically Appropriate and Eective Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62

evaluate for adaptive management 64

6.1 Evaluation o Adaptations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65

6.2 Adapting Evaluation Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66

references 70

Annex A Adaptation Measures 72

contribution to development goals and addressing climate change impacts 73

functioning and healthy coastal ecosystems 74

1. Coastal Wetland Protection and Restoration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75

2. Marine Conservation Agreements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79

3. Marine Protected Areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83

4. Payment or Environmental Services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87

built environment is less exposed 90

1. Beach and Dune Nourishment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91

2. Building Standards . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95

3. Coastal Development Setbacks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98

4. Living Shorelines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102

5. Structural Shoreline Stabilization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106


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table o contents (continued)

diversified livelihoods 109

1. Fisheries Sector Good Practices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110

2. Mariculture Best Management Practices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115

3. Tourism Best Management Practices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118

human health and safety enhanced 1221. Community-based Disaster Risk Reduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123

2. Flood Hazard Mapping . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127

overarching planning and governance 132

1. Coastal Watershed Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133

2. Integrated Coastal Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138

3. Special Area Management Plan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144


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list o fgures

Figure 1.1 A coastal adaptation roadmap applies a climate lens to the ICM policy cycle often used by coastal practitioners

Figure 2.1 Vulnerability to sea level rise and storm surge

Figure 2.2 Vulnerability framework

Figure 3.1 Ordering coastal adaptation outcomes

Figure 3.2 Adaptation options related to the goals of the U.S. National Estuary Program.

Figure 4.1 How entry points reinforce each other and contribute to a more integrated strategy

Figure 4.2 Mainstreaming adaptation in coastal tourism

Figure 4.3 Adaptation can be mainstreamed within the national development strategy, sector strategies, or donor grants

Figure 6.1 Adaptive management process

list o tables

Table 2.1 A Summary of climate change observations and trends in the coastal zone

Table 2.2 Threats to the coastal environment

Table 2.3 Examples of exposed coastal assets and factors of sensitivity

Table 3.1 Examples of adaptation goals for coastal climate change

Table 3.2 Adaptat ion measures, goals, and climate change impacts

Table 4.1 An assessment of the national adaptation programme of action

Table 6.1 What motivates evaluation and what are the benefits

Table 6.2 Adaptation measures and adaptive management responses

acronyms

BMP Best Management Practice

CRC Coastal Resources Center

ICM Integrated Coastal Management

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

IRG International Resources Group

LDC Less Developed Countries

NAPA National Adaptation Programme of Action

PES Payments for Environmental Services

SCCRF Special Climate Change Fund

SIDS Small Island Developing States

UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

URI University of Rhode Island

USAID United States Agency for International Development

V&A Vulnerability and Adaptation


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vi

acknowledgements

Tis Guidebook was prepared under the leadership o the Global Climate Change eam and Water and Coastal eamo the United States Agency or International Development (USAID) Bureau or Economic Growth, Agriculture,and rade, in partnership with the Coastal Resources Center at the University o Rhode Island (URICRC), and theInternational Resources Group (IRG). Many others provided advice, content and ideas. In particular, we wish to

thank our Advisory Committee members whose initial input and periodic comments and contributions helped shapethe eort.

We also greatly appreciate the invaluable eedback rom coastal proessionals and practitioners around the world. Inparticular, we want to acknowledge the interest in and support o the Guidebook by participants o the ollowing: the4th Global Conerence on Oceans, Coasts, and Islands convened in Hanoi, Vietnam in April 2008; the EcoCostasNetwork meeting in Ecuador in May 2008; the 2008 Summer Institute in Advanced Coastal Management at URI;and the Workshop on Mainstreaming Climate Change Development Strategies, Programs and Projects held in Panamain October 2008.

Special thanks are extended to sta at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) or their input,expertise, and support to build local capacity in coastal adaptation.

Te Project eamcomprised o Richard Volk and John Furlow (USAID); Pamela Rubino, James obey, DonaldRobadue, Glenn Ricci, Lesley Squillante (URICRC); Glen Anderson, Yoon Kim and Kyung Kim (IRG)would alsolike to recognize by name the Advisory Committee members and the many practitioners who contributed adaptationmeasures and graphics, and who provided technical review and practical advice that has enhanced this Guidebook:

Ellik Adler, United Nations Environment Programme Kem Lowry, University o Hawaii

Amanda Babson, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Audra Luscher, U.S. NOAA Coastal Services Center

Carl Bruch, Environmental Law Institute Elizabeth Matthews, Palau Conservation Society

Virginia Burkett, U.S. Geological Survey Joseph Murphy, U.S. Embassy Fiji

Gillian Cambers, University o Puerto Sandra Nichols, Environmental Law InstituteRico Sea Grant College ProgramGwen Shaughnessy, Maryland Coastal Program

Hannah Campbell, Conservation International,ormerly with U.S. NOAA Climate Program Oce Sena De Silva, Network o Aquaculture Centres o Asia

Je DeBlieu, Te Nature Conservancy Adam Stein, NOAA Coastal Services Center

Bill Dennison, University o Maryland Robert Stickney, exas A&M University

Center or Environmental ScienceJessica roell, Environmental Law Institute

Lesley Ewing, Caliornia Coastal CommissionJay Udelhoven, Te Nature Conservancy

Serena Fortuna, United Nations Environmental ProgrammeLisa Vaughan, U.S. NOAA Climate Program Oce

Fathimath Ghina, UNESCO Laverne Walker, Coastal Zone Management Unit, St. LuciaKaren Jakubowski, Clean Air Cool Planet

Anne Walton, U.S. NOAA National

Zo Johnson, Maryland Department o Natural Resources Marine Sanctuary Program

Jetic Ljubomir, United Nations Environmental Programme Alan White, Te Nature Conservancy


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preface

Te challenges we all must ace in adapting to climate variability and change present themselves with increasingurgency. Nowhere will these challenges be greater than in the developing world where oten weak institutions andgovernance systems struggle to deal with mounting pressures rom population growth, inadequate inrastructure, anddiminishing or already depleted natural resources.

In this context, the unique ecosystem processes and extraordinary development pressures within the coastal zonerequire that development planners and the donors who assist with development give special urgency to the task ohelping to build resiliency against the impacts o climate change. Te changes are many and already underway. Teyinclude rising sea level, increasingly intense cyclones, altered precipitation and runo, elevated sea surace temperature,and ocean acidifcation.

Te decades ahead will witness increased numbers o people, inrastructure, and ecosystems at risk in the coastalzone. National and local leaders across all sectors must begin now to engage stakeholders in assessing vulnerabilityand designing adaptation strategies that are technically, fnancially, and politically achievable. Meanwhile, donors toomust work to protect their investments by incorporating analyses o climate variability and change into the design andimplementation o virtually every kind o development assistance program to be implemented within the coastal zone.

Tis Guidebook is both a tool in itsel and a link to other resources to help with those eorts. Te processes, tools,and resources that it contains are based on the inputs o numerous coastal planners, climate change experts, and otherdevelopment proessionals. It was prepared under the guidance o the Water eam and Global Climate Change eamo the U.S. Agency or International Development.

Te eective application o these tools, development o new techniques and sharing o lessons will be critical tomeet all o the myriad challenges o a ast evolving landscape/seascape o coastal climate change adaptation aroundthe world. We consider this a frst edition and welcome and encourage your comments, suggestions, and inputs orinclusion in subsequent editions.

Please address correspondence about the Guidebook to:

Te U.S. Agency or International DevelopmentGlobal Climate Change eamWashington, DC, USA [email protected]
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]


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summary or policymakers

Adapting to Coastal Climate Change: A Guidebook or Development Planners (the Guidebook) provides a detailedtreatment o climate concerns in coastal areas. Te Guidebook proposes an approach or assessing vulnerability toclimate change and climate variability, developing and implementing adaptation options, and integrating optionsinto programs, development plans, and projects at the national and local levels. Tis is known as a vulnerability and

adaptation or V&A approach. Te summary presented here is designed or policymakers and others who are interestedin the Guidebooks key messages and may review the ull version later or use the Guidebook as a reerence document.Te summary is organized by the steps in the V&A approach that is recommended in this Guidebook. Reerences orthe inormation provided in this summary are included in the main body o the Guidebook.

Tere is an unequivocal scientic consensus that the changes brought by climate change are already occurring andwill intensiy in the uture, likely resulting in signicant alteration o coastal ecosystems, coastal hazards, and liestylechanges or shers, coastal resource users, waterront property owners and coastal communities. Tese have arreaching impacts on a range o challenges or coastal resource managers. Dramatically stepped up eorts are neededto guide proactive adaptation actions that benet human and natural ecosystems or present and uture generations.

Step 1

Assess

vulnerability

Step 2

Select course

o action

Step 3Mainstream

coastal

adaptation

Step 4Implement

Adaptation

Step 5Evaluate or

adaptive

management

STEP 1. ASSESS VULNERABILITY

The assessment of vulnerability focuses on gaining an understanding of how climate variability and change

will impact coastal communities, the goods and services provided by natural resources, and human-built

infrastructure.

Vulnerability assessment or climate change in specic coastal regions considers three actors: 1) the nature

and magnitude o climate variability and change; 2) the human, capital, and natural assets that will beexposed to and impacted by climate change; and 3) the current capacity o coastal communities andecosystems to adapt to and cope with climate impacts.

Climate is changing in response to increased greenhouse gas emissions, and projections for the coming decades

paint a somber picture.

Tere is scientic consensus that increases in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere drive warmingtemperatures o air and sea, and that the worlds oceans acidiy as they absorb the carbon dioxide. Warmingo air and sea causes shits in precipitation patterns and hydrological cycles, sea level rise, and morerequent and severe extreme weather events (e.g., storms and storm surge). Tese eects are already being

witnessed in the worlds coastal regions and are projected to intensiy in years to come.

Climate change will impact the health, function and productivity of coastal ecosystems, thus impacting the

health and welfare of coastal communities and the billions of people that depend on these natural resources.

Climate changes will have signicant and immediate consequences or the worlds coasts, the goods andservices provided by coastal ecosystems, and coastal inhabitants. Tis includes accelerated coastal erosionand loss o land and property, fooding, saltwater intrusion, shits in the distribution and abundance ovaluable marine habitats, species and biodiversity, and the accelerated spread o exotic and invasive species.


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It may mean more requent coral bleaching and increased mortality, loss o coastal wetland ecosystems andshing grounds, and growth in the spread o marine dead zones.

Te ocean is also becoming more acidic (decreased seawater pH) as it absorbs atmospheric carbondioxide (CO

2). Ocean acidication has potential widespread eects on marine ecosystems. It may inhibit

calcication, which will threaten the survival o coralree ecosystems. It will inhibit the growth ocalcareous algae at the base o the ood web and o shellorming marine organisms (such as scallops),

and it will stunt the growth o calcied skeletons in many other marine organisms, including commercialsh species. Tese species changes then aect local sheries livelihoods and ood supplies or coastalcommunities.

Te ability o ecosystems and habitats to adapt to climate impacts can be increased by reducing otherstressors such as overshing and landbased pollution. Reducing these current stresses will increase theresilience or ability o the environment to adapt to uture impacts, thus reducing threats to human welare.

Coastal areas most vulnerable to climate change are low-lying islands, coastal areas and deltas; countries

subjected to hurricanes and typhoons; and less developed countries

Relative to other coastal areas, lowlying islands, including many Small Island Developing States (SIDS),

are more vulnerable to the impacts o climate change because they have relatively scarce natural resources(e.g., water resources, construction materials and physical space) and they have limited and high costtransportation options. Lowlying SIDS have little scope or adaptation and are particularly vulnerable tosea level rise and storm surge.

Less developed countries are vulnerable to climate change because o rapid population growth, much oit concentrated in coastal areas; high dependency on climatesensitive industries such as sheries, coastalagriculture and tourism; a degraded natural resource base; weak administration and governance systems;and poor transportation and communication inrastructure.

Low lying coastal areas and deltas are highly vulnerable to sea level rise, extreme weather events andstorm surge. Globally, at least 150 million people live within 1 meter o high tide level, and 250 million

live within 5 meters o high tide. At greatest risk are the densely populated Asian megadeltas o riversincluding the Yangtze (China), GangesBrahmaputra (Bangladesh), Mekong (Cambodia), and Irrawaddy(Myanmar). Other major megadeltas at risk are the Nile (Egypt), Niger (Arica), and Mississippi (USA).

Climate change combines with and amplifies non-climate stressors on coastal ecosystems.

Coastal ecosystems are already seriously stressed inmany areas o the world. Reasons include intense coastaldevelopment and overpopulation, poverty, internal confict,ragmentation and loss o habitat, overshing, pollution,and spread o invasive species. Tese nonclimate stressors

will impair the resilience o ecosystems, i.e., the ability othe ecosystem to maintain its integrity and to continue toprovide critical goods and services to coastal communities.

Mangroves, coral rees, estuaries, seagrass beds, dunecommunities and other systems on or near shorelines servecritical ecological unctions that are important to humansociety. Such unctions include sheries, storm protection,food mitigation, erosion control, water storage, groundwaterrecharge, pollution abatement, and retention and cycling onutrients and sediments. Healthy habitats unction as sel

Uncontrolled development along the coast results

in conicts over access, increased demands on

inrastructure, degraded water quality and increased

risks to natural hazards. Sinaloa, Mexico


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repairing natural inrastructure, in contrast to humanbuilt inrastructure, thus minimizing maintenancecosts. When these critical resources are compromised, coastal ecosystems are weakenedand weakened,unhealthy coastal ecosystems are less resilient to climate change and variability.

Adaptive capacity refers to the ability of society to plan for and respond to change in a way that makes it

better equipped to manage its exposure and sensitivity to climate change.

Adaptive capacity depends on economic wellbeing, ecological wellbeing, the extent o dependency onnatural resources, inrastructure (humanbuilt or natural), eectiveness o institutions and governancesystems, insurance, secure land tenure and mediation measures, and inormation and communicationsystems. A community with the capacity to adapt is likely to be more resistant to impacts or able to recoverrom stressul events and conditions.

Step 1

Assess

vulnerability

Step 2

Select course

o action

Step 3

Mainstream

coastal

adaptation

Step 4

Implement

Adaptation

Step 5

Evaluate or

adaptive

management

STEP 2: SELECT COURSE OF ACTION

Planned adaptation is strategic and aims to address the full range of coastal climate change hazards in ways

that meet social objectives.

In general, there are two types o adaptationreactive and planned. Reactive adaptations are the changesin policy and behavior that people and organizations adopt ater they have observed changes in climateand coastal risks. Tis Guidebook ocuses on planned adaptationthat which is strategic, intentional,proactive, and occurs at the societal level.

The selection of a course of action to address climate vulnerability involves the identification of adaptation

goals, and assessment of individual adaptation measures or measures bundled into a strategy.

Coastal areas may be subject to a variety o climate impacts. Tereore, it is useul to prioritize your climatevulnerabilities. Tis will help in selecting your adaptation options and course o action. It is important tocoordinate this with the decisionmaking procedures that govern the program, plan, or project or whichclimate is a concern. We urge policymakers to engage major stakeholders in setting adaptation goals,selecting criteria or and assessing adaptation options, and providing input into the nal selection process.Major categories o management goals common to adaptation programs in coastal areas include:

1) Maintain unctioning and healthy coastal ecosystems

2) Reduce exposure and vulnerability o the built environment

3) Strengthen governance rameworks or coastal adaptation

4) Maintain livelihood opportunities and diversiy options

5) Reduce risks to human health and saety


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A gallery of coastal adaptation measures has been

developed for the Guidebook. Many of these will be

familiar to coastal management professionalsthe

climate lens is new, but in most cases the tools are

not.

Te Guidebook includes practitioner bries on 17coastal adaptation measures and strategies. Each

brie describes the measures relevance, purpose andapplication to climate change, inormation and datarequirements, design considerations, suggestionsor improving likelihood o success, and list oresources. Te 17 bries were chosen by coastalpractitioners rom an initial list o 50 adaptationmeasures.

raditionally, practitioners would view many othese adaptation measures in terms o their potentialbenets in promoting coastal management goals.Applying a climate lens means that adaptation

measures are viewed in terms o how theyreduce impacts and/or improve the resilience ocommunities and ecosystems in the ace o climatechange and variability while promoting coastalmanagement goals. In other words, it meansplanning with a longer time scale and a wider rangeo possible variability in mind.

Criteria for evaluating adaptation measures consider technical effectiveness, costs, expected benefits, and

implementation characteristics.

Countries or coastal areas may share the same climate change issues. Yet, each has dierent circumstances(climate, natural resources, inrastructure, technological state, economy, governance, etc.) so the responsesto those climate change issues may vary. Coastal adaptations must be tailored to the local context throughan inclusive process that matches development goals with the climate change issues and the technicalcapabilities and the capacity o the institutions and community stakeholders o the place. Following are keycriteria or deciding the best adaptation option given the local context:

Technical eectiveness: will the adaptation option be eective in solving problems arising rom climatechange while also meeting current development or management goals?

Costs: what is the cost to implement the adaptation measure?

Benefts:what types (and magnitudes) o benets will be generated by the adaptation measure and whowill benet?

Implementation considerations: how easy is it to design and implement the option in terms o thelevel o skill required, inormation needed, and scale o implementation?

It is useul to distinguish between climate benets and nonclimate benets. Climate benets include suchthings as avoiding damages and their associated costs and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Nonclimatebenets are those that result under current climate conditions. An example is enorcing prohibitions onmining coral rees, an activity that exacerbates coastal erosion and reduces coastal protection. Adaptationsthat yield nonclimate benets greater than the costs o implementation are reerred to as no regrets

Adaptation measures are summarized as

practitioner bries in Annex A.


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options. Tis term implies society will have no regrets in implementing these measureseven i climatechange is less signicant than projected.

In general, except in intensely developed areas, adaptation options that favor ecosystem and living shoreline

approaches are recommended over hard structures to stabilize the shoreline.

Living shoreline approaches address erosion and fooding by providing or longterm protection, restoration

or enhancement o vegetated shoreline habitats. Such no regrets approachesi.e., approaches thatare benecial even in the absence o climate changeshould be a priority. Te use o natural livinginrastructure provides multiple benets while minimizing repair costs. Functional coastal ecosystems aremore resilient to climate change and variability. Tey also provide goods and services that are important tohuman society in the ace o climate change (sheries, livelihoods, ood security, storm protection, foodmitigation, shoreline natural deenses, erosion control, water storage, groundwater recharge, retentiono nutrients and sediments, and ltering o pollutants). Maintaining ecosystem biodiversity is critical toensuring healthy ecosystems and thus naturalresource dependent livelihoods, such as wild sheries.

Adaptation responses will often include bundles of adaptation measures and require additional considerations

in evaluating multiple measures.In evaluating and selecting the best combination o adaptation measures, policymakers and practitionersmight consider the ollowing:

Complements vs. substitutes: Ideally, bundles should include adaptation measures that arecomplementary to each other. Tis capitalizes on synergies and ensures that each measure adds benets.I measures are substitutes or each other, select and include in the bundle the measure that is leastcostly and/or provides the greatest net benets.

Budget constraints: Oten, there are limited nancial resources available to cover the costs oimplementation. In these situations, nocost and lowcost measures may be more attractive thanexpensive measures such as humanbuilt inrastructure. Adaptation is a continuous process, so we

recommend a phased approach when priority measures are not aordable.

Step 1

Assess

vulnerability

Step 2

Select course

o action

Step 3

Mainstream

coastal

adaptation

Step 4

Implement

Adaptation

Step 5

Evaluate or

adaptive

management

STEP 3: MAINSTREAM COASTAL ADAPTATION

Climate change adaptation on the coast must be understood as a fundamental challenge for managing coastal

resource uses and must be mainstreamed into coastal policy at all levels.Mainstreaming means that climate concerns and adaptation responses are integrated into relevantdevelopment policies, plans, programs, and projects at the national, subnational, and local scales. Nationalclimate change adaptation strategies are more eective when guidance on adaptation is mainstreamed intodevelopment and sectoral plans and strategies and is owned by those authorities responsible or preparingand implementing them.

Tere are many entry points or mainstreaming coastal adaptation. Tis Guidebook highlights three othese: 1) national or regional level public policy, 2) sectoral investments and projects, and 3) subnational,placebased initiatives. Each entry point oers challenges, creates new roles or citizens, the private sector


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and government, and can create new opportunities.Government must play a pivotal role in creating enablingpolicy, nancial and legal rameworks, capturing andsharing experience, and raising public awareness.

Guidelines and policies for mainstreaming climate concerns

and adaptation responses into capital investment plans andproject cycles are recommended in the face of climate

change.

Development banks, such as the Arican DevelopmentBank and the World Bank, are increasingly concernedthat a substantial share o investments are at risk romdirect impacts rom climate change, thereby increasingvulnerabilities or reducing the intended developmentbenets. Estimates o Development Banks portolio atrisk range rom 2540%. For example, inrastructure that cannot be adapted to withstand the impacts oclimate change may expose more people and assets to risk. Mainstreaming climate concerns into capital

investment plans and project cycle management entails integrating climate issues and adaptation prioritiesinto country strategies. Greater consideration must also be given to vulnerability and adaptation in projectdesigns, screening, selection and evaluation.

Engaging a broad group o stakeholdersthroughout

the process is key to successul adaptation.

A two-track approach combining local level, community-based adaptation with national level enabling policy,

finance and legal frameworks is an effective approach to adaptation implementation.

Successul mainstreaming requires reinorcing linkages between local and national level adaptation entrypoints. Government, together with nongovernment partners, must play a pivotal role in ostering theconnections across national, sectoral, and place entry points.

There may be resistance to mainstreaming climate adaptation. Coastal managers can draw upon their repertoire

of experience to formulate strategies to overcome such barriers.

Tere is oten inherent resistance to the introduction o any new policy idea. Because climate changeimpacts are cumulative and occur over the longterm, there may be little sense o urgency to act.Individuals and organizations may resist because o the uncertainties that surround climate changeand because they have dierent tolerance levels or the risks associated with taking action under suchuncertainties. Te Guidebook lists good practices or successul and sustained coastal adaptation thathave proven eective in coastal management worldwide and that can help in overcoming resistance tomainstreaming coastal adaptation.

Step 1Assess

vulnerability

Step 2Select course

o action

Step 3Mainstream

coastal

adaptation

Step 4Implement

Adaptation

Step 5Evaluate or

adaptive

management

STEP 4: IMPLEMENT ADAPTATION

Implementation of adaptation measures brings new challenges and potential conflicts. Practitioners and coastal

professionals need to be aware of these and address them proactively.


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Implementation challenges include: inadequate administrative, institutional, and sta capabilities; lack osustainable nancing or cost recovery; weak legal rameworks and enorcement; inormation gaps on thecosts o acting vs. not acting (doing nothing); maintaining scientic data and monitoring to sustain themeasures; unengaged political leadership and stakeholders; and poor technical eectiveness o the measures.Te Guidebook identies specic responses to each implementation challenge. Many o these challengescan be anticipated and addressed prior to implementationi.e., during the assessment, design, andmainstreaming steps o coastal adaptation.

Coastal practitioners and proessionals must be alert to implementation challenges and address themproactively as they become evident. Recommended actions include periodic program reviews at the nationalor local levels to ensure agencies and communities are aware o successes and ailures. Another action is toeducate and encourage the public and property owners to be active in the stakeholder process. Also, takeaction to keep coastal adaptation on the public agenda, and conduct monitoring and scientic studies toreduce uncertainty about the eectiveness o the measures being implemented.

Step 1

Assess

vulnerability

Step 2

Select course

o action

Step 3

Mainstream

coastal

adaptation

Step 4

Implement

Adaptation

Step 5

Evaluate or

adaptive

management

STEP 5: EVALUATE FOR ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT

Coastal adaptation is an on-going and iterative process that will benefit from periodic evaluation of performance

coupled with an adaptive management process to fine-tune implementation.

Once coastal adaptation measures are implemented, there will likely be considerable interest in how theyperorm. Policymakers will be keen to demonstrate that the measures are benecial to the citizenry. Tey

will also want to assuage stakeholders who have borne some o the costs o the measures. Evaluation isthe process o reviewing and analyzing all relevant data and inormation required to determine i the seto adaptation options are meeting expectations. I measures do not perorm according to expectations,they must be adjusted. Te process o refecting on and adjusting the course o action based on evaluationresults, new inormation, and changing conditions is reerred to as adaptive management.


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chapter 1

INTRODUCTION

15


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16

1.1 BACKGROUNDCoasts and the worlds oceans are crucial to lie on Earth,they support livelihoods, and are vital to the globaleconomy in many ways. Coastal ecosystems exist at theinterace between terrestrial and marine environments.Tey include some o the most diverse and dynamicenvironments on earth. Tis narrow band o the earths

surace attracts human populations because it is a ocalpoint or economic growthaccounting or a majorityshare o humanitys inrastructure, transportation andtrade, energy processing, tourism, and recreation.Coastal ecosystems provide a myriad o ecologicalgoods and services. Tey provide habitat and nurseriesor the majority o commercially important marine shand shellsh species, and provide ood security andlivelihoods or over 1 billion people. Tey oer stormsurge protection, erosion control, and food mitigation.Tey also help retain nutrients and sediments and lterpollutants. Tus, the socioeconomic and ecologicalimportance o the coastal zone is virtually unparalleled.

Considering that the majority o humans

reside along coasts, coastal regions have

become uniquely important to the well-

being o society and the need or proactive

action to adapt to climate changes is ever

more pressing.

Global climate change already impacts and willcontinue to impact coastal communities, ecosystems,and many acets o peoples lives in the coastal zone where approximately 2.7 billion peopleover 40%o the world's populationlive. Even without climatechange, coastal areas ace a litany o problems associatedwith population growth, habitat change, resource overexploitation and degradation, water pollution, andchanges in reshwater fows. Climate change is expectedto ampliy many o these and other stresses on coastal

areas. Tis in turn increases the need and urgency toinclude coastal adaptation as part o eective coastalmanagement. As a consequence o these realities,climate change is considered by many to be one o themost important challenges o the 21st century and apriority or immediate action or coastal areas.

In 2007, the Global Climate Change eam in theUnited States Agency or International Development(USAID) Bureau or Economic Growth, Agriculture

and rade developed guidance to help USAID Missionsand partners account or and address vulnerabilitiesto climate variability and change in their projectsand programs. Te document, Adapting to ClimateVariability and Change A Guidance Manual or

Development Planning (USAID, 2008), is structuredaround a sixstep vulnerability and adaptation (V&A)process1. Tis process helps planners and stakeholdersto assess vulnerability to climate variability and change,and to identiy, assess, select, implement, and evaluateadaptation options that reduce climate impacts.

Te V&A Manual was intended as general guidance onthe ull range o climate concerns and impacted sectors.It provides links to important sources o inormationand tools and oers a broad overview o methods andbest practices or conducting vulnerability assessments

and evaluating adaptation measures. Te V&A Manualincludes case studies illustrating some o these bestpractices.

Tis coastal adaptation Guidebook is a companiondocument to the V&A Manual and provides thepractitioner with more detailed and sectorspecic

1 The six steps are: 1) Screen or vulnerability; 2) Identiy

adaptations; 3) Conduct analysis; 4) Select course o action;

5)Implement adaptations; and 6) Evaluate adaptations


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INTRODUCTION

17

guidance or responding to climate variability andchange impacts on coastal areas. Te emphasis is ondeveloping country contexts.

Te Guidebooks primary goals are to:

Advance understanding o climate change impactsalong coasts, vulnerability, and approaches or

mainstreaming coastal adaptation measures intodevelopment policies, plans, and programs

Provide practical adaptation options or respondingto the impacts o climate variability and change onthe coast

Draw lessons rom experience on how to overcomeimplementation barriers and utilize an adaptivemanagement approach to coastal climate adaptation

ERMINOLOGY

Adaptation: Adjustment in natural or

human systems in response to actual or

expected climatic changes or their impacts,

so as to reduce harm or exploit benefcial

opportunities.

Climate change:Any change in weather

averaged over time due to natural variability or

because o human activity.

Climate variability:Variations in the mean

state and other statistics (such as standard

deviations, the occurrence o extremes, etc.)

o the climate on all temporal and spatial

scales beyond that o individual weather

events. Examples o climate variability include

extended droughts, oods, and conditions

that result rom periodic El Nio and La Niaevents.

Hazard Mitigation: Sustained action taken

to reduce or eliminate long-term risk to lie and

property rom a hazard event. Considered as

one o our phases o emergency management,

together with preparedness, response, and

recovery.

Mitigation:Within a climate change context,

mitigation is a human intervention to actively

reduce the production o greenhouse gasemissions (reducing energy consumption in

transport, construction, at home, at work etc.),

or to remove the gases rom the atmosphere

(sequestration)

Vulnerability: The degree to which a human

or natural system is susceptible to, or unable

to cope with, adverse eects o climate change.

Vulnerability is a unction o the character,

magnitude, and rate o climate variation to

which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its

adaptive capacity.

1.2 ROADMAP TOTHE GUIDEBOOKhe Guidebook ollows a common approach, orcycle, to program development as shown in Figure1.1. he approach is similar to the IntegratedCoastal Management (ICM) policy cycle oten usedby coastal practitioners and includes the ollowingsteps: vulnerability assessment (Step 1), planningand selection o a course o action (Step 2), ormaladoption or mainstreaming o adaptation actions (Step3), implementation (Step 4), and evaluation (Step 5).

Tis highlights a central message o the Guidebook:the process o coastal planning and action is notradically changed by applying a climate lens. While theprocess and good practices o planning and programmanagement apply equally to climate change as theydo to other coastal issues, the Guidebook will showthat some o the strategies o coastal managementare infuenced by climate change considerations. Forexample, there will be greater emphasis on naturebased adaptations and a longer planning horizon mustbe taken into account.

Each chapter o the Guidebook reers to one o theve steps o the program cycle. Chapter 2 ocuses ondiagnosis o coastal climate change impacts, trends, andvulnerability. Chapter 2 also summarizes current stressesand threats to coastal areas rom development pressuresand weaknesses in management.

Coastal communities are likely to ace a numbero climateimpacted issues and challengessomein the near term and others within the next several

years or decades. Chapter 3 provides guidance onsetting priorities and ormulating adaptation goals.It also provides a list o 17 adaptation measures andsummarizes the criteria or evaluating and selectingadaptations.


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18

Coastal adaptation requires a mandate and unding.Chapter 4 describes how coastal V&A can bemainstreamed into public planning and budgetingprocesses and policies at national, sub-national, andlocal scales. ICM experience has taught us that the list opotential obstacles to successul mainstreaming is long.Tis chapter presents lessons learned on overcoming

these obstacles and ofers strategies and preconditionsor sustained mainstreaming o coastal adaptation.

Ater the adaptation options have been evaluated andselected and once there is a ormal mandate and unding

to proceed, you are ready to take action. Chapter5 ocuses on making adaptation plans operationaland overcoming typical obstacles to successulimplementation.

Coastal adaptation is not a one-time event. It is anadaptive and iterative process. Chapter 6 ocuses

on evaluating the progress o the actions that areundertaken and adapting to changing conditions basedon valid reasons and circumstances.

Step 1

Assess

vulnerability

Chapter 2Assess climate

change

impacts,

trends and

vulnerability

Step 2

Select course

o action

Chapter 3Prioritize

issues and

defne

adaptation

goals

Analyze

and select

adaptation

measures

Step 3

Mainstream

coastal

adaptation

Chapter 4Mainstream

coastal

adaptation in

policy, plans,

and programs

Secure

mandate and

unding

Step 4

Implement

Adaptation

Chapter 5Implement

adaptations

Take actions to

build capacity

and avoid

implemenntation

barriers

Step 5

Evaluate or

adaptive

management

Chapter 6Evaluate

adaptations

Take adaptive

actions

Figure 1.1 A coastal adaptation

roadmap applies a climate lens to theICM policy cycle often used by coastalpractitioners


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INTRODUCTION

19

Each chapter o the Guidebook reers to one o theve steps o the program cycle. Chapter 2ocuses ondiagnosis o coastal climate change impacts, trends, andvulnerability. Chapter 2 also summarizes current stressesand threats to coastal areas rom development pressuresand weaknesses in management.

Coastal communities are likely to ace a numbero climateimpacted issues and challengessomein the near term and others within the next severalyears or decades. Chapter 3 provides guidance onsetting priorities and ormulating adaptation goals.It also provides a list o 17 adaptation measures andsummarizes the criteria or evaluating and selectingadaptations.

Coastal adaptation requires a mandate and unding.Chapter 4 describes how coastal V&A can bemainstreamed into public planning and budgeting

processes and policies at national, subnational, andlocal scales. ICM experience has taught us that the list opotential obstacles to successul mainstreaming is long.Tis chapter presents lessons learned on overcomingthese obstacles and oers strategies and preconditionsor sustained mainstreaming o coastal adaptation.

Ater the adaptation options have been evaluated andselected and once there is a ormal mandate and undingto proceed, you are ready to take action. Chapter5 ocuses on making adaptation plans operationaland overcoming typical obstacles to successulimplementation.

Coastal adaptation is not a onetime event. It is anadaptive and iterative process. Chapter 6 ocuseson evaluating the progress o the actions that areundertaken and adapting to changing conditions basedon valid reasons and circumstances.


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chapter 2

ASSESS VULNERABILITY

20


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21

his chapter irst provides an overview o climatechange observations and trends in the coastal zone, theirimpacts on coastal sectors, and the panoply o existingthreats to human and natural ecosystems in the coastalzone. Climate change only ampliies these threatsand urther increases the challenges o strategicallymanaging the coasts and seas and their extraordinary

but shrinking resources. Te chapter then explores ourcritical actors: climate change projections, exposureto climate change, sensitivity to climate change, andthe capacity o society to cope with actual or expectedclimate changes (adaptive capacity and resiliency ocoastal ecosystems). Coastal vulnerability hotspots arealso highlighted.

2.1 GLOBAL CLIMATE

CHANGE AND THREATS TO

THE WORLDS COASTSTere is scientic consensus that increases in greenhousegases in the atmosphere drive the warming o air andsea temperatures and cause the worlds oceans to acidiyrom the carbon dioxide they absorb. Even i greenhousegases were capped today, air and sea temperatureswill continue to rise as a result o past emissionsasgreenhouse gases in the atmosphere have a lietimeo between 10 and several thousand years. Warmingo air and sea induces precipitation change, sea levelrise, and more extreme weather events (e.g., stormsand sea surge). Te most signicant and immediate

consequences o these climate changes or the worldscoasts include coastal erosion, looding, drought,saltwater intrusion, and ecosystem change. Tere arealso other health, economic and social impacts.

Tese climate changes and impacts are already aectingcoastal areas and ecosystems and projections or thecoming decades paint a somber picture. able 2.1summarizes observations and trends o the eectso increased greenhouse gases on coastal and oceansystems.

Rising sealevel poses a severe threat to countrieswhere their coastal regions have heavy concentrations

o population and economic activity. Trough the20th century, global rise o sea level contributed toincreased coastal inundation, erosion and ecosystemloss (IPCC, 2007a). Until recently, studies o sea levelrise typically predicted a 01 meter rise during the 21stcentury. For example, the Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change (IPCC) anticipates that sea level willrise by 0.6 m or more by 2100 (IPCC, 2007c). Oceanthermal expansion was expected to be the dominatingactor behind this rise. However, new data on rates odeglaciation (the uncovering o land previously coveredby a glacier) in Greenland and Antarctica suggest thatglacial melt may play a signicant role in creating aneven greater rise in sea leveli.e., 13 meters in thiscentury (Dasgupta et al., 2007). A rise o this amountwould displace hundreds o millions o people in thedeveloping world.

Sea level rise and other changes brought on by climatechange can aect landbased activities (see Figure 2.1)and coastal ecosystems, especially wetlands and coralrees, and have serious implications or the wellbeingo societies dependent on coastal ecosystems or goodsand services. Rises in marine/coastal water suracetemperatures lead to the bleaching and widespreadmortality o coral rees. Further, saltwater will displaceor at least intrude coastal aquiers; and estuarinesystems will likely become more brackish. Alterationsto estuarine and marine ecosystems will have potentially

severe impacts on sheries and the goods and servicesprovided by marine and coastal biodiversity.

As more carbon dioxide (CO2) dissolves in the oceans,

they become more acidic (decreased seawater pH). Tiscreates the potential or widespread eects on marineecosystems. It may inhibit calcication, which willthreaten the survival o coralree ecosystems. It willinhibit the growth o calcareous algae at the base o theood web and o shellorming marine organisms (such

VULNERABILIY ASSESSMEN

Assess climate change projections

Assess exposure to climate change

Assess sensitivity to climate change

Assess health o coastal habitats and

ecosystems

Assess adaptive capacity

A 0.5 C increase in sea surace temperature

is associated with a 40 percent increase in

hurricane requency and activity. Saunders and

Lea, Nature, January 29, 2008


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able 2.1 A Summary o climate change observations and trends in the coastal zone

Coastal Impact Observations Projected Trends

Sea Level Rise

For the 20th century, sea levels rose at a rate o 1.7 to1.8 mm/yr

In the last decade, the worldwide average rate wasmeasured to be 3.0 mm/yr

Coastal erosion is increasingly observed around theworld; it can be related to either sea level rise orsubsidence, or both

Sea levels are expected to rise by at least 0.6 metersby the centurys end; glacial melt is expected to

increase this riseCoastal ooding could grow tenold or more by the2080s, aecting more than 100 million people per yeardue to sea-level rise, especially in Southeast Asia

It is projected that seawater intrusion due to sea-level rise could severely aect aquaculture in heavily-populated mega-deltas, such as in Southeast Asia

A one-meter rise in sea level could inundate 17%o Bangladesh and completely ood the Republic oMaldives, reduce Bangladeshs rice arming land by haland aect millions o livelihoods

A 2C increase in temperature could result in the losso a number o island states

Sea Surface

Temperature

Change

Between 1970 and 2004, sea surace temperatures

around the planet rose between 0.2-1.0C, with amean increase o 0.6C

The Caribbean Sea has warmed by 1.5C in the last100 years

Observations since 1961 show that the ocean hasbeen absorbing more than 80% o the heat added to

the climate system

Changes in water temperature caused wide scale coralbleaching in the Asia region, damaging as much as 75-100% o coral in the Philippines in 1998

By 2100, temperatures are projected to rise in thetropical Atlantic (2-4C), Pacifc (1.5-3.5C) and Indian(3C) Oceans

Increases in sea surace temperature o about 1-3Care projected to result in more requent coralbleaching events and widespread mor tality

Studies project that with a 1C increase in sea suracetemperatures, all coral rees in the Great Barr ier Ree,Southeast Asia and the Car ibbean could be bleached

Increased

Frequencyof Extreme

Weather

Events

Increases in category 4 and 5 tropical cyclones,hurricanes and typhoons during the 20th century havebeen reported

Tropical cyclone activity has increased since 1970, witha trend towards longer lived storms and storms o

greater intensity

Mass mortality o mangrove species in the Caribbeanhas been attributed to the increased requencies ohurricanes in the region

El Nio events have become more requent, persistentand intense during the last 20 years compared to theprevious 100

Models project a likely increase o peak windintensities and increased mean and peak near-storm

precipitation in uture tropical cyclones

The population exposed to ooding by storm surgeswill increase over the 21st century, especially in South,Southeast and East Asia

Precipitation

Change

Precipitation has increased by up to 10% in theNorthern Hemisphere and decreased in otherregions (e.g., North and West Arica, parts o theMediterranean and the Car ibbean)

The requency and severity o drought has increased insome regions, such as par ts o Asia and Arica

Very dry areas have more than doubled since the

1970sAustralia incurred over US$13 billion in droughtdamage between 1982-2003

Projections or Latin America show a general yearround drop in seasonal precipitation o up to 60%with the greatest eects elt in Mexico and CentralAmerica

Precipitation change is very likely to increase therequency o ash oods and large-area oods in manyregions

In Tarawa, Kiribati, it is projected that drought damagescould to reach 18% o the gross domestic product by2050

Ocean

Acidification Since 1750, an average decrease in pH o 0.1 units has

been observed

It is projected that the pH o the worlds oceans couldall by up to a ur ther 0.3 0.4 units by 2100, resultingin the lowest ocean pH levels in 20 million years

Sources: IPCC, 2007a, b; IUCN, 2007.


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as scallops), and it will stunt thegrowth o calcied skeletons in manyother marine organisms, includingcommercial sh species.

Rising sealevel coupled withincreased sea surace temperatures

is expected to contribute to morerequent and severe extreme weatherevents, such as coastal storms. Tese,in turn, will generate larger waves,storm surges, and increased coastalerosion. Annually, about 120 millionpeople are exposed to tropical cyclonehazards alone; storms killed 250,000people between 1980 and 2000(IPCC, 2007a).

Te recent human tragedies o the

December 2004 Indian Oceantsunami, Hurricane Katrina (United States, August2005), Cyclone Sidr (Bangladesh, November 2007) andthe Cyclone Nargis (Myanmar, May 2008) prove thatcoastal calamities can overwhelm resources and disasterresponses o developed and less developed nations alike.Each coastal disaster provides tangible examples o thepotential impacts that may unold during the nextcentury as a result o global warming and associated sealevel rise. As real disasters unold around us, the needor global action today becomes ever more obvious andpressing.

Rainall patterns are also changing and the eectso El Nio and La Nia episodes have worsened.Tis has resulted in increased cyclones, fooding anddrought cycles. Runo rom more intense precipitation

and changes in seasonal reshwater fows in manycoastal environments can result in broad ecosystemchanges. Tis includes changes in coastal erosion andsedimentation to which mangroves, estuaries, and coralrees are particularly vulnerable. Meanwhile, nutrientrich runo under conditions o higher sea suracetemperature will likely promote coastal hypoxia orseasonal hypoxic events. Changing weather patternsaect the distribution and range o species and disruptthe natural balance o many ecosystems and this has

potential impacts on sheries. When bacteria, viruses,mosquitoes or other disease vectors change theirgeographical range as a result o global warming,diseases also spread.

Figure 2.1 Vulnerability to sea level rise and storm surge

Source: Maryland Commission on Climate Change,Adaptation & Response Working Group. 2008

Erosion impacts both public and private investments which

are oten built too close to the shore or do not consider

appropriate building techniques or dynamic shorelines.

CORAL REEFS AND SEASURFACE EMPERAURE RISE

Scientists estimate the world has already lost

30% o its coral rees, mostly rom the eects

o overfshing, nutrient pollution, and habitatconversion, but coral bleaching and increasingly

acidic seasboth associated with climate

changeare exacerbating these eects and

pushing many coral rees over the edge. With

climate change, more than 80% o the worlds

coral rees may die within decades.

Sources: Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2007

and Nelleman, et al., 2008


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In short, climate change is increasing the requencyo natural disasters with overarching impacts on thehealth and resilience o coastal ecosystems and theglobal economy. Sea level rise; more requent andsevere extreme weather events; increased looding;and the degradation o reshwater, sheries and othercoastal resources could impact hundreds o millions o

people. Te socioeconomic costs on coasts will escalate(IPCC, 2007a). Tis occurs at a time when there is anever increasing human dependence on coastal resourcesand growing populations in the coastal zone. In someregions already stressed with overpopulation, poverty,internal confict, resource overuse and the spread odisease, these impacts rom climate change can bedevastating.

able 2.2 lists the many impacts o climate changeon coastal sectors and concerns. It highlights that the worlds coastal regions are already under assault as a

result o coastal development patterns and habitat loss,overshing, pollution, and other environmentallydamaging activities. Climatic changes combine with

and ampliy existing nonclimate stressors to make suchcoastal communities even more vulnerable.

Mangroves, coral rees, estuaries, seagrass beds, dunecommunitiesand the rich biodiversity provided bythese and other systems on or near shorelines servecritical ecological unctions that are important to human

society in the ace o climate change. For example, theyserve as vital nurseries and habitat or sheries, andprovide ood security and livelihoods or over one billionpeople; provide protection rom storms and wave surges;reduce impacts rom fooding; provide shoreline naturaldeenses; control erosion; provide water storage andgroundwater recharge; retain nutrients and sediments;and lter pollutants. When these critical resources arecompromised, coastal ecosystems become weakened andunhealthy and are less resilient to the eects o climatechange and variability. Hence, an important element oany adaptation strategy is to identiy and reduce those

humanbased stresses on coastal ecosystems that can becontrolled. By doing this, we can work with nature toincrease ecosystem resilience and thereby increase theability o coasts to cope with climate change.

able 2.2 Treats to the coastal environment

Sector Climate Change Threats Other Human Threats

Coral Reefs,

Coastal

Wetlands and

Ecosystems

Loss o coral rees rom coral bleaching and oceanacidification

Loss or migration of coastal wetland ecosystems,including salt mar shes and mangroves

Runo rom more intense precipitation causingcoastal erosion, and sedimentation adversely aectingestuaries and coral rees

Nutrient rich runo under conditions o higherseasurface temperature promoting coastal hypoxia andmarine dead zones

Change in the distribution and abundance ocommercially valuable marine species

Increased spread oexotic and invasive species

30 percent o the worlds coral reefs have been lostas a consequence o overfshing, pollution, and habitatdestruction

Intense coastal development and habitat loss

Pollution and marine dead zonesConversion of mangroves and wetlands ormariculture

Disrupt ion o the quantity, quality, and timing ofreshwater inflows to estuaries

Damage to seagrass beds rom sedimentation,recreational boating, fshing and tourism

Coral mining or construction and lime making

Oil spills rom shipping

Spread oinvasive species

Coastal reinorcement disrupts natural shorelineprocesses

Sand and gravel mining o riverbeds and beaches

Capture

Fisheries

Overall decline in ocean productivity

Eutrophication and coral mortality leading to reducedfsh catch

Loss or shifts in critical fish habitat

Temperature shifts causing migration o fshes

Extreme events, temperature increases and oxygendepletion reducing spawning areas in some regions

Temperature changes aecting the abundance anddistribution o marine pathogens

Ocean acidification and increases in temperaturedamaging coral rees

Over-harvesting

Destructive fishing practices (e.g., bottom trawling,dynamite fshing, beach seining)

Land-based sources opollution (sewage, industrialwaste, nutrient runo, etc.)

Sedimentation o coastal systems rom land-basedsources


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Sector Climate Change Threats Other Human Threats

Mariculture

Increases in water temperature could result inunpredictable changes in culture productivity

Environmental changes could increase stress andvulnerability to pathogens and parasites in culturedorganisms

Overall decline in ocean productivity reduces supplieso wild fsh used or fsh meal or mariculture sector

Changes in weather patterns and extreme weatherevents reduce productivity and damage operations(loss o inrastructure and stock)

Overexploitation o juveniles and larvae seed stockor fsh arms

Release o chemicals, nutrients and sediment in pondeuents

Spreading of pathogens and disease to localecosystems and neighboring culture operations

Loss of protective habitats rom improper siting omariculture acilities

Recreation

and Tourism

Storms, erosion, and precipitation damaginginrastructure and causing losses to beaches

Compromised water quality and increasing beachclosures

Increases in tourism insurance costs on high-riskcoasts

Improper siting o tourist acilities

Alteration o the shoreline, coastal processes andhabitat

Strain on freshwater resources or tourist acilities

Marine pollution and habitat disruption romrecreational boating

Freshwater

Resources

Saltwater intrusion o reshwater sources

Encroachment o saltwater into estuaries and coastalrivers

Waves and storm surges reaching urther inland,

increasing coastal inundation and floodingDecreased precipitation, enhancing saltwater intrusion,and exacerbating water supply problems

Discharge o untreated sewage and chemicalcontamination o coastal waters

Unregulated freshwater extraction and withdrawal ogroundwater

Upstream dams

Enlargement and dredging o waterways

Human

Settlements

Coastal inundation causing relocation inland

Building and inrastructure damage rom increasingcoastal storm intensity and ood exposure

Sea level rise raising water levels during storm surge

Reduced clearance under bridges

Overtopping o coastal deense structures

Sea level rise, erosion, and extreme weather eventsleading to degradation o natural coastal deensestructures

Rapid increase in coastal development projected toimpact 91% o all inhabited coasts by 2050

Inappropriate siting o inrastructure

Shoreline armoring

Habitat conversion and biodiversity loss

Human Health

Heat stress rom extremely hot periods

Injuries, illness, and loss o lives due to extremeweather events

Malnutrition and ood shortages during extremeevents

Increased spread o vector-borne disease (dengueever and malaria), waterborne diseases (diarrhea) and

toxic algae (ciguatera)

Pollution and water contamination

Conflict

Coastal land loss leading to coastal land and resourcescarcity or loss, and human migration

Water use conicts due to scarcity

Population migration to urban areas as oceanproductivity and ood availability declines and fshersare displaced

Displacement and loss o shore access resulting romtourism and coastal development

Sources: IPCC, 2007a, b; IUCN, 2007

2.2 VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

Assessing a coastal areas vulnerability to the impacts oclimate change involves understanding: 1) the climateprojections or a given region or locale, 2) what is atrisk (climate change exposure and sensitivity), and 3)

the capacity o society to cope with the expected oractual climate changes (adaptive capacity). Combined,these three actors dene the vulnerability o peoplein a place to climate change. Figure 2.1 illustrates thisrelationship, which is described in the subsequent oursubsections.


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Figure 2.2 Vulnerability ramework

CLIMATE

CHANGE

projections and

trends

SENSITIVITY

The degree to

which the coast

andpeople areimpacted

EXPOSURE

Types and amount

o assets at risk

POTENTIAL

IMPACT

That may occur

without planned

adaptation

ADAPTIVE

CAPACITY

Ability to cope

with actual or

expected changes

VULNERABILITY

Source: Adapted rom Allison, 2007.

2.2.1 ASSESSING CLIMATE

PROJECTIONS FOR A COASTAL AREAailoring adaptation measures to climate changerequires inormation on climate processes and impactsor specic coastal areas over a timerame much longerthan the typical 510 years used or planning and policy.When assessing vulnerability and what to do about it,it is reasonable to use a 100 year timeramesince we

know climate change impacts will grow stronger withtime.

Successul adaptation requires setting clear geographicboundaries within which to ocus the assessment andactions. Tis is especially dicult in coastal areas, butit is important. Here, the interconnectedness o issuesis amplied by the fows o water rom rivers andocean currents. A tendency is to incorporate too manyadaptation elements. Good practices in coastal climatechange adaptation include:

Match boundaries to issues o concern

I issues are rooted in the larger watershed, theanalysis and possibly the implementation must bebroader, but avoid overextending the scope o theeort

Dierentiate between boundaries or analysis andthose or policymaking and action (the latter mustremain ocused and is narrower) and work acrosspolitical boundaries when necessary

Understand inshore ocean currents so that, orexample, an analysis o biological vulnerabilityincludes consideration o the dispersal patterns oimportant larvae in the assessment areas and actions

Recognize the temporal and spatial scope opopulationse.g., coastal populations requentlyengage in seasonal employment as shers, armers,crew on ships; and the number o people in seaside

resorts changes dramatically between high and lowseasons

Recognize the inherent dynamics o the naturalenvironment, such as seasonal and interannualvariations in beach sand movement, and sh stockabundance and structure

Larger scale climate change models and projections,such as those o the IPCC, as well as online regionalmapping tools and downscaling models (e.g., theSERVIR Climate Mapper http://www.iagt.org/

downloads.aspx#svorhttp://www.servir.net/ and thePRECIS Regional Climate Modeling System http://precis.metoice.com/ ) provide a starting point tounderstand an overall context, but lack the resolutionand specicity needed to assess the vulnerability ospecic coastal areas.

hey can, however, provide a starting point romwhich to overlay local knowledge on past and currentclimate trends or the specic place. For example, localknowledge can help answer the basic question: Has
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the requency, magnitude, or timing o precipitation,extreme weather events and other climate impactschanged in the last several decades? A review o historicrecords or climate variability and hazard events in aspecic area can also help validate the projections.Spatial data and maps to visualize biophysical impacts(e.g., shoreline, storm surge, and fooding maps) alsoaid in this exercise.

o develop climate change projections or a coastal area,assess available inormation and ormulate assumptionsto create scenarios that refect a range o low to highdegrees o change. Stakeholders can use these scenarios toassess vulnerabilities and identiy issues and adaptationmeasures. Scenarios can also help move dialogue roma debate about exactlyhowthe climate will change to adiscussion among key stakeholders, experts and projectsta on the implicationso the dierent scenarios (high,medium, low change). Projections should includechanges in temperature, precipitation, sea level rise andsevere storm events along the coastal watershed (bays,

estuaries, nearshore currents and rivers).

At the end o this assessment phase, there should be twoor more projections o climate change and the potentialimpacts o each to the environment. Tere should alsobe a constituency o stakeholders who understand thecontext o the place relative to climate change.

At this point, it is useul to prepare an issue statementthat provides a concise and actual description o the

climate change challenges that aect the community.All stakeholders should contribute to the statement toensure there is shared understanding o the problem. Anexample might look like:

Greater requency and intensity o storms on theisland o Antigua puts at risk the health and saety o

the population and inrastructure. It is in the longterminterest o the community to take measures to increasestorm hazard preparedness and resilience.

USE BES AVAILABLEINFORMAION ANDRADIIONAL KNOWLEDGE

By integrating the best available knowledge

and involving local communities, it is possible

to take responsible action in situationswhere there are uncer tainties and imperect

inormation. Following the precautionary

approach, actions should not be impeded

by an absence o ull scientifc certainty. A

skillul adaptation approach is to look at the

trends suggested by existing models along

with the trends that are beginning to show

themselves in the region in question and to

plan accordingly. Trends will continue to change

and emerge or generations to comeeven

should mitigation eorts greatly reduce global

greenhouse gas emissions.

2.2.2 ASSESSING EXPOSURE

TO CLIMATE CHANGESExposure is dened as the types o valued assets thatare at risk o being impacted by changes in the climatesystem as well as by ocean acidication. Tese assetsinclude social assets (people, health, education),economic assets (property, inrastructure, and income),

and ecological assets (natural resources and ecologicalservices).

o select a course o action or adapting to climatechange, communities need to answer several questions,such as: What are the most important assets thatare at risk? What is the threshold at which impactswill occur? For example, in amboko, the SolomonIslandswhere coastal communities are exposed toseasonal loodingcommunitylevel assessmentsidentied drinking water as the most valued asset(IFRC, 2005).

When determining the most important assets exposedto climate change risks consider:

Impact to critical systems: Is a vital ood (e.g., shery),saety or economic asset at risk?

SPAIAL DAA

Maps and measurements o coastal areas are

invaluable to understand how climate impacts

will play out.

Shorelinemappingcoastalelevation,sea

level rise projections, erosion rates, storm

surge inundation, land use and land cover

Socioeconomiccontextcoastalresource

uses, demographics, development density,

and administrative boundaries


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Attitudes towards risk: What is the communityslevel o risk perception and tolerancee.g., coastalcommunities with tourism may perceive erodingbeaches as a higher risk than those without tourism.

Impacts on current government/stakeholder priorities:Does the potential impact put a major economicdevelopment priority at risk? Will there be an impacton a social problem or which signicant resourceshave already been allocated?

Level o certainty about the projected consequence oclimate change: I there is high uncertainty about the

likelihood o a potential risk, exposure to the riskmay be considered a low priority.

Reversibility o changes that may occur in the absenceo eective management response: Can the asset berecovered ater being impacted? I not, the issuemight be a high priority. An example is a coral ree

ecosystem. Once the coral animals die, the reestructure breaks down with no easy way to regainthe ecological goods and services o habitat, sheries,tourism, and storm protection.

2.2.3 ASSESSING SENSITIVITY

TO CLIMATE CHANGETe potential impact o climate change is determinedby an assets level o exposure and its sensitivityi.e.,the degree o likely damagei exposed to climatechange. For example, 100 houses along the coast may

be exposed to fooding. However, the 60% that are builton raised oundations are less sensitive to damage romfood waters. able 2.3 highlights assets and actorsthat can make them sensitive to the impacts o climatechange.

Healthy ecosystems and social groups have signicantability to absorb impacts. An example o this isVietnam, which experiences eight to 10 major coastalstorms annually. idal fooding associated with thesestorms usually leads to the breaching o sea dykes andeconomic losses to the local population. o protectcoastal assets and improve livelihoods, the Vietnam RedCross has been planting and protecting thousands ohectares o mangrove orests along the northeast coast

able 2.3 Examples o exposed coastal assets and actors o sensitivity

Groupings Coastal Assets Exposed Dimensions of Sensitivity

SocialPeople, health, education, sanitation, historic

and cultural assets, social capital

Material assets and savings, secure land tenure,

community cohesiveness, the state o public

health, sanitation conditions in the community

Built environment Property and coastal inrastructure, ports and shipping

Siting o buildings and coastal inrastructure

and construction methods, availability o

insurance systems and emergency unds

Ecological

inrastructure

Natural resources, wildlie, coastal watersheds,

ecological values, protected areas, unique

ecosystems and landscape/seascape amenities

Existing condition and health o coastal ecosystems

and natural barriers to coastal ooding, abundance

and variety o natural resources and unique

ecosystems, quality o coastal stewardship eor ts

Source: Adapted rom Kaiser, 2006

SERVIR can integrate and downscale global inormation, assess

vulnerabilities rom natural hazards in real time, and evaluate

past and uture climate trends, as seen here in this example o

a CATHALAC/USAID study o regional biodiversity and climate

change. For more inormation go to www.servir.net
http://www.servir.net/http://www.servir.net/


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o Vietnam since 1994. Te mangroves have reducedthe cost o dyke maintenance by millions o dollarsannually and reduced damages rom coastal storms.Similarly, ater the Indian Ocean sunami, a regionaleort was initiated to create coastal Green Zones andprotect mangrove orests as buers.

o assess the sensitivity o coastal assets exposed toclimate change, it is useul to answer the ollowingquestions:

How and to what degree were social, economic and

ecological assets aected by past climate conditionsand coastal hazard events?

What specic characteristics make groups or systemssensitive?

Was everyone equally impacted? I not, what were thedierences between various individuals and groups?

What is the sensitivity o nonexposed assets? Forexample, agriculture activities that take place awayrom the coast may rely on a highly exposed andsensitive coastal road or port or export. Losing thistransportation asset could result in a loss in the valueo the agricultural assets.

Answers to these types o questions help in estimatingthe likelihood and degree o potential impacts tosystems and assets. Tey also help in identiying speciccharacteristics that make coastal assets vulnerable/sensitive and the thresholds at which impacts will likelyoccur. For each projection, assess what is exposed andits sensitivity to various degrees o climate change. Youcan then estimate the impacts by collecting data on thecosts o the assets, number o people or inrastructurethat will be exposed.

Resilienceto coastal hazards and adaptive

capacity are linked. High levels o adaptivecapacity lead to an increased likelihood o

being able to absorb impacts o climate

change and rebound. The Coastal Community

Resilience Guidebook provides benchmarks

and a methodology or conducting resilience

assessments in the coastal context. (USAID,

2007)

Swimming lessons or women in Zanzibar is important

or their new mar iculture livelihood venture. This also

builds their adaptive capacity to survive i their community

were to be hit by a large storm surge or tsunami.

2.2.4 ASSESSINGADAPTIVE CAPACITY Adaptive capacity reers to the ability o society tochange in a way that makes it better equipped tomanage its exposure and/or sensitivity to climaticinfuences. A community with the capacities to adaptis likely to be more resilient or able to recover romstressul events and conditions (see text box). Reerringback to Figure 2.1, it is the rst two actors, exposureand sensitivity, that dictate the gross vulnerability o acoastal community and its potential susceptibility to

adverse impacts. Te third actor, adaptive capacity,refects a communitys ability to manage, and therebyreduce, gross vulnerability.

When you look at a communitys exposure, sensitivity,and adaptive capacity as a whole, the result is netvulnerability. Net vulnerability is the ability o acommunity to manage risk and thus minimize orprevent potential impacts. For example, a coastalregion could have high gross vulnerability, but relativelymoderate net vulnerability as a result o its high adaptivecapacity. Te reverse is also possiblei.e., a coastal area

with low gross vulnerability may be compromised by itslimited degree o adaptive capacity, thereby increasingits net vulnerability.

A broad range o actors refect adaptive capacity:

Political leadership and commitment

Resource availability (e.g., human, physical,technological, and nancial)


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Institutional and governance networks andcompetence

Social capital and equity

Inormation technologies and communicationsystems

Health o environment

here are many studies with lists o determinantso adaptive capacity. Most indicators are ocused onnational scale actors such as gross domestic product,

poverty indices and demographics. Tese indicators arehelpul or comparative purposes, but not very useulor local decisionmaking. On a practical level, the aim

o assessing adaptive capacity is to answer questionssuch as:

How well do community members work togetheron coastal development planning and coastalmanagement, including coastal hazards?

What practices are currently employed to cope with

natural hazards? Who is responsible or developingand implementing such measures? How eective arethey?

Are the public and decisionmakers inormed andengaged?

Do most people rely on the same activity or theirlivelihoods? For example, does everyone rely onshing or agriculture, such that a single event coulddestroy the livelihoods o many in the community orcountry?

In an emergency, are there multiple means ocommunicating or transporting people andsupplies? Or will damage to a single road, bridge, ortelecommunications hub isolate a community?

How healthy are the ecosystems and how well arenatural resources managed?

Adaptive capacity is not evenly distributed across andwithin societies. Also, wealthy countries have greateradaptive capacity than poorer countries (Nicholset al., 2007). Tis reality o adaptive capacity hasbeen termed the climate divide (see text boxto the let). In this sense, climate change is verymuch a development issue. Also within countries,it is the case that women and poor socioeconomicgroups have less adaptive capacity and are the mostvulnerable (see text box on next page).

Assessing the adaptive capacity o a place or sectorhelps in understanding why vulnerability exists in therst place. o reduce vulnerability, stakeholders mustunderstand its root causes. Tese are much deeper

societal issues than, or example, poorly constructedhouses being located in areas o coastal erosion. Rootcauses might include poverty, insecure property rights,natural resource dependency, degraded resources, andweaknesses in institutions and political assets (Adger,1999). Adaptive capacity can be strengthened throughpolicies that enhance social and economic equity,reduce poverty, improve natural resources and coastalmanagement, increase public participation, generateuseul and actionable inor

Documents

Coastal Adaptation Guide